Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[YellowKing]

Even our governor, who has by and large kept an even hand on the keel through the pandemic, is now actively encouraging the dropping of all mask mandates. The reasoning being that cases are falling (for now), and that Omicron appears to be milder. We're done, game over, welcome to what will now pass as normal.

[LawBeefaroni]

The reasoning being that cases are falling (for now), and that Omicron appears to be milder.

That's the justification. The real reason is probably November elections.

[Isgrimnur]

The reasoning being that cases are falling (for now), and that Omicron appears to be milder.

That's the justification. The real reason is probably November elections.

Spring primaries.

[Max Peck]

In Ontario, it would be the provincial election that is coming up this spring. Ford needs those right-wing anti-mandate votes if he's going to hold on to power.

[Pyperkub]

BA.2 looking like a nasty cross between Omicron and Delta:

The BA.2 virus -- a subvariant of the Omicron coronavirus variant -- isn't just spreading faster than its distant cousin, it may also cause more severe disease and appears capable of thwarting some of the key weapons we have against Covid-19, new research suggests.
New lab experiments from Japan show that BA.2 may have features that make it as capable of causing serious illness as older variants of Covid-19, including Delta.
And like Omicron, it appears to largely escape the immunity created by vaccines. A booster shot restores protection, making illness after infection about 74% less likely.

BA.2 is also resistant to some treatments, including sotrovimab, the monoclonal antibody that's currently being used against Omicron.

[Smoove_B]

The BA.2 story will indeed be interesting to watch unfold.

In related news:

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1495703295746363394

Who is dying of COVID-19 when there is such strong vaccination coverage?

Infectious disease doctors say it is still mainly unvaccinated people, most of whom are in their 30s and 40s with no underlying health issues, who are dying.

[Defiant]

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1495801035297857541

[Smoove_B]

More info about BA.2 in the United States:

As the omicron surge continues to decline in the U.S., infectious disease experts are keeping a close eye on an even more contagious version of the variant that could once again foil the nation's hopes of getting back to normal.

The virus, known as BA.2, is a strain of the highly contagious omicron variant that appears to spread even more easily — about 30% more easily.

Because BA.2 quickly overtook the original omicron in South Africa and other countries and has even caused a second omicron surge in Denmark, researchers have been bracing for the same thing to happen in the U.S.

...

BA.2 has now been found from coast to coast and accounts for an estimated 3.9% all new infections nationally, according to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It appears to be doubling fast.

"If it doubles again to 8%, that means we're into the exponential growth phase and we may be staring at another wave of COVID-19 coming in the U.S.," says Samuel Scarpino, the manager director of pathogen surveillance at the Rockefeller Foundation.

Going back to my observations from the other side of the fence:

Some experts think it's unlikely BA.2 will trigger a massive new surge because so many people have immunity from prior infections and vaccination at this point.

"The most likely thing that's going to happen is that it might extend our tail, meaning it might slow down the decrease in cases. But it's probably not going to lead to a new wave of cases," says Grubaugh.

Let's keep in mind:

Omicron is still infecting more than 100,000 people and killing about 2,000 people every day in the U.S. So even though BA.2 doesn't appear to make people sicker than the original omicron, just slowing down the decline in new cases would translate to more serious illness and death.

This is normal now.

[LordMortis]

BA.2

[Trent]Mr T wins all polls he is in[/Trent]

[Max Peck]

Going back to my observations from the other side of the fence:

Some experts think it's unlikely BA.2 will trigger a massive new surge because so many people have immunity from prior infections and vaccination at this point.

"The most likely thing that's going to happen is that it might extend our tail, meaning it might slow down the decrease in cases. But it's probably not going to lead to a new wave of cases," says Grubaugh.

The problem I have with that line of thinking is that it makes the unstated assumption that this happens in an otherwise static context. But that's not what is happening. As we dismantle the policies in place to mitigate the pandemic, there is a whole segment of the population who have been doing what they've been told to do who will stop taking precautions because that is now what they're being told to do. The virus is going to get a new crop of low-hanging fruit.

But hey, that's just my theory. Let's get on with the experiment and see if it holds up.

[Smoove_B]

Exactly. The variables are constantly changing. Not only from removing protections (like masking) or blocking protections (like vaccination requirements) but the cohorts of:

(1) people that are aren't vaccinated (because they were just born - today)
(2) all kids under 5 that are currently unvaccinated
(3) Vaccine refusers that have multiple exposures (and cases of COVID-19)

For whatever reason, we refuse to consider looking at this like a fuel issue - who is currently able to host and replicate the virus - and disregard what that means for the rest of us.

I genuinely don't know how you run the calculations in this scenario; it's insanely complicated - because we've made it so.

[Zaxxon]

For whatever reason

[Smoove_B]

Yeah, that's probably fair. Related, if the math is correct, this means we'll cross over 1 million known deaths at some point in March. Actually number is still being debated, but it wouldn't surprise me if it was north of 1.5 million at this point.

https://twitter.com/CarlosdelRio7/statu ... 4303463429

COVID-19 deaths continue to be high and @CDCgov forecasting suggests they will continue to be > 10K per week for the next 4 weeks.

[LordMortis]

> 10K per week for the next 4 weeks.

I'd laugh at that projection but it's not funny. I still maintain that in the 5-7 weeks time we'll be at our next "spike" which suggests 7-9 weeks until hospitalizations rise and 9-11 until death totals rise. Here's to hoping I'm wrong on the third time through guess on how the US collectively react to what amounts to the Ides of March. I was unpleasantly correct on the first two guesses. I don't wanna be correct again.

[Smoove_B]

Going to start hearing more and more about stuff like this, I think:

Five months after being infected with the coronavirus, Nicole Murphy’s pulse rate is going berserk. Normally in the 70s, which is ideal, it has been jumping to 160, 170 and sometimes 210 beats per minute even when she is at rest — putting her at risk of a heart attack, heart failure or stroke.

No one seems to be able to pinpoint why. She’s only 44, never had heart issues, and when a cardiologist near her hometown of Wellsville, Ohio, ran all of the standard tests, “he literally threw up his hands when he saw the results,” she recalled. Her blood pressure was perfect, there were no signs of clogged arteries, and her heart was expanding and contracting well.

For those that continue to say it's just like the flu:

The idea that infections increase cardiovascular risk is not new. It has been documented in cases of influenza and other viruses as well. But in coronavirus, that impact seems “enhanced,” said Antonio Abbate, a professor of cardiology at the VCU Pauley Heart Center. And the early and obvious cases, he said, should serve “as a kind of warning” for the type of longer-term cases we may see into the future.

Indeed, as the months since their infections have turned into years, people who initially had mild or even some asymptomatic coronavirus cases are pouring into cardiology practices across the country.

In summary:

The overall message from providers is that “covid by itself is a risk factor for heart disease” like obesity, diabetes, or high blood pressure, according to Saurabh Rajpal, a cardiologist at Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center.

“This is a virus that really knocks people down,” agreed Nicole Bhave, a cardiologist with Michigan Medicine and member of the American College of Cardiology’s science committee. “Even young, healthy people don’t often feel very normal for weeks to months, and it’s a real challenge to distinguish what’s just your body slowly healing versus a new pathological problem.”

[LawBeefaroni]

Going to start hearing more and more about stuff like this, I think:

Five months after being infected with the coronavirus, Nicole Murphy’s pulse rate is going berserk. Normally in the 70s, which is ideal, it has been jumping to 160, 170 and sometimes 210 beats per minute even when she is at rest — putting her at risk of a heart attack, heart failure or stroke.

No one seems to be able to pinpoint why. She’s only 44, never had heart issues, and when a cardiologist near her hometown of Wellsville, Ohio, ran all of the standard tests, “he literally threw up his hands when he saw the results,” she recalled. Her blood pressure was perfect, there were no signs of clogged arteries, and her heart was expanding and contracting well.

For those that continue to say it's just like the flu:

The idea that infections increase cardiovascular risk is not new. It has been documented in cases of influenza and other viruses as well. But in coronavirus, that impact seems “enhanced,” said Antonio Abbate, a professor of cardiology at the VCU Pauley Heart Center. And the early and obvious cases, he said, should serve “as a kind of warning” for the type of longer-term cases we may see into the future.

Indeed, as the months since their infections have turned into years, people who initially had mild or even some asymptomatic coronavirus cases are pouring into cardiology practices across the country.

In summary:

The overall message from providers is that “covid by itself is a risk factor for heart disease” like obesity, diabetes, or high blood pressure, according to Saurabh Rajpal, a cardiologist at Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center.

“This is a virus that really knocks people down,” agreed Nicole Bhave, a cardiologist with Michigan Medicine and member of the American College of Cardiology’s science committee. “Even young, healthy people don’t often feel very normal for weeks to months, and it’s a real challenge to distinguish what’s just your body slowly healing versus a new pathological problem.”

As much as my gut agrees, I feel like the need remind about correlation and causation. A lot of people got COVID. There is a huge dataset and we need to rely on proper analysis of the data.


Otherwise, vaccines cause autism.

[Freyland]

Going to start hearing more and more about stuff like this, I think:

Five months after being infected with the coronavirus, Nicole Murphy’s pulse rate is going berserk. Normally in the 70s, which is ideal, it has been jumping to 160, 170 and sometimes 210 beats per minute even when she is at rest — putting her at risk of a heart attack, heart failure or stroke.

No one seems to be able to pinpoint why. She’s only 44, never had heart issues, and when a cardiologist near her hometown of Wellsville, Ohio, ran all of the standard tests, “he literally threw up his hands when he saw the results,” she recalled. Her blood pressure was perfect, there were no signs of clogged arteries, and her heart was expanding and contracting well.

For those that continue to say it's just like the flu:

The idea that infections increase cardiovascular risk is not new. It has been documented in cases of influenza and other viruses as well. But in coronavirus, that impact seems “enhanced,” said Antonio Abbate, a professor of cardiology at the VCU Pauley Heart Center. And the early and obvious cases, he said, should serve “as a kind of warning” for the type of longer-term cases we may see into the future.

Indeed, as the months since their infections have turned into years, people who initially had mild or even some asymptomatic coronavirus cases are pouring into cardiology practices across the country.

In summary:

The overall message from providers is that “covid by itself is a risk factor for heart disease” like obesity, diabetes, or high blood pressure, according to Saurabh Rajpal, a cardiologist at Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center.

“This is a virus that really knocks people down,” agreed Nicole Bhave, a cardiologist with Michigan Medicine and member of the American College of Cardiology’s science committee. “Even young, healthy people don’t often feel very normal for weeks to months, and it’s a real challenge to distinguish what’s just your body slowly healing versus a new pathological problem.”

Probably secondary POTS.

[Smoove_B]

Probably secondary POTS.

I have a family friend that is dealing with this now - just randomly passing out about a week after her COVID symptoms cleared up (mild illness, she's unvaccinated and in her late 60s or early 70s). I think it's happened three or four times now, but she didn't die from COVID so it's no big deal. Still refusing to vaccinate. Won't surprise me to learn she dies from a complication that happens after falling. So much freedom. Oh, and her doctor told her he has no idea how long it'll last or if it'll ever just go away, which is nice to hear.

[malchior]

As much as my gut agrees, I feel like the need remind about correlation and causation. A lot of people got COVID. There is a huge dataset and we need to rely on proper analysis of the data.


Otherwise, vaccines cause autism.

Sure but that was one reason why the VA study was a shot across the bow. They saw baseline risks across several categories go up in COVID positive versus not positive. We will be learning much for years but the early indicators are not looking good.

[LawBeefaroni]

Sure but that was one reason why the VA study was a shot across the bow. They saw baseline risks across several categories go up in COVID positive versus not positive.

Early COVID positives were also correlated with pre-ex and comorbidities. Remember, this is all pre-delta.

[Grifman]

Good news:

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1496 ... 79529?s=21

[TheMix]

"it's makers said"...

I think I'll wait for some impartial analysis.

[Zaxxon]

Rationale for the CDC's updated guidance.

[Defiant]

It looks like the new metrics are outlined on slide 12.

Pretty much in order to have low community levels, you have to have less than 200 new cases per 100k in the last week, less than 10 new hospital admissions per 100K in the last week, and less then 10% of staffed hospital beds occupied by covid patients. So by my reckoning, it's focusing much more on how well hospitals are able to handle the current spike than on the chances of a person getting covid.

[Zaxxon]

It looks like the new metrics are outlined on slide 12.

Pretty much in order to have low community levels, you have to have less than 200 new cases per 100k in the last week, less than 10 new hospital admissions per 100K in the last week, and less then 10% of staffed hospital beds occupied by covid patients. So by my reckoning, it's focusing much more on how well hospitals are able to handle the current spike than on the chances of a person getting covid.

Yes, the gist of it is very 'get vaccinated and boosted, then you're good so long as local hospitals are good and transmission isn't terrible.'

[stessier]

Mission Accomplished.

Suspending Test-to-Stay & Quarantines After Exposure

Starting Tuesday, March 1, all Greenville County Schools locations are suspending Test-to-Stay and quarantine practices in accordance with DHEC guidance. The District has reviewed data from the last two weeks as required by DHEC and determined that no GCS schools or locations had 10% or more of their students and staff absent due to COVID-19, and less than 0.3% of students and staff were positive for COVID-19 District-wide. Therefore, all GCS schools and locations are suspending Test-to-Stay and quarantine practices related to close contact exposures until further notice. This means that all schools and locations can resume normal operations and suspend contact tracing, social distancing, and mask requirements for students and staff after an exposure.

The District will continue tracking positive cases at all schools and locations. If a school or location reaches 10% of its students and staff absent due to COVID-19 over two consecutive one-week periods, the District will notify the administration, and they will reinstate contact tracing, Test-to-Stay and quarantine practices at their location as required by DHEC.

[Smoove_B]

Not sure if this goes here

https://twitter.com/DGBassani/status/14 ... 9196815364

Dear all,

Whatever is driving mortality in Denmark should be raising eyebrows.

Spoiler:

It does

[hitbyambulance]

Denmark's Statens Serum Institut is posting their own refutation page: https://en.ssi.dk/covid-19/typical-misi ... id-numbers

[Smoove_B]

It's weird how they updated that page today but didn't address excess mortality. I'm sure they're working on it.

[Max Peck]

43% of Americans—140 million—have had COVID, CDC estimates

An estimated 140 million people in the US—around 43 percent—have had COVID-19, according to the latest analysis by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention using data from the end of January.

The estimate of people infected with COVID-19 is nearly double the CDC's cumulative tally of cases reported at the end of January, which totaled around 74 million. These numbers are expected to differ because many COVID-19 cases are not detected or reported—i.e., people may not get tested at all or take a home-test that is not reported. That means officials case counts are expected to be a significant undercount of actual infections. However, case reports can also include infections in people who have tested positive multiple times, effectively counting some people more than once.

The CDC has been estimating actual infections over time, which provides more insight into the recent tsunami of cases from the ultratransmissible omicron variant. Based on data from the end of November, the CDC estimates that about 37 million people became infected with the pandemic coronavirus in December and January. The number of cases reported to the CDC during that time frame was around 26 million.

The infection estimates stem from a nationwide seroprevalence surveillance program, which tested nearly 72,000 blood samples from late December to late January. The program uses blood samples sent to commercial labs for non-COVID-19 related testing, such as routine medical screens. The samples were surveyed for antibodies specifically from a SARS-CoV-2 infection—not vaccination.

[Blackhawk]

I'd be interested to see the net effect on human life expectancy over the next 60 years.

[Max Peck]

Researchers may have ID’ed first deer-to-human SARS-CoV-2 transmission

One of the more disturbing aspects of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is its ability to readily hop between a variety of species, ranging from domesticated animals like cats and mink to wild deer. This creates a potential risk. While spreading in other animals, the virus can pick up mutations that make it look unfamiliar to the human immune system or evolve to cause a different collection of symptoms.

These risks, however, depend on the virus being able to move back to humans after evolving in a different host. And, so far, the only cases where that's known to have happened all involve people who have worked on mink farms. But a recent manuscript that is currently awaiting peer review indicates that Canadian health authorities have identified an instance in which a SARS-CoV-2 variant circulating in deer ended up back in a human patient.

The researchers also tested the spike protein encoded by the deer variant and found that the spike was effectively neutralized by antibodies made by vaccinated individuals. So, all indications are that this variant doesn't pose a distinct risk to human populations.

That said, the research indicates that this virus had circulated among animals for roughly a year prior to jumping back into humans. Which means that, even if we were to ever limit the virus's circulation in humans, we'd still potentially be at risk of infection. As the researchers put it, "Secondary wildlife reservoirs have the potential to fundamentally alter the ecology of SARS-CoV-2."

While that's safe to conclude from the existing data, the data is only a very incomplete picture of what's going on. While the researchers identified 21 deer carrying SARS-CoV-2, the researchers managed to obtain genomes from only five of the animals. And the authors note that, by the time deer hunting season wrapped up in Ontario, the omicron wave had hit, meaning that tracking human cases was probably limited as well.

As such, we can't be certain that this variant spread from deer to human and not the other way around or whether there really was a single instance of a human infected with this variant. The work should also serve as a caution that we still need to improve our ability to monitor the spread of variants—both in humans and in other species prone to infection.

[Defiant]

I'd be curious to know how many of the ~140 million had been vaccinated prior to infection.

[Jaymon]

RE: the Denmark graph. 3 weeks after removing all covid related restrictions, there is a spike in mortalities. I'm just numb to it now, this is what I call "expected results". I know these are real actual people, and they are dead. But I have run out of outrage, the well is dry.

[Smoove_B]

RE: the Denmark graph. 3 weeks after removing all covid related restrictions, there is a spike in mortalities. I'm just numb to it now, this is what I call "expected results". I know these are real actual people, and they are dead. But I have run out of outrage, the well is dry.

That's apparently what the U.S. federal government and CDC are counting on. The new plan seemingly endorses a "full steam ahead" mentality until ~1000 deaths a day are hit. No one really knows the actual number, but really smart math people have inferred it must be close to ~1000 deaths per day based on the language the CDC uses in the guidance documents. In short, we've collectively been told that the only measure worth considering is whether or not your local hospital has capacity. Once their capacity is overrun then we'll recommend changes. Again, using a lagging indicator to drive public health prevention.

It feels like the general public doesn't realize this or they're too numb to the idea of just accepting ~10x annual flu deaths from now on as being acceptable to care.

Of note - for first two months of 2022, over 120,000 Americans died of COVID-19. You'd never know it just looking around.

[stimpy]

When the "leaders" of our country all sit in a room together, unmasked, talking, shaking hands, the common consensus is going to be it's over.
How they can expect anyone to take them seriously that it's not after a display like that?

[malchior]

It feels like the general public doesn't realize this or they're too numb to the idea of just accepting ~10x annual flu deaths from now on as being acceptable to care.

Of note - for first two months of 2022, over 120,000 Americans died of COVID-19. You'd never know it just looking around.

Yeah I can't help but say they've effectively thrown up their hands and said public health failed. You're on your own. The failed public health leadership is acknowledging that this is now an individual's problem and by individuals we mean the people most at risk and least able to protect themselves.

[El Guapo]

So I'm told that the new federal plan is 'test and treat', which I gather centers around making new-ish COVID-19 treatments more widely available and giving them to people who test positive.

Thoughts, Smoove?

[Smoove_B]

It's not public health. It's encouraging conditions that promote spread with the idea that better treatments will stop most people from dying. It's also the dominant model for population health in the United States, so it's on-brand. It in no way address the burden that will be placed on individuals and communities that will undoubtedly be suffering for months and years with chronic conditions that result from having the disease but then being saved from death.

To be clear, I'm not minimizing how important that is, but if your only measure for success is "not death" and you're ignoring all the costs associated with not being able to work, needing additional support services, etc... then WTF are we really doing?

[Defiant]

So I'm told that the new federal plan is 'test and treat', which I gather centers around making new-ish COVID-19 treatments more widely available and giving them to people who test positive.

Thoughts, Smoove?

I'm not Smoove, but getting anti-covid pills (the ones that show like ~90% reduction in fatalities, etc) if you get covid looks like a positive to me. However, I have a couple of concerns:

Do we know how effective the treatments are on people who are immunocompromised or who are vaccinated but have breakthrough infections that result in hospitalizations or would result in death? My fear would be that there's a large overlap between those for whom vaccines don't help enough and those for whom the pills don't help enough - but maybe it's unfounded.

And, as always, how well does it work on long covid. My concerns have been lessening with several studies showing that vaccines lower the chances of it significantly, but not enough to forget about.