Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Smoove_B]

But the FAQ clearly states they're not harvesting DNA!

I'm guessing yes, it's related to funding (why it's free) and verifying ID. Normally they'd set up a pop-up clinic somewhere and offer them free for anyone that could show up. So they lower the barrier for entry by allowing you take it at home (good) but require a Zoom call (not good) to be in compliance with reimbursement / grant funding agreements.

They're trying, but I am guessing we're going to start seeing lots of stories about how the system (Zoom) is overwhelmed and people are getting disconnected, invalidating their ability to submit a test. Better would be to have some type of Uber partnership where someone shows up to your front door, has you spit in the cup and they drop off a whole bunch at a lab after collecting a few dozen in a specific neighborhood or region.

[Defiant]

Massachusetts will distribute more than 2 million at-home COVID-19 tests to some of the state's most vulnerable communities as the region braces for a winter spike in cases, Gov. Charlie Baker (R) said Monday.

Baker said his administration has secured 2.1 million over-the-counter rapid tests from iHealth Labs that will be delivered to the 100 towns with the highest percentage of families below the poverty level. Those municipalities account for nearly 3.7 million Massachusetts residents.

Massachusetts is paying $5 per test, and the tests come in packs of two.

Baker said the commonwealth is also finalizing plans to allow municipalities and other public entities to directly purchase tests from test manufacturers at fixed, state-negotiated prices beginning in Januar

Other states, including Colorado and neighboring New Hampshire, have also worked to distribute free rapid tests to residents. But rather than mailing tests to individuals, the free tests will be sent to cities and towns for distribution to the public.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watc ... ovid-tests

[Daveman]

So here in town they're putting the finishing touches on a "Christmas Village" that will have stalls for local vendors, food trucks, an ice skating rink, etc. Including several of these:



"glass dome igloos for folks to gather with a snack and warm beverage" Apparently you have to pay and reserve a time to use one. Since they went up we've been calling them "COVID-domes".

I almost want to go take photos of whoever is using them for posterity sake.

[Daehawk]

Its The Masque of the Red Death all over again in mini form. Gather, concentrate and spread.

[Smoove_B]

"glass dome igloos for folks to gather with a snack and warm beverage" Apparently you have to pay and reserve a time to use one. Since they went up we've been calling them "COVID-domes".

These were quite popular in our state last year and I am not aware of any outbreaks associated with them (amazingly). However, with Delta and Omicron? Hell to the no.

[Smoove_B]

Best concise summary I've seen of the current situation:

https://twitter.com/DrTomFrieden/status ... 9641815044

Breakthrough infections are expected, though Omicron seems to cause more than we've seen with earlier variants—severity of infection remains to be determined. The virus has adapted. We must adapt too by protecting ourselves better, including with vaccines, masks and ventilation.

[Smoove_B]

First I'm seeing - Cornell is having problems:

Cornell University is shutting down its Ithaca, New York, campus and moving to "alert level red" after what the school described as a "rapid spread" of Covid-19 among students.

There were 469 active student cases as of Tuesday afternoon, according to Cornell's online Covid dashboard, and an overall positivity rate of 3.01% for the week of December 6, among the students tested.

President Martha Pollack said that the university's Covid-19 lab team detected evidence of the Omicron variant "in a significant number of Monday's positive student samples."

From what I can tell, they had a vaccination mandate for students but staff were pushing back. There was also a mask mandate, but classrooms were at 100%.

[coopasonic]

First I'm seeing - Cornell is having problems:

Awesome. Cornell is about 25 miles from where most of my anti-mask, anti-vaxx family lives including my (vaccinated, but not boosted) 72 year old high risk mother. If Cornell has it, Ithaca has it, which means my family is getting it. Only 72 deaths in their county, most around the holidays last year.

[Smoove_B]

Yeah, I don't really know what to make of that story. It sounds...intense.

This is also something I'm just hearing about right now - and not from my own state but from a report on...The Today Show??

"New data out of the CDC today will demonstrate that we are now detecting it in our genomic surveillance here at the rate of about 3% across the nation and about 13% here in New Jersey and New York," Dr. Rochelle Walensky told Savannah Guthrie and Hoda Kotb.

13% of the tests in NY and NJ are now Omicron? That seems...not good.

[Smoove_B]

Oh, and it's happening at Harvard too:

https://twitter.com/baym/status/1470917928748994569

Harvard has been averaging 52 cases a week all semester. There were 46 yesterday alone. The 178 in the last week is 30% above the previous record. This really looks like the beginning of a major campus outbreak here too

I'd say...get ready to change whatever holiday plans you think you currently have. Things might get...nutty again.

[The Meal]

Non-sports followers wouldn't realize it, but all the active pro leagues right now are absolutely getting hammered with athletes testing positive. One wonders what results would look like if one were testing the genpop multiple times a week right now...

[malchior]

Oh, and it's happening at Harvard too:

https://twitter.com/baym/status/1470917928748994569

Harvard has been averaging 52 cases a week all semester. There were 46 yesterday alone. The 178 in the last week is 30% above the previous record. This really looks like the beginning of a major campus outbreak here too

I'd say...get ready to change whatever holiday plans you think you currently have. Things might get...nutty again.

My company really, really wanted an in-person NY office holiday party. We've hired hired hundreds of people in the last year who have never met each other. Apparently they worked hard on this and consulted with health experts to try to find a safe way to hold it. Yet, within the last week they made the decision to go virtual only in the face of what's happening. Almost within hours of my client cancelling on-site visits for the rest of the calendar year at least.

[stessier]

Non-sports followers wouldn't realize it, but all the active pro leagues right now are absolutely getting hammered with athletes testing positive. One wonders what results would look like if one were testing the genpop multiple times a week right now...

Yeah, the NFL only tests vaccinated players once a week and it was that group that appears to have been a major cause of this week's spike... Which doesn't bode well.

[LordMortis]

Local radio are also talking about hockey and basketball player spread. Locally the Red Wings have had players off and I want to say one of the NY basketball teams are running an 8 man roster right now.

[Zarathud]

My Ohio based law firm just cancelled its January firm retreat and all holiday parties. More than half of the lawyers are in Red States, so this is real enough. The calculation was the January event risked 25% of attendees having a significant risk of contracting COVID, which means real money lost.

[Roman]

My company instituted a mandatory 3 days in the office 2 days at home back in September.
They just rescinded that 'rule' for the remainder of the year based on case data here in Ontario AND the fact that Christmas and family get togethers are just around the corner. They want us to be safe for the Holidays.

I suspect that we are headed for another lockdown here either in Toronto OR Ontario with the #s of Omicron doubling every week.

[Remus West]

Local radio are also talking about hockey and basketball player spread. Locally the Red Wings have had players off and I want to say one of the NY basketball teams are running an 8 man roster right now.

The Lions had something like 8 players in CoVid protocol Sunday. After all the to-do around last year's season, I'm thinking this one is more in danger of cancelation due to virus.

[LordMortis]

We're still "if you can work from home, then work from home." I'm in the office 4 to 5 days a week.

[Remus West]

My Ohio based law firm just cancelled its January firm retreat and all holiday parties. More than half of the lawyers are in Red States, so this is real enough. The calculation was the January event risked 25% of attendees having a significant risk of contracting COVID, which means real money lost.

Glad they based it on money lost and not something silly like potential lives lost and damage to health. Sheesh.

[LordMortis]

Local radio are also talking about hockey and basketball player spread. Locally the Red Wings have had players off and I want to say one of the NY basketball teams are running an 8 man roster right now.

The Lions had something like 8 players in CoVid protocol Sunday. After all the to-do around last year's season, I'm thinking this one is more in danger of cancelation due to virus.

I thought the radio said flu.... I've watched one Lions game since two games in to "10 and 6 is not good enough" I was already taking back my Sundays most of the time before then but that was the end for me. I'll wait until the radio reports reason to watch again or they put together a string of wins before I have any interest of spending 4 hours of my TV time on them. Whichever comes first.

[Max Peck]

My company instituted a mandatory 3 days in the office 2 days at home back in September.
They just rescinded that 'rule' for the remainder of the year based on case data here in Ontario AND the fact that Christmas and family get togethers are just around the corner. They want us to be safe for the Holidays.

I suspect that we are headed for another lockdown here either in Toronto OR Ontario with the #s of Omicron doubling every week.

Whatever they decide to implement, they are signalling that it will be province-wide rather than sticking with the current regional approach.

Ontario reports 1,808 new COVID-19 cases ahead of expected announcement on booster shots

Ontario reported 1,808 new cases of COVID-19 on Wednesday, ahead of an expected announcement on booster shots from Premier Doug Ford.

Ford plans to hold a news conference on the topic at 2 p.m. ET, alongside Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Kieran Moore, Health Minister Christine Elliott and Solicitor General Sylvia Jones. You'll be able to watch it live in this story.

The announcement comes just days after people aged 50 and older became eligible for the third vaccine shots. On Tuesday, public health units collectively administered 108,579 booster doses.

Calls have been growing for the province to expand booster access further to the protect against the rapidly spreading Omicron variant.

Moore has said the variant will become dominant soon and all cases should be treated as Omicron going forward. A new report from Public Health Ontario found that an estimated 80 per cent of all new cases on Dec. 13 were caused by Omicron.

During a Tuesday news conference, Moore also said that he would make recommendations to Ford's government on provincewide policies that account for the unprecedented transmissibility of the variant.

Today's case count is the most on single day since May 21, during the third wave of the pandemic in Ontario, and marks a 79 per cent jump over Wednesday last week.

The seven-day average has risen to 1,514, and a 50 per cent increase over the same time last week. The metric is on pace to double every 12 days or so.

It would still be possible that some local public health units would impose measures that are even more restrictive than whatever the provincial policies establish as a baseline.

[Smoove_B]

The ghost of Christmas Future...

https://twitter.com/JeremyFarrar/status ... 2661021701

The UK has recorded the highest number of daily Covid-19 cases since the beginning of the pandemic, with 78,610 new cases on Wednesday.

Whatever variant is called response is: Public Health measures that work - Masks, Testing, Ventilation, Isolate if infected & support, Reduce mixing indoors when possible, Vaccination & Clinical Care. All countries please watch what is happening in SA & UK & use time to prepare

Should remember that UK has possibly the highest immunity of any country in the world (natural & vaccine) plus access boosters & the NHS. In countries with limited access to all the tools the impact will be far greater

Starting to see an uptick in the number of public health people across the spectrum suggesting maybe holiday gatherings (work, personal) and holiday related travel should not be happening based on what's being reported in the UK.

[stessier]

It's odd that we are seeing very little uptick here in South Carolina. Our other waves all started with charts that went vertical for weeks. We've seen a slight uptick since Thanksgiving, but it's already leveling off. It has been unseasonably warm here, though.

[ImLawBoy]

Friday can't come fast enough so that the kids are home for winter break. Actually, boy twin is already home because his class is quarrantining for 10 days based on a positive case in his class (and the period ends Saturday, so he's just doing remote school until next year). Girl twin is still going to school, though, despite frequent reports from the principal of another positive case at the school. Given that my oldest isn't fully vaccinated yet, we're still trying to be super careful.

[Zarathud]

My Ohio based law firm just cancelled its January firm retreat and all holiday parties. More than half of the lawyers are in Red States, so this is real enough. The calculation was the January event risked 25% of attendees having a significant risk of contracting COVID, which means real money lost.

Glad they based it on money lost and not something silly like potential lives lost and damage to health. Sheesh.

They didn’t, but it’s a sharp pivot from “Get back to the office 80%.” Many of my Ohio and Indiana partners have voice mail messages stating they are “open for business and ready to take your call.” As is the head of the Chicago office, so I know it’s the money cost that changed the tune.

[Zaxxon]

Devastating piece on Bloomberg by Drew Armstrong on the hospital situation in Kentucky.

Related Twitter thread:

https://twitter.com/ArmstrongDrew/statu ... 1068272652

[Ralph-Wiggum]

It's odd that we are seeing very little uptick here in South Carolina. Our other waves all started with charts that went vertical for weeks. We've seen a slight uptick since Thanksgiving, but it's already leveling off. It has been unseasonably warm here, though.

It seems like it is hitting the bigger cities first. I imagine we'll see our own spike soon into the new year if not before. Or maybe everyone here has already gotten Covid enough times that we're practically immune....

[Daehawk]

[Smoove_B]

An excellent summary update regarding a study that's about to be published:

https://twitter.com/roby_bhatt/status/1 ... 3576870912

Is Omicron intrinsically less severe than other variants? @BillHanage and I argue that it's still too early to say, despite what appear to be early signs of milder impact in SA than past waves.

Much of our case comes down to this figure

What they're trying to untangle is how severe Omicron is but they need to account for (1) vaccinated people (2) unvaccinated people that had prior COVID and (3) unvaccinated people that haven't had prior COVID.

In looking at the population of South Africa, there's a significant number of people in the #1 and #2 categories, so the initial observation that this is "mild" flows from the vaccinated and prior-exposure protection (from severe illness) that seems to afford.

In comparison, here in America, our #3 option is still large enough to be concerning, so how it starts to look here might be quite different in terms of hospitalizations and deaths.

Their whole point with this paper (I think) is that after 2+ years, modeling how new variants affect populations might start to become more difficult - particularly when variants emerge that have the ability to dismantle immune protections afforded by prior exposure or vaccinations.

Good times.

[stessier]

It's odd that we are seeing very little uptick here in South Carolina. Our other waves all started with charts that went vertical for weeks. We've seen a slight uptick since Thanksgiving, but it's already leveling off. It has been unseasonably warm here, though.

It seems like it is hitting the bigger cities first. I imagine we'll see our own spike soon into the new year if not before. Or maybe everyone here has already gotten Covid enough times that we're practically immune....

I was wondering that. I know at work the people getting it are the ones that had it early in the process and are still unvaccinated (because natural immunity, donchaknow).

[Smoove_B]

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1471250776966189062

New York reports 12,944 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since January, of which 5,084 are in New York City

The window to stop this from getting much, much worse is closing.

[noxiousdog]

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1471250776966189062

New York reports 12,944 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since January, of which 5,084 are in New York City

The window to stop this from getting much, much worse is closing.

While I think it's more likely than not that you're right, how much of this is just a Thanksgiving peak?

This time last year it peaked as well, went down a little and then had a Christmas spike. That was without any vaccines.

[Smoove_B]

This time last year it peaked as well, went down a little and then had a Christmas spike. That was without any vaccines.

The problem is, we don't know. So once again, sounding the alarm and asking for leaders to do *something* makes us sound like lunatics, but then when cases rise dramatically ~3 weeks from now, everyone is asking why we didn't do anything to stop it.

The best summary i saw today was someone suggesting we're more vaccinated than we were in December of 2020 but our collective behaviors are much, much worse - so the virus continues to spread unchecked.

If what is happening right now in the UK is going to hit us in 3 weeks? This winter is going to be a nightmare.

[malchior]

This time last year it peaked as well, went down a little and then had a Christmas spike. That was without any vaccines.

The problem is, we don't know. So once again, sounding the alarm and asking for leaders to do *something* makes us sound like lunatics, but then when cases rise dramatically ~3 weeks from now, everyone is asking why we didn't do anything to stop it. downplaying how bad it is and asking us do we really need to do more.

I don't know if more accurate but what it feels like to me.

[LordMortis]

From my very small window on the world, the people who have been FREEDOM all along are not changing. But the people who collectively gave up and said "Fuck it, I'm vaccinated. I can't live a life of masks, no travel, and no one feeding and entertaining me forever. If you haven't changed your tune by now, screw you. I'm invulnerable!" are beginning to retreat back in to a bit more caution. Of course, I say this when I am about to go to a restaurant for lunch. Man, I don't want to go. The biggest reason I was going to go was for my boss and she had a last minute family emergency call her away. I shloulda declined two weeks ago when it was suggested.

[Smoove_B]

but then when cases rise dramatically ~3 weeks from now, everyone is asking why we didn't do anything to stop it. downplaying how bad it is and asking us do we really need to do more.

I don't know if more accurate but what it feels like to me.

Yes, it's still being downplayed - it was from the start. Going back to that paper I linked yesterday, it's still probably too early to draw any specific conclusions about severity, especially about what it could look like here in America. But it would seem the media and the general population have latched on to "it's not as severe" and aren't letting go.

I was reminded of the Simpson's Paradox last night (Doh!)

https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1 ... 0042036230

For Omicron, we might be mixing two populations: immune (through vaccinations or natural immunity) vs. naive (ie they have neither). Maybe Omicron is *more lethal than Delta* for both groups.

But because those immune have grown dramatically since Delta, mixing both groups appears to lower fatality rates

[$iljanus]

I have a brother in law who subscribes to Omicron not being as severe along with the other ignorant beliefs about Covid which have been well discussed on this forum. The one thing that people of his ilk don’t understand is that when the virus is allowed to replicate and spread, that’s where the possibility of mutations come into play. This is why we are making our way through the Greek alphabet and just because the newest flavor “may” not send you to the hospital why would you think that future variations would be the same? But people stop listening after “not as severe” and go about their merry unvaccinated maskless way.

[Smoove_B]

Ed Yong has a new piece this morning and once again, he nailed it. As he notes, this winter was already going to be bad because of Delta, but now that Omicron is here? Likely much, much worse.

https://twitter.com/edyong209/status/14 ... 6495212547

I cannot stress this enough: The healthcare system cannot take any more. Don’t ask if Omicron will overwhelm it. It *is already overwhelmed.*

As one doc told me, “The level of care that we’ve come to expect in our hospitals no longer exists.” 7/

EDIT: And cases in NJ today just jumped to ~6300, a level we haven't seen since early January of 2021. Everything is fine.

[Zaxxon]

Gotta love the headline. Makes sense as a follow-up to the prior pieces in the series, but, like, of course America isn't ready. We're incapable of being ready, as we've amply demonstrated over the past two years.

[LordMortis]

But Florida is doing OK in these winter months, so everyone in the northern states are just doing it wrong. Look to them for how to be ready. Let people work. Unmask our kids. Birds aren't real.