Lynching Liaisons - The End

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Sat Jun 08, 2013 4:33 am

WTH are you two doing up so late? I know I just got off 2nd shift 2 hours ago and can't sleep.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Sat Jun 08, 2013 8:56 am

triggercut wrote:
theohall wrote:Last one for tonight...

I am very interested in hearing Grundbegriff's take on this. His poetry has been very astute, IMO.
Yeah, his one and only accuse in the game was spot on.

LordMortis groks (so does bb)
My formula, if such it be:
A patsy choose to take the fall,
Invoke the wrath of one and all,
Accumulate some worthy lore,
Push to the brink, but seldom more,
And then, upon that basis rich,
Select a better-grounded... target.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Sat Jun 08, 2013 9:57 am

So Grund is asking a villager to take the fall..

I nominate Lord Mortis - already accused.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Sat Jun 08, 2013 10:55 am

Grundbegriff wrote:
triggercut wrote:
theohall wrote:Last one for tonight...

I am very interested in hearing Grundbegriff's take on this. His poetry has been very astute, IMO.
Yeah, his one and only accuse in the game was spot on.
LordMortis groks (so does bb)
My formula, if such it be:
A patsy choose to take the fall,
Invoke the wrath of one and all,
Accumulate some worthy lore,
Push to the brink, but seldom more,
And then, upon that basis rich,
Select a better-grounded... bitch.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Sat Jun 08, 2013 10:56 am

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Sat Jun 08, 2013 12:29 pm

bb2112 wrote:FTFY

So you want to be lynched? Me thinks we can save the Berserker wolf for last.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Sat Jun 08, 2013 3:17 pm

Do what you gotta do, theo. You are under LL protection for now. I'm sure that will change. As far as targets go I'm as as good as any and better than that at 8 or nine of them and if there's serious doubt about me then killing me sooner is better than later. Vorret, scoop, and I are the best picks for today IMO, so sending me down is no big deal.

No matter what happens tomorrow leaves the village in great shape.

Things still look the same from my perspective:

bb2112
vorret
theo
tru1cy
lassr
Grund no idea what's up which is how I am sure he likes it
Guapo's getting sneaky
RMC is fading to the background
Scoop

The field

LL
lordmortis

Contingent on Newcastle

chaosraven
purge
Remus West
Triggercut

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Sat Jun 08, 2013 3:26 pm

By the by. I don't think it gets any better for the hunter to come out and kill someone from LL bad list, does it? You know specials won't be hiding among us. You get proven. Again I recommend me, scoop, or Vorret and then vote down one of the remaining two.

LordMortis
Vorret
El Guapo
Scoop20906

It would be particularly nice if Scoop or Vorret were the hunter. Remove all doubt from the day one late voters. Make sure things are "even" if/when the berzerker goes off and really make not point for the mentalist and cabal to hide any more.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Sat Jun 08, 2013 8:00 pm

so, no lynching Remus? Cuz that WOULD prove him with the Sorcerer bein' Holman...

*sigh*

And so much for my mysterious act to walk that thin line between being tempting to eat (heeeeere wolfies) and ALMOST lynchable.

Obviously, I am Cylon/Empire/FillInTheWrongTeam.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Sat Jun 08, 2013 8:01 pm

(and if it wasn't obvious, the computer is back after $200 in repairs)

redrun · Post by **redrun** » Sat Jun 08, 2013 10:11 pm

Chaosraven wrote:(and if it wasn't obvious, the computer is back after $200 in repairs)

So, does this mean you're never going to try to use a USB port that way again?

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Sun Jun 09, 2013 12:54 am

redrun wrote:
Chaosraven wrote:(and if it wasn't obvious, the computer is back after $200 in repairs)
So, does this mean you're never going to try to use a USB port that way again?

You know better than that. Until Chaosfarie installs some very hardline parental controls he will still end up accessing pr0n and thus abusing the USB ports.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Sun Jun 09, 2013 8:38 pm

Firstly, a phonejack is a better fit.

So we have Lagom, and potentially (RW, CR, and purge).
Trig with a possible provable claim.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Sun Jun 09, 2013 8:42 pm

GOOD GUYS?

redrun
Unagi
pr0ner
Qantaga
Lassr
RMC
bb2112
tru1cy
theohall
Grundbegriff

So, both the Mentalist and my two Cabalist brothers are among the above.

BAD GUYS?

Remus West
triggercut
purge
LordMortis
Vorret
El Guapo
Scoop20906
Chaosraven

BAD GUYS?

Remus West
triggercut
purge
Chaosraven

LordMortis
Vorret
El Guapo
Scoop20906

Do we intend to continue with the Cabal Directive?

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Mon Jun 10, 2013 12:51 am

I get the feeling that Lagom's list, in the end, won't turn out to be entirely accurate, and we'll need to focus on people in the "Good" list eventually.

purge · Post by **purge** » Mon Jun 10, 2013 3:05 am

theohall wrote:
purge wrote:Frankly this feels wrong. Remuswolf wouldn't be so stupid as to spoof a role that could be disproven, and since LL clearly is alive and well, at best guess NC could have been 1 of 3 cabal. IIRC LL confirmed he was not, do that leaves one person to spoof as the other two were evil.

I'm ok with voting, but the seance should be saved. The cabal will be around to answer the NC issue. I don't trust Remus. The only good Remus is a dead one.

If the seer is not remus then they are likely alive. this simplifies their job. if Remuswolf manages to kill one player in a false lynch, the game is big enough, and they are at such a disadvantage that we can afford it for the seer to scan tonight and possibly even tomorrow night before revealing.

If remus is the seer, we can look forward to him leading us to failure.

Sent from my Nokia 920
Wolves get the roles of dead people. It makes spoofing a bit easier than usual.

What an odd thing to say.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon Jun 10, 2013 8:46 am

Day 2 Vote Count

Spoiler:

Votes required for lynch - 10

Against Scoop (3) - Lassr, RMC, pr0ner
Against purge (1) - Unagi
Against trig (1) - Scoop20906
Against Vorret (1) - LordMortis
Against LordMortis (1) - theohall

No votes (12) - Remus West, Qantaga, purge, bb2112, Chaosraven, El Guapo, tru1cy, Vorret, triggercut, Lagom Lite, redrun, Grundbegriff

There are 16 villagers alive. The deadline for the lynch vote is June 20th at 9am Eastern time.

Votes for Seance

Spoiler:

Requires as least 10 Votes of which the Medium must be 1

Seance Newcastle (1) - Vorret

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Mon Jun 10, 2013 9:10 am

Oh, I thought I removed that when I put the seance vote down.

withdraw purge

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Jun 10, 2013 9:30 am

pr0ner wrote:I get the feeling that Lagom's list, in the end, won't turn out to be entirely accurate, and we'll need to focus on people in the "Good" list eventually.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Mon Jun 10, 2013 9:47 am

pr0ner wrote:I get the feeling that Lagom's list, in the end, won't turn out to be entirely accurate, and we'll need to focus on people in the "Good" list eventually.

the pickings are slim, anyone want to volunteer to move from the good guy list to the bad guy list? Come on, you know who you are if you are on the wrong list.

redrun · Post by **redrun** » Mon Jun 10, 2013 10:26 am

Scoop20906 wrote:I don't believe trig is the medium. My vote stays there.

I'm a villager.

I think if I was a wolf I'd be tempted to go Hail Mary at this point.

Trig has an easily proven power that we'll want him to use within a few days - it'd be stupid move for a wolf make that claim.
I think you might just be a beserker wolf who is trying to go Hail Mary at the moment.

What I wonder is, are you working for more votes so as to hide that you've already got your partner(s) voting for you?

stessier wrote:Day 2 Vote Count

Against Scoop (3) - Lassr, RMC, pr0ner

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Mon Jun 10, 2013 10:32 am

Remus West wrote:
pr0ner wrote:I get the feeling that Lagom's list, in the end, won't turn out to be entirely accurate, and we'll need to focus on people in the "Good" list eventually.

Well, I have a hard time believing that there are three wolves in this list:

LordMortis
Vorret
El Guapo
Scoop20906

Even if two of my main suspects right now are on it.

redrun · Post by **redrun** » Mon Jun 10, 2013 10:35 am

From Page 6:

RMC wrote:
redrun wrote:So, Lassr, Unagi, El Guapo, {BB2112|Remus|Chaosraven} as wolves, with RMC as our sorcerer.
I suspect it's BB2112, but could be Remus or Chaosraven.
I am going to Disney world if that qualifies me as a sorcerer. And my nickname is Mick. Shazam!

But nope, not the sorcerer here..Move along. Really.

I think it's the smilely that bothers me. It's day two, the wolves knew they'd killed the sorcerer on night one. It's funny that a villager is accusing someone of being the sorcerer.

redrun · Post by **redrun** » Mon Jun 10, 2013 11:04 am

stessier wrote:Day 2 Vote Count

Against Scoop (3) - Lassr, RMC, pr0ner
Against purge (1) - Unagi
Against trig (1) - Scoop20906
Against Vorret (1) - LordMortis
Against LordMortis (1) - theohall

No votes (12) - Remus West, Qantaga, purge, bb2112, Chaosraven, El Guapo, tru1cy, Vorret, triggercut, Lagom Lite, redrun, Grundbegriff

There are 16 villagers alive. The deadline for the lynch vote is June 20th at 9am Eastern time.

19 villagers left, 10 for a majority vote, right?

The remaining Evil: Scoop20906, RMC, Lassr, (in order of current 'feels evil' strength)
Possible Alternative Evil: El Gaupo, BB2112
No possible read yet: Grund
No strong feeling: Pr0ner
Folks I'm fairly sure are good: Lagom Lite, Remus West, Triggercut, Purge, Chaosraven
Folks I'm thinking are good: Qantaga, Theohall, Unagi, Tru1cy
Folks that tend to feel good: Vorret
Leaning Good: LordMortis

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Jun 10, 2013 11:09 am

redrun wrote:
stessier wrote:Day 2 Vote Count

Against Scoop (3) - Lassr, RMC, pr0ner
Against purge (1) - Unagi
Against trig (1) - Scoop20906
Against Vorret (1) - LordMortis
Against LordMortis (1) - theohall

No votes (12) - Remus West, Qantaga, purge, bb2112, Chaosraven, El Guapo, tru1cy, Vorret, triggercut, Lagom Lite, redrun, Grundbegriff

There are 16 villagers alive. The deadline for the lynch vote is June 20th at 9am Eastern time.
19 voters left, 10 for a majority vote, right?

The remaining Evil: Scoop20906, RMC, Lassr, (in order of current 'feels evil' strength)
Possible Alternative Evil: El Gaupo, BB2112
No possible read yet: Grund
No strong feeling: Pr0ner
Folks I'm fairly sure are good: Lagom Lite, Remus West, Triggercut, Purge, Chaosraven
Folks I'm thinking are good: Qantaga, Theohall, Unagi, Tru1cy
Folks that tend to feel good: Vorret
Leaning Good: LordMortis

FTFY. stessier has been posting the number of villagers left which is the number of voters less the wolves.
You are correct regarding the majority number though.

redrun · Post by **redrun** » Mon Jun 10, 2013 11:17 am

Remus West wrote:FTFY. stessier has been posting the number of villagers left which is the number of voters less the wolves.
You are correct regarding the majority number though.

Oh, yeah, we had that big discussion around Triggercut and this earlier. Thanks for the information/reminder.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Jun 10, 2013 11:28 am

I'm still inclined to think that a mass outing is the way to go. I've also been convinced to put off the seance until at least tomorrow.

Doesn't seem like there's a lot of momentum behind the mass outing idea. If we don't do that, I'm currently inclined to go with

Scoop

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Mon Jun 10, 2013 12:36 pm

Most of the people I sincerely want to vote for are on LL's Good list or purge (even CR), from Remus' claimed scan.

I'm kinda lukewarm on the whole vorret/scoop/el guapo/LM choice that seems to be presented, but I'm bored - so I have no problem with these and I think we are in pretty good shape right now.

I think I agree with the mass-outing approach to the day, but that's mostly because I think it will help me get people to look at people other than the whole this list versus that list, but I also think our specials can be helped actually too. It looks from what people have discussed that it puts us in a nearly "can't lose" position. Don't we have like 6 misses or something?

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Mon Jun 10, 2013 1:03 pm

redrun wrote:The remaining Evil: Scoop20906, RMC, Lassr, (in order of current 'feels evil' strength)
Possible Alternative Evil: El Gaupo, BB2112
No possible read yet: Grund
No strong feeling: Pr0ner
Folks I'm fairly sure are good: Lagom Lite, Remus West, Triggercut, Purge, Chaosraven
Folks I'm thinking are good: Qantaga, Theohall, Unagi, Tru1cy
Folks that tend to feel good: Vorret
Leaning Good: LordMortis

Scoop is either bored or he's self censoring, and I can't tell which. At first I felt he was holding back, but he has come across a little more relaxed than last time, but then again - he's hardly posted much.
RMC - there was a point where his posting had me convinced he was human. I'm on the fence, but he's not a strong candidate IMO.
Lassr - seriously can't read him and he could very well be a wolf right now
El Guapo - just a gut-call, but of the 4 that are on the 'table' right now, he seems the most likely to be "Aha! he was a wolf!"... and that's mainly because I feel he's been walking the line pretty well the whole game.
BB2112 - I'm very interested in testing him, he's had a number of moments this game that read wrong to me.
Grund - no clue, but I could see 'zerker'. I expected the Seer to have scanned him, but I guess purge was better?
pr0ner - there have been a number of times he's said things I was thinking and hadn't posted. Not every time, but a number of em... I'm mostly leaning good on him, but not 100%
Lagom - certainly Cabal
Remus - Seer claim (be an odd time for a wolf to, but waiting on Newcastle autopsy)
Trig - certainly Medium
purge - If it wasn't for the remus scan, I'd have my vote here.
CR - I'd be willing to test him too, but he also has a claimed scanned by Remus
Qantaga - No clue, but man he is absolutely HERE. Not sure what to make of that, as I'm normally wondering where the hell he is. So, it's great, and IMO - he's been right over a number of these arguments he's been in... being 'right' doesn't reflect his alignment, but I felt he needed to hear that. I'd not be likely to test him at this stage.
Theohall - The second he's removed from a 'Good list', I'd test him. I think there are no less than 3 times in this very game where Theo has backed down from his 'wrong position' and declared the other guy 'right', and 'sorry about that'.... Not sure I've ever heard him do that at all.
tru1cy - not sure, nothing in particular (interactions with others, etc) has made him seem less evil than the standard...
vorret - also not really sure. I was more interested in testing Vorret earlier, but a few of his posts seem human/villager based.
LordMortis - He started this game setting me up for a lynch (IMO) and then sorta dropped it. If he's a wolf, I will learn a lot about wolf-LM, but this also sound/feels like regular LordMortis to me - a little more 'in your face' then normal. Not someone I'm dying to test, but I could test him today.
redrun - on the fence with you... frankly you've intersected with a lot of players (which is great for our end-game), and I'm waiting for some of their alignments to be made clear. (like bb2112... I feel I'd learn about Q, you, and others - if bb2112 is a wolf)

redrun · Post by **redrun** » Mon Jun 10, 2013 1:44 pm

The Iocane options.

Last night Lagom Lite was probably protected. Tonight the two targets (IMO) are the medium and the seer. As bad as this sounds, I think that from a village standpoint they work out just the same - if either is alive tomorrow they can get us the night scan. Both are unlikely to make it two days. If the wolves guess right, they'll go after the one that wasn't protected, thus the following night be able to pick off the second of the pair. If the wolves guess wrong, they'll miss tonight.

Unagi wrote:El Guapo - just a gut-call, but of the 4 that are on the 'table' right now, he seems the most likely to be "Aha! he was a wolf!"... and that's mainly because I feel he's been walking the line pretty well the whole game.
redrun - on the fence with you... frankly you've intersected with a lot of players (which is great for our end-game), and I'm waiting for some of their alignments to be made clear. (like bb2112... I feel I'd learn about Q, you, and others - if bb2112 is a wolf)

Of the four folks on Lagom's "possible bad" list:
I think Scoop is asking for votes via doubting Triggercut. I'm still waiting for him to go boom.
Vorret and LordMortis look more towards good to me.
That leaves El Guapo - who has spent a fair bit of time on my 'possible evil' list.

El Guapo

I'll start it, let's see where it goes.

Qantaga · Post by **Qantaga** » Mon Jun 10, 2013 1:45 pm

Unagi wrote: Qantaga - No clue, but man he is absolutely HERE. Not sure what to make of that, as I'm normally wondering where the hell he is. So, it's great, and IMO - he's been right over a number of these arguments he's been in... being 'right' doesn't reflect his alignment, but I felt he needed to hear that.

Unagi wrote: Remus - Seer claim (be an odd time for a wolf to, but waiting on Newcastle autopsy)

Here's the thing about Remus' claim. It almost certainly tells us that Newcastle was not the Seer:

- First, Newcastle's actions did not reflect those of a Seer. They reflected those of a provable role (Hunter, Medium, Cabalist/Mentalist). Sure, he could have claimed Seer and, over time, his scans (or his death at night) could have proven him, but he would have been sacrificing several potential scans for one reckless act.

- More compelling than that, though, is what Newcastle-as-Seer would have meant to the wolves. I can't imagine the wolves bagging the Seer and then stepping forward to spoof the role, knowing the Cabal would have the evidence to counter the spoof by the very next day. Things had been going poorly for the wolves. Killing the Sorcerer and having Bakhtosh lynched put them against the ropes early. However, if they had killed the Seer, their chances would have improved greatly. Their biggest danger (Seer scans) would have been stopped cold. The Medium might get the Seer's first two scans, but that would be it. The three of them might be able to pull the game off with some hard work and considerable luck. Compare that to risk/foolishness of spoofing the Seer if Newcastle was the Seer. They would be giving up any advantage that they had just gained by putting the spoofer up to a certain lynch the minute the Cabal revealed Newcastle as Seer.

In my mind, there are only two likely scenarios:

- A) Remus is indeed the Seer.

- B) Remus is a wolf, who having done the same math he did in his Seer claiming post, realized (along with his team) that the odds were stacked highly against them. In this scenario (a Hail Mary truly), he would be hoping the real Seer would counter him. If so, they would have identified the Seer (their biggest threat) and, depending on the real Seer's first two scans, Remus could probably stay alive for another day or two if the real Seer didn't have a wolf yet (under the "we let the wolves sort out the Seer when we're not sure" mechanic).

If Newcastle is the Seer, it would be a very foolish play by Remus, more in line with the Pisarcik call than a Hail Mary.

I would be stunned if Newcastle is the Seer.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Jun 10, 2013 2:12 pm

redrun wrote:I think Scoop is asking for votes via doubting Triggercut. I'm still waiting for him to go boom.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Jun 10, 2013 2:18 pm

redrun wrote: I think Scoop is asking for votes via doubting Triggercut. I'm still waiting for him to go boom.

So....why aren't you asking the Hunter to shoot Scoop?

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Jun 10, 2013 2:31 pm

El Guapo wrote:
redrun wrote: I think Scoop is asking for votes via doubting Triggercut. I'm still waiting for him to go boom.
So....why aren't you asking the Hunter to shoot Scoop?

Why is he waiting for Scoop to "go boom"? The Berserker goes off when lynched, not whenever he feels like it.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Jun 10, 2013 2:33 pm

Remus West wrote:
El Guapo wrote:
redrun wrote: I think Scoop is asking for votes via doubting Triggercut. I'm still waiting for him to go boom.
So....why aren't you asking the Hunter to shoot Scoop?
Why is he waiting for Scoop to "go boom"? The Berserker goes off when lynched, not whenever he feels like it.

Good point. I guess I had just read that as an accusation that Scoop is the Berserker wolf, as opposed to a statement that he's literally expecting him to go berserk. But I suppose your reading is probably the more natural one.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Jun 10, 2013 4:22 pm

BB2112 - I'm very interested in testing him, he's had a number of moments this game that read wrong to me.

If we have a mass outing and he's not verified by LL, that's where my vote is going and it's likely to stay there.

I also would have voted purge today, but for Remus' revelation, but probably for different reasons then you. Purge was litmus test for bb2112.

I personally think the mass outing is good for sorting details, however if it's going to happen it should happen soon. Otherwise it will divide votes rather than bring them together. I also think wolf hunter would have come out by now and shot one of the four of us, taking a chance at getting a berzerker, unless the hunter is Tru1cy who expressed that outings are weak (which I think implies that newcastle is the hunter). That says to me that LLs people have little to lose by coming out now, IMO but that uncertainty also makes it improbable that they will.

redrun · Post by **redrun** » Mon Jun 10, 2013 4:39 pm

Remus West wrote:
El Guapo wrote:
redrun wrote: I think Scoop is asking for votes via doubting Triggercut. I'm still waiting for him to go boom.
So....why aren't you asking the Hunter to shoot Scoop?
Why is he waiting for Scoop to "go boom"? The Berserker goes off when lynched, not whenever he feels like it.

Yeah, we worked that out earlier in the game also, didn't we?

I blame it all on cold meds.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Jun 10, 2013 4:41 pm

redrun wrote:
Remus West wrote:
El Guapo wrote:
redrun wrote: I think Scoop is asking for votes via doubting Triggercut. I'm still waiting for him to go boom.
So....why aren't you asking the Hunter to shoot Scoop?
Why is he waiting for Scoop to "go boom"? The Berserker goes off when lynched, not whenever he feels like it.
Yeah, we worked that out earlier in the game also, didn't we?

I blame it all on cold meds.

But the question remains: do you think that the Hunter should shoot Scoop?

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Jun 10, 2013 4:51 pm

El Guapo wrote:But the question remains: do you think that the Hunter should shoot Scoop?

At the risk of sounding wolfish because I am increasingly believing newcastle to be the hunter, I don't think it's a bad plan. Shoot Scoop, lynch vorret, and scan me would be my play if the hunter is alive and I controlled the vote and the scan... And if we all came up villager then I'd bump you from 7th in my list up to 2nd, right below bb2112.

Of course, I'd keep me alive because I know I'm a villager but the plan works equally well for any of the three of us.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Jun 10, 2013 4:55 pm

LordMortis wrote:
El Guapo wrote:But the question remains: do you think that the Hunter should shoot Scoop?
At the risk of sounding wolfish because I am increasingly believing newcastle to be the hunter, I don't think it's a bad plan. Shoot Scoop, lynch vorret, and scan me would be my play if the hunter is alive and I controlled the vote and the scan... And if we all came up villager then I'd bump you from 7th in my list up to 2nd, right below bb2112.

Of course, I'd keep me alive because I know I'm a villager but the plan works equally well for any of the three of us.

You'd scan yourself when you already know that you're a villager?

I'm mainly interested in redrun's analysis as to why Scoop is the berserker.