Super Bowl LI

[noxiousdog]

With data going back to 1989, Football Outsiders considers the Falcons as one of the top 3% offenses in their statistical database, but definitely not the greatest of all time. We're really arguing about semantics though.

There's been two teams 40% above league average for the year. There are several teams that have been 30% above. The Falcons are "only" 25% above average. That's a pretty large gap to be in the greatest of all time discussion, but top 3% of all time is still pretty awesome.

[morlac]

LOL. You don't watch many falcons games do you? You can't be serious, right?

I'm starting to suspect that you only watch falcons games.

Giggle. Your so cute.

Edited: Totally forgot about our bad Philly game! Meh, can't be perfect every Sunday

[RunningMn9]

We're really arguing about semantics though.

The best kind.

I discovered the most efficient RB of this century today, clearly he's an all-time great RB. The numbers said so, convincingly I might add.

[RunningMn9]

You said I couldnt do that to prove how good they are. You can't do the same to prove how meh they are.

Hold up there. We were having good fun here, but you are putting words in my mouth that I didn't say. I didn't suggest that the Falcons offense is meh. They are the best offense in the NFL this year. What I said was that I don't consider them some sort of outlier in terms of the annual best offense in the NFL department. I find them very good. I don't find them historic or remarkable. Apparently I reserve those labels for offenses that fundamentally change how the game is played. And this offense isn't one of those (any more than the Panthers were last year). But they are certainly better than the Panthers last year.

And I believe that I said that it was very difficult to compare offenses over time because too many variables change. When talking NFL history, that matters. How do you compare the 2017 Falcons to the 1950 Rams? That team had a 2-game stretch where they scored SEVENTEEN offensive TDs (including 11 passing TDs). They put up 135 points over back-to-back games. In 1950. They ended the season averaging 38.8 points per game - an offensive record that has stood for 67 years. What about the 1981 Chargers? They fundamentally changed football. How do you normalize a 4800 yard passer in 1981 against an offense in 2017 where it's almost normal now (primarily due to rule changes which have opened up the passing game)? I'm not saying you can't, but it's hard and you can't just compare them directly. In 1981 you could pretty much stab WRs and get away with it. Fouts threw for almost 1000 yards more than the #2 QB in the NFL that year. If Ryan threw for 6100 yards this year, maybe this would be a different conversation.

We haven't even talked about the 1987 49ers. That offense was *disgusting* to watch, and is the primary reason that I brought up how statistics are manipulated by game situation. That offense was paired with a Top 5 defense (#1 in yards, #3 in points). Their average margin of victory for that 15-game season was almost two TDs. And despite statistical numbers that weren't quite as good, I'm not sure the 1989 49ers weren't even better. That 55 points in the Super Bowl that year was against the best scoring defense in the NFL. After the put up 41 against the #6 scoring defense.

The most unstoppable offensive force I remember seeing live is the 1991 Washington Redskins. They led the NFL that year with 30.3 ppg (less than the Falcons). But they only allowed 14 ppg on defense. An *average* point differential of almost 17 points is incredible. By way of comparison - their average margin of victory was twice what the Falcons accomplished this year. And I bring that up because there are times when an offense HAS to score a shit ton of points, or pile up miles of yardage because the defense is letting them down. Conversely that must mean that there are times when an offense doesn't need to do that because their defense is curb-stomping the opponent, and their job is then to shorten the game to get the win. That's why I don't generally like to compare simplistic stats (even trying to compare them using relative performance against the NFL that year). Simplistic stats are generally easily misleading.

You are interpreting my comment that I don't consider them worthy of ALL-TIME best offenses as implying that they are a bullshit offense. I'm not. They are an excellent offense, the best in the NFL this year. They just don't seem like an all-time offense to me. Relax.

Also, please pay attention to the fact that Xmann went through this last year. How did that work out for him? I'm nothing if not a superstitious creature.

[EvilHomer3k]

We're really arguing about semantics though.

The best kind.

I discovered the most efficient RB of this century today, clearly he's an all-time great RB. The numbers said so, convincingly I might add.

No, you discovered clickbait. Congratulations. Welcome to the internet.

[El Guapo]

Roger Goodell Announces New Contest Offering NFL Fans Chance To Present Lombardi Trophy To Super Bowl–Winning Team.

NEW YORK—As part of the build-up to the highly anticipated matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell announced a new contest Wednesday offering fans the chance to present the Vince Lombardi Trophy to the winning team of Super Bowl LI. “This year, for the first time ever, one lucky fan will get the opportunity to go down onto the field after the game and hand the famed Lombardi Trophy to the head coach and owner of the Super Bowl champions,” said Goodell, adding that the randomly drawn winner would get to personally congratulate the team on the trophy presentation stage in front of over 70,000 fans at NRG Stadium and an estimated 160 million people watching on television around the world. “Not only will they pose for photographs while holding the Lombardi Trophy alongside the winning team’s ownership, but they will also get to shake hands with the player selected as Super Bowl MVP. I couldn’t be more excited to make one fan’s dream come true on Super Bowl Sunday.” Goodell added that in order to provide “the ultimate Super Bowl experience,” he will generously allow the contest winner to sit in the commissioner’s seat during the game while he watches it from home.

[Zarathud]

There is only one way to properly solve this debate. Agree to make a bet on the outcome and publicly shame the loser.

[Apollo]

Well this Falcon Fan wants you all to know that he thinks the Patriots are going to win 52-0, with Tom Brady throwing seven touchdown passes. Tom will end the game by kicking a 42yd FG while Roger Goodell glares at him from the sidelines.

[morlac]

We're really arguing about semantics though.

The best kind.

I discovered the most efficient RB of this century today, clearly he's an all-time great RB. The numbers said so, convincingly I might add.

No, you discovered clickbait. Congratulations. Welcome to the internet.

Not really. That dude is really good...in limited touches. Being really efficient with a few carries a game does not make one great however which I'm sure RM9 knows. Cool find though.

[morlac]

There is only one way to properly solve this debate. Agree to make a bet on the outcome and publicly shame the loser.

$25 steam card?

[morlac]

Well this Falcon Fan wants you all to know that he thinks the Patriots are going to win 52-0, with Tom Brady throwing seven touchdown passes. Tom will end the game by kicking a 42yd FG with an under deflated football while Roger Goodell glares at him from the sidelines.

Fixed that for you.

[Jaymann]

If it were under deflated, that would mean it was still too inflated.

[El Guapo]

If it were under deflated, that would mean it was still too inflated.

Nobody doesn't know that Falcons fans have never been not bad with double negatives.

[msduncan]

[msduncan]

I haven't caught up on this thread, but I still <3 Julio Jones.

[El Guapo]

I haven't caught up on this thread, but I still <3 Julio Jones.

What about me, MSD?

[rshetts2]

Roger Goodell Announces New Contest Offering NFL Fans Chance To Present Lombardi Trophy To Super Bowl–Winning Team.

NEW YORK—As part of the build-up to the highly anticipated matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell announced a new contest Wednesday offering fans the chance to present the Vince Lombardi Trophy to the winning team of Super Bowl LI. “This year, for the first time ever, one lucky fan will get the opportunity to go down onto the field after the game and hand the famed Lombardi Trophy to the head coach and owner of the Super Bowl champions,” said Goodell, adding that the randomly drawn winner would get to personally congratulate the team on the trophy presentation stage in front of over 70,000 fans at NRG Stadium and an estimated 160 million people watching on television around the world. “Not only will they pose for photographs while holding the Lombardi Trophy alongside the winning team’s ownership, but they will also get to shake hands with the player selected as Super Bowl MVP. I couldn’t be more excited to make one fan’s dream come true on Super Bowl Sunday.” Goodell added that in order to provide “the ultimate Super Bowl experience,” he will generously allow the contest winner to sit in the commissioner’s seat during the game while he watches it from home.

What a clever way of avoiding having to hand the trophy to those two cheaters Belichick and Brady, himself.

[morlac]

You said I couldnt do that to prove how good they are. You can't do the same to prove how meh they are.

Hold up there. We were having good fun here, but you are putting words in my mouth that I didn't say. I didn't suggest that the Falcons offense is meh. They are the best offense in the NFL this year. What I said was that I don't consider them some sort of outlier in terms of the annual best offense in the NFL department. I find them very good. I don't find them historic or remarkable. Apparently I reserve those labels for offenses that fundamentally change how the game is played. And this offense isn't one of those (any more than the Panthers were last year). But they are certainly better than the Panthers last year.

And I believe that I said that it was very difficult to compare offenses over time because too many variables change. When talking NFL history, that matters. How do you compare the 2017 Falcons to the 1950 Rams? That team had a 2-game stretch where they scored SEVENTEEN offensive TDs (including 11 passing TDs). They put up 135 points over back-to-back games. In 1950. They ended the season averaging 38.8 points per game - an offensive record that has stood for 67 years. What about the 1981 Chargers? They fundamentally changed football. How do you normalize a 4800 yard passer in 1981 against an offense in 2017 where it's almost normal now (primarily due to rule changes which have opened up the passing game)? I'm not saying you can't, but it's hard and you can't just compare them directly. In 1981 you could pretty much stab WRs and get away with it. Fouts threw for almost 1000 yards more than the #2 QB in the NFL that year. If Ryan threw for 6100 yards this year, maybe this would be a different conversation.

We haven't even talked about the 1987 49ers. That offense was *disgusting* to watch, and is the primary reason that I brought up how statistics are manipulated by game situation. That offense was paired with a Top 5 defense (#1 in yards, #3 in points). Their average margin of victory for that 15-game season was almost two TDs. And despite statistical numbers that weren't quite as good, I'm not sure the 1989 49ers weren't even better. That 55 points in the Super Bowl that year was against the best scoring defense in the NFL. After the put up 41 against the #6 scoring defense.

The most unstoppable offensive force I remember seeing live is the 1991 Washington Redskins. They led the NFL that year with 30.3 ppg (less than the Falcons). But they only allowed 14 ppg on defense. An *average* point differential of almost 17 points is incredible. By way of comparison - their average margin of victory was twice what the Falcons accomplished this year. And I bring that up because there are times when an offense HAS to score a shit ton of points, or pile up miles of yardage because the defense is letting them down. Conversely that must mean that there are times when an offense doesn't need to do that because their defense is curb-stomping the opponent, and their job is then to shorten the game to get the win. That's why I don't generally like to compare simplistic stats (even trying to compare them using relative performance against the NFL that year). Simplistic stats are generally easily misleading.

You are interpreting my comment that I don't consider them worthy of ALL-TIME best offenses as implying that they are a bullshit offense. I'm not. They are an excellent offense, the best in the NFL this year. They just don't seem like an all-time offense to me. Relax.

Also, please pay attention to the fact that Xmann went through this last year. How did that work out for him? I'm nothing if not a superstitious creature.

Just having fun here for sure. Nothing personal. zero chance I can relax, way to amped....obviously.

I think my biggest issue is that you labelled it comical and absurd to even consider this offense as one of the best of all time. You called out my hyperbole with hyperbole? Then you dismissed a plethora of gaudy stats and said you can't even compare offense from bygone eras while proceeding to do just that (you can't even do that right as you bring up margin of victory which has as much to do with defense as offense.). You forgot to bring up that when a team is up by 3 tds the offense will also lay off the gas effecting total points scored. That happened quite a bit for the Falcons. You mentioned simplistic stats but I brought up advanced analytical stats that you dismissed as well. It looks like you weigh greatness like this:
1. Innovation
2. Execution
3. Gut/Eye ball
4. Stats
5. Defense? (margin of victory)

Mine is more like:
1. Execution
2. Stats
4. Gut Eye/Ball
5. Str. of Schedule

Lastly, The fact that you said even if they win the SB and score 30+ they still wouldn't be worthy of discussion is just trolling. Funny enough the offenses you will discuss as great above 1950 Rams, 1981 chargers lost the championship game, the 1987 49ers lost in the divisional round, Finally the 1989 49ers won with the most dominate run in Superbowl history outscoring their opponents 126-26. That team was just sick:
Wiki said
"Quarterback Joe Montana had one of the greatest passing seasons in NFL history in 1989. Montana set a then-NFL record with a passer rating of 112.4,[4] with a completion percentage of 70.2%, and a 26/8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In the playoffs, Montana was even more dominant, with a 78.3% completion percentage, 800 yards, 11 touchdowns, no interceptions, and a 146.4 rating. Cold Hard Football Facts calls Montana's 1989 season "the one by which we must measure all other passing seasons."[5]

I love that last line.

Matt Ryan 2016 Stats: 69.9% completion, 38 TD 7 INT. QB rating 117.1
Matt Ryan 2 playoff games: 70.5ish% 7 TD 0 INT QB rating 132.6

[morlac]

If it were under deflated, that would mean it was still too inflated.

Nobody doesn't know that Falcons fans have never been not bad with double negatives.

[RunningMn9]

I said that their offense is what it is, irrespective of the outcome of a single game. That's not a slight. Any given Sunday and all that. That's been my policy for a long time.

And yes, the claims seemed absurd to me when you made them (particularly the claim about Ryan). Maybe less so now, but my apologies for meeting hyperbole with hyperbole.

[morlac]

I said that their offense is what it is, irrespective of the outcome of a single game. That's not a slight. Any given Sunday and all that. That's been my policy for a long time.

And yes, the claims seemed absurd to me when you made them (particularly the claim about Ryan). Maybe less so now, but my apologies for meeting hyperbole with hyperbole.

Excellent! Agreed on the Ryan one, that was a little fanatical even if he has been very clutch thus far in his career.

Less so now you say? My nagging is working .

Let's move on and discuss how the Patriots could possibly stop Atlanta?

I got nothing. Seriously. Would love to hear from Pats fans on this.

Only team to do it was Philly and they got a couple of turnovers and ran the ball all over us keeping the offense off the field. Atlanta's defense has gotten better against the run and in general as the season has gone on but certainly still vulnerable to this plan. Granted, that's not really stopping just limiting opportunities.

[RunningMn9]

Less so now you say?

I'm just trying to figure out how much I value my perception of their incredible depth and lack of reliance on any particular player outside of Ryan.

As for the Patriots plan? Kill Ryan.

[msduncan]

I haven't caught up on this thread, but I still <3 Julio Jones.

What about me, MSD?

Love him too. Julio is one of my favorites of all time though.

[morlac]

Less so now you say?

I'm just trying to figure out how much I value my perception of their incredible depth and lack of reliance on any particular player outside of Ryan.

As for the Patriots plan? Kill Ryan.

I think their depth and ability to spread the love is exactly what makes them so great and impossible to stop. That and all that speed. Every great offense has had incredibly good players at the key skill positions. Falcons are no different but when your third string blocking TE goes for 20.3 yards a reception and 3 TD's and your off the street 4th and 5th string TE each score a TD in their first game you got something special cooking. Another silly fact: one of or backup guards/centers (Ben Garland) was activated off the practice squad 4 games ago has 3 tackles for losses on the season and got a safety (ok Wilson fell but still ) in one game he played a few snaps at center since he goes both ways....hubba hubba.

[El Guapo]

I said that their offense is what it is, irrespective of the outcome of a single game. That's not a slight. Any given Sunday and all that. That's been my policy for a long time.

And yes, the claims seemed absurd to me when you made them (particularly the claim about Ryan). Maybe less so now, but my apologies for meeting hyperbole with hyperbole.

Excellent! Agreed on the Ryan one, that was a little fanatical even if he has been very clutch thus far in his career.

Less so now you say? My nagging is working .

Let's move on and discuss how the Patriots could possibly stop Atlanta?

I got nothing. Seriously. Would love to hear from Pats fans on this.

Only team to do it was Philly and they got a couple of turnovers and ran the ball all over us keeping the offense off the field. Atlanta's defense has gotten better against the run and in general as the season has gone on but certainly still vulnerable to this plan. Granted, that's not really stopping just limiting opportunities.

I do like how you're like, I can't think of anyway to stop the Falcons. Well, except that one time when a team followed a good strategy and stopped Atlanta. And the Patriots have two good running backs - Blount and Lewis are both very solid. So that's definitely a plausible route to victory - use Blount and Lewis to chew up clock and limit Atlanta drives, double-team Jones (to limit him even if you can't contain him entirely), and put Malcolm Butler on the #2 receiver.

Also, how good is Atlanta's pass rush? Traditionally that's Brady's big vulnerability (a la the Giants super bowls) - if you can get consistent pressure on him without a regular blitz, he becomes much more mortal. If you can't, he'll use up a ton of clock himself.

[morlac]

I do like how you're like, I can't think of anyway to stop the Falcons. Well, except that one time when a team followed a good strategy and stopped Atlanta. And the Patriots have two good running backs - Blount and Lewis are both very solid. So that's definitely a plausible route to victory - use Blount and Lewis to chew up clock and limit Atlanta drives, double-team Jones (to limit him even if you can't contain him entirely), and put Malcolm Butler on the #2 receiver.

Also, how good is Atlanta's pass rush? Traditionally that's Brady's big vulnerability (a la the Giants super bowls) - if you can get consistent pressure on him without a regular blitz, he becomes much more mortal. If you can't, he'll use up a ton of clock himself.

Yep, that is the only recipe to beat them so far but you have to also force them to make mistakes on offense while limiting there chances. Pats can certainly do the first part, I love their RB combo. Not sure on the second, their front 7 is great but secondary and pass def, is their weak spot, albeit not a big one. Also, nobody has done it since week 10 which is odd since it seemed to have worked...shrug.

ATl pass rush is solid for a change this year. Beasley led the league in sacks at 15.5 and lead the league with 6 forced fumbles. He''s a wrecking crew but our second pass rusher is out for season so they have had to blitz a little more lately but it's been working. Aaron Rogers can attest.
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-high ... rdy-Nelson

That's our undrafted rookie nickle back.

Blitzing Brady can be a damned if you do scenario but I don't see any other way. Gotta bring it up the middle and not the edges on Brady. Hes feet are in cement

Edit to add:

When Julio doesn't play or is held to 3 or less catches the Falcons are 5-0. If he caught 4 or less they are 7-1. Bring on the double team!

[stessier]

Rutgers has as many players in the Super Bowl as Alabama does.

[Smoove_B]

Rutgers has as many players in the Super Bowl as Alabama does.

More.

But, given the matchup, Super Bowl LI might as well be Super Bowl RU. Rutgers -- yes, Rutgers -- will have more players on the combined rosters than any other college team, more than Alabama, more than LSU and Stanford, and more than twice as many as any other Big Ten team.

[gameoverman]

Tom Brady has been in enough SBs that he's not going to get rattled mentally. They might sack him, they might force him to throw the ball away, but he won't lose focus. Ryan on the other hand, he's not quite there yet. That's why I think the Patriots' best strategy might be to do whatever they can to get in Ryan's head. They can't stop Jones, I'm sure of that, but Jones is a non factor if the quarterback is struggling. This is where coaching comes in, because what I'm thinking is more about confusing him and frustrating him rather than simply depending on a pass rush. Belichick needs to step up here.

[RunningMn9]

To be fair, Ryan is a *very* experienced QB. I don't imagine that it would be easy to get in his head or confuse him.

[stessier]

Holy cow - Gostkoswki is on the injury report with a concussion.

[stessier]

Recap of AFC Champ game

Worth watching the whole thing if you are a Pats fan.

For everyone else, a really funny Julian Edleman moment happens at starting at about 7:11 - about 20 s worth.

[gameoverman]

To be fair, Ryan is a *very* experienced QB. I don't imagine that it would be easy to get in his head or confuse him.

Oh I'm not saying it'll be easy, or even possible, I'm just saying I think that's the Patriots' best chance.

[stessier]

Holy cow - Gostkoswki is on the injury report with a concussion.

Typo in the report I saw...just out with illness. Ebner has a concussion.

[Isgrimnur]

25 Super Bowls on YouTube

[Pyperkub]

Tom Brady has been in enough SBs that he's not going to get rattled mentally. They might sack him, they might force him to throw the ball away, but he won't lose focus. Ryan on the other hand, he's not quite there yet. That's why I think the Patriots' best strategy might be to do whatever they can to get in Ryan's head. They can't stop Jones, I'm sure of that, but Jones is a non factor if the quarterback is struggling. This is where coaching comes in, because what I'm thinking is more about confusing him and frustrating him rather than simply depending on a pass rush. Belichick needs to step up here.

He *may* not be there yet. That is TBD on Super Sunday, and is essentially the question of the day (as well as which team will be better at running the ball). Also, early turnovers will be huge if they happen - massive confidence boost for Atlanta if they get them, and horribly demoralizing if they cough it up.

[Apollo]

My dad called me tonight and told me about this website: http://www.footballofficialshop.us/

While the site looks legit, the prices on their NFL game jerseys seem way too good to be true. I'd like an opinion from some of you guys: Does this website look legit to you? I simply can't believe these low prices.

[EvilHomer3k]

Considering they have jerseys for the San Diego Chargers, no. There is no such team in the NFL. Also, the jerseys are all kinds of different colors. Most are not team colors. I doubt any are licensed by the NFL. Now, that doesn't mean you won't get your stuff. Just don't expect it to be the same quality you'd get from NFLShop.com (though it may not be terrible).

[Isgrimnur]

Scamvoid says that the site is <3 months old.

[stessier]

IP address says it is in Istanbul. I wouldn't trust it - no reason for the prices to be that low.