Ukraine

[Kurth]

Definitely looking bad.

Does any of this come to pass if we had not elected Trump and endured 4 + years of his cozying up to Putin (and any other authoritarian that caught his eye) while stomping all over our critical alliances in Europe?

I just can't see Putin making a move like this -- and it certainly looks like he's going all in -- in the face of a strong and unified NATO with the U.S. in a leadership position.

[Jaymann]

Will be interesting to see what the Repugnicans who, in the shade of Florida Man, maintained Putin was not so bad have to say. Of course I already know. They will dodge that issue by attacking Biden's handling of the situation, whatever it is.

[malchior]

It's worse. Many are defending Putin for what he is doing. They've basically thrown all decency out the window.

[Pyperkub]

Definitely looking bad.

Does any of this come to pass if we had not elected Trump and endured 4 + years of his cozying up to Putin (and any other authoritarian that caught his eye) while stomping all over our critical alliances in Europe?

I just can't see Putin making a move like this -- and it certainly looks like he's going all in -- in the face of a strong and unified NATO with the U.S. in a leadership position.

He moved on Crimea (still occupied Ukrainian Territory) while Obama was in office, so yes.

[RunningMn9]

At least Kraken might get that nuclear immolation that was promised to him in his younger days.

[LordMortis]

After reading a chunk of the transcript from Reuters, I'd say "whelp, the cold war is back on" but I somehow thing nearly 1/3rd of Americans support Trump's Putin's vision for Russia.

[Holman]

Rich long thread on the Russian performance today:

[Holman]

Large numbers of Russian troops are now moving into Putin's newly declared "independent republics" in eastern Ukraine.

It's true that they've been operating there for years, but in a somewhat clandestine manner. Now there will be armored/mechanized forces with air support.

[malchior]

#Notaninvasion

[Blackhawk]

War.

War never changes.

[RunningMn9]

They don’t sound very independent.

[Fireball]

This whole situation is horrifying, and Biden has no good options here.

I wonder if this would be happening if Merkel hadn't made the mistake of beginning the shutdown of Germany's nuclear energy production after Fukushima, which ended up pouring a ton of money into the Russian government's bank accounts.

[Kraken]

At least Kraken might get that nuclear immolation that was promised to him in his younger days.

One hopes that a war in Europe doesn't escalate and spread. I doubt anyone would reach for their nukes, but war is unpredictable. Most likely, it will cause an energy shock and kick inflation up another notch.

It looks like Putin is annexing and garrisoning the two Russian-friendly provinces. Will he stop there? Will Ukraine try to take them back? Who knows? Putin is shrewd and ambitious.

[Grifman]

At least Kraken might get that nuclear immolation that was promised to him in his younger days.

One hopes that a war in Europe doesn't escalate and spread. I doubt anyone would reach for their nukes, but war is unpredictable. Most likely, it will cause an energy shock and kick inflation up another notch.

It looks like Putin is annexing and garrisoning the two Russian-friendly provinces. Will he stop there? Will Ukraine try to take them back? Who knows? Putin is shrewd and ambitious.

I think the real question is whether Putin stops at the current de facto borders (where the war left off) or decides to take the territory of those two regions that they claim but are currently held by the Ukrainian government. If he recognizes them, then does he recognize their territorial claims and support them taking those territories or does he just sit tight? And perhaps is this Putin's compromise - figuring he can get away with this as it really doesn't change anything on the ground, while avoiding the worst of Western sanctions? Did the West force Putin to blink? I guess only time will tell.

[Zarathud]

Putin is reaping the harvest from the disruptions he’s nurtured in NATO.

The US is divided and FOX News is torn between supporting him or blaming Biden. Democrats don’t want another war.
The UK is isolated by Brexit.
Germany has a new untested leader whose country depends on Russian energy.
France is predictably ineffective.

[LawBeefaroni]

Putin is reaping the harvest from the disruptions he’s nurtured in NATO.

The US is divided and FOX News is torn between supporting him or blaming Biden. Democrats don’t want another war.
The UK is isolated by Brexit.
Germany has a new untested leader whose country depends on Russian energy.
France is predictably ineffective.

It's all going according to plan.

And it's scary as fuck. Don't want to say "Anschluss," but...

[UsulofDoom]

Putin is reaping the harvest from the disruptions he’s nurtured in NATO.

The US is divided and FOX News is torn between supporting him or blaming Biden. Democrats don’t want another war.
The UK is isolated by Brexit.
Germany has a new untested leader whose country depends on Russian energy.
France is predictably ineffective.

Non Democrats don’t want war as well! &*^%

[Isgrimnur]

Putin is reaping the harvest from the disruptions he’s nurtured in NATO.

The US is divided and FOX News is torn between supporting him or blaming Biden. Democrats don’t want another war.
The UK is isolated by Brexit.
Germany has a new untested leader whose country depends on Russian energy.
France is predictably ineffective.

It's all going according to plan.

And it's scary as fuck. Don't want to say "Anschluss," but...

I'd be more worried about Holodomor than Anschluss.

[Grifman]

Putin is reaping the harvest from the disruptions he’s nurtured in NATO.

How so? The Allies seem pretty united in the set of sanctions that they have put together against Russia. There's always going to be disagreements in an alliance the size of NATO, but the allies have come together on what they are going to do. And not a single ally has even hinted that NATO should accept any of Putin's demands regarding the allliance - no future for Ukraine in NATO, withdrawal of NATO forces from Eastern Europe, no drills in Eastern Europe without Russian permission. I don't see where Putin has gained a single thing with respect to what he really wants regarding his long term goals.

[El Guapo]

Putin is reaping the harvest from the disruptions he’s nurtured in NATO.

How so? The Allies seem pretty united in the set of sanctions that they have put together against Russia. There's always going to be disagreements in an alliance the size of NATO, but the allies have come together on what they are going to do. And not a single ally has even hinted that NATO should accept any of Putin's demands regarding the allliance - no future for Ukraine in NATO, withdrawal of NATO forces from Eastern Europe, no drills in Eastern Europe without Russian permission. I don't see where Putin has gained a single thing with respect to what he really wants regarding his long term goals.

Well, he has troops in Belarus which aren't going anywhere, which has been publicly announced. Belarus becomes even more of a puppet state, and seems reasonably likely that Belarus may 'ask' to be absorbed into Russia.

Putin's poised to install some sort of puppet government in the Ukraine post invasion, which will presumably be thrilled to allow for the permanent positioning of Russian troops throughout the country.

NATO countries have certainly made a lot of clear and condemning remarks, and will increase sanctions on Russia. Not sure there's much on the horizon that's likely to dislodge the Russian positions.

So seems like he's doing a pretty decent job of recreating the Russian / Soviet empire so far. Though of course a lot can still go wrong.

[Zarathud]

NATO was formed as a military alliance to curb Russian expansion in Europe.

Putin is getting what he wants despite any sanctions. He’ll blame bad Russian economics on the US, consolidating his control because he’s “Made Russia Great Again.”

[raydude]

NATO was formed as a military alliance to curb Russian expansion in Europe.

Putin is getting what he wants despite any sanctions. He’ll blame bad Russian economics on the US, consolidating his control because he’s “Made Russia Great Again.”

So, essentially he tanks the Russian economy in exchange for shoring up his power base. Sure that's a good strategy for him in the short-term, but it sucks long-term. Sucky Russian economy does not benefit the oligarchy.

[hepcat]

Putin is reaping the harvest from the disruptions he’s nurtured in NATO.

The US is divided and FOX News is torn between supporting him or blaming Biden. Democrats don’t want another war.
The UK is isolated by Brexit.
Germany has a new untested leader whose country depends on Russian energy.
France is predictably ineffective.

Non Democrats don’t want war as well! &*^%

I believe he’s referring to Fox News and their previous sympathy, if not outright support, for Putin. They’re now caught in a conundrum over whether to support Biden or blame him for souring what many conservatives felt was a good relationship with Russia. As Fox is the voice of republicans in major media, he framed his answer the way he did.

[Grifman]

Putin is reaping the harvest from the disruptions he’s nurtured in NATO.

How so? The Allies seem pretty united in the set of sanctions that they have put together against Russia. There's always going to be disagreements in an alliance the size of NATO, but the allies have come together on what they are going to do. And not a single ally has even hinted that NATO should accept any of Putin's demands regarding the allliance - no future for Ukraine in NATO, withdrawal of NATO forces from Eastern Europe, no drills in Eastern Europe without Russian permission. I don't see where Putin has gained a single thing with respect to what he really wants regarding his long term goals.

Well, he has troops in Belarus which aren't going anywhere, which has been publicly announced. Belarus becomes even more of a puppet state, and seems reasonably likely that Belarus may 'ask' to be absorbed into Russia.

Putin's poised to install some sort of puppet government in the Ukraine post invasion, which will presumably be thrilled to allow for the permanent positioning of Russian troops throughout the country.

NATO countries have certainly made a lot of clear and condemning remarks, and will increase sanctions on Russia. Not sure there's much on the horizon that's likely to dislodge the Russian positions.

So seems like he's doing a pretty decent job of recreating the Russian / Soviet empire so far. Though of course a lot can still go wrong.

But that’s not the argument. The argument wasn’t that Putin wouldn’t be able to take over Belarus and Ukraine if he wanted to. The argument was that Putin was “reaping the harvest” from disrupting NATO. But again - how has he disrupted NATO? NATO was NEVER going to go to war over Ukraine (or Belarus), so in what way is he reaping any harvest from disrupting NATO?

That is only is true if he is able to do something that he wouldn’t be able to do otherwise because of his “disruption”, which isn’t happening. He is doing what he is doing in Belarus and Ukraine exactly because those two nations are NOT a part of NATO. If NATO was not preparing to implement sanctions, which is all it was ever willing to do, or just implement weak ones due to divisions in the alliance, there would be an argument. But again, this is not happening. He is going to be hit extremely hard.

And it should be noted that today, Germany, which relies on Russian natural gas, (along with a number of other European countries) has halted certification of the Nordstream 2 pipeline. This is a big deal, especially for those who thought Germany would do little. It should be noted that this is occurring even with skyrocketing gas prices in Europe right now. It shows that Germany and other NATO nations are willing to take the economic hit.

So, no, everything so far shows that Putin has not been able to disrupt NATO, but instead the alliance is united in their extremely strong economic response to him.

[Grifman]

NATO was formed as a military alliance to curb Russian expansion in Europe.

False, NATO was formed to prevent Russian expansion into NATO countries. When Hungary (1956) and Czechoslovakia (1968) temporarily liberalized and sought to move towards the West, NATO did nothing to halt the Soviet invasions bring them back into its sphere. Further examples, NATO has no commitments to defend either Sweden or Finland as neither are NATO members.

Putin is getting what he wants despite any sanctions. He’ll blame bad Russian economics on the US, consolidating his control because he’s “Made Russia Great Again.”

He’s getting leftovers. What he really wanted was to neuter NATO - no troops in former Warsaw Pact nations, no military maneuvers with those countries unless he gave approval, no future NATO expansion. He’s getting none of that and has instead overplayed his hand.

And I think we still need to see how this plays out. If, and that is a big if, he stops further actions, only in sending troops into the Donbas, then Putin has blinked, not wanting a war that would trigger sweeping economic sanctions. But it’s too early to know right now. We need to wait and see how this works plays out.

[Grifman]

NATO was formed as a military alliance to curb Russian expansion in Europe.

Putin is getting what he wants despite any sanctions. He’ll blame bad Russian economics on the US, consolidating his control because he’s “Made Russia Great Again.”

So, essentially he tanks the Russian economy in exchange for shoring up his power base. Sure that's a good strategy for him in the short-term, but it sucks long-term. Sucky Russian economy does not benefit the oligarchy.

Russia has the GDP of Italy with 3 times the population. Other than weapons, Russia makes little that the world wants to buy, it only avoids abject poverty due to oil and gas exports. That’s why Russia develops and announces technically impressive new tanks and fighter jets but can’t afford that build them. As the world moves to green energy Russia will fall into poverty. The West just needs to play the long game here. Russia can cause all sorts of problems in the short term, but long term it is playing a losing hand.

I should also note the Russia’s real long term problem isn’t the West, it’s China. As the world warms, all that nice empty resource rich territory in Siberia is going to look very tempting to a resource hungry China. Historically Russia’s big mistake will be seen as not liberalizing their government system and not joining NATO after the fall of the USSR.

[LordMortis]

I believe he’s referring to Fox News and their previous sympathy, if not outright support, for Putin. They’re now caught in a conundrum over whether to support Biden or blame him for souring what many conservatives felt was a good relationship with Russia. As Fox is the voice of republicans in major media, he framed his answer the way he did.

Previous? Fucko Carlson as recently as last week has only recanted on Russia enough to say what Russia does is none of our business. I don't care about Russia. I care about the US.

And it should be noted that today, Germany, which relies on Russian natural gas, (along with a number of other European countries) has halted certification of the Nordstream 2 pipeline.

I saw that this morning and was glad to read this and wonder how much pain Germany will endure for it. Seems like the new chancellor is being tested and so far I like the response (even if I am not fully informed on the subject)

He’s getting leftovers. What he really wanted was to neuter NATO

This is my perception so it must be true. It's a huge bone I have to pick with lapdog, Trump.

[hepcat]

I'm always surprised when Carlson doesn't hold his entire show while in bed with Putin and enjoying a nice hot cocoa.

[Grifman]

What’s also interesting is how Putin’s actions are resulting in the very thing he doesn’t want - NATO expansion. As noted earlier, both Finland and Sweden are not members of NATO, but public opinion has slowly been moving towards NATO. A plurality of Swedes favor NATO membership, while for the first time a majority of Fins are not opposed to NATO membership (though membership is still a minority position). I don’t think either will seek membership any time soon, but trends are not favorable for Russia.

In addition Finland is buying US F-35’s and has stated that interoperability with NATO equipment will be a future cornerstone of the Finnish military. Both countries are PFP members and have been working more closely with NATO than they had been in the past. Putin’s actions, rather than discouraging NATO membership are instead encouraging it.

[Pyperkub]

Putin is reaping the harvest from the disruptions he’s nurtured in NATO.

How so? The Allies seem pretty united in the set of sanctions that they have put together against Russia. There's always going to be disagreements in an alliance the size of NATO, but the allies have come together on what they are going to do. And not a single ally has even hinted that NATO should accept any of Putin's demands regarding the allliance - no future for Ukraine in NATO, withdrawal of NATO forces from Eastern Europe, no drills in Eastern Europe without Russian permission. I don't see where Putin has gained a single thing with respect to what he really wants regarding his long term goals.

Well, he has troops in Belarus which aren't going anywhere, which has been publicly announced. Belarus becomes even more of a puppet state, and seems reasonably likely that Belarus may 'ask' to be absorbed into Russia.

Putin's poised to install some sort of puppet government in the Ukraine post invasion, which will presumably be thrilled to allow for the permanent positioning of Russian troops throughout the country.

NATO countries have certainly made a lot of clear and condemning remarks, and will increase sanctions on Russia. Not sure there's much on the horizon that's likely to dislodge the Russian positions.

So seems like he's doing a pretty decent job of recreating the Russian / Soviet empire so far. Though of course a lot can still go wrong.

Regarding a "puppet" Government in Ukraine - this is what he had prior to Ukraine deposing Putin's corrupt puppet Yanukovic (Paul Manafort's very good friend...).

[LawBeefaroni]

NATO was formed as a military alliance to curb Russian expansion in Europe.

Putin is getting what he wants despite any sanctions. He’ll blame bad Russian economics on the US, consolidating his control because he’s “Made Russia Great Again.”

So, essentially he tanks the Russian economy in exchange for shoring up his power base. Sure that's a good strategy for him in the short-term, but it sucks long-term. Sucky Russian economy does not benefit the oligarchy.

If he can properly place the blame, a poor economy can be an extremely useful catalyst.

[Holman]

What’s also interesting is how Putin’s actions are resulting in the very thing he doesn’t want - NATO expansion. As noted earlier, both Finland and Sweden are not members of NATO, but public opinion has slowly been moving towards NATO. A plurality of Swedes favor NATO membership, while for the first time a majority of Fins are not opposed to NATO membership (though membership is still a minority position). I don’t think either will seek membership any time soon, but trends are not favorable for Russia.

In addition Finland is buying US F-35’s and has stated that interoperability with NATO equipment will be a future cornerstone of the Finnish military. Both countries are PFP members and have been working more closely with NATO than they had been in the past. Putin’s actions, rather than discouraging NATO membership are instead encouraging it.

Right. And it's conceivable that (presuming Putin stops at the current contested border) Ukraine eventually joins NATO with an understanding that the occupied territory *should* belong to Ukraine but that only further invasion would trigger NATO action.

[LordMortis]

If he can properly place the blame, a poor economy can be an extremely useful catalyst.

If he can convince the people that he is the solution whether that is rooted in any way to reality or not, then yeah. See 2016 elections in the US.

[Grifman]

What’s also interesting is how Putin’s actions are resulting in the very thing he doesn’t want - NATO expansion. As noted earlier, both Finland and Sweden are not members of NATO, but public opinion has slowly been moving towards NATO. A plurality of Swedes favor NATO membership, while for the first time a majority of Fins are not opposed to NATO membership (though membership is still a minority position). I don’t think either will seek membership any time soon, but trends are not favorable for Russia.

In addition Finland is buying US F-35’s and has stated that interoperability with NATO equipment will be a future cornerstone of the Finnish military. Both countries are PFP members and have been working more closely with NATO than they had been in the past. Putin’s actions, rather than discouraging NATO membership are instead encouraging it.

Right. And it's conceivable that (presuming Putin stops at the current contested border) Ukraine eventually joins NATO with an understanding that the occupied territory *should* belong to Ukraine but that only further invasion would trigger NATO action.

Doubtful, NATO has explicitly stated that no nations with ongoing territorial disputes will be allowed into NATO without prior resolution of those disputes, because they don't want to get dragged into pre-existing hostilities and potential war. That has effectively kept Georgia, Moldava and Ukraine out, because Putin has used separatist movements there to freeze any movement towards NATO membership.

[Grifman]

NATO was formed as a military alliance to curb Russian expansion in Europe.

Putin is getting what he wants despite any sanctions. He’ll blame bad Russian economics on the US, consolidating his control because he’s “Made Russia Great Again.”

So, essentially he tanks the Russian economy in exchange for shoring up his power base. Sure that's a good strategy for him in the short-term, but it sucks long-term. Sucky Russian economy does not benefit the oligarchy.

If he can properly place the blame, a poor economy can be an extremely useful catalyst.

That can work for the short term but as things drag on without resolution, it becomes less and less helpful as people grow tired of the hardship. I think the real question here is how much can/will China help Russia avoid/evade sanctions, and will the West take steps to mitigate against that.

[Dogstar]

That can work for the short term but as things drag on without resolution, it becomes less and less helpful as people grow tired of the hardship. I think the real question here is how much can/will China help Russia avoid/evade sanctions, and will the West take steps to mitigate against that.

I'm sure there will be a cost, but a weakened Russia benefits China long-term anyway. Maybe they're counting on getting a two-fer -- an occupation in Ukraine runs into a resistance that starts to bleed Russia's military, and the sanctions (which hopefully will be much stronger and widespread than what's been announced so far) sap the country economically.

No matter what though, the sanctions need to come in hard and fast.

[Carpet_pissr]

Many Russians take pride in their ability to endure hardship, especially if it’s seen as a patriotic sacrifice.

[Dogstar]

Many Russians take pride in their ability to endure hardship, especially if it’s seen as a patriotic sacrifice.

This is true, but you need money to finance the cost of troops and equipment for territorial acquisitions. I don't think Putin can just hardship/loot his way from one territory to fund the next expansion (there's a 4x space game with a species like that). If we figure out a way to limit Russia's ability to sell/profit from oil/gas...

[Alefroth]

What's the likelihood we'll see any Russian entities kicked off of the SWIFT network?

[pr0ner]