Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Wed Aug 24, 2016 5:34 pm

Canadian real estate market.

Hey Max, not sure if you've got any money in real estate, but what're your thoughts on the next 3-5 years?

Same question on the dollar?

Anyone with an opinion is welcome to voice it.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Wed Aug 24, 2016 6:03 pm

All that lost permafrost is going to make for some great summer homes.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Thu Aug 25, 2016 9:01 am

Newcastle wrote:Anyway, when you guys start really digging into stocks what do you do? What do you look at? I know look at the balance sheets, look at P/E and its cohort and so forth. But what else do you guys do besides balance sheet investigation? Where do you go to find out info? Trying to build my tool kit in investigating stocks right now. I have still have a good chunk of change that I can dip into the market, but I dont want to yet till after Yellen's speech and I want to see how September does in terms of volatility.

I'm still very new to this and not very good.

If I could start over I would watch the market and daily market news programs for a while before dipping in to any security not an ETF named SPY/VT/VTI. While I consider my initial purchases good after all of this time, after three years they're still losing money from having purchased at such a high spike. I think my first individual securities were F at around $18 and FGP at around $28. The former is doing well at above $12 and the later is high at $20 threeish years later. Even though I knew the market was "high" at the time I couldn't grasp what the really meant. I still don't get why CVS took a shit after some exposure on how other companies were entering the market and that still hasn't recovered either.

During the waiting time I would take the time, while watching things like Nightly Business Reports, I would take the time to find out about the company, how it's in the news, it's growth plan. And for me, "do I see them being around in 20 years and still making money?" and that's because everything I do is buy and hold and then try to take in account how this purchase will contribute to my retirement. I'm sure eventually I'll have to sell some securities or "balance my portfolio" but the plan for me is to accumulate and forget until I think I'm good enough to retire.... Even if I look at my securities every day...

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Fri Aug 26, 2016 10:20 am

Epipen social media out rage seems to have destroyed my CVS after it already took a bad hit on that whole examination of the increased "Pharmacy Benefit Management" providers. Now at it's within sight of its 52 week low and likely hasn't hit the floor.

Ouch

I have such a knack for picking winners at the perfect time. Oi. I really need to learn to hold my money until after bad news about a company I like is announced.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Fri Aug 26, 2016 10:50 am

Thanks LM. I've always watched CNBC in some capacity or another over the years. I'm now watching it more carefully when able to. I got a subscription to Wall St. journal but I think I might let that lapse, i really dont like the political hit pieces. Plus being owned by Fox limits their objectivity I think. I dont mind political viewpoints; i just have to wonder how that impacts their ability to truly report economic & business issues. However they have a lot of good data and information on their individual stock pages, so that might be the only reason I hold on to it. There is another paper out there called "investor's business daily" which I'll get a free trial in a few days. I am hoping they provide good data and information source so i can swap out the WSJ.

I did get a trial to the The street, jim cramer's website. Which has been informative. I am still not sure if i will keep it though; need to really go through it prior to the free trial running out in a couple of weeks. I like the thrust of it though. I also like watching cramer on mad money too; i feel like i learn a lot about how to look at stocks.

Right now I've only got two moves in the market. But i've got about 3-4 other stocks i might move in to. Netflix (i think their story isn't over by far; but am waiting for a price to drop); Nvidia (i think they are gonna have a great earnings next quarter; the 1080 launch); ATT (solid company & earnings; plus great customer service & Direct TV).

I realize i have to do a lot more research. The only moves i may consider if the price is right is the first two. I am hoping for a dip in the market in september to enter the fray further; till then its back to the batcave and do some research.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:16 am

When it comes to media, you might want to PM Noxious Dog. He's made recommendations in the past and is quite versed on periodicals and investor subscription guides.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:35 am

I'll go back through the thread this weekend see what i can pick up. Thanks LM.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Fri Aug 26, 2016 2:45 pm

Newcastle wrote: Second - AMD - this was a bit of a gamble, but i think i might exit out of it in 1-2 years. I like reviews the latest cards have gotten for one. Secondly the Zen architecture got some good buzz on it. I caught it last week in the midst of its little surge, but have no regrets yet. The downside is they have some heavy debt load which is worrisome. I think the first exit point for me will be in Feb. after the xmas retailing season. Not sure if i want to hold it long term though. Really will depend.

I was wondering the cause for the down day today and i think it was pre market positioning on Yellen's speech.

Anyway, when you guys start really digging into stocks what do you do? What do you look at? I know look at the balance sheets, look at P/E and its cohort and so forth. But what else do you guys do besides balance sheet investigation? Where do you go to find out info? Trying to build my tool kit in investigating stocks right now. I have still have a good chunk of change that I can dip into the market, but I dont want to yet till after Yellen's speech and I want to see how September does in terms of volatility.

I look at stocks for a long time before diving in. I may put a few $K in to keep it on my watch list and have some skin in the game but before putting serious money in, it has to be on watch for a while. For example, I've been following AMD for like 12 years (along with TSM, INTC, etc) and it took nearly that long to find an entry point and time where I felt comfortable putting some real money in. To last week's move in perspective, my current cost basis is $2.10. That's just long shares. I did a ton of options on the way up too.

If everyone loves it, I don't bother. If everyone hates it, I might bother but not simply because everyone hates it. Otherwise I look for stocks I think are undervalued based on measures I've learned to feel comfortable with analyzing. Not on measures everyone says to use and they way everyone says to use them but things I've learned to use over time.

However, buying stocks for appreciation is only about 50% of my personally managed portfolio. For short term moves I like to use options or stock/option combos.

Newcastle wrote:
So just entered the market recently. Went with two items.

First FB- i simply think its a good long term play...ie 5-10 years. I think they have a lot going for it and i think they are at a good intersection to get VR right, and if not then they'll buy the company that does. IN terms of VR i think they can really integrate it in a social way as well.

Personally, if I'm in that general space thinking long term, I'm looking at GOOGL.

You're going to want to diversify as you put more in. I think a nice big investment in an index ETF or something similar is a good start.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Aug 29, 2016 11:10 am

If CVS drops below 90 (losing a full 10% on my initial dip into the security) it's going to be hard not to double down (with money I can't afford) on the money that is already flying out the window. This is why I need to build a bigger savings in between putting money in.

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Mon Aug 29, 2016 11:15 am

Hey Lawbeef, did you end up doing that tutorial on options that I asked about last year (I think it was last year)?

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Aug 29, 2016 11:16 am

News Oracle (link provided by Google Finance)

CVS Health Corporation (NYSE:CVS) reported its last earnings on Aug 02 BMO (BMO = before market open, AMC= after market close). The company will report its next earnings on 8-Nov-16. The company reported the earnings of $1.32/Share in the last quarter where the estimated EPS by analysts was $1.3/share. The difference between the expected and actual EPS was $0.02/share, which represents an Earnings surprise of 1.5%.

Many analysts are providing their Estimated Earnings analysis for CVS Health Corporation and for the current quarter 23 analysts have projected that the stock could give an Average Earnings estimate of $1.57/share. These analysts have also projected a Low Estimate of $1.55/share and a High Estimate of $1.59/share.
...
These analysts also forecasted Growth Estimates for the Current Quarter for CVS to be 22.7%. They are projecting Next Quarter growth of 17%. For the next 5 years, CVS Health Corporation is expecting Growth of 14.58% per annum, whereas in the past 5 years the growth was 14.63% per annum.
...
To analyze a stock, one should look for Upgrades and Downgrades of a stock. CVS Health Corporation got Downgrade on 20-Jun-16 where investment firm Morgan Stanley Downgrade the stock from Overweight to Equal-Weight.

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Mon Aug 29, 2016 11:18 am

LordMortis wrote:If CVS drops below 90 (losing a full 10% on my initial dip into the security) it's going to be hard not to double down (with money I can't afford) on the money that is already flying out the window. This is why I need to build a bigger savings in between putting money in.

I enjoyed watching Nortel drop from a billion per share to zero, and all the way down people were jumping in because it couldn't go much lower.

I didn't get in until 11 bucks and grabbed some more at 7. It's a good reminder to understand why something is dropping before cost averaging your costs lower.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Aug 29, 2016 11:26 am

CVS was slumping already likely because of news Issy reported about more pharmacy middle men entering the picture. They were just starting to recover when the EpiPen stuff hit. CVS are taking a hit for being part of a price gouging system, as Mylan are blaming distribution for taking such a big bite.

Sample news recent item

http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Co ... 72529.html

There is also news the their purchase of Target's Pharmacies is not doing as well as anticipated.

https://consumerist.com/2016/08/23/cust ... harmacies/

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Aug 29, 2016 11:33 am

GreenGoo wrote:Hey Lawbeef, did you end up doing that tutorial on options that I asked about last year (I think it was last year)?

I didn't. Thanks for putting it back on the radar though. Been really busy but I'll see if I can get some of it written down.

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Mon Aug 29, 2016 11:57 am

Again, I'm not trying to assign work to you. If you're interested in writing your thoughts on the matter, I'm sure I'm not alone in being interested in reading them.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Fri Sep 09, 2016 2:27 pm

Trying to save for a new car before I need a new car and have put my dreams of retirement on hold. No matter I wouldn't have enough saved to put anything down today if I did, but boy do I want to. VT is currently down 2.19% on the day after a down day yesterday. VTI down 2.09. SPY down 1.95. ... Which is to say my whole portfolio also almost down from my initial investment and would be considered back to down if you include the taxes I've been paying on dividends. It looks like all of the big players are down around 2% on the day.

apparently someone hinted at a rate hike.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/mar ... /90114650/

I'm a little surprised this talk and possibly action is happening before this specific presidential election.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Fri Sep 09, 2016 5:12 pm

Got to love programmatic trading - it leads to wacky days like this.

apparently someone hinted at a rate hike.

Someone noticed that a dovish Fed member is speaking Monday. And the leap to conclusion is she is going to warn about a rate hike. Randomly. The tea leaf diviners are kvetching that it is a day before the Fed media blackout starts before the next Fed meeting. Economic data has been hum drum so a rate hike was off the menu in most traders' opinion so everyone feels like they will be offsides in their positions. My dime store opinion is it would have been a great day to take upside options because I think the conventional wisdom holds and there will not be a rate hike in September and the whole thing is going to reverse itself. Maybe even Monday after she speaks.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Fri Sep 09, 2016 5:15 pm

malchior wrote:Someone noticed that a dovish Fed member is speaking Monday. And the leap to conclusion is she is going to warn about a rate hike. Randomly.

Or, you know, someone actually said something:

The return of volatility was sparked by comments from Federal Reserve Bank of Boston president Eric Rosengren that suggests a September rate hike might not be totally off the table. The so-called "hawkish" commentary follows the European Central Bank decision this week to keep rates at current levels -- a disappointment to investors who thought additional stimulus was needed to get the eurozone economy moving again.
...
In a speech earlier Friday, Rosengren's said: "My personal view, based on data that we have received to date, is that a reasonable case can be made for continuing to pursue a gradual normalization of monetary policy."

Those words rattled investors who had pretty much written off a interest rate increase at the Fed's Sept. 20-21 meeting following the weaker-than-expected August jobs report. Although Rosengren did not specifically mention September, his words leave the door open to a rate hike sooner than many investors expected. Low rates have been a key driver of higher stock prices.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Fri Sep 09, 2016 5:49 pm

Wow! I had CNBC on all day (in the background) and they kept going on about the speech on Monday - didn't catch a comment about the remarks today. Either way it still seems really unlikely they raise rates and this all unwinds and I'd still stand by my programmatic trading remark. The market rings like a bell now with all the HF trading - with increasing ferocity depending on how unexpected the remarks are. But his remarks plus the rumors about the speech on Monday really seemed to cause a bit of an overreaction. The chance of a rate hike is still like 30% max.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Sep 12, 2016 12:42 pm

Major indices up at least 0.5% early.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Sep 12, 2016 3:05 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:Major indices up at least 0.5% early.

A little under a half percent of a full bounce back today. It beats a kick in the nuts. No money put in during that Friday's dip, as I am trying to save for a car, I think. That, and I don't have enough in my car fund to warrant diverting that money into a $7 trade.

Saving is slow.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Sep 12, 2016 4:39 pm

1.32 - 1.68% up. Not back up to Thursday numbers yet, but every bit helps.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Tue Sep 13, 2016 10:37 am

SPY under 214.

Temptation to take car money and savings and emergency savings I should never touch and buy some VYM getting stronger. If it dips below $70, I may not be able to resist. That would set me back on a a new car and feelings of emergency comfort a long way.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Sep 13, 2016 12:48 pm

With the wage data hitting today we now see why even some of the Fed doves were strongly hinting at a rate hike. The inflationistas are finally going to have their day after *years* of being dead wrong. Rate hike chance is gotta be near 100% by year end. The punch bowl is being taken away finally.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Tue Sep 13, 2016 1:19 pm

malchior wrote:With the wage data hitting today we now see why even some of the Fed doves were strongly hinting at a rate hike. The inflationistas are finally going to have their day after *years* of being dead wrong. Rate hike chance is gotta be near 100% by year end. The punch bowl is being taken away finally.

Newsfeeds are picking up the wage increases but are divorcing it from WallStreet (and rate hike) news. Instead, I'm reading they are saying it's the energy sector reports, specifically that the US is drilling too much oil.

Sample

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-price ... 08510.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-s ... SKCN11J19G

I do like this for the economic turmoil thread:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/business/20 ... story.html

The nine year trickle down?

em2nought · Post by **em2nought** » Wed Sep 14, 2016 1:46 am

IMF, SDRs, reserve currency, the dollar, October 1st? Worry, or no big deal?

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Sep 14, 2016 11:47 am

Mv CVS has gone below $90. Can you say ouch? If I were made of money I'd double down. It's probably a good thing I'm not made of money as I don't think it's bottomed out yet. I imagine we are on rollercoaster governed by gravity right now.

F also looks like it might rollercoaster to below $12 and again, if I were made of money that's a magic line for me.

Boy did I pick my individual securities poorly when it comes to performance over the last 2 to 3 years....

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Wed Sep 14, 2016 12:52 pm

LM - i was looking into F for a bit, but one of the big turnoffs for me was that they were very exposed to China. And frankly i dont trust data that comes out of China. I think the Gov. has too much control there for us to honestly and accurately understand whats going on. Also from what I've picked up from watching CNBC the situation is worse than what's being reported. Not trying to be anti china, but simply saying until i can really trust the data comign from them, I think i will avoid them in terms of stock picking. So long way of saying, i am avoiding companies that are A. dependent on China for growth B. have too much exposure there.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Sep 14, 2016 1:00 pm

I don't blame you, but I am fairly loyal, as they put bread on the table when I grew up and they pay 5% when they dip below $12 so long as they don't suspend their dividend. I don't understand growth stocks enough to trust that I'll know how to ride their rollercoasters up and down. I do trust Ford to be relatively honest, like when they said the Brexit vote alone would cost them a billion dollars and it tanked their stock. But no matter how you look at it, I started at a peak that was way too high (based largely on China) and I'll be hoping to bounce back to that peak one day.

I've gotten "smarter" and mostly put my money in to indexes and they have been more of leveled slow increase back toward that peak than any of my individual securities have been, even if the individual securities have more news and more interesting to watch.

Edit

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/busine ... /90354444/

The horrible thing is this shouldn't be news

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/ford-will-m ... to-mexico/

but sheep run the asylum...

http://redstatewatcher.com/article.asp?id=37537

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:07 pm

FGP down $3.35 on profit loss and accumulated debt announcement and that's after week of steady decline. I don't think this will end well for me. Between that and CVS (and to a lesser extent Ford tumbling on Trump's campaign lunacy), I've learned a valuable (costly?) lesson on sticking with indexes... And yet, I'm not cutting my losses, like I should. And they are big (to me) losses on paper right now. FGP now stands at half of what I bought it for, literally at its peak, now at a 5 year low.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Thu Sep 29, 2016 3:55 pm

VYM looked like a good entry for me today. But I stayed strong and committed to the idea that I need rebulid my savings and work toward paying for a new car before I need a new car.

It was hard not to move more money in today, while everything I own is taking a turn toward the ugly. If the ugliness persists to lower the bar, it's going to be even harder.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:45 pm

My FGP continues to collapse. Kiss that money good bye. I bought my first shares at $28 and my cheapest shares at $18. It's now less than $10. Dividends have been cut and when you do a search on what's up, you mainly get law firms all over the place want to sue investigate FGP for fraud on behalf of investors over the loss announcement and termination of the CEO.

Again, lesson painfully learned about buy and hold being for indexes and as I only want to buy and hold, I really need to stop investing in individual securities, a lesson I won't be applying for some months to come.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:47 pm

That's some pro-pain.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:53 pm

In today's worthless advice news

C-J simulations suggest a 15% chance the S&P 500 will decline by 5% or more in October.

C-J suggests a 44.7% chance the S&P 500 will decline in October.

C-J simulations estimate a 44.6% chance the market will end October above 2190.15.

Excuse me while I go flip a coin.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:42 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:That's some pro-pain.

Between that, CVS, and masses listening to Trump about how Ford is sending all of our jobs to Mexico, almost every thing I own that isn't an index is in shambles in otherwise flat market coming out of some good gains. While I'm mostly in indexes is already, it will be a while before I dip back in to individual stocks again... except since Lawbeef point me at FRIP, my dividends are currently going to Ford until I get a nice round number of shares. o:

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Oct 13, 2016 10:53 am

Bought more F (shares) today. Not because it's down, though that's a little bonus.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Thu Oct 13, 2016 11:39 am

Bought some CVS last month so I could empathize more fully with LM's bitching.

Only about 5% of retirement portfolio, but I will definitely add more if it drops to the lower 80's. I feel I bought at a slightly higher valuation than I would normally when entering a new position (I REALLY like sales, and CVS @ $89 seems like an OK price, but not great)

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Thu Oct 13, 2016 12:10 pm

I'm staying out of individual securities until I shore up a lot more money in my indexes. <harumph>

I'm getting killed in every direction but the most in pretty much ever individual security I've chosen. My aggregate savings down is Yuge at the moment. Over 10% over the course of nearly three years of tucking money away. I don't see a short term bounce back overcoming that 10%. With that, SPY flirting with $211 is weakening my resolve to rebuild my savings that includes saving enough to buy a new car in the next couple of years.

Anytime F drops below $12, it's tempting. $12 seems to be some sort of magic sea leveling, where I'd be happy to just stay at 5% in dividends and run with it. I do fear it will go lower than 12% for a while. The Trump effect on denouncing the movement of the Focus to Mexico seems to be brutal. However, I'm in all my investments for the long haul, so all sub $12 says to me is I wish I were made of money so I could get more.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Fri Oct 14, 2016 11:23 am

"There's nothing like a good sales report out of China, an increasingly important market for global automakers, especially after U.S. new-vehicle sales checked in with an unremarkable month. After the first quarter brought very volatile swings in Chinese new-vehicle sales, it definitely looks like Ford Motor Company's (NYSE:F) results have improved sequentially over the past few months."

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Fri Oct 14, 2016 12:18 pm

Carpet_pissr wrote:"There's nothing like a good sales report out of China, an increasingly important market for global automakers, especially after U.S. new-vehicle sales checked in with an unremarkable month. After the first quarter brought very volatile swings in Chinese new-vehicle sales, it definitely looks like Ford Motor Company's (NYSE:F) results have improved sequentially over the past few months."

Lincoln sales there have tripled. They're considering starting to build them there for the Chinese market. However I think the Chinese love then because they're American. Tough call. I mean the brand is named after the American king best known for combating zombies and inventing the lever action rifle. Hard to sell that image if car doesn't come from the former tank factory in war-ravaged Detroit.

Also, I think all the dealerships over there are Ford-owned. No middlemen. Except maybe the bribes.