Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[YellowKing]

Here’s an idea. Maybe lets not talk about learning to live with the virus at a time when thousands are still dying every day and the virus is still circulating uncontrolled everywhere?

Unfortunately that's the only talk we can have at this point. Because we've proven that nobody's - neither the government, businesses, or individuals - are going to take any real action to stop it.

[stessier]

I really wish I knew how things were going here in South Carolina but...

The COVID-19 data reports since Thursday, Jan. 20 are delayed.

DHEC is currently experiencing a data processing issue worsened by the record numbers of tests and the format in which we are receiving results. The data reports since Thursday, Jan. 20 are delayed, and DHEC will provide an update as soon as these issues are fixed and the accuracy of the data is confirmed. This processing issue is a one-time occurrence and we do not anticipate it being a recurring problem once it is resolved.

We appreciate the public’s continued patience and will provide an update when data is available.

Kudos for wanting to get it right, but it's been 5 days. It's almost like the Powers That Be aren't giving them the resources they need to accurately report data during this time.

[Smoove_B]

Maybe lets not talk about learning to live with the virus

"Learning to live with the virus" has been blasted in OpEds from various chaos goblins since the Summer of 2020. The people writing and saying these things are typically far outside the demographic group that is feeling the brunt of the pandemic in any capacity and have generally not paid any cost (figurative and literal) as a result of the pandemic.

It really is amazing to me how quickly the American population (at large) was suddenly ok with a new disease that causes ~2K deaths a day. Just "learn to live with that" is the answer.

[Octavious]

As long as it doesn't impact your direct family it's pretty easy to ignore. Especially in our society where we don't give two shits about the person living next door, let alone the same town, state etc.. America! Fuck Ya!

[LordMortis]

"Learning to live with the virus" has been blasted in OpEds from various chaos goblins since the Summer of 2020. The people writing and saying these things are typically far outside the demographic group that is feeling the brunt of the pandemic in any capacity and have generally not paid any cost (figurative and literal) as a result of the pandemic.

Any one who isn't a millionaire several times over is feeling the burden of inflation caused by the massive amounts of money injected into the system along with the supply slow down. The thing is, we knew that was going to be a cost and a piper needs to be paid. Too many of us never accepted the terms and too many of us accepted the terms and then decided why should the contract apply to them after the money was infused and we tried to slow the spread of COVID.

Some of the authors might be trust babies with no sense of cost of things only of their own entitlement but I can't make that judgement in a general sense (like the lady who just wants to go back to bars and she done enough already).

[LawBeefaroni]

[RunningMn9]

Any one who isn't a millionaire several times over is feeling the burden of inflation caused by the massive amounts of money injected into the system along with the supply slow down.

Nice try. They are feeling the burden of inflation caused by Joe Biden’s communism.

[malchior]

"Learning to live with the virus" has been blasted in OpEds from various chaos goblins since the Summer of 2020. The people writing and saying these things are typically far outside the demographic group that is feeling the brunt of the pandemic in any capacity and have generally not paid any cost (figurative and literal) as a result of the pandemic.

Any one who isn't a millionaire several times over is feeling the burden of inflation caused by the massive amounts of money injected into the system along with the supply slow down.

This isn't true everywhere though. Food prices didn't surge everywhere. Even here in super expensive NJ. At least we aren't seeing it like I'm hearing elsewhere in my neck of the woods. This isn't the type of inflation that is even across the nation. We first saw it in certain goods, then it spread wider because of supply chain and pandemic related shipping issues (shortages of truck drivers has been a constant theme), and persistent hard goods shortages. Spending patterns also shifted. People didn't travel or vacation as much and many folks concentrated on hard goods such as vehicles, refrigerators, etc. which again to point it out already had shortages. That is driving prices. And many products have constrained basic components. For instance, we have a 5 day supply of chips when normal levels are more than a month. We have a nationwide shortage of some precursor chemicals such as chlorine and plastics. That has constrained supply and driven prices.

The thing is, we knew that was going to be a cost and a piper needs to be paid. Too many of us never accepted the terms and too many of us accepted the terms and then decided why should the contract apply to them after the money was infused and we tried to slow the spread of COVID.

I mean sorta. Lots of folks simply paid down debt - in fact the savings rate surged even before payments. And again re-opening has been uneven. I'd caution buying into these stories about airdrops of cash leading to this. The amount of money injected isn't lining up to the impact according to many economists. In fact, this narrative is being driven by the Chicago school guys who have been promising inflation has been around the corner for 20+ years. The media is happy to point a camera at anyone who might have some 'very serious' narrative about moral hazard, etc. This is probably not the case. Just because we are finally seeing some conditions matching their theories doesn't mean their diagnosis is right.

[LordMortis]

Any one who isn't a millionaire several times over is feeling the burden of inflation caused by the massive amounts of money injected into the system along with the supply slow down.

Nice try. They are feeling the burden of inflation caused by Joe Biden’s communism.

Close. It's the tax and spend Democrats. Not getting out of the way of business is Joe Biden's communism. Business objecting to Trump's "reform" was corporate communism. But that's a different tale. I'm sure many of the author's don't think of themselves as part of Trump's GOP. They probably see themselves as above the fray of the partisan divide. But they are crazy entitled just the same. They just...

https://twitter.com/brittanylynne8/stat ... 9846996992

Also, for those who don't know, she is the fiance? of Patrick Mahomes and this was her response after posting herself spraying champagne over unsuspecting KC fans in freezing weather in the seats below her from the comfort of her private suite.

[Zarathud]

It really is amazing to me how quickly the American population (at large) was suddenly ok with a new disease that causes ~2K deaths a day. Just "learn to live with that" is the answer.

We live with school shootings, so we’re already objectively terrible people.

The Trump demographic thought they were killing off big city libs in New York and California. It’s too late to change their mind now the leopard is disproportionately killing Republicans.

[Smoove_B]

We live with school shootings, so we’re already objectively terrible people.

I was going to use school shootings as an example, but yeah it should have been pretty clear we weren't going to blink at 2K deaths a day after seeing how we respond to school shootings.

In other news, the director of the CDC is now trying to clarify "mild" as the NE moves out of the surge and hospitalizations and deaths become problematic.

"Milder does not mean mild and we cannot look past the strain on our health systems and substantial number of deaths," Walensky said during a press briefing with the White House Covid response team.

Uhh....but we did. We looked right the F past it when you told everyone it was mild and masks weren't necessary.

Maybe next time we'll be proactive, he types while everyone laughs.

[Alefroth]

Todays episode of The Daily made me all kinds of angry today.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t ... 0549044026

Here’s an idea. Maybe lets not talk about learning to live with the virus at a time when thousands are still dying every day and the virus is still circulating uncontrolled everywhere?

Was just going to post the same thing. So irresonsible.

[malchior]

"Milder does not mean mild and we cannot look past the strain on our health systems and substantial number of deaths," Walensky said during a press briefing with the White House Covid response team.

Uhh....but we did. We looked right the F past it when you told everyone it was mild and masks weren't necessary.

Maybe next time we'll be proactive, he types while everyone laughs.

She is clearly better than her predecessor but I'm not sure how much better. Not a lot by my reckoning. Instead of lying outright and fumbling decisions, she is mildly gaslighting us and fumbling decisions. That's improvement, right?

[LordMortis]

Todays episode of The Daily made me all kinds of angry today.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t ... 0549044026

Here’s an idea. Maybe lets not talk about learning to live with the virus at a time when thousands are still dying every day and the virus is still circulating uncontrolled everywhere?

Was just going to post the same thing. So irresonsible.

I got as far as being surprised older people not being as worried about COVID. How are you surprised? If you are 65 or older who many of your remaining years do you want to be locked away?

[Daehawk]

In the middle of a huge Covid surge what happened to all the Covid help like EBT funds and stimulus checks? Shelves are bare, prices are high, money is gone....wheres the help now?

[gilraen]

I got as far as being surprised older people not being as worried about COVID. How are you surprised? If you are 65 or older who many of your remaining years do you want to be locked away?

That's a bit of what I just heard from my parents yesterday. They are going on a guided tour of Machu Picchu in a couple of months. My dad is vaccinated, my mom is not (don't get me started...) but has been testing for COVID twice a week because she's a federal contractor, and they require it even for people who work from home.
My dad said he's definitely worried about COVID but my mom decided that she has only so many good years left, and she wants to travel. Her younger brother - my uncle - died of cancer a few months ago, so I think that definitely affected her thinking in that regard.

[Kurth]

I thought the main thrust of that Daily episode with David Leonhardt landed pretty well: We are really, really bad at making rational decisions based on risk analysis.

But I've been following (and quoting) Leonhardt for a while now, as his approach to COVID resonates with me, so maybe that's not a surprise.

[El Guapo]

Patty Murray (D-WA) and Richard Burr (R-NC) have released draft language for a pandemic prevention bill.

The discussion draft from Sens. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Richard Burr (R-N.C.) includes proposals on topics such as improving data collection, speeding up the development of vaccines and treatments, and improving public health communication.

One of the most prominent proposals is to create a task force modeled on the 9/11 Commission to examine the U.S. response to COVID-19 as well as the controversial subject of the origins of the pandemic, which some have said could have resulted from a lab leak in China. An interim report would be required within 180 days, and a final report would be required within a year.

...

The measure would include changes such as making the CDC director a Senate-confirmed position and requiring the agency to develop a strategic plan every four years.

...

Other measures include creating an advisory committee on public health communication, authorizing grants for genomic sequencing, directing support for “manufacturing surge capacity” for vaccines and treatments, and allowing the secretary of Health and Human Services to directly appoint up to 250 people during a public health emergency.

The senators ask for feedback by Feb. 4 and say committee markup of the bill will happen “in the coming weeks.”

Smoove, what are your thoughts? Of course Congress isn't generally in the business of doing things these days, so who knows how likely it is to actually become laws, but just curious about the concepts here.

[malchior]

I thought the main thrust of that Daily episode with David Leonhardt landed pretty well: We are really, really bad at making rational decisions based on risk analysis.

Yes but that's why I agree with msteeler's response. There are two different levels to think about here from a risk point of view. There is the policy level and from that policy there should have been clearly communicated guardrails for people to calibrate their risk. That's how you get people who are inherently bad at risk on a good path. We didn't and still aren't doing anything along those lines. We are awash in conflicting messages, bad information, deliberate misinformation, etc.

And at a policy level there is no certainty to this completely irresponsible 'let's just live with it' approach. We have a widely circulating virus that is highly infectious and it kills thousands of people a day in rolling waves. Those waves of sickness are degrading our healthcare system - a material percentage of healthcare workers have quit the field. And we still face the potential risking of a calamitous wave as well.

I made this point earlier but from a policy level we have to assume the risk is still high/critical and continue to prepare for it. How many times how we been caught unaware? Yet we're pivoting again to 'normal'. It's bat shit crazy. Even with the currently available vaccines, therapeutics, etc. we don't have mitigation for those risks right now. Could we get there? I don't know. I'd assume we could but we keep failing and trying to rush back to normal like spoiled children who won't face reality. It's a hard lesson to take over and over.

[Smoove_B]

Smoove, what are your thoughts? Of course Congress isn't generally in the business of doing things these days, so who knows how likely it is to actually become laws, but just curious about the concepts here.

Mostly toothless but giving the appearance of doing something. I can save them lots of time and money right here, right now.

(1) We need better data collection - without question.
(2) This was most definitely a naturally occurring zoonotic emergence. We were not prepared for it; we are currently unprepared for the next one because
(3) Public health is still a state-level issue.

It doesn't matter what this committee finds or if they appoint a new director every 2,3, or 4 years to draft some type of plan that has no realistic way of being enacted. As long as you have states filled with people like DeSantis, there's no chance of a national plan working.

This pandemic has clearly demonstrated that 50 states functioning like individual actors during a public health crisis involving a respiratory communicable disease doesn't work.

How they fix that? No realistic idea since it's political in nature and we're getting what we elected - locally.

Creating a committee that (to me) seems like they're going to spend time an energy trying to vilify China? GTFO of here with that nonsense already.

[Zaxxon]

This pandemic has clearly demonstrated that 50 states functioning like individual actors during a public health crisis involving a respiratory communicable disease doesn't work.

See also: Counties.

[LordMortis]

That's a bit of what I just heard from my parents yesterday. They are going on a guided tour of Machu Picchu in a couple of months. My dad is vaccinated, my mom is not (don't get me started...)

I know your pain.

My dad said he's definitely worried about COVID but my mom decided that she has only so many good years left, and she wants to travel. Her younger brother - my uncle - died of cancer a few months ago, so I think that definitely affected her thinking in that regard.

My mom is the same only rather than travel it helping the poor and charity through church. One of her nephews died of COVID contracted at his weddeing and his sister developed complicated diabetes that I can't see how it won't be with her for the rest of her life... Dammit I got started!

[Smoove_B]

Just in case anyone was curious

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1486855306089017348

U.S. reporting more than 2,500 coronavirus deaths a day on average, highest since February 2021

But haven't you heard? The economy man - it's doing great!

(for reference 3895 Americans died of COVID-19 yesterday)

[malchior]

Like Walensky said, it's milder but not mild...but maybe these are very mild deaths. I'm not sure anymore.

[El Guapo]

Just in case anyone was curious

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1486855306089017348

U.S. reporting more than 2,500 coronavirus deaths a day on average, highest since February 2021

But haven't you heard? The economy man - it's doing great!

(for reference 3895 Americans died of COVID-19 yesterday)

On average per day over what time period?

[malchior]

Just in case anyone was curious

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1486855306089017348

U.S. reporting more than 2,500 coronavirus deaths a day on average, highest since February 2021

But haven't you heard? The economy man - it's doing great!

(for reference 3895 Americans died of COVID-19 yesterday)

On average per day over what time period?

Typically over the last 7 days. Reporting is usually lighter or incomplete on weekends/holidays so they smooth it over a week span.

[Smoove_B]

Yeah, it's a 7 day prior - and it keeps creeping up.

[Zaxxon]

Yeah, it's a 7 day prior - and it keeps creeping up.

Not actually playing devil's advocate here, but when it's heading up we always talk about how hospitalizations lag cases, and deaths lag hospitalizations. With cases having appeared to peak for now about 2 weeks ago, isn't deaths continuing to creep up expected, as well as deaths starting to creep down in another couple of weeks?

[LordMortis]

Yeah, it's a 7 day prior - and it keeps creeping up.

Not actually playing devil's advocate here, but when it's heading up we always talk about how hospitalizations lag cases, and deaths lag hospitalizations. With cases having appeared to peak for now about 2 weeks ago, isn't deaths continuing to creep up expected, as well as deaths starting to creep down in another couple of weeks?

That's what I would expect but the south east is about to get hit with unseasonably cold weather. I wouldn't expect that peak to stay where it is.

[LawBeefaroni]

But haven't you heard? The economy man - it's doing great!

The cracks in the facade are starting to show. And inflation is no longer "transitory," as if by magic

[Smoove_B]

Not actually playing devil's advocate here, but when it's heading up we always talk about how hospitalizations lag cases, and deaths lag hospitalizations. With cases having appeared to peak for now about 2 weeks ago, isn't deaths continuing to creep up expected, as well as deaths starting to creep down in another couple of weeks?

Oh yeah, I wasn't suggesting there was surprise in the trend, just indicating that the death average is rising - despite the cries of mildness last month. I think I saw that for January of 2022 more Americans will have died of COVID-19 than died during the entire Vietnam war. But you'd never know based on what we're doing. Apparently it's now a problem for "others" if you ask the average person.

In my part of America, we seem to have hit a plateau again - cases are now leveled off at around 6K a day - which had been our historical (2021) peak at the height of the first wave. Now it's our ~5 day average. Which again, is much better than the 35K from a few weeks ago, but 6K cases a day is is still significant. Our hospitalizations and deaths are dropping but no where near as fast as the cases increased. While I don't have direct confirmation, my understanding (unofficially) is that many COVID-19 patients are being stabilized but are messed up enough that they need to stay in the hospital longer because of lung/organ damage.

So I guess my point with all this (sorry for rambling) is that the core pattern still holds (cases, followed by hospitalizations, followed by deaths). There's been some changes in the rates and the overall progression, but what was happening in April of 2020 (and beyond) is still happening now.

[Defiant]

Oh yeah, I wasn't suggesting there was surprise in the trend, just indicating that the death average is rising - despite the cries of mildness last month. I think I saw that for January of 2022 more Americans will have died of COVID-19 than died during the entire Vietnam war.

Well, yeah, there was no COVID-19 during the entire Vietnam war, so of course more are dying of it now.

(I kid, I kid)

[Smoove_B]

With that kind of analysis, you might be able to moonlight for Tucker Carlson.

[Pyperkub]

concerning new 'stealth' variant detected:

BA.2 has been dubbed “stealth omicron” because most Omicron variant sequences include a deletion in the S gene, which can cause what scientists call an “S gene target failure” in PCR tests that has been used to identify variants as omicron. The BA.2 sub-lineage, however, lacks that S gene deletion, the WHO said, so using that S gene target failure to identify omicron might miss the BA.2 lineage.

Han said that the BA.2 sub-lineage can be identified by a full genetic sequencing, which is not commonly done on most virus samples, but was used to identify the Santa Clara County cases.

I'm reading this as saying that many PCR tests may not be able to detect it...

[Smoove_B]

It was detected in CT earlier this month, if that means anything. Seems to be displacing BA.1 in Denmark (I think), as they're set to remove all COVID-19 based restrictions. Seems like a great idea.

[El Guapo]

concerning new 'stealth' variant detected:

BA.2 has been dubbed “stealth omicron” because most Omicron variant sequences include a deletion in the S gene, which can cause what scientists call an “S gene target failure” in PCR tests that has been used to identify variants as omicron. The BA.2 sub-lineage, however, lacks that S gene deletion, the WHO said, so using that S gene target failure to identify omicron might miss the BA.2 lineage.

Han said that the BA.2 sub-lineage can be identified by a full genetic sequencing, which is not commonly done on most virus samples, but was used to identify the Santa Clara County cases.

I'm reading this as saying that many PCR tests may not be able to detect it...

I'm reading this as saying that they may be unable to identify it as an omicron variant (when doing genetic sequencing), not whether they can detect whether the person in question has Covid. Is that right?

[gilraen]

concerning new 'stealth' variant detected:

BA.2 has been dubbed “stealth omicron” because most Omicron variant sequences include a deletion in the S gene, which can cause what scientists call an “S gene target failure” in PCR tests that has been used to identify variants as omicron. The BA.2 sub-lineage, however, lacks that S gene deletion, the WHO said, so using that S gene target failure to identify omicron might miss the BA.2 lineage.

Han said that the BA.2 sub-lineage can be identified by a full genetic sequencing, which is not commonly done on most virus samples, but was used to identify the Santa Clara County cases.

I'm reading this as saying that many PCR tests may not be able to detect it...

I'm reading this as saying that they may be unable to identify it as an omicron variant (when doing genetic sequencing), not whether they can detect whether the person in question has Covid. Is that right?

Yes, it doesn't seem to be evading tests and is about as detectable as the original Omicron variant. It *does* appear to be better at evading antibodies in the infected host, though.

[malchior]

But haven't you heard? The economy man - it's doing great!

The cracks in the facade are starting to show. And inflation is no longer "transitory," as if by magic

Definitionally it probably *is* still transitory but that isn't the way lay people define transitory. Transitory means not structural. The signs are that it isn't. For instance, the employer price index just came out and showed wages didn't surge alongside inflation. The read is that it doesn't look like the 70s style wage-inflation death spiral. That is also probably why the Fed has been so slow to pump the brakes. The 'best growth since Reagan' story the media is pumping sort of glosses over that averaged over the pandemic actual growth has been around 1% per year. We've recovered but the idea this is some economic boom is pure mis-framing. In the end, the current conditions still looks like supply-demand mismatches and pandemic based transportation disruption. But let's keep on trucking...when they stop all the coughing.

[Smoove_B]

While I'm not an economist (we'd need to check in with Nate Silver), my guess is that just like public health, whatever historical economic models are being used aren't quite right. I can talk about viruses and communicable disease, but I have nothing I've learned or studied that can accurately describe what we've been seeing for 2+ years now - we are in uncharted territory, even after all this time. That goes for what we can expect and how this will all ultimately end. No one knows. Lots of people have guesses and some are better than others, but no one knows. It feels like the economic projections are the same. They're guessing at what might happen based on puzzle pieces being applied to historical models. Or interpreting historically useful data points as meaning the same thing in January of 2022 as they might have meant in January of 2012 or 2005.

There's still far too much "noise" as we're settling into this next phase of our pandemic experience in the United States. We're beyond crisis (March of 2020 - early 2021 with vaccinations), but this new phase is a weird steady-state of multiple parallel alternate realities, imho. Talk to the average American citizen and you'll get a different story than if you talk to the parent of a 7 year old (or a 3 year old) or a retail worker, teacher or ER physician (or nurse). The way the pandemic is impacting so many different groups so very differently right now and the people in charge (politicians, elected/appointed officials) are as disconnected from the experience as I am from the ER nurse in Mississippi right now.

[Isgrimnur]

The heartiest laugh in my college career came from a textbook. "Economics is a science."