That is not dead which can eternal lie, and with strange aeons bring us some web forums whereupon we can gather
http://garbi.online/forum/
Why do you think he doesn't have a chance? All polling has it as a dead heat and Harrison out raised Graham almost 2:1.Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:07 am? You in SC now? Kudos and thanks in either case. I wish he had more of a chance.Ralph-Wiggum wrote:Jaime Harrison) horse:
We have our own Russian bot! It's so exciting.
Probably because it's South Carolina and Lindsey Graham, for all his flaws, is a Republican and not a credibly accused pedophile.stessier wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:26 amWhy do you think he doesn't have a chance? All polling has it as a dead heat and Harrison out raised Graham almost 2:1.Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:07 am? You in SC now? Kudos and thanks in either case. I wish he had more of a chance.Ralph-Wiggum wrote:Jaime Harrison) horse:
I'm still holding out hope. Harrison is running on the "Graham isn't the Graham you remember" platform and it's pretty easy to show how he's changed over the last 4 years.El Guapo wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:29 amProbably because it's South Carolina and Lindsey Graham, for all his flaws, is a Republican and not a credibly accused pedophile.stessier wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:26 amWhy do you think he doesn't have a chance? All polling has it as a dead heat and Harrison out raised Graham almost 2:1.Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:07 am? You in SC now? Kudos and thanks in either case. I wish he had more of a chance.Ralph-Wiggum wrote:Jaime Harrison) horse:
How much polling is there of the race? I suspect Harrison has a chance, but I'd be surprised if that chance was more than 10% - 20%. It's one of those situations where if Graham is in legit danger, then the GOP is probably getting blown out across the country.stessier wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:40 amI'm still holding out hope. Harrison is running on the "Graham isn't the Graham you remember" platform and it's pretty easy to show how he's changed over the last 4 years.El Guapo wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:29 amProbably because it's South Carolina and Lindsey Graham, for all his flaws, is a Republican and not a credibly accused pedophile.stessier wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:26 amWhy do you think he doesn't have a chance? All polling has it as a dead heat and Harrison out raised Graham almost 2:1.Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:07 am? You in SC now? Kudos and thanks in either case. I wish he had more of a chance.Ralph-Wiggum wrote:Jaime Harrison) horse:
South Carolina pollsEl Guapo wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:48 am
How much polling is there of the race? I suspect Harrison has a chance, but I'd be surprised if that chance was more than 10% - 20%. It's one of those situations where if Graham is in legit danger, then the GOP is probably getting blown out across the country.
I'm just saying what I heard on the news. This is the link to 538's rundown. Looks like it's been pretty consistent, although there's not many.El Guapo wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:48 amHow much polling is there of the race? I suspect Harrison has a chance, but I'd be surprised if that chance was more than 10% - 20%. It's one of those situations where if Graham is in legit danger, then the GOP is probably getting blown out across the country.stessier wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:40 amI'm still holding out hope. Harrison is running on the "Graham isn't the Graham you remember" platform and it's pretty easy to show how he's changed over the last 4 years.El Guapo wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:29 amProbably because it's South Carolina and Lindsey Graham, for all his flaws, is a Republican and not a credibly accused pedophile.stessier wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:26 amWhy do you think he doesn't have a chance? All polling has it as a dead heat and Harrison out raised Graham almost 2:1.Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:07 am? You in SC now? Kudos and thanks in either case. I wish he had more of a chance.Ralph-Wiggum wrote:Jaime Harrison) horse:
No - they could always blame it on Graham (unless all or most of the Republican Senate candidates saw a 10+ point drop in performance this time from last time)Scraper wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:56 am If Harrison wins in SC then the GOP is in bigger trouble than they realize. That would be the complete repudiation that Trumpism deserves. It means Trump would no doubt lose and the Senate would swing by more than the 3 needed for Dems to take over.
If Graham loses then (unless some unique Graham scandal develops before the election) then a lot of other GOP candidates are losing too. Likely maybe they drop a couple of the races in KS, TX, and GA, for example. So the story would then be about the GOP, rather than about Graham.Defiant wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:59 amNo - they could always blame it on Graham (unless all or most of the Republican Senate candidates saw a 10+ point drop in performance this time from last time)Scraper wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:56 am If Harrison wins in SC then the GOP is in bigger trouble than they realize. That would be the complete repudiation that Trumpism deserves. It means Trump would no doubt lose and the Senate would swing by more than the 3 needed for Dems to take over.
Yep! Moved here in March. Came for the job, stayed for the Covid hotspot.Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:07 am? You in SC now? Kudos and thanks in either case. I wish he had more of a chance.Ralph-Wiggum wrote:Jaime Harrison) horse:
Not a lot of polling, though. 538 is showing 6 polls since May, and half of those are partisan polls. Even if you average out what polls there are, it's probably at least a 3 or so point Graham lead. Not insurmountable, but enough for Graham to be a significant favorite.Defiant wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 11:10 am Yeah, it was polling that showed Trump doing better than Graham that made me think that Graham is potentially more vulnerable than other Senators
Joe Biden holds a 4-point lead over Donald Trump among all registered voters in Pennsylvania according to the Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll. Among likely voters, the race is a tight 1 to 3 points, depending on the expected turnout level. This shift from Biden’s larger lead just over six weeks ago is due to declining support for the challenger among men, voters under age 50, and voters in key swing counties.
Dogstar wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 12:05 pm According to Monmouth, the race tightens in my home state of Pennsylvania. This is down from his lead of +13 in July by Monmouth.
Joe Biden holds a 4-point lead over Donald Trump among all registered voters in Pennsylvania according to the Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll. Among likely voters, the race is a tight 1 to 3 points, depending on the expected turnout level. This shift from Biden’s larger lead just over six weeks ago is due to declining support for the challenger among men, voters under age 50, and voters in key swing counties.
85% Cynicismstessier wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:26 amWhy do you think he doesn't have a chance? All polling has it as a dead heat and Harrison out raised Graham almost 2:1.Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:07 am? You in SC now? Kudos and thanks in either case. I wish he had more of a chance.Ralph-Wiggum wrote:Jaime Harrison) horse:
I think sending in Obama would be a bad idea - I think that would strongly activate Republican partisanship, and if Graham holds onto Republican voters then he wins.Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 12:34 pm85% Cynicismstessier wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:26 amWhy do you think he doesn't have a chance? All polling has it as a dead heat and Harrison out raised Graham almost 2:1.Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:07 am? You in SC now? Kudos and thanks in either case. I wish he had more of a chance.Ralph-Wiggum wrote:Jaime Harrison) horse:
15% It's SC
FWIW I sent an email to the campaign telling/asking I want to help however I can, excepting a large cash donation (wish I was in a position to do that though, I'm sure they also need that). What he REALLY needs is a black super star to step up, come here and do a few stops in a few core black communities across the state to get the vote out (*cough* either Obama will do*cough*). He's going to need a massive black turnout to win I think.
Honestly though, I think I'm a bit broken, politically (locally) after Henry "Foghorn" McMaster won a second term.
Do you ever listen to the SC politics podcast called The Lede? Those are are political junkies, and I heard them (admittedly this was quite a while ago) talk about how the right in SC has traditionally hated Graham. I guess because he was too soft, not contentious enough, seemed to actually have some friends across the aisle, etc. But then when he transformed into political "Mr. Hyde" and hardened up his stance a bit, apparently his polling shot up. Their bottom line was, even when he was not liked at all, he still would have no serious D competition here. With this newer, nastier Graham who now apparently loves Trump, I am sure he's increased his R votes.
Or so I'd guess if you looked up who that IP is registered to. Also it's posst seem pretty well on topic to be a bot.ImLawBoy wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 12:05 pm Don't be so quick to cast aspersions. Its IP VPN info shows it's from Poland, not Russia.
Percentage points of the (national popular) vote. So a 3 point Biden win would be something like Biden 51% - Trump 48%, a 7 point win would be Biden 53% - Trump 46%, etc.Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 1:07 pm To clarify, what do "points" equate to when talking about the popular vote?
I haven't listened to The Lede. I do listen to Bakari Sellers (from The Ringer), so perhaps I'm swayed by his optimism. He thinks Harris as the VP will activate the Black communities which can't help but raise Harrison's chances. My biggest complaint with Harrison's campaign is the lack of details. He has general policy positions, but I'm curious about the how. Not that it matters, he's getting my vote regardless, but it would be nice if I could support him for good plans rather than just "not Graham."Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 12:34 pm85% Cynicismstessier wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:26 amWhy do you think he doesn't have a chance? All polling has it as a dead heat and Harrison out raised Graham almost 2:1.Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:07 am? You in SC now? Kudos and thanks in either case. I wish he had more of a chance.Ralph-Wiggum wrote:Jaime Harrison) horse:
15% It's SC
FWIW I sent an email to the campaign telling/asking I want to help however I can, excepting a large cash donation (wish I was in a position to do that though, I'm sure they also need that). What he REALLY needs is a black super star to step up, come here and do a few stops in a few core black communities across the state to get the vote out (*cough* either Obama will do*cough*). He's going to need a massive black turnout to win I think.
Honestly though, I think I'm a bit broken, politically (locally) after Henry "Foghorn" McMaster won a second term.
Do you ever listen to the SC politics podcast called The Lede? Those are are political junkies, and I heard them (admittedly this was quite a while ago) talk about how the right in SC has traditionally hated Graham. I guess because he was too soft, not contentious enough, seemed to actually have some friends across the aisle, etc. But then when he transformed into political "Mr. Hyde" and hardened up his stance a bit, apparently his polling shot up. Their bottom line was, even when he was not liked at all, he still would have no serious D competition here. With this newer, nastier Graham who now apparently loves Trump, I am sure he's increased his R votes.
Borders move all the time...
Source - Wikipedia (click to embiggen)Defiant wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 1:17 pm I'm a little skeptical of it, though. Gore won the popular vote by 0.5%, and the electoral result could have easily gone the other way (and even without it, he was only a couple of electoral votes shy) - has the electoral landscape (number of electoral votes in specific states, or the strengths and weaknesses of democrats in various states) changed that much in 20 years?
It's a reflection of the "tipping point" states (e.g., the states that would put Biden or Trump over the 270 electoral college majority threshold) having larger numbers of non-college educated white voters, which (especially in the Age of Trump) have migrated heavily towards Trump and the GOP.Defiant wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 1:17 pm I'm a little skeptical of it, though. Gore won the popular vote by 0.5%, and the electoral result could have easily gone the other way (and even without it, he was only a couple of electoral votes shy) - has the electoral landscape (number of electoral votes in specific states, or the strengths and weaknesses of democrats in various states) changed that much in 20 years?
I understand that logic, but it's simplistic and I don't think it plays that way in the real world. Candidates campaign differently in a tight race compared to a big lead (eg, more likely to focus on the tipping point states or states where they're barely underwater).El Guapo wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 1:26 pmIt's a reflection of the "tipping point" states (e.g., the states that would put Biden or Trump over the 270 electoral college majority threshold) having larger numbers of non-college educated white voters, which (especially in the Age of Trump) have migrated heavily towards Trump and the GOP.Defiant wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 1:17 pm I'm a little skeptical of it, though. Gore won the popular vote by 0.5%, and the electoral result could have easily gone the other way (and even without it, he was only a couple of electoral votes shy) - has the electoral landscape (number of electoral votes in specific states, or the strengths and weaknesses of democrats in various states) changed that much in 20 years?
You can also think about it this way - Biden's national vote lead (per 538) is currently +7.5. But his current lead in PA, FL, and AZ (likely tipping point states) is more like +4 to +4.5. That lead (which is a little over 3ish points lower) is really his 'true' lead, insofar as that's the lead that determines whether Biden is the next duly elected President under our rules.
So if Biden lost 5 points to Trump, he would still have a reasonable (though not ironclad) lead over Trump of ~ +2.5. But his 'lead' in the tipping point states is now probably slightly underwater (Trump lead of ~ 0.5ish). Hence Biden becomes a narrow underdog in the EC despite a clear but not decisive popular vote win.
To be clear, I understand the chance of winning to reflect odds of a win if the election were held today with various hypothetical popular vote result margins.Defiant wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 2:54 pmI understand that logic, but it's simplistic and I don't think it plays that way in the real world. Candidates campaign differently in a tight race compared to a big lead (eg, more likely to focus on the tipping point states or states where they're barely underwater).El Guapo wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 1:26 pmIt's a reflection of the "tipping point" states (e.g., the states that would put Biden or Trump over the 270 electoral college majority threshold) having larger numbers of non-college educated white voters, which (especially in the Age of Trump) have migrated heavily towards Trump and the GOP.Defiant wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 1:17 pm I'm a little skeptical of it, though. Gore won the popular vote by 0.5%, and the electoral result could have easily gone the other way (and even without it, he was only a couple of electoral votes shy) - has the electoral landscape (number of electoral votes in specific states, or the strengths and weaknesses of democrats in various states) changed that much in 20 years?
You can also think about it this way - Biden's national vote lead (per 538) is currently +7.5. But his current lead in PA, FL, and AZ (likely tipping point states) is more like +4 to +4.5. That lead (which is a little over 3ish points lower) is really his 'true' lead, insofar as that's the lead that determines whether Biden is the next duly elected President under our rules.
So if Biden lost 5 points to Trump, he would still have a reasonable (though not ironclad) lead over Trump of ~ +2.5. But his 'lead' in the tipping point states is now probably slightly underwater (Trump lead of ~ 0.5ish). Hence Biden becomes a narrow underdog in the EC despite a clear but not decisive popular vote win.
it could seriously be the most amazing and telling thing we ever get to see.
What scares me most is not the scenario in which Trump loses the popular vote by 0-1 or 1-2 or even 2-3 points and still wins the electoral college. We've been there, done that. I think he lost the popular vote to Hilary in 2016 by around 2 points.El Guapo wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 12:57 pm https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 1110341632
This is maddening - especially how Trump is a narrow favorite to win in a scenario where he loses the popular vote by 2-3 points.
At least we are currently in 99%+ territory.
I generally agree but I think even the 1st case - narrow popular vote win by Biden and EC win by Trump might be the last straw. Older folks might be normalized to that but we have a generation of young people who've grown up in one of the most polarized and economically unequal times in US history who are demanding change.Kurth wrote: Thu Sep 03, 2020 12:50 am
What scares me most is not the scenario in which Trump loses the popular vote by 0-1 or 1-2 or even 2-3 points and still wins the electoral college. We've been there, done that. I think he lost the popular vote to Hilary in 2016 by around 2 points.
The terrifying thing to me is if he does even worse in the popular vote this time around and still wins another four years in office. The outrage was strong in 2016 based on the popular vs. electoral college disparity and that just involved a situation where Hilary won around 3M more votes than Trump did and still lost. What happens if we're in the 3-4 or 4-5 point scenario Silver sets out? Trump still has a greater than 10% chance to win the electoral college and the presidency even if he suffers a popular vote loss to Biden that is more than double what it was to Hilary in 2016? That's probably something on the order of over 7M less votes for Trump than Biden.
I fear the country would explode.
As it should. In 2020 it’s a ridiculous, unfair, archaic system that was patched together to politically appease factions that don’t even exist anymore. Furthermore, one of the biggest arguments for implementing it, defense against a “populist president appealing directly to the people” has shown it to be ineffective.Kurth wrote:Trump still has a greater than 10% chance to win the electoral college and the presidency even if he suffers a popular vote loss to Biden that is more than double what it was to Hilary in 2016? That's probably something on the order of over 7M less votes for Trump than Biden.
I fear the country would explode.
I don't know man. I mean I really can't see Alexander Hamilton saying "Dudes". Everything else is spot on.Carpet_pissr wrote: Thu Sep 03, 2020 8:28 amAs it should. In 2020 it’s a ridiculous, unfair, archaic system that was patched together to politically appease factions that don’t even exist anymore. Furthermore, one of the biggest arguments for implementing it, defense against a “populist president appealing directly to the people” has shown it to be ineffective.Kurth wrote:Trump still has a greater than 10% chance to win the electoral college and the presidency even if he suffers a popular vote loss to Biden that is more than double what it was to Hilary in 2016? That's probably something on the order of over 7M less votes for Trump than Biden.
I fear the country would explode.
If we could revive the original drafters and give them an executive summary of the data on US geography and population in 2016, and show them what happened in that election, the first thing they would say: Ohhhhhhh blazes! You have elected a most reprehensible addle-pated beard splitter! Also, dudes, WHY ARE YOU STILL USING THAT?!? It was only meant to be a temporary compromise!
