Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Jun 20, 2016 12:26 pm

CVS Health (CVS) was downgraded to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley. $104 price target. The company is facing increased competition in the PBM [Pharmacy Benefit Management -Isg.] market, Morgan Stanley said.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Jun 20, 2016 12:33 pm

Stupid Moran Stanley.

I'd still double down if I had the money.

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Tue Jun 21, 2016 8:11 pm

Hmmm... Tesla down $26 in after hours trading after announcing desire to merge with Elon Musk's Solar City:

On Tuesday, Tesla announced it intends to acquire the solar power business Solar City, provided shareholders of both companies approve the purchase. In a conference call with reporters, Elon Musk said that Tesla "thinks this is a huge opportunity to have a highly integrated sustainable energy company, from generation to storage to transport." It's a move Musk said he's been thinking about for many years, and that the timing seemed right with Tesla's recent activities in energy storage.

Some more in-depth info:

it's worth considering the rationale laid out. There's none of the usual talk of accretion -- how could there be when both companies are solid loss-makers? Instead, the general flavor of Tesla's rationale was summed up here:

We would be the world’s only vertically integrated energy company offering end-to-end clean energy products to our customers. This would start with the car that you drive and the energy that you use to charge it, and would extend to how everything else in your home or business is powered.

It sounds like a compelling vision; a one-stop shop for renewable energy powering where you live and what you drive. SolarCity's workers could put up some panels on your roof and install a Tesla Powerwall home battery, and maybe a charger for your Model S while they're at it. They'll even lend you the money to pay for it. Customers, given their "shared ideals" with the two companies, will want to embrace solar energy in all its forms...

...Tesla is jumping in as SolarCity's entire business model is being openly questioned amid rapid cash burn and stubbornly high overheads. The company's revamped solar loan product -- as opposed to its usual business of leasing panels -- looks like an effort to raise cash at the cost of future profitability. Tesla swooping in now can look opportunistic or like a mission of mercy, depending on your point of view...

...What is clear is that Tesla so far this year has already made pledges about living within its means, only to then boost its spending plans and tap shareholders for $2.3 billion of fresh capital. Its existing mission of transforming the global car business is challenging enough that Musk says he sometimes camps out overnight at the factory. And Tesla's new, accelerated growth target, while offering a thrill, compounds the challenge.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:05 am

So how far does the market fall before I put in more money I shouldn't put in? I figured it would September before I rebuilt savings good enough to put more money in SPY but I imagine the EU kerfuffle is going to leave me cursing my current investments concurrently with me wanting to put more money in.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:18 am

LordMortis wrote:So how far does the market fall before I put in more money I shouldn't put in? I figured it would September before I rebuilt savings good enough to put more money in SPY but I imagine the EU kerfuffle is going to leave me cursing my current investments concurrently with me wanting to put more money in.

Don't feel rushed. Watch, observe, swing when ready. There's a once in a lifetime opportunity a few times a week, every week.

I will probably exit my shorts today but I'm going to wait and see on spending the profits.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:21 am

LawBeefaroni wrote:Don't feel rushed. Watch, observe, swing when ready. There's a once in a lifetime opportunity a few times a week, every week.

Man, howcome I'm not rich yet?

I have to prepare to swing when I want to swing. I have to move money from one account to a scottrade friendly account and then get scottrade to recognize the money is there and then request the money to move and then wait for that change to effect.

I don't mind the wait, generally. It keeps like a wait on purchasing a handgun for someone who's pissed off. I was surprised that there is then a further several day wait on funds for securities that cost less than $.30 to purchase. But again, it keeps me from doing stupid things, so ultimately, I'm OK with it.

It does make me wonder, if it's ever time to sell and make a withdraw how long that whole process will take. I hope not to have to find out for years to come.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:23 am

Also, fwiw, I'm still overwhelmingly long overall. My trading accounts are where I do this sort if thing, which are like 10 percent of the total.

Two very different objectives and strategies.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:33 am

Everything I do, I do for long, it's just a question of when I put money in.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Jun 27, 2016 12:26 pm

Indexes down over 1% today so far as well. I guess it's a good idea that I didn't put my money in last week.

Oh, and thanks for the unsolicited investing advice, Mom, but I'm not throwing half my existing deposits into bonds. There's 19.5 years until I can get to the funds and 29 years until the house is paid off. I'm fine playing the long game at the moment.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:06 pm

I saw it valley to in the 198s briefly. If the toughs get to the 180s in the next coming days and that doesn't look like part of coming landslide, I'll likely drain some savings I shouldn't drain. I was thinking my next window for having cash to invest was looking like September at the earliest. If I feel like Now Now Now then this will likely be my last investment for the year, unless I can pull of rebuilding my savings through all my crazy expenses and still somehow find enough to put into VZ. I thought I was going to have strong year for tucking money away but house and health and a new computer are seeing to it that my wage is a sustenance wage.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:42 pm

Circuit breaker

Trading in Barclays and RBS shares was suspended on Monday morning following heavy losses on the London Stock Exchange.

Barclays share price fell by 10.3 per cent and RBS fell 15 per cent on Monday morning, triggering automatic circuit breakers that kick in when a share price falls more than 8 per cent.
...
Barclays and RBS shares were offline for about five minutes, a spokesperson for the London Stock Exchange said.
...
Barclays was trading at 127.20, down 17.35 per cent, while RBS was trading at 173.79p, down 15.35 per cent, by the time the stock exchange closed on Monday.

Lloyds was down 10.26 per cent at 51.15p, after falling more than 20 per cent on Monday.

RBS shares have lost £10 billion in their market value since Thursday, or more than the net contribution of the UK to the EU in 2015, which was estimated to be about £8.5 billion. The net contribution is the difference between what the UK paid to the EU and what it got back in spending in the UK.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Jun 27, 2016 2:49 pm

MarketWatch

The U.K. was stripped of its AAA credit rating by S&P Global Ratings on Monday after British voters last week voted to pull the country out of the European Union. S&P lowered the rating to AA. “In our opinion, this outcome is a seminal event, and will lead to a less predictable, stable, and effective policy framework in the U.K.,” S&P said, in a news release. The downgrade also reflects worries about the risks of a “marked deterioration” in the U.K.’s external financing conditions given the country’s already elevated gross external financing requirements, S&P said. Competing ratings firms Moody’s and Fitch had lowered the U.K. credit rating ahead of last week’s referendum. S&P also said it was maintaining its negative outlook on the U.K.’s credit rating, citing the risk to the country’s “economic prospects, fiscal and external performance, and the role of sterling as a reserve currency, as well as risks to the constitutional and economic integrity of the U.K. if there is another referendum on Scottish independence.”

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Jun 29, 2016 12:48 pm

I'm impressed the (initial?) bottom wasn't much lower than we saw. I never took an opportunity to increase my holdings and I don't feel bad. My savings is already too low and July and August and possibly September are going to continue to be very high bills and summer taxes months.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Fri Jul 08, 2016 2:33 pm

I don't think my little portfolio has seen a one day gain like today. So far it's about a 2% gain for everything combined and I am at a personal high.

So I won't kick myself for not getting more SPY for under 200, figuring it would drop further because it will fall again.

Also July marks the third month in a row I am living in the red and August appears as though it's going to be the fourth. So I really can't feel bad about not putting more money away as my humble savings is moving in the wrong direction every month.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 2:42 pm

AMD just keeps going.

I have some shares and some long calls. I did some verticals as kind of a mini-bet to limit my cost because I felt like I was putting too much in already. Jan 17 at $4.5/$7. The $7s are almost in the damned money. I think when I bought them the $4.5s were barely ITM.

Should have listened to Kenny.

"Win big, lose big. No even-Stevens."
-Kenny Dennis

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Thu Jul 28, 2016 3:05 pm

Took at look at my F today. That was mistake. Ford announced the Brexit outcome vote is going to cost them about a billion short term and that statement seems to have tanked the stock on a day when just about everyone else went up up up. I wonder how many others are going to come forward with similar statements.

https://next.ft.com/content/5f20ead4-54 ... bdc13c3bef

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Thu Jul 28, 2016 3:17 pm

Thanks for revealing the reason for the drop...just glanced at it earlier but didn't take the time to read the results.

Time to load up (more)!

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Tue Aug 02, 2016 9:46 am

Carpet_pissr wrote:Thanks for revealing the reason for the drop...just glanced at it earlier but didn't take the time to read the results.

Time to load up (more)!

If it dips below $12 raising dividends to 5%, I'm likely to bite, even though I can't afford to and it concentrates way too much of savings into one stock that should be put into Index funds if I pull it out of my savings at all.

edit:

Right about now, at under $11.90, I'd be ready to jump but as it turns out I don't think I'm ready to part with my savings even if I think it's a good buy. I just have too many financial liabilities going on right now to put more money in the market aka toward my retirement.

Ah well, I'll keep an eye out and see if it continues to drop and changes my mind.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue Aug 02, 2016 2:20 pm

Took a nibble.

Cortilian · Post by **Cortilian** » Wed Aug 03, 2016 1:03 pm

Need a bit more advice please. I posted earlier about my wife having her pension send her a lump sum because they are closing down. We have it in an IRA savings account right now that the check finally showed and the banks investor wants us to put it in a fixed index annuity. We have 15-20 years before we will use the money. We do not feel comfortable with the fixed index annuity. Just seems like we aren't getting the best bang for the buck. We have been looking at a couple of options and I'd like opinions. I'm pretty novice about these things. We have money saved for retirement but it is in work 401K's, etc.

1st is http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-fu ... fund/psiax I like the idea of index funds. Stocks go up and you make money. Since we can keep the fund a long time I like it.

Another is http://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/PDBAX/quote.html This is another one the banker likes. I don't see anything I don't like with it.

Any advice would be appreciated. We want to get the money out of the IRA savings account and making money but are kind of gun shy. May even wait until after the election. Thanks again.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Aug 03, 2016 1:10 pm

Cortilian wrote: kind of gun shy. May even wait until after the election.

I'm no good with advice about specific stocks but I can empathize with this sentiment. I was this >< close to pulling the trigger on more F yesterday but the election is scaring me enough to keep back a larger savings and I also know that I should be putting more into index funds before I put more into individual securities.

And so, as my savings slowly rebuilds from some very high spending months and my last investments before that, I'm back and forth on taking in opportunities, increasing my SPY, and holding to see what November brings. So far November is winning, and I'm not wholly uncomfortable with that. It's nice to have a little cushion building in my savings.

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Wed Aug 03, 2016 9:58 pm

Cort, just do a broad based index and be done with it. If you can do ETFs, SPY is fine. Others like equal weights like RSP. Your PSAIX should be fine too.

Doesn't really matter, but don't do an annuity. Typically bankers get a commission when they sell an annuity which is why they push them.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Wed Aug 03, 2016 10:21 pm

noxiousdog wrote:Cort, just do a broad based index and be done with it. If you can do ETFs, SPY is fine. Others like equal weights like RSP. Your PSAIX should be fine too.

Doesn't really matter, but don't do an annuity. Typically bankers get a commission when they sell an annuity which is why they push them.

This. Index all the way.

Cortilian · Post by **Cortilian** » Thu Aug 04, 2016 8:04 am

Thanks all. That is what we are going to do

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Aug 04, 2016 9:29 am

Depending on the size of the lump, you might want to split it up among a few broad indices (S&P, DOW, NASDAQ...). But yeah, beware any annuity that a banker is pushing hard. They get big commissions on FIAs.

LordMortis wrote:I was this >< close to pulling the trigger on more F yesterday but the election is scaring me enough to keep back a larger savings and I also know that I should be putting more into index funds before I put more into individual securities.

I'm still trying to figure out why F $8 Jan 17 calls were $4 when F was around $11.97. I know there is what, $0.30 in dividends to come out, but sheesh. Had to jump on that.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Thu Aug 04, 2016 9:57 am

LawBeefaroni wrote:I'm still trying to figure out why F $8 Jan 17 calls were $4 when F was around $11.97. I know there is what, $0.30 in dividends to come out, but sheesh. Had to jump on that.

One day I will understand what all of that means. I get the basic gist of calls and puts and options and shorts and such. I've done lots of reading and paid attention but when I see real lingo, it's Greek.

I so wanted to pick up more F when it was down to $11.90ish but as with any gamble, you can't be everywhere all the time or you'll find yourself broke. So I try to more or less stick the plan and the plan is to build savings, increase my SPY, build savings, look at where VZ is at when I have enough built up. Right now building savings for SPY looks like it should cash in shortly before the election, so I may be holding off until after the election. We'll see.

But damned increassing F was tempting. Unless they actually scale back on dividends 5%+ was soooo hard to turn. 5% is all I'm really hoping for long term.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Aug 04, 2016 10:31 am

Basically I paid $4/share for the option to buy Ford shares at $8 come January 2017. Considering that shares were right around $12, that seems cheap for 4-5 months of time. Like I said, I think they pay $0.30 in dividends between now and then so I miss out on that but as long as F is a few pennies above $12 by Jan it's a win. Though I'm thinking more like I cash out as soon as it nears $13 (hopefully well before January).

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Thu Aug 04, 2016 10:40 am

LawBeefaroni wrote:Basically I paid $4/share for the option to buy Ford shares at $8 come January 2017. Considering that shares were right around $12, that seems cheap for 4-5 months of time. Like I said, I think they pay $0.30 in dividends between now and then so I miss out on that but as long as F is a few pennies above $12 by Jan it's a win. Though I'm thinking more like I cash out as soon as it nears $13 (hopefully well before January).

Ah. Hopefully I remember this stuff.

I don't have faith that it will rise above $13 before January. I do have faith it will continue to give me $.15 per share per quarter and that's worth under $12 a share to me. I just don't have the money to give.

If I understood options, I'd have bought F at $8 a share for a commitment in January in heartbeat but I don't understand that game and games I don't understand when money is on the line scare the hell out of me. I make decisions without the details and then "oh! I didn't know that" comes back and kicks me in the ass.

Like, "Oh, I didn't know investing in a partnership works completely differently than investing in a corporation on your taxes and how you declare them and how you make or lose money and what you need to report and..."

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Mon Aug 08, 2016 1:03 pm

Sales growth is slowing for US auto manufacturers, and some call it a cyclical category (but I don't see it in the graphs, personally, even maxed out), but this is temporary IMO. China is starting to warm up again, and they love buying American cars (especially Fords).

Buying (even) more here. F is one of those I will sit on for years, and buy more strategically when/if it gets whomped (as it did last week).

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Aug 15, 2016 10:26 am

Aside from a tiny gamble to learn about limit trades and speculation in stocks that cost pennies (that is not doing so great), today's payday marks the first time I've had enough savings to consider putting more money in the indexes since my CVS <ugh> back in April. Then I see how high the indexes are, and I'm thinking maybe I could build my savings a little higher before upping my holdings in the indexes. I suppose it's a win/win. Either the indexes continue to inflate, in which case my portfolio looks better for pittance I've put in or it hits a rocky road and I feel alright to dump some more money in.

MHS' thread has me thinking that I should build a stronger case in the indexes and less of a percentage in individual securities. I'm a sucker for good dividend stocks but I need to remember that this is mostly really a long term savings plan and not fun money where I can play without having a full understanding of what's going on. I had planned to be able to but some SPY and maybe some VZ before the end of the year but to balance things out I think it's going to be just SPY, VT, and VTI for the foreseeable future, except for maybe a little individual security purchase in my 2017 Roth IRA at the beginning of next year.

Anyhow, while the market is high, it's good to have a little savings for the saving for what feels like the first time since around Christmas. So now is when I'll feel compelled to watch the market until it's all wrapped accounted for.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Aug 15, 2016 10:37 am

Dividend ETFs

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Aug 15, 2016 10:43 am

Isgrimnur wrote:Dividend ETFs

Oh harsh.

That's just cruel. I'm trying to steer away from the temptation of my natural instincts toward the much more reasonable indexes and/or hold my little amount of money in savings and you taunt me.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Aug 15, 2016 11:00 am

Forget about it today and I'm sure you'll post something that reminds me to remind you later.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Aug 15, 2016 11:05 am

Isgrimnur wrote:Forget about it today and I'm sure you'll post something that reminds me to remind you later.

Too late. I already put VYM and VYMI in my investments to track and study and learn about list. But yeah, I need to forget about them for now and engage in the idea of them next year, maybe.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Aug 17, 2016 10:00 am

Broke down and increased my SPY on the downturn this morning, we'll see if I was too early and by how much. Now I won't have that temptation to look at those "high dividends indexes" probably until December and by December I'll be more concerned about saving enough to max my 2017 IRA contribution.... Unless the market goes crazy for the election, the I'll probably decimate my savings again, like I did in March/April, which I still haven't fully rebuilt.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Aug 24, 2016 4:20 pm

While, I won't have money for a while and the next time I have money, I'm likely to put it in VYM (damn you, Izzy) After that or more probably with some of my 2017 IRA money, which is likely to come sooner I'm looking at IHI.

What pitfalls should I be looking for before I think about this? It's sort of investing in the enemy. Every fiber of my being says we need to reel in medical supplies costs. But at what point do you decide you if you can't beat them?

This is, of course, inspired by the Epipen outrage that has come up this week, about month after NPR first started talking about it.

https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239 ... lsrc=aw.ds

(Ideally I'd find a broad index but this EFT keeps popping up)

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Wed Aug 24, 2016 4:45 pm

I aim to please.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Wed Aug 24, 2016 5:07 pm

So just entered the market recently. Went with two items.

First FB- i simply think its a good long term play...ie 5-10 years. I think they have a lot going for it and i think they are at a good intersection to get VR right, and if not then they'll buy the company that does. IN terms of VR i think they can really integrate it in a social way as well.

Second - AMD - this was a bit of a gamble, but i think i might exit out of it in 1-2 years. I like reviews the latest cards have gotten for one. Secondly the Zen architecture got some good buzz on it. I caught it last week in the midst of its little surge, but have no regrets yet. The downside is they have some heavy debt load which is worrisome. I think the first exit point for me will be in Feb. after the xmas retailing season. Not sure if i want to hold it long term though. Really will depend.

I was wondering the cause for the down day today and i think it was pre market positioning on Yellen's speech.

Anyway, when you guys start really digging into stocks what do you do? What do you look at? I know look at the balance sheets, look at P/E and its cohort and so forth. But what else do you guys do besides balance sheet investigation? Where do you go to find out info? Trying to build my tool kit in investigating stocks right now. I have still have a good chunk of change that I can dip into the market, but I dont want to yet till after Yellen's speech and I want to see how September does in terms of volatility.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Wed Aug 24, 2016 5:12 pm

If you're worried about volatility, I wouldn't be putting in any money before the election.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Wed Aug 24, 2016 5:27 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:If you're worried about volatility, I wouldn't be putting in any money before the election.

Not really worried about volatility. I think Hillary is gonna win so my outlook is shaped by that (ie infrastructure, clean energy will be winners). I am curious as to what September will bring though, and if there is a downswing there are a couple of stocks i might pick up. Or i might just wait till I feel more comfortable. I still feel as if i have to do more digging and understanding of the stocks. It's just this my first Sept. really having skin in the game so to speak. I mean i've followed market news, but never this closely as to try to figure out the why's of the swings and such. To further this investigation of mine I've been listening/watching This course on investing. Its pretty good and almost done with it.