That is not dead which can eternal lie, and with strange aeons bring us some web forums whereupon we can gather
http://garbi.online/forum/
He's 69 and extremely paranoid about his health, so he probably expects another decade or more in office.
The oligarchs have *immense* wealth stashed everywhere it will fit. They'll ride out the collapse of the Russian economy and then decamp to safer climes (probably China) when it all falls apart.How hard is this going to push Europeans into alternative energy sources when they are investing in EVs?
What is Russia going to do for hard currency when oil/natural gas isn't in demand as a fuel?
I'll add one more:
Which means China is plenty big enough.
I said it earlier. Sanctions aren't enough. There are two paths to defeating Russia in the short term. Either Ukraine extracts a heavy toll militarily or the west wages unfettered economic warfare. Like cutting off SWIFT and cyber attacks. We're too scared, probably rightfully so, to go with plan B so fingers crossed that the Ukrainians can execute plan A. Unfortunately that means a lot of bodies.Be ready for a long haul. That was the subtext of Boris Johnson’s message to MPs as he committed to toughening up sanctions against Russia.
The warning to prepare for a “protracted struggle” was both timely and appropriate. There will be no quick knockout blow because Vladimir Putin has had time to prepare and is well dug-in.
...
Firstly, Putin has been actively seeking to insulate Russia from the west ever since the invasion of the Crimea in 2014. Western imports of meat, fruit, vegetables and dairy were banned when sanctions were imposed.
Secondly, self-sufficiency has been accompanied by an attempt at diversification, with a deliberate policy pivot towards China. An agreement with Beijing – again in 2014 – paved the way for the construction of the Power of Siberia – a gas pipeline linking the two countries that opened in 2019.
China is the world’s second-biggest economy and its heavy demand for energy has been one of the factor pushing up global energy prices over the past year. Putin has already given approval for Power of Siberia 2.
Thirdly, Russia has used the money received from its oil and gas exports to build up substantial financial defences. Moscow is sitting on foreign currency reserves of about $500bn (£369bn) and, by international standards, has extremely low levels of national debt. Whereas the pandemic has sent the UK’s national debt to GDP ratio spiralling above 100%, in Russia it is below 20%.
BBC has a bit more info on this.
Ukraine is a large country but Kyiv in relative terms is not far from the border - maybe 250 miles or so. And reports are that they advanced a pincer formation from Belarus and Russia simultaneously with several tank groups. This is the breakthrough group arriving. All the soldiers behind it are supposedly going to be low quality so we'll have to see how it really turns out.
200 or more miles in one day by an advancing army is a lot.malchior wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 9:11 amUkraine is a large country but Kyiv in relative terms is not far from the border - maybe 250 miles or so. And reports are that they advanced a pincer formation from Belarus and Russia simultaneously with several tank groups. This is the breakthrough group arriving. All the soldiers behind it are supposedly going to be low quality so we'll have to see how it really turns out.
Zelensky didn't mobilize until the invasion was underway. I haven't heard a story why. Maybe he thought he wanted to look unthreatening. In any case, it might turn out to be more a guerilla war than conventional.
I said it before. He is seen as completely overmatched. The US was telling him the invasion was imminent and it looks like he didn't even set up a line of defense off the border to protect their capital. They are literally pouring guns onto the streets and handing them out to civilians right now to defend the capital. I give them points for heart but that's about it.dbt1949 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 9:24 am200 or more miles in one day by an advancing army is a lot.malchior wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 9:11 amUkraine is a large country but Kyiv in relative terms is not far from the border - maybe 250 miles or so. And reports are that they advanced a pincer formation from Belarus and Russia simultaneously with several tank groups. This is the breakthrough group arriving. All the soldiers behind it are supposedly going to be low quality so we'll have to see how it really turns out.
Zelensky didn't mobilize until the invasion was underway. I haven't heard a story why. Maybe he thought he wanted to look unthreatening. In any case, it might turn out to be more a guerilla war than conventional.
Zelensky should have stayed in comedy.
Ok but what then do you mean about Afghanistan?
To be fair to Zelensky, he was probably holding out hope that this could be avoided. If he mobilized, Russia portrays Ukraine as a threat and convinces a few more people that their actions are justified. If he doesn't, maybe his country doesn't get invaded -- but he risks being behind the eight ball in terms of defense.malchior wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 9:39 amI said it before. He is seen as completely overmatched. The US was telling him the invasion was imminent and it looks like he didn't even set up a line of defense off the border to protect their capital. They are literally pouring guns onto the streets and handing them out to civilians right now to defend the capital. I give them points for heart but that's about it.dbt1949 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 9:24 am200 or more miles in one day by an advancing army is a lot.malchior wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 9:11 amUkraine is a large country but Kyiv in relative terms is not far from the border - maybe 250 miles or so. And reports are that they advanced a pincer formation from Belarus and Russia simultaneously with several tank groups. This is the breakthrough group arriving. All the soldiers behind it are supposedly going to be low quality so we'll have to see how it really turns out.
Zelensky didn't mobilize until the invasion was underway. I haven't heard a story why. Maybe he thought he wanted to look unthreatening. In any case, it might turn out to be more a guerilla war than conventional.
Zelensky should have stayed in comedy.
Edit: I'll also say they've got nearly everyone on their side except for you know actual support. With stories about the 'Ghost of Kyiv' - credited with 6 kills in a Mig-29, taking back the Hostomel airport, and Snake Island, they are building a strong idea that they will fiercely defend no matter how the initial days go.
I'm sure that was the calculation. I'm just following the people talking about this and sort of surprised by his passivity. I'm also sure it plays into the Russian threat was ever present theme and maybe this is a consequence of Trump and loss of prestige in American intelligence. Maybe Zelensky was like...alright bros...but in any case it remains to be seen how the defense holds up.Dogstar wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 10:59 amTo be fair to Zelensky, he was probably holding out hope that this could be avoided. If he mobilized, Russia portrays Ukraine as a threat and convinces a few more people that their actions are justified. If he doesn't, maybe his country doesn't get invaded -- but he risks being behind the eight ball in terms of defense.
Example (NSFL video):LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 1:14 pm
Side note, this is probably the most significant European conflict in the age of rampant social media. Propaganda is going to be lightning fast.
Note: "propaganda" isn't a judgement of veracity or validity of the information.TRANSLATION:
*i am a native Russian speaker:
On 24 February, around 10-11 hours we ended up here. Here is the body of my mom, and here is the body of the soldier who was attempting to protect us. Then Russian soldiers starting shooting us. I was laying down right here *points where she was laying down. *points to road There were russian tanks and Russian soldiers over there and Russian soldiers started shooting. Well here we came with my father trying to get home.
*edit, more information
From what I gather, the dead soldier is a Russian soldier who was trying to prevent friendly fire.
Source: the following translated text from a post made by the victim on her Instagram
It was a Russian soldier
We went to the city to withdraw money and buy food, returning home at the exit from Kharkiv, Russian tanks blocked the road, they fired at our car, we turned into a dead end and jumped out of the car, two guys jumped out to meet us, Russian soldiers, young, 18-20 years old .. who could barely held their weapons. .... We stayed there for 15 minutes, then they started shooting at us .. My mother was wounded in the arm, I heard her scream in pain .. And at that time a soldier threw me to the ground and shouted many times do not shoot ... They are ours ... He yelled at the Russian soldiers, don't shoot.. Heavy shooting began.. A dead soldier fell on me.. The second one was also shot... But my mother was silent... I got up and understood that she was dead.. She was hit in the head. .. I was left alone. They were shooting all around me, I grabbed my papers, etc. I hiding behind an iron booth
It was a foregone conclusion that Russia would take Kiev and decapitate the government. Whether that takes a day or a week or even a month is immaterial except to those who have to suffer and die in the process. The big question is what happens after that. Does Putin try to garrison the country? How much power does he have to project, and for how long, to enforce his puppet regime? 200,000 troops to occupy a country the size of Texas isn't a lot, if that country is determined to resist and receiving outside help. Or does he install his minions, declare victory and go home, satisfied with expelling the pro-Western democracy on his doorstep? Or (unlikely) does he steamroll to the borders of the Baltics while Ukraine is still in chaos?Little Raven wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 10:17 amIt took the US just 26 days to completely dismantle the government of Iraq back in 2003.
This is just getting started.
Could be very problematic for Putin domestically when Russian conscripts start coming home in body bags.BELGOROD, Russia — Russian conscripts are being forced into signing contracts and taken to serve in Ukraine amid a large-scale attack, human rights group the Committee of the Soldier’s Mothers told The Washington Post in an interview on Friday.
“Issue number one right now, eight out of 10 calls that we get are about the same question: ‘Is my child alive? Where is he?’" said Andrey Kurochkin, the organization’s deputy head.
Russia has mandatory one-year-long military service for all men under the age of 27. According to Russian regulations, conscripts can be sent to a combat zone no earlier than four months into their training. The Committee says it received a barrage of calls saying some conscripts barely served two months and are unprepared for the battlefield.
Kurochkin explains that, according to their mothers, some of the conscripts thought they were heading toward the Ukrainian border for drills, which is how Russia explained its massive buildup for weeks. “Then they are being told: now you are contractors,” he said. “And everyone’s phones are being taken away, while moms are crying and in panic.”
The Russian Ministry of Defense previously denied that it was sending conscripts to war zones. But parents seeking legal help from the committee say that their sons were being coerced or misled into signing up for contracted service.
Before Russian troops went into Ukraine, a local outlet in the Belgorod region posted a picture of over 100 Russian soldiers sleeping on the floor of a small train station in Veselaya Lopan village, about 40 miles from the Ukrainian city Kharkiv.
The Committee of the Soldier’s Mothers at the time voiced concerns about the lack of food and poor conditions the soldiers had to live in as they waited there. Conflict Intelligence Team, an open intelligence group monitoring Russian military activities, said in a statement on Telegram that sending conscripts en masse into a battle zone is “unprecedented since the 2008 war with Georgia.”
The committee also said it recently began receiving calls from students who have official deferral from active service while completing their studies, “but now they are being summoned to the military enlistment offices, and there are some efforts to persuade them to sign a contract,” Kurochkin added.
Do we know that they *didn't* prepare? I thought I heard that reserves were called up and equipment was readied. They certainly didn't have time to increase the size of their military, but they weren't caught with their tanks in storage and their troops on leave. Plus they were handing out thousands of firearms to willing civilians on the first day of the invasion, something that presumably takes a while to organize.malchior wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:06 amI'm sure that was the calculation. I'm just following the people talking about this and sort of surprised by his passivity. I'm also sure it plays into the Russian threat was ever present theme and maybe this is a consequence of Trump and loss of prestige in American intelligence. Maybe Zelensky was like...alright bros...but in any case it remains to be seen how the defense holds up.Dogstar wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 10:59 amTo be fair to Zelensky, he was probably holding out hope that this could be avoided. If he mobilized, Russia portrays Ukraine as a threat and convinces a few more people that their actions are justified. If he doesn't, maybe his country doesn't get invaded -- but he risks being behind the eight ball in terms of defense.
By many accounts several won't be coming home at all. The conscript forces are unprofessional and unorganized and aren't great about retrieving bodies. There are also unproven reports of their mobile crematoriums being used to avoid the whole body bag thing.
Wiki:Grozny, Chechnya
Thousands of Chechen fighters (loyalists to Kadyrov) are heading to fight in Ukraine. Kadyrov is one of Putin’s most loyal men, and he is an icon for militant Islamists.
The Kadyrovtsy has been criticized of being Ramzan Kadyrov's private army, and is accused of committing widespread human rights abuses such as kidnapping, forced disappearances, torture and murder. Critics claim the Kadyrovtsy use extrajudicial punishment to cement Kadyrov's autocratic rule, and now surpass jihadist insurgents as the most feared organization among Chechnya's civilian population.
