O, the weather outside is...

[Kraken]

Tomorrow I'm abandoning my 17-year-old Weber gas grill that's sat on the patio the whole time, and that last saw duty just a couple of days ago. It still works but a hole has rusted through the firebox, so I'm not moving it. I bought a new Weber on sale last spring and it's been sitting in my garage

I also bought a new Weber Spirit to replace my previous one. I have long been a Weber fan, and I suppose I must still be since I ultimately just bought a new one, but I don't think they last like they used to. My last Genesis had 2 sticky/non-functional valves in just a few years despite me religiously covering it when not in use. My previous Spirit I bought to replace it lasted longer than that. On the other hand, this year my brother finally replaced a Weber Genesis that lasted him over 20 years. Don't think they make them that well nowadays.

One consolation of being old is that the new Genesis doesn’t need to last 17 years to outlive me.

I did have to replace some parts on the old grill over the years, but Weber is one of two brands that earned my loyalty. The other being La-Z-Boy.

[jztemple2]

I did have to replace some parts on the old grill over the years, but Weber is one of two brands that earned my loyalty. The other being La-Z-Boy.

Ah, La-Z-Boy. We have four of them . Three are reasonably new, but the one in my office/library has little spiders that live in it. I'm getting used to them running across my skin and ticking my hairs when I suddenly sit down and surprise them

We are in the process of recovering from the damage caused by Hurricane Milton. Last week we had a visit from the designer of the company that is (hopefully) going to replace the covered porch that got blow away plus all the torn screening. You don't even want to know the estimate

We're still trying to get a response from the company that put in my pool solar heating panels, but as it turns out, the priority now isn't to get them to fix the two damaged panels, it's to remove the panels and all the piping. That's because today we contracted to get the roof replaced . Milton tore off a lot of the shingle tabs, not surprising since the roof is 25 years old. It is still structurally sound. We had been talking about replacing it and had a roofer come over to inspect and prepare an estimate...

We (the wife and I) had been thinking about doing the roof in January, after un-decorating. Then today she says she'd like to get it done in early December before the decorations go up. The roofer came by this afternoon with the estimate which was quite reasonable, as replacing roofs go. After we did a lot of talking and were winding things up, he say how he and his crew have nothing happening right now and if we would contract to start next week he'll give us a little price break. So now in less than a week, unless something comes up, we will be having the roof replaced. This is so odd to me because the usual Florida experience is that it takes weeks to get a roofer lined up. We are hopeful everything will turn out OK

[Punisher]

Ah, La-Z-Boy. We have four of them . Three are reasonably new, but the one in my office/library has little spiders that live in it. I'm getting used to them running across my skin and ticking my hairs when I suddenly sit down and surprise them

We are in the process of recovering from the damage caused by Hurricane Milton.

You obviously missed the perfect opportunity to burn down your house.

[LordMortis]

One consolation of being old is that the new Genesis doesn’t need to last 17 years to outlive me.

That is now a consideration is my purchases. It's not a comforting feeling, except for when it comes to the really really really expensive stuff. "Can I get 20 years out of that? Will I need that in 20 years if I am still around?" Previous to that, durable goods were always "What is my cost over time before the cost of maintenance costs or replacement?" or "Will this the last forever?"

[Madmarcus]

One consolation of being old is that the new Genesis doesn’t need to last 17 years to outlive me.

That is now a consideration is my purchases. It's not a comforting feeling, except for when it comes to the really really really expensive stuff. "Can I get 20 years out of that? Will I need that in 20 years if I am still around?" Previous to that, durable goods were always "What is my cost over time before the cost of maintenance costs or replacement?" or "Will this the last forever?"

You guys are being depressing! Looking at my parents I figure I have at least 25 years left and it easily could be 30+.

[LordMortis]

One consolation of being old is that the new Genesis doesn’t need to last 17 years to outlive me.

That is now a consideration is my purchases. It's not a comforting feeling, except for when it comes to the really really really expensive stuff. "Can I get 20 years out of that? Will I need that in 20 years if I am still around?" Previous to that, durable goods were always "What is my cost over time before the cost of maintenance costs or replacement?" or "Will this the last forever?"

You guys are being depressing! Looking at my parents I figure I have at least 25 years left and it easily could be 30+.

I could have 35 years left. I am planning for such things as I can't imagine not doing so. However in 20 years, I won't have the need for or will to maintain many of the things I currently need to maintain.

[Madmarcus]

However in 20 years, I won't have the need for or will to maintain many of the things I currently need to maintain.

True; you're being a lot less depressing than Kraken! BTW, I know Kraken is older than both of us so I'm really just rattling his chain a little.

[jztemple2]

I just turned 71 but I remember my dad lived till 96 and was still able to make important decisions at ninety. So there's no excuse when I make some bone-headed ones now

[Kraken]

However in 20 years, I won't have the need for or will to maintain many of the things I currently need to maintain.

True; you're being a lot less depressing than Kraken! BTW, I know Kraken is older than both of us so I'm really just rattling his chain a little.

This should be in the old people thread but it came up here, so…

I’m 67. If my new grill lasts 17 years I’ll be 84. What I know about my genes (I’m adopted, so the fate of my “real” parents is irrelevant) is encouraging; my birth mother is still alive and independent. So to still be grilling at 84 isn’t out of the question. But being a lifelong smoker and drug enthusiast isn’t in the plus column, and being male is another demerit. More to the point, I don’t have kids and Wife is in worse shape than I am — when I can no longer take care of myself, nobody’s going to step in without getting paid, and the pool of paid elder care workers is small. So I hope to become safely dead slightly after I become dependent on strangers.

OTOH I'm in better shape than most people my age and my life is going great right now. As I've always said of my body, "let's redline this sucker." I might be immortal for all I know.

Finally, 17 years from now extreme weather will probably render grilling outdoors untenable. There -- I finished on topic.

[LordMortis]

I hope to become safely dead slightly after I become dependent on strangers.

+1 It seems to run in my family. My parents won't let me do anything for them and are very much planning end of life before allowing themselves to become dependent.

OTOH I'm in better shape than most people my age and my life is going great right now. As I've always said of my body, "let's redline this sucker." I might be immortal for all I know.

-1 but I'm working on it. At 54, the things I can still control are much better than they were at 45 (when my PCP informed me my health was worse than your average 80 year old and things were still declining all too quickly). The things I can't... well, the life I had slipped in to has taken its toll and then you add the trauma of an accident as the cherry.

[msteelers]

We (the wife and I) had been thinking about doing the roof in January, after un-decorating. Then today she says she'd like to get it done in early December before the decorations go up. The roofer came by this afternoon with the estimate which was quite reasonable, as replacing roofs go. After we did a lot of talking and were winding things up, he say how he and his crew have nothing happening right now and if we would contract to start next week he'll give us a little price break. So now in less than a week, unless something comes up, we will be having the roof replaced. This is so odd to me because the usual Florida experience is that it takes weeks to get a roofer lined up. We are hopeful everything will turn out OK

That's quick. We had our roof done earlier this year as it was getting old, and even though we were planning on selling the house we figured it would be easier to do so with a new roof. If I remember right they were 4-6 weeks out from when we signed the contract.

Did you look into the My Safe Florida program? It was a bit of a hassle, but the state funded $10k towards our new roof. It can also be used for things like hurricane shutters, windows, doors, etc. If you haven't used it yet keep an eye out to see if the legislature funds it again. mysafeflhome.com

[jztemple2]

We're lucky that we have a relationship with a local roofer and that he wasn't busy. On the other hand it does seem like the plan is coming together too well, something's bound to go wrong

That Florida program is unfortunately not accepting any more applications because they are out of funds

Meanwhile the weather here continues to be fine, temps in the low eighties but a bit drier than before. Sadly it looks like the weather will be good for Halloween to I'll have to break out the broken glass and barbed wire... j/k, I'm all out of barbed wire

And while the roof is happening next week, replacing the cover over the porch and rescreening the pool cage might be three months off.

[Madmarcus]

I’m 67.

Ah, for some reason I thought you were closer to my 58. Like 62 or something.

Finally, 17 years from now extreme weather will probably render grilling outdoors untenable. There -- I finished on topic.

I didn't want to go there even if it is on topic. I figure in 17 years I'll need to be grilling because I don't want to cook anything inside.

[jztemple2]

I didn't want to go there even if it is on topic. I figure in 17 years I'll need to be grilling because I don't want to cook anything inside.

No air conditioning? That's how with deal with the heat and humidity.

Meanwhile, the pool heating solar panel folks have come and gone, all the hardware is neatly stacked in the side yard for them to return in three weeks. And of course since we're getting the roof done next week the forecast is for possible rain each day . But for roofers in Florida, that's an occupational hazard.

At least that disturbance in the Caribbean seems to be destined to move off into the Atlantic and away from us.

So, it's the end of October. No one has any snow to report?

[telcta]

So, it's the end of October. No one has any snow to report?

We're going to hit 80 degrees in Connecticut on Halloween, so probably a ways off before we see some snow.

[Bad Demographic]

So, it's the end of October. No one has any snow to report?

The high here Monday is supposed to be 60 and there might be rain. If so, expect snow on the Organ mountains.

[LawBeefaroni]

We hit 83 yesterday. Ridiculous.

[LordMortis]

Only the high 70 here but the humidity is so high, I'm tempted to turn on the AC. That's nuts. Especially when it's almost November. The air is always dry this time of year, except when it's when it's raining (It's been a dry I don't know how long around here). This excellent Devil's Night mischief weather, so I'll be leaving the lights on all night and will probably try to stay up later than 2100. (without the assistance of loud drunken neighbors, though for this once, I'd welcome the loud barking dogs)

[gilraen]

It's snowing in the high country today. In the city, it's drizzling rain but it's supposed to turn into snow (or at least a rain-snow mix), and it's going to be below freezing tonight.

[Blackhawk]

Warm. Yesterday was 81, and I actually had to have my AC on overnight. Late October AC is a record for me here. I'll have the windows open well into November.

I'm hot-natured. I like cold weather. I keep the house at 66 in the daytime, 62 at night, and my bedroom in the 50s at night when I can (I close the door and open windows to keep it colder in there.) That's been one consolation of living in Indiana - you could count on a cold fall and winter. Not so much anymore.

[LordMortis]

I keep the house at 66 in the daytime, 62 at night,

That's what I do once I start using heat. Though I reserve the right to manually kick it up if I am slow moving or feeling bone chill from the house warming unevenly.

[Alefroth]

So, it's the end of October. No one has any snow to report?

Not from Mt. Fuji anyway.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2dp1l8wklo

[Pyperkub]

So, it's the end of October. No one has any snow to report?

The high here Monday is supposed to be 60 and there might be rain. If so, expect snow on the Organ mountains.

Watch out for blue (snow) balls!

[Isgrimnur]

Finally, 17 years from now extreme weather will probably render grilling outdoors untenable. There -- I finished on topic.

Grilling outdoors won't require equipment.

[Max Peck]

Finally, 17 years from now extreme weather will probably render grilling outdoors untenable. There -- I finished on topic.

Grilling outdoors won't require equipment.

In 2024, you grill outdoors. In 2042, the outdoors grills you.

Spoiler:

Yes, that's 18 years instead of 17, but the transposed digits make the joke work better.

[jztemple2]

Oh great, A November tropical storm in the Caribbean is now likely

It’s November, the final month of the Atlantic hurricane season, and the active hurricane season of 2024 appears primed to deliver a November named storm — which would be named Patty — in the Western Caribbean. A sprawling low-pressure system known as a Central American Gyre, or CAG, is developing over Central America and the southwestern Caribbean, which will bring heavy rain to portions of Central America. Rainfall in excess of 10 inches (250 mm) over Panama and Costa Rica over the next week could cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. The gyre also has the potential to spawn a tropical storm.
Track forecasts through Thursday, November 7, from the 0Z Friday, November 1, run of the European ensemble model. Individual forecasts of the ensemble members are the lines color-coded by the wind speed in knots they predict; dark blue colors correspond to a tropical depression or tropical storm

It's that damn blue line going across Florida that bothers me, I'm getting a new roof put on starting next Monday the last thing I need is a tropical storm

[The Meal]

Possibility for Colorado's first real storm of the season later this week:

By 2-6pm this afternoon, mountain snurfall will be pretty widespread along and west of the continental divide and in SE Wyoming where it may start off as rain initially in Cheyenne and then changeover pretty quickly.

Clouds will rapidly increase today for the front range & eastern plains of Colorado, SE Wyoming and the western Nebrasky pandyhandle along with the wind. Precipitation will be developing along and behind the cold front on and after 5pm.
Snow level will be around 6000 feet initially and then will drop pretty quickly; so any rain that starts along the front range will probably changeover soon after precipitation starts falling.

Highest accumulation potential is in the mountains, foothills west of I-25 especially in and south of Boulder County, and going into the Denver metro (especially the south burbs) and onto the Palmer Divide as well as the Raton Mesa in southern Colorado.

**THERE WILL BE POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO YOUR MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IN THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS IN AND SOUTH OF DENVER. PLAN ACCORDINGLY. YES I AM YELLING.**

Open waves with northwesterly winds generally dry out the northern front range pretty quickly. This is called downsloping. So, while there certainly could be a period of rain/snow across the northern front range, I expect accumulation across Larimer (below 8000 feet), Weld, and Morgan Counties and up the I-76 corridor north and east of Denver to be on the light side.

Precipitation will slowly dissipate throughout the day on Sunday as the center of low pressure quickly exits the region to our south and east. It will be a cold and blustery day on Monday. Highs mainly in the 30s and 40s along the front range & eastern plains and the western slope. 10s, 20s, and 30s in our mountains.

My attention will turn to our second storm! Impacts will begin being felt as early as Tuesday night, and will really ramp up Wednesday into Thursday with outside probabilities of precipitation lasting past Friday and into next weekend.

It’s one of these storms where I have looked at all the forecast model data, do a double take, and then explore every conceivable reason why they could all be wrong.

I say this, because if the current trends continue, we could be entertaining the idea of not only the first widespread significant snowstorm of the season, but the outside probability of approaching snowfall records for November that have stood since the 1940s. Again, I emphasize here, this is all **possibility and NOT certainty** – at least for right now.

Lots of variables in play. I’ve said it before, but here’s the rundown again:

1. It’s a colder storm.
2. The initial cold front is expected to come through Tuesday night ahead of the main trough.
3. The main trough will dig into the four corners region Wednesday and form a cut off low. A cut off low is a storm that gets “cut off” from the main jet stream flow. This slows the storm down to a crawl, and becomes heavily influenced by its surrounding environment.
4. With cut off lows, if they track in the right spot, this is a scenario that dumps heavy precipitation along the front range and the eastern plains. Forecast ensemble data supports heavy precipitation in the mountains too due to the potentially longer duration of the storm.

So, duration of the storm, and its exact track will be EVERYTHING with this storm. I’ve got a lot of work to do. Again, we’re looking at the Tuesday night – Thursday window with the potential for lingering impacts through Friday and into the upcoming weekend. No need to panic. No need to raid grocery store shelves. There’s plenty of bread and milk for everybody you little sinners.

Yeah, he's a little extra sassy, but he's also the best forecaster for a notoriously difficult-to-forecast area (coming off the Front Range) I've found in my 24 years of living in this area, so I try my best to read through it.

The NWS's take on the same:

[jztemple2]

Sounds like fun! I lived in southern Colorado (Alamosa) for a couple of years, I remember how much of an impact the first big snow storm of the season can have. I'd never even heard of studded snow tires till after the first big snowfall and I couldn't get my car to turn at the corners.

Meanwhile that late season disturbance in the western Caribbean is looking more sinister. And it's just not the track, it's the damn intensity forecast that's got me concerned.

And, as previously mentioned, the roofers are coming tomorrow for what was supposed to be a four day job. We're now looking at rain the second day and thunderstorms the third and fourth days

[Kraken]

Your links are 403 Forbidden in my Firefox.

[jztemple2]

Your links are 403 Forbidden in my Firefox.

Weird... I'll fix or delete.

[Isgrimnur]

They were there before.

[jztemple2]

Here you go, from the NHC. They are expecting the storm to only reach minimum hurricane strength and then weaken a bit before going onshore.

[Kraken]

I wish some of that water would come our way. We’re in a “flash drought” (new term to me) and the best the forecast can offer is a 50% chance of showers a week from today.

[jztemple2]

So the roofers were here at 7am this morning, as promised, and as I predicted it's been raining, three times showers have moved through. But the showers are only a few minutes in duration so I guess everything is still alright. The roofer boss said his guys would be here today until it got too dark to work and would be here again tomorrow at 7am. And again, chances are good of rain showers tomorrow too

It's been 25 years since we've had the roof done. By the time it needs to be done again it's quite likely I won't be here to care

Meanwhile the estimates on Tropical Disturbance 18 have been toned down, it will most likely now not hit the gulf coast as anything more than a tropical storm, less than a hurricane.

[Pyperkub]

Mrs Kub is going to Oklahoma to see her dad this weekend, and while tornado season generally doesn't last until November (one of the reasons we/she go in November), tornado season looks pretty busy this week:

OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) — Severe storms and tornadoes battered Oklahoma early Sunday, tossing cars and ripping roofs off buildings in the middle of the night and leaving tens of thousands of homes and businesses without power. Among numerous injuries, 11 people required hospitalization, authorities said.

Much of the damage was reported in and around the state capital of Oklahoma City, near the state’s center, but also scattered elsewhere around the state. The early morning storms set off tornado warnings that extended south to the Arkansas state line. Heavy rains caused flash flooding in some areas and one lightning-sparked house fire was reported.

More than 99,000 Oklahoma homes and businesses lost power during the overnight storms. By late Sunday afternoon, that number was reduced to around 24,000. No fatalities had been reported.

There's some video at the link.

[jztemple2]

Roofer are done for today, they finished taking off the old shingles and adding the "tar paper", whatever we are calling it nowadays. Hopefully the shingles will be delivered early tomorrow so they might even finish, although the weather looks iffy in the afternoon.

Meanwhile, TD18 is now Rafael.
"

[jztemple2]

They finished installing the new roof yesterday, two days total isn't bad. And of course it rained several times on Monday when it was most exposed (and it wasn't supposed to rain) while on Tuesday, when they had the underlayer already laid, while it was supposed to rain it didn't .

Meanwhile Hurricane Rafael is crossing western Cuba as a major hurricane . It is expected to turn west and go into the Gulf of Mexico where unfavorable conditions (that is, unfavorable to Rafael!) will cause the storm to lose strength.

[jztemple2]

We haven't talked drought in a while. Here's the latest US map. Here in the peninsula of Florida we've had one hurricane come by offshore and the big one cross west to east, so we're doing fine for moisture.

[Jeff V]

We haven't talked drought in a while. Here's the latest US map. Here in the peninsula of Florida we've had one hurricane come by offshore and the big one cross west to east, so we're doing fine for moisture.

We had drought most of the summer. Now we're getting some rain -- usually first week of October is last lawn mowing of the year, I had my son do it a week ago and it needs it again -- the dandelions are still seeding...

[jztemple2]

Our latest weather forecast. The first real cold front of the season will come through on Wednesday, dropping the highs by fifteen degrees between tomorrow and Thursday. Temps are back up by the days before Thanksgiving however.