Octopus Overlords

Here's another bad take:

Here's my bad take: Putin's just getting Mother Russia ready to defend against the inevitable onslaught of Islam after Islam conquers weak willed Europe without firing a shot.

I admit to not really understanding the intricacies of geopolitical relations. But why, if a democratic sovereign nation is being invaded for no reason, is no nation helping defend them? Do they have no treaties or resources whatsoever? Or is it nobody wants to go against Russia? If that's the case, what's to stop Putin from just taking Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, etc?

The risk of nuclear war is why. The worst, worst case is Putin does go after Baltic states and forces NATO to respond or fall apart.

Formix wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:39 am I admit to not really understanding the intricacies of geopolitical relations. But why, if a democratic sovereign nation is being invaded for no reason, is no nation helping defend them? Do they have no treaties or resources whatsoever? Or is it nobody wants to go against Russia? If that's the case, what's to stop Putin from just taking Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, etc?

Fighting on behalf of a nation on that nation's soil is like being a vampire in front of someone's house. You have to be invited in first. Here is what the Ukrainian president said last week:

We have no need for soldiers with foreign flags on our territory. We are not asking for that. Otherwise the entire world will be destabilized.
We do not want to give any additional reason for Russia to say we have (foreign) bases here that they need to 'defend' themselves against.
"But we want everything else," Zelensky added in reference to funding and arms delivered from Ukraine's western allies.

To date, I have not heard the Ukrainian president "invite" any foreign troops in. Presumably Ukraine has been receiving funds and equipment, they just don't want to blab about it.

Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania are already part of NATO. Hence no need for vampire invite. If they are invaded then NATO is obligated to go in and drive the Russians out.

em2nought wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 2:40 am Here's my bad take: Putin's just getting Mother Russia ready to defend against the inevitable onslaught of Islam after Islam conquers weak willed Europe without firing a shot.

Yeah, cause they did such a great job in Chechnya.

Keep in mind that the CW is that Zelensky is way out of his depth here. Also, you don't make an invitation when you know everyone will say no.

malchior wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:02 am Keep in mind that the CW is that Zelensky is way out of his depth here. Also, you don't make an invitation when you know everyone will say no.

Not being a mind reader I can only go by actions. Anything else is pretending to be a mind reader.

raydude wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:03 am

malchior wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:02 am Keep in mind that the CW is that Zelensky is way out of his depth here. Also, you don't make an invitation when you know everyone will say no.

Not being a mind reader I can only go by actions. Anything else is pretending to be a mind reader.

It's almost like this lack of mind reading required the creation of intelligence agencies and expert analysis.

em2nought wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 2:40 am Here's my bad take: Putin's just getting Mother Russia ready to defend against the inevitable onslaught of Islam after Islam conquers weak willed Europe without firing a shot.

Here’s my take: Trumpers hate democracy and are hoping Putin comes and takes America soon.

hepcat wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:39 am

em2nought wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 2:40 am Here's my bad take: Putin's just getting Mother Russia ready to defend against the inevitable onslaught of Islam after Islam conquers weak willed Europe without firing a shot.

Here’s my take: Trumpers hate democracy and are hoping Putin comes and takes America soon.

MUSSRGA

malchior wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:57 am The risk of nuclear war is why. The worst, worst case is Putin does go after Baltic states and forces NATO to respond or fall apart.

Yeah, a lot of people at work have been talking about how they are concerned and this was my response. If Putin attacks a NATO country, that's when I'll begin to worry.

raydude wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:00 am To date, I have not heard the Ukrainian president "invite" any foreign troops in. Presumably Ukraine has been receiving funds and equipment, they just don't want to blab about it.

IIRC, Ukraine has specifically stated that they are not asking for foreign troops to fight for them. They have openly solicited and received arms and equipment.

Russia-Ukraine crisis: Who supplies weapons to Kyiv?

Almost every day, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Resnikov posts new pictures on his Twitter account, invariably showing large transport planes crammed with huge heavy crates. Inside the crates are weapons and ammunition that the US and UK are sending to Ukraine.

The purpose is to strengthen Ukrainein the face of the massive Russian troop buildup on its border. According to the Ukrainian government, Western partners have already provided Kyiv with $1.5 billion in military aid. Germany has so far rejected arms deliveries to Ukraine.

If we don't fight when he comes for the Baltic Republics, who actually are members of NATO, the whole world order comes unbound as NATO will be revealed to be worthless as will the word of the United States. I can understand looking at a map, seeing how far away they are, and wondering whether it's worth the cost of lives and material, but at the same time, if we don't, it sets the stage for much bloodier conflicts in the future in situations America will have a tougher time manipulating, let alone managing or controlling.

dbt1949 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 1:55 am Well, it's on. Let's see if these sanctions are worth a shit. They certainly ain't goona stop Putin.

CNBC suggested the Russian warchest is about 700 billion which is larger than their national debt and could finance them for several seasons before they'd flinch at even the most draconian sanctions. They're suggesting right now it's all about removing Russia from SWIFT, which Europe will not do.

I'm also... is surprised the word?... that CNBC said China are blaming Washington for Putin's invasion.

hepcat wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:39 am Here’s my take: Trumpers hate democracy and are hoping Putin comes and takes America soon.

Sure feels that way. They want Putin to have his hands up his Trumpupet ass all the way into his Trumpupet authoritarian worshiping brain.

Yeah I've never believed that the sanctions were going to do much of anything. Putin's no fool, and there's no way he invaded without fully understanding the global consequences of his actions. He definitely believes he's coming out on top of the risk/reward calculation, and I have no reason to believe he is incorrect.

YellowKing wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 10:12 am Yeah I've never believed that the sanctions were going to do much of anything. Putin's no fool, and there's no way he invaded without fully understanding the global consequences of his actions. He definitely believes he's coming out on top of the risk/reward calculation, and I have no reason to believe he is incorrect.

They've been preparing for months, protecting assets and isolating the war chest. The sanctions will cause some pain but when you're committing bodies to war, minor economic pains aren't going to be enough to stop you.

We (NATO/the West) either have to attack Russia's economy overwhelmingly, as in riots in the streets, or we will have to defend republics with force. Or there's always Appeasement.

LordMortis wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 10:10 am I'm also... is surprised the word?... that CNBC said China are blaming Washington for Putin's invasion.

Hey, China's going to need support when they try to invade Taiwan...

Dogstar wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 10:30 am

LordMortis wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 10:10 am I'm also... is surprised the word?... that CNBC said China are blaming Washington for Putin's invasion.

Hey, China's going to need support when they try to invade Taiwan...

They've already made their stance clear.

BEIJING/TAIPEI, Feb 23 (Reuters) - Taiwan is "not Ukraine" and has always been an inalienable part of China, China's foreign ministry said on Wednesday, as Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen called for the island to beef up vigilance on military activities in response to the crisis.

They don't have to "retake" Taiwan because Taiwan has always been China. The only question is when they rein in the wayward province.

stessier wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:33 am

malchior wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:57 am The risk of nuclear war is why. The worst, worst case is Putin does go after Baltic states and forces NATO to respond or fall apart.

Yeah, a lot of people at work have been talking about how they are concerned and this was my response. If Putin attacks a NATO country, that's when I'll begin to worry.

Yeah, let them have Sudetenland Ukraine. They're ethnic speakers of the mother tongue after all.

YellowKing wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 10:12 am Yeah I've never believed that the sanctions were going to do much of anything. Putin's no fool, and there's no way he invaded without fully understanding the global consequences of his actions. He definitely believes he's coming out on top of the risk/reward calculation, and I have no reason to believe he is incorrect.

Presuming he's no fool would mean stopping at Ukraine. But that opens him up to occupying a possibly intensely hostile country and potentially outside funded and supplied resistance movement. I don't see how that ends with him coming out on top.

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 10:52 am

stessier wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:33 am

malchior wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:57 am The risk of nuclear war is why. The worst, worst case is Putin does go after Baltic states and forces NATO to respond or fall apart.

Yeah, a lot of people at work have been talking about how they are concerned and this was my response. If Putin attacks a NATO country, that's when I'll begin to worry.

Yeah, let them have Sudetenland Ukraine. They're ethnic speakers of the mother tongue after all.

I'm not saying that - I'm saying that unless we are willing to shoot back, we're doing all we can in the Ukraine and Putin knows it. If he believes NATO is weak enough that he believes he can get away with attacking one of the member countries, that's when it's time to worry.

YellowKing wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 10:12 am Yeah I've never believed that the sanctions were going to do much of anything. Putin's no fool, and there's no way he invaded without fully understanding the global consequences of his actions. He definitely believes he's coming out on top of the risk/reward calculation, and I have no reason to believe he is incorrect.

A lot of eastern bloc experts are wondering if this was ultimately a huge strategic blunder barring a quick surrender by Ukraine. The Russians could be looking at years of insurgency. They been fighting 8 years in eastern Ukraine though they never rolled in the big guns like they are now but this was a dice roll.

I was looking at it from the West's response perspective in terms of risk/reward. Whether trying to occupy Ukraine is a strategic blunder remains to be seen (I agree, history would seem to indicate that it is). I liked the "bear swallowing a porcupine" analogy.

stessier wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 11:06 am

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 10:52 am

stessier wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:33 am

malchior wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:57 am The risk of nuclear war is why. The worst, worst case is Putin does go after Baltic states and forces NATO to respond or fall apart.

Yeah, a lot of people at work have been talking about how they are concerned and this was my response. If Putin attacks a NATO country, that's when I'll begin to worry.

Yeah, let them have Sudetenland Ukraine. They're ethnic speakers of the mother tongue after all.

I'm not saying that - I'm saying that unless we are willing to shoot back, we're doing all we can in the Ukraine and Putin knows it. If he believes NATO is weak enough that he believes he can get away with attacking one of the member countries, that's when it's time to worry.

That'd signal a level of crazy in Putin that most didn't expect. But then again many of them didn't expect this. However, the likelier risk is accidental engagement. That is why any military/diplomatic personnel of any shape or form were moved out. There is probably no scenario where the West is going to intentionally engage with Russian forces absent a Russian break out.

Russian troops breach area near Chernobyl, adviser to Ukrainian minister says

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 022-02-24/

malchior wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 11:10 am

YellowKing wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 10:12 am Yeah I've never believed that the sanctions were going to do much of anything. Putin's no fool, and there's no way he invaded without fully understanding the global consequences of his actions. He definitely believes he's coming out on top of the risk/reward calculation, and I have no reason to believe he is incorrect.

A lot of eastern bloc experts are wondering if this was ultimately a huge strategic blunder barring a quick surrender by Ukraine. The Russians could be looking at years of insurgency. They been fighting 8 years in eastern Ukraine though they never rolled in the big guns like they are now but this was a dice roll.

Yeah, what's the end game here? This is only going to cause more hatred of Russia. How long will Russian troops be tied down in occupation duties? Ukraine is bigger than Iraq with 3 times the people. Putin's force is less than the US invasion force in the last Iraq war. If he withdraws and leaves behind a puppet govt how long with they be able to last? I don't think even Putin is ready to go back to shooting people in the streets to enforce Russian demands. Is he going to recreate the Berlin wall along the Ukrainian border - we are going to see tons of refugees from Ukraine.

YellowKing wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 11:13 am I was looking at it from the West's response perspective in terms of risk/reward. Whether trying to occupy Ukraine is a strategic blunder remains to be seen (I agree, history would seem to indicate that it is). I liked the "bear swallowing a porcupine" analogy.

Gotcha. Yeah the West has no real levers here so this isn't all that unexpected. I think though this at least showed that our intelligence efforts in Russia are spot on. They were labeled as alarmist but they essentially showed that Russia is a clear aggressor here. All attempts at justification seem to have been weakened significantly.

Grifman wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 11:16 am

malchior wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 11:10 am

YellowKing wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 10:12 am Yeah I've never believed that the sanctions were going to do much of anything. Putin's no fool, and there's no way he invaded without fully understanding the global consequences of his actions. He definitely believes he's coming out on top of the risk/reward calculation, and I have no reason to believe he is incorrect.

A lot of eastern bloc experts are wondering if this was ultimately a huge strategic blunder barring a quick surrender by Ukraine. The Russians could be looking at years of insurgency. They been fighting 8 years in eastern Ukraine though they never rolled in the big guns like they are now but this was a dice roll.

Yeah, what's the end game here? This is only going to cause more hatred of Russia. How long will Russian troops be tied down in occupation duties? Ukraine is bigger than Iraq with 3 times the people. Putin's force is less than the US invasion force in the last Iraq war. If he withdraws and leaves behind a puppet govt how long with they be able to last? I don't think even Putin is ready to go back to shooting people in the streets to enforce Russian demands. Is he going to recreate the Berlin wall along the Ukrainian border - we are going to see tons of refugees from Ukraine.

No one understands the end game for this. It doesn't make sense to anyone. I read one idea was that the Russians might be trying to shatter the Ukraine. They'll gobble up the pieces they can and leave behind a dysfunctional mess/create a refugee crisis and put more pressure on Europe. That at least had the merit of being achievable. But it is all a guessing game because what Putin says makes no sense. Demilitarization of the Ukraine? Denazification? It's all crazy stuff.

I just read that Russian troops did a Normandy style air drop outside Kyiv and is trying (or took) a military base there. They are trying a blitzkreig.

Edit: Confirmed by CNN too - the Russians took the Antonov airbase right outside Kyiv.

Reporter on the scene

People are speculating that the Russians are leaving electricity/internet up to allow people to see that they are losing badly and force Zelensky to capitulate quickly. Which could easily backfire because folks like Vindman have commented that they think the Russians are actually weaker than expected. Caveat that he is outside the government and doesn't have the best intel but I saw it as a positive comment.

Grifman wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 12:54 am Good article on the “Putin Doctrine”:

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles ... n-doctrine

Thanks for that. Good read.

malchior wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 1:26 am

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 12:53 am It’s made the cut for a 2nd printing on P500. I look forward to adding it to my massive backlog, especially seeing as I never finished processing NW:Korea.

Same here. I recently picked up NW: Vietnam and have yet to crack it.

And now I've ordered Vietnam and P500d Taiwan and Supplement 3.

Random thought - this would be a great time for the Belarussian pro-democracy protests to re-appear. Also, we need to expand sanctions and penalties against Belarussian politicians and oligarchs as well.

Random thought 2 - this will have impacts on energy and food costs here in the United States. I expect the treasonous Republicans to leverage this to their advantage. The administration should be preparing people for this reality.

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 11:30 am

Grifman wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 12:54 am Good article on the “Putin Doctrine”:

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles ... n-doctrine

Thanks for that. Good read.

malchior wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 1:26 am

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 12:53 am It’s made the cut for a 2nd printing on P500. I look forward to adding it to my massive backlog, especially seeing as I never finished processing NW:Korea.

Same here. I recently picked up NW: Vietnam and have yet to crack it.

And now I've ordered Vietnam and P500d Taiwan and Supplement 3.

Post about them in the general gaming thread after you've had a chance to play the Vietnam entry at least. I'm curious about the series.

malchior wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 11:34 am Random thought 2 - this will have impacts on energy and food costs here in the United States. I expect the treasonous Republicans to leverage this to their advantage. The administration should be preparing people for this reality.

I've already seen locals blaming Biden for higher gas prices now because he (1) shut down the pipeline and (2) didn't deal with Putin.

Formix wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:39 am I admit to not really understanding the intricacies of geopolitical relations. But why, if a democratic sovereign nation is being invaded for no reason, is no nation helping defend them? Do they have no treaties or resources whatsoever? Or is it nobody wants to go against Russia? If that's the case, what's to stop Putin from just taking Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, etc?

Ukraine is not a member of NATO, or any other mutual-defense military alliance. Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania are all members of NATO.

malchior wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:02 am Keep in mind that the CW is that Zelensky is way out of his depth here. Also, you don't make an invitation when you know everyone will say no.

He's an actor who won because he was on a popular TV show where he played the president, and he is a basically decent person who was running against a corrupt thug. I don't think he was prepared for this job.

Grifman wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 11:16 am

malchior wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 11:10 am

YellowKing wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 10:12 am Yeah I've never believed that the sanctions were going to do much of anything. Putin's no fool, and there's no way he invaded without fully understanding the global consequences of his actions. He definitely believes he's coming out on top of the risk/reward calculation, and I have no reason to believe he is incorrect.

A lot of eastern bloc experts are wondering if this was ultimately a huge strategic blunder barring a quick surrender by Ukraine. The Russians could be looking at years of insurgency. They been fighting 8 years in eastern Ukraine though they never rolled in the big guns like they are now but this was a dice roll.

Yeah, what's the end game here? This is only going to cause more hatred of Russia. How long will Russian troops be tied down in occupation duties? Ukraine is bigger than Iraq with 3 times the people. Putin's force is less than the US invasion force in the last Iraq war. If he withdraws and leaves behind a puppet govt how long with they be able to last? I don't think even Putin is ready to go back to shooting people in the streets to enforce Russian demands. Is he going to recreate the Berlin wall along the Ukrainian border - we are going to see tons of refugees from Ukraine.

It's really nothing like Iraq strategically or tactically. It's more like Kuwait. This isn't going to be a protracted occupation. It will be over relatively shortly, one way or the other.

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 11:48 am

malchior wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 11:34 am Random thought 2 - this will have impacts on energy and food costs here in the United States. I expect the treasonous Republicans to leverage this to their advantage. The administration should be preparing people for this reality.

I've already seen locals blaming Biden for higher gas prices now because he (1) shut down the pipeline and (2) didn't deal with Putin.

That is the sounding horn for my right-wing coworkers. It's like they don't understand that Putin isn't doing this in retaliation for shutting down the pipeline. They are doing this because they want to reunify the old USSR. The only way the US government could have "dealt" with Putin is to put him down like a rabid dog, because nothing else on Earth would have stopped him. Sanctions? He doesn't care about the Russian people, he has money to burn in his fireplace on a cold Siberian night. Strongly-worded emails? Pfft. Trump says it wouldn't have happened on his watch. How would he have stopped him? Paying him off? Making it seem like it's Ukraine's responsibility to reunite with The Motherland? Building another hotel on Russian soil that Putin can scrape money off the top?

So the thing is you don't just sanction the Russian people, you sanction the Russian billionaire class, who Putin depends upon for his political support. We should take the package of sanctions we used against Iran and start from there, adding in significant sanctions on wealthy individuals connected to Russia. Freeze all their assets in the West. Deny any Russia-based corporation access to dollars or euros or the international banking system. Expel from Western countries any and all Russian-national employees of businesses close to Putin, and all family members of executives of those businesses, including young people attending Western schools. Personal pain targeting the people Putin needs support from will likely be more impactful than generalized sanctions on the Russian population.