Too Late to Start Thinking About 2015? (Canadian Election)

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 6:35 pm

Rumpy wrote:
Max Peck wrote: I also feel kind of bad for the Marijuana Party -- strictly speaking, the Liberals have pretty much co-opted their entire raison d'être.

You could also consider that to be near total victory for the Marijuana Party.

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 7:14 pm

El Guapo wrote:
Rumpy wrote:
Max Peck wrote: I also feel kind of bad for the Marijuana Party -- strictly speaking, the Liberals have pretty much co-opted their entire raison d'être.

You could also consider that to be near total victory for the Marijuana Party.

I hadn't looked at it that way, but you have a point.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 7:50 pm

Going really well for the liberals in the Maritimes right now.

up 42% from last election

hitbyambulance · Post by **hitbyambulance** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 8:30 pm

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 8:32 pm

I will confess that I'm generally ignorant of Canadian domestic politics, but I've learned a little this time. It looks like it has been quite a ride, all compressed into just a few weeks.

As I understand it, this election will mean the end of Conservative Party (conservative, in American terms) rule and the return of the Liberals (center-left), who might be able to form a government on their own but will probably need to go into coalition with the NDP (leftier).

Have they promised to build a wall?

tjg_marantz · Post by **tjg_marantz** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 8:36 pm

Jesus the Liberals are really clearing out the Maritimes. Still hopeful they will need the NDP to form the gvt.

Had a tought while making supper tonight. Imagine if Jack Layton was alive. Easy majority for the NDP if he was there.

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 9:11 pm

Yup, the Liberals may actually sweep the Maritimes. At the moment, they've won in 29 ridings and lead in the remaining 4. They were projected to do well, but they are exceeding expections in some ridings by a huge amount. For example, threehundredeight.com projected a 90% chance that Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook would go NDP with 48.5% of the vote to the Liberals 24.4%. The actual result is a Liberal win with 49.4% to the NDP's 33.2% with 142/198 polls reporting.

Of course, the Maritimes as a whole were expected to go mostly Liberal anyway. The real story will unfold as ridings in Ontario and Quebec report in.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 9:18 pm

Insane... so far anyways. Wonder if Quebec went red as well, I expect a return of the Bloc BUT who knows, so many people wanted Harper out and saw the Liberals as their best chance, maybe we'll have a Liberal majority once the night end.

All speculation, of course.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 9:19 pm

tjg_marantz wrote:Jesus the Liberals are really clearing out the Maritimes. Still hopeful they will need the NDP to form the gvt.

Had a tought while making supper tonight. Imagine if Jack Layton was alive. Easy majority for the NDP if he was there.

RIP.

I'm so sad we never had a chance to see him be our PM, I'm sure he would have done one fine job.

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 9:38 pm

While I was worried the Canadian people wouldn't kick out the conservatives, now I'm worried that Liberals will get a majority and think it's a mandate to do all sorts of stupid things.

I'll take a Liberal majority over a Conservative minority, but only because the Conservatives have done a lot of harm during their tenure.

And I haven't forgotten that the Liberals were behind Bill C-51 as well. Fuckers.

Moat_Man · Post by **Moat_Man** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 9:47 pm

Justin Trudeau... seriously?

But... but... he's not ready!

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 9:49 pm

Moat_Man wrote:Justin Trudeau... seriously?

But... but... he's not ready!

But he does have nicer hair, in spite of the fact that Harper is the one who brings a stylist along on the campaign trail.

tjg_marantz · Post by **tjg_marantz** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 10:08 pm

GreenGoo wrote:While I was worried the Canadian people wouldn't kick out the conservatives, now I'm worried that Liberals will get a majority and think it's a mandate to do all sorts of stupid things.

I'll take a Liberal majority over a Conservative minority, but only because the Conservatives have done a lot of harm during their tenure.

And I haven't forgotten that the Liberals were behind Bill C-51 as well. Fuckers.

Mirroring our household exactly. I voted NDP and I'm hoping they are needed at least. Mulcair might be PM material but he's a fine politician.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 10:10 pm

Liberal for sure... sure heading toward a majority. I would have peferred a liberal minority BUT it's not Harper so, yay

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 10:14 pm

Then again, it'll be a test for Trudeau, if he's terrible he'll be out in 4 years. Could have been worse.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 10:38 pm

cbc jut called liberal majority.

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 10:43 pm

The CBC is now projecting a Liberal majority.

I will not be entirely displeased if this comes to pass. I have nothing against the NDP, but I tend to prefer the political stability given with a majority. Either way, the Liberals are going to have a job lot of work dropping on their laps.

My local riding may be a microcosm of the collapse in support for the NDP. Catherine Mckenna is currently leading with about 42% of the popular vote. Until the poll results started coming in, I'd have bet good money that it would be impossible for her to unseat Paul Dewar.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 10:48 pm

Congratulations, Canada!

Someday you'll have to tell us how you manage to do democracy without all the Trump, Palin, and Huckabee.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 11:10 pm

Facebook is.... interesting.

I have to somehow admit the niqab thing rubbed me the wrong way at first then I just went, who the fuck cares, apprently, alot of people think that we're somehow going to have a bunch of islamic people come in and spread their bad bad religion across Canada.

Oh well.

In any case, I'm happy with the result!

tjg_marantz · Post by **tjg_marantz** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 11:17 pm

My riding is killing me.

Regina-Lewvan
PC candidate has been hovering at 35-36%
NDP at 34-35%
Liberal at 27%

65% of the people don't want the PC candidate, we're heading towards a PC candidate!

Damnit, why did we have to be a riding that split the vote? Sonofa!

Hoping I'm wrong.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 11:19 pm

tjg_marantz wrote:My riding is killing me.

Regina-Lewvan
PC candidate has been hovering at 35-36%
NDP at 34-35%
Liberal at 27%

65% of the people don't want the PC candidate, we're heading towards a PC candidate! Damnit, why did we have to be a riding that split the vote? Sonofa!

Hoping I'm wrong.

mine is tight right now.

30% NPD
27% Liberal
23% Bloc
17% cons

67% reported.

Moat_Man · Post by **Moat_Man** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 11:32 pm

Yes the Liberals won, and fairly convincingly, but the real news is that the NDP got THUMPED. Wow, I didn't see that coming. I thought there would be a significant NDP presence but I was wrong. We are essentially back to our traditional Liberal-Conservative duopoly.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 11:39 pm

Wow... I rarely stay up for the speeches but Mulcair speech was amazing.

tjg_marantz · Post by **tjg_marantz** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 11:39 pm

We are. At least my riding now has the NDP guy ahead.
Erin Weir
New Democratic Party of Canada
35%
13,795

Trent Fraser
Conservative Party of Canada
35%
13,660

Louis Browne
Liberal Party of Canada
27%
10,684

silverjon · Post by **silverjon** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 11:41 pm

tjg_marantz wrote:My riding is killing me.

Regina-Lewvan
PC candidate has been hovering at 35-36%
NDP at 34-35%
Liberal at 27%

65% of the people don't want the PC candidate, we're heading towards a PC candidate! Damnit, why did we have to be a riding that split the vote? Sonofa!

Hoping I'm wrong.

That is how the prairies go. My NDP candidate was polling at 92% approval last month, but tonight we're getting saddled with this asshole because of a split left vote.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 11:44 pm

Gotta love how Quebec fucked shit up again lol

-51 seats for NDP and +39 for Liberals

tjg_marantz · Post by **tjg_marantz** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 11:46 pm

Condolences.

Aaaand the PC guy is back in the lead by 100 votes with 89% reporting. Goddamnit.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 11:49 pm

tjg_marantz wrote:Condolences.

Aaaand the PC guy is back in the lead by 100 votes with 89% reporting. Goddamnit.

Hang in there it's not over!

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 11:55 pm

Man.... I sure won't miss that haircut

tjg_marantz · Post by **tjg_marantz** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 11:56 pm

Stepping down, good riddance fuck face.

tjg_marantz · Post by **tjg_marantz** » Tue Oct 20, 2015 12:04 am

Or maybe not. CTV said the party informed them that he was stepping down. So he probably is but wasn't man enough to do it on stage and project anything other than smugness. Fuck you, go play a lute somewhere.

tjg_marantz · Post by **tjg_marantz** » Tue Oct 20, 2015 12:07 am

92% reporting, PC ahead by 92 votes, rawr! Come on!

tjg_marantz · Post by **tjg_marantz** » Tue Oct 20, 2015 12:11 am

93%, PC ahead by 12 votes. I've never been in a riding that was anywhere this close. Jeez.

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Tue Oct 20, 2015 12:26 am

tjg_marantz wrote:My riding is killing me.

Regina-Lewvan
PC candidate has been hovering at 35-36%
NDP at 34-35%
Liberal at 27%

65% of the people don't want the PC candidate, we're heading towards a PC candidate! Damnit, why did we have to be a riding that split the vote? Sonofa!

Hoping I'm wrong.

My riding has been conservative for a long time, and this election the NDP dropped out of the race (not literally, but polling-wise) and polls were showing liberal/conservative neck and neck. If I wanted conservatives gone I had little choice.

I haven't checked the results of my own riding yet (assuming they are available) but I would love to see all those blue sign owning people crying in their coffees tomorrow morning. I was actually happy when we kicked the liberals to the curb when the conservatives came in, if only to give them a time out and some time to think about what they'd done, but in retrospect I think I'd prefer corruption over a few of the things the conservative government put in place.

Wah, wah. Hear me cry.

edit: My riding turned red for the first time in more than a decade. I'm happy enough.

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Tue Oct 20, 2015 12:27 am

The CBC reported that the Conservative party released a short statement to the effect that Harper has asked them to appoint an interim leader and start the process to select a new leader.

It looks like my riding (Ottawa-Centre) has gone from being the safest NDP riding in the country to having a Liberal MP. The current results for the top 5 candidates are (with 175/263 polls reporting):

Catherine McKenna (Liberal) - 42.6% (Elected)
Paul Dewar (NDP) - 38.5% (Defeated Incumbent)
Damian Konstantinakos (Conservative) - 14.5% (Really? Damian? Couldn't find a candidate with a more evil-sounding name?)
Tom Milroy (Green) - 3.0% (Apparently a big fan of Catherine McKenna's campaign. With good reason.)
Dean Hariris (Libertarian) - 0.8% (We have a Libertarian Party? Who knew?)
Conrad Lukawski (Rhinoceros) - 0.2% (Keeping the dream alive!)
John Andrew Omowole Akpata (Radical Marijuana) - 0.2% (Give it a rest, man...)
Stuart Ryan (Communist) - 0.2% (Dude, haven't you heard? Being a Canadian Commie is redundant.)

Edit: Updated to show final results. For Posterity!

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Tue Oct 20, 2015 12:41 am

Pierre Poilievre (PC) almost lost his more rural riding when he left my riding to his former aide, Andy Wang. Man, that would have been a sight. I'll give Andy Wang credit though, he ran a strong door to door campaign, spending a ton of time shaking hands and going face to face.

I think a lot of strong candidates suffered for being saddled with Harper's party. Like I said, my riding has been conservative for a long time and this election wasn't even close (despite polling and my fears to the contrary). Chandra Arya received around 50% more votes than Wang (:D). Good.

Again, I'm not all that excited about a Liberal majority, but I'm extremely glad to not continue down the path Harper has been taking us, both personally and nationally.

tjg_marantz · Post by **tjg_marantz** » Tue Oct 20, 2015 1:34 am

NDP candidate won by 143 votes. Oh thank god.

hitbyambulance · Post by **hitbyambulance** » Tue Oct 20, 2015 1:40 am

"The Green Party keeps its one seat in the House of Commons. That is in Saanich-Gulf Islands and is held by leader Elizabeth May"

just one??

never heard of Saanich-Gulf Islands...

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Oct 20, 2015 8:09 am

hitbyambulance wrote:"The Green Party keeps its one seat in the House of Commons. That is in Saanich-Gulf Islands and is held by leader Elizabeth May"

just one??

never heard of Saanich-Gulf Islands...

SSW of Vancouver, apparently consisting of the old and/or immigrants:

More than 21 per cent of the residents are immigrants, and more than 19 per cent are older than 65, making this the riding with the third largest senior population in Canada. The riding has a median age of 48.3, making it the riding with the highest median age in Canada.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Oct 20, 2015 8:31 am

hitbyambulance wrote:"The Green Party keeps its one seat in the House of Commons. That is in Saanich-Gulf Islands and is held by leader Elizabeth May"

just one??

never heard of Saanich-Gulf Islands...

The party caucus must be interesting.

"The chair recognizes Ms. May". "Thank you, Ms. May. I vote to make Elizabeth May the new Green Party leader in the House of Commons." "I second Ms. May's motion." "All in support...and the motion passes." "I would like to thank the entire party for my unanimous election."