Octopus Overlords

Oh yeah, FL is doing great.

Sure, it's not like earlier this summer, but the number of people I *still* see "bragging" about DeSantis and complaining that their own states aren't handling it the awesome way he did is really something.

Here you go - a perfect example why we're in so much trouble with COVID. The continued narrative that it's all about personal responsibility:

Ohio’s top health official said Thursday said that the state will continue to stress “personal responsibility” over issuing public health orders, mask mandates, curfews or any other potential statewide protections as the pandemic continues to batter the Buckeye state at near record numbers.

Instead of making policy decisions that affect communities and populations, they're pushing it on everyone and hoping for the best. It hasn't worked in 2+ years, but let's keep telling people it's their own fault and they are all single-handedly responsible for their own health.

I'd seen some speculation earlier this week that one of the reasons that the information related to airborne spread of COVID has been largely suppressed is because it changes the narrative for how to deal with all this. Currently, vaccinations are being promoted as THE single way to deal with it and that we as individuals all need to step up and get vaccinated. However, if we are to accept that the virus is truly airborne (and again, all evidence suggests that being true) then it's now incumbent on governments and businesses to figure out how to protect the air we are all sharing - and that's a totally different argument and a much more expensive proposition.

So instead, double-down on "personal responsibility" and we'll just somehow learn to accept a thousand or so daily deaths until it gets better.

The other thing that makes me mad about the "personal responsibility" narrative is that it ignores a large number of people who don't have the capabilty to be personally responsible for themselves - namely the very elderly and children.

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Dec 16, 2021 3:14 pm

So instead, double-down on "personal responsibility" and we'll just somehow learn to accept a thousand or so daily deaths until it gets better.

New normal.

Well them now saying to not get the J&J vaccine is totally going to help things get better. SEE WE TOLD YOU THIS ISN'T SAFE. SHEEPPPPPPPPPP

Octavious wrote: Thu Dec 16, 2021 6:14 pm SHEEPPPPPPPPPP

How is that pronounced?

Sheep with the raspberry at the end.

https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/statu ... 9466909699

Covid cases are going vertical in NYC.

Positivity has doubled in past 3 days, something we've never seen before here in whole pandemic (h/t
@DrJayVarma)

Hospitalizations are also increasing rapidly.

NYC is heading into a perfect storm.

All of us need to do more to stay safe.

When he says "all of us" he means government and elected officials, right?

Prediction - the airline industry announces on Monday that they're in big trouble - cannot meet holiday travel demand because pilots, airline staff, etc... are all sick.

I'd seen some speculation earlier this week that one of the reasons that the information related to airborne spread of COVID has been largely suppressed is because it changes the narrative for how to deal with all this. Currently, vaccinations are being promoted as THE single way to deal with it and that we as individuals all need to step up and get vaccinated. However, if we are to accept that the virus is truly airborne (and again, all evidence suggests that being true) then it's now incumbent on governments and businesses to figure out how to protect the air we are all sharing - and that's a totally different argument and a much more expensive proposition.

https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1444293967806410755

https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1444293967806410755

I am going to try and use "air is the new poop" at least once a week in conversations -- thanks.

Are you telling me I shouldn't go on the annual Christmas booze crawl with 20 or so fellows from the neighborhood? Can I go to the private club and drink a bottle of scotch alone in the corner?






Again?

Oh, and serious question. We have a weekly rental of an indoor soccer pitch throughout winter. It is a massive dome with several pitches and positive pressure. 100,000 square feet. We play 5 v 5 on one of the smaller pitches.

I haven't been since we started this month but I'm free the next few weeks. Bad idea? We played outdoor throughout the summer and fall.

There was a study out of Germany last year that tried to quantify risk in all different levels of soccer play (outdoor), and they found no transmission. However, that was likely with the original strain - not Delta and certainly not Omicron. The equation has changed. I don't think I'd be worried about the indoor risk there as much as I would be concerned about close contact and breathing heavy.

Have you considered playing in an NBC suit?

Just seeing this 60 minute podcast from Dr. Osterholm.

Spoiler - he is predicting a crisis at levels we have yet to experience so far in the pandemic. He is a trusted, respected voice so for him to just toss this out there is...concerning. He sounds genuinely worried.

In "A Viral Blizzard," Dr. Osterholm and host Chris Dall discuss the newest Omicron data, the crisis happening in hospitals across the US, the viral battle occurring between the Omicron and Delta variants, and the importance of booster doses.

Masking rose to maybe 20% of grocery shoppers today, which still isn't nearly enough to matter but indicates that some sense of emergency is finally starting to filter down. The other 80% either aren't paying attention or don't care.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Dec 16, 2021 10:10 pm Oh, and serious question. We have a weekly rental of an indoor soccer pitch throughout winter. It is a massive dome with several pitches and positive pressure. 100,000 square feet. We play 5 v 5 on one of the smaller pitches.

I haven't been since we started this month but I'm free the next few weeks. Bad idea? We played outdoor throughout the summer and fall.

I can't answer your question, but what an awesome facility.

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Dec 16, 2021 9:27 pm Prediction - the airline industry announces on Monday that they're in big trouble - cannot meet holiday travel demand because pilots, airline staff, etc... are all sick.

That would really, really suck. My family is scheduled to fly cross country to Florida on Tuesday to be with family for the holidays. I certainly hope your prediction doesn’t come to pass.

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Dec 16, 2021 10:50 pm

Spoiler - he is predicting a crisis at levels we have yet to experience so far in the pandemic. He is a trusted, respected voice so for him to just toss this out there is...concerning. He sounds genuinely worried.

In "A Viral Blizzard," Dr. Osterholm and host Chris Dall discuss the newest Omicron data, the crisis happening in hospitals across the US, the viral battle occurring between the Omicron and Delta variants, and the importance of booster doses.

Not to go full Drazzil, but at this point, I say "bring it on". The majority seems so selfish, so maybe when it finally impacts everyone personally, then perhaps we can see some meaningful change. Hopefully, we can then close that barn door before the horse gets fully away from us and everything collapses. I swear, before the administration of he-who-shall-not-be-named, I was an optimistic person!

YellowKing wrote: Thu Dec 16, 2021 4:43 pm The other thing that makes me mad about the "personal responsibility" narrative is that it ignores a large number of people who don't have the capabilty to be personally responsible for themselves - namely the very elderly and children.

Not just the elderly and children.

Formix wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 7:12 amNot to go full Drazzil, but at this point, I say "bring it on". The majority seems so selfish, so maybe when it finally impacts everyone personally, then perhaps we can see some meaningful change.

I think we lack the capacity for this level of introspection. It'd realistically just devolve into endless rounds of finger pointing and banking political advantage.

I swear, before the administration of he-who-shall-not-be-named, I was an optimistic person!

This isn't a jab at you but we need to move beyond optimism versus pessimism. We're at the point where this type of analysis is simply about facing current realities. We are almost always talking not about optimal paths but instead ways to limit damage. It stems from our systemic political dysfunction.

For example, I'd love to hear Smoove_B's impression but it seems that NJ is acting (pretending?) like omicron isn't going to be a problem. NY has responded with more controls. Philly area also stepped up more controls. I was reading the local coverage talking about a 191% increase in positivity on COVID test results month-over-month yet it barely mentions omicron and there are no controls discussions. Meanwhile, NYC and nationwide coverage is talking about how omicron is at perhaps 13% of cases already.

They seem to be channeling the Biden administration 'get vaccinated' as the only approach. On top we're seeing moves to loosen controls such as reducing the quarantine period for schools. If it gets bad here, it seems our knucklehead Governor is going to be caught out on it. What's weirder yet is the few insights into his thinking seem to say he is acting slowly because he doesn't want to lose the election he just won. It's looking pretty bizarre.

Formix wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 7:12 am Not to go full Drazzil, but at this point, I say "bring it on". The majority seems so selfish, so maybe when it finally impacts everyone personally, then perhaps we can see some meaningful change.

From a very small sample size, this does not appear to be the case. There are various level of response. Some more reasonable than others. Some more defiant, but none result in vaccination.

My pleas often center on getting our medical care under control. To provide relief to our hospital systems, aka staff. But there is a short circuit. And the plea never lands.

I swear, before the administration of he-who-shall-not-be-named, I was an optimistic person!

I wasn't optimistic but I wasn't so fatalist or felt such a continuing sense of desperation either.

The Meal wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 8:01 am Not just the elderly and children.

Amen, every time I turn around they talk about more findings in reduced efficacy in compromised immune systems. Gottlieb was on this morning (The same guy who said the holiday season wave would small and we shouldn't let it control us) suggesting monoclonal antibodies start being used as a prophylactic for those with evidence that their immune systems are too weak to be helped by the vaccine.

Dr. Anthony Fauci said not all COVID tests are picking up Omicron infections. “We’re getting preliminary information that not all of the diagnostic tests will be accurate with Omicron,” said the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and the chief medical adviser to President Joe Biden.

“Some, and many of the commonly used ones, appear to pick up and detect Omicron quite well,” Fauci said during a U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation webinar. “We're in the process of doing large screenings to determine which of these antigen, point-of-care rapid tests still maintain their accuracy of diagnosis. But clearly there are some that do. We're trying to find out those that don't reflect an accurate result, and if we do, then to make sure that those tests are not used to diagnose Omicron."

https://fortune.com/2021/12/16/fauci-co ... -holidays/

Had the discussion with the wife that we may have to cancel travel plans. Again. I'm not really worried about ourselves or the kids so much as her parents and mine. OTOH, everyone else is still going so does it really matter? Guess we just don't want to have to worry about contributing to risk. We've loaded up on test kits just in case we do decide to make the drive(s).

malchior wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 8:55 am For example, I'd love to hear Smoove_B's impression but it seems that NJ is acting (pretending?) like omicron isn't going to be a problem. NY has responded with more controls. Philly area also stepped up more controls. I was reading the local coverage talking about a 191% increase in positivity on COVID test results month-over-month yet it barely mentions omicron and there are no controls discussions. Meanwhile, NYC and nationwide coverage is talking about how omicron is at perhaps 13% of cases already.

I cannot explain what is happening in NJ. It feels very much like March of 2020 where the governor more or less let each county and town do what they wanted and since none of them are pushing for masking indoors, then I guess we're all good.

EDIT: Here's a perfect example - Hoboken just passed a mandate that all bars will now need to check vaccination status for Santacon. They did this yesterday, giving the bars 2 whole days to figure this out. Instead of this coming from the State of NJ for all restaurants earlier this month or *gasp* way back in September, a town is scrambling to figure out something to try and stem what will likely be a superspreading event.

In truth, I believe there's a secret number of hospitalizations that is going to kick him into action (somehow). At that point, it will be too late (of course), but until the hospitals are red-lining, my feeling is he seems content to just let it all happen.

I am waiting to see what the numbers in our state look like today and possibly over the weekend. I can't help but shake the idea we're going to blow right through our previous record of new cases.

Kurth wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 4:05 am That would really, really suck. My family is scheduled to fly cross country to Florida on Tuesday to be with family for the holidays. I certainly hope your prediction doesn’t come to pass.

I'm feeling pretty confident we'll all know what's happening with the airlines on Sunday or Monday of this coming week. My general impression is they were barely keeping it together already. If cases are really surging now, I am not sure how they won't be impacted.

The vague sense I get from my work as an internet-certified COVID expert is that in terms of protection from Omicron it's something like (from most to least protected): vaccinated + boostered --> vaccinated (unboostered) --> unvaccinated but previously infected. Is that right?

Feels like those who are vaccinated have some protection but diminished, but it feels like those with prior infections and no vaccines are almost the same as people who are unvaccinated without a prior infection.

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 10:19 am

Kurth wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 4:05 am That would really, really suck. My family is scheduled to fly cross country to Florida on Tuesday to be with family for the holidays. I certainly hope your prediction doesn’t come to pass.

I'm feeling pretty confident we'll all know what's happening with the airlines on Sunday or Monday of this coming week. My general impression is they were barely keeping it together already. If cases are really surging now, I am not sure how they won't be impacted.

Is this based on conversations with airline people or more of a gut feeling + combination with how infectious omicron is?

Just had an in-person meeting with someone that was coughing the entire time.

Fortunately, we were all masked and I was ~ 20 feet away, but still was pretty concerning. I would definitely not be feeling too great if I were one of the six or seven people sitting closer to her...

El Guapo wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 11:51 am Feels like those who are vaccinated have some protection but diminished, but it feels like those with prior infections and no vaccines are almost the same as people who are unvaccinated without a prior infection.

I think what keeps getting lost in the mix here is what we mean when we say "mild illness". Basically, are you in the hospital? No? Then it's mild. Mild doesn't mean, "I feel a little tired" or "I have the sniffles". So the spectrum of illness for people is going to be highly varied and a percentage of people with "mild" illness are going to go to an ER or a clinic because they feel like they're going to die and a small % of that group will actually be admitted to the hospital. The rest will be sent home, hopefully by someone that was able to quickly tell that they didn't need to be hospitalized. Or that they weren't bad enough to be hospitalized.

And with that, if vaccinated/boosted/prior infection combo people are now getting sick again with "mild" illness because Omicron can break through their immune protections, that's concerning. Not because of deaths, but because our medical system cannot handle a surge in people that need to be triaged. Above and beyond that, dealing with car accidents, stabbings, gunshot wounds, etc... I've already seen more than a few nurses saying they're not coming out of retirement or taking up extra shifts to deal with whatever is about to happen - they're done. Some might say it's overblown, but they've been doing this for 2+ years now and even with a vaccine it's just as bad (arguably about to get worse) than it was exactly a year ago.

Ed Yong wrote another amazing piece this morning on how he's cancelled his birthday party because of Omicron. And in it, he reveals his thought process - how he arrived at that decision. In short, he's trying to make sure he isn't the reason someone else gets sick - either directly or because he encouraged a gathering of people while a highly communicable immune-evading virus is in high circulation. Again, it's not always about how you think you're going to react. My MIL has zero concern for herself as she continues to travel by air, eat in restaurants, vacation, etc... And she might be right - maybe her immune system and vaccinations are going to keep her from being hospitalized. But it doesn't mean she can't carry and spread the virus to others.

What I'm saying here is that there are going to be some tough phone calls for Xmas.

El Guapo wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 11:52 am Is this based on conversations with airline people or more of a gut feeling + combination with how infectious omicron is?

No direct knowledge. Chatter and gut feeling.

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:04 pm My MIL has zero concern for herself as she continues to travel by air, eat in restaurants, vacation, etc... And she might be right - maybe her immune system and vaccinations are going to keep her from being hospitalized. But it doesn't mean she can't carry and spread the virus to others.

What I'm saying here is that there are going to be some tough phone calls for Xmas.

I think I said it above, I'm not so worried about myself, the wife, or kids but I don't want to be a vector bringing it to vulnerable relatives. In a way it is selfish guilt avoidance. Making the trip is going to be wrought with constant risk analyses and potential feelings of regret is anyone gets sick. I'm saying, let's avoid that and just stay home. Which makes me look like a jerk.

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:04 pm

El Guapo wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 11:52 am Is this based on conversations with airline people or more of a gut feeling + combination with how infectious omicron is?

No direct knowledge. Chatter and gut feeling.

They seem to be doubling down and looking to increase MAGA ridership.

The chief executive officers of two major airlines have questioned the need for mask mandates on planes — insisting that face coverings “don’t add much” to the safety of flying amid the pandemic.

“I think the case is very strong that masks don’t add much, if anything, in the air cabin environment. It is very safe and very high quality compared to any other indoor setting,” the CEO of Southwest Airlines, Gary Kelly, told lawmakers during a congressional hearing Wednesday.

“I concur,” Doug Parker, the head of the country’s largest airline, American Airlines, added.

“An aircraft is the safest place you can be. It’s true of all of our aircraft — they all have the same HEPA filters and airflow.”

It's a concerted effort.

Is there anything to that, though? I find it very hard to believe that masks don't make people safer on planes, and that the cost-benefit analysis of just wearing a damn mask for the flight doesn't tilt in favor of requiring masks.

That said, I don't know much about air filtration on planes but I think it's credible that it's probably very good, and so it's plausible to me that masks don't add huge additional protection on planes.

The issue isn't the planes and whether or not pilots or staff are safe on them. The issue is that pilots and staff (like everyone else) are out doing things while not working - eating in restaurants, going to bars, attending parties, etc... all while being unmasked. If Dave from accounting gets COVID-19 from bar hopping with his buddies, no big deal. If your three pilots that run major legs between Chicago and NYC get COVID-19 from hanging out at bars and restaurants while waiting for their next assignment? Now you have a problem.

Latest direct quotes from the CDC director:

https://twitter.com/LauraSanthanam/stat ... 3414070277

Q: Is it safe for friends and families to gather?
A from @CDCDirector
: "We're in a very different place this year than last year."
- Get vax'd and boosted (if eligible)
- Mask indoors
- Test and make sure you're negative before mixing households.

Good luck getting tests.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:26 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:04 pm My MIL has zero concern for herself as she continues to travel by air, eat in restaurants, vacation, etc... And she might be right - maybe her immune system and vaccinations are going to keep her from being hospitalized. But it doesn't mean she can't carry and spread the virus to others.

What I'm saying here is that there are going to be some tough phone calls for Xmas.

I think I said it above, I'm not so worried about myself, the wife, or kids but I don't want to be a vector bringing it to vulnerable relatives. In a way it is selfish guilt avoidance. Making the trip is going to be wrought with constant risk analyses and potential feelings of regret is anyone gets sick. I'm saying, let's avoid that and just stay home. Which makes me look like a jerk.

I don't understand this. Why not leave it up to your relatives and allow them to make that risk calculation for themselves?

For me, my family in Florida includes my parents and my sister and her husband and three kids. My parents are both approaching 80, and my father has dealt with multiple bouts of lymphoma in the past. They're both fully vaccinated and boostered, and their take is, how many more Christmas's do we realistically have left? We've already missed too much due to COVID. We've all taken reasonable precautions, so let's be together this holiday season.

My sister and brother-in-law are fully vaccinated and boostered, but my nieces and nephew are too young to get the shot. All three of them have already had COVID once and were totally asymptomatic. My sister is an ER doc in a very large hospital in Jacksonville. Her take is that the additional risk from our family flying in to visit them is minimal given her job and the fact that COVID really doesn't pose much of a risk to young kids anyway.

I think it's all dependent on your personal situation, but I wouldn't let guilt keep me apart from the people I want to spend the holidays with unless that was what they wanted based on their own risk analysis.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:26 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:04 pm

El Guapo wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 11:52 am Is this based on conversations with airline people or more of a gut feeling + combination with how infectious omicron is?

No direct knowledge. Chatter and gut feeling.

They seem to be doubling down and looking to increase MAGA ridership.

The chief executive officers of two major airlines have questioned the need for mask mandates on planes — insisting that face coverings “don’t add much” to the safety of flying amid the pandemic.

“I think the case is very strong that masks don’t add much, if anything, in the air cabin environment. It is very safe and very high quality compared to any other indoor setting,” the CEO of Southwest Airlines, Gary Kelly, told lawmakers during a congressional hearing Wednesday.

“I concur,” Doug Parker, the head of the country’s largest airline, American Airlines, added.

“An aircraft is the safest place you can be. It’s true of all of our aircraft — they all have the same HEPA filters and airflow.”

It's a concerted effort.

This is the kind of thing that makes me scratch my head. Is it really "doubling down and looking to increase MAGA ridership" for an airline CEO to suggest that masks on planes may not be necessary at this point due to the filtering and airflow systems on the aircraft? I don't know if that's right or wrong, but I think it's BS to assume that it's motivated or informed by politics. To me, that's such a great example of the tribalism that is destroying this country and, at least in part, has fueled some of the stupid policy decisions we see at all levels of government in terms of how we respond to COVID.

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 1:08 pm Latest direct quotes from the CDC director:

https://twitter.com/LauraSanthanam/stat ... 3414070277

Q: Is it safe for friends and families to gather?
A from @CDCDirector
: "We're in a very different place this year than last year."
- Get vax'd and boosted (if eligible)
- Mask indoors
- Test and make sure you're negative before mixing households.

Good luck getting tests.

Is there a shortage? Is it a regional thing? I was in the Walgreens here outside of Portland yesterday, and there were like 200 of them stacked up in the front of the store. I asked why they were all there, and they told me they ran out of room for them in the back.

Also, my company is giving out tests on demand, both in person on campus and the PCH kind you can take home and do yourself. There certainly doesn't seem to be a shortage out here.

Kurth wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 1:19 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:26 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:04 pm My MIL has zero concern for herself as she continues to travel by air, eat in restaurants, vacation, etc... And she might be right - maybe her immune system and vaccinations are going to keep her from being hospitalized. But it doesn't mean she can't carry and spread the virus to others.

What I'm saying here is that there are going to be some tough phone calls for Xmas.

I think I said it above, I'm not so worried about myself, the wife, or kids but I don't want to be a vector bringing it to vulnerable relatives. In a way it is selfish guilt avoidance. Making the trip is going to be wrought with constant risk analyses and potential feelings of regret is anyone gets sick. I'm saying, let's avoid that and just stay home. Which makes me look like a jerk.

I don't understand this. Why not leave it up to your relatives and allow them to make that risk calculation for themselves?

For me, my family in Florida includes my parents and my sister and her husband and three kids. My parents are both approaching 80, and my father has dealt with multiple bouts of lymphoma in the past. They're both fully vaccinated and boostered, and their take is, how many more Christmas's do we realistically have left? We've already missed too much due to COVID. We've all taken reasonable precautions, so let's be together this holiday season.

My sister and brother-in-law are fully vaccinated and boostered, but my nieces and nephew are too young to get the shot. All three of them have already had COVID once and were totally asymptomatic. My sister is an ER doc in a very large hospital in Jacksonville. Her take is that the additional risk from our family flying in to visit them is minimal given her job and the fact that COVID really doesn't pose much of a risk to young kids anyway.

I think it's all dependent on your personal situation, but I wouldn't let guilt keep me apart from the people I want to spend the holidays with unless that was what they wanted based on their own risk analysis.

They can make their own decisions but they're all based on imperfect information. Like I said, its probably partially selfish motivation to avoid guilt.

Kurth wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 1:19 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:26 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:04 pm

El Guapo wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 11:52 am Is this based on conversations with airline people or more of a gut feeling + combination with how infectious omicron is?

No direct knowledge. Chatter and gut feeling.

They seem to be doubling down and looking to increase MAGA ridership.

The chief executive officers of two major airlines have questioned the need for mask mandates on planes — insisting that face coverings “don’t add much” to the safety of flying amid the pandemic.

“I think the case is very strong that masks don’t add much, if anything, in the air cabin environment. It is very safe and very high quality compared to any other indoor setting,” the CEO of Southwest Airlines, Gary Kelly, told lawmakers during a congressional hearing Wednesday.

“I concur,” Doug Parker, the head of the country’s largest airline, American Airlines, added.

“An aircraft is the safest place you can be. It’s true of all of our aircraft — they all have the same HEPA filters and airflow.”

It's a concerted effort.

This is the kind of thing that makes me scratch my head. Is it really "doubling down and looking to increase MAGA ridership" for an airline CEO to suggest that masks on planes may not be necessary at this point due to the filtering and airflow systems on the aircraft? I don't know if that's right or wrong, but I think it's BS to assume that it's motivated or informed by politics. To me, that's such a great example of the tribalism that is destroying this country and, at least in part, has fueled some of the stupid policy decisions we see at all levels of government in terms of how we respond to COVID.

Sure, some hyperbole.
But people that refuse to wear masks cannot fly. Or they can try to and get banned. People that refuse to wear masks tend to lean one way politically. It stands to reason that eliminating a zero-cost, albeit uncertain, safety measure is a calculated move to access more customers and they are mostly of one political persuasion. Plus they're grandstanding at congressional hearings. Does it get more political?

El Guapo wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:33 pm That said, I don't know much about air filtration on planes but I think it's credible that it's probably very good, and so it's plausible to me that masks don't add huge additional protection on planes.

Some of the OG outbreaks occurred on aircraft, with no masks and long before Alpha/Delta/Omicron kept ratcheting up transmissibility.

Example: Single plane passenger infected 15 people with Covid-19, study finds

A single passenger spread Covid-19 to 15 other people aboard a flight from London to Hanoi, Vietnam, according to a study published Friday by the Emerging Infectious Diseases journal, which is published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Researchers from Vietnam's National institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology identified a 27-year-old woman from Vietnam who had a sore throat and a cough before the flight as the source of the outbreak. Twelve passengers in business class and two in economy, as well as a crew member, were infected on the March 1 flight, the study says.

It seems probable that masks will make a difference, assuming they are good masks and are worn properly.

What about all the people that dutifully wear their masks as required but would really rather not? Having just traveled for business last week, wearing that mask for six+ hours on the plane fucking sucked.

If they really aren't adding significantly to our efforts to combat COVID, I'd be psyched to not have to wear one.

El Guapo wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 11:51 am The vague sense I get from my work as an internet-certified COVID expert is that in terms of protection from Omicron it's something like (from most to least protected): vaccinated + boostered --> vaccinated (unboostered) --> unvaccinated but previously infected. Is that right?

IIUC, it's something like:

Vaccinated + Booster - pretty well protected

Previously infected (protection from infection is ~40%, although it could depend on *which* strain you got before. )

Vaccinated (Protection from infection is ~33%, protection from serious illness is ~70%)

Unvaccinated.

There's obviously plenty of other scenarios (infected + a shot, various different vaccines, etc) and lots of unknowns.