Octopus Overlords

Day 2 Vote Count
Votes required for lynch - 10

Against Scoop (6) - RMC, pr0ner, El Guapo, bb2112, Vorret,tru1cy
Against El Guapo (4) - redrun, Lagom LIte, theohall, Grundbegriff
Against bb2112 (4) - LordMortis, Unagi, Lassr, Chaosraven
Against Grundbegriff (1) - Scoop20906

No votes (4) - Remus West, Qantaga, purge, triggercut

There are 16 villagers + 3 wolves alive. The deadline for the lynch vote is June 20th at 9am Eastern time.




Votes for Seance Requires as least 10 Votes of which the Medium must be 1

Seance Newcastle (1) - Vorret

Scoop, Lassr, and somebody.

So, who else has Lassr on their watch list?

redrun wrote:Scoop, Lassr, and somebody.

So, who else has Lassr on their watch list?

I have him as my 3rd wolf currently but it would take some strong arming to get put him high enough to vote for today as my beliefs are more strongly bound to vorret and much much much more strongly bound to bb2112:

bb2112
vorret
lassr
Grund
Guapo
RMC
Scoop

redrun wrote:Scoop, Lassr, and somebody.

So, who else has Lassr on their watch list?

I thought I saw a peeping tom in my bathroom window last night. Hope you enjoyed the show.

and to make my innocence official...I am not a wolf.

Vorret wrote:I was going to suggest myself but then I realize it's stupid since LM will think I'm the Beserker...

I like the medium idea, we know now what's up instead of tomorrow.

Vorret wrote: So I'm gonna start

 Séance Newcastle 
 


Am I doing this right?

Yes, if you want to use up the Séance on someone other than the seer...

Vorret wrote:I'm also a villager but if you want to lynch (or scan one) hit me, I've come up a lot in recent discussions so I'd be happy to sacrifice myself for the good of the village.

Vorret wrote:To me Scoop is acting like good Scoop but I might be missing something

25 minutes later:

Vorret wrote:

Lassr wrote:

Lassr wrote:

Vorret wrote:To me Scoop is acting like good Scoop but I might be missing something

Scoop is acting odd.

I don't know if it is good odd or bad odd though. My gut is starting to think good but I haven't bothered to move my vote yet.

I hit submit to soon...

my hesitancy on my moving my vote is centered around his admission after the last game that he does not handle being a bad guy well and the lying bothers him. So I keep wondering if this is his approach to handling that pressure. Disinterest and absence.

Fair point, I prefer scoop to EG but I'd prefer Theo over Scoop, sadly, since he's in the "good" list he's untouchable for now which is annoying (such a long list).

I guess we can move on with that lynch and get some more info going into tomorrow

 Scoop 
 

and finally he chimes in with a picture to reinforce the Lassr/Scoop 'disagreement'.

Vorret wrote:

Ok. I could vote Vorret today. By his own admission (twice) he's a villager.

Chaosraven wrote:

pr0ner wrote:Interestingly, the only people who haven't voted yet are all assumed to be good. The remaining wolves have all placed a vote.

well then let's look at that for a moment

Sure.

First, I guess I slightly goofed there. I thought Qantaga had voted today. It seems like, from Stessier's latest list, he has not.

Anyway, here's who voted for Bakhtosh when he was hung on Day 1:

Qantaga, Unagi, Chaosraven, pr0ner, Lassr, Scoop, tru1cy, Vorret, LordMortis, Remus West, Newcastle

Here's who voted for NO ONE:

Purge, Grundbegriff, Lagom Lite

Here's who voted for someone else:

Against redrun (2) - RMC, Bakhtosh
Against Vorret (1) - triggercut
Against Remus (1) - redrun
Against theohall (1) - El Guapo
Against Purge (1) - bb2112
Against bb2112 (1) - theohall

The uncontested, pretty much sure to be good, are Lagom Lite, tru1cy, theohall, triggercut, redrun, Remus West, Chaosraven, and purge. Newcastle is dead.

From today:

Against Scoop (6) - RMC, pr0ner, El Guapo, bb2112, Vorret,tru1cy
Against El Guapo (4) - redrun, Lagom LIte, theohall, Grundbegriff
Against bb2112 (4) - LordMortis, Unagi, Lassr, Chaosraven
Against Grundbegriff (1) - Scoop20906

No votes (4) - Remus West, Qantaga, purge, triggercut

I've struck through everyone that is either a) known to be good, or b) voted for our Day 1 wolf.

That leaves us El Guapo, bb2112, RMC, and Grundbegriff.

As I've said earlier, logic doesn't always play a role in these games, so all three remaining wolves being in this list is a long shot. There's a good chance there's a wolf in somewhere amongst the train who voted fro Bakhtosh. However, perhaps we should focus our energies today on one of those four - the vote tally supports it.

Thoughts?

And, if I'm going to follow my own train of thought here:

 withdraw scoop20906 
 


 bb2112 
 

I only made it to page 19 in reading back last night. I'll be on vacation (with internet access) starting today, so it may be Sunday before I can finish reading back. So far, the re-read has only reinforced my previous guesses.

As for Grund, he's either wolf, villager, Hunter, or Seer (if Remus is spoofing). The odds greatly favor that he is either wolf or villager. What strikes me as strange is that, if he is a villager, he's not relishing his "favorite role" (or he's doing it in an oddly subdued manner).

As for RMC, redrun found an interesting post here. As I continue to read RMC's posts, there isn't much substance to them. I realize we're only on Day 2 and I might find more substantial posts from him after page 19, but he doesn't seem to be looking very hard.

As for bb, he's been more forceful than usual. Most of that has been directed towards me, so I'm sure my perspective may be skewed. As LM has mentioned, he championed Purge while the Bakhtosh train was just getting underway. There's also his strong argument against the Cabal revealing. While I certainly understand that side of the argument, his seemed more enthusiastic than reasoned. A wolf on Lagom's Good list would naturally be against the Cabal revealing, especially if there are two or three wolves on the Good list (which, of course, remains to be seen).
.
I do think El Guapo, Vorret, and Lassr need more scrutiny, but not as much as Grund, RMC, and bb.

 bb2112 
 

Interesting. I was composing my post while pr0ner posted his. I wish OO gave a warning that other posts have been made like GT does.

That's a nice bit of analysis pr0ner.

pr0ner wrote: Here's who voted for someone else:

Against redrun (2) - RMC, Bakhtosh
Against Vorret (1) - triggercut
Against Remus (1) - redrun
Against theohall (1) - El Guapo
Against Purge (1) - bb2112
Against bb2112 (1) - theohall

Most of the time you'll find a wolf off voting somewhere else besides the current train. Bakhtosh here was a wolf but he wouldn't be voting for himself anyhow. Would two wolves place lone votes on the same person? So would Bahktosh join fellow wolf RMC on a vote against redrun which we now assume to be the mentalist? I could see wolves piling on lone votes against a fellow wolf to use as "proof" later that they were trying to lynch a wolf. That's not the case here which makes me lean possibly good for RMC.

El Guapo on theohall and bb2112 on Purge. I bet one of these is a wolf. The other wolves are probably on the bakhtosh vote.

Lassr wrote:

pr0ner wrote: Here's who voted for someone else:

Against redrun (2) - RMC, Bakhtosh
Against Vorret (1) - triggercut
Against Remus (1) - redrun
Against theohall (1) - El Guapo
Against Purge (1) - bb2112
Against bb2112 (1) - theohall

Most of the time you'll find a wolf off voting somewhere else besides the current train. Bakhtosh here was a wolf but he wouldn't be voting for himself anyhow. Would two wolves place lone votes on the same person? So would Bahktosh join fellow wolf RMC on a vote against redrun which we now assume to be the mentalist? I could see wolves piling on lone votes against a fellow wolf to use as "proof" later that they were trying to lynch a wolf. That's not the case here which makes me lean possibly good for RMC.

El Guapo on theohall and bb2112 on Purge. I bet one of these is a wolf. The other wolves are probably on the bakhtosh vote.

and again I keep forgetting about Grund (Thanks Q). He also sitting there with no vote so add him to the El Guapo, BB list. Out of sight out of mind is working for him it seems.

pr0ner wrote:
That leaves us El Guapo, bb2112, RMC, and Grundbegriff.

Even more interesting, your voting analysis and my intuition from yesterday line up pretty closely:

Qantaga wrote:
Wolfish: Grund, RMC, bb

Mysterious-ish: Lassr, Vorret, El Guapo

Not sure if we're both on target or way off. Likely, a mix of the two, but I'm intrigued by the coincidence.

stessier wrote: Against Scoop (6) - RMC, pr0ner, El Guapo, bb2112, Vorret,tru1cy
Against El Guapo (4) - redrun, Lagom LIte, theohall, Grundbegriff
Against bb2112 (4) - LordMortis, Unagi, Lassr, Chaosraven
Against Grundbegriff (1) - Scoop20906

BB2112 is also on my alternative list. Should he turn up wolf, it leads me towards a more narrow field...

 Withdraw El Guapo 
 

 BB2112 
 

This should be vote number 7 of the 10 needed.

My opinion on votes is that they are not very good indicators of 'wolfyness'. It's Wolf 101 to use your vote in a way to throw off attention - and then more veteran wolves use that to make themselves 'obviously not a wolf' (like maybe being the Nth vote, is a good example). So, ultimately I have trouble putting too much faith in what I feel I see in the vote analysis. BB2112 has had a number of exchanges where I felt he wasn't nearly his standard self - and that's whats mostly behind my vote.

Unagi wrote:My opinion on votes is that they are not very good indicators of 'wolfyness'. It's Wolf 101 to use your vote in a way to throw off attention - and then more veteran wolves use that to make themselves 'obviously not a wolf' (like maybe being the Nth vote, is a good example). So, ultimately I have trouble putting too much faith in what I feel I see in the vote analysis. BB2112 has had a number of exchanges where I felt he wasn't nearly his standard self - and that's whats mostly behind my vote.

Oh, I know it's wolf 101 to vote on a barreling wolf train to provide some cover, but performing the analysis anyway does potentially clear up some issues and give us somewhere to focus. Would all the wolves throw themselves on the Bakhtosh train?

pr0ner wrote:

Unagi wrote:My opinion on votes is that they are not very good indicators of 'wolfyness'. It's Wolf 101 to use your vote in a way to throw off attention - and then more veteran wolves use that to make themselves 'obviously not a wolf' (like maybe being the Nth vote, is a good example). So, ultimately I have trouble putting too much faith in what I feel I see in the vote analysis. BB2112 has had a number of exchanges where I felt he wasn't nearly his standard self - and that's whats mostly behind my vote.

Oh, I know it's wolf 101 to vote on a barreling wolf train to provide some cover, but performing the analysis anyway does potentially clear up some issues and give us somewhere to focus. Would all the wolves throw themselves on the Bakhtosh train?

I would assume that there's at least one on the train and one not. Not sure that really tells us all that much.

However, I do agree with your analysis that it is unlikely that the wolves would want BakhtoshWolf and RMCWolf as the sole votes on a villager, which points towards RMC being a villager.

El Guapo wrote:

pr0ner wrote:

Unagi wrote:My opinion on votes is that they are not very good indicators of 'wolfyness'. It's Wolf 101 to use your vote in a way to throw off attention - and then more veteran wolves use that to make themselves 'obviously not a wolf' (like maybe being the Nth vote, is a good example). So, ultimately I have trouble putting too much faith in what I feel I see in the vote analysis. BB2112 has had a number of exchanges where I felt he wasn't nearly his standard self - and that's whats mostly behind my vote.

Oh, I know it's wolf 101 to vote on a barreling wolf train to provide some cover, but performing the analysis anyway does potentially clear up some issues and give us somewhere to focus. Would all the wolves throw themselves on the Bakhtosh train?

I would assume that there's at least one on the train and one not. Not sure that really tells us all that much.

However, I do agree with your analysis that it is unlikely that the wolves would want BakhtoshWolf and RMCWolf as the sole votes on a villager, which points towards RMC being a villager.

that was me...it's like I play these games but I don't exist...geez!

For me it was bb2112's seeming attempt to prevent the bakhtosh train from ever even starting. Sorry. I guess I do put weight in voting patterns. Too much? I don't know. I'm sure I'm wrong way too often but I need to vote on something and I like to see other's reactions.

Lassr wrote:

El Guapo wrote:

pr0ner wrote:

Unagi wrote:My opinion on votes is that they are not very good indicators of 'wolfyness'. It's Wolf 101 to use your vote in a way to throw off attention - and then more veteran wolves use that to make themselves 'obviously not a wolf' (like maybe being the Nth vote, is a good example). So, ultimately I have trouble putting too much faith in what I feel I see in the vote analysis. BB2112 has had a number of exchanges where I felt he wasn't nearly his standard self - and that's whats mostly behind my vote.

Oh, I know it's wolf 101 to vote on a barreling wolf train to provide some cover, but performing the analysis anyway does potentially clear up some issues and give us somewhere to focus. Would all the wolves throw themselves on the Bakhtosh train?

I would assume that there's at least one on the train and one not. Not sure that really tells us all that much.

However, I do agree with your analysis that it is unlikely that the wolves would want BakhtoshWolf and RMCWolf as the sole votes on a villager, which points towards RMC being a villager.

that was me...it's like I play these games but I don't exist...geez!

I apologize, pr0ner.

LordMortis wrote:For me it was bb2112's seeming attempt to prevent the bakhtosh train from ever even starting. Sorry. I guess I do put weight in voting patterns. Too much? I don't know. I'm sure I'm wrong way too often but I need to vote on something and I like to see other's reactions.

I looked this up since I couldn't recall what bb was doing in that. He was really beating the bushes at the end of day 1 (~ pp. 16 - 19) for a purge lynch. That's not good since purge is (evidently) good while the Bakhtosh wolf lynch was getting going.

The other interesting thing with bb2112 is his long exchange with Qantaga over the wisdom of reveals here. I'm inclined to agree with Qantaga in the argument, but the question is whether that's something a wolf would spend a lot of time arguing over.

Overall I do think  bb2112 
 
is worth testing. Also still support voting for Scoop. I'll give some thought to Vorret as well, and the oft-mysterious Grund.

Oh, and  withdraw Scoop 
 

Day 2 Vote Count
Votes required for lynch - 10

Against bb2112 (8) - LordMortis, Unagi, Lassr, Chaosraven, pr0ner, Qantaga, redrun, El Guapo
Against Scoop (4) - RMC, bb2112, Vorret, tru1cy
Against El Guapo (3) - Lagom LIte, theohall, Grundbegriff
Against Grundbegriff (1) - Scoop20906

No votes (3) - Remus West, purge, triggercut

There are 16 villagers + 3 wolves alive. The deadline for the lynch vote is June 20th at 9am Eastern time.




Votes for Seance Requires as least 10 Votes of which the Medium must be 1

Seance Newcastle (1) - Vorret

pr0ner wrote:

Unagi wrote:My opinion on votes is that they are not very good indicators of 'wolfyness'. It's Wolf 101 to use your vote in a way to throw off attention - and then more veteran wolves use that to make themselves 'obviously not a wolf' (like maybe being the Nth vote, is a good example). So, ultimately I have trouble putting too much faith in what I feel I see in the vote analysis. BB2112 has had a number of exchanges where I felt he wasn't nearly his standard self - and that's whats mostly behind my vote.

Oh, I know it's wolf 101 to vote on a barreling wolf train to provide some cover, but performing the analysis anyway does potentially clear up some issues and give us somewhere to focus. Would all the wolves throw themselves on the Bakhtosh train?

I'm not knocking your analysis, so much as saying that for me, it ends up being a bit of a wash.
There are certainly times where all the wolves would be on the "wolf train". I'd not think it likely as a Day1 train event, unless there was some inevitablity with it, but I wouldn't discount it at all. Nor would I assume it happened. Personally, I bet 1 or 2 was on it, and 1 or 2 wasn't. But that's really just me saying "it's a wash". Heck, I wouldn't discount that NO wolves were on it... I mean - only a WOLF would know to avoid his brother, so a WOLF wouldn't want to appear to be doing that, so a REALLY good wolf WOULD do that, so that he wouldn't look like a normal wolf... That's the Loop my mind goes into.

Unagi wrote:My opinion on votes is that they are not very good indicators of 'wolfyness'. It's Wolf 101 to use your vote in a way to throw off attention - and then more veteran wolves use that to make themselves 'obviously not a wolf' (like maybe being the Nth vote, is a good example). So, ultimately I have trouble putting too much faith in what I feel I see in the vote analysis. BB2112 has had a number of exchanges where I felt he wasn't nearly his standard self - and that's whats mostly behind my vote.

and I agree with this. As I said, often times there is a lone wolf off voting somewhere else. Not always though and in this case with wolf Bahktosh being the target would all the wolves want to jump on board the train? Maybe, just no way to tell but if one did avoid the train then BB, El Guapo and Grund would be my choices. I lean more BB or Grund than El Guapo though just from the feel I get from their posts or non-posts for Grund.

Vorret wrote:

LOL!!!

OMG I love you guys!!!

El Guapo wrote:

Lassr wrote:

El Guapo wrote:

pr0ner wrote:

Unagi wrote:My opinion on votes is that they are not very good indicators of 'wolfyness'. It's Wolf 101 to use your vote in a way to throw off attention - and then more veteran wolves use that to make themselves 'obviously not a wolf' (like maybe being the Nth vote, is a good example). So, ultimately I have trouble putting too much faith in what I feel I see in the vote analysis. BB2112 has had a number of exchanges where I felt he wasn't nearly his standard self - and that's whats mostly behind my vote.

Oh, I know it's wolf 101 to vote on a barreling wolf train to provide some cover, but performing the analysis anyway does potentially clear up some issues and give us somewhere to focus. Would all the wolves throw themselves on the Bakhtosh train?

I would assume that there's at least one on the train and one not. Not sure that really tells us all that much.

However, I do agree with your analysis that it is unlikely that the wolves would want BakhtoshWolf and RMCWolf as the sole votes on a villager, which points towards RMC being a villager.

that was me...it's like I play these games but I don't exist...geez!

I apologize, pr0ner.

 withdraw El Guapo 
 


I'm fine with

 bb2112 
 


N-1. Final words?

Com on, Big Bad Wolfy. No villagers.

Now I want a SlimJim

Lets pray he is not the Berserker.
 bb2112 
 

Remus West wrote:Lets pray he is not the Berserker.
 bb2112 
 

Or the hunter, I guess.

Day 2 Final Vote Count
Votes required for lynch - 10

Against bb2112 (10) - LordMortis, Unagi, Lassr, Chaosraven, pr0ner, Qantaga, redrun, El Guapo, Lagom Lite, Remus West
Against Scoop (4) - RMC, bb2112, Vorret, tru1cy
Against El Guapo (2) - theohall, Grundbegriff
Against Grundbegriff (1) - Scoop20906

No votes (2) - purge, triggercut

There are 16 villagers + 3 wolves alive. The deadline for the lynch vote is June 20th at 9am Eastern time.




Votes for Seance Requires as least 10 Votes of which the Medium must be 1

Seance Newcastle (1) - Vorret[/quote]

LordMortis wrote:

Remus West wrote:Lets pray he is not the Berserker.
 bb2112 
 

Or the hunter, I guess.

Indeed. At the risk of incurring Lassr's wrath we probably should've waited for him to speak in case he's the hunter.

But what are the odds of that, right?

The town of Linoge was not large, but it did have a number of recognizable professions. As the day went along, people began to lay claim to those professions and use them as reasons to go after others. The leaches of their society - those only known as Villagers - soon began to draw the most attention. The pool narrowed from 3 to 1 in the mere blink of an eye and bb2112 found his head in a noose before he knew what was happening.

As Remus kicked the chair from under his feet, LordMortis yelled "NO WHAMMIES!" as Unagi looked on chewing some jerky. And just that quickly, it was over. Remembering the previous day's results, the village stood vigil until the sun was well below the horizon, but all they were rewarded with was a slowly decaying bb2112.

bb2112 was a Villager!

Boilerplate -
Mentalist - will you communicate with someone?
Werewolf Hunter - will you protect someone?
Sorcerer - what question do you seek an answer to?
Seer - on whom will you concentrate the Third Eye?
Cabalists - whom will you examine? The darkness has unlocked the Hidden Crypt once more.
Werewolves - who looks tasty?

Edit: Deadline for orders is Monday, June 17th at 1pm Eastern. Daybreak will not occur before Saturday, June 15th at 7am Eastern.
Note - deadline extended so it does not fall on a weekend. Please don't make us wait for the sake of waiting however.

And there goes my best guess.

Wow. That seemed to go quickly, I am not sure why we did not wait for him to talk however.

by the by. If the hunter is alive, I'd probably protect Trig over Remus but that's just me while we wait for the newcastle reveal.

What the hell????
Remus, why on earth didn't you wait for him to talk??