Daehawk wrote: Fri Apr 08, 2022 6:08 pm
I dont get it.
If I'm understanding it correctly...
"The Federalist is an American conservative online magazine and podcast" ... and they posted a tweet suggesting that everyone boycott(?) Disney by going to DollyWood (or at least they want people to support Dolly over Disney). Apparently they assumed that Dolly is conservative (because, as others suggested above, she is a Country singer). However, apparently Dolly is not remotely conservative. Which is what Grace Segers is pointing out.
Re: Political Randomness
Posted: Fri Apr 08, 2022 6:43 pm
by malchior
This is the same mistake that JD Vance made several times in Ohio. Trying to manipulate the deplorables but having zero awareness of their culture.
Re: Political Randomness
Posted: Fri Apr 08, 2022 6:45 pm
by Carpet_pissr
Daehawk wrote: Fri Apr 08, 2022 6:08 pm
I dont get it.
The conservative, Reich-wing Federalists *spits* are pissed at Disney's current "pro-gay politics stance". So they are suggesting all good social conservative asshats spend their money at Dollywood as an alternative. What said Federalists don't know is that Dolly has been somewhat of a gay rights supporter over the years, and some say she IS gay (I have no idea, and don't really care). Which is hilariously ironic. Assumption being that country music = "our peeps" which is probably MOSTLY true, with some notable country "greats" exceptions, icons even (Parton, (suggested) Cash, Nelson to name a few). Thought TBH Cash is iffy at best here, but would love to have that argument in a separate thread.
This is what happens when you view the world in black and white IMO. You make stupid mistakes like this that make you look like even more of an asshat than you are. And for these fuckers, that is truly an accomplishment.
EDIT: I KNEW I was going to get BAMmed, and sho nuf...BAM!
Daehawk wrote: Fri Apr 08, 2022 6:08 pm
I dont get it.
The conservative, Reich-wing Federalists *spits* are pissed at Disney's current "pro-gay politics stance". So they are suggesting all good social conservative asshats spend their money at Dollywood as an alternative. What said Federalists don't know is that Dolly has been somewhat of a gay rights supporter over the years, and some say she IS gay (I have no idea, and don't really care). Which is hilariously ironic. Assumption being that country music = "our peeps" which is probably MOSTLY true, with some notable country "greats" exceptions, icons even (Parton, (suggested) Cash, Nelson to name a few). Thought TBH Cash is iffy at best here, but would love to have that argument in a separate thread.
This is what happens when you view the world in black and white IMO. You make stupid mistakes like this that make you look like even more of an asshat than you are. And for these fuckers, that is truly an accomplishment.
EDIT: I KNEW I was going to get BAMmed, and sho nuf...BAM!
Oh I see now. Ok ty. Dolly would bitch slap the idiots. I also for some reason thought of Disney as anti gay. Their 'wholesome' bs.
Daehawk wrote: Fri Apr 08, 2022 6:08 pm
I dont get it.
The conservative, Reich-wing Federalists *spits* are pissed at Disney's current "pro-gay politics stance". So they are suggesting all good social conservative asshats spend their money at Dollywood as an alternative. What said Federalists don't know is that Dolly has been somewhat of a gay rights supporter over the years, and some say she IS gay (I have no idea, and don't really care). Which is hilariously ironic. Assumption being that country music = "our peeps" which is probably MOSTLY true, with some notable country "greats" exceptions, icons even (Parton, (suggested) Cash, Nelson to name a few). Thought TBH Cash is iffy at best here, but would love to have that argument in a separate thread.
This is what happens when you view the world in black and white IMO. You make stupid mistakes like this that make you look like even more of an asshat than you are. And for these fuckers, that is truly an accomplishment.
EDIT: I KNEW I was going to get BAMmed, and sho nuf...BAM!
Eh. I'd give you credit. You had more specifics. I was just giving it my best interpretation without the facts. I am glad that I mostly got it right. Thanks for the additional information!
Oh I see now. Ok ty. Dolly would bitch slap the idiots. I also for some reason thought of Disney as anti gay.
They weren't - I'm pretty sure they were corporate leader in giving domestic partners rights before marriage was legalized. Which is not to say they have a perfect track record.
Re: Political Randomness
Posted: Sat Apr 09, 2022 10:02 am
by Max Peck
As I understand it, the current CEO has been under a lot of pressure from Disney employees for not coming out against Florida's "Don't Say Gay" legislation sooner and more forcefully. Now that he has, Disney is under fire from conservatives, so they're sort of catching flak from all sides at the moment.
Daehawk wrote: Fri Apr 08, 2022 6:08 pm
I dont get it.
If I'm understanding it correctly...
"The Federalist is an American conservative online magazine and podcast" ... and they posted a tweet suggesting that everyone boycott(?) Disney by going to DollyWood (or at least they want people to support Dolly over Disney). Apparently they assumed that Dolly is conservative (because, as others suggested above, she is a Country singer). However, apparently Dolly is not remotely conservative. Which is what Grace Segers is pointing out.
Ahhhh thank you. The deplorable are sheep. Sheep that call others sheep.
Maybe it was Jews Walt hated in the day. I know Disney was anti something a long time.
Re: Political Randomness
Posted: Sun Apr 10, 2022 5:30 pm
by Unagi
Daehawk wrote: Sat Apr 09, 2022 12:35 pm
Maybe it was Jews Walt hated in the day. I know Disney was anti something a long time.
Well, they are a very old company with a body of work that reflects those... less enlightened times.
Colin Jost made a pretty good joke about all of this a couple weeks ago:
Daehawk wrote: Fri Apr 08, 2022 6:08 pm
I dont get it.
If I'm understanding it correctly...
"The Federalist is an American conservative online magazine and podcast" ... and they posted a tweet suggesting that everyone boycott(?) Disney by going to DollyWood (or at least they want people to support Dolly over Disney). Apparently they assumed that Dolly is conservative (because, as others suggested above, she is a Country singer). However, apparently Dolly is not remotely conservative. Which is what Grace Segers is pointing out.
Ahhhh thank you. The deplorable are sheep. Sheep that call others sheep.
Maybe it was Jews Walt hated in the day. I know Disney was anti something a long time.
Yeah Walt Disney was famously not crazy about Jews. And actually my daughter back in maybe 2nd grade was doing a project on him for school, and I mentioned that to her. A few weeks later I got her project back and it was Walt Disney's name with like a word dictionary around him. And it had "started Disney" "made movies" "created Disney World" as well as "Not crazy about Jews". Well, good that she was listening.
Re: Political Randomness
Posted: Tue Apr 12, 2022 7:30 am
by malchior
I'm so tired. This system keeps spitting out morally outrageous outcomes. We're transforming into something incredibly dark here.
New York's latest political scandal only involves our lieutenant governor. Not even the actual governor! We're really slacking off here.
Lt. Gov. Brian A. Benjamin of New York, the state’s second-in-command to Gov. Kathy Hochul, surrendered early Tuesday morning to face a federal bribery conspiracy indictment in connection with a scheme to funnel fraudulent donations to a previous campaign, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Re: Political Randomness
Posted: Tue Apr 12, 2022 10:16 am
by Defiant
El Guapo wrote: Mon Apr 11, 2022 4:09 pm
Yeah Walt Disney was famously not crazy about Jews
I think you're find his views about Jews were crazy.
Re: Political Randomness
Posted: Tue Apr 12, 2022 11:50 am
by Pyperkub
AWS260 wrote:New York's latest political scandal only involves our lieutenant governor. Not even the actual governor! We're really slacking off here.
Lt. Gov. Brian A. Benjamin of New York, the state’s second-in-command to Gov. Kathy Hochul, surrendered early Tuesday morning to face a federal bribery conspiracy indictment in connection with a scheme to funnel fraudulent donations to a previous campaign, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Gee, who would have thought that campaign finance is corrupt?
Re: Political Randomness
Posted: Wed Apr 13, 2022 12:01 pm
by Alefroth
malchior wrote: Wed Sep 01, 2021 7:03 pm
He might end up getting impeached. Oh no. What will this rich & clearly powerful guy do now that he got away with hit and run murder?
Jason Ravnsborg was suspended ahead of a Senate trial, which could result in permanent removal from office if a two-thirds majority votes to convict him.
Re: Political Randomness
Posted: Wed Apr 13, 2022 1:12 pm
by malchior
31 Republicans in the SD House voted against impeachment. We'll see what'll happen in the SD Senate. Will they signal moral decay or stand up for the law.
Re: Political Randomness
Posted: Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:13 pm
by gbasden
malchior wrote: Tue Apr 12, 2022 7:30 am
I'm so tired. This system keeps spitting out morally outrageous outcomes. We're transforming into something incredibly dark here.
Yeah. Of everything that happened that summer, that seemed clearly the most egregious. How they could have been cleared is unfathomable.
Re: Political Randomness
Posted: Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:26 pm
by Max Peck
Clearly the system can't be racist if the police are brutalizing old white men with impunity. /s
Re: Political Randomness
Posted: Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:26 pm
by Daehawk
Its the POS that is 'merica now.
Re: Political Randomness
Posted: Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:28 pm
by malchior
It's not surprising. This goes into a whole different realm but labor arbitration involving police unions almost always favor the officers (story for a reference but that realm is deep).
Re: Political Randomness
Posted: Thu Apr 14, 2022 11:40 am
by Carpet_pissr
gbasden wrote: Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:13 pm How they could have been cleared is unfathomable.
"that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.”
-Inigo Montoya
Totes fathomable. I would even say typical and unsurprising in the current political/rule of law(lessness) climate.
Re: Political Randomness
Posted: Thu Apr 14, 2022 3:16 pm
by malchior
Nate Silver's journey into incoherence and irrelevance is pretty much complete. Political handicapping was his touchstone and this idea he has been pushing lately is patently laughable. We have reams of evidence that people are voting in line with all sorts of fake issues. His belief that somehow there is some overarching alignment between the state of the economy and (edit: party affiliation) is also...baffling. What's the theory here? Who knows because he doesn't actually explain any of this in any sort of coherent rigorous way.
malchior wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 3:16 pm
Nate Silver's journey into incoherence and irrelevance is pretty much complete. Political handicapping was his touchstone and this idea he has been pushing lately is patently laughable. We have reams of evidence that people are voting in line with all sorts of fake issues. His belief that somehow there is alignment between the state of the economy and economics is also...baffling. What's the theory here? Who knows because he doesn't actually explain any of this in any sort of coherent rigorous way.
I stopped reading his stuff quite a long time ago, and have no idea what his current ideas are, but maybe he's throwing shit at the wall to see what sticks, maybe the crazier the better (to get attention that he lost years ago). ??? No idea.
gbasden wrote: Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:13 pm How they could have been cleared is unfathomable.
"that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.”
-Inigo Montoya
Totes fathomable. I would even say typical and unsurprising in the current political/rule of law(lessness) climate.
In any just world it would be unfathomable. In this highly unjust timeline it's par for the course and expected.
Re: Political Randomness
Posted: Thu Apr 14, 2022 6:56 pm
by Kurth
malchior wrote: Wed Apr 13, 2022 1:12 pm
31 Republicans in the SD House voted against impeachment. We'll see what'll happen in the SD Senate. Will they signal moral decay or stand up for the law.
Assuming this is rhetorical. Cause we all know exactly what’s going to happen.
Remember, no moral red lines. That’s party doctrine at this point.
Re: Political Randomness
Posted: Thu Apr 14, 2022 7:19 pm
by Alefroth
So why did impeachment pass the House?
Re: Political Randomness
Posted: Thu Apr 14, 2022 9:24 pm
by Isgrimnur
Because 28 Republicans and the 8 Democrats voted for it.
Isgrimnur wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 9:24 pm
Because 28 Republicans and the 8 Democrats voted for it.
So party doctrine did not apply?
Shocking, I know.
Re: Political Randomness
Posted: Fri Apr 15, 2022 6:49 am
by malchior
Kurth wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 6:56 pmAssuming this is rhetorical. Cause we all know exactly what’s going to happen.
Remember, no moral red lines. That’s party doctrine at this point.
Semi-rhetorical.
You have to put aside that it took 8 Democrats to overcome the majority of SD GOP House Reps voting against impeachment. Also relevant is that this was after they conducted a sham House Investigation which didn't even consult law enforcement or read the main investigation into the record before recommending against Impeachment.
Then there is Ravnsborg himself. His press release before the impeachment vote is something. He specifies the wrong date for when he killed a man while also later in the letter claiming to have marked the date on his calendar. It is unclear if he is using the right or wrong date when he says, 'I mark it on my calendar each day and reflect'. Which I'll also argue doesn't make any sense. I can hear John Oliver in my head showing a graphic of a big calendar with each day marked with that wrong date with a reminder to 'reflect'. Anyway, that absurdity is completely on brand.
Also I note that the "apology" he gave to family immediately preceded consequences - how convenient - but also managed to focus on how it impacted him - the killer. Just another garbage human demonstrating his garbage human bona fides.
The letter included multiple errors and appeared to have been a draft that was not completed before its release. In one sentence, words that were supposed to have been deleted appeared as strike throughs. In the opening sentence he had the wrong date of the accident.
But those opening paragraphs of the letter slammed Noem, who called on his resignation and then impeachment over a year ago. Ravnsborg accused the governor of using the accident as a political weapon. Her motivation, he said, was to install a new attorney general of her choosing.
...
He accused Noem of violating his due process rights and privacy rights, and said that his office's investigations into her activities played a role in her animosity toward him.
...
Ravnsborg also issued an apology to Boever's family.
"It has been 576 days since the accident," he wrote. "I mark it on my calendar each day and reflect. I want to say, 'I am Sorry'. Every day I think about Joe Boever, a man I had never met, who changed my life forever. I am sorry the family has had to endure this tragedy in so many ways and has been put in the middle of this highly political situation."
Isgrimnur wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 9:24 pm
Because 28 Republicans and the 8 Democrats voted for it.
So party doctrine did not apply?
Shocking, I know.
It's also a sorta outcome. The majority of GOP members still voted to not impeach. And the process...was not great to get there. The Senate trial could very well exonerate him because there are only 3 Democrats out of 35 in the SD Senate. Worse this is essentially watching infighting between Trumpists. Is this happening because of 'rule of law' or local party power politics? It sure looks a ton like the latter.
Re: Political Randomness
Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2022 11:34 am
by El Guapo
malchior wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 3:16 pm
Nate Silver's journey into incoherence and irrelevance is pretty much complete. Political handicapping was his touchstone and this idea he has been pushing lately is patently laughable. We have reams of evidence that people are voting in line with all sorts of fake issues. His belief that somehow there is some overarching alignment between the state of the economy and (edit: party affiliation) is also...baffling. What's the theory here? Who knows because he doesn't actually explain any of this in any sort of coherent rigorous way.
To me I think there's a pretty big distinction between like the Russian hack and release of e-mails (which I think would be hard to dispute that that had a big impact) and Russian troll farm-esque activity ("Comes to rally today to support on Trump against Clinton!!!"), which *could* have had a material impact but that's a tougher / less clear argument to make.
I think the point is essentially that none of the past few elections have been out of line with fundamentals in a way that calls out for some unusual explicatory factor. E.g.:
2016 = unpopular incumbent party candidate + unpopular challenger + incumbent party seeking a third consecutive term + ok but not great economy = incredibly close but narrow incumbent defeat.
2018 = wildly unpopular incumbent party + incumbent control of all government branches + midterm election = big opposition party win
2020 = unpopular incumbent + ok economy but with covid disruptions = narrow opposition victory
I think it's just that the headline results and margins of victory aren't all that different from what might well have been predicted in 2015 before we knew who the candidates were and the key issues. Which doesn't mean that 'misinformation' is irrelevant just that the fact that these results weren't out of line with what you would have expected means that there is probably a higher burden of proof on showing that it matters.
It also depends on how you define "misinformation". To me in understanding the 2016 results for example I'm incline to think that misinformation / troll farm type activity had a MUCH lower impact than mainstream media outlets treating Trump effectively as a regular candidate when he obviously wasn't, and treating Clinton as more radioactive / controversial than she should have been. Is that 'misinformation'? I would be inclined to regard it as such but I don't think that most people would define that as misinformation.
malchior wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 3:16 pm
Nate Silver's journey into incoherence and irrelevance is pretty much complete. Political handicapping was his touchstone and this idea he has been pushing lately is patently laughable. We have reams of evidence that people are voting in line with all sorts of fake issues. His belief that somehow there is some overarching alignment between the state of the economy and (edit: party affiliation) is also...baffling. What's the theory here? Who knows because he doesn't actually explain any of this in any sort of coherent rigorous way.
To me I think there's a pretty big distinction between like the Russian hack and release of e-mails (which I think would be hard to dispute that that had a big impact) and Russian troll farm-esque activity ("Comes to rally today to support on Trump against Clinton!!!"), which *could* have had a material impact but that's a tougher / less clear argument to make.
IMO that is one and the same activity. The assessments I've seen, my own thoughts, even revelations from the Mueller report point to strong evidence that the Russians had an organized campaign to influence our elections. Troll farms, hacking, and other forms of misinformation were part of a single larger campaign to impact our elections and they succeeded beyond anyone's expectations. They were targeted but also opportunistic. For example, the hacking portion provided some of fuel for the misinformation campaign to leverage. They were just more effective because they were anchored to tangible evidence but that didn't also prevent manufactured stories as well. Beyond the Russia angle we had and still have destabilizing impacts of social media that amplified the foreign attacks and paired up with domestic misinformation as well.
It's impossible IMO to cohesively and competently analyze recent elections if they are handwaved aside in favor of 'mostly the economy' type analysis. That model is just too simple. That is part of the way I evaluate this at least. Especially considering how even the most outlandish rumors are able to be amplified nowadays. It also doesn't model the why the electorate is so divided in such exploitable ways which are also misinformation driven.
malchior wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 3:16 pm
Nate Silver's journey into incoherence and irrelevance is pretty much complete. Political handicapping was his touchstone and this idea he has been pushing lately is patently laughable. We have reams of evidence that people are voting in line with all sorts of fake issues. His belief that somehow there is some overarching alignment between the state of the economy and (edit: party affiliation) is also...baffling. What's the theory here? Who knows because he doesn't actually explain any of this in any sort of coherent rigorous way.
To me I think there's a pretty big distinction between like the Russian hack and release of e-mails (which I think would be hard to dispute that that had a big impact) and Russian troll farm-esque activity ("Comes to rally today to support on Trump against Clinton!!!"), which *could* have had a material impact but that's a tougher / less clear argument to make.
IMO that is one and the same activity. The assessments I've seen, my own thoughts, even revelations from the Mueller report point to strong evidence that the Russians had an organized campaign to influence our elections. Troll farms, hacking, and other forms of misinformation were part of a single larger campaign to impact our elections and they succeeded beyond anyone's expectations. They were targeted but also opportunistic. For example, the hacking portion provided some of fuel for the misinformation campaign to leverage. They were just more effective because they were anchored to tangible evidence but that didn't also prevent manufactured stories as well. Beyond the Russia angle we had and still have destabilizing impacts of social media that amplified the foreign attacks and paired up with domestic misinformation as well.
It's impossible IMO to cohesively and competently analyze recent elections if they are handwaved aside in favor of 'mostly the economy' type analysis. That model is just too simple. That is part of the way I evaluate this at least. Especially considering how even the most outlandish rumors are able to be amplified nowadays. It also doesn't model the why the electorate is so divided in such exploitable ways which are also misinformation driven.
There was clearly an organized Russian campaign to influence our elections. The question is to what extent has it succeeded in terms of changing electoral outcomes, and if so which parts of the campaign have done so. Has anyone written a comprehensive paper on this question? That Trump won in 2016 isn't really enough to conclude that the Russian campaign changed the outcome. Not that this would be an easy thing to prove, but I think we need more than Russian campaign + Trump win.
Really what I'd like to see is a state level analysis, because that would reduce the number of interfering variables, plus because it's way easier for me to believe that Russian misinformation changed ~ 80,000 votes in the upper midwest than for me to believe that it changed millions of votes nationwide.
And in terms of partisan divide, I think the story there is much more about the creation of a conservative media bubble (Fox News + talk radio). That ties into the Russia stuff in that Russia clearly attempted to benefit from that (intentionally as well via the NRA links) though that predates Russian interference.
Re: Political Randomness
Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2022 12:50 pm
by LawBeefaroni
malchior wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 3:16 pm
Nate Silver's journey into incoherence and irrelevance is pretty much complete. Political handicapping was his touchstone and this idea he has been pushing lately is patently laughable. We have reams of evidence that people are voting in line with all sorts of fake issues. His belief that somehow there is some overarching alignment between the state of the economy and (edit: party affiliation) is also...baffling. What's the theory here? Who knows because he doesn't actually explain any of this in any sort of coherent rigorous way.
His used of underbaked seems backwards to me. Seems like the word he was looking for was overbaked.
overbaked
/ˌōvərˈbākt/
adjective
1.
(of food) baked too much or for too long.
"an overbaked cake"
2. done to excess; exaggerated.
"a laughably overbaked conclusion"
Re: Political Randomness
Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2022 1:23 pm
by LordMortis
He should be challenged on the use of the word so that he doubles down and comes up with an elaborate explanation of his expertise in linguistics based on his background in statistical analysis. Perhaps he meant half-baked?
Definition of half-baked
1a : poorly developed or carried out a half-baked idea half-baked research
b : lacking adequate planning or forethought a half-baked scheme for getting rich
c : lacking in judgment, intelligence, or common sense
Maybe he's got the brain fog.
Re: Political Randomness
Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2022 8:27 am
by malchior
I can't roll my eyes hard enough. This caused the evacuation of the Capitol. An advertised event by another branch of the government.
In retaliation for Disney's outspokenness about Florida's "Don't Say Gay" bill, the Florida general assembly passed a bill revoking Disney's Reedy Creek Improvement District. Here's a thread about how this is kinda disastrous for Orange and Ocela counties, and how might actually be a boon for Disney. Clearly no one thought this one through enough.
