Octopus Overlords

El Guapo wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 11:43 am Also, as long as we're talking anecdotal evidence, the progressive wing / left seems way more behind Biden than they were re: Clinton in 2016. Not that they love Biden by any means, but 95%+ of the progressive kvetching that I've seen online re: Biden has come with a preface of "I'm 100% voting for him in November, BUT [progressive complaint]".

I think a large chunk of those folks would desert Biden in 2024 (depending on the GOP nominee), but seems like they're overwhelming in for 2020.

Enough wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 11:58 am

El Guapo wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 11:43 am Also, as long as we're talking anecdotal evidence, the progressive wing / left seems way more behind Biden than they were re: Clinton in 2016. Not that they love Biden by any means, but 95%+ of the progressive kvetching that I've seen online re: Biden has come with a preface of "I'm 100% voting for him in November, BUT [progressive complaint]".

I think a large chunk of those folks would desert Biden in 2024 (depending on the GOP nominee), but seems like they're overwhelming in for 2020.

I'm sure you have seen the reporting today that violence is good for us is one of their primary campaign strategies moving forward. Even if it doesn't work and they win through the other shenanigans it will legitimatize all of the awfulness. Kellyanne came out and confirmed that's the plan going forward, more violence is good as far as they care.

El Guapo wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 12:12 pm

Enough wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 11:58 am

El Guapo wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 11:43 am Also, as long as we're talking anecdotal evidence, the progressive wing / left seems way more behind Biden than they were re: Clinton in 2016. Not that they love Biden by any means, but 95%+ of the progressive kvetching that I've seen online re: Biden has come with a preface of "I'm 100% voting for him in November, BUT [progressive complaint]".

I think a large chunk of those folks would desert Biden in 2024 (depending on the GOP nominee), but seems like they're overwhelming in for 2020.

I'm sure you have seen the reporting today that violence is good for us is one of their primary campaign strategies moving forward. Even if it doesn't work and they win through the other shenanigans it will legitimatize all of the awfulness. Kellyanne came out and confirmed that's the plan going forward, more violence is good as far as they care.

I get that that's part of their campaign strategy going forward. And it *could* work - it's far from the dumbest idea to come out of Trumpworld - it's just that it hasn't worked to date. Like, people were kvetching about this when the George Floyd protests started around June, and Trump's polling got worse after that. Part of it may be that chaos in general tends to be bad for an incumbent, part of it is that Trump has specifically egged on violence (maybe making it hard to then blame violence on others), part of it may be polling showing that people really don't trust Trump on racial matters, who knows.

Anyway, *maybe* this will turn out better for Trump now? But it seems like a lot of people are just assuming that it will work to Trump's benefit (including Conway), and it's not obvious that it will.

Enough wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 12:19 pm

El Guapo wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 12:12 pm

Enough wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 11:58 am

El Guapo wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 11:43 am Also, as long as we're talking anecdotal evidence, the progressive wing / left seems way more behind Biden than they were re: Clinton in 2016. Not that they love Biden by any means, but 95%+ of the progressive kvetching that I've seen online re: Biden has come with a preface of "I'm 100% voting for him in November, BUT [progressive complaint]".

I think a large chunk of those folks would desert Biden in 2024 (depending on the GOP nominee), but seems like they're overwhelming in for 2020.

I'm sure you have seen the reporting today that violence is good for us is one of their primary campaign strategies moving forward. Even if it doesn't work and they win through the other shenanigans it will legitimatize all of the awfulness. Kellyanne came out and confirmed that's the plan going forward, more violence is good as far as they care.

I get that that's part of their campaign strategy going forward. And it *could* work - it's far from the dumbest idea to come out of Trumpworld - it's just that it hasn't worked to date. Like, people were kvetching about this when the George Floyd protests started around June, and Trump's polling got worse after that. Part of it may be that chaos in general tends to be bad for an incumbent, part of it is that Trump has specifically egged on violence (maybe making it hard to then blame violence on others), part of it may be polling showing that people really don't trust Trump on racial matters, who knows.

Anyway, *maybe* this will turn out better for Trump now? But it seems like a lot of people are just assuming that it will work to Trump's benefit (including Conway), and it's not obvious that it will.

Just to reiterate one of my main points you didn't respond to, if he wins, it won't matter if this did or did not work. It will make people think fanning violence did work and will normalize this crap. That is a very dangerous outcome in any scenario.

El Guapo wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 11:46 am

Octavious wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 11:44 am I'm pretty sure that if Biden wins he's not going to run for a second term. I hope that's something we need to worry about.

People keep assuming this without any evidence, including lots of people saying that Biden has said that he would only serve one term, when he's very explicitly denied that. If Biden wins in 2020, I think there's a 80%+ chance that he runs for reelection. And the bulk of that 20% is from scenarios where Biden's health sharply declines before 2024.

A new ABC News-Ipsos poll conducted after the Republican National Convention (RNC) finds that Americans’ views toward the major party nominees remain unchanged from last week, after the Democratic National Convention (DNC). Around half of Americans report watching at least a little of the event – similar to the DNC’s reported viewership. A majority of Americans disapprove of what the Republicans said and did; however, among those that watched a lot or some, most have a positive view of the Republicans’ message.

malchior wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 11:57 am

Ralph-Wiggum wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 11:53 am https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/stat ... 02823?s=20

Spoiler:

Military Times poll: Joe Biden leads Trump by six points among the troops, 43-37.

In October 2016, Trump led Hillary by 20 points in the same poll.

Trump's favorability among the troops is now at -12, the worst of his presidency.

Going out on a limb, but perhaps allowing bounties on the military makes them not like you very much?

I've seen accounts where service members say that even without the bounties the situation was bad for Trump. They do not like how we abandoned the Kurds and his cozying up to Russia. Service members have first hand seen Russia making dangerous approaches with naval vessels, airplanes, and recently they rammed one of our vehicles in Syria. Without a major comment from the President, SecDef, SecState, anybody really. There CinC doesn't stand up for them and they see it. The bounties probably tipped it hard.

Ralph-Wiggum wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 11:53 am https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/stat ... 02823?s=20

Spoiler:

Military Times poll: Joe Biden leads Trump by six points among the troops, 43-37.

In October 2016, Trump led Hillary by 20 points in the same poll.

Trump's favorability among the troops is now at -12, the worst of his presidency.

Going out on a limb, but perhaps allowing bounties on the military makes them not like you very much?

Ralph-Wiggum wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 11:53 am https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/stat ... 02823?s=20

Spoiler:

Military Times poll: Joe Biden leads Trump by six points among the troops, 43-37.

In October 2016, Trump led Hillary by 20 points in the same poll.

Trump's favorability among the troops is now at -12, the worst of his presidency.

Going out on a limb, but perhaps allowing bounties on the military makes them not like you very much?

About three-quarters of the 1.3 million active duty military members are eligible to vote absentee with special protections because they're stationed away from their voting residence.

They're covered by the Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act (UOCAVA) of 1986, which requires states to allow these military members, their eligible family and overseas citizens to vote absentee in federal elections.

Voting is more complicated for military members stationed away than for local voters. They have to update their registration and explicitly request an absentee ballot — potentially every year. They have to follow their state's rules on how election paperwork can be sent and received, which may require technology not readily available or long mailing times. Most need to vote earlier than local voters so that their ballots are received by voting deadlines.

El Guapo wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 1:47 pm eh, that *one person* in the service posted something offensive and anti-semitic doesn't really rebut a finding that Trump is unpopular among service members in general.

I know that there are issues with the Military Times as a measure of servicemen opinion in general (though my understanding is that it's the best measure we've got, albeit flawed), though it tends to suggest that Trump's at least not wildly popular among servicemen, and that his popularity has declined.

malchior wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 1:44 pm On the other hand

https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status ... 6585842690

El Guapo wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 12:12 pm I get that that's part of their campaign strategy going forward. And it *could* work - it's far from the dumbest idea to come out of Trumpworld - it's just that it hasn't worked to date. Like, people were kvetching about this when the George Floyd protests started around June, and Trump's polling got worse after that. Part of it may be that chaos in general tends to be bad for an incumbent, part of it is that Trump has specifically egged on violence (maybe making it hard to then blame violence on others), part of it may be polling showing that people really don't trust Trump on racial matters, who knows.

Anyway, *maybe* this will turn out better for Trump now? But it seems like a lot of people are just assuming that it will work to Trump's benefit (including Conway), and it's not obvious that it will.

Grifman wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 5:51 pmI think the longer the violence continues the better it is for Trump. Polls are already indicating that most Americans are getting tired of the rioting and violence. Early on they sort of understood even if they didn't approve, now it just keeps going on and on, with little purpose. People, including myself, are just tired of it. Protesting is fine, violence and destruction is not.

malchior wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 5:56 pm Sure everyone is tired of it. What isn't clear is why the rioting and violence is going to help Trump. Many say it but it has no obvious linkage for or against Trump. That is why you are hearing a lot of Democratic boosters saying - you don't like the violence - guess what...who is in charge? It's Trump.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 7:14 pm

malchior wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 5:56 pm Sure everyone is tired of it. What isn't clear is why the rioting and violence is going to help Trump. Many say it but it has no obvious linkage for or against Trump. That is why you are hearing a lot of Democratic boosters saying - you don't like the violence - guess what...who is in charge? It's Trump.

He's spinning it as Democrat-run cities spreading crime and anarchy. It's happening on their watch. So for him, more is better.

Nevermind that he's providing most of the fuel for the fire.

malchior wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 7:16 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 7:14 pm

malchior wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 5:56 pm Sure everyone is tired of it. What isn't clear is why the rioting and violence is going to help Trump. Many say it but it has no obvious linkage for or against Trump. That is why you are hearing a lot of Democratic boosters saying - you don't like the violence - guess what...who is in charge? It's Trump.

He's spinning it as Democrat-run cities spreading crime and anarchy. It's happening on their watch. So for him, more is better.

Nevermind that he's providing most of the fuel for the fire.

Right but there isn't much evidence the punch is *landing*. And the Democrats are already trying to turn it against him. We'll see what happens but this is ugly stuff.

Holman wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 9:12 am Fascinating that he goes from a plane "completely loaded" with Antifa to "seven people." That means that there were probably three activists flying to be part of RNC protests.

It could be sheer fantasy, but it's more likely that we're at the point where the WH is using agencies to do domestic surveillance on prominent activists. Naturally, Trump gives the game away because he can't resist blurting everything out.

Octavious wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 9:20 am I'm leaning towards he's just winging random crap out. Sadly this works for the idiots on the right.

Scraper wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 9:34 am Trumps whole strategy works extremely well with his base because it just confirms their bias and they don't need to look any deeper.

Scraper wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 9:34 am

Octavious wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 9:20 am I'm leaning towards he's just winging random crap out. Sadly this works for the idiots on the right.

Trumps whole strategy works extremely well with his base because it just confirms their bias and they don't need to look any deeper. However, anyone else who actually looks and the issues and tries to understand them can see right through his BS. I just hope there is enough of those later types on November 3rd.

Octavious wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 9:54 am

Scraper wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 9:34 am

Octavious wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 9:20 am I'm leaning towards he's just winging random crap out. Sadly this works for the idiots on the right.

Trumps whole strategy works extremely well with his base because it just confirms their bias and they don't need to look any deeper. However, anyone else who actually looks and the issues and tries to understand them can see right through his BS. I just hope there is enough of those later types on November 3rd.

All I know is that everywhere I look it's mostly Trump supporters. Maybe they are just more vocal, but I have zero faith that this shitstorm will end in November.

Octavious wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 11:38 am I really should just avoid social media.

Octavious wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 11:38 am I really should just avoid social media.

Octavious wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 11:38 am I really should just avoid social media.

Octavious wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 11:38 am I really should just avoid social media.