Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

[malchior]

This is another component of my fear factor for unrest - little drives it like widespread hunger does. 1 in 8 going or facing hunger right now in the US. That is abysmal.

https://twitter.com/MariahCBlake/status ... 3816125442

[LawBeefaroni]

The big millennial cohort has struggled compared to their parents and they are really angry. They have less faith in Democracy than many of us older folks do. They've watched successive minority governments ignore the majority to loot the nation and prop up the ultra wealthy. They are well educated yet somehow poorer and the ones who didn't get educated are even poorer.

They and their younger brothers and sisters are generally the people out marching and fighting in the streets. The economic inequality is the tinder and Trump is recklessly throwing more wood and matches in an effort to win again. We have 8 weeks to go and it's getting uglier and uglier right now.

What are they going to do? They have proven to be economically impotent as a group, they aren't politically active in the traditional sense, and they are out gunned by their right wing counterparts (figuratively and literally).

I hope the Democratic party can harness their angst somehow but right now I don't see it.

[malchior]

What are they going to do?

They have proven to be economically impotent as a group, they aren't politically active in the traditional sense, and they are out gunned by their right wing counterparts (figuratively and literally).[/quote]Good question but I reckon it isn't going to be peaceful if the political system keeps ignoring them. We're looking at some hard realities now. This is a very sick and broken system. People are poorer than their parents. People are going hungry. If you actually listen they are painfully aware of why. Their parents and grandparents propped up the ultra wealthy to bail them out over and over while they pillage the country. They know it better than anyone. They just don't have a voice. The longer that is delayed the worse it'll get when they do seize the reins.

I hope the Democratic party can harness their angst somehow but right now I don't see it.

To be fair the Democratic party is trying to some extent. The Democratic platform is stretched farther to left than it has ever been. If the right, wasn't off the map the Democrats would likely be re-framing themselves center-left instead of trying to desperately anchor the middle. In any case, if Biden gets elected and in four years we're farther down the kleptocracy/plutocracy path then we'll continue to see a groundswell of protests/riots/unrest. This system cannot survive with this level of inequality. If Trump gets re-elected I think it'll blow apart.

Edit: Or autocracy to keep the left bottled up but I don't know if the US will accept the measures needed to keep it together.

[noxiousdog]

Five Thirty Eight now has North Carolina as slightly favoring Biden.

Two high quality polls from Monmouth and Fox News came in at +2 and +4 respectively.

[Carpet_pissr]

I think a lot of those young' uns LB is referring to also do not want to vote for Biden. It's why Bernie did as well as he did. He actually represented (ideologically) REAL, substantive change, not the micro adjustments that the D's have been playing with for the past decade+. And before you give excuses, I know them all. Trust me. And I believe some of them, but it doesn't matter. Some of these kids are beyond the excuses at this point.

Biden represents a return to normal, which to them did not seem equitable or just. MOTS. They want a rethinking and rebuilding of the broken, unfair system. I think.

Even if you frame the question around the "lesser evil" compared to Trump...they feel so unrepresented in the current system (and the system under Obama) that I think they don't care. They view them both as unacceptable.

I've heard a lot of interviews, and read enough to see a pattern (anecdotal of course) where typically liberal youth in this category are seriously considering not voting at all, or voting whoever the 3rd part candidate is, as a protest vote. Biden is just lip service, and Trump is....well he's Trump. Neither one is interested in true, complete reform that they are seeking.

That is a LOT of assuming on my part, I know, but just thought I would share my gut feeling after listening and reading to way too much political news these days. I really need to back away a bit, as it's affecting my psyche.

[Carpet_pissr]

Fox News came in at +4.

Oh Trump is going to love that.

[stessier]

Five Thirty Eight now has North Carolina as slightly favoring Biden.

Two high quality polls from Monmouth and Fox News came in at +2 and +4 respectively.

The Monmouth poll is +/- 4.9. The Fox poll is +/- 3.5.

[Kurth]

I've heard a lot of interviews, and read enough to see a pattern (anecdotal of course) where typically liberal youth in this category are seriously considering not voting at all, or voting whoever the 3rd part candidate is, as a protest vote. Biden is just lip service, and Trump is....well he's Trump. Neither one is interested in true, complete reform that they are seeking.

That is a LOT of assuming on my part, I know, but just thought I would share my gut feeling after listening and reading to way too much political news these days. I really need to back away a bit, as it's affecting my psyche.

If that's the case, then fuck them and the horses they can't afford to ride in on. Even if you subscribe to the notion that the entire system needs to be fundamentally changed to align with more progressive positions, that's such a case of the perfect being the enemy of the good.

Sounds like a bunch of Bernie Bros. bullshit to me. That kind of reaction to a more centrist opposition to Trump is just stupid.

[LawBeefaroni]

I've heard a lot of interviews, and read enough to see a pattern (anecdotal of course) where typically liberal youth in this category are seriously considering not voting at all, or voting whoever the 3rd part candidate is, as a protest vote. Biden is just lip service, and Trump is....well he's Trump. Neither one is interested in true, complete reform that they are seeking.

That is a LOT of assuming on my part, I know, but just thought I would share my gut feeling after listening and reading to way too much political news these days. I really need to back away a bit, as it's affecting my psyche.

If that's the case, then fuck them and the horses they can't afford to ride in on. Even if you subscribe to the notion that the entire system needs to be fundamentally changed to align with more progressive positions, that's such a case of the perfect being the enemy of the good.

Sounds like a bunch of Bernie Bros. bullshit to me. That kind of reaction to a more centrist opposition to Trump is just stupid.

Many, let's call them the Drazzilists, think that Trump is the quickest path to burning down the whole system. Not because he's an agent of positive change but because he's an agent of chaos and destruction.

These are the people with the bleakest futures and the most years yet to live out those futures. If not voting is the most significant impact they can have, they'll do it...er...not do it, as the case may be.

[El Guapo]

I've heard a lot of interviews, and read enough to see a pattern (anecdotal of course) where typically liberal youth in this category are seriously considering not voting at all, or voting whoever the 3rd part candidate is, as a protest vote. Biden is just lip service, and Trump is....well he's Trump. Neither one is interested in true, complete reform that they are seeking.

That is a LOT of assuming on my part, I know, but just thought I would share my gut feeling after listening and reading to way too much political news these days. I really need to back away a bit, as it's affecting my psyche.

If that's the case, then fuck them and the horses they can't afford to ride in on. Even if you subscribe to the notion that the entire system needs to be fundamentally changed to align with more progressive positions, that's such a case of the perfect being the enemy of the good.

Sounds like a bunch of Bernie Bros. bullshit to me. That kind of reaction to a more centrist opposition to Trump is just stupid.

It's hard to quantify this, but it seems to me like the progressive opposition to Biden is significantly less than the progressive opposition to Clinton in 2016. I absolutely see a lot of left-wing bitching about Biden, but 90%+ of the time is couched within "I'm definitely voting for Biden because Trump is awful, BUT...". Plus this time Bernie dropped out much more quickly and endorsed Biden more fully and enthusiastically than Clinton.

I do worry about it, but I think there's some reason to expect that the progressive wing will overwhelmingly show up for Biden in 2020 (though maybe not in 2024).

[Enough]

I've heard a lot of interviews, and read enough to see a pattern (anecdotal of course) where typically liberal youth in this category are seriously considering not voting at all, or voting whoever the 3rd part candidate is, as a protest vote. Biden is just lip service, and Trump is....well he's Trump. Neither one is interested in true, complete reform that they are seeking.

That is a LOT of assuming on my part, I know, but just thought I would share my gut feeling after listening and reading to way too much political news these days. I really need to back away a bit, as it's affecting my psyche.

If that's the case, then fuck them and the horses they can't afford to ride in on. Even if you subscribe to the notion that the entire system needs to be fundamentally changed to align with more progressive positions, that's such a case of the perfect being the enemy of the good.

Sounds like a bunch of Bernie Bros. bullshit to me. That kind of reaction to a more centrist opposition to Trump is just stupid.

Many, let's call them the Drazzilists, think that Trump is the quickest path to burning down the whole system. Not because he's an agent of positive change but because he's an agent of chaos and destruction.

These are the people with the bleakest futures and the most years yet to live out those futures. If not voting is the most significant impact they can have, they'll do it...er...not do it, as the case may be.

We know these people obviously exist, are there more of them in 2020? I bet, but how significant of a block are folks that take this postmodern nihilist path to action?

[LordMortis]

I've heard a lot of interviews, and read enough to see a pattern (anecdotal of course) where typically liberal youth in this category are seriously considering not voting at all, or voting whoever the 3rd part candidate is, as a protest vote. Biden is just lip service, and Trump is....well he's Trump. Neither one is interested in true, complete reform that they are seeking.

That is a LOT of assuming on my part, I know, but just thought I would share my gut feeling after listening and reading to way too much political news these days. I really need to back away a bit, as it's affecting my psyche.

If that's the case, then fuck them and the horses they can't afford to ride in on. Even if you subscribe to the notion that the entire system needs to be fundamentally changed to align with more progressive positions, that's such a case of the perfect being the enemy of the good.

Sounds like a bunch of Bernie Bros. bullshit to me. That kind of reaction to a more centrist opposition to Trump is just stupid.

It's hard to quantify this, but it seems to me like the progressive opposition to Biden is significantly less than the progressive opposition to Clinton in 2016. I absolutely see a lot of left-wing bitching about Biden, but 90%+ of the time is couched within "I'm definitely voting for Biden because Trump is awful, BUT...". Plus this time Bernie dropped out much more quickly and endorsed Biden more fully and enthusiastically than Clinton.

I do worry about it, but I think there's some reason to expect that the progressive wing will overwhelmingly show up for Biden in 2020 (though maybe not in 2024).

In related news PBS reported that Russia are going for quality over quantity with their 2020 disinformation and there are very few known Russian Progressive disinformation internet presence and the known presences are not bot filled feed overwhelmers like the "Internet Research Agency" employed

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/russi ... nformation

[Grifman]

First sets of post convention polls show Biden maintaining his lead among likely voters:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... hape-polls

The only swing state where his lead had dropped is surprisingly PA, his home state. He still leads in WI, NC, and AZ. This continues to show that Biden has more ways to win than Trump does, as Clinton lost all 4 of these states last time.

[Enough]

First sets of post convention polls show Biden maintaining his lead among likely voters:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... hape-polls

The only swing state where his lead had dropped is surprisingly PA, his home state. He still leads in WI, NC, and AZ. This continues to show that Biden has more ways to win than Trump does, as Clinton lost all 4 of these states last time.

A lot of the wonks are keying in to PA as potentially THE swing state this cycle. <<<<Nervous mumbling>>>>

[Octavious]

President is recommending voter fraud and the main story on Fox is that Nancy went and got a haircut.

[El Guapo]

First sets of post convention polls show Biden maintaining his lead among likely voters:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... hape-polls

The only swing state where his lead had dropped is surprisingly PA, his home state. He still leads in WI, NC, and AZ. This continues to show that Biden has more ways to win than Trump does, as Clinton lost all 4 of these states last time.

A lot of the wonks are keying in to PA as potentially THE swing state this cycle. <<<<Nervous mumbling>>>>

Good news is that Biden has a few plausible paths to victory. If he wins back WI + MI (where he is way ahead currently, not far off his national lead) he can lose PA and still win if he picks up FL (or I think AZ would do it too)?

[Little Raven]

A lot of the wonks are keying in to PA as potentially THE swing state this cycle. <<<<Nervous mumbling>>>>

Simply winning PA isn't enough for Trump, though. I mean, he definitely needs it, but he'll need a lot more.

Trump had to run the table last time, and he'll have to do again.

[Octavious]

When I do scenarios on realclear I find it hard to see how Trump wins, but as the world is totally broken I have no doubt that he somehow could.

I do feel a bit better after more polls cane out the last two days. Trump should have at least had a decent bump from the convention and that's not really showing.

[LordMortis]

I do feel a bit better after more pills

[gilraen]

I do feel a bit better after more pills

When the auto-correct makes a Freudian slip...

[Little Raven]

When I do scenarios on realclear I find it hard to see how Trump wins...

As far as I can tell, Trump's only path to victory is pretty much the same one he took last time. He must take the vast bulk of electors from the following states: Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio. If he loses pretty much any two of those, he's toast.

Nothing about the electoral map has fundamentally changed....but the polls suggest he's going to have a much harder time doing it this time around.

[LordMortis]

but the polls suggest he's going to have a much harder time doing it this time around.

Man that should be the case for Michigan but I'm not seeing it. Boy I want to be wrong. I am the king of incorrectly parsing the world around me for the last 3+ years, so there's that hope in me.

[El Guapo]

First sets of post convention polls show Biden maintaining his lead among likely voters:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... hape-polls

The only swing state where his lead had dropped is surprisingly PA, his home state. He still leads in WI, NC, and AZ. This continues to show that Biden has more ways to win than Trump does, as Clinton lost all 4 of these states last time.

A lot of the wonks are keying in to PA as potentially THE swing state this cycle. <<<<Nervous mumbling>>>>

Good news is that Biden has a few plausible paths to victory. If he wins back WI + MI (where he is way ahead currently, not far off his national lead) he can lose PA and still win if he picks up FL (or I think AZ would do it too)?

I just pulled up an interactive electoral map, took the 2016 map and switched WI, MI, & AZ to Biden, while keeping PA & FL and other Trump states with Trump. The result? A 269-269 tie, which would be AWESOME.

[Octavious]

I do feel a bit better after more pills

When the auto-correct makes a Freudian slip...

Damn it. I thought I found that before you guys did. So funny.

[Carpet_pissr]

I really want to believe some of the polls-based optimism that I'm seeing here, but just to make super clear: you guys DO remember the lead-up to 2016, and are appropriately super-vigilant and paranoid about the numbers, etc, right?

I sense that you are, but let's try to add in a HUGE statistical cushion here taking into account:
polling margin of error
any impact from Russia's fiddling
any impact from Trump admin fiddling
Some kind of Negative News Piece about Biden that will undoubtedly surface or be fabricated (mark my words, we will see this before the election) FWIW the same people that did the SwiftBoat campaign against Kerry are working for Trump.

I really think it's much too early to even be pondering "I just don't see how he can win from here, going by the numbers". Let's also assume he is an odds beater.

[Enough]

First sets of post convention polls show Biden maintaining his lead among likely voters:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... hape-polls

The only swing state where his lead had dropped is surprisingly PA, his home state. He still leads in WI, NC, and AZ. This continues to show that Biden has more ways to win than Trump does, as Clinton lost all 4 of these states last time.

A lot of the wonks are keying in to PA as potentially THE swing state this cycle. <<<<Nervous mumbling>>>>

Good news is that Biden has a few plausible paths to victory. If he wins back WI + MI (where he is way ahead currently, not far off his national lead) he can lose PA and still win if he picks up FL (or I think AZ would do it too)?

I just pulled up an interactive electoral map, took the 2016 map and switched WI, MI, & AZ to Biden, while keeping PA & FL and other Trump states with Trump. The result? A 269-269 tie, which would be AWESOME.

Oh good lord, no! That was a potential scenario I was wanting to check as it seems fairly plausible.

[El Guapo]

First sets of post convention polls show Biden maintaining his lead among likely voters:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... hape-polls

The only swing state where his lead had dropped is surprisingly PA, his home state. He still leads in WI, NC, and AZ. This continues to show that Biden has more ways to win than Trump does, as Clinton lost all 4 of these states last time.

A lot of the wonks are keying in to PA as potentially THE swing state this cycle. <<<<Nervous mumbling>>>>

Good news is that Biden has a few plausible paths to victory. If he wins back WI + MI (where he is way ahead currently, not far off his national lead) he can lose PA and still win if he picks up FL (or I think AZ would do it too)?

I just pulled up an interactive electoral map, took the 2016 map and switched WI, MI, & AZ to Biden, while keeping PA & FL and other Trump states with Trump. The result? A 269-269 tie, which would be AWESOME.

Oh good lord, no! That was a potential scenario I was wanting to check as it seems fairly plausible.

FWIW this also assumes that Trump wins the ME-2 electoral vote again, and that Biden does not win the Omaha electoral vote. If either of those doesn't happen then Biden would win 270-268.

[El Guapo]

I really want to believe some of the polls-based optimism that I'm seeing here, but just to make super clear: you guys DO remember the lead-up to 2016, and are appropriately super-vigilant and paranoid about the numbers, etc, right?

I sense that you are, but let's try to add in a HUGE statistical cushion here taking into account:
polling margin of error
any impact from Russia's fiddling
any impact from Trump admin fiddling
Some kind of Negative News Piece about Biden that will undoubtedly surface or be fabricated (mark my words, we will see this before the election) FWIW the same people that did the SwiftBoat campaign against Kerry are working for Trump.

I really think it's much too early to even be pondering "I just don't see how he can win from here, going by the numbers". Let's also assume he is an odds beater.

Trump definitely has a plausible path to victory. If a normal size polling error is 2-3 points, and Trump's only behind by ~4.5 points in the electoral college tipping states, then Trump only needs to gain a couple points to be within "error's reach" of a win. Before factoring in shenanigans.

[Carpet_pissr]

With a seriously heavy heart, I say we must factor in shenanigans.

[gilraen]

I just pulled up an interactive electoral map, took the 2016 map and switched WI, MI, & AZ to Biden, while keeping PA & FL and other Trump states with Trump. The result? A 269-269 tie, which would be AWESOME.

Oh good lord, no! That was a potential scenario I was wanting to check as it seems fairly plausible.

An electoral college tie would go to Congress, with the House electing the President and the Senate electing the Vice-President. Except it wouldn't be the current Congress - it would be the incoming Congress.

[El Guapo]

I just pulled up an interactive electoral map, took the 2016 map and switched WI, MI, & AZ to Biden, while keeping PA & FL and other Trump states with Trump. The result? A 269-269 tie, which would be AWESOME.

Oh good lord, no! That was a potential scenario I was wanting to check as it seems fairly plausible.

An electoral college tie would go to Congress, with the House electing the President and the Senate electing the Vice-President. Except it wouldn't be the current Congress - it would be the incoming Congress.

The truly problematic part is that the vote is by state, as voted on by each state's congressional delegations. And since there are more red states at this point than blue states, a tie is probably a Trump victory.

[Alefroth]

The truly problematic part is that the vote is by state, as voted on by each state's congressional delegations.

Well that's shitty.

[El Guapo]

The truly problematic part is that the vote is by state, as voted on by each state's congressional delegations.

Well that's shitty.

I will say the divide's not as bad as I thought. Apparently the current congressional delegation majority is 26 (GOP) - 23 (Democrat) - 1 (tie - PA). Not sure how close Democrats are to flipping congressional delegations, but it's not insane.

Also note that the Senate elects the VP, with each senator getting a vote. So if the Democrats can flip the Senate in this scenario, you could wind up with a Trump-Harris administration...

[YellowKing]

President is recommending voter fraud and the main story on Fox is that Nancy went and got a haircut.

Several thousand Trump supporters show up at a rally without masks - no problem.

Pelosi takes off her mask to wash her hair at a salon - national scandal.

Welcome to 2020.

[LawBeefaroni]

President is recommending voter fraud and the main story on Fox is that Nancy went and got a haircut.

Several thousand Trump supporters show up at a rally without masks - no problem.

Pelosi takes off her mask to wash her hair at a salon - national scandal.

Welcome to 2020.

All that matters is "gotcha!"

[LordMortis]

My brain's not at it's full capacity of being merely bad. Was it here I read Biden isn't advertising in Michigan? I just saw youtube ad for Biden of empty spaces and it's repeated feature was "The Big House" and surrounding area completely void of people. So that isn't just directed at Michigan but specifically at the Wolverine loving Michiganders, which is an interesting choice. Ann Arborites are going to default to Biden. But the masses of suburban trust fund dyed blue and maize graduates whose parents paid $60,000 a year for the college experience so their children could be rubber stamped into a well paying job? Gotta wonder if that messaging will hit home or if they'll just turn it on Whitmer.

[Holman]

Speaking of the Electoral College:

I've seen a tweet making the rounds (maybe even quoted here, but I can't find it) that increasing the size of the House of Representatives by like 150 members would help to offset the imbalance in the Electoral College.

How does that work? What's the relationship between the House and the EC?

[Isgrimnur]

Each state has as many "electors" in the Electoral College as it has Representatives and Senators in the United States Congress, and the District of Columbia has three electors.

[Holman]

My brain's not at it's full capacity of being merely bad. Was it here I read Biden isn't advertising in Michigan? I just saw youtube ad for Biden of empty spaces and it's repeated feature was "The Big House" and surrounding area completely void of people. So that isn't just directed at Michigan but specifically at the Wolverine loving Michiganders, which is an interesting choice. Ann Arborites are going to default to Biden. But the masses of suburban trust fund dyed blue and maize graduates whose parents paid $60,000 a year for the college experience so their children could be rubber stamped into a well paying job? Gotta wonder if that messaging will hit home or if they'll just turn it on Whitmer.

Was it this ad?



It opens with a shot of the Michigan stadium but goes to other fields and other venues (schoolrooms, churches) to pin the national closure on Trump.

[Holman]

Each state has as many "electors" in the Electoral College as it has Representatives and Senators in the United States Congress, and the District of Columbia has three electors.

Ah, thanks.

So a larger House means a larger EC, diminishing the value of empty states' two senators in that count.