Octopus Overlords

Unagi wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 2:42 pm They needed to talk about Biden planning for only 1 term from the very beginning (He hinted at that in his bid for presidency) - but they didn't. As soon as they didn't - there was no chance the Democratic party would pivot away from him as the incumbent. So, this is one thing that is squarely on Biden (I assume). It's that he didn't PUSH/INSIST that he was here for one term from the beginning.

I imagine if there was any 'think tank' behind this decision, it was decided it wasn't worth risking the historical power of the incumbency.

IIRC people tended to exaggerate Biden hinting that he would be a one-term president. I think the most he ever said on this is that he would be a "transitional" president, which is fairly vague.

FWIW I agree that if Biden weren't going to run again, he needed to say that fairly early, to avoid the media covering this as Biden leaving essentially in defeat. I also have tended to think that it would be foolish to toss away his incumbency advantage when there wasn't an obvious unifying figure waiting in the wings, risking a potentially brutal Democratic primary that could tear open centrist / left wing divides. That said...I'm not seeing much of an incumbency edge for Biden so...maybe I was wrong about this. Ultimately though I'm fine with Biden, old and all, so I don't find much advantage in guessing what people are going to think in the general election.

Victoria Raverna wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 4:27 am There is no third choice?

Go ahead, throw your vote away!



This is my greatest fear that the Maga folk work out that the way to win is to take over both major parties.

In theory it IS possible for a third party to come in and replace one of the two majors but that last happened in the 19th century. It did happen in France with Macron who was a third party candidate for president so it is possible.

I utterly reject the notion that it’s a Biden age problem. It’s an age problem for both candidates and for Congress where the average age is 60. No wonder GenX is so bitter the boomers won’t let go of power.

As for Biden running again that was like the promise of no nsto expansion. Media talked about it and people had it in their mind Biden had promised it when he didn’t.

This country has always had 30-40% of the population who have issues with presidents who are aren’t white Protestant churchgoing men. JFK changed how Americans went to church with his revolution in science through the space race that led to civil rights, reproductive rights and women’s rights. The far right fundamentalists have been trying to undo that since 1960.

waitingtoconnect wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 4:40 pm I utterly reject the notion that it’s a Biden age problem.

What is the "it" you are referring to?

That his age is a problem? Surely not. There are plenty of polls and data and...hell, just ask the closest person under 30 if they think he's too old!

His age is DEFINITELY a concern amongst the voting population...that is objectively true. Unless you believe everyone is lying which is a possibility.

I expect if Trump wasn’t running, Biden wouldn’t have run. In most normal political outcomes, Trump’s losses should have caused the Republican Party to find new leadership. His ability to convince people of the lie the election was “stolen” created space for Trump to continue as a candidate.

I find it surprising that any sane people think Biden is the best choice against Trump. There is no single Democrat that can win against Trump that they need this old Biden to do it?

Biden's record against Trump is pretty good. Don't you agree?

I can't think of a time where a President faced a challenger from his own party for a second term. The odds are incredibly low that the challenge would be successful given the power of incumbency minus a serious scandal and the challenger would most likely be a pariah in their own party. It's very much on Biden that he decided to run again. I think Joe is a good human being and I'm fine with his decision making, but he is absolutely taking an unneeded risk with his age. I think if there had been someone obviously ready in the wings he probably wouldn't have run again, but here we are.

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 5:12 pm

waitingtoconnect wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 4:40 pm I utterly reject the notion that it’s a Biden age problem.

What is the "it" you are referring to?

That his age is a problem? Surely not. There are plenty of polls and data and...hell, just ask the closest person under 30 if they think he's too old!

His age is DEFINITELY a concern amongst the voting population...that is objectively true. Unless you believe everyone is lying which is a possibility.

Sorry I should have been clearer. I meant to say I reject that IT’S JUST a Biden problem with age.

I utterly reject Biden is the only ones of the two candidates with an age problem. Of course Biden has an age problem but so does Trump (amongst many other things).

I can’t see how even where liberal talk show hosts like Mayer and Stewart bang on about Bidens age for “balance” they don’t go nearly as hard when it comes to Trump. Trump has clearly lost it already and with Biden he looks like my grandfather two years before he passed. I agree with most people Biden shoudlnt run. Neither should be allowed to run. It’s madness.

Like the public in the simpsons episode where both candidates are aliens who will end democracy we refuse to look at third party candidates albeit no one credible has stepped forward.

And it’s not just the presidency. McConnell, Pelosi, the Supreme Court and on and on they seem to cling on until they go out in a box. There needs be fair upper age limits consistent with public expectations.

I think the democrats were grooming Harris to take over but that’s not worked as the right wing media’s relentless attacks on her, her history as a tough on crime prosecutor and her own gaffes have alienated her from both the left and right.

gbasden wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 8:35 pm I can't think of a time where a President faced a challenger from his own party for a second term.

How Ted Kennedy's '80 Challenge To President Carter 'Broke The Democratic Party'

I find it almost comical that Nikki Haley is running an ad that specifically mentions the nightmarish possibility of a Kamala Harris presidency if Biden is elected.

Really?! What has she done that has R voters shaking in their boots? LOL

I feel like most voters would be like ‘who, now?’

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 9:48 pm I find it almost comical that Nikki Haley is running an ad that specifically mentions the nightmarish possibility of a Kamala Harris presidency if Biden is elected.

Really?! What has she done that has R voters shaking in their boots? LOL

I feel like most voters would be like ‘who, now?’

Hmmm, I wonder what it is about Kamala Harris that makes Haley think that Republican voters would be scared of her.

Alefroth wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:59 pm Biden's record against Trump is pretty good. Don't you agree?

No. He won one time and barely.

If it weren’t for all that voter fraud, Trump would’ve won. There was just SO much voter fraud. I can’t prove it, but I know there was just TONS of voter fraud.

I for one wouldn’t be unhappy with a President Kamala Harris to get America used to a woman running things.

It’s no surprise she’s going to drive South Carolina voters to vote against her based on her race. Them good ol Southern boys have to be pushed away from Trump.

Victoria Raverna wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 10:33 pm

Alefroth wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:59 pm Biden's record against Trump is pretty good. Don't you agree?

No. He won one time and barely.

And how many times did he try?

Alefroth wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 11:25 pm

Victoria Raverna wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 10:33 pm

Alefroth wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:59 pm Biden's record against Trump is pretty good. Don't you agree?

No. He won one time and barely.

And how many times did he try?

One time but if you only try once and win, that doesn't mean you're going to win again. Maybe he got beginner's luck.

Kraken wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 9:47 pm

gbasden wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 8:35 pm I can't think of a time where a President faced a challenger from his own party for a second term.

How Ted Kennedy's '80 Challenge To President Carter 'Broke The Democratic Party'

You are correct. I was thinking in my head about a successful challenge, but I didn't actually write that down. But that kind of proves my point - a challenge from the President's own party generally will reduce the chances of that party winning the election. Running against a sitting President is not something to be taken lightly.

Victoria Raverna wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 11:33 pm

Alefroth wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 11:25 pm

Victoria Raverna wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 10:33 pm

Alefroth wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:59 pm Biden's record against Trump is pretty good. Don't you agree?

No. He won one time and barely.

And how many times did he try?

One time but if you only try once and win, that doesn't mean you're going to win again. Maybe he got beginner's luck.

So he's batting 1000. There's no such thing as beginner's luck.

gbasden wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:53 am

Kraken wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 9:47 pm

gbasden wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 8:35 pm I can't think of a time where a President faced a challenger from his own party for a second term.

How Ted Kennedy's '80 Challenge To President Carter 'Broke The Democratic Party'

You are correct. I was thinking in my head about a successful challenge, but I didn't actually write that down. But that kind of proves my point - a challenge from the President's own party generally will reduce the chances of that party winning the election. Running against a sitting President is not something to be taken lightly.

Primaries are relatively modern. And no president has ever lost one although it’s come close and arguably LBJ would not have won in 1968 and after losing the New Hampshire primary in 1952 Truman bailed out.

Four incumbents were denied the nomination in the 19th century by their party — John Tyler, Andrew Johnson and Chester A. Arthur — had been Vice Presidents who rose to the Presidency following the deaths of their predecessors, perhaps suggesting they’d never won their parties’ full support in the first place.

https://time.com/5682760/incumbent-pres ... hallenges/

waitingtoconnect wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 9:11 pm

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 5:12 pm

waitingtoconnect wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 4:40 pm I utterly reject the notion that it’s a Biden age problem.

What is the "it" you are referring to?

That his age is a problem? Surely not. There are plenty of polls and data and...hell, just ask the closest person under 30 if they think he's too old!

His age is DEFINITELY a concern amongst the voting population...that is objectively true. Unless you believe everyone is lying which is a possibility.

Sorry I should have been clearer. I meant to say I reject that IT’S JUST a Biden problem with age.

I utterly reject Biden is the only ones of the two candidates with an age problem. Of course Biden has an age problem but so does Trump (amongst many other things).

I utterly reject your utter rejection that Biden has more of an age problem than Trump!

Trump is 4 years younger than Biden. At that age, 4 years can be more like 14 years in terms of different aging outcomes. And the two present in vastly different ways. Trump is certainly prone to his fair share of verbal gaffes, but even when he screws up, he does it with such bombast that it doesn't come across in the same way that Biden's misstatements and at times incoherence does (and, yes, I know Biden is also challenged with a significant stutter which doesn't help his situation).

I hate Trump. I hate his stupidity. I hate his ignorance. I hate his superficiality. I hate how small and mean and petty he is. I hate how he puts himself before everything else, especially this country. I hate how everything is a zero sum game for him. I hate so, so many things about him.

But all that aside, he projects strength and energy -- even at 77 -- far more than Biden does at 81. And that's one of the reasons I'm so fundamentally concerned about Biden's chances of winning in November.

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 9:48 pm Really?! What has she done that has R voters shaking in their boots? LOL

I've yet to hear anything except I remember some roasting her something not great she said when she visit the border early in Biden's presidency. Aside from that, she's not white and she's a woman. That's enough to make any liberal unfit for any position of power.

Kurth wrote:But all that aside, he projects strength and energy -- even at 77 -- far more than Biden does at 81.

That's probably accurate in terms of perception, but I'm not convinced that's solely because of Biden's age. Trump has always been the loudest mouth in the room, which is obviously going to appear to be more "energetic" than someone who's always been soft-spoken like Biden.

YellowKing wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 8:22 am

Kurth wrote:But all that aside, he projects strength and energy -- even at 77 -- far more than Biden does at 81.

That's probably accurate in terms of perception, but I'm not convinced that's solely because of Biden's age. Trump has always been the loudest mouth in the room, which is obviously going to appear to be more "energetic" than someone who's always been soft-spoken like Biden.

Also Trump has always been prone to crazy old man rambling, which makes it hard to differentiate between his "normal" crazy and any signs of senility.

Kurth wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 2:25 am I utterly reject your utter rejection that Biden has more of an age problem than Trump!

Trump is 4 years younger than Biden. At that age, 4 years can be more like 14 years in terms of different aging outcomes. And the two present in vastly different ways. Trump is certainly prone to his fair share of verbal gaffes, but even when he screws up, he does it with such bombast that it doesn't come across in the same way that Biden's misstatements and at times incoherence does (and, yes, I know Biden is also challenged with a significant stutter which doesn't help his situation).

I hate Trump. I hate his stupidity. I hate his ignorance. I hate his superficiality. I hate how small and mean and petty he is. I hate how he puts himself before everything else, especially this country. I hate how everything is a zero sum game for him. I hate so, so many things about him.

But all that aside, he projects strength and energy -- even at 77 -- far more than Biden does at 81. And that's one of the reasons I'm so fundamentally concerned about Biden's chances of winning in November.

Yes, all that. Gaffes, stutter, mixing up names (for both) aside...Biden is 4 years older than Trump, and PRESENTS as 10-15 years older.

If you are still arguing "both sides!" I suggest you watch recent video of both men speaking in public.

Manchin is out:

“I will not be seeking a third-party run. I will not be involved in a presidential run,” the retiring Democratic senator said in a speech at West Virginia University in Morgantown.

He probably ran the numbers and realized he has a better chance of disappearing as a multi-millionaire if he just retires.

Anyone got anymore of those French limpet mines?

Exodor wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:31 pm

Yeah but that Yoda guy he talks funny; I bet he wasn't born in this galaxy. And we all know the Force is fake news and the Jedi are corrupt and should be defunded because their investigation of the Emperor was politically motivated.

Democrats can't find anyone other than Biden that can win against the worst president ever?

Nate Silver has given Biden the kiss of death.

https://www.msn.com/en-ae/news/other/bi ... r-BB1ixhx1

Right now I’d have to say he is right. Biden is clearly past it - the more I hear other Democrat leaders speak the more I realise I Biden isn’t up to the job anymore. He has to go. 86% think the same way and the only reason he’s got a chance is because of Donald trump. Any votes he gets from people like me he is getting to stop trump. Not for him.

If the democrats won’t then all of us are going to be enjoy reeducation next year. And a third party run would just peel off the young and minority votes Biden needs to win. A Macron style third party run is unlikely here.

waitingtoconnect wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 1:37 am Nate Silver has given Biden the kiss of death.

I'm more interested in his virology analysis. That shit was banging.

Victoria Raverna wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 12:55 amDemocrats can't find anyone other than Biden that can win against the worst president ever?

You don't need to run faster than the bear, you just need to run faster than the guy next to you.

Nate Silver is a hack. If he thinks the polls favor Trump then it only reinforces Biden's status as frontrunner.

Focusing on whether the Ds can find someone better to run against Trump than Biden is missing the point. They aren't going to find someone better because they're not looking. Further, they're not going to look. Barring death or debilitating stroke or something along those lines, the die is cast. Biden is the nominee, full stop. No third party will come to the rescue. No darkhorse D candidate. It's Biden vs. Trump. That's simply reality.

Continuing to focus on his age or whether the Ds can find someone else isn't helpful or productive to getting him reelected.

Indeed. We can all focus on how there's no viable (D) candidate for the 2028 Presidential election soon enough.

I think a critical issue is whether he sticks with Kamala Harris as his running mate (most likely he will). This could be extremely relevant if he keels over or becomes incapacitated.

Oh no a strong woman of colour with a diverse background who dares to proudly use her own name who might not have been born here. However will our country survive? I can already hear the good Pastor Paymemore warning me that this is the will of Satan. /sarcarm

Jaymann wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 3:54 pm I think a critical issue is whether he sticks with Kamala Harris as his running mate (most likely he will). This could be extremely relevant if he keels over or becomes incapacitated.

He 100% will stick with Harris. Aside from the lack of indication that he is unhappy with her, dumping her would be a sign of weakness.