Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

[Holman]

Trump coasted on being something completely novel in 2016. It was possible to believe that Hillary represented the Old School and that Trump might just be the jumpstart the stale system needed. There were actually stories about Trump running to the left of Clinton on this or that issue.

This year I don't think there are any illusions about what Trump is. No one is going in innocent.

[Skinypupy]

https://twitter.com/mviser/status/1300154855546392577

NEW from Joe Biden: "I condemn violence of every kind by anyone, whether on the left or the right. And I challenge Donald Trump to do the same."

[Kraken]

Granholm estimated that about 4% of trump voters in MI won't admit their support to pollsters or anyone outside of their close friends and family. I figure she probably knows MI voters as well as anyone and better than most.

I don’t buy it. There’s no consequences to telling a pollster, no shame. Every Trump voter I know shares two important features: they are *proud* of it; and they won’t shut up about it.

It probably won't change your mind, but for completion's sake this is the story I was referring to.

Some voters are “almost afraid to admit to a stranger on the phone that they’re voting for Trump,” Rendell said. “He runs about four points better than he polls.”

Jennifer Granholm, the former governor of Michigan, another swing state that Trump won in an upset in 2016, expressed similar concerns.

“There is not a single Democrat that I have talked to — and I talk to a lot of them — who feel smug in any way,” she said on CNN after Trump’s acceptance speech. “Democrats know that in 2016 there were a lot of people who were not counted in any of those polls.”

So I conflated someone else's 4% estimate with her agreement. BTW, so far Biden has not campaigned in MI.

[Daehawk]

This is how a deep red state behaves itself.

As states make voting easier during the pandemic, Tennessee is moving in the other direction

While several other states are expanding mail-in voting, several moves in Tennessee are actually restricting the right to vote in the Volunteer State.

A recent Tennessee Supreme Court decision ruled that the state does not need to further expand access to mail-in voting, overturning a lower court ruling that would have allowed all eligible voters to vote via absentee ballots due to the coronavirus pandemic.

In the same month, Tennessee passed a law that would charge protesters camping on state property with a felony, which would cause those convicted of the felony to lose their right to vote."I have not seen another state do another version of 'Oh my god, I'm losing the chess game, throw the board over and completely reset it,'" said Jessica Levinson, a Loyola Law School professor who focuses on election law, and a CNN contributor. "I have not seen another state step onto the dance floor with this aggression."

[ImLawBoy]

Granholm estimated that about 4% of trump voters in MI won't admit their support to pollsters or anyone outside of their close friends and family. I figure she probably knows MI voters as well as anyone and better than most.

I don’t buy it. There’s no consequences to telling a pollster, no shame. Every Trump voter I know shares two important features: they are *proud* of it; and they won’t shut up about it.

I'm not saying I buy the shy Trump voter theory one way or another (I'm 100% on the fence on that), but every proud and talkative Trump voter you know doesn't say a thing about a shy Trump voter. If they're a (potentially mythical) shy Trump voter, then they're by definition claiming not to be voting for Trump (in other words, they're neither proud nor talking all the time about it). That's why they're potentially dangerous.

[LordMortis]

So I conflated someone else's 4% estimate with her agreement. BTW, so far Biden has not campaigned in MI.

1) I buy there are "shy" Trump voters and have stated as much. I buy there are people who want to protect theirs and won't want to talk about it unless pressed. Being polled is not being pressed. I don't think there are Trump voting liars, so much but still quiet, even after these past five years, definitely. And again, I don't think these "shy" voters are 2A, ProLife, uneducated, bigots. I think they see Trumpublicans as protecting theirs. (I think they are wrong but I think that is their motivation)

2) And why I posted, is Biden does have ads and lord knows I get a lot more stupid unsolicited Biden texts than I do Trump texts. Texting me does not endear me to your cause. Just sayin'. Door knocking and invading my phone do nothing but annoy me and I then associate you with annoying and being intrusive.

[Grifman]

While Biden maintains a wide national lead, this is not encouraging:

https://twitter.com/shaunking/status/13 ... 36608?s=20

[malchior]

I mentioned these concerns the other day. The good news are these polls are lower quality. Meaning they aren't coming from the top-notch firms with a history of accurate polling and the sample sizes are typically smaller. That cuts both ways though - in PA & FL polls of similar quality/sample sizes have Biden up stronger than Clinton in 2016.

Until the high quality polling rolls in over the next few weeks we probably won't have a great picture. The imperative is clear though. Biden has to amp up his appearances, strength of message, and organization in these battleground states. And the campaign has announced plans to that effect.

[pr0ner]

Oh, Shaun King. Like I'm going to listen to anything that grifter has to say.

[malchior]

Oh, Shaun King. Like I'm going to listen to anything that grifter has to say.

Fair but the RCP data comparison has been made several times by others. He was just plagiarizing someone else's ideas.

Edit: Also I hadn't clicked into that graph. They are averaging all the battlegrounds together? How dumb is that? It's totally useless on its own.

[Defiant]

First off, I have questions: Are these the same battlegrounds or different battlegrounds? (eg, is Texas now considered a battleground state?) Are the states polled equally (doubtful). Are they combined proportionally (so that New Hampshire isn't the equivalent of Pennslyvania)? There's a big lack of transparency.

Second of all, this is right on the heals of the 2020 Republican convention, when they've just been putting on a four day infomercial on the Republican party. In 2016, that happened in July.

Here's a link to the comparison itself:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... 0-vs-2016/

[malchior]

This is click bait at this point IMO. It provides little predictive insight. Biden is +5 in PA & FL (but again the polls are lower quality). Unless there is some weird weighting going on in their 'average' just means he is worse off somewhere else. However Trump needs PA & FL to win so anyone looking at this might think Biden's campaign is in grave danger when the wider picture considering the electoral college shows Biden is in better than ok shape right now.

[El Guapo]

FWIW the 538 average currently shows Biden +8. I forget what the issues are with the RCP average, but my understanding is that it's not great.

[Holman]

2) And why I posted, is Biden does have ads and lord knows I get a lot more stupid unsolicited Biden texts than I do Trump texts. Texting me does not endear me to your cause. Just sayin'. Door knocking and invading my phone do nothing but annoy me and I then associate you with annoying and being intrusive.

That's the price of democracy in a digital age. Campaigns run on money. They can't just wait for the money to come to them.

The alternative is a world where campaigns are -entirely- funded by big donors looking for influence.

[malchior]

FWIW the 538 average currently shows Biden +8. I forget what the issues are with the RCP average, but my understanding is that it's not great.

These are looking at two different things. Nate's is the national one where there is a more high quality data. RCP's is based on the handful of lower quality polls focused on the individual battleground states they 'hand selected'. I'd say the National is more useful with the RCP one being close to useless unless someone can find a correlation between these states that tracks their headline number. It's probably weak at best. I could run it through a decision tree algo -- a machine learning algorithm that gives you a measure of the predictive power of an input to the outcome of the model -- to get a hint but the small population would make that a really suspect outcome.

[The Meal]

this is right on the heals of the 2020 Republican convention

There was no healing there.

[Defiant]

I mean, looking at the battleground states makes more sense, but there isn't much data right now, and it's not transparent at all. And it's more useful to look at them individually rather than as a group. (Indeed, here is an exercise to the reader: compare the state of the races in each of the battleground states in 2016 and 2020 and report here what you find).

[Defiant]

this is right on the heals of the 2020 Republican convention

There was no healing there.

[Defiant]

This is click bait at this point IMO. It provides little predictive insight. Biden is +5 in PA & FL (but again the polls are lower quality). Unless there is some weird weighting going on in their 'average' just means he is worse off somewhere else.

Going by Fivethirtyeight's polling numbers, it looks like the worse battleground states for Biden would be NC, OH, GA, TX and IA, where the races are all within about a point or two. (But again, lower quality polls).

[Defiant]

The latest Military Times poll shows a continued decline in active-duty service members’ views of President Donald Trump and a slight but significant preference for former Vice President Joe Biden in the upcoming November election among troops surveyed.

Among active-duty service members surveyed in the poll, 41 percent said they would vote for Biden, the Democratic nominee, if the election was held today. Only 37 percent said they plan to vote to re-elect Trump.

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pent ... for-biden/

[Ralph-Wiggum]

This is click bait at this point IMO. It provides little predictive insight. Biden is +5 in PA & FL (but again the polls are lower quality). Unless there is some weird weighting going on in their 'average' just means he is worse off somewhere else.

Going by Fivethirtyeight's polling numbers, it looks like the worse battleground states for Biden would be NC, OH, GA, TX and IA, where the races are all within about a point or two. (But again, lower quality polls).

The fact that Texas and Iowa are considered battleground states to begin with bodes well for Biden.

[Defiant]

This is click bait at this point IMO. It provides little predictive insight. Biden is +5 in PA & FL (but again the polls are lower quality). Unless there is some weird weighting going on in their 'average' just means he is worse off somewhere else.

Going by Fivethirtyeight's polling numbers, it looks like the worse battleground states for Biden would be NC, OH, GA, TX and IA, where the races are all within about a point or two. (But again, lower quality polls).

The fact that Texas and Iowa are considered battleground states to begin with bodes well for Biden.

Well, I'm *assuming* they're considered battlegrounds by RCP, but given the closeness of the races there currently, I don't think it's a big leap.

[Carpet_pissr]

Granholm estimated that about 4% of trump voters in MI won't admit their support to pollsters or anyone outside of their close friends and family. I figure she probably knows MI voters as well as anyone and better than most.

I don’t buy it. There’s no consequences to telling a pollster, no shame. Every Trump voter I know shares two important features: they are *proud* of it; and they won’t shut up about it.

Right. Those are not the ones we are referring to. It's the people who won't admit it (even to strangers, maybe ESPECIALLY to strangers) that we're talking about, by definition. My Mom and Dad are great examples maybe. Dad will absolutely tell you he's voting for treasonous moron, and while he doesn't talk about politics around ME anymore (after several nasty blowups), I know he is very active and very hardcore Republican. Mom is the shy Trump voter. Grudgingly agrees with me that Trump is an egotistical nightmare, but...." that Biden....I don't know. I just don't think I can push the button for him."

I've known my Mom for a long time. I know her well. This is Mom-speak for "I'm totally voting for Trump but I know you really follow this and I don't want you to think I am a) stupid b) uninformed or c) supporting a garbage treason monster, so I will deflect and defer because Trump's messages on x DO resonate with me (hopefully at a subconscious level, but maybe not ) ."

And there are definite consequences for us, as weird humans, to admitting something that we suspect in our hearts is a bad thing, or even if we don't think it's "bad", we think a LOT of other people think it's bad. Social/political capital. Face. All kinds of reasons we come up with in our fucked up heads that don't make logical sense but absolutely drive our behavior in cases like this. Admissions to strangers about gambling, or drinking are two examples off the top of my head where people totally lie to strangers with no seeming consequence.

[El Guapo]

This is click bait at this point IMO. It provides little predictive insight. Biden is +5 in PA & FL (but again the polls are lower quality). Unless there is some weird weighting going on in their 'average' just means he is worse off somewhere else.

Going by Fivethirtyeight's polling numbers, it looks like the worse battleground states for Biden would be NC, OH, GA, TX and IA, where the races are all within about a point or two. (But again, lower quality polls).

The fact that Texas and Iowa are considered battleground states to begin with bodes well for Biden.

Well, I'm *assuming* they're considered battlegrounds by RCP, but given the closeness of the races there currently, I don't think it's a big leap.

I mean, Obama did win Iowa in 2008 and 2012, so while it's been trending red the last few years it's not totally shocking to me that it could be in play. Texas is one of the states where if it's close, even if Trump wins it in the end, it probably spells real trouble for Trump.

[The Meal]

This is Mom-speak for "I'm... a) stupid b) ."

[Daehawk]

I could place a safe bet in Vegas as to how TN will vote.

[El Guapo]

So I conflated someone else's 4% estimate with her agreement. BTW, so far Biden has not campaigned in MI.

1) I buy there are "shy" Trump voters and have stated as much. I buy there are people who want to protect theirs and won't want to talk about it unless pressed. Being polled is not being pressed. I don't think there are Trump voting liars, so much but still quiet, even after these past five years, definitely. And again, I don't think these "shy" voters are 2A, ProLife, uneducated, bigots. I think they see Trumpublicans as protecting theirs. (I think they are wrong but I think that is their motivation)

2) And why I posted, is Biden does have ads and lord knows I get a lot more stupid unsolicited Biden texts than I do Trump texts. Texting me does not endear me to your cause. Just sayin'. Door knocking and invading my phone do nothing but annoy me and I then associate you with annoying and being intrusive.

There’s Still No Evidence Trump Voters Are Particularly ‘Shy’.

There are other articles like this. The point is that evidence for a 'shy' Trump voter in heavily anecdotal. Are there examples of actual shy Trump voters out there? Sure. Is there concrete reason to believe that they are material in number? Not especially, especially since the final polls were pretty dead-on in 2016.

Also even anecdotally, given that the 'shy' Trump voter is driven by community expectations, there should be at least some 'shy' Biden voters as well. Like, if you live in red areas surrounded by MAGA hats and signs, the community pressure would be pushing you in the pro-Trump direction, so logically some of those people might say that they're uncertain or leaning Trump or what have you when they are planning to vote for Biden.

[Octavious]

In my area I 100% think there's more shy Biden supporters than shy Trump supporters. I'm in a deep red town and there's just one sign for Biden on my road and I know I would never put one up myself. I'm terrified what will happen if Trump loses and don't want a target on my head.

[The Meal]

I could place a safe bet in Vegas as to how TN will vote.

If you put $100 on DEM, you'd win $1100 in return. (Conversely, if you bet $1600 on REP, you'd win $100 in return.)

[Carpet_pissr]

So I conflated someone else's 4% estimate with her agreement. BTW, so far Biden has not campaigned in MI.

1) I buy there are "shy" Trump voters and have stated as much. I buy there are people who want to protect theirs and won't want to talk about it unless pressed. Being polled is not being pressed. I don't think there are Trump voting liars, so much but still quiet, even after these past five years, definitely. And again, I don't think these "shy" voters are 2A, ProLife, uneducated, bigots. I think they see Trumpublicans as protecting theirs. (I think they are wrong but I think that is their motivation)

2) And why I posted, is Biden does have ads and lord knows I get a lot more stupid unsolicited Biden texts than I do Trump texts. Texting me does not endear me to your cause. Just sayin'. Door knocking and invading my phone do nothing but annoy me and I then associate you with annoying and being intrusive.

There’s Still No Evidence Trump Voters Are Particularly ‘Shy’.

There are other articles like this. The point is that evidence for a 'shy' Trump voter in heavily anecdotal. Are there examples of actual shy Trump voters out there? Sure. Is there concrete reason to believe that they are material in number? Not especially, especially since the final polls were pretty dead-on in 2016.

Also even anecdotally, given that the 'shy' Trump voter is driven by community expectations, there should be at least some 'shy' Biden voters as well. Like, if you live in red areas surrounded by MAGA hats and signs, the community pressure would be pushing you in the pro-Trump direction, so logically some of those people might say that they're uncertain or leaning Trump or what have you when they are planning to vote for Biden.

Oh I absolutely believe there would be shy Biden voters as well. If you are like me, a "bright blue dot in a really red state", I do think there is social pressure. Fortunately for me, my case is more of "bright blue city in a really red state", but still. Qanon flag. Backyard neighbor.

And maybe it's enough to offset the Shumpsters (just made that up), but I doubt it (careful with confirmation bias there, though).

I guess the real and only meaningful question is are there enough of those Shumpsters to actually make a difference in the election, forget the polls. I'm inclined to believe the numbers IF someone took a look at it using "real" statistical methodology, as opposed to some journalist compiling numbers in all kinds of ways.

[El Guapo]

Is it possible that shy Trump voters could have a material effect on the results? Sure, a lot if possible. But I'm WAY more worried about foreign interference, voter suppression, and Trump electoral shenanigans than shy Trump voters.

If that makes you feel better.

[Enough]

Is it possible that shy Trump voters could have a material effect on the results? Sure, a lot if possible. But I'm WAY more worried about foreign interference, voter suppression, and Trump electoral shenanigans than shy Trump voters.

If that makes you feel better.

This plus fomenting race violence and the other worst parts of society to get more votes.

[El Guapo]

Is it possible that shy Trump voters could have a material effect on the results? Sure, a lot if possible. But I'm WAY more worried about foreign interference, voter suppression, and Trump electoral shenanigans than shy Trump voters.

If that makes you feel better.

This plus fomenting race violence and the other worst parts of society to get more votes.

eh, there's not a lot of evidence that that's helped Trump to date. That could change going forward, of course, but that's not currently that high on my worry list.

[Scraper]

Living in a Red area every Trump voter I know is proud to display their love for him. I don't know any shy Trumpsters at all. I do know several shy Biden supporters.

[El Guapo]

Also, as long as we're talking anecdotal evidence, the progressive wing / left seems way more behind Biden than they were re: Clinton in 2016. Not that they love Biden by any means, but 95%+ of the progressive kvetching that I've seen online re: Biden has come with a preface of "I'm 100% voting for him in November, BUT [progressive complaint]".

I think a large chunk of those folks would desert Biden in 2024 (depending on the GOP nominee), but seems like they're overwhelming in for 2020.

[Octavious]

I'm pretty sure that if Biden wins he's not going to run for a second term. I hope that's something we need to worry about.

[El Guapo]

I'm pretty sure that if Biden wins he's not going to run for a second term. I hope that's something we need to worry about.

People keep assuming this without any evidence, including lots of people saying that Biden has said that he would only serve one term, when he's very explicitly denied that. If Biden wins in 2020, I think there's a 80%+ chance that he runs for reelection. And the bulk of that 20% is from scenarios where Biden's health sharply declines before 2024.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/stat ... 02823?s=20

Spoiler:

Military Times poll: Joe Biden leads Trump by six points among the troops, 43-37.

In October 2016, Trump led Hillary by 20 points in the same poll.

Trump's favorability among the troops is now at -12, the worst of his presidency.

Going out on a limb, but perhaps allowing bounties on the military makes them not like you very much?

[stessier]

I really don't want an 80 year old President. Honestly, I don't think a 70 year old should be President either. Sigh.

[malchior]

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/stat ... 02823?s=20

Spoiler:

Military Times poll: Joe Biden leads Trump by six points among the troops, 43-37.

In October 2016, Trump led Hillary by 20 points in the same poll.

Trump's favorability among the troops is now at -12, the worst of his presidency.

Going out on a limb, but perhaps allowing bounties on the military makes them not like you very much?

I've seen accounts where service members say that even without the bounties the situation was bad for Trump. They do not like how we abandoned the Kurds and his cozying up to Russia. Service members have first hand seen Russia making dangerous approaches with naval vessels, airplanes, and recently they rammed one of our vehicles in Syria. Without a major comment from the President, SecDef, SecState, anybody really. There CinC doesn't stand up for them and they see it. The bounties probably tipped it hard.