Super Bowl LI

[Apollo]

The problem is that NFL teams aren't always trying to score points or pile up yards. Some great offenses get a lead and then take the air out of the ball and use the defense to throttle the opponent. Other offenses have to air it out constantly because their defense is atrocious. Context matters. How do you objectively compare them?

He's provided all the information needed to prove to any reasonable observer that, yes, this is a top 10 offense . The Falcons pass the Stat test as well as the Eye test. And, yes, that means little in the Superbowl, especially against the Pats. But in the Superbowl the Pats are always in close games, so anything can happen.

[morlac]

The problem is that NFL teams aren't always trying to score points or pile up yards. Siome great offenses get a lead and then take the air out of the ball and use the defense to throttle the opponent. Other offenses have to air it out constantly because their defense is atrocious. Context matters. How do you objectively compare them?

Lamest excuse ever. I guess I can say they are the the best offense ever. You can't say they aren't then. You can't call anything the best or top ten with this redicolous reasoning. I mean they layed off the gas all year long in the 4th qtr so they could have put up over 50 numerous times.

[El Guapo]

The problem is that NFL teams aren't always trying to score points or pile up yards. Some great offenses get a lead and then take the air out of the ball and use the defense to throttle the opponent. Other offenses have to air it out constantly because their defense is atrocious. Context matters. How do you objectively compare them?

And what is an "offense" anyway? When you really think about it, aren't we all "offenses", in our own way?

[morlac]

I can't remember if he had to come from behind in their divisional win against the Seahawks the last year they made the nfc championship game, but if they didn't, then I think those numbers are also zero percent in the playoffs too.

Vs Seahawks 2012:
Got the ball with 31 seconds left and they went down the field and kicked a game winner but whatever. I'm sure Seattle made some boneheaded mistakes we took advantage of though.

[RunningMn9]

Let's try this a different way. Which offense is better, the 2011 New Orleans Saints or the 2007 New England Patriots? Were either better than the 1950 Los Angeles Rams? What about the 1955 Cleveland Browns?

How many offenses in NFL history have been as devastating to opposing defenses as the 1999 Rams? The 1990/91 Bills? How many have changed how offense was played in the NFL like the 1981 Chargers?

There is a 0% chance that this Falcons offense will be mentioned with any of those other offenses within 2 or 3 years. Any amount of perspective on NFL history would tell you that. It's a great, modern NFL offense. Which is great. It's not an epic, all-time offense. That's absurd.

[RunningMn9]

How do you factor in the impact of playing in a dome? As an example, as of 2014, there has been only one offense in the history of the NFL that has ranked 2nd both in points per game, and yards per game - the 2013 Denver Broncos. They averaged 10 yards less per game than the top offense in NFL history (in terms of yards per game), the 2011 Saints. But the 2011 Saints played 11 games inside. The 2013 Broncos played 1.

As a student of NFL history, I've concluded that any such statements of the nature of "my team is one of the best ever", uttered in the moment of watching it happen, is folly.

The Falcons had the best scoring offense in the NFL this year. And they have to play the best scoring defense in the NFL this year. Let's hope that's enough.

[RunningMn9]

The Pats played some of the worst scoring teams in the NFL.

Isn't that commonly the case? If you are playing the best scoring defense in the NFL, wouldn't it stand to reason that your scoring will be depressed, which will affect your rankings? Especially if you have to play them twice?

They only played 4 games against a team ranked in the top half in offensive scoring. Two of those were Buffalo who ranks 30th in passing yards.

Not sure why you had to put that qualifier in.

Scoring points is scoring points.

I'd have to do a lot more digging to try to evaluate how easy it is to lead the league in scoring defense (lowest ppg allowed), without being a very, very good defense. And then we have to consider the impact that the Pats offense has on helping their defense out (in terms of ball control and the way they pressure opposing teams as a whole).

The Falcons will score points. Can they win the game if they only score 21 points? 24 points? What do we think they will need to beat the Pats? What I know about the Patriots is that they know how to, and are capable of winning any kind of football game imaginable. It doesn't mean that they will win it, but they are prepared for everything. They cannot be put in a position where they panic or aren't built to play.

I don't know if that's true about the Falcons. We will find out.

[RunningMn9]

And I haven't even brought up the 49ers yet.

[morlac]

Let's try this a different way. Which offense is better, the 2011 New Orleans Saints or the 2007 New England Patriots? Were either better than the 1950 Los Angeles Rams? What about the 1955 Cleveland Browns?

How many offenses in NFL history have been as devastating to opposing defenses as the 1999 Rams? The 1990/91 Bills? How many have changed how offense was played in the NFL like the 1981 Chargers?

There is a 0% chance that this Falcons offense will be mentioned with any of those other offenses within 2 or 3 years. Any amount of perspective on NFL history would tell you that. It's a great, modern NFL offense. Which is great. It's not an epic, all-time offense. That's absurd.

Yawn.

0% chance? They already are being compare to best ever and will continue to be leading up to the game. Modern day offense?, the article I linked takes that into account but you can't even acknowledge it for some reason. If they had a Giants or a Bears on their jersey this wouldn't even be up for discussion. Falcons bias nonsense.

[Apollo]

Let's try this a different way. Which offense is better, the 2011 New Orleans Saints or the 2007 New England Patriots? Were either better than the 1950 Los Angeles Rams? What about the 1955 Cleveland Browns?

How many offenses in NFL history have been as devastating to opposing defenses as the 1999 Rams? The 1990/91 Bills? How many have changed how offense was played in the NFL like the 1981 Chargers?

There is a 0% chance that this Falcons offense will be mentioned with any of those other offenses within 2 or 3 years. Any amount of perspective on NFL history would tell you that. It's a great, modern NFL offense. Which is great. It's not an epic, all-time offense. That's absurd.

Yawn.

0% chance? They already are being compare to best ever and will continue to be leading up to the game. Modern day offense?, the article I linked takes that into account but you can't even acknowledge it for some reason. If they had a Giants or a Bears on their jersey this wouldn't even be up for discussion. Falcons bias nonsense.

He's just trolling. Apparently, when it comes time to discuss the NFL he's as reasonable as Pyperkub talking about the SEC or Rip talking about Obama. I guess everybody has their weakness...

[stessier]

And what is an "offense" anyway? When you really think about it, aren't we all "offenses", in our own way?

This and this.

He's just trolling. Apparently, when it comes time to discuss the NFL he's as reasonable as Pyperkub talking about the SEC or Rip talking about Obama. I guess everybody has their weakness...

[El Guapo]

Falcons bias nonsense.

I guarantee you that RM9 is not biased against the Falcons. I'm not sure that anyone is biased against the Falcons.

[Apollo]

Falcons bias nonsense.

I guarantee you that RM9 is not biased against the Falcons. I'm not sure that anyone is biased against the Falcons.

No, but he is endlessly splitting hairs on the definition of a great offense, which is not exactly a controversial topic. Furthermore, I clearly remember him strenuously denying Tom Brady's ability way back in the GG days. How did that work out?

[stessier]

I mean, he's no Rob Johnson, Alex van Pelt, Drew Bledsoe, JP Losman, Kelly Holcomb, Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Brohm, EJ Manuel, Thad Lewis, Jeff Tuel, Kyle Orton, Tyrod Taylor, or Matt Cassel...but I think he can hold his own.

[morlac]

How do you factor in the impact of playing in a dome? As an example, as of 2014, there has been only one offense in the history of the NFL that has ranked 2nd both in points per game, and yards per game - the 2013 Denver Broncos. They averaged 10 yards less per game than the top offense in NFL history (in terms of yards per game), the 2011 Saints. But the 2011 Saints played 11 games inside. The 2013 Broncos played 1.

As a student of NFL history, I've concluded that any such statements of the nature of "my team is one of the best ever", uttered in the moment of watching it happen, is folly.

The Falcons had the best scoring offense in the NFL this year. And they have to play the best scoring defense in the NFL this year. Let's hope that's enough.

Awesome Dome talk? Now we are really grassping. Was waiting for this one. Next will get the Matt Ryan has a noodle arm and the circle will be complete.


How'd that Dome work for Brock Osweileer? What about the Rams this year? Where's the Super Bowl being played?


Historic offense:

With a 38-32 win over New Orleans, Atlanta finished 2016 with 540 points – tied with the 2000 Rams for the seventh-most an NFL club has ever scored in a single season. That output is 71 points more than any other team accumulated this year and 176 points above the league average.

Week 17's triumph also marked the 11th time Atlanta had 30-plus points, the third-most ever in an NFL season, and its five 40-plus-point efforts rank second all-time.

More than anything else, the Falcons reached these heights because of their efficiency. They scored 3.23 points per drive, per Football Outsiders, and gained 6.69 yards per play – both tops in the league.

Matt Ryan, of course, led Atlanta to these historic numbers. In 16 games, the veteran QB finished with 4,944 yards – a new franchise record – 38 touchdowns and seven interceptions, good for league-bests in QB rating (117.1) and ESPN’s Total QBR (83.3).

Just how good is that overall stat line? It made Ryan one of three NFL players (along with Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers) to throw for 3,500-plus yards and 10 or fewer INTs in a season.

And, like the offense in general, Ryan was incredibly efficient: His 9.26 yards per attempt is the highest in NFL history for a 16-game season and any season with 350-plus attempts. For perspective: Rodgers earned a lower Y/A in 15 of 16 contests, and no one other than Ryan had a higher Y/A than 8.23 in 2016.

That rate was put together thanks to remarkable consistency, as Ryan set a new league record by notching at least 200 passing yards in 55 consecutive games, a streak that remains alive. His 12 games with a passer rating over 100 were the most in the NFL and tied with Brady (2007, 2010) and Steve Young (1994) for the second-most all-time. Only Rodgers (13 in 2011) has had more in a year.

Additionally, Ryan tallied 7.91 Y/A or more during all 16 matchups in 2016. Kurt Warner (2001) previously held the record with at least 6.87 Y/A in every regular season game. He won his second MVP award following that campaign and, after learning about this fact, said Ryan should receive the same honor.

In the postseason, Ryan has served notice that he is not only a top-10 quarterback, but someone who should be mentioned as a VIP at the position. En route to Super Bowl LI, Ryan completed over 70 percent of his postseason passes while posting 365.0 passing yards per game and a 7:0 TD-to-INT ratio. Most importantly, he's notched a 132.6 passer rating while helping the Falcons average 40.0 points in the playoffs -- the third-highest playoff scoring average in the Super Bowl era (only the 1994 and 1989 San Francisco 49ers averaged more, with 43.7 and 42.0 points, respectively.

Falcons offense has been held under 360 yards twice this year. In one of those two games, they scored 42 points. Good luck stopping them.

During the regular season, Ryan threw touchdown passes to 13 different receivers. Falcons runners combined for 20 touchdowns on the ground. Shanahan has struck a balance that we haven’t seen in the NFL in a very long time. You have to go back to the Rams’ “Greatest Show on Turf” teams to find an offense this dynamic.


Historic offense!
Context: this was against the 1st- 2nd (depending which advanced metric stat you want to use)toughest schedule in the NFL with 6 top ten rated defenses. So contextually they are even better than they appear! You call them the best 'Modern Day' offense if it makes you feel better.

[morlac]

Falcons bias nonsense.

I guarantee you that RM9 is not biased against the Falcons. I'm not sure that anyone is biased against the Falcons.

I get that. He's trolling to try and piss on my parade but as a Falcon fan I always bring a poncho


If you followed the Falcons you would disagree with this. National media has been dissing them all year and making excuses but look where they are now.

[ImLawBoy]

Falcons bias nonsense.

I guarantee you that RM9 is not biased against the Falcons. I'm not sure that anyone is biased against the Falcons.

If you followed the Falcons you would disagree with this. National media has been dissing them all year and making excuses but look where they are now.

I tend to side with you generally on this, as you've backed up your point much better than RM9 has overall, but all fanbases believe the national media are biased against them.

[morlac]

Falcons bias nonsense.

I guarantee you that RM9 is not biased against the Falcons. I'm not sure that anyone is biased against the Falcons.

If you followed the Falcons you would disagree with this. National media has been dissing them all year and making excuses but look where they are now.

I tend to side with you generally on this, as you've backed up your point much better than RM9 has overall, but all fanbases believe the national media are biased against them.

Agreed but qualify with: Underdogs or come from nowhere teams like most think the Falcons are will always be fighting an uphill battle for respect against well established NFL powerhouses in the national media. Go look at he build up to playing Greenbay and their football 'God' Aaron Rodgers. It was obnoxious. I do certainly have a chip on my shoulder though and am admittedly rabid so the media can suck it!

[El Guapo]

Falcons bias nonsense.

I guarantee you that RM9 is not biased against the Falcons. I'm not sure that anyone is biased against the Falcons.

No, but he is endlessly splitting hairs on the definition of a great offense, which is not exactly a controversial topic. Furthermore, I clearly remember him strenuously denying Tom Brady's ability way back in the GG days. How did that work out?

I mean, RM9 endlessly splits hairs on everything.

[El Guapo]

Falcons bias nonsense.

I guarantee you that RM9 is not biased against the Falcons. I'm not sure that anyone is biased against the Falcons.

If you followed the Falcons you would disagree with this. National media has been dissing them all year and making excuses but look where they are now.

I tend to side with you generally on this, as you've backed up your point much better than RM9 has overall, but all fanbases believe the national media are biased against them.

Agreed but qualify with: Underdogs or come from nowhere teams like most think the Falcons are will always be fighting an uphill battle for respect against well established NFL powerhouses in the national media. Go look at he build up to playing Greenbay and their football 'God' Aaron Rodgers. It was obnoxious. I do certainly have a chip on my shoulder though and am admittedly rabid so the media can suck it!

The media endlessly gushes over stars and "national" teams (Patriots, Cowboys, Giants), but that's not particular to the Falcons. If the Falcons win 2 or 3 Super Bowls over the next five or so years (for example), the Falcons and Ryan will get pretty much the same media treatment that the Patriots get.

[morlac]

Agreed El Guapo, I am looking forward to it

[Jeff V]

If the Falcons win 2 or 3 Super Bowls over the next five or so years (for example), the Falcons and Ryan will get pretty much the same media treatment that the Patriots get.

And then RM9 might even concede that they are perhaps worthy of being mentioned in the same article with those epic Bills teams that won went to all those Superbowls when the 37th-leading QB (by career rating) of all time was in charge of their offensive powerhouse. Matt Ryan (11th on the list according to Wikipedia) will finally get his due!

[RunningMn9]

And then RM9 might even concede that they are perhaps worthy of being mentioned in the same article with those epic Bills teams that won went to all those Superbowls when the 37th-leading QB (by career rating) of all time was in charge of their offensive powerhouse. Matt Ryan (11th on the list according to Wikipedia) will finally get his due!

I wouldn't list any of the Bills offenses as an epic all-time offense either. But I'd put them above this Falcons offense for the same reason I'd put the Air Coryell offense of the 1981 Chargers, or the Bill Walsh's West Coast offenses, or the Patriots Spread offense, or the Manning Colts/Broncos offense above them. Those offenses changed how defense had to be played in the NFL and had longevity.

This Falcons offense isn't going to change how defense has to be played in the NFL. It's ok to disagree. And I'm not trolling morlac and his sensitive Falcon fan feelings. I just found his claim regarding their place in history and Ryan in particular to be comical (even while agreeing with him that I wouldn't exactly be concerned with them falling apart if the Pats jump out to a lead). I disagree with his hyperbole, not the objection he was lodging.

And my attacks on Tom Brady had to do with dumb Patriot fans not understanding why their team won the SB in 01, 02 and 04. I have long since regarded Brady as one of the best to ever play the game at any position (I don't bother ranking them or identifying a "best" anymore because the notion is too subjective).

This like the time that everyone tried to tell me that Kurt Warner was a first ballot Hall of Famer because of his numbers. Context matters. Which is why he's still not in the HoF. Although I suspect that this is his year.

Maybe we can institute a new rule where you can't claim that your team is one of the best in NFL until a few years have passed so we have some perspective.

[stessier]

Your argument is talking past his argument.

The Falcons defense is statistically the 7th (or whatever) best based on the statistics provided. You can disagree with the metric (which would be foolish of you), but not the result of the comparison to said metric.

And the Pats won 01, 03, and 04..because Brady did his job.

[Jeff V]

I don't see how you would ever have a definitive, objective determination of this sort of thing. The best you can do is rely on stats, but with the NFL in particular, stats don't really tell the whole story -- more so than other sports. For this reason, I don't think you can immediately say they don't belong in the conversation -- statistics at least can help determine whether a player or team should be in a particular conversation.

Perhaps some day a computer model will be created that can adjust for things such as player size and athletic ability and provide "all things being equal" outcomes that give us a definitive ranking of all of the teams. Of course, people would still argue about the criteria used in such a model. Requiring that the Falcons win 2-3 Super Bowls before admitting they might have a pretty good offense isn't right either: the '85 Bears went to one SB with what was regarded as one of the finest defenses ever. The NFL is very much a season-by-season league - players move to other teams, injuries can often be crucial. A few key players can create Patriots-like continuity and longevity, but this isn't the norm. If the 2017 Falcons crash and burn, it takes nothing away anything they might have accomplished during the 2016 season.

[morlac]

Never has the term moving the goal post been more apt.

Longevity?
They all played 16 games in the regular season. We are talking about the 2016 Falcons still right?

Had to change the way defense played?
Doesn't a team have to figure out how to stop said offenses before they can change the way defenses play said offense?


Perspective?
Now we need a to wait a few years to judge their greatness? Why to compare it to offenses that come along after it? But you said you can't do that?


My feelings arn't sensitive I just a have low tolerance for stupidity.

[RunningMn9]

I just a have low tolerance for stupidity.

Me too, that's how we got here.

[Smoove_B]

[morlac]

I just a have low tolerance for stupidity.

Me too, that's how we got here.

Haha. I lol for real. Good stuff.

[RunningMn9]

I don't see how you would ever have a definitive, objective determination of this sort of thing. The best you can do is rely on stats, but with the NFL in particular, stats don't really tell the whole story -- more so than other sports. For this reason, I don't think you can immediately say they don't belong in the conversation -- statistics at least can help determine whether a player or team should be in a particular conversation.

This is a good explanation from where I'm coming from, except I would say "I don't think you can immediately say they do belong in the conversation".

[Jeff V]

I don't see how you would ever have a definitive, objective determination of this sort of thing. The best you can do is rely on stats, but with the NFL in particular, stats don't really tell the whole story -- more so than other sports. For this reason, I don't think you can immediately say they don't belong in the conversation -- statistics at least can help determine whether a player or team should be in a particular conversation.

This is a good explanation from where I'm coming from, except I would say "I don't think you can immediately say they do belong in the conversation".

If the Falcons dominate NE next week, I think they do simply on the basis of an explosive post-season. I'd be willing to reconsider after an analysis of why and why not they might be deserving, but it would be a discussion worth having (in so far as any discussion of this sort among sports fans is worth having -- then again, sports radio would not exist without it).

FTR, I have no particular opinion of this Falcon's team; only that they seem to be peaking at a convenient time. I haven't watched any of their games this year, and the one player who may have spurred my interest in the team (Mohammed Sanu) did not amass enough Fantasy success to elevate him to a starter except for bye weeks, where he performed quite underwhelmingly each time.

[RunningMn9]

I think my opinion of them is set regardless of the outcome of the game. Their offense is good enough to pancake a team in one game. Their offense is still really, really good, even if the BB figures out a way to throttle it. One game doesn't sway me either way.

I guess at the moment, I generally consider them in the same way that I always consider the top producing offense in a given year. For me to consider them to be all-time, there has to be something really special about it. I'm on the fence with how much I consider their incredible depth to be really special or not.

But at this point, I don't think of them any differently than I did the Panthers last year. Scoring 40 more points over a season doesn't make me think "ZOMG, this is an all-time best offense".

When I think "all-time best offense", so many other teams and years come to mind.

[Jeff V]

When I think "all-time best offense", so many other teams and years come to mind.

One good yardstick is the number of HoF players produced. Obviously, this is something that will take many years to pan out.

[gameoverman]

The reason I wouldn't gush so much over this Falcons offense is if you look at the season, they have a lot of average efforts in many games. Especially take a look before their bye week, there's a 15 point game, and four of those ten games had them scoring 24 points or less. Hardly what you'd expect to see from a monster offense. The way I see it, they're a very good offense compared to this year's NFL teams. In addition, they are peaking at the right time, which also tends to make a team look better than it is. Look at their post-bye week scores, it's like a different team. If their performance was on that level the entire season then yeah, they'd be one of the top offenses ever.

[Pyperkub]

I can't remember if he had to come from behind in their divisional win against the Seahawks the last year they made the nfc championship game, but if they didn't, then I think those numbers are also zero percent in the playoffs too.

Vs Seahawks 2012:
Got the ball with 31 seconds left and they went down the field and kicked a game winner but whatever. I'm sure Seattle made some boneheaded mistakes we took advantage of though.

Thanks, couldn't remember.

[morlac]

I think my opinion of them is set regardless of the outcome of the game. Their offense is good enough to pancake a team in one game. Their offense is still really, really good, even if the BB figures out a way to throttle it. One game doesn't sway me either way.

I guess at the moment, I generally consider them in the same way that I always consider the top producing offense in a given year. For me to consider them to be all-time, there has to be something really special about it. I'm on the fence with how much I consider their incredible depth to be really special or not.

But at this point, I don't think of them any differently than I did the Panthers last year. Scoring 40 more points over a season doesn't make me think "ZOMG, this is an all-time best offense".

When I think "all-time best offense", so many other teams and years come to mind.

I was feeling you right up until the end there when you compared them to the Panthers team last year. You said I couldnt do that to prove how good they are. You can't do the same to prove how meh they are. Besideso I need know reminders on how paper tiger the Panthers wereat year. The lowly Falcons with a worse defense held them to 16 pts and 287 total yards in week 16. That prompted the best Matt Ryan sound bite ever.

[morlac]

The reason I wouldn't gush so much over this Falcons offense is if you look at the season, they have a lot of average efforts in many games. Especially take a look before their bye week, there's a 15 point game, and four of those ten games had them scoring 24 points or less. Hardly what you'd expect to see from a monster offense. The way I see it, they're a very good offense compared to this year's NFL teams. In addition, they are peaking at the right time, which also tends to make a team look better than it is. Look at their post-bye week scores, it's like a different team. If their performance was on that level the entire season then yeah, they'd be one of the top offenses ever.

LOL. You don't watch many falcons games do you? You can't be serious, right?

[El Guapo]

The reason I wouldn't gush so much over this Falcons offense is if you look at the season, they have a lot of average efforts in many games. Especially take a look before their bye week, there's a 15 point game, and four of those ten games had them scoring 24 points or less. Hardly what you'd expect to see from a monster offense. The way I see it, they're a very good offense compared to this year's NFL teams. In addition, they are peaking at the right time, which also tends to make a team look better than it is. Look at their post-bye week scores, it's like a different team. If their performance was on that level the entire season then yeah, they'd be one of the top offenses ever.

LOL. You don't watch many falcons games do you? You can't be serious, right?

Gameoverman and I were pm'ing about how we needed to take the Falcons down a bit, because we hate them and their fans so much.

[RunningMn9]

LOL. You don't watch many falcons games do you? You can't be serious, right?

I'm starting to suspect that you only watch falcons games.

[morlac]

The reason I wouldn't gush so much over this Falcons offense is if you look at the season, they have a lot of average efforts in many games. Especially take a look before their bye week, there's a 15 point game, and four of those ten games had them scoring 24 points or less. Hardly what you'd expect to see from a monster offense. The way I see it, they're a very good offense compared to this year's NFL teams. In addition, they are peaking at the right time, which also tends to make a team look better than it is. Look at their post-bye week scores, it's like a different team. If their performance was on that level the entire season then yeah, they'd be one of the top offenses ever.

LOL. You don't watch many falcons games do you? You can't be serious, right?

Gameoverman and I were pm'ing about how we needed to take the Falcons down a bit, because we hate them and their fans so much.

hehe bastards! Touche'... Finally we are good enough to Hate! I want to hug both of you!