Octopus Overlords

My ankle injury from an ill-fated attempt at capture the flag the day after Thanksgiving acted up last night to the point it woke me up out of a dead sleep, so I tried to go to urgent care. It was close an hour early due to the volume of patients (the waiting room was full). I was both disappointed that I didn't get to see a doctor and happy that I didn't have to wait in there with everyone else.

I would recommend not doing anything that could land you in the emergency room for the next 2-3 years.

Came back to work after being off for a week+ to find that there was a Covid case in our small section. One coworker was in last week and wasn't feeling well but didn't think much of it (whoops!) until he got home from work and things got worse. Got tested and came back positive. Unfortunately, he works in a cubicled office with four other people and, at least in my experience, they rarely wear masks when in that office. So now all of them are working from home. Fortunately, they are all vaccinated (and boosted?) and so far no one else has shown any symptoms. But I think I picked a good week to be off work...

My employer is delaying a wide-scale reopening until 1/31 and staying fully remote until then. If our current trends continue, I'm expecting them to continue it.

Oh an two (that I know of) superiors announced retirement. One smoke-bombed it on 1/1, effective immediately. The other will be this summer. I suspect many more are coming; brain drain is going to be severe.

Our school isn't forcing masking, but they are not allowing parent volunteers in the building for the next couple of weeks. I'm sure that's just as effective.

Biden just gave an update on COVID. I didn't hear anything that indicates they are getting ready for a COVID blizzard. He said they just doubled the order of the Pfizer COVID therapeutics that Pfizer says are months away and doubled down yet again on vaccines. They're improving test availability (whatever that means) and surging in federal support where it is needed. Keep preparing.

stessier wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 3:44 pm My ankle injury from an ill-fated attempt at capture the flag the day after Thanksgiving acted up last night to the point it woke me up out of a dead sleep, so I tried to go to urgent care. It was close an hour early due to the volume of patients (the waiting room was full). I was both disappointed that I didn't get to see a doctor and happy that I didn't have to wait in there with everyone else.

The last time I went to an urgent care, they explicitly forbade anyone with Covid symptoms from entering. I have no idea if that's still the case, but it was nice to see that they realized that sometimes people need care for things other than Covid.

My job involves taking calls about workplace injuries, but over the last two years that's also involved COVID reports. We've just been creamed with calls the last two days. I went a long time last year without taking ANY calls about COVID, and now it's a huge portion of our calls coming in. Yesterday one of my work friends said 80% of her calls were about COVID.

It's interesting to see the wave hit from a personal POV. It's like I went from knowing nobody with Covid to knowing a dozen people with Covid in the span of a week. I was just on a Zoom call and three people out of 10 had it. We've gone from 5 or 6 hospitalized to 60+ since Christmas.

In some good news, the school board is meeting tonight to decide whether to institute a mask mandate before school starts Thursday. Based on previous decisions I feel there's a very strong likelihood they will vote for the mandate. It's at least something.

At this point, however, I've kind of resigned myself to getting it. With my wife still going into the office and my kids going to school, it seems impossible to avoid at this point.

I think the state's test positivity rate right now is approaching 30%.

YellowKing wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:27 pm At this point, however, I've kind of resigned myself to getting it. With my wife still going into the office and my kids going to school, it seems impossible to avoid at this point

That's what some want you to think and feel. It's not a given that everyone will get this - continue to be vigilant. If you start to think it's inevitable, you're likely going to engage in riskier and riskier behaviors. Do what you can to minimize risk - layer protections.

Coming from a virologist:

https://twitter.com/hjelle_brian/status ... 5794796547

Omicron IS expected to peak in next several weeks in US on somewhat varying schedule and we don't know if we'll see precipitous decline as in S Africa. Still, that's a reasonable bet. I would suggest that you defer elective exposures to fullest extent, allowing at least 2 mo.

My guess (based on the opinions of others) is that we're about to see that comparing the population of the United States to South Africa (or the UK) isn't going to work out in terms of trying to project where this is all headed.

Case in point? Alabama

https://twitter.com/BurkhalterEddie/sta ... 5269260291

OMG with these goddamn people that keep claiming that hospitals aren’t reporting hospital admissions for COVID, but really are reporting hospital admissions where you just happen to have COVID, like a mother being admitted to give birth, but is being reported in the numbers because she tested positive.

Do people think that insurance companies are handing out magic checks to hospitals for claiming to be treating COVID patients that don’t need treatment?

Who are these hospitals that they’ve heard from that just came out and admitted to reporting fraudulent data?

These smooth brains can't process that this is real so they have to invent lies to make it fit their fantasy. It doesn't help that there is a cottage industry of shitty people who profit and feed off it like vampires.

Edit: Worse there is a little truth to what they are saying in the sense the ER doctor's are saying these people aren't coming in like the last waves not able to breath as the primary vector. They are seeing people in poor health being pushed over the edge by COVID. It's different but it's driving waves of hospitalizations so...who cares if it's not 100% the same.

Smoove_B wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:35 pm

YellowKing wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:27 pm At this point, however, I've kind of resigned myself to getting it. With my wife still going into the office and my kids going to school, it seems impossible to avoid at this point

That's what some want you to think and feel. It's not a given that everyone will get this - continue to be vigilant. If you start to think it's inevitable, you're likely going to engage in riskier and riskier behaviors. Do what you can to minimize risk - layer protections.

I think it is inevitable but by the time me and mine get it, hopefully therapeutics will be widely available and so will hospital space if needed. For me, all along, it's been about reducing stress on the system and not losing someone because care wasn't adequate/available. That and fuck the idea of a long COVID. Let's go ahead and push that shit off as long as humanly possible.

We don't have it in us as species to eradicate this.

International perspective - Germany

https://twitter.com/kniggem/status/1478519544041951234

New cases today:

Germany: 30,291
Maryland: 14,494

Measures vs surge:

Germany: Indoor mask mandate, non-essential shops only for vaxxed/recovered, bars closed

Maryland: none, largely symbolic state of emergency

Germany has 14 times the population of Maryland.

The other big thing that's being circulated right now among the deny and minimize crowd is that hospitals are busy because of flu. On the surface it seems like a possibility - I mean, we are in the heart of flu season. But then you see this:

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1478526170060701697

U.S. hospitals update:

- Capacity in use: 75.9% (+0.8)
- With COVID: 16.21% (+2.3)
- With flu: 0.37% (+0.03)
- With flu and COVID: 0.04% (+0.006)

- ICU capacity in use: 78.5% (+0.9)
- With COVID: 26.1% (+1.5)
- With flu: 0.32% (+0.03)

And of course they're already moving to PCR tests are inaccurately reporting COVID-19 when really these people have the flu.

Smoove_B wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:08 pm The other big thing that's being circulated right now among the deny and minimize crowd is that hospitals are busy because of flu. On the surface it seems like a possibility - I mean, we are in the heart of flu season. But then you see this:

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1478526170060701697

U.S. hospitals update:

- Capacity in use: 75.9% (+0.8)
- With COVID: 16.21% (+2.3)
- With flu: 0.37% (+0.03)
- With flu and COVID: 0.04% (+0.006)

- ICU capacity in use: 78.5% (+0.9)
- With COVID: 26.1% (+1.5)
- With flu: 0.32% (+0.03)

And of course they're already moving to PCR tests are inaccurately reporting COVID-19 when really these people have the flu.

Omicron is like the common cold and is displacing the flu? Truly, a merciful God.

Update - school board voted to institute mask mandate. Thank the Lord for small favors.

malchior wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 6:09 pm Thanks. Good news is the wife is negative according to rapid test. I'm only exposed if she is since I rarely leave the bunker. Only thing we can do for my BIL like everyone else is just wait and see. It sucks. A distressing factor is that his wife is 8 months pregnant but then again New Years Eve adjacent festivities were just too important to pass up. I'll stop moralizing now but sheesh.

Quick update. As if this couldn't get more absurd, my wife's grandfather is now COVID positive in his assisted living facility. As I mentioned her brother is very sick right now. And now his wife who just to underline it is 8 month's pregnant is insisting on having her baby shower AT HER HOME THIS WEEKEND. They are foisting the COVID-positive brother on my MIL who lives in a tiny post-WW2 row house in the interim. It's unreal. And the reason the wife thinks the baby shower is ok is because she is negative. She gets her tests....at her beauty parlor...pure NJ trash living. People have straight up lost their minds and just have gone bonkers. I can't even process this anymore.

That sounds pretty close to the story I'd heard about friends of my family. No one pregnant, but vaccinated, symptomatic people with COVID traveling to various houses for Xmas and just hanging out because it's NBD now. I am never going to socialize with these people again.

malchior wrote:And now his wife who just to underline it is 8 month's pregnant is insisting on having her baby shower AT HER HOME THIS WEEKEND.

I feel your pain.

A friend of my sister-in-law's asked if we could host my SIL's baby shower at our house. This was back way before Omicron. We said sure.

As the date got nearer and things got bad, we expressed concern about having it at our house. The lady got really uncommunicative, so we expressed our concerns to my sister-in-law. She agreed that we should probably go virtual but she was leaving the details to her friend. Which I mean, I understand to an extent - she shouldn't have to plan her own "surprise" baby shower.

Unfortunately her friend has been a pain in the ass. First she suggested we would just have everyone wear masks. We explained masks don't help against this stuff. Then she offered to reduce the number of people at the house by suggesting our friends do Zoom while her friends came in person. WTF???? So now your friends are allowed in MY house but MY friends are not allowed in MY house?

She then proceeded to order all this stuff for the shower like an archway and flowers and all this crap to be delivered to my house. I hit the ROOF.

Long story short, I put my foot down that I wasn't having 25 random people inside my house with my partially vaccinated son. Drama ensued, feelings were hurt. We've moved it to virtual only. Nobody's happy. The planning friend probably hates me, but at least I'm not having her Covid superspreaders in my kitchen.

That is bonkers and just like weddings and funerals, COVID-19 is bringing out the best and worst in people.

Update on our numbers, now updated with backlog:

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1478559340739149826

U.S. COVID update: Number in hospital sees biggest one-day jump to date

- New cases: 838,080*
- Average: 555,461 (+60,801)
- States reporting: 47/50
- In hospital: 113,424 (+8,687)
- In ICU: 20,617 (+1,075)
- New deaths: 2,358

* Includes backlogs

RunningMn9 wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 7:12 pm OMG with these goddamn people that keep claiming that hospitals aren’t reporting hospital admissions for COVID, but really are reporting hospital admissions where you just happen to have COVID, like a mother being admitted to give birth, but is being reported in the numbers because she tested positive.

https://twitter.com/bealelab/status/147 ... I5TLQ&s=19

"Wounded"?

Mortally?

'tis but a scratch.

Smoove_B wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:35 pm

YellowKing wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:27 pm At this point, however, I've kind of resigned myself to getting it. With my wife still going into the office and my kids going to school, it seems impossible to avoid at this point

That's what some want you to think and feel. It's not a given that everyone will get this - continue to be vigilant. If you start to think it's inevitable, you're likely going to engage in riskier and riskier behaviors. Do what you can to minimize risk - layer protections.

So is masking / distancing even enough anymore? My understanding is still that "it protects you, not me". I'm asking for a specific case. At my work, I about went apeshit yesterday. We have about 30 people in a cube farm, and the policy is that if you're in your cube, you can take off your mask, even though these are 5' high cubes and you sit less than 6 feet from an average of 5 other people. All-day long, I'm hearing noses being blown, sneezes, coughing, and someone saying "I had a terrible head cold over the weekend", all in all about 4 people who are noticeably sick or talking about their head cold. Then we have a staff meeting yesterday, 13 of us in one room, one person maskless because they're eating, one person masking their chin, and our supervisor with his nose out of the mask. To top it off, four people were asking why we even have to wear masks, "it's stupid". I'm sitting there in my N95 about to explode. I've done everything right for years, and these fine specimens are getting to decide whether or not I finally get COVID by their behaviors. Am I wrong in that situation to resign myself to getting COVID at some point? It seems unavoidable regardless of my behavior, masking, distancing, or clorox gargling. And the kicker? I work for a health care organization....SMDH. We are doomed.

No, we're at the point now where your mask also protects you - which is why upgrading to an N95 (or equivalent) is critical now - especially when you're in an environment with mixed mask use. Distancing is not as important in the equation any more because of the airborne nature of the virus - it can float and persist for hours (under the right conditions). I mean, I wouldn't want to be near people coughing and sneezing, but wearing a mask in a public space that is empty is important because of the virus persisting. I've been trying to educate my parents about this for the last 6 months and they just don't seem to grasp it (and likely don't care anymore, they're done with all this). For them, they will go into an "empty" restaurant to grab a quick meal because there's no one there or only a few other unmasked people. In theory that sounds great, but when you unmask in a public space you're potentially breathing in air that is filled with viral particles from people that were there an hour ago (and are now gone). It all depends on ventilation and filtration.

I am so sorry to hear all that - no one should have to fear for their health while working and I think you have a right to be concerned. Holding meetings with that many people is absolute negligence. Allowing people to unmask right now in an open office environment? Also negligent.

What is the work from home policy currently? I'm assuming there is none just based on what you've already stated.

We are back to fulltime masking (including non-clinical areas) and no in-person meetings. N95 is the minimum requirement in clinical areas, double surgical is the minimum everywhere else. N95 is recommended everywhere else but since we are being cautious stewarding supplies for clinical areas we can't always supply N95s in non-clinical.

I'm probably 100% WFH except for labor pool callups for the next 10-14 days.

Also, the next variant has been identified:

The new variant was detected in early December in a traveler who returned to France from Cameroon, the hospital IHU Mediterrannee in Marseille announced. The returnee from Cameroon reportedly infected 12 people in southern France.
Large number of mutations

This new mutant, called B.1.640.2, has 46 mutations in an "atypical combination," according to a preprint study that has not yet been peer-reviewed.

According to this study, the two already known spike protein mutations N501Y and E484K are also found in the new coronavirus variant. The N501Y mutation, for example, was detected very early in the alpha variant. It causes the pathogen to bind more strongly to human cells and thus to spread more easily in the body.

E484K is one of the escape mutations located directly in the spike protein and thus possibly reduces the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines.

What does any of this mean? We'll see. Could be something, might be nothing. Time will tell.

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Jan 05, 2022 11:29 am Also, the next variant has been identified:

The new variant was detected in early December in a traveler who returned to France from Cameroon, the hospital IHU Mediterrannee in Marseille announced. The returnee from Cameroon reportedly infected 12 people in southern France.
Large number of mutations

This new mutant, called B.1.640.2, has 46 mutations in an "atypical combination," according to a preprint study that has not yet been peer-reviewed.

According to this study, the two already known spike protein mutations N501Y and E484K are also found in the new coronavirus variant. The N501Y mutation, for example, was detected very early in the alpha variant. It causes the pathogen to bind more strongly to human cells and thus to spread more easily in the body.

E484K is one of the escape mutations located directly in the spike protein and thus possibly reduces the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines.

What does any of this mean? We'll see. Could be something, might be nothing. Time will tell.

From my understanding, it's been around for at least a month and a half, it's just that the preprint dropped a few days ago.

https://twitter.com/PeacockFlu/status/1 ... 3903839237

Yeah, sorry that wasn't clear - it's right at the top - identified in early December. What it means, we'll see. Though if I had to bet money on somewhere other than the United States (1) identifying and (2) sharing that it's in circulation here, I would. Or any nation, at this point - especially after what we did to South Africa. I think the travel ban was only lifted last week.

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Jan 05, 2022 10:49 am I mean, I wouldn't want to be near people coughing and sneezing, but wearing a mask in a public space that is empty is important because of the virus persisting. I've been trying to educate my parents about this for the last 6 months and they just don't seem to grasp it (and likely don't care anymore, they're done with all this). For them, they will go into an "empty" restaurant to grab a quick meal because there's no one there or only a few other unmasked people. In theory that sounds great, but when you unmask in a public space you're potentially breathing in air that is filled with viral particles from people that were there an hour ago (and are now gone). It all depends on ventilation and filtration.

This seems like a pretty big shift from prior understandings of the virus - what is basis for the new understanding? I've known for awhile that early views of the virus as just big droplets that fall to the ground quickly was out of date, and that at a minimum there were likely small droplets / particles that would take longer to fall to the ground. But like the possibility of getting sick in an empty room because someone was there an hour or more before who was sick seems like a major major change. Are there known cases of transmission along these lines, or is this more like "we can't rule out that people might get sick this way?"

Also I saw a local news reports on CDC policy revisions last night where they described the new policy as follows: "the CDC says that you should take a test after 5 days. What if you can't or don't want to test? Then...don't worry!"

Gave me a morbid LOL.

El Guapo wrote: Wed Jan 05, 2022 1:15 pm This seems like a pretty big shift from prior understandings of the virus - what is basis for the new understanding? I've known for awhile that early views of the virus as just big droplets that fall to the ground quickly was out of date, and that at a minimum there were likely small droplets / particles that would take longer to fall to the ground. But like the possibility of getting sick in an empty room because someone was there an hour or more before who was sick seems like a major major change. Are there known cases of transmission along these lines, or is this more like "we can't rule out that people might get sick this way?"

There's strong evidence of indirect transmission occurring in a few observational studies that have been released. This goes back to the basic public health idea of the precautionary principle where in the absence of evidence that proves something is safe, let's assume there's a potential for harm and act accordingly until we can scientifically figure out what is or isn't problematic. As suspected, this is not a popular opinion, especially for businesses or schools.

The environmental conditions that encourage indirect spread haven't been quantified, but just going off what we know having people unmasked, indoors and with poor ventilation would be a problem *if* indirect spread was possible. And so if we assume it is (anecdotally it seems to be occurring) our recommendations run counter to what is currently being encouraged in various states, municipalities, schools and businesses.

I need to repeat - professionally speaking, things are insanely weird for me right now. I am in no way claiming superiority or saying that I look down on anyone, but to have your skills, knowledge and experiences widely ignored because "that would be too difficult" or "that's too much to ask" is while knowing people are going to get sick and some will die is...really uncomfortable.

If you believe/accept that this is an airborne pathogen, it's harder to convince someone that this is a "personal responsibility" issue - we all share the air. The burden shifts from telling individuals that they need to vaccinate themselves to the government/businesses need to make sure the air is safe for us to breathe. Very, very different plan of action.

As pointed out last month, if we still had feces in our drinking water, would we tell people to just personal responsibility their way into drinking it? You need to make sure you're not crapping in your own drinking water - don't worry about what I'm doing to this water over here, just worry about the water you're drinking right now. It sounds absurd - which is why we regulate drinking water to make sure it's safe for people to consume. Or we should be, anyway.

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Jan 05, 2022 10:49 am

What is the work from home policy currently? I'm assuming there is none just based on what you've already stated.

We gave that up months ago. I believe the resistance to going back to that is a combination of managers feeling out of touch with their reports, everyone demanding printers and multiple monitors to work at home with, and the reticence to deal with the logistics of that, coupled with a general lack of urgency by the higher-ups to deal with it. Morale amongst everyone is very low for various reasons, but for those of us who believe in the virus, which is a laughably low number of folks, is very low. The general belief is that if you're vaxxed and boosted, you're good. By the time reality takes hold, I believe the horse will be well out of the barn.

everyone demanding printers and multiple monitors to work at home

We had that demand, we said buy them but don't bill them back to the company. That demand went away. Though a number of people did buy monitors.

Is the thinking on outdoors safety without masks (eg, very rare unless you're in a crowd) changed with regards to Omicron? Cause I do note that a few countries (France, Italy, Spain) have instituted outdoor mask mandates. I'm wondering if that's more out of an abundance of caution, or if something specific has changed their thinking.

Welp both of my wife's former employers (chemical manufacturing) just shut down due to lack of staff. The entire office staff at both are out. The warehouses are out. This didn't happen during Alpha though I could dig up a post where all the men got wiped out and the women were running the warehouse like it was WW2. Now they are just shut. My wife's current employer has fairly strict COVID guidelines. For instance, one of her people tested positive and they won't let him come back for 10 days. We'll see how long they hold out. So shutdown via infection. Very orderly.

But where it is getting very real (and starting a mild local panic) is we just got notice that the recycling contractor for Middlesex County NJ, Solterra (story here about similar issues in a neighboring county - has been hit hard and they are saying that pick ups are delayed at least a day. Not a big deal...yet but I can't help but wonder if we're far from essential services shutting down for a week or two.