Octopus Overlords

Blackhawk wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:01 pm Shorter version, if it wiped out China, it would wipe out the rest of us, too.

It's not going to have a 100% fatality rate and not everyone will catch it. So it can't wipe out everyone .

Now if it kills enough people to shut down powerplants and food infrastructure, leave nuclear plants unstaffed, leave nations defenseless militarily...we'll do the rest.

Shh...don't spoil the plot line!

Smoove_B wrote: Sat Jan 25, 2020 11:21 am My discussion in the last 48 hours or so have been filled with people asking me about this outbreak. My first question back is to ask whether or not they received a flu vaccination, and so far it's 50/50 on y/n. There's definitely reason to watch what's happening, but in terms of real risk *right now*, you're more likely to be exposed to and suffer from the flu. Not as sexy or exciting, but it's the truth.

I was glad to see you already posted something as I saw this.

CNN wrote:There's another virus that has infected 15 million Americans across the country and killed more than 8,200 people this season alone. It's not a new pandemic -- it's influenza.
The 2019-2020 flu season is projected to be one of the worst in a decade, according to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. At least 140,000 people have been hospitalized with complications from the flu, and that number is predicted to climb as flu activity swirls.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:16 pm

Blackhawk wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:01 pm Shorter version, if it wiped out China, it would wipe out the rest of us, too.

It's not going to have a 100% fatality rate and not everyone will catch it. So it can't wipe out everyone .

Now if it kills enough people to shut down powerplants and food infrastructure, leave nuclear plants unstaffed, leave nations defenseless militarily...we'll do the rest.

I didn't mean it quite that literally. It was a response to Daehawk's idea of it wiping out China.

In the mean time, the hottest item here in California is those stupid face masks, especially in Chinese areas. Panicking people have bought them out everywhere, and even Amazon is low in quantity. Some places are charging outrageous shipping prices. It's really sad.

I work in a Home Depot in an area with lots of Chinese immigrants and we sold out of every face mask we have and we had a lot of overstock that was left after Hurricane Harvey.


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Dramatist wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:21 pm I work in a Home Depot in an area with lots of Chinese immigrants and we sold out of every face mask we have and we had a lot of overstock that was left after Hurricane Harvey.

I'm guessing those were dust masks, which don't do diddly for viruses.

As I understand it, the fatality rate is 2%. Nobody wants to break in a brand new disease, but It's not panic time.

I've read The Stand and if there's one thing I know about plagues wiping out humanity it's this: Until mysterious things start happening in your neck of the woods, it's no big deal. If, for instance, schools around here started shutting down 'temporarily' because 'parents want to keep their kids home for now', shiat just got real. If people I know in the medical profession become unreachable, or refuse to talk to me- shiat just got real.

Otherwise it's the same old/same old we've seen before.

If, for instance, schools around here started shutting down 'temporarily' because 'parents want to keep their kids home for now', shiat just got real.

TN: TN Schools
Boyd Buchanan: Closed Fri
Grundy Co Schools: Closed Fri; Closed Friday due to illness
Marion Co Schools: Closed Thu; Jan 31 and Feb 3 due to sickness

Daehawk wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2020 1:54 am

If, for instance, schools around here started shutting down 'temporarily' because 'parents want to keep their kids home for now', shiat just got real.

TN: TN Schools
Boyd Buchanan: Closed Fri
Grundy Co Schools: Closed Fri; Closed Friday due to illness
Marion Co Schools: Closed Thu; Jan 31 and Feb 3 due to sickness

When Tuesday rolls around and those schools are still closed then I think we'll have to write off Tennessee.

Kraken wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2020 7:42 pm

Dramatist wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:21 pm I work in a Home Depot in an area with lots of Chinese immigrants and we sold out of every face mask we have and we had a lot of overstock that was left after Hurricane Harvey.

I'm guessing those were dust masks, which don't do diddly for viruses.

As I understand it, the fatality rate is 2%. Nobody wants to break in a brand new disease, but It's not panic time.

Dust masks are still better than not wearing one, right?

Victoria Raverna wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2020 8:21 am
Dust masks are still better than not wearing one, right?

For keeping the virus out? No. From keeping you from touching your nose? Yes. So says the news as of 5 minutes ago.

Jeff V wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2020 9:21 am

Victoria Raverna wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2020 8:21 am
Dust masks are still better than not wearing one, right?

For keeping the virus out? No. From keeping you from touching your nose? Yes. So says the news as of 5 minutes ago.

They also protect from splatter. Virus can get through but droplets with virus often cannot.


I had to take the Blue Line yesterday and I'll admit seeming everyone coming from O'Hare with their luggage made me slightly uneasy.

Where are you seeing the 2% mortality number? Just for "fun" I ran the numbers and it looked more like 5-6%. (I am in no way a medical or mathematical professional, nor have I played one on the teevee)

Formix wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:14 am Where are you seeing the 2% mortality number? Just for "fun" I ran the numbers and it looked more like 5-6%. (I am in no way a medical or mathematical professional, nor have I played one on the teevee)

The math is pretty simple. This site tracks all reported cases. As of now, 9,776 cases, 213 deaths = 2.18%.

Got it. I ran the numbers a few days ago.

stessier wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:31 am

Formix wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:14 am Where are you seeing the 2% mortality number? Just for "fun" I ran the numbers and it looked more like 5-6%. (I am in no way a medical or mathematical professional, nor have I played one on the teevee)

The math is pretty simple. This site tracks all reported cases. As of now, 9,776 cases, 213 deaths = 2.18%.

Hm, if we take the numbers for the normal flu posted earlier ...

CNN wrote:There's another virus that has infected 15 million Americans across the country and killed more than 8,200 people this season alone. It's not a new pandemic -- it's influenza.
The 2019-2020 flu season is projected to be one of the worst in a decade, according to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. At least 140,000 people have been hospitalized with complications from the flu, and that number is predicted to climb as flu activity swirls.

... that would work out to 15 mil. cases, 8200 deaths = 0.055%. Did I make an error somewhere or is the mortality rate of the corona virus actually about 40 times that of the normal flu? That would actually be quite impressive.

From my personal stash:

Case Fatality Rates:
1918 Pandemic
2.5%

2003/06 Avian Influenza (205 people)
56%

2009/10 H1N1 Pandemic (~14,000 people)
0.03%

Seasonal Influenza (~250-500K)
< 0.1% each year

Wait. Did you just say that coronavirus has 1918 mortality rates?

Currently, but it's a matter of scale. Rates are always a function of deaths/identified cases and we're really only a month into this current outbreak. The 1918 influenza pandemic data is a historical snapshot, cobbled together from best-guess data at the time. Regardless, we really can't compare the two until this current outbreak is over. Based on what we're seeing, I would expect the case fatality rate to drop as we identify more people with the illness that ultimately fully recover and/or are completely asymptomatic.

A better reference point is the 2002/03 SARS outbreak and the reason is that we've reached the number of identified cases in a single month for this new coronavirus variant in comparison for the same number of identified SARS cases in 3 months. That would suggest we're better at identifying cases (likely) and/or it's spreading faster (anecdotally this seems to be true).

Outbreaks are moving targets and I'd be lying if I said I was confident in all the data we're seeing from China.

That's also why the infamous "R naught" is important. People I respect and trust are suggesting the current R naught value is around 2-3, meaning for each person infected, they're spreading it to two or three other people. Again, this is a moving target because we're getting more data daily. If that number holds, it will put this closer to SARS. For reference, measles is somewhere around 15 and influenza (seasonal) is somewhere around 1.5, IIRC.

Thanks Smoove.

It's so very rare I can chime in with stuff I know, so when I can, I do -- and I'm happy to be able to do so.

Hmmm. I've been following this closely and am growing more concerned about the Vegas trade show I'm scheduled to attend next week (2/5-2/7). The part of the show I'm most interested in is a sourcing pavilion where vendors from China show their goods. I wasn't all that concerned before, because nearly all of these vendors come from one of two coastal Chinese provinces, Fujian or Guangdong, both of which are like 600+ miles from Wuhan. But now I see that all of China is being impacted and Delta, United and American have all cancelled all upcoming flights to China.

I wonder if (1) any of these vendors will actually show up next week; and (2) if they do, whether I should be walking around talking to them and inspecting their goods.

Just bring masks and gloves, not that they are actually that useful. Doubt they will dare to travel in these times.

https://time.com/5774521/coronavirus-fa ... revention/

I apparently run in very different circles online as I hadn't seen a single one of these virus hoaxes, but I share for those that might be seeing them elsewhere. Courtesy of Buzzfeed.

Kurth wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2020 4:25 pmI wonder if (1) any of these vendors will actually show up next week; and (2) if they do, whether I should be walking around talking to them and inspecting their goods.

I can't speak specifically to this, but I am starting to see unofficial updated numbers from trusted sources. I fully expect there to be a dramatic increase in the amount of news focused on the outbreak as well as a possible increase in the amount of activity being reported worldwide (investigations, quarantine, planning, etc...)

Again, not unusual, but I think the amount of information coming is going to likely elevate panic.

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2020 4:54 pm I apparently run in very different circles online as I hadn't seen a single one of these virus hoaxes, but I share for those that might be seeing them elsewhere. Courtesy of Buzzfeed.

Missing 2 big ones:
The guy from Harvard (real arrest but not related)

The weaponized virus conspiracy

CNBC

The Trump administration on Friday declared the coronavirus a public health emergency in the United States, and announced that certain foreign nationals deemed to pose a risk of transmitting the disease will temporarily be denied entry [to] the U.S. Some returning American citizens potentially at risk will be quarantined.

In real life I'm seeing what I'd call pre-panic. People are not panicking but are waiting to see what happens. I think any kind of town or city quarantine in the US will trigger panic, since I've heard people mention something like that as being a sign it's out of control. I think news of any US hospital being overwhelmed by patients will also trigger panic. Otherwise people are just going about their business as usual. I'm not panicking but I have a decent stockpile of supplies. Not prepper level, but I won't starve in the first week either, assuming I'm not killed by Captain Trips.

Slightly more than a week of food? That's not pre-prepper, that's average shopping interval.

LawBeefaroni wrote:CNBC

The Trump administration on Friday declared the coronavirus a public health emergency in the United States, and announced that certain foreign nationals deemed to pose a risk of transmitting the disease will temporarily be denied entry [to] the U.S. Some returning American citizens potentially at risk will be quarantined.

Never let a crisis go to waste.

stessier wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2020 6:59 pm Slightly more than a week of food? That's not pre-prepper, that's average shopping interval.

No, that's in addition to my normal supply of food and water. So assuming civilization doesn't come to an end, I'll never need to touch the extra stash. Plus that's not counting rationing my supply. I don't actually need to eat that much, I just factored in wanting to be able to offer others food if needed. I'm in Southern California, high population density. If something happens that requires more than a couple of weeks of hanging in there, we're all screwed anyways.

gameoverman wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2020 7:13 pm

stessier wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2020 6:59 pm Slightly more than a week of food? That's not pre-prepper, that's average shopping interval.

No, that's in addition to my normal supply of food and water. So assuming civilization doesn't come to an end, I'll never need to touch the extra stash. Plus that's not counting rationing my supply. I don't actually need to eat that much, I just factored in wanting to be able to offer others food if needed. I'm in Southern California, high population density. If something happens that requires more than a couple of weeks of hanging in there, we're all screwed anyways.

Assuming clean water's available, we could probably live for a month on the stores in our pantry, if you count eating plain pasta and grains "living." The key would be realizing that you're in a rationing situation before you blow through those stores. Since our water is gravity-fed from towers, it ought to hold out for quite awhile assuming the neighbors stop spraying it on their lawns. If the apocalypse has the decency to arrive during gardening season we could last a lot longer.

But yeah, we kinda depend on civilization. No illusions to the contrary.

It's never the things you're worried about, always something unintended.

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/sta ... 1880658944

FDA inspections of medical product facilities located in China probably halted or greatly impacted by new guidance from State Department. Public health actors should consider this when contemplating new facilities and product supply. Will also create large backlog of inspections.

Report in the NEJM regarding the first case:

On January 19, 2020, a 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever. On checking into the clinic, the patient put on a mask in the waiting room. After waiting approximately 20 minutes, he was taken into an examination room and underwent evaluation by a provider. He disclosed that he had returned to Washington State on January 15 after traveling to visit family in Wuhan, China. The patient stated that he had seen a health alert from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) about the novel coronavirus outbreak in China and, because of his symptoms and recent travel, decided to see a health care provider.

Of note:

Stool obtained on illness day 7 was also positive for 2019-nCoV (Ct values, 36 to 38)

Wearing a mask isn't going to help you; wash your hands!

"Subjective fever"? What's that...you feel hot but your temp is normal? Don't make me google it!

Fancy way of saying he was complaining of being warm when he arrived, but no data was available to prove an actual fever.

One of my Great Uncles died in an army camp from the 1918 Spanish Influenza way back when.

China's claim confirmed? Virus can transmit to other during incubation period?

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468

Figure 1 shows the timeline.

If I understand correctly, Patient 3 dan 4 didn't have any contact with the Index Patient? So not only the Index Patient transmit it to Patient 1 before showing any symptom, Patient 1 also transmited the virus to Patient 3 and 4 on the same day or few days later after Patient 1 got the virus from Index Patient?