Super Bowl LI

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Mon Jan 23, 2017 4:53 pm

stessier wrote:Take a few minutes and read the oral history of the Snow Game if you need to really let the hate flow through you.

I refuse to even click on that link, for the sake of my blood pressure.

gameoverman · Post by **gameoverman** » Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:23 pm

I just don't see how the Patriots keep Jones from doing his thing. Going into this game I think the Falcons have 14 points already just from the touchdowns you know he's going to have. So I see Atlanta winning this and Julio Jones being SB MVP.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:35 pm

gameoverman wrote:I just don't see how the Patriots keep Jones from doing his thing. Going into this game I think the Falcons have 14 points already just from the touchdowns you know he's going to have. So I see Atlanta winning this and Julio Jones being SB MVP.

How good are the Falcons' other receivers? Traditionally the approach would be something like double cover Jones and see if the other receivers can kill you. But I haven't seen Jones play, and people seem to describe him as a superhero, so we'll see I guess.

rshetts2 · Post by **rshetts2** » Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:49 pm

Atlanta has certainly looked good, but I think they have capitalized mostly on the other team's mistakes.

Yeah because they have nothing to do with causing those mistakes. They just happen to pick the week when teams fall apart. Damn those lucky Falcons.

Jeff V · Post by **Jeff V** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 10:18 am

El Guapo wrote:But I haven't seen Jones play, and people seem to describe him as a superhero, so we'll see I guess.

Underdog was a superhero. Jones is better than Underdog.

Apollo · Post by **Apollo** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 11:22 am

El Guapo wrote:
gameoverman wrote:I just don't see how the Patriots keep Jones from doing his thing. Going into this game I think the Falcons have 14 points already just from the touchdowns you know he's going to have. So I see Atlanta winning this and Julio Jones being SB MVP.
How good are the Falcons' other receivers? Traditionally the approach would be something like double cover Jones and see if the other receivers can kill you. But I haven't seen Jones play, and people seem to describe him as a superhero, so we'll see I guess.

Jones is Atlanta's best weapon, but the strength of this team all season has been the fact that they have so many good receivers, including both running backs. Heck, Julio missed two games late in the season and the Falcons never missed a beat. What has really elevated this team in the last several weeks has been the defense finally solidifying after a total rebuild under the new head coach.

Apollo · Post by **Apollo** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 11:26 am

Skinypupy wrote:
Jaymann wrote:Did even the most rabid Falcons fan dream of this ass whooping?
The more important question: do rabid Falcons fans exist?

I've been a fan since my parents took me to a game when I was five, way back in 1972. And, yes, they have always been my favorite team in any sport. But I've always envied fans of good teams.

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 12:03 pm

Atlanta is interesting for two reasons: double teaming Julio is not enough to take him out of the game as he's too big and too fast; the offense is designed to throw to the open receiver not Jones.

If you commit enough resources to stop Jones, the Falcons are happy to have Sanu, Gabriel, the TEs or the RBs catching the ball.

And they have a very good running game.

That said, if I am forced to choose between BB figuring out how to stop the Atlanta O or the Falcons D stopping Tom Brady, I don't think I'm going to spend much time on that.

Of course I didn't have any faith in Denver against the Pats last year either (or Carolina). So that gives me hope.

morlac · Post by **morlac** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 2:16 pm

Skinypupy wrote:
Jaymann wrote:Did even the most rabid Falcons fan dream of this ass whooping?
The more important question: do rabid Falcons fans exist?

I resemble this remark. Yes, there are plenty.

morlac · Post by **morlac** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 2:22 pm

Trent Steel wrote:
stessier wrote:On the one hand, Brady has never played in a Super Bowl where the final score difference was greater than 4 points. On the other hand, holy cow did Atlanta look good these last 2 games!
Atlanta has certainly looked good, but I think they have capitalized mostly on the other team's mistakes. I think NE pulls this out.

Nonsense. That is exactly what great teams are supposed to do. The force team to play perfect or risk falling behind, you can't give that offense extra possessions. They've been killing it all year against one of the toughest schedules in the NFL.

Jeff V · Post by **Jeff V** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 2:24 pm

Give it up, morlac...Pats fans can never conceive of defeat until they actually lose.

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 2:27 pm

I think the falcons have a good chance, but they will need an early lead. If they fall behind, they'll fall apart. The patriots, not so much.

morlac · Post by **morlac** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 2:32 pm

El Guapo wrote:
gameoverman wrote:I just don't see how the Patriots keep Jones from doing his thing. Going into this game I think the Falcons have 14 points already just from the touchdowns you know he's going to have. So I see Atlanta winning this and Julio Jones being SB MVP.
How good are the Falcons' other receivers? Traditionally the approach would be something like double cover Jones and see if the other receivers can kill you. But I haven't seen Jones play, and people seem to describe him as a superhero, so we'll see I guess.

How good are the Falcons other Receiver's?

Matt Ryan';s stats NOT Throwing to Julio:
290/405 for 3535 yards, 32 TDs, 3 INTs, 121.4 passer rating.

Julio 'only' had 6 TD this year.
Matt Ryan has thrown TD's to 13 different receivers this year
Matt Ryan has thrown at least 2 TDs to 10 different receivers
You probably can't name any of the other receivers
Matt Ryan and the Falcons Don't care

Julio is a beast but he missed a couple games and was a decoy only in another he was so hobbled. Falcons still threw for close to 400 in each game. I'd say the other receivers can get the job done.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 2:34 pm

Jeff V wrote:Give it up, morlac...Pats fans can never conceive of defeat until they actually lose.

What about Stess?

morlac · Post by **morlac** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 2:34 pm

Pyperkub wrote:I think the falcons have a good chance, but they will need an early lead. If they fall behind, they'll fall apart. The patriots, not so much.

One of the best offenses the NFL has ever seen lead by one of the most prolific come from behind QB's of all time is going to fall apart if they fall behind? Please.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 2:35 pm

Jeff V wrote:Give it up, morlac...Pats fans can never conceive of defeat until they actually lose.

Trent Steel as a Pats fan -

morlac · Post by **morlac** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 2:38 pm

Jeff V wrote:Give it up, morlac...Pats fans can never conceive of defeat until they actually lose.

I got no problem with Pat's fans thinking they are going to win. Just don't diss the Falcons if you don't know enough about them.

It should be a great game! I'm betting it will be very physical and lower scoring than expected for 3 qtrs as they try to pound the run and keep each other's offenses off the field. Then lights out in the 4th as both teams score a bunch.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 2:42 pm

morlac wrote:
Jeff V wrote:Give it up, morlac...Pats fans can never conceive of defeat until they actually lose.

I got no problem with Pat's fans thinking they are going to win. Just don't diss the Falcons if you don't know enough about them.

It should be a great game! I'm betting it will be very physical and lower scoring than expected for 3 qtrs as they try to pound the run and keep each other's offenses off the field. Then lights out in the 4th as both teams score a bunch.

I don't think Atlanta will be able to run (NE's run defense if quite good). I think they will give it up quickly and go pass happy. I think they will do fine with this.

I think NE will try to run to keep ATL off the field and shorten the game. If they can, I think NE has a chance. If they can't, it will be a shootout and I don't particularly like our chances.

I see it as a typical Patriots/Colts game circa 2003-2006. It should be entertaining and heart breaking.

morlac · Post by **morlac** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 2:48 pm

stessier wrote:
morlac wrote:
Jeff V wrote:Give it up, morlac...Pats fans can never conceive of defeat until they actually lose.

I got no problem with Pat's fans thinking they are going to win. Just don't diss the Falcons if you don't know enough about them.

It should be a great game! I'm betting it will be very physical and lower scoring than expected for 3 qtrs as they try to pound the run and keep each other's offenses off the field. Then lights out in the 4th as both teams score a bunch.
I don't think Atlanta will be able to run (NE's run defense if quite good). I think they will give it up quickly and go pass happy. I think they will do fine with this.

I think NE will try to run to keep ATL off the field and shorten the game. If they can, I think NE has a chance. If they can't, it will be a shootout and I don't particularly like our chances.

I see it as a typical Patriots/Colts game circa 2003-2006. It should be entertaining and heart breaking.

I can see that. Falcons throw to their RB's alot, especially when running game isn't working. Stopping that might be more important than the stopping the running game. Blount scares me as our interior defense line has been soft most of the year. Falcons have given up some ugly YPR all year. It's gotten a little better lately but is vulnerable. Totally agree that Pats do not want to get into a shootout. Not that they aren't capable it's just not a good recipe for beating the Falcons.

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 2:49 pm

morlac wrote:One of the best offenses the NFL has ever seen lead by one of the most prolific come from behind QB's of all time

Uh, what? Surely this is a joke, right?

morlac · Post by **morlac** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 3:04 pm

RunningMn9 wrote:
morlac wrote:One of the best offenses the NFL has ever seen lead by one of the most prolific come from behind QB's of all time
Uh, what? Surely this is a joke, right?

Me Jest about the Falcons? Certainly not.

The offense this year is one of the top 5 of all time. Tons of record breaking stats to back this up. Absurd to even argue against this.

Matt Ryan:

https://www.ticketcity.com/news-article ... e-nfl.html

"How We Did It
To rank the best 4th-quarter Quarterbacks in the NFL we used an algorithm based on metrics including:

Game-winning drives and touchdown passes
Fourth-quarter comebacks
Touchdown passes thrown per interceptions in the 4th quarter and overtime
All metrics are waited evenly. This study focuses specifically on regular season figures and factors in games played to encapsulate how many times players were able to achieve in the 4th-quarter based on the amount of opportunities had. To gather an appropriate sample size, Quarterbacks included in the ranking must have started at least 32 games."

They put Matty Ice 2nd all time (regular season, I hear ya). Of course they have Romo first...who knew.

Interesting stats from that:

Game-Winning Drives (% of games played)
Matt Ryan 27.7%

So yes, Matt Ryan is historically good at coming from behind to win games. He has earned the nickname Matty Ice. Pretty sure he won't curl up in the fetal position if NE goes up a couple scores.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 4:10 pm

I heard it was the 8th best offense all time, but close enough.

Counterpoint to the rest - you can only be King of Comebacks if you have to comeback.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 4:21 pm

stessier wrote:
Jeff V wrote:Give it up, morlac...Pats fans can never conceive of defeat until they actually lose.
Trent Steel as a Pats fan -

Jeff V's comment is also amusing because of the million ways that you in particular conceive of possible defeats.

rshetts2 · Post by **rshetts2** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 4:24 pm

stessier wrote:I heard it was the 8th best offense all time, but close enough.

Counterpoint to the rest - you can only be King of Comebacks if you have to comeback.

Ah but thats the whole point. They are very capable of a comeback if it is needed, contrary to what was suggested. Certainly you do not believe that they need a comeback to win? That would be the Lions, not the Falcons.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 4:35 pm

Frank Reich laughs at your contention of others as the King of Comebacks.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 4:38 pm

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 4:44 pm

rshetts2 wrote:
stessier wrote:I heard it was the 8th best offense all time, but close enough.

Counterpoint to the rest - you can only be King of Comebacks if you have to comeback.
Ah but thats the whole point. They are very capable of a comeback if it is needed, contrary to what was suggested.

I'm not sure that's what those numbers mean. I think they mean that compared to others, Ryan is the 2nd most successful at coming back which is not the same as being "very capable" of coming back.

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 5:44 pm

stessier wrote:I heard it was the 8th best offense all time, but close enough.

Based on what metric? Yards? Points? I mean, it's a great offense, and I don't see a better offense in the NFL this year, but this isn't one of the best offenses in the history of the NFL, unless you are selectively gaming the criteria in advance to prove that point. Like he did with the comeback nonsense. He's currently ranked 5th in active QBs for fourth-quarter comebacks, and tied for 14th overall. None of these are bad, but the hyperbole of the original claim is comical.

And yes, his nickname is Matty Ice. Which he got in high school. While playing a different sport.

Obviously the best offense in the NFL this year isn't going to automatically crumble if they don't jump out to a huge lead. HOWEVER, I've seen the top scoring offense in the NFL go up against the top scoring defense in the NFL with two weeks of preparation before. I don't remember too many times for that working out in favor of the offense.

The problem with the Patriots is that teams that play them constantly feel like they have to be perfect, and so they press. Which stops them from being perfect. Can the Falcons have enough faith in themselves to play Falcon football and forget that they are playing the New England Patriots?

I sure as fuck hope so.

Xmann · Post by **Xmann** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 6:44 pm

I certainly remember a particularly good Broncos offense just a few years ago that was embarrassed in the SB.

I also remember a particularly good Panthers offense that was pretty much shut down last year as well.

I would gladly take the Falcons offense compared to the product the Broncos produced this year on the field.

But give me a top tier defense any day of the week compared to a high caliber offense.

As much as it pains me and I want the Falcons to win, I'm going with the Patriots. Not a fan of those "greatest offenses of all time", like teams. I learned the hard way a few years ago.

gameoverman · Post by **gameoverman** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 8:14 pm

I think Atlanta's best strategy would be to come out throwing. Make the Patriots stop the pass. Then Atlanta can start running. This will cause the Patriots to adjust, then Atlanta can start throwing again. At any point in this process if the Patriots show themselves unable to stop the pass or run, Atlanta just stays with that.

The Patriots will want to run a lot right off because that's their best chance to control time of possession. They'll want to keep their defense off the field as much as they can so they'll have something left in the tank for the 4th quarter.

morlac · Post by **morlac** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 8:45 pm

RunningMn9 wrote:
stessier wrote:I heard it was the 8th best offense all time, but close enough.
Based on what metric? Yards? Points? I mean, it's a great offense, and I don't see a better offense in the NFL this year, but this isn't one of the best offenses in the history of the NFL, unless you are selectively gaming the criteria in advance to prove that point. Like he did with the comeback nonsense. He's currently ranked 5th in active QBs for fourth-quarter comebacks, and tied for 14th overall. None of these are bad, but the hyperbole of the original claim is comical.

And yes, his nickname is Matty Ice. Which he got in high school. While playing a different sport.

Obviously the best offense in the NFL this year isn't going to automatically crumble if they don't jump out to a huge lead. HOWEVER, I've seen the top scoring offense in the NFL go up against the top scoring defense in the NFL with two weeks of preparation before. I don't remember too many times for that working out in favor of the offense.

The problem with the Patriots is that teams that play them constantly feel like they have to be perfect, and so they press. Which stops them from being perfect. Can the Falcons have enough faith in themselves to play Falcon football and forget that they are playing the New England Patriots?

I sure as fuck hope so.

Opps, Stessier is almost right they have the 7th best scoring offense of all time (total points scored). Best since 2000 Rams. Yes, that is a top 10 offense of ALL TIME. Not sure how you can consider that not one of the best offenses. Not sure how else you can judge an offense? Don't like total points? Too selectively gaming?

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/Ba ... storic-one
"To whit: Kyle Shanahan's offense is currently averaging 10.8 points more than the league average (22.7 points) and 4.4 points more than the second-placed Saints (29.1 points). To put that in context, we can standardize the points per game total and find that the Falcons are 2.6 standard deviations above the mean in terms of points per game, which puts them in the 99th percentile of offenses since the AFL-NFL merger of 1970."
---99th percentile? That's it? Slackers.

This offense is historically good and played against the toughest schedule in the NFL last year. They played 6 top 10 defenses and averaged 30 pts against them. That's absurd.

On comebacks: Statistically speaking, Matt Ryan is one the best at orchestrating 4th qtr comebacks. No Hyperbole and not an outrageous claim. His stats back it up; He had the most through his first 6 years in the NFL of any other QB ever and is still on pace to break Manning's record. You cant compare his total to other active QB's unless you factor for total number of games played. Oddly, which the article I linked to did. It's not just that article. Google Matt Ryan 4th qtr comebacks. It's been written about for years, not that anyone outside ATL noticed.
http://www.atlantafalcons.com/news/arti ... 863d24b7e5
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1487 ... uarterback

So yes, Matt Ryan has shown a penchant for 4th qtr comebacks and is on pace to be one of the best and is currently leading a historically top 10 offense

Say it with me... this offense is freaking Awesome! (ok maybe a little hyperbole but not comical as you are ensuing)

Now, I did not say they would win because you are right. Historically speaking Defenses always win in the Superbowl.

Should be a heeluva game...Rise Up!

rshetts2 · Post by **rshetts2** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 8:54 pm

Xmann wrote: But give me a top tier defense any day of the week compared to a high caliber offense.

As much as it pains me and I want the Falcons to win, I'm going with the Patriots. Not a fan of those "greatest offenses of all time", like teams. I learned the hard way a few years ago.

And this is where my problems with the Falcons lay. On their defense. Ranked #25 in the NFL. They are a team that relies not so much on stopping the other team as they do on their offense racking up points. Teams that rack up points do not seem to fare well against strong defenses in the SB and The Pats are #1 in defensive points per game. As nuch as I would like to see the Falcons win, I wouldn't put money on them.

morlac · Post by **morlac** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 9:02 pm

LALALALALA I can't hear you Xmann. I'm too busy reading this:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... liber-unit

I kid... mostly.

Falcons def. is better overall than advertised in pass defense (teams throw a lot due to being behind) and very good at creating turnovers. They are dreadful in run defense and cant stop TE's. They do love to hit though. Fast and physical just young and mistake prone. Bad combo against Brady and Co.

edit: ok I'm done for now. yes, there are Rabid Falcon fans

Xmann · Post by **Xmann** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 9:53 pm

I'm pulling for the Falcons, I really am.

I've just been burned by my Broncos that I don't trust high powered offenses against top defenses in championship games.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 10:03 pm

I will boldly predict that I don't have any idea who will win. Feels like a coin flip to me.

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 10:46 pm

Context matters. How do you compare an offense in 2017 with the Chargers offense in 1981? It's not simple enough to compare points scored or yards gained.

Your complaint appears to be that no one knows anything about the Falcons, and maybe that's true. I think you might also be suffering a little bit from not knowing much about NFL history at large. To each his own I guess.

Good luck to your team, we're all counting on you.

morlac · Post by **morlac** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 11:28 pm

RunningMn9 wrote:Context matters. How do you compare an offense in 2017 with the Chargers offense in 1981? It's not simple enough to compare points scored or yards gained.

Your complaint appears to be that no one knows anything about the Falcons, and maybe that's true. I think you might also be suffering a little bit from not knowing much about NFL history at large. To each his own I guess.

Good luck to your team, we're all counting on you.

Can't compare points or yardage gained? How else can you judge an offense? By how sexy they looked?

I get what you mean about different eras and that context certainly matters and all but that article I linked to compared what they scored against the league avg scored for that year. It's not perfect but that's a pretty solid indicator this offense is epic, historically speaking. At least since 1970.

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 11:41 pm

The problem is that NFL teams aren't always trying to score points or pile up yards. Some great offenses get a lead and then take the air out of the ball and use the defense to throttle the opponent. Other offenses have to air it out constantly because their defense is atrocious. Context matters. How do you objectively compare them?

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Tue Jan 24, 2017 11:50 pm

morlac wrote:
RunningMn9 wrote:
morlac wrote:One of the best offenses the NFL has ever seen lead by one of the most prolific come from behind QB's of all time
Uh, what? Surely this is a joke, right?

Me Jest about the Falcons? Certainly not.

The offense this year is one of the top 5 of all time. Tons of record breaking stats to back this up. Absurd to even argue against this.

Matt Ryan:

https://www.ticketcity.com/news-article ... e-nfl.html

"How We Did It
To rank the best 4th-quarter Quarterbacks in the NFL we used an algorithm based on metrics including:

Game-winning drives and touchdown passes
Fourth-quarter comebacks
Touchdown passes thrown per interceptions in the 4th quarter and overtime
All metrics are waited evenly. This study focuses specifically on regular season figures and factors in games played to encapsulate how many times players were able to achieve in the 4th-quarter based on the amount of opportunities had. To gather an appropriate sample size, Quarterbacks included in the ranking must have started at least 32 games."

They put Matty Ice 2nd all time (regular season, I hear ya). Of course they have Romo first...who knew.

Interesting stats from that:

Game-Winning Drives (% of games played)
Matt Ryan 27.7%

So yes, Matt Ryan is historically good at coming from behind to win games. He has earned the nickname Matty Ice. Pretty sure he won't curl up in the fetal position if NE goes up a couple scores.

All of those numbers are zero percent in the super bowl, which is why I posted what I did.

I can't remember if he had to come from behind in their divisional win against the Seahawks the last year they made the nfc championship game, but if they didn't, then I think those numbers are also zero percent in the playoffs too.

EvilHomer3k · Post by **EvilHomer3k** » Wed Jan 25, 2017 12:30 am

RunningMn9 wrote:Obviously the best offense in the NFL this year isn't going to automatically crumble if they don't jump out to a huge lead. HOWEVER, I've seen the top scoring offense in the NFL go up against the top scoring defense in the NFL with two weeks of preparation before. I don't remember too many times for that working out in favor of the offense.

I can only assume you mean in points per game (where the Pats were #1). In the end, that's what matters, right. Not letting the other team score points. The Pats played some of the worst scoring teams in the NFL.

Of their 16 games they played a team ranked in the bottom half in offensive scoring 12 times. They had 8 games against teams in the bottom third in points scored. They only played 4 games against a team ranked in the top half in offensive scoring. Two of those were Buffalo who ranks 30th in passing yards.

Spoiler:

What do the the 7 worst passing teams in the NFL have in common? They've all played the Patriots.

Spoiler:

The patriots have faced the 7 worst passing teams in the NFL 10 out of 16 games. They've faced 3 teams with a top 10 passing offense (Arizona, Pittsburgh, and Seattle).

I'm not saying the Falcons are going to win. I'm just saying that Pats #1 ranking in defensive PPG is misleading when you look at the schedule they had.