Political Randomness

[Remus West]

As frustrating as it is to have all sorts of important and good ideas die in Joe Manchin's office, I really don't bear him any significant animus. The man has to represent West Virginia. Given that, he's shockingly progressive.

Rather, I save my animus for a political structure that gives West Virginia (pop. ~ 1.8 million) much more representation than Los Angeles County (pop. ~ 10 million). Hate the game not the player, I suppose.

If the US becomes a totalitarian Republican State then is he really serving the people of WV? His job is too look out for their best interests not pander to their wants in order to preserve his own job.

[ImLawBoy]

As frustrating as it is to have all sorts of important and good ideas die in Joe Manchin's office, I really don't bear him any significant animus. The man has to represent West Virginia. Given that, he's shockingly progressive.

Rather, I save my animus for a political structure that gives West Virginia (pop. ~ 1.8 million) much more representation than Los Angeles County (pop. ~ 10 million). Hate the game not the player, I suppose.

If the US becomes a totalitarian Republican State then is he really serving the people of WV? His job is too look out for their best interests not pander to their wants in order to preserve his own job.

And then he gets voted out next term for an R who may tip the balance of the Senate.

[Smoove_B]

And then he gets voted out next term for an R who may tip the balance of the Senate.

When he votes to approve Kavanaugh or against a federal minimum wage, what difference does it make?

[ImLawBoy]

And then he gets voted out next term for an R who may tip the balance of the Senate.

When he votes to approve Kavanaugh or against a federal minimum wage, what difference does it make?

Because if the Senate is nominally controlled by Ds, they at least control the process and will get some wins. If there's an R in his place, they get absolutely nothing.

[Smoove_B]

Right, on paper. But if he's unreliable in voting and vocally against what the D are currently trying to do...

[ImLawBoy]

Right, on paper. But if he's unreliable in voting and vocally against what the D are currently trying to do...

He's still better than having the Senate be 51-49 for the Rs. Even if he votes the R position every time (which he doesn't), he's still better than having an actual R there.

[Smoove_B]

Right, in terms of getting legislation to the floor. But in terms of it passing? The end result is the same if he's voting like a (R) on just about everything and cocking up the process.

[ImLawBoy]

I get that it feels that way, but it doesn't seem to be true. That was from when Trump was president, and it shows that he voted with Trump far more than one would expect from a D senator, but he voted with Ds at about the same rate, and far more frequently than one would expect given Trump's popularity in WV.

[El Guapo]

Right, in terms of getting legislation to the floor. But in terms of it passing? The end result is the same if he's voting like a (R) on just about everything and cocking up the process.

He's not voting like an R, though. He votes with Biden way more and voted with Trump way less than you would predict based on the partisanship of his state. He voted to confirm Biden's entire cabinet (except for Tanden, which was dumb but doesn't matter all that much). He voted for the $1.9B American Rescue Plan bill, which passed 51-50 in the Senate and which doesn't get the time of day if McConnell is running the chamber. He's voting to confirm Biden's judges.

Now, if Manchin prevents the passage of any voting protection bills or other measures (which he might), it may be that the rest of this doesn't matter all that much. If so I won't forgive him just because he enabled the passage of other Democratic priorities (even though he has). But it's simply not true that he's a "DINO" or what have you - arguably he's the most valuable Democrat in the Senate.

[Isgrimnur]

Senatorial BAM!

[malchior]

Right, in terms of getting legislation to the floor. But in terms of it passing? The end result is the same if he's voting like a (R) on just about everything and cocking up the process.

He's not voting like an R, though. He votes with Biden way more and voted with Trump way less than you would predict based on the partisanship of his state. He voted to confirm Biden's entire cabinet (except for Tanden, which was dumb but doesn't matter all that much). He voted for the $1.9B American Rescue Plan bill, which passed 51-50 in the Senate and which doesn't get the time of day if McConnell is running the chamber. He's voting to confirm Biden's judges.

Now, if Manchin prevents the passage of any voting protection bills or other measures (which he might), it may be that the rest of this doesn't matter all that much. If so I won't forgive him just because he enabled the passage of other Democratic priorities (even though he has). But it's simply not true that he's a "DINO" or what have you - arguably he's the most valuable Democrat in the Senate.

The last bit is the basis of my earlier take. He has already signaled that he won't address the filibuster, the balance of the Supreme Court, wants a constitutional amendment for DC statehood (how many states were admitted by amendment? The answer is zero), and essentially written off any of the desperately needed reforms to avert increasingly probable collapse into authoritarianism. But then again he has no real skin in the game. If he isn't a US Senator then he is still just a rich white guy.

I don't know with certainty if he sincerely holds the beliefs he espouses or they are some power play. I strongly suspect the latter but in the end he'll be fine. He could step up and apply pressure but he is just going along with the flow. Meanwhile, many people are in actual danger because he is blocking solutions. That is the basis of my animus for him. I'd love to be proved wrong but I have no reason to think it'll happen.

[Smoove_B]

I appreciate the voting records (and the BAM). I didn't do a deep dive through the actual votes and see if there's a pattern. If he votes like a Trumpaloo on really important things that impact all Americans I'm not sure if that counteracts (for me) when he votes like a (D) and it's benefiting his constituency.

And like malchior, it's the issues like voting rights and statehood that (for me) are critical *right now* as the GOP has made it clear they are doing everything they can to regain control in 2022 and 2024; lord help us all if they do.

If he's happy to sit on the sidelines and let that happen because he's ready to retire or it won't affect him when he does, then I have nothing good to say about him and I resent his attitude. We jumped from one precipice to another. I'm under no illusion that everything is super terrific now and if the Manchins of the world, wearing the (D) cloaks aren't actively working towards protecting democracy, then as far as I'm concerned they're working against it.

I don't mean for that to sound so dramatic, but there you go.

[malchior]

What a surprise!

https://twitter.com/LauraWalkerKC/statu ... 9981920258

[Kraken]

Do you live in a political bubble? Plug in your address and see how your 1,000 nearest neighbors identify.

I got: "Your neighbors are a pretty diverse bunch, politically. About 54 percent are Democrats, 44 percent are Republicans and 2 percent are independents." My town overall splits nearly 50/50, but "There’s a zip code three miles away from you where only 18 percent of the average Democrat's neighbors are Republicans." That's the town I lived in before moving here.

[Isgrimnur]

But then I live in Texas where housing costs when we bought were $88/sqft and are now estimated by Zillow () are now $149/sqft.

[Jaymann]

Do you live in a political bubble? Plug in your address and see how your 1,000 nearest neighbors identify.

I got: "Your neighbors are a pretty diverse bunch, politically. About 54 percent are Democrats, 44 percent are Republicans and 2 percent are independents." My town overall splits nearly 50/50, but "There’s a zip code three miles away from you where only 18 percent of the average Democrat's neighbors are Republicans." That's the town I lived in before moving here.

Paywall! You do realize that is how they find out where you live...

[gilraen]

"Many of your neighbors — 70 percent — are Democrats. You don't quite live in a bubble, but we wouldn't say your neighbors are politically diverse, either."

You wouldn't think that, considering the prevalence of Trump (and other Republican) yard signs, but apparently that just means that Democrats don't bother with yard signs

[Skinypupy]

56% Republican
10% Democrat
34% “Independent” (which translates to Mormons who always vote Republican but claim Independent because they didn’t care for Trump. SO many of those around here.)

Sounds about right.

[Smoove_B]

Way worse than I thought - I'm in a bubble for sure with only 23% of my neighbors as Democrats.

[LawBeefaroni]

You live in a Democratic bubble. Only 14 percent of your neighbors are Republicans.
You live in a state where people don't pick a political party when they register to vote. We’ve estimated your neighbors’ political parties based on their voting history and demographics.

[malchior]

-1% of my neighbors are Terrans apparently.

Your neighbors are a pretty diverse bunch, politically.

About 46 percent are Democrats, 55 percent are Republicans and -1 percent are independents.

[El Guapo]

Right, in terms of getting legislation to the floor. But in terms of it passing? The end result is the same if he's voting like a (R) on just about everything and cocking up the process.

He's not voting like an R, though. He votes with Biden way more and voted with Trump way less than you would predict based on the partisanship of his state. He voted to confirm Biden's entire cabinet (except for Tanden, which was dumb but doesn't matter all that much). He voted for the $1.9B American Rescue Plan bill, which passed 51-50 in the Senate and which doesn't get the time of day if McConnell is running the chamber. He's voting to confirm Biden's judges.

Now, if Manchin prevents the passage of any voting protection bills or other measures (which he might), it may be that the rest of this doesn't matter all that much. If so I won't forgive him just because he enabled the passage of other Democratic priorities (even though he has). But it's simply not true that he's a "DINO" or what have you - arguably he's the most valuable Democrat in the Senate.

The last bit is the basis of my earlier take. He has already signaled that he won't address the filibuster, the balance of the Supreme Court, wants a constitutional amendment for DC statehood (how many states were admitted by amendment? The answer is zero), and essentially written off any of the desperately needed reforms to avert increasingly probable collapse into authoritarianism. But then again he has no real skin in the game. If he isn't a US Senator then he is still just a rich white guy.

I don't know with certainty if he sincerely holds the beliefs he espouses or they are some power play. I strongly suspect the latter but in the end he'll be fine. He could step up and apply pressure but he is just going along with the flow. Meanwhile, many people are in actual danger because he is blocking solutions. That is the basis of my animus for him. I'd love to be proved wrong but I have no reason to think it'll happen.

Yeah, maybe the key difference is that I haven't given up yet on him allowing voting protection legislation to pass.

[malchior]

Yeah, maybe the key difference is that I haven't given up yet on him allowing voting protection legislation to pass.

Sure. But his behavior is beyond aggravating to me even if he suddenly decides to break his word on the filibuster. The reason the infrastructure bill is dragging out is mostly him. He demanded that Biden bring in the Republicans to sign on for 'bipartisanship'. The big problem? There is no treating with the goddamn enemies of democracy. I don't know if he lives in fantasyland or he is just that cynical but if we can't get voting reform then we need a red hot economy next year. Right now it should be anything it takes to save the country and he is a major roadblock to both paths and time is wasting. I don't know if he really is so self-involved that he thinks he will bridge the gap. In any case, his general behavior just doesn't make much sense without a dire read on his motives, intelligence, or grip on reality.

Edit: To give some credit to him though - if Manchin signs on despite a lack of Republican participation I'll give him a lot of credit because that'd just be good politics of the now. Biden got credit for trying to work with the Republicans in polling on the last pandemic bill. Apparently a lot of independents are still holding onto false hope that the Republican fever will break. You have to ride that for as long as you can to maintain some political capital but the risks of failure rise as time goes on and they lose momentum.

[coopasonic]

But then I live in Texas where housing costs when we bought were $88/sqft and are now estimated by Zillow () are now $149/sqft.

58% Republican here and I only live a few miles away from Isgrimnur.

[Octavious]

73 Republican. That's what I get for living in the sticks.

[Carpet_pissr]

But then I live in Texas where housing costs when we bought were $88/sqft and are now estimated by Zillow () are now $149/sqft.

I’m having trouble making the connection between real estate prices and political affiliation.

[ImLawBoy]

My political bubble has 6% Rs (that's all the breakdown it gives me).

[LordMortis]

Many of your neighbors — 64 percent — are Republicans. You don't quite live in a bubble, but we wouldn't say your neighbors are politically diverse, either. You live in a state where people don't pick a political party when they register to vote. We’ve estimated your neighbors’ political parties based on their voting history and demographics.

Sounds about right.

[Isgrimnur]

[Holman]

Many of your neighbors — 75 percent — are Democrats. You don't quite live in a bubble, but we wouldn't say your neighbors are politically diverse, either.

This doesn't surprise me, since my wife is all about GOTV work and knows the demographics very well. What's interesting is that the neighborhood has shifted Dem pretty dramatically over the past twenty years or so.

[hitbyambulance]

"Only 6 percent of your neighbors are Republicans." unsurprised

[Remus West]

I appreciate the voting records (and the BAM). I didn't do a deep dive through the actual votes and see if there's a pattern. If he votes like a Trumpaloo on really important things that impact all Americans I'm not sure if that counteracts (for me) when he votes like a (D) and it's benefiting his constituency.

And like malchior, it's the issues like voting rights and statehood that (for me) are critical *right now* as the GOP has made it clear they are doing everything they can to regain control in 2022 and 2024; lord help us all if they do.

If he's happy to sit on the sidelines and let that happen because he's ready to retire or it won't affect him when he does, then I have nothing good to say about him and I resent his attitude. We jumped from one precipice to another. I'm under no illusion that everything is super terrific now and if the Manchins of the world, wearing the (D) cloaks aren't actively working towards protecting democracy, then as far as I'm concerned they're working against it.

I don't mean for that to sound so dramatic, but there you go.

I'm right there with you and malchior. Voting D on minor issues that do nothing to protect from the assault on Democracy being launched by the Rep side makes him contemptible.

[Remus West]

Just like LB only I have fewer Republicans around me. Which I think they probably got wrong or I think of my neighborhood larger than they do as I see trump signs all over the place.

You live in a Democratic bubble. Only 13 percent of your neighbors are Republicans.
You live in a state where people don't pick a political party when they register to vote. We’ve estimated your neighbors’ political parties based on their voting history and demographics.

[YellowKing]

I got 60% Republican, which doesn't surprise me either. We're in a very diverse neighborhood - multiple ethnicities, multiple age groups, everything from single family to retirees. I'll give the 10% edge to the GOP from the fact I live in NC.

[Jaymon]

I am 50 and live in a suburb of Vancouver BC. I am getting my first shot tomorrow. Our government has failed pretty miserably. We outsourced our PPE and had massive supply problems last year. We outsourced our vaccine production and had massive supply problems this year. I hope we've learned our lesson that we can't rely on anyone else for mission critical infrastracture.

USA outsourced the presidency for 4 years, and had massive problems.

[Kurth]

I got:

Many of your neighbors — 69 percent — are Democrats. You don't quite live in a bubble, but we wouldn't say your neighbors are politically diverse, either.

That's about what I'd expect. But it's interesting to note that there are TOTAL bubbles in each direction within 10 miles of my zip code.

[Carpet_pissr]

You live in a small blue dot, surrounded by a raging red abyss of Republi... err, Trumpism. You are like the mayor of Whoville, yelling your head off to no avail, such is your insignificance in the face of such an overwhelmingly red state. In fact, why are you even doing this silly exercise in your situation?! Have you looked out your back window? That guy has a "Q" flag proudly flying. We're done here. And while you may live in a tiny blue Whoville dot, you are completely surrounded by Repu...Trumpsters in your neighborhood. ENJOY!"

[Daehawk]

DC comes across as a cesspool. If the politicians cant fuck it, snort it, drink it, or spend it then they dont give a fuck about it.

[Unagi]

I got 60% Republican, which doesn't surprise me either. We're in a very diverse neighborhood - multiple ethnicities, multiple age groups, everything from single family to retirees. I'll give the 10% edge to the GOP from the fact I live in NC.

What do you give the other 10% edge to?

[Ralph-Wiggum]

Anyone want to take a wild guess as to which neighborhood in my area has the crazily expensive houses in relatively new developments?