Octopus Overlords

Fireball wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 12:27 pm So the thing is you don't just sanction the Russian people, you sanction the Russian billionaire class, who Putin depends upon for his political support. We should take the package of sanctions we used against Iran and start from there, adding in significant sanctions on wealthy individuals connected to Russia. Freeze all their assets in the West. Deny any Russia-based corporation access to dollars or euros or the international banking system. Expel from Western countries any and all Russian-national employees of businesses close to Putin, and all family members of executives of those businesses, including young people attending Western schools. Personal pain targeting the people Putin needs support from will likely be more impactful than generalized sanctions on the Russian population.

That would be a good start, I agree. I will also admit complete ignorance when it comes to sanctions that severe, but would that not basically openly declare war on Russia? Also, what is the legal availability to do these actions if they are not directly connected to the government? That sounds to me like it would be akin to Russian cutting off any money that Gates or Bezos or Musk might have in Russian territories. Like I said, I don't know the legal ramifications of that, seeing as it is tantamount to theft of a private citizen's money (not that Putin wouldn't stoop to that...he's done much worse).

The other question is does anyone seriously believe that Trump would have gone to these lengths to do so?

For all their talk I'm not sure the EU is going to do much substantially. I'm not sure of the US either.
Will China take advantage of this to invade Taiwan now?

Fireball wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 12:27 pm So the thing is you don't just sanction the Russian people, you sanction the Russian billionaire class, who Putin depends upon for his political support. We should take the package of sanctions we used against Iran and start from there, adding in significant sanctions on wealthy individuals connected to Russia. Freeze all their assets in the West. Deny any Russia-based corporation access to dollars or euros or the international banking system. Expel from Western countries any and all Russian-national employees of businesses close to Putin, and all family members of executives of those businesses, including young people attending Western schools. Personal pain targeting the people Putin needs support from will likely be more impactful than generalized sanctions on the Russian population.

The higher up the food chain, the more likely they have been able to protect assets. Sure you can cause oligarchs and the inner circle some pain but compared to the promises they've probably been given and Putin's reputation dealing with squeaky wheels, I don't see them buckling. It should also be noted that Putin is probably the world's wealthiest man. He can personally ease a lot of the pain.

dbt1949 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 12:51 pmWill China take advantage of this to invade Taiwan now?

Almost certainly a no.

You know what happens when an oligarch loses $5 B. He yawns. The Russian people need to feel these sanctions too.

Grifman wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 1:53 am Worst take on Ukraine other than Trump/Tucker:

Yep. And now I'm seeing this getting parroted around:

Good grief. These people are morons.

Anybody remember when Trump witheld security aid to Ukraine?

The Ukraine guard needs to put up a solid defense. They don't stand much off a chance in the long term but if they can make it costly at the outset, they can be the tip of the wedge. Any difficulty for the invasion forces (police keeping forces, whatever we're calling them) and the whole thing becomes far less popular at home. There's a lot of pride on the Russian military and remember, as posted upthread, they launched the attacks on Defender of the Fatherland Day.


Side note, this is probably the most significant European conflict in the age of rampant social media. Propaganda is going to be lightning fast.

Kurth wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 1:09 pm Good grief. These people are morons.

Agree, that is a STUPID take, and probably not at all in the minds of most Trumpers (ask me how I know).

The first take is certainly dumb but actually Cenk has a real point here. There is a definite axis in the white nationalist movement here in America that backs Putin because he has been seen as strong on protecting white nationalist identity and also for his anti-gay pogroms. It is most prevalent in neo-Nazi circles which for decades has talked about how Hitler was right. Putin has been for some time become the embodiment of the "pure White" muscularity they desire here. That he is attacking a fellow almost uniformly white country is entirely put aside in this calculation.

Edit: Just did a quick scan for something hard around this and found this opinion piece from Haaretz. Also keep in mind that the leader of the neo-Nazi group The Base Rinaldo Nazzarro fled to Russia a few years back and orchestrated a conspiracy that led to arrests of several members for conspiracy to attempt murder from there.

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 1:14 pm

Kurth wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 1:09 pm Good grief. These people are morons.

Agree, that is a STUPID take, and probably not at all in the minds of most Trumpers (ask me how I know).

Yep. But you know what else? These fringe idiots on the left who want to make literally EVERYTHING about race are amplified to a ridiculous degree in right wing circles. It's why most Trumpers probably feel this is a mainstream position for those on the left.

https://www.newsweek.com/former-trump-a ... in-1682122

Pursuant to the topic at hand, here's Bannon supporting Putin, noting his anti-LGBT policies.

malchior wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 1:16 pm The first take is certainly dumb but actually Cenk has a real point here. There is a definite axis in the white nationalist movement here in America that backs Putin because he has been seen as strong on protecting white nationalist identity and also for his anti-gay pogroms. It is most prevalent in neo-Nazi circles which for decades has talked about how Hitler was right. Putin has been for some time become the embodiment of the "pure White" muscularity they desire here. That he is attacking a fellow almost uniformly white country is entirely put aside in this calculation.

There's so much that's inconsistent and incoherent here.

1. Putin's is using "de-Nazifying Ukraine" as a pretext for his invasion. How is that appealing to the neo-Nazi circles?
2. As you point out, Putin is attacking a Christian country that is nearly all white.
3. The axis of strong men that Trump and the authoritarian-loving Right have tried to cozy up to are in no way limited to white guys: Kim Jong Un, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President Xi Jinping, Rodrigo Duterte. How many of those are white guys? Also, for those who like visuals, which one of these is NOT like the others:



The idea that MAGA-land loves Putin because he is white is far-fetched. They love him because Trump tells them to (that's how it works in a cult of personality). And Trump loves Putin because he is a beautiful, strong man and is a central part of some of Trump's most deeply held fantasies:

Kurth wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 1:29 pm

malchior wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 1:16 pm The first take is certainly dumb but actually Cenk has a real point here. There is a definite axis in the white nationalist movement here in America that backs Putin because he has been seen as strong on protecting white nationalist identity and also for his anti-gay pogroms. It is most prevalent in neo-Nazi circles which for decades has talked about how Hitler was right. Putin has been for some time become the embodiment of the "pure White" muscularity they desire here. That he is attacking a fellow almost uniformly white country is entirely put aside in this calculation.

There's so much that's inconsistent and incoherent here.

Because consistency and coherence are major traits in racist extremist thinking? It's no more complicated than "he's white, he's powerful, and he's going to war." The fact that he hates gays is a plus. The fact that he's "reuniting" Ukraine using ethnic and Christian orthodoxy as pretexts is a plus. Nothing else is needed for certain elements to rally around him. Not all elements. But certain ones.

Kurth wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 1:29 pm

malchior wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 1:16 pm The first take is certainly dumb but actually Cenk has a real point here. There is a definite axis in the white nationalist movement here in America that backs Putin because he has been seen as strong on protecting white nationalist identity and also for his anti-gay pogroms. It is most prevalent in neo-Nazi circles which for decades has talked about how Hitler was right. Putin has been for some time become the embodiment of the "pure White" muscularity they desire here. That he is attacking a fellow almost uniformly white country is entirely put aside in this calculation.

There's so much that's inconsistent and incoherent here.

It isn't inconsistent and incoherent. You have completely misread the post. I'm also suggesting you misunderstood what Cenk was saying. I'm not a huge fan of his in general but he is on target with that comment. It's a real phenomenon. There can be an argument how much influence that has on pro-Putin positions but it's certainly in the mix.

1. Putin's is using "de-Nazifying Ukraine" as a pretext for his invasion. How is that appealing to the neo-Nazi circles?

That happened yesterday. I'm talking about what has been happening for years and Cenk is almost certainly talking from that perspective as well. Anyone who has been following white nationalism in any depth understands where he is coming from.

2. As you point out, Putin is attacking a Christian country that is nearly all white.

Not inconsistent on my part. There are tons of folks on the right who have longed for a white nationalist strongman. They loved that about Trump. They have it in Putin right now. It isn't like these are philosophers here. They don't need to be and certainly don't attempt to be consistent on their end. They'll back into justifications like they do for all the bad things that are happening.

The idea that MAGA-land loves Putin because he is white is far-fetched.

It isn't far-fetched - it is *documented*. There has been a lot of discussion about this. That is a representative sample. Is the average MAGA person saying Putin is white so he is right? Heck no but they are influenced by white nationalist extremists. They are loosely in the same information sphere. Also Tucker Carlson has pretty much said this stuff out loud in one shape or form in the last few weeks. This isn't some wacky theory.

They love him because Trump tells them to (that's how it works in a cult of personality). And Trump loves Putin because he is a beautiful, strong man and is a central part of some of Trump's most deeply held fantasies:

This is certainly part of it and I talked about that earlier above in my long response to the previous dissection.

One of my active duty military students on the USS [REDACTED] just emailed me to ask for an extension as they are "underway." So, that's fun. (Yes, I granted it).

I thought the Redacted was in the Pacific...

Blackhawk wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 1:57 pm I thought the Redacted was in the Pacific...

Could well be. China is rattling sabres.

Lots of anti-war protests popping up across Russia. Plenty of arrests, let's see if Putin gets it under control.

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 11:48 am I've already seen locals blaming Biden for higher gas prices now because he ... didn't deal with Putin.

This has been the case here for weeks. After Obama made Putin look very small (literally and figuratively) Trump could fellate Putin for four years, begging to be pissed on while trying to be the downfall of NATO but somehow it's Biden who did all this.

Fireball wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 12:27 pm Freeze all their assets in the West. Deny any Russia-based corporation access to dollars or euros or the international banking system. Expel from Western countries any and all Russian-national employees of businesses close to Putin, and all family members of executives of those businesses, including young people attending Western schools. Personal pain targeting the people Putin needs support from will likely be more impactful than generalized sanctions on the Russian population.

Yes, please.

Let's hope China doesn't make the whole world explode. From yesterday:

Taiwan's defense ministry on Thursday said that nine Chinese aircraft had entered its air defense identification zone, just hours after Russia had launched an invasion into Ukraine.

The ministry said that the mission involved eight J-16 sorties and one Y-8 reconnaissance aircraft.

The ministry also released the flight paths of the aircraft and said they flew over an area to the northeast of the Taiwan-controlled Pratas Islands, Reuters reported.

In response, Taiwanese fighters were deployed to warn the Chinese aircraft and air defense missiles were scrambled to "monitor the activities," the ministry said, according to the newswire.

This comes just a day after China's foreign ministry on Wednesday said Taiwan is "not Ukraine" and has always been a part of China amid Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen's call for increased vigilance of military activities in response to the crisis in Ukraine.

Funny how none of this seemed possible until Florida Man all but withdrew from NATO. He may not be the antichrist, but he plays one on TV.

Good Thread on the military aspect:

hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Defiant wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 11:13 am

Russian troops breach area near Chernobyl, adviser to Ukrainian minister says

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 022-02-24/

Apparently the invasion isn't going as smoothly as Putin would like.

There was footage this morning of Russian heliborne troops seizing the military airport near Kiev. Now there's reporting that Ukrainian forces have ejected them and reclaimed the base.

So any chance Putin gets bogged down in guerilla warfare for the next couple decades?

Holman wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 5:48 pm Apparently the invasion isn't going as smoothly as Putin would like.

There was footage this morning of Russian heliborne troops seizing the military airport near Kiev. Now there's reporting that Ukrainian forces have ejected them and reclaimed the base.

There were also reports that at least one scouting element was captured by the Ukrainians. They stuck him on tv and the soldier apparently indicated they had no idea that they were the vanguard of an invasion.

Jaymann wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 5:52 pm So any chance Putin gets bogged down in guerilla warfare for the next couple decades?

It's on the table. They've been bogged down in eastern Ukraine for 8 years at this point.

Holman wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 5:48 pm Apparently the invasion isn't going as smoothly as Putin would like.

There was footage this morning of Russian heliborne troops seizing the military airport near Kiev. Now there's reporting that Ukrainian forces have ejected them and reclaimed the base.

Do you have a link to that? I assume you mean Antonov airport? Cause the only thing I'm seeing is that the Russian's captured it. No mention of Ukraine taking it back.

The reporting is brand new and it's mostly in Ukrainian. The claim is that the Russians took it, there was a counter attack with the Foreign Minister claiming they were forced to shell the airport, and as of an hour ago a reinforcement mission by the Russians was intercepted, had been killed (or surrendered) and the Ukrainians had the airport back.

raydude wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 6:03 pm

Holman wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 5:48 pm Apparently the invasion isn't going as smoothly as Putin would like.

There was footage this morning of Russian heliborne troops seizing the military airport near Kiev. Now there's reporting that Ukrainian forces have ejected them and reclaimed the base.

Do you have a link to that? I assume you mean Antonov airport? Cause the only thing I'm seeing is that the Russian's captured it. No mention of Ukraine taking it back.

It's Hostomel airport. Reporting from this morning is about the Russians seizing it, and reporting from the past hour or so is about Ukrainians taking it back.

The Russians were elite airborne (maybe Spetsnaz). If they've been killed or captured, that's a propaganda coup for Kiev.

This makes me cry every time I see it:

Ive watched videos of protesters in Russia even and them being arrested. Russia needs to decide just what kind of country it is and stick with it. Many are saying that Putin cant afford this with their economy and such. Not sure what he is after. They should really redo their government.

Gary Kasparov has some ideas about what the response to Purim’s invasion should entail:

Grifman wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:05 pm This makes me cry every time I see it:

I just imagine the conversation.

Kurth wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:36 pm Gary Kasparov has some ideas about what the response to Purim’s invasion should entail:

It's easy to say what to do. It's much harder to say how to do it.