Octopus Overlords

In case anyone was wondering how bad this is going to get:

https://twitter.com/haithamahmedmd/stat ... 6199947289

CDC just issued guidelines that infected health workers in a staffing crisis can keep working if symptoms are mild (ie still contagious).

I dont understand. If you want staff to keep infecting others rather than recovering themselves, just say that. WHY ISSUE GUIDELINES AT ALL?!

Zaxxon wrote: Fri Dec 24, 2021 8:14 am

Grifman wrote: Fri Dec 24, 2021 2:12 am My brother just got notification that he has been exposed to covid by a co-worker while working out of town in Atlanta. Assuming he's not infected, he'll still miss Christmas with our family, stuck in his apartment in Atlanta as he has to quarantine himself until Monday. Such is life in the time of covid. I just hope he's ok, so far no symptoms.

Sending positive vibes your way.

Thanks but now he has Covid - has the symptoms this morning. But further positive vibes appreciated.

dbt1949 wrote:I like how the head of WHO is complaining that the "rich" countries vaccinating are going to prolong the pandemic.
It seems by doing this we're not giving the poorer countries enough vaccine, thus prolonging the pandemic.
I hate Trump with every fiber of my being but he was right in dropping out of WHO.

But the WHO is not wrong. In a globally connected world, it doesn’t matter if everyone over here is vaccinated, but most people over there aren’t. Over there is where the variants will develop that evade our vaccines over here.

Sorry to hear Grifman, Godspeed to your brother.

RunningMn9 wrote: Fri Dec 24, 2021 12:04 pm Sorry to hear Grifman, Godspeed to your brother.

Thanks, he's been boosted so we are hoping for the best.

RunningMn9 wrote: Fri Dec 24, 2021 12:03 pm

dbt1949 wrote:I like how the head of WHO is complaining that the "rich" countries vaccinating are going to prolong the pandemic.
It seems by doing this we're not giving the poorer countries enough vaccine, thus prolonging the pandemic.
I hate Trump with every fiber of my being but he was right in dropping out of WHO.

But the WHO is not wrong. In a globally connected world, it doesn’t matter if everyone over here is vaccinated, but most people over there aren’t. Over there is where the variants will develop that evade our vaccines over here.

Maybe. But I care about the United States and not so much the rest of the world. We're giving them millions of doses already and demand more saying we don't care about them. Just read where millions of doses are expiring because they're too incompetent to give the shot in a timely manner.

I also just read that now they are going to be wanting everybody to get a booster shot every 8 months because of all the variants.

dbt1949 wrote: Fri Dec 24, 2021 1:00 pm Maybe. But I care about the United States and not so much the rest of the world.

There's no maybe about it. To borrow from Ed Yong, during a pandemic self-interest is self-defeating.

We're giving them millions of doses already and demand more saying we don't care about them. Just read where millions of doses are expiring because they're too incompetent to give the shot in a timely manner.

Yeah, we need to help them figure this all out, no doubt.

I also just read that now they are going to be wanting everybody to get a booster shot every 8 months because of all the variants.

I read some discussion yesterday with immunologists that are quite concerned that we're going to cross a line with boosters where they're no longer going to be effective - that if we offer them too soon, the body just won't respond. That type of analysis is above my pay grade but when smart people start discussing the idea that vaccines might really become significantly less powerful...that's a problem.

dbt1949 wrote: Fri Dec 24, 2021 1:00 pm

RunningMn9 wrote: Fri Dec 24, 2021 12:03 pm

dbt1949 wrote:I like how the head of WHO is complaining that the "rich" countries vaccinating are going to prolong the pandemic.
It seems by doing this we're not giving the poorer countries enough vaccine, thus prolonging the pandemic.
I hate Trump with every fiber of my being but he was right in dropping out of WHO.

But the WHO is not wrong. In a globally connected world, it doesn’t matter if everyone over here is vaccinated, but most people over there aren’t. Over there is where the variants will develop that evade our vaccines over here.

Maybe. But I care about the United States and not so much the rest of the world. We're giving them millions of doses already and demand more saying we don't care about them. Just read where millions of doses are expiring because they're too incompetent to give the shot in a timely manner.

Protecting the world protect us. unvaccinated people lead to new variants, and new variants will make their way to the US. It's like saying I am going to vaccinate just the people in my house, I don't care about my neighbors or the rest of society - that won't work very well unless you plan to stay in your house forever and never let anyone else in.

So, educate me…

What’s the difference between the flu world where they try and make a vaccine for “this year’s flu”, and the work being done with Covid vaccines and boosters that may or may not be as effective against the current strain of Covid.

Unagi wrote: Fri Dec 24, 2021 1:58 pm What’s the difference between the flu world where they try and make a vaccine for “this year’s flu”, and the work being done with Covid vaccines and boosters that may or may not be as effective against the current strain of Covid.

The flu has a "natural" cycle it follows - it's truly seasonal based on where you are in the world at any given time. Each year nature comes up with a slightly modified version of the strain(s) that circulated in years prior and they tweak the vaccines to adjust for it. For the influenza viral genome, it's apparently more or less "stable" and the combinations that emerge are "expected" in the sense that we know what combinations will result in a flu virus that (1) spreads between humans and (2) causes us illness. As a reminder, influenza is primarily a disease of aquatic water fowl, but for various reasons, it jumps to different animal species and ultimate,y to us. Those "jumps" allow the viral genome to shuffle a bit, which is where the vaccine formulation comes in. Every once and while something unforseen happens (i.e. 1918, 1976) and the genetic reshuffling isn't something we are expecting and the potential for a more severe variant emerges. To be clear, when the genome shifts, it changes how the virus "presents" itself to your body - it changes the shapes of the proteins or the makeup of the coating of the virus that your body uses to try and identify it as self vs non-self.

For SARS-CoV-2, there is no "cycle" that its in. It's not "seasonal" or "endemic" (despite what you might have heard), it's a raging pandemic right now - still, after almost 2 years.

There is no comparable event in our collective lifetimes and trying to develop a vaccine for a newly emerged human pathogen that is still circulating (and mutating) seems like a large whack-a-mole effort, largely in part because it continues to circulate (and mutate) unchecked.

For influenza, there is more of a host balance - it's not something that we've never seen (with the noted exceptions above) before on Earth, it's just moving through our area based on the time of year. SARS-CoV-2 knows no limits. Yes, it would seem there are factors that encourage spread (humidity possibly, temperature (indoor vs outdoor activities)) but it has not stopped circulating. Your body knows influenza - it has memories of it. Prior exposure (and vaccinations) give you an advantage against future exposures (even if it's not a 100% match). For SARS-CoV-2, we're all too immunologically naive. And now the virus is specifically evolving to evade immunity - both from vaccinations and prior illness.

Until we get it to stop circulating (masks being key here, but not the only way) we are on a treadmill. And if I had to put my money on humans or the virus figuring out how to break this cycle, I'm better on the virus. Mainly because it's already figure out how to increase spread and bypass immunity in the first year we hit it with a vaccine. What will 2022 bring?

Oh hey look, it's drink o'clock.

Had planned a trip to the Keys with the family (parents, brothers and their families). Just got the word an hour ago my flight was canceled. One of my brothers coming from NY just got notified that their flight has been canceled. I can drive (though it’s a pain) but my brother definitely can’t. Ugh

Thank you for that lesson.
I’ve shared some of that with some family and friends.

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Dec 24, 2021 2:18 pm The flu has a "natural" cycle it follows - it's truly seasonal based on where you are in the world at any given time. Each year nature comes up with a slightly modified version of the strain(s) that circulated in years prior and they tweak the vaccines to adjust for it. For the influenza viral genome, it's apparently more or less "stable" and the combinations that emerge are "expected" in the sense that we know what combinations will result in a flu virus that (1) spreads between humans and (2) causes us illness. As a reminder, influenza is primarily a disease of aquatic water fowl, but for various reasons, it jumps to different animal species and ultimate,y to us. Those "jumps" allow the viral genome to shuffle a bit, which is where the vaccine formulation comes in. Every once and while something unforseen happens (i.e. 1918, 1976) and the genetic reshuffling isn't something we are expecting and the potential for a more severe variant emerges. To be clear, when the genome shifts, it changes how the virus "presents" itself to your body - it changes the shapes of the proteins or the makeup of the coating of the virus that your body uses to try and identify it as self vs non-self.

For SARS-CoV-2, there is no "cycle" that its in. It's not "seasonal" or "endemic" (despite what you might have heard), it's a raging pandemic right now - still, after almost 2 years.

There is no comparable event in our collective lifetimes and trying to develop a vaccine for a newly emerged human pathogen that is still circulating (and mutating) seems like a large whack-a-mole effort, largely in part because it continues to circulate (and mutate) unchecked.

For influenza, there is more of a host balance - it's not something that we've never seen (with the noted exceptions above) before on Earth, it's just moving through our area based on the time of year. SARS-CoV-2 knows no limits. Yes, it would seem there are factors that encourage spread (humidity possibly, temperature (indoor vs outdoor activities)) but it has not stopped circulating. Your body knows influenza - it has memories of it. Prior exposure (and vaccinations) give you an advantage against future exposures (even if it's not a 100% match). For SARS-CoV-2, we're all too immunologically naive. And now the virus is specifically evolving to evade immunity - both from vaccinations and prior illness.

I'm saving this whole post for next time I have to explain this to someone.

It's...not a perfect explainer and I'm sure virologists would jump in and correct things, but in terms of broad strokes, I think it's accurate.

From last night:

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1474596324121231361

If all states were reporting today, we estimate that the U.S. would've had at least 320,000 new cases, which would've been the biggest one-day increase on record

U.S. COVID update: Limited reporting due to Christmas Eve

- New cases: 199,281
- Average: 189,386 (+4,083)
- States reporting: 20/50
- In hospital: 70,229 (+358)
- In ICU: 16,466 (-136)
- New deaths: 1,057
- Average: 1,231 (-166)

https://twitter.com/wsbgnl/status/1474723756303994880

In 2020

JEFF ZIENTS
President
Cranemere Group
(Investment firm)
Salary: $1.6 million
Total income: $10.4 - $28 million

RON KLAIN
Executive Vice President
Revolution, LLC
(Venture capital firm)
Salary: $2 million

Which is where they will return after the White House, or similar

Here in South Carolina our last update was Thursday and our next one is Wednesday. I'm sure the low numbers we've been seeing will be maintained over the break (it looked like we might finally begin seeing the start of a spike on Thursday after being pretty much flat since the end of October).

Well, Ron Klain is Biden's Chief of Staff, right? So he's basically in charge of everything (at least in terms of process) and by definition the vast majority of that is going to be stuff that he doesn't have experience in (since any one person can only have material experience in a small amount of stuff). Complaining about him having a significant role in federal Covid policy is essentially like complaining that Biden has a significant role despite the lack of a public health background.

I also don't totally understand the relevance of their out of public service income, other than the vague insinuation of corruption.

But I don't know as much about Zients and his role. There's also the separate question of whether Klain is doing a good job and whether he has the right experts around him and whether he's listening to them. But there's no way around him being an important decision maker.

El Guapo wrote: Sun Dec 26, 2021 12:57 pm Well, Ron Klain is Biden's Chief of Staff, right? So he's basically in charge of everything (at least in terms of process) and by definition the vast majority of that is going to be stuff that he doesn't have experience in (since any one person can only have material experience in a small amount of stuff).

And he actually does have some relevant experience in that arena:

Six years ago, President Barack Obama and his administration feared the kind of calamitous situation the coronavirus has unfortunately caused. To help ensure that did not happen, Obama tapped a veteran Democratic operative, Ron Klain, to oversee the response to the outbreak in West Africa that had already made its way to the U.S.


Now Klain is on the verge of returning to the White House as chief of staff to President-elect Joe Biden as the country battles a raging pandemic far more deadly and pervasive than Ebola ever became. As one of the key architects of the incoming administration’s Covid-19 plan, Klain’s experience is already shaping how the next administration will respond.

“Klain’s Ebola work, in particular, has played into things hugely — starting back during the campaign with all our messaging and conversation about what to do,” said Dr. Nicole Lurie, who coordinated pandemic preparedness for the Health and Human Services Department during the Obama administration and served as a public health adviser to Biden’s campaign.

This week is going to be bonkers.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1475211420170166276

New York state reports 49,708 new coronavirus cases for Saturday, the biggest one-day increase on record

Ill be in my bunker.

And now my brother has it. Fun times all around.

I have a feeling this is going to be the week where everyone is going to know someone with COVID-19. I heard about an Xmas gathering of friends of my family that can only be described as deplorable and I never want to see or speak with these people again. Mask up, stay safe and do whatever you can to avoid getting caught up in this wave. Also consider avoiding ladders and cars - you don't want to be anywhere near an ER at this time.

My SIL's son tested positive Wednesday. He had been at a birthday party the previous weekend where a boy tested positive. Today my SIL's daughter tested positive. My SIL thinks she has it as well because she said her lungs feel "itchy", but she's out of home tests. Her husband is said to feel fine. The son was not vaccinated. The daughter was. The status of the parents is unclear, but she just hung up on her mother for criticizing not getting the son vaccinated (in fairness she called her a redneck republican, so tact was not on the table). This is in southern New Jersey.

I'm not sure what happens when kids go back to school in a week. I just don't see how we don't all end up exposed. My kids can be religious about masking, but they still have to eat and one daughter is in band playing the trumpet. It's very frustrating to feel so helpless. At least we are all vaccinated so fingers crossed for the mild version.

stessier wrote: Sun Dec 26, 2021 7:13 pm I'm not sure what happens when kids go back to school in a week.

Around here? Spoiler - they're not going back to school. At least, that's what I believe.

Daehawk wrote: Sun Dec 26, 2021 6:22 pm Ill be in my bunker.

Smoove_B wrote: Sun Dec 26, 2021 7:19 pm

stessier wrote: Sun Dec 26, 2021 7:13 pm I'm not sure what happens when kids go back to school in a week.

Around here? Spoiler - they're not going back to school. At least, that's what I believe.

No, around here in SC. We are definitely not going virtual again.

Smoove_B wrote: Sun Dec 26, 2021 6:38 pm I have a feeling this is going to be the week where everyone is going to know someone with COVID-19. I heard about an Xmas gathering of friends of my family that can only be described as deplorable and I never want to see or speak with these people again. Mask up, stay safe and do whatever you can to avoid getting caught up in this wave. Also consider avoiding ladders and cars - you don't want to be anywhere near an ER at this time.

We arrived in Chicago at the tail end of the Bears game, and found more than a dozen cars parked at my in-laws' next-door neighbor's house for a watch party. In their closed garage man-cave.

This is why we can't have nice things.

stessier wrote: Sun Dec 26, 2021 10:13 pm No, around here in SC. We are definitely not going virtual again.

What's the plan when you don't have enough teachers to actually conduct a school day?

I think that's where we're headed - disruption USA. People are mentally done and when there are random business closures, delays for services, deliveries are interrupted, etc... because a significant number of people are waylaid by the virus, it's going to get weird. And I'm not even talking about hospitals or clinics - just regular things. Gas stations being closed. Can't get a repair service for a furnace or a plumber. I can't help but shake the feeling we're about to enter a new phase for the next few weeks.

Thousands of flights are getting cancelled per day. It's looking like we effectively might be getting an informal lockdown. I haven't seen it locally yet but it feels like a matter of time now.

Locals in my county were on social media today asking where the nearest clinic was because all the smaller urgent care facilities were closed. Why were they closed? Because the staff all have COVID-19 - the staff members were in the various discussions telling everyone why they were closed and then trying to be helpful by recommending places to go that are in different parts of the state or possibly crossing into nearby PA or NY state. Numerous reports of people going to local hospital ER and just sitting and waiting for 3+ hours and then leaving.

Again, this week is going likely be bonkers.

And then of course people asking for rapid tests and people worried about their kids - followed by the "it's just like the flu" commentary and "stop living in fear". Complete and utter disregard for others - even now.

I did see this:

America's third year of dealing with the pandemic is likely to start as bleak as ever, with a devastating Omicron surge for the first couple of months.

Yes, but: Experts are hopeful that once the wave of cases, hospitalizations and deaths caused by the Omicron variant ebbs, life will finally be able to more closely resemble normal.

Between the lines: The silver lining of a tough January and February is that most of the country could have some degree of immunity afterward — either through vaccination, infection or both — that helps protect them against severe COVID infections in the future.

I am absolutely convinced now we're going to do this the hardest and least compassionate way possible - just dragging everyone we can through the pandemic and if you survive, terrific. And in 2024 politicians will vote to declare Long COVID a hoax and remove all medical funding for anyone receiving assistance.

How does it look:

What they're saying: "The best possible scenario is Omicron tears through the population, it causes a month or a month and a half of economic disruption and illness, and then we’re through it," said Megan Ranney, an emergency physician and academic dean for Brown's School of Public Health.

“The worst-case scenario is Omicron ends up being much more severe, overwhelms and crushes our hospital systems, and then gets followed by a worse variant," she added.
And then, of course, there's the spectrum of scenarios in between the two.

Really great explainer on the "it's less severe" message that's being spread

https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/ ... 8010865665

Myth debunking:
After reading more misleading takes in the media, I'm going to try to explain this again- overall, omicron causes *more* and not less severe disease than delta - even at an individual level for most people. Why?

...

In simple terms, because omicron can escape immunity from past infections and vaccines, your protection against infection against omicron is vastly lower than with delta. This means risk of 1. is vastly increased- as you're less protected & also v. high background transmission.

...

All the 'mild' takes compare omicron hospitalisations *once* infected, without accounting for the fact that omicron is infected people who're vaccinated and had past infection who wouldn't have been infected with delta at all because they were protected. So, it's increasing risk, rather than reducing it, by infection people who wouldn't have been infected with delta- which means we are actually at higher risk of severe disease - because of lower protection from infection with vaccination with omicron compared to delta.

There's more, if you continue. I think what continues to be lost in all this is the scale and speed.

Smoove_B wrote: Sun Dec 26, 2021 6:38 pmI have a feeling this is going to be the week where everyone is going to know someone with COVID-19.

Woo hoo! For once I'm ahead of the curve! I actually know 2 people who have tested positive in the last few days. Fortunately they're both vaxxed and fairly young, but neither of them is enjoying it.

Meanwhile I figure between family visits and Christmas services that there's ~0% chance that I haven't been exposed to Omicron in the last few days. Let's hope the booster holds up.

Found out Xmas eve that my brother (~60 y.o.) has it (Texas). Apparently his wife did not have it (~70 y.o.). But it didn't sound like he was making any effort to isolate. And the 2 grandsons (young) were still due to come over for Xmas. Not sure who else.

They are probably vaccinated. But I don't ask (did I mention... Texas?). The grandsons, too young. Here's hoping I don't get any unpleasant texts or calls in another week or two.

Zaxxon wrote: Sun Dec 26, 2021 6:29 pm And now my brother has it. Fun times all around.

Same here. Works in the film industry. Went to a meeting where everyone attending was tested the day before and all were clear. Guy got a test a day later and he's infected. Then my brother tests positive. Unfortunately due to his work schedule he had not been boosted. But so far he is ok - no trouble breathing, more like a mild case of the flu so far. Hope all turns out well for him of course.

Count me in on the knowing someone with Covid. A good friend of mine that is a teacher.

I'm trying to decide if I want to go down to see my parents over New Years now. I'm really concerned about them...they're both boosted, and have been really careful so far, but my dad is bound and determined to head down to Florida in early January.

We've got some in home tests saved up. We're going to test before we go down, if we go down. But I'm still concerned and am about 50% convinced that we aren't going down. Not to protect us, but to protect them.

malchior wrote: Sun Dec 26, 2021 10:37 pm Thousands of flights are getting cancelled per day. It's looking like we effectively might be getting an informal lockdown. I haven't seen it locally yet but it feels like a matter of time now.

I learned that there are 80,000 landings in the US on any given day, and presumably an equal number of takeoffs but they only count landings for some reason. That's way more than I would've guessed. Ordinarily there are a few hundred cancellations. A few thousand are more of a nuisance than a crisis.

What they're saying: "The best possible scenario is Omicron tears through the population, it causes a month or a month and a half of economic disruption and illness, and then we’re through it," said Megan Ranney, an emergency physician and academic dean for Brown's School of Public Health.

“The worst-case scenario is Omicron ends up being much more severe, overwhelms and crushes our hospital systems, and then gets followed by a worse variant," she added.
And then, of course, there's the spectrum of scenarios in between the two.

Just a man-on-the-street projection, from what I'm seeing/hearing from those around me, this is 100% where we are headed, and I don't think there's any way to avoid it at this point. Most folks are just not taking anywhere near the precautions they need to, and with Christmas and New Years, it's going to be a very interesting January/February.

Kraken wrote: Mon Dec 27, 2021 2:25 am

malchior wrote: Sun Dec 26, 2021 10:37 pm Thousands of flights are getting cancelled per day. It's looking like we effectively might be getting an informal lockdown. I haven't seen it locally yet but it feels like a matter of time now.

I learned that there are 80,000 landings in the US on any given day, and presumably an equal number of takeoffs but they only count landings for some reason. That's way more than I would've guessed. Ordinarily there are a few hundred cancellations. A few thousand are more of a nuisance than a crisis.

Sorta. Like Praxideke Meng said it's the cascade and air travel is prone to them. A couple of thousands flights cancelled over a couple of days is fine. The passengers work there way through the system by hopping on empty seats on other flights and other forms of transportation like buses. It's when the cancellations are at thousands of flights a day lasts for a period of time when things go bad. Empty seats stop being available, car rentals dry up, there aren't enough bus seats, etc. And those services might be impacted as well. We'll see yet but if this lasts more than a week or so it'll be trouble for a lot of people.

Smoove_B wrote: Sun Dec 26, 2021 6:38 pm I have a feeling this is going to be the week where everyone is going to know someone with COVID-19.

Concurrently? How can you not have known someone who's had COVID by now? 50,000,000 cases so far. I know two people in the hospital right now. I've known many who have had it, "only" one death amongst people I know.

Two years of largely being locked up but I remain in 5/6th of uninfected or undiagnosed.

Yes, concurrently. As in, 'I know X people who have COVID-19 right now.'