Octopus Overlords

Posted: **Tue Sep 01, 2020 12:22 pm**

Octavious wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 10:45 am The poll numbers this week aren't helping my feels either though. Emerson has Biden up by just two points now. I expect his numbers to jump a bit from the convention, but I don't feel super great about the chances right now.

USC Dornsife has Biden +10 today. 538 average right now is Biden +7.1

Point is - don't freak out (and conversely, don't get excited about) any one poll. Trump's polling has improved somewhat over the past few days (consistently with a small-ish convention bump, FWIW), which obviously is concerning, but it's not full on panic time.

Posted: **Tue Sep 01, 2020 12:32 pm**

Dont pay attention to any polls. Go out and vote! Some folks will stay home thinking "Oh he's got this"..NO! Go vote!

Posted: **Tue Sep 01, 2020 12:55 pm**

As I say when my sports team is up by only a few points. "I'd still rather be in this position than in their position."

Posted: **Tue Sep 01, 2020 1:04 pm**

I'm a Mets fan so I don't get that analogy.

Posted: **Tue Sep 01, 2020 1:57 pm**

El Guapo wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 12:22 pmPoint is - don't freak out (and conversely, don't get excited about) any one poll. Trump's polling has improved somewhat over the past few days (consistently with a small-ish convention bump, FWIW), which obviously is concerning, but it's not full on panic time.

This. Trump is very much behind the 8-Ball. Biden has the widest base I've ever seen. Trump has the narrowest.

Posted: **Tue Sep 01, 2020 2:10 pm**

Little Raven wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 1:57 pm
El Guapo wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 12:22 pmPoint is - don't freak out (and conversely, don't get excited about) any one poll. Trump's polling has improved somewhat over the past few days (consistently with a small-ish convention bump, FWIW), which obviously is concerning, but it's not full on panic time.
This. Trump is very much behind the 8-Ball. Biden has the widest base I've ever seen. Trump has the narrowest.

I'd almost feel more comfortable with a narrower Biden margin or even even-odds. Desperation drives men to desperate deeds. Cornered dogs are even worse.

Posted: **Tue Sep 01, 2020 2:45 pm**

Also ignoring the standard "head to head" and national polls, Trump is down in nearly every demographic that carried him in 2016. He hasn't been able to increase his popularity among any demographics, so his only chance is to either have higher Republican turnout, lower Democratic turnout, or realistically, some combination of both.

I'm still hoping Democratic motivation is going to be high enough to blunt most of his attempts at voter suppression. It's really the only thing we can count on at this point - anything less invites at best a close race which he will dispute, or God forbid, a second term.

Posted: **Tue Sep 01, 2020 2:50 pm**

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Little Raven wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 1:57 pm
El Guapo wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 12:22 pmPoint is - don't freak out (and conversely, don't get excited about) any one poll. Trump's polling has improved somewhat over the past few days (consistently with a small-ish convention bump, FWIW), which obviously is concerning, but it's not full on panic time.
This. Trump is very much behind the 8-Ball. Biden has the widest base I've ever seen. Trump has the narrowest.
I'd almost feel more comfortable with a narrower Biden margin or even even-odds. Desperation drives men to desperate deeds. Cornered dogs are even worse.

I think Trump would still be in cornered orange rat mode if it was closer or even. From what I’ve seen he must not only win at all costs, but win bigly, and decimate any opponent.

‘Close’ or ‘even’ probably equal ‘huge loss’ in his brain.

“If you’re not first, you’re last” as it were. I miss the days when I could laugh at that phrase as ridiculous.

Posted: **Tue Sep 01, 2020 2:56 pm**

Also, this is an election that could -really- use a landslide victory, not anything close. So, there is also that haunting concern.

Posted: **Tue Sep 01, 2020 3:06 pm**

YellowKing wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 2:45 pm
I'm still hoping Democratic motivation is going to be high enough to blunt most of his attempts at voter suppression. It's really the only thing we can count on at this point - anything less invites at best a close race which he will dispute, or God forbid, a second term.

This is why Trump needs to draw up a boogey man for his voters to direct there fear at. This is why Biden is such a good choice as an opponent (IMO). And I also feel that the people compelled to vote against Trump are doing it for much more motivating reasons than those that like stickin it to the libs... so -hopefully- that results in stronger turn-out.

There have just got to be:
Some old Trump voters that, at the very least will not vote for him again.
Some old 'no votes', that didn't like either Trump nor Hilary - now see that Trump is far worse than they ever imagined either would possibly be...

And I can't imagine the opposite exists:
Some old Dem voters, that no longer feel like they should vote Dem.
Some old 'no votes', that didn't like either Trump nor Hilary - but now like Trump and are willing to support him.

That just HAS to make a difference.

Posted: **Tue Sep 01, 2020 3:07 pm**

I don't see a landslide either way. I hope I'm wrong and this truly is a mandate on the last 4 and therefore the last 10+ years, wherein we collectively say this shit has got to stop now and stay stopped. From where I'm at [Rip]It's too early for polls[/Rip] and that just feels wrong in September and ten times magnified with this administration and the Senate that empowers it. I have an understanding of the political world within my view the same way I have an understanding of the record high stock market.

Posted: **Tue Sep 01, 2020 3:19 pm**

Unagi wrote:And I also feel that the people compelled to vote against Trump are doing it for much more motivating reasons than those that like stickin it to the libs... .

I consider fear and self-preservation as two of the highest motivators known to man.

Posted: **Tue Sep 01, 2020 3:21 pm**

Carpet_pissr wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 3:19 pm
Unagi wrote:And I also feel that the people compelled to vote against Trump are doing it for much more motivating reasons than those that like stickin it to the libs... .
I consider fear and self-preservation as two of the highest motivators known to man.

and I think that's what is motivating the dems, not the 'trump base'.

Posted: **Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:12 pm**

YellowKing wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 2:45 pm Also ignoring the standard "head to head" and national polls, Trump is down in nearly every demographic that carried him in 2016. He hasn't been able to increase his popularity among any demographics, so his only chance is to either have higher Republican turnout, lower Democratic turnout, or realistically, some combination of both.

I'm still hoping Democratic motivation is going to be high enough to blunt most of his attempts at voter suppression. It's really the only thing we can count on at this point - anything less invites at best a close race which he will dispute, or God forbid, a second term.

Here is the trouble. The ball is not under any of the cups. The prize is not behind any of the doors. The only way to win is not to play. And I believe that is Trumps strategy. We are here wondering if we will have enough votes to defeat him, while his strategy is to make sure that the votes are irrelevant. Biden is trying to win the election, while Trump is trying to rig it. Its not an equivalent contest.

Posted: **Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:18 pm**

Jaymon wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:12 pmBiden is trying to win the election, while Trump is trying to rig it.

Good luck with THAT.

This is going to be the most observed election in history. Billions of dollars are going to go into monitoring every possible angle. Even the slightest whiff of impropriety is going to bring an army of lawyers from both sides. If cheating is his best bet, he's in huge, HUGE trouble.

Posted: **Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:20 pm**

Little Raven wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:18 pm
Jaymon wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:12 pmBiden is trying to win the election, while Trump is trying to rig it.
Good luck with THAT.

This is going to be the most observed election in history. Billions of dollars are going to go into monitoring every possible angle. Even the slightest whiff of impropriety is going to bring an army of lawyers from both sides. If cheating is his best bet, he's in huge, HUGE trouble.

This is the most watched administration in history, armies of lawyers on both sides, and he is getting away with cheating every day.

Posted: **Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:22 pm**

Little Raven wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:18 pm
Jaymon wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:12 pmBiden is trying to win the election, while Trump is trying to rig it.
Good luck with THAT.

This is going to be the most observed election in history. Billions of dollars are going to go into monitoring every possible angle. Even the slightest whiff of impropriety is going to bring an army of lawyers from both sides. If cheating is his best bet, he's in huge, HUGE trouble.

None of which will matter to the second-term incumbent who controls the Justice Department.

Posted: **Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:34 pm**

Well, we've certainly had elections that people felt were illegitimate before. I don't honestly know where you go if you decide the electoral system has been compromised beyond the ability of the legal system to ability to deal with it. I can only think of one option, and it's.....extreme.

Posted: **Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:49 pm**

Unagi wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 3:21 pm
Carpet_pissr wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 3:19 pm
Unagi wrote:And I also feel that the people compelled to vote against Trump are doing it for much more motivating reasons than those that like stickin it to the libs... .
I consider fear and self-preservation as two of the highest motivators known to man.
and I think that's what is motivating the dems, not the 'trump base'.

Agree to disagree then I guess. Trump and Fox together have been instilling fear for years. They are VERY good at it. I don't get a message of fear and greed from the Biden camp (unless you consider "fear another term of Agolf Tweetler" I guess).

But the Trump team is stoking fear on so many levels, it's almost absurd- I mean it's practically their entire platform! Fear of urban violence spreading, fear of blacks or browns moving into suburban women's gated suburban paradises, fear of guns being taken away, fear that taxes will be raised, fear of vote tampering, etc. And I think I can look at the two camps objectively enough to state that Team Trump, by far, is fear-mongering more than anything on the other side.

Posted: **Tue Sep 01, 2020 5:07 pm**

I’m probably projecting.

I’m sincerely terrified for the future existence of the country that I felt I lived in for the last half century.

There is nothing that would stop me from voting and I think this may the most critical vote, perhaps (hopefully) in my entire life.

And while I know we Can find plenty of examples of enthusiastic Trump supporters, I think a lot of them just hardly give a shit about anything.

But yes, the ‘take you guns!’ Boogeyman works pretty good on ‘them’.

Posted: **Tue Sep 01, 2020 5:08 pm**

The bigger problem is that an ex-President Trump will have all the rage, give all the blame, and unfairly criticize constantly. Unless Trump dies or goes to jail, he’s going to continue to tear down America.

It’s a lose-loss for Anerica. Trump really is the perfect patsy for Putin.

Posted: **Tue Sep 01, 2020 5:18 pm**

On a happier note:

During the 2016 presidential campaign, then-candidate Donald Trump refused to promise to accept the results of the election. Likewise, in 2020, his continued assault on the reliability and legitimacy of mail-in voting has laid the groundwork for challenging a loss on the basis of voter fraud. He has also refused to promise to observe the 2020 results.

This has led some to worry that a contested election would severely undermine faith in American democracy.

Yet the United States has a long history of such contested elections. With one exception, they have not badly damaged the American political system.

That contested 1860 election – which sparked the Civil War – happened in a unique context. As a political scientist who studies elections, I believe that, should President Trump – or less likely, Joe Biden – contest the results of the November election, American democracy will survive.

...

History suggests, then, that even if Trump or Biden contest the election, the results would not be catastrophic.

The Constitution is clear on what would happen: First, the president cannot simply declare an election invalid. Second, voting irregularities could be investigated by the states, who are responsible for managing the integrity of their electoral processes. This seems unlikely to change any reported results, as voter fraud is extraordinarily rare.

The next step could be an appeal to the Supreme Court or suits against the states. To overturn any state’s initial selection, evidence of a miscount or voter fraud would have to be strongly established.

If these attempts to contest the election fail, on Inauguration Day, the elected president would lawfully assume the office. Any remaining ongoing contestation would be moot after this point, as the president would have full legal authority to exercise the powers of his office, and could not be removed short of impeachment.

While the result of the 2020 election is sure to make many citizens unhappy, I believe rule of law will endure. The powerful historical, social, and geographic forces that produced the total failure of 1860 simply are not present.

Posted: **Tue Sep 01, 2020 5:23 pm**

Zarathud wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 5:08 pm The bigger problem is that an ex-President Trump will have all the rage, give all the blame, and unfairly criticize constantly. Unless Trump dies or goes to jail, he’s going to continue to tear down America.

It’s a lose-loss for Anerica. Trump really is the perfect patsy for Putin.

This is getting a bit extreme maybe, but I have more than once thought there is likely a parallel between the joy and surprise bin Laden felt when the Two Towers fell on 9/11 and the joy and surprise Putin is feeling now at the complete chaos that he has sown (not saying without Putin we wouldn't be here, but he is actively stoking the existing chaos and taking advantage of underlying issues in our country).

Surprise on both parts because their plans have likely (definitely in the case of OBL, since we have record of that) succeeded beyond anything they hoped for.

Posted: **Tue Sep 01, 2020 6:36 pm**

The rule of law may prevail, but Trump is going to shit-post on Twitter as long as his tiny hands move.

Posted: **Tue Sep 01, 2020 8:08 pm**

Pretty sure you can’t Tweet from jail.

Posted: **Tue Sep 01, 2020 9:12 pm**

I really couldn't care less what he says if he isn't in charge.

Posted: **Tue Sep 01, 2020 9:27 pm**

Octavious wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 9:12 pmI really couldn't care less what he says if he isn't in charge.

Posted: **Tue Sep 01, 2020 10:04 pm**

Octavious wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 9:12 pm I really couldn't care less what he says if he isn't in charge.

Not in charge would be great but he can do a lot of harm from the sidelines. Especially if he pulls some President-in-exile from the deep state bullshit.

Posted: **Tue Sep 01, 2020 10:33 pm**

I read about a nightmare scenario tonight, and after reading it realized this has probably been Trump's plan all along.

The nightmare scenario is that early election results look like a Trump electoral landslide due to the record number of mail-in ballots (heavily Democratic) yet to be counted. The media does little to dispel the notion. Trump declares victory. A week or two later, it's clear that Biden has won, but Trump calls foul. That in and of itself is not enough to overturn the election, but it does allow the GOP to campaign for four years on "the left stole the Presidency" and further reinforce their conspiracy theories about voter fraud.

Yeah, there's no way this isn't a disaster.

Alexander Cohen wrote:While the result of the 2020 election is sure to make many citizens unhappy, I believe rule of law will endure.

I've been thinking the rule of law will endure since 2016. I'm still waiting.

Posted: **Tue Sep 01, 2020 10:37 pm**

Neither side will accept defeat graciously, or trust an adversarial result.

Posted: **Wed Sep 02, 2020 1:07 am**

YellowKing wrote:I read about a nightmare scenario tonight, and after reading it realized this has probably been Trump's plan all along.

The nightmare scenario is that early election results look like a Trump electoral landslide due to the record number of mail-in ballots (heavily Democratic) yet to be counted. The media does little to dispel the notion. Trump declares victory. A week or two later, it's clear that Biden has won, but Trump calls foul. That in and of itself is not enough to overturn the election, but it does allow the GOP to campaign for four years on "the left stole the Presidency" and further reinforce their conspiracy theories about voter fraud.

Yeah, there's no way this isn't a disaster.

Alexander Cohen wrote:While the result of the 2020 election is sure to make many citizens unhappy, I believe rule of law will endure.
I've been thinking the rule of law will endure since 2016. I'm still waiting.

I’m not sure how likely that is. The state election officials and the media will have an idea of how many uncounted ballots are out there, and whether or not there’s enough of them to sway the election.

So while Trump will almost certainly declare victory on election night using any evidence he can find, the media is likely not going to have any of it. And the states won’t certify it until the ballots are counted (which is where the real shenanigans will take place).

Posted: **Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:48 am**

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 5309245440

Posted: **Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:51 am**

I trust you not, Nate Silver, sorry.

Posted: **Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:57 am**

I hope trump wins

Posted: **Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:57 am**

Some good news for today. Last month Biden raised a record $300 million in campaign contributions! The previous record was "only" $193 million by Obama in 2008. And the majority of it was in small contributions.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/01/us/p ... ction.html

In other news, Biden has made a huge $43 million ad buy in the battleground states for ads that emphasize his call for peaceful protest and condemning looting/violence. This should help blunt Trump's allegations against him in this area.

Posted: **Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:58 am**

Milogostplayer wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:57 am I hope trump wins

Great first post on your first day!

Posted: **Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:22 am**

I was one of those small contributions to the Biden (and Jaime Harrison) campaign! My reward so far: spam emails and the occasional spam text.

Posted: **Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:07 am**

Ralph-Wiggum wrote:Jaime Harrison) horse:

? You in SC now? Kudos and thanks in either case. I wish he had more of a chance.

Posted: **Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:09 am**

Grifman wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:58 am
Milogostplayer wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:57 am I hope trump wins
Great first post on your first day!

(Moderator: please move to the Card Games forum.)

Posted: **Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:11 am**

Grifman wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:57 am
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/01/us/p ... ction.html

I don't get this part:

The sum would shatter past monthly records as small donors have poured money into Mr. Biden’s coffers, especially since the selection of Senator Kamala Harris as his running mate, and big contributors, from Silicon Valley to Wall Street, have given checks that can be as large as $721,300.

But individuals can only contribute $2700 (or $5400 if including the primary). Is this some sort of bundled donation thing of a bunch of contributors?

Octopus Overlords

Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

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