Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[malchior]

Someone posted it in that thread and IT NEVER GETS OLD. I think we have enough proof that is exactly what wealth does. Assuming that they'll be untouched by whatever crisis is going to happen. Sort of how billionaires like Larry Page and Peter Thiel bought citizenship from New Zealand to prep for the end of the world.

https://twitter.com/lukeliao1/status/14 ... 7864385545

[Smoove_B]

I'm trying my best to follow the booster argument as there seems to be strong evidence across numerous studies that Delta is impacting the potential effectiveness of those vaccinated, namely lowering overall immunity (and therefore increasing risk).

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/14 ... 4131934209

I wouldn't label Dr. Topol as an "alarmist", but I'm waiting for others to chime in. If his interpretation is true...trouble.

Again, the data is telling us that vaccines protect against serious illness and death, but if waning immunity means its more likely that vaccinated people can catch and spread the virus, that's...not good.

[malchior]

Again, the data is telling us that vaccines protect against serious illness and death, but if waning immunity means its more likely that vaccinated people can catch and spread the virus, that's...not good.

It is troubling but alarmism hardly matters anymore. Everyone is tapped out, it is looking like there are just too many COVID fatalists. They think since we can't win we should embrace the void. And when the void comes for them then they'll scream why didn't you protect us. Modern man is just too weak. How long did the black plague ravish Europe? Almost a decade? I forget but 18 months of home delivery, work from home, and kids running around we are somehow stretched beyond our limits (obviously minimizing a lot here but I more meant - we don't know what bad could look like).

Edit: speaking of fatalism

https://mobile.twitter.com/atrupar/stat ... 4660417543

[Smoove_B]

Knowing that it's not just unvaccinated people in danger right now, but it's disproportionately unvaccinated poor people and various minority populations around the U.S. I'm not at all surprised that the GOP is pivoting to "Eh, we're all going to die from something..." as their official position. They know (and have experienced) better than average healthcare during the pandemic across the boards. Pushing marginalized people further into stress positions ultimately furthers the GOPs short-term agenda, so let's pursue that.

[Zarathud]

I am pretty sure medieval Europe poorly handled the plague even with their military might. The people went to masses to pray, burned out the sick, etc. We just hoped to do better.

[YellowKing]

I've seen the fatalism argument from anti-vax "friends" as well. Namely one video of a family practitioner who made a similar claim that these viruses essentially have to just run their course, and vaccination is only assisting in mutation.

[malchior]

I've seen the fatalism argument from anti-vax "friends" as well. Namely one video of a family practitioner who made a similar claim that these viruses essentially have to just run their course, and vaccination is only assisting in mutation.

Ah perhaps that family practitioner is a fan of the wise Joe Rogan and his 'experience'.

[LordMortis]

Again, the data is telling us that vaccines protect against serious illness and death, but if waning immunity means its more likely that vaccinated people can catch and spread the virus, that's...not good.

It is troubling but alarmism hardly matters anymore. Everyone is tapped out, it is looking like there are just too many COVID fatalists. They think since we can't win we should embrace the void. And when the void comes for them then they'll scream why didn't you protect us. Modern man is just too weak. How long did the black plague ravish Europe? Almost a decade? I forget but 18 months of home delivery, work from home, and kids running around we are somehow stretched beyond our limits (obviously minimizing a lot here but I more meant - we don't know what bad could look like).

Edit: speaking of fatalism

https://mobile.twitter.com/atrupar/stat ... 4660417543

She sounds like that comedian posted here several times.

[malchior]

She sounds like that comedian posted here several times.

Yup - Blaire Erskine. They are both from Georgia. Maybe Blaire is channeling MTG.

[Smoove_B]

Additional proof that the equation has changed:

Chicago health officials on Thursday reported 203 cases of COVID-19 connected to Lollapalooza, casting it as a number that was anticipated and not yet linked to any hospitalizations or deaths.

“Nothing unexpected here,” Department of Public Health Commissioner Dr. Allison Arwady said at a news conference. “No sign of a ‘superspreader event’. But clearly with hundreds of thousands of people attending Lollapalooza we would expect to see some cases.”

The four-day music festival, which started two weeks ago, drew about 385,000 people to a lakefront park. Critics questioned holding the event during the pandemic. Footage showed tightly packed crowds at concerts and on public transportation with few masks in sight. Last year’s festival was canceled because of COVID-19.

But Mayor Lori Lightfoot and other officials have defended the decision, saying there were safety protocols in place. Festival goers had to show proof of vaccination or a negative COVID-19 test and city officials said about 90% were vaccinated.

Crowded outdoor events with close contact and no making = potential spread. Delta is different.

She is right though - with almost 400K people, seeing only 203 cases is pretty impressive. Being outside likely still mitigates, but not completely.

Next up, lets see how Sturgis goes (ending on 8/15)...

[ImLawBoy]

My understanding is that Sturgis is different (and more dangerous) because so much of it is also indoors at bars.

[Smoove_B]

Yes, that's the theory and I believe the cases from 2020 were all tied to being in bars and tattoo parlors.

[El Guapo]

Additional proof that the equation has changed:

Chicago health officials on Thursday reported 203 cases of COVID-19 connected to Lollapalooza, casting it as a number that was anticipated and not yet linked to any hospitalizations or deaths.

“Nothing unexpected here,” Department of Public Health Commissioner Dr. Allison Arwady said at a news conference. “No sign of a ‘superspreader event’. But clearly with hundreds of thousands of people attending Lollapalooza we would expect to see some cases.”

The four-day music festival, which started two weeks ago, drew about 385,000 people to a lakefront park. Critics questioned holding the event during the pandemic. Footage showed tightly packed crowds at concerts and on public transportation with few masks in sight. Last year’s festival was canceled because of COVID-19.

But Mayor Lori Lightfoot and other officials have defended the decision, saying there were safety protocols in place. Festival goers had to show proof of vaccination or a negative COVID-19 test and city officials said about 90% were vaccinated.

Crowded outdoor events with close contact and no making = potential spread. Delta is different.

She is right though - with almost 400K people, seeing only 203 cases is pretty impressive. Being outside likely still mitigates, but not completely.

Next up, lets see how Sturgis goes (ending on 8/15)...

Is it that different? Do we have a sense of how many cases would've come out of a Lollapalooza event last year with standard / vanilla COVID?

Also even if the event is 100% outdoors I would assume that some of the participants would have wound up spending time indoors as well (going to bars / restaurants / home to bone down).

I don't know that I'm going to be flocking to crowded outdoor events anyway, but this article if anything makes me less worried, not more. Or am I missing something?

[Smoove_B]

I don't know that I'm going to be flocking to crowded outdoor events anyway, but this article if anything makes me less worried, not more. Or am I missing something?

I think it's important to contrast with the various protests and marches that took place last summer (when we were under siege from antifa). I'm not aware of *any* outbreaks that were tied to any type of mass gathering.

However, here even with vaccinations, there were still a few hundred cases - because Delta has changed things for the outdoor environment.

I would agree - it's not making me more or less worried, but it is confirming that crowded, unmasked environments should be avoided - regardless of indoor/outdoor status. Being outdoors still helps, but likely not as much as it did prior to Delta.

I'm still avoiding everything and everyone (for at least another 3 weeks until I'm apparently going back to work in person) as my SOP. I'd wanted to attend a few outdoor concerts, but I just don't think I'm there yet - at least while Delta is rampaging.

[Brian]

This is the 2021 Sturgis Bike Rally

I predict there will be a lot of used Harley's for sale in the next couple of months.

[Paingod]

At least one of them wore a mask.

I'm having serious personal difficulty with the latest swing in COVID. It's making me very bitter and angry.

In 2020 I was more than happy to blame Florida Man for leading the nation into complete disaster, but had genuine sympathy for people who tried and still got sick. I was angry at idiots who refused to wear masks, but there wasn't much else anyone could do.

In 2021 vaccines are widely available and pretty damn effective, seemingly even dulling the bite of new variants. I have no sympathies at all left for those people who are ruining everything for everyone else deliberately. I've really hit a "You know what, fuck you. You deserve what's going to happen to you." wall with anti-maskers & anti-vaxxers.

I work in Vermont. The state has over 68% vaccination (with ~80% in the town I work in). We're shifting towards strong mask recommendations in areas because of that 32% (~20%). Where I work, the GM released a statement asking workers to mask up. Not requiring, but asking. The store workers are around 80% masked now and our customers are around 80% masked as well. Fuck you, 20%. Fuck you.

Doctors and nurses getting burned out again as the new wave rolls through? Them and children are about the only ones I have any sympathy left for, and as always, anyone who's actually tried (vaccinated/masked) but still gets sick.

I can't even figure out who to be angry at anymore. There's not just one demographic working to keep COVID around anymore.

Vaccinated people who wear their masks? Thank you. I'm sorry, but thank you.
Vaccinated people who don't want to put the mask back on? I'm annoyed, but I get it. You did your part and tried.
Vaccinated people who never wore a mask? You lucked out, but fuck you still.
Unvaccinated people who wear masks? I suppose you're sort of trying, but pull your head out of your ass and get the shot.
Unvaccinated people who refuse masks? You've punched your ticket. No sympathy.

For the immunocompromised, children, and medical professionals - I'm sorry. Still and always.

I'm just so angry over the idiocy of it all. >_<

A special two-finger salute to Jenny McCarthy and Florida Man for their combined efforts in killing hundreds of thousands, maybe millions, world-wide.

[msteelers]

Next up, lets see how Sturgis goes (ending on 8/15)...

Guess where my mom and step-father are right now…

[Smoove_B]

Do I even want to know if they're vaccinated?

[msteelers]

Luckily they are vaccinated.

Of course, my step-father is fighting lung cancer so he is immunocompromised. But Sturgis is a bucket list item for him, and this might be the last chance he gets if the drs timeline is right. I might be taking more risks in his situation too.

It’s shitty all the way around.

[Isgrimnur]

CNBC

A federal judge rejected on Friday a request by landlord groups to block the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s new eviction moratorium.

The decision by Judge Dabney Friedrich of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia is a win for the Biden administration.

More than 11 million Americans remain behind on their rent, moving the CDC to issue a new eviction ban earlier this month after its previous one expired on July 31. That protection applies until Oct. 3 and to places where Covid rates remain high.

The ruling was on technical grounds. Friedrich said the “Court’s hands are tied,” by an earlier appellate ruling to keep the moratorium in effect. She said the plaintiffs could challenge the policy with the D.C. Circuit.

Alabama landlords who made the request will probably appeal.

[Daehawk]

Gonna get ugly fast.

[TheMix]

"get"?

[Zarathud]

Luckily they are vaccinated.

Of course, my step-father is fighting lung cancer so he is immunocompromised. But Sturgis is a bucket list item for him, and this might be the last chance he gets if the drs timeline is right. I might be taking more risks in his situation too.

It’s shitty all the way around.

Damn. I’d hate to be juggling bucket lists that way. Hope it’s worth it, but I can see myself justifying one last trip to GenCon if I was in his shoes.

[Drazzil]

This is the 2021 Sturgis Bike Rally

I predict there will be a lot of used Harley's for sale in the next couple of months.

[Skinypupy]

Text I got from my brother this morning, an anesthesiologist in Nashville:

"Our hospital is officially transitioning to disaster status, phase purple. Limited outpatient services, limited OR's, moving staff to direct patient care from auxiliary positions, etc. We're at about 30 COVID + inpatients and have had as many as 23 patients waiting for beds in the ER at one time."

Good luck, everyone.

[Kraken]

This is the 2021 Sturgis Bike Rally

I predict there will be a lot of used Harley's for sale in the next couple of months.

Last year Sturgis drew >400k attendees, and only 800+ covid cases were identified as a result. Estimates of follow-on transmission range up to 200k, but that's an outlier. We don't know because contact tracing was basically nonexistent.

This year they are expecting close to the usual 750k participants, so simple arithmetic would lead us to expect around 1,600 direct cases. But past performance is no guarantee of future results. On one hand, we have vaccines now; OTOH, we have delta and relaxed countermeasures. We know the event will make a lot of people sick, but can't predict how many within an order of magnitude. One can only hope that most of those bikers will be going home to places like FL, TX, TN, and the other states that have chosen to embrace covid.

[Daehawk]

How many years until all the assholes are filtered out of the system?

[Freyland]

How many years until all the assholes are filtered out of the system?

I believe 38, according to the Global Warming thread.

[Kurth]

How many years until all the assholes are filtered out of the system?

I believe 38, according to the Global Warming thread.

Too true. Has there ever been a more depressing time to be alive?

[Zaxxon]

How many years until all the assholes are filtered out of the system?

I believe 38, according to the Global Warming thread.

Too true. Has there ever been a more depressing time to be alive?

I imagine the Dark Ages were pretty rough. Within the context of when I've been alive, this is the pits, though..

[Unagi]

Has there ever been a more depressing time to be alive?

Most certainly

[Little Raven]

Too true. Has there ever been a more depressing time to be alive?

The vast, VAST bulk of human history?

[Kurth]

How many years until all the assholes are filtered out of the system?

I believe 38, according to the Global Warming thread.

Too true. Has there ever been a more depressing time to be alive?

I imagine the Dark Ages were pretty rough. Within the context of when I've been alive, this is the pits, though..

I know it’s all relative, but aren’t we somewhat uniquely situated right now in that not only do things suck, but we are brutally aware of how bad they suck?

It’s not just that things really suck right now, it’s that things really suck and there’s no escape from that awareness. Unless you disconnect from society and the internet and crawl under a rock somewhere, you are going to get blasted with the suck from every angle 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

Democracy and liberal thought are failing. Truth is obsolete. COVID is destroying our lives and our society. The climate has been irreparably damaged. Wealth inequality has grown to an unimaginable extent.

And we know all of this. All the time.

I think this makes this time we’re living in right now especially challenging.

[Blackhawk]

I would accept 'uniquely challenging.'

It's also a matter of perspective. Compared to the rest of our personal experiences, this time sucks. Compared to history it's still in the top 1%. But we're living through our own experiences, not the black death, not the inquisition, not the Justinian plague, etc.

Interesting thought, though: Once you get past lifestyle (AC, medicine, etc), most of the awful times of human history were localized. There were periods where it was a terrible time to be alive in Rome, or in Mongolia, or in Bangladesh. But it was good times somewhere else. That isn't as true now. I'm sure there are pockets of pleasant out there, but the shit is hitting all of the fans at once right now.

[Blackhawk]

Ya know, the virus that started all of these problems is probably almost wiped out. It's a satisfying sort of thought.

Of course it was wiped out due to the delta variant, not us, but I'll take my false vengeance where I can get it.

[Little Raven]

I know it’s all relative, but aren’t we somewhat uniquely situated right now in that not only do things suck, but we are brutally aware of how bad they suck?

No. People in the past were neither stupid nor uninformed about the threats to their well-being. It's just that those threats were almost always infinitely more immediate than anything we're facing.

In the worst plausible scenario you can imagine, you still eat (and eat well!) for the next few months. For the vast bulk of humanity, that was no guarantee. There were any number of relatively likely events that meant you got to watch your family starve, with very little you could do about it. We are, quite literally, the wealthiest society our planet has ever seen. The poorest among us enjoy lives that most people throughout history would envy. The people on this board live better than most kings of old.

We're all prisoners of the recency bias, but let's try to keep a little perspective.

[malchior]

I know it’s all relative, but aren’t we somewhat uniquely situated right now in that not only do things suck, but we are brutally aware of how bad they suck?

No. People in the past were neither stupid nor uninformed about the threats to their well-being. It's just that those threats were almost always infinitely more immediate than anything we're facing.

In the worst plausible scenario you can imagine, you still eat (and eat well!) for the next few months. For the vast bulk of humanity, that was no guarantee. There were any number of relatively likely events that meant you got to watch your family starve, with very little you could do about it. We are, quite literally, the wealthiest society our planet has ever seen. The poorest among us enjoy lives that most people throughout history would envy. The people on this board live better than most kings of old.

We're all prisoners of the recency bias, but let's try to keep a little perspective.

This is all fair but Blackhawk has a good point about the uniqueness. And Kurth has a good point about knowing what is ahead. No humans have known with such a high level of certainty that their children or their grandchildren face one of the bleakest, most uncertain futures in human history. Even if it gets better we don't how much societal damage this remarkably unique virus has wrought. Or how the world order is likely going to go through a period of re-ordering that will have lasting impact on concepts of human rights and freedom of expression. *WE* might be fine in the relative short-term but that isn't why many have a such a deep sense of dread. So I'd caution anyone saying trying hard to force some perspective on this. There is no playbook for this or any analogue in history to point to.

[Little Raven]

There is no playbook for this or any analogue in history to point to.

The Bronze Age Collapse says hi.

Civilizations have collapsed before - many times, actually. Climate has changed, populations have migrated, and at no point in human history were people any dumber than they are now. Lots of them could see what was coming with perfect clarity - they just couldn't stop it. And sure, maybe the same thing will happen to us - but it hasn't happened yet.

[Daehawk]

These 8 states make up half of US Covid-19 hospitalizations. And the surge among the unvaccinated is overwhelming health care workers

Eight states, many of which have lagged the national average for vaccinations, have Covid-19 patients that account for at least 15% of their overall hospitalizations: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nevada and Texas, according to a CNN analysis of data from the US Department of Health and Human Services

"In the past week, Florida has had more Covid cases than all 30 states with the lowest case rates combined. And Florida and Texas alone have accounted for nearly 40% of new hospitalizations across the country," White House Covid-19 response coordinator Jeff Zients said Thursday during a White House briefing.

[malchior]

There is no playbook for this or any analogue in history to point to.

The Bronze Age Collapse says hi.

This would be relevant if we knew if late bronze age man knew that in 60-80 years prior to this that their civilization was marching into a collapse.

Climate has changed, populations have migrated, and at no point in human history were people any dumber than they are now. Lots of them could see what was coming with perfect clarity - they just couldn't stop it.

This isn't true...well ok...maybe Oracles were real?

And sure, maybe the same thing will happen to us - but it hasn't happened yet.

Nothing we can do about so why worry about it, amirite? I get it.