Octopus Overlords

Another article on the new supercharger network that will allow travel from LA to NY.

stessier wrote:NC is leading the country once again.

NC attempts to pass law making it illegal to sell a car without going through a dealership.

A legislative proposal, backed by the N.C. Automobile Dealers Association, would make it illegal for Tesla, or any other car maker, to bypass dealerships and sell directly in the state. The proposal cuts at the heart of Tesla’s business model: selling luxury cars over the phone or Internet and then delivering them to the front door of high-net-worth customers.

This is also the case in Texas, though they are fighting it by not having a "dealership." It is sort of like the old sales tax laws. If you don't have a presence it doesn't apply.

I can almost see the states argument for two reasons, though I still disagree on the whole.
1) If there was no retail dealership level, competition could be hurt. It would be the 7 majors (or less) and in reality, you're typically only left with a choice between two cars. At least now, the dealerships have to compete with each other, and they have some volume leverage with the manufacturers.

2) Auto manufacturing isn't exactly a stable industry. Even lately you've had lots of mergers and bankruptcies. Historically this has been worse. Forcing a dealer to have some responsibility in the sale adds a layer of protection for the consumer.

stessier wrote:Another article on the new supercharger network that will allow travel from LA to NY.

Details on the expansion plans were just added to the Supercharger page at Tesla's site. Looks like late this year they plan to have I-80 coast-to-coast, and next year I-70 c2c and some other regional cross-country spokes. 2015 is nuts if they achieve that goal.

And the sister part of this announcement that I haven't seen a lot of coverage for yet is the step change in power at the supercharger stations--from 90 kW to 120 kW. The net result is that you can get 200 miles of charge in 30 min (up from 150 in ideal circumstances and 100-125 more typically). I don't think stopping for 30 min every 200 miles is problematic for most people, assuming the superchargers are in 'useful' locations where there are restrooms and food. I think dropping the charge time is just as important as expanding coverage.

Battery swap coming to a location near you!

Watching a Model S drive over an opening in the stage where a robot replaced the old battery pack with a new one was not terribly visual.

That wasn't the point of the demonstration.

The purpose was to show how quickly a battery swap will take place. Was it faster than filling up?

In this case, it took 91 seconds.
To drive home the speed, Musk simultaneously showed a standard internal combustion engine Audi A8 Sedan filling up its tank with gas at a local gas station. Filling up that car took about 4 minutes.

As the Model S drove off stage following a battery swap while the Audi was still filling up, the crowd in the Tesla design studio cheered.

There was an Israeli company that was planning to do something similar according to a Business Week article I read many moons ago (2006 or '07?). I think it will be huge if this works.

I like the concept, but I'm not convinced that this is a good move for Tesla at this time (assuming they actually move forward to implement this in more than a token couple of locations). As a demo, it's great--shows that changing the battery should that be needed is not a big deal. But in reality, drive up and leave 90 seconds later with a full battery doesn't give the full story.

There's a $$ charge involved. You have to return the battery eventually or be billed for the difference in age/capacity compared to the one you dropped off. If you do return the battery and want your own back, surely that's gonna take longer as the system finds and queues up your battery. There's additional infrastructure required compared to SuperChargers (storing all these batteries, maintaining and charging them, the mechanical infrastructure, a plan to assist if the system breaks down in the middle of a swap, etc), and the benefit applies to an incredibly small percentage of Tesla customers (those currently traveling a distance > than their pack can take them and who are willing to pay the cost-equivalent of a tank of gas in order to 'refill' in 2 minutes rather than do so for free in 30-40. Also possibly city-dwellers who don't have a charging option at home--street-parkers and the like--although that wasn't specifically mentioned.)

I'm hoping this was an 'oohs and aahs' demo to kick out another peg from the 'EVs are toys' crowd, and not a 'OMG let's roll out SuperChargers AND SuperSwappers!! Because we can!!111!!' thing.

I'm seeing Model S's all over now. Also saw an orange convertible roadster this morning.

That's ok. I'll keep on charging my LEAF for free while at work.

naednek wrote:That's ok. I'll keep on charging my LEAF for free while at work.

Definitely the way to go if that option is available to you.

naednek wrote:That's ok. I'll keep on charging my LEAF for free while at work.

Not exactly the need the article was trying to address, but glad you like it.

In other news, the dealer associations have finally gone off their rocker. Limiting direct sales as they've tried to do in other states (NC, TX) is one thing (still a cruddy thing, but they're targeting Tesla). Preventing citizens from registering vehicles unless they're purchased through a dealer? Trouble.

Or it should be, if New Yorkers have any self-respect.

Zaxxon wrote:In other news, the dealer associations have finally gone off their rocker. Limiting direct sales as they've tried to do in other states (NC, TX) is one thing (still a cruddy thing, but they're targeting Tesla). Preventing citizens from registering vehicles unless they're purchased through a dealer? Trouble.

Or it should be, if New Yorkers have any self-respect.

I assume they mean NEW vehicles only. The by-owner used market is pretty big and it would be dangerous for them to go after that.

LawBeefaroni wrote:I assume they mean NEW vehicles only. The by-owner used market is pretty big and it would be dangerous for them to go after that.

I haven't read the bill, but I'm sure it is new only. Still, the way it's crafted seems to pretty tightly target Tesla specifically. Not sure how the dealers can keep a straight face when explaining the reasoning in a way other than 'we'd like to protect our turf, consumer's desires be damned'.

"You want a new car and none of your local dealers carry it? Sorry--you can't have it, period."

Zaxxon wrote:

LawBeefaroni wrote:I assume they mean NEW vehicles only. The by-owner used market is pretty big and it would be dangerous for them to go after that.

I haven't read the bill, but I'm sure it is new only. Still, the way it's crafted seems to pretty tightly target Tesla specifically. Not sure how the dealers can keep a straight face when explaining the reasoning in a way other than 'we'd like to protect our turf, consumer's desires be damned'.

"You want a new car and none of your local dealers carry it? Sorry--you can't have it, period."

If it passes, I wonder what the qualfications of a "dealer" are and if Tesla couldn't just set up a "franchisee" with a token office or lot to qualify.

I'm not sure. I know there has been concern about a slippery slope if Tesla grants a franchise license, as at that point various laws in other states that impact manufacturers who have franchisees take effect. Everything I've read on the subject indicates that it's a big old minefield.

LawBeefaroni wrote:

Zaxxon wrote:

LawBeefaroni wrote:I assume they mean NEW vehicles only. The by-owner used market is pretty big and it would be dangerous for them to go after that.

I haven't read the bill, but I'm sure it is new only. Still, the way it's crafted seems to pretty tightly target Tesla specifically. Not sure how the dealers can keep a straight face when explaining the reasoning in a way other than 'we'd like to protect our turf, consumer's desires be damned'.

"You want a new car and none of your local dealers carry it? Sorry--you can't have it, period."

If it passes, I wonder what the qualfications of a "dealer" are and if Tesla couldn't just set up a "franchisee" with a token office or lot to qualify.

The article said "independent 3rd party", not dealer, so that would make it tricky.

They claim they are the last bastion standing between the consumer and the big car companies taking horrible advantage of us. They're doing it for our own protection!

Yes, those horrible dealers that, when faced with a downturn in business, forced Troy Aikman out of business. Surely those dealers will be able to stand up for consumer rights!

Isgrimnur wrote:Yes, those horrible dealers that, when faced with a downturn in business, forced Troy Aikman out of business. Surely those dealers will be able to stand up for consumer rights!

How did the dealers force him out of business? Or Ford for that matter? The article said is was a bad location and run down building that did him in.

I must have missed something in my economic class when they talked about capitalism.

Vorret wrote:I must have missed something in my economic class when they talked about capitalism.

Yeah it should have noted that auto dealers are much like the mafia.

Transcription of Musk's Q&A from last night for anyone curious for further details on the pack swap plan.

stessier wrote:

Isgrimnur wrote:Yes, those horrible dealers that, when faced with a downturn in business, forced Troy Aikman out of business. Surely those dealers will be able to stand up for consumer rights!

How did the dealers force him out of business? Or Ford for that matter? The article said is was a bad location and run down building that did him in.

I made an error. Ford shut him down, along with manufacturers shutting down a lot of other dealers during the height of their sky-actually-falling days.

And if it were other factors of Aikman failing, why did Ford buy his property from him?

stessier wrote:There was an Israeli company that was planning to do something similar according to a Business Week article I read many moons ago (2006 or '07?). I think it will be huge if this works.

Well drat - looks like they just started liquidation. It was called Project Better Place.

A couple of minor Tesla news bits today:

CBL Malls is partnering with Tesla to install SuperChargers, starting with 5 of them in FL, NC, IL and CA. 5 isn't a huge deal, but I think this is the sort of thing that would really spark the network's expansion if it goes well. A few partnerships with the right companies and suddenly the nation's covered. It would seem to have some benefits for the mall, with a little green cred and a pretty wealthy demographic being lured to spend some time at your shopping center.

There's also a petition at Whitehouse.gov in favor of allowing Tesla direct sales in all 50 states. I can't see this one going anywhere, but thought I'd mention it.

For any Wired magazine subscribers, does anyone remember reading an article from a few years back about the guy trying to singlehandedly build an electric infrastructure in the US? I remember thinking at the time that I had no doubt the guy could pull it off, but I am very lacking in remembering any kind of details right now. Would be interesting to know how if any way, he or his company fits into things as they are today.

Carpet_pissr wrote:For any Wired magazine subscribers, does anyone remember reading an article from a few years back about the guy trying to singlehandedly build an electric infrastructure in the US? I remember thinking at the time that I had no doubt the guy could pull it off, but I am very lacking in remembering any kind of details right now. Would be interesting to know how if any way, he or his company fits into things as they are today.

Edison is doing just fine!

There's a White House petition to get a response to Telsa being blocked from selling directly to consumers:

https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petiti ... s/bFN7NHQR" target="_blank

I'm not sure that will accomplish much, but I would like to see the White House response.

In other Tesla news, the Bloomington, IL Supercharger came online last week. That's the first non-coastal SC. Rumor has a few others going live this week.

Tesla just replaced Oracle on the NASDAQ (specifically, the 100 top NASDAQ companies that make up the ETF), FWIW.

Now the question is, is TSLA overvalued here or not, if one has say a 5-10 year outlook? It's stock has TRIPLED in three months.

Hmmmm....

Carpet_pissr wrote:Tesla just replaced Oracle on the NASDAQ (specifically, the 100 top NASDAQ companies that make up the ETF), FWIW.

Now the question is, is TSLA overvalued here or not, if one has say a 5-10 year outlook? It's stock has TRIPLED in three months.

Hmmmm....

When it has positive earnings, then I'll give it a look.

I love the company now but I'm not touching that stock.


ORCL options doubled for me in the past week. I sold FDO options way too early but they tripled yesterday. I got smoked with YUM today but bailed before I lost 30%. If I want high-risk, high-reward I'm sticking with highly liquid options in established highly liquid companies. Not 5-10 years on a stock with zero earnings. If I want somewhere to stick my money for 5-10 years, I'm going blue chip. And I'm still checking it every month.



Sooo, will TSLA be $400 (or the equivalent split adjusted price) or more in 5 years? Sure it's possible. But it's one I'm willing to let pass me by. It has a $14B market cap and it lost $400K last year. It has a 24% short interest. For that kind of risk I'd rather know by the 3rd Friday of the month if I'm broke or not.

LawBeefaroni wrote:If I want somewhere to stick my money for 5-10 years, I'm going blue chip.

I'm not sure blue chips even exist any more, post-crash, do they?

And yeah, I did some more checking on Tesla, and noted the short interest as well. That's not always a bad thing if you're long, and the stock explodes (in a good way)...and can often work in your favor when the shorts realize (or think) they've made a huge mistake and do a mass exodus.

Happens a lot more with biotechs I guess, but it can be interesting to watch.

Carpet_pissr wrote:

LawBeefaroni wrote:If I want somewhere to stick my money for 5-10 years, I'm going blue chip.

I'm not sure blue chips even exist any more, post-crash, do they?

And yeah, I did some more checking on Tesla, and noted the short interest as well. That's not always a bad thing if you're long, and the stock explodes (in a good way)...and can often work in your favor when the shorts realize (or think) they've made a huge mistake and do a mass exodus.

Happens a lot more with biotechs I guess, but it can be interesting to watch.

I will never buy a stock on the strength of a short squeeze. FWIW, it's around 2 days to cover with TSLA's volume. So it's not even that much of a strength.


Blue chips do exist. Buy and hold is dead though.

LawBeefaroni wrote:Buy and hold is dead though.

Agree with you there...I think. I am about 85% convinced of that tenet.

Carpet_pissr wrote:Tesla just replaced Oracle on the NASDAQ (specifically, the 100 top NASDAQ companies that make up the ETF), FWIW.

Now the question is, is TSLA overvalued here or not, if one has say a 5-10 year outlook? It's stock has TRIPLED in three months.

Hmmmm....

Interesting that a 14b$ company is replacing a 147b$ one.

Vorret wrote:
Interesting that a 14b$ company is replacing a 147b$ one.

Oracle made the decision to move its listing from the NASDAQ to the NYSE so it's no longer eligible for the NASDAQ 100. Why they picked TSLA for the 100 index I'm not sure. Sexiness I assume.

This article contains a map of Supercharger stations that should be completed by 2015. More extensive than I was expecting.

You can see that same map in an interactive form with intermediate date estimations here.

Got a ride in my buddy's new Tesla Model S. I'm not a car guy, but I have to say, I was not prepared for how incredibly cool that car is. By far, the most high-tech automobile I've ever been in. And damn fast, too.

Since it is quite possibly the most high tech automobile in existence, that's good to hear.

I'm still waiting for someone to give me one.

I'm glad you guys are excited about this too. One of the biggest barriers has been the lack of quick charging stations and it looks like Tesla Motors is figuring it out. I want them to succeed really badly. Their charging network alone will help encourage this kind of business. 20 minute charging is still a longer time but is a lot more viable than what we had before. Add that to the vehicles ability to switch out batteries in 90 seconds and we could have a very interesting future of electric cars.

I wonder if the free charging will apply to the standard $30k cars they want to put out too. That's getting really close to being financially viable as something that wipes out the incredible gas prices. Elon's word is that it is and always will be free so I guess that's pretty nice.

http://www.teslamotors.com/batteryswap" target="_blank

But surely the repair costs will be epic in both time and cash, right? Maybe Musk could ally himself with a car company that isn't succeeding in the energy efficient department to get dealership presence and a repair shop presence.