Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

[Enough]

Also, as long as we're talking anecdotal evidence, the progressive wing / left seems way more behind Biden than they were re: Clinton in 2016. Not that they love Biden by any means, but 95%+ of the progressive kvetching that I've seen online re: Biden has come with a preface of "I'm 100% voting for him in November, BUT [progressive complaint]".

I think a large chunk of those folks would desert Biden in 2024 (depending on the GOP nominee), but seems like they're overwhelming in for 2020.

I'm sure you have seen the reporting today that violence is good for us is one of their primary campaign strategies moving forward. Even if it doesn't work and they win through the other shenanigans it will legitimatize all of the awfulness. Kellyanne came out and confirmed that's the plan going forward, more violence is good as far as they care.

[El Guapo]

Also, as long as we're talking anecdotal evidence, the progressive wing / left seems way more behind Biden than they were re: Clinton in 2016. Not that they love Biden by any means, but 95%+ of the progressive kvetching that I've seen online re: Biden has come with a preface of "I'm 100% voting for him in November, BUT [progressive complaint]".

I think a large chunk of those folks would desert Biden in 2024 (depending on the GOP nominee), but seems like they're overwhelming in for 2020.

I'm sure you have seen the reporting today that violence is good for us is one of their primary campaign strategies moving forward. Even if it doesn't work and they win through the other shenanigans it will legitimatize all of the awfulness. Kellyanne came out and confirmed that's the plan going forward, more violence is good as far as they care.

I get that that's part of their campaign strategy going forward. And it *could* work - it's far from the dumbest idea to come out of Trumpworld - it's just that it hasn't worked to date. Like, people were kvetching about this when the George Floyd protests started around June, and Trump's polling got worse after that. Part of it may be that chaos in general tends to be bad for an incumbent, part of it is that Trump has specifically egged on violence (maybe making it hard to then blame violence on others), part of it may be polling showing that people really don't trust Trump on racial matters, who knows.

Anyway, *maybe* this will turn out better for Trump now? But it seems like a lot of people are just assuming that it will work to Trump's benefit (including Conway), and it's not obvious that it will.

[Enough]

Also, as long as we're talking anecdotal evidence, the progressive wing / left seems way more behind Biden than they were re: Clinton in 2016. Not that they love Biden by any means, but 95%+ of the progressive kvetching that I've seen online re: Biden has come with a preface of "I'm 100% voting for him in November, BUT [progressive complaint]".

I think a large chunk of those folks would desert Biden in 2024 (depending on the GOP nominee), but seems like they're overwhelming in for 2020.

I'm sure you have seen the reporting today that violence is good for us is one of their primary campaign strategies moving forward. Even if it doesn't work and they win through the other shenanigans it will legitimatize all of the awfulness. Kellyanne came out and confirmed that's the plan going forward, more violence is good as far as they care.

I get that that's part of their campaign strategy going forward. And it *could* work - it's far from the dumbest idea to come out of Trumpworld - it's just that it hasn't worked to date. Like, people were kvetching about this when the George Floyd protests started around June, and Trump's polling got worse after that. Part of it may be that chaos in general tends to be bad for an incumbent, part of it is that Trump has specifically egged on violence (maybe making it hard to then blame violence on others), part of it may be polling showing that people really don't trust Trump on racial matters, who knows.

Anyway, *maybe* this will turn out better for Trump now? But it seems like a lot of people are just assuming that it will work to Trump's benefit (including Conway), and it's not obvious that it will.

Just to reiterate one of my main points you didn't respond to, if he wins, it won't matter if this did or did not work. It will make people think fanning violence did work and will normalize this crap. That is a very dangerous outcome in any scenario.

[El Guapo]

Also, as long as we're talking anecdotal evidence, the progressive wing / left seems way more behind Biden than they were re: Clinton in 2016. Not that they love Biden by any means, but 95%+ of the progressive kvetching that I've seen online re: Biden has come with a preface of "I'm 100% voting for him in November, BUT [progressive complaint]".

I think a large chunk of those folks would desert Biden in 2024 (depending on the GOP nominee), but seems like they're overwhelming in for 2020.

I'm sure you have seen the reporting today that violence is good for us is one of their primary campaign strategies moving forward. Even if it doesn't work and they win through the other shenanigans it will legitimatize all of the awfulness. Kellyanne came out and confirmed that's the plan going forward, more violence is good as far as they care.

I get that that's part of their campaign strategy going forward. And it *could* work - it's far from the dumbest idea to come out of Trumpworld - it's just that it hasn't worked to date. Like, people were kvetching about this when the George Floyd protests started around June, and Trump's polling got worse after that. Part of it may be that chaos in general tends to be bad for an incumbent, part of it is that Trump has specifically egged on violence (maybe making it hard to then blame violence on others), part of it may be polling showing that people really don't trust Trump on racial matters, who knows.

Anyway, *maybe* this will turn out better for Trump now? But it seems like a lot of people are just assuming that it will work to Trump's benefit (including Conway), and it's not obvious that it will.

Just to reiterate one of my main points you didn't respond to, if he wins, it won't matter if this did or did not work. It will make people think fanning violence did work and will normalize this crap. That is a very dangerous outcome in any scenario.

Oh yeah, well - I mean, if Trump wins, we're screwed in 10 million different ways.

[Octavious]

I'm pretty sure that if Biden wins he's not going to run for a second term. I hope that's something we need to worry about.

People keep assuming this without any evidence, including lots of people saying that Biden has said that he would only serve one term, when he's very explicitly denied that. If Biden wins in 2020, I think there's a 80%+ chance that he runs for reelection. And the bulk of that 20% is from scenarios where Biden's health sharply declines before 2024.

I'm just basing that I what I think will happen. He will be super duper old and chances are the Republicans will not trot out someone that old. Again this is a problem I want to have.

[Defiant]

A new ABC News-Ipsos poll conducted after the Republican National Convention (RNC) finds that Americans’ views toward the major party nominees remain unchanged from last week, after the Democratic National Convention (DNC). Around half of Americans report watching at least a little of the event – similar to the DNC’s reported viewership. A majority of Americans disapprove of what the Republicans said and did; however, among those that watched a lot or some, most have a positive view of the Republicans’ message.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/ ... ntion-2020

[malchior]

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/stat ... 02823?s=20

Spoiler:

Military Times poll: Joe Biden leads Trump by six points among the troops, 43-37.

In October 2016, Trump led Hillary by 20 points in the same poll.

Trump's favorability among the troops is now at -12, the worst of his presidency.

Going out on a limb, but perhaps allowing bounties on the military makes them not like you very much?

I've seen accounts where service members say that even without the bounties the situation was bad for Trump. They do not like how we abandoned the Kurds and his cozying up to Russia. Service members have first hand seen Russia making dangerous approaches with naval vessels, airplanes, and recently they rammed one of our vehicles in Syria. Without a major comment from the President, SecDef, SecState, anybody really. There CinC doesn't stand up for them and they see it. The bounties probably tipped it hard.

On the other hand

https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status ... 6585842690

[El Guapo]

eh, that *one person* in the service posted something offensive and anti-semitic doesn't really rebut a finding that Trump is unpopular among service members in general.

I know that there are issues with the Military Times as a measure of servicemen opinion in general (though my understanding is that it's the best measure we've got, albeit flawed), though it tends to suggest that Trump's at least not wildly popular among servicemen, and that his popularity has declined.

[Isgrimnur]

No one who has a German name could be an evil man.

[Defiant]

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/stat ... 02823?s=20

Spoiler:

Military Times poll: Joe Biden leads Trump by six points among the troops, 43-37.

In October 2016, Trump led Hillary by 20 points in the same poll.

Trump's favorability among the troops is now at -12, the worst of his presidency.

Going out on a limb, but perhaps allowing bounties on the military makes them not like you very much?

What gets me is that while his favorable numbers have dropped a few points, Trump's unfavorable numbers are exactly the same between now and 2019, which just strikes me as bizarre. I would have thought for sure 2020 would have moved a few of the 8.5% undecideds into being unfavorable of him.

[LawBeefaroni]

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/stat ... 02823?s=20

Spoiler:

Military Times poll: Joe Biden leads Trump by six points among the troops, 43-37.

In October 2016, Trump led Hillary by 20 points in the same poll.

Trump's favorability among the troops is now at -12, the worst of his presidency.

Going out on a limb, but perhaps allowing bounties on the military makes them not like you very much?

And they'll be counting on the USPS. Hmmm...

About three-quarters of the 1.3 million active duty military members are eligible to vote absentee with special protections because they're stationed away from their voting residence.

They're covered by the Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act (UOCAVA) of 1986, which requires states to allow these military members, their eligible family and overseas citizens to vote absentee in federal elections.

Voting is more complicated for military members stationed away than for local voters. They have to update their registration and explicitly request an absentee ballot — potentially every year. They have to follow their state's rules on how election paperwork can be sent and received, which may require technology not readily available or long mailing times. Most need to vote earlier than local voters so that their ballots are received by voting deadlines.

[malchior]

eh, that *one person* in the service posted something offensive and anti-semitic doesn't really rebut a finding that Trump is unpopular among service members in general.

I know that there are issues with the Military Times as a measure of servicemen opinion in general (though my understanding is that it's the best measure we've got, albeit flawed), though it tends to suggest that Trump's at least not wildly popular among servicemen, and that his popularity has declined.

Wasn't meant to rebut it. More of a view into the minority. I'm sure he isn't alone - he had a pretty big audience in and out of the military.

[malchior]

https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/stat ... 8391580673

[Grifman]

On the other hand

https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status ... 6585842690

The good news is that he is now under investigation by the military and most likely will face some sort of discipline.

[Grifman]

I get that that's part of their campaign strategy going forward. And it *could* work - it's far from the dumbest idea to come out of Trumpworld - it's just that it hasn't worked to date. Like, people were kvetching about this when the George Floyd protests started around June, and Trump's polling got worse after that. Part of it may be that chaos in general tends to be bad for an incumbent, part of it is that Trump has specifically egged on violence (maybe making it hard to then blame violence on others), part of it may be polling showing that people really don't trust Trump on racial matters, who knows.

Anyway, *maybe* this will turn out better for Trump now? But it seems like a lot of people are just assuming that it will work to Trump's benefit (including Conway), and it's not obvious that it will.

I think the longer the violence continues the better it is for Trump. Polls are already indicating that most Americans are getting tired of the rioting and violence. Early on they sort of understood even if they didn't approve, now it just keeps going on and on, with little purpose. People, including myself, are just tired of it. Protesting is fine, violence and destruction is not.

[malchior]

I think the longer the violence continues the better it is for Trump. Polls are already indicating that most Americans are getting tired of the rioting and violence. Early on they sort of understood even if they didn't approve, now it just keeps going on and on, with little purpose. People, including myself, are just tired of it. Protesting is fine, violence and destruction is not.

Sure everyone is tired of it. What isn't clear is why the rioting and violence is going to help Trump. Many say it but it has no obvious linkage for or against Trump. That is why you are hearing a lot of Democratic boosters saying - you don't like the violence - guess what...who is in charge? It's Trump. At this point the risk is that the violence isn't so much a electoral advantage as it may turn into a more immediate danger.

[LawBeefaroni]

Sure everyone is tired of it. What isn't clear is why the rioting and violence is going to help Trump. Many say it but it has no obvious linkage for or against Trump. That is why you are hearing a lot of Democratic boosters saying - you don't like the violence - guess what...who is in charge? It's Trump.

He's spinning it as Democrat-run cities spreading crime and anarchy. It's happening on their watch. So for him, more is better.

Nevermind that he's providing most of the fuel for the fire.

[malchior]

This is fun. Scalise got caught manipulating the robotic voice of a disabled person in a conversation with Biden and now the Trump campaign is selectively editing Biden speeches. So now Biden has to worry about making sure that sentence fragments aren't going to sound bad out of context. JFC. This is really going to be the worst election in American history.

https://twitter.com/jribas/status/1300511141781745669

[malchior]

Sure everyone is tired of it. What isn't clear is why the rioting and violence is going to help Trump. Many say it but it has no obvious linkage for or against Trump. That is why you are hearing a lot of Democratic boosters saying - you don't like the violence - guess what...who is in charge? It's Trump.

He's spinning it as Democrat-run cities spreading crime and anarchy. It's happening on their watch. So for him, more is better.

Nevermind that he's providing most of the fuel for the fire.

Right but there isn't much evidence the punch is *landing*. And the Democrats are already trying to turn it against him. We'll see what happens but this is ugly stuff.

[Kraken]

Sure everyone is tired of it. What isn't clear is why the rioting and violence is going to help Trump. Many say it but it has no obvious linkage for or against Trump. That is why you are hearing a lot of Democratic boosters saying - you don't like the violence - guess what...who is in charge? It's Trump.

He's spinning it as Democrat-run cities spreading crime and anarchy. It's happening on their watch. So for him, more is better.

Nevermind that he's providing most of the fuel for the fire.

Right but there isn't much evidence the punch is *landing*. And the Democrats are already trying to turn it against him. We'll see what happens but this is ugly stuff.

trump will double down and redouble on the head-bashing before he will realize that it isn't helping him.

Beau of the Fifth Column says it's right there in the military playbook. If you want protests to turn violent, suppress them. If you want them to spread, lock them down. The harder you turn the screws, the more people you radicalize. This is how NOT to deal with opposition...unless you want insurrection. And when you get it, good luck controlling it.

We haven't gone through that door yet, but we're standing on the threshold with our hand on the knob.

(edit) We all know who Beau is, right?

[Jaymann]

You don't know Beau.

[malchior]

WTF is this shit? A troop of Antifa traipsed through one of the most highly monitored environments in the country? Sounds likely. Edit: Clip two is *MORE BIZARRE* and overlaps the first one at the end. Did he have a stroke?

Choice quote: "I'll tell you sometime."

https://twitter.com/oliverdarcy/status/ ... 7207399424

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1300620978305736704

[Octavious]

Ya we're in some seriously deep shit now. I wonder how many people are going to get killed to get him elected again.

[LordMortis]

I can't talk about it, except for the innuendo that will excite my conspiracy fan supporters.

Just like his taxes. "What can you do?"... And quite unlike is spy satellite photos or secret information of our allies. I'm sure he'll publish the "transcript" when called on it.

[Holman]

Fascinating that he goes from a plane "completely loaded" with Antifa to "seven people." That means that there were probably three activists flying to be part of RNC protests.

It could be sheer fantasy, but it's more likely that we're at the point where the WH is using agencies to do domestic surveillance on prominent activists. Naturally, Trump gives the game away because he can't resist blurting everything out.

[Octavious]

I'm leaning towards he's just winging random crap out. Sadly this works for the idiots on the right.

[LordMortis]

Fascinating that he goes from a plane "completely loaded" with Antifa to "seven people." That means that there were probably three activists flying to be part of RNC protests.

It could be sheer fantasy, but it's more likely that we're at the point where the WH is using agencies to do domestic surveillance on prominent activists. Naturally, Trump gives the game away because he can't resist blurting everything out.

Those were all my thoughts as well. I was picturing an 80 passenger jet limited to a capacity of 7 people due to COVID restrictions.

[Scraper]

I'm leaning towards he's just winging random crap out. Sadly this works for the idiots on the right.

Trumps whole strategy works extremely well with his base because it just confirms their bias and they don't need to look any deeper. However, anyone else who actually looks at the issues and tries to understand them can see right through his BS. I just hope there is enough of those later types on November 3rd.

[LordMortis]

Trumps whole strategy works extremely well with his base because it just confirms their bias and they don't need to look any deeper.

It's not just his base. His "reluctant" support see the sheer of mass of shit he throws at the wall only to focus on corn nuggets that confirm their specific biases and then disregard the rest. (Damn you Simon and Garfunkel, it keeps coming back to that song)

[ImLawBoy]

My God! Biden is being controlled by his girlfriend in Canada!

[Octavious]

I'm leaning towards he's just winging random crap out. Sadly this works for the idiots on the right.

Trumps whole strategy works extremely well with his base because it just confirms their bias and they don't need to look any deeper. However, anyone else who actually looks and the issues and tries to understand them can see right through his BS. I just hope there is enough of those later types on November 3rd.

All I know is that everywhere I look it's mostly Trump supporters. Maybe they are just more vocal, but I have zero faith that this shitstorm will end in November.

[Scraper]

I'm leaning towards he's just winging random crap out. Sadly this works for the idiots on the right.

Trumps whole strategy works extremely well with his base because it just confirms their bias and they don't need to look any deeper. However, anyone else who actually looks and the issues and tries to understand them can see right through his BS. I just hope there is enough of those later types on November 3rd.

All I know is that everywhere I look it's mostly Trump supporters. Maybe they are just more vocal, but I have zero faith that this shitstorm will end in November.

This reminds of a local issue on the ballot in March. The local farmers and other Trumpster type people were extremely vocal about trying to end funding for the county park system. They thought the parks were trampling on their property rights. There were signs up everywhere talking about voting no on Park Funding. These people were LOUD and if you went just based off of signs and letters to the editor the Park Levy would have gone down in flames. However, the park Levy passed by a margin of almost 2-1, the silent majority stepped up for the greater good. Don't look at Trump Flags and Trump signs as any indication of who's winning the race.

(Yeah this is anecdotal, but in this case the anti parks people are also your typical Trumpsters, they are loud and convinced they are right, but most people see through the shit.)

[Octavious]

The poll numbers this week aren't helping my feels either though. Emerson has Biden up by just two points now. I expect his numbers to jump a bit from the convention, but I don't feel super great about the chances right now.

[Unagi]

[Octavious]

I really should just avoid social media.

[Isgrimnur]

I really should just avoid social media.

:checks clock:

Maybe you should go get breakfast.

[Scraper]

I really should just avoid social media.

Yes social media is the worst. I walked away from it about 2 years ago and I don't regret it at all. I can only imagine how horrible people are on Facebook with the current state of affairs in this country.

[LordMortis]

I really should just avoid social media.

OO is now my social media. That's both good and bad. We're pretty insulated here which colors my lens a bit too angry liberal and very few of my fleshy friends are here.

[Smoove_B]

I really should just avoid social media.

I was liked and re-tweeted by half a dozen antivax/MAGAts yesterday and I still feel gross.

[LawBeefaroni]

My longtime fantasy baseball league just had a flame war about this shit. Being a veteran of that kind of thing I just stayed out but what started as an aside about how odd the season was turned into a full on "fuck you!" Trumper vs. anti-Trumper fest visible to the whole league.

Like we always have some pretty serious ribbing and even heated accusations of collusion but this was the worst I've ever seen. And there has never been political chatter. Even after 9/11 (yes, the league goes back that far).