Octopus Overlords

New York state reports 2,010 new coronavirus cases, an increase of 83% from last week

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 4:33 pm Everything is fine because hospitals aren't overrun.

While some people were no doubt thrilled to be given “official” permission, at long last, to unmask indoors in public, the experts who spoke to Vox for this story provided additional context for the new CDC metrics, and said there is still reason for caution. First, they explained, hospitalizations, which now make up two-thirds of the data points, are really about preventing system collapse versus mitigating personal Covid-19 risk or the threat that we as individuals pose to others.

The specifics of the CDC’s guidance change have received some strong pushback. “I very much disagree with the CDC threshold for transmission,” Jetelina says. “I think that there’s a really big distinction that people are missing: The CDC guidance uses 200 cases per 100,000 as a metric that people can take their masks off. But that’s people that can take their masks off because hospitals are not surging. That’s very different than people taking their masks off because the likelihood of infection is reduced. And that nuance — that small distinction — is being lost among the public. I very much think that 200 cases per 100,000 is too high to protect at an individual level.”

As emergency medicine physician Jeremy Faust puts it, the CDC “didn’t really show us their work on how [the new guidelines] protect the immunocompromised.”

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Jetelina says that individuals can look at total new cases per 100,000 residents in the past seven days to determine the level of community transmission and to decide what activities they’ll engage in.

One easy way to get these numbers is to use the CDC’s Covid-19 integrated county view. (Note: Many trackers, like the New York Times’s county Covid tracker, show a daily average of cases per 100,000; the advice in this article is based on the weekly number.) Select your state and county from the dropdown menu and the page will update. Under the big bold “COVID-19 Community Level” — which, remember, is calculated using a combination of different metrics — you’ll be able to see the weekly case rate per 100,000.

Once you have your county data, here’s how Jetelina suggests thinking about your behavior and precautions if you’re vaccinated and boosted.

100 or more weekly cases per 100,000 people: high transmission
Wear a high-quality mask indoors in public
Avoid crowded indoor spaces where people are unmasked and/or where proof of vaccination isn’t required
Avoid flying on planes, if possible (Jetelina says the airport, versus the plane itself, is the main source of concern: “You will be walking through clouds of SARS-CoV-2 during a high transmission time,” she says.)
Avoid indoor dining
Consider crowded private gatherings (like house parties) a high-risk event
Be hypervigilant around higher-risk people
If you’re symptomatic, it’s probably safe to trust positive results on an antigen test, but if you get a negative antigen test you should test again in 24 hours

50–99.99 cases per 100,000: substantial transmission
Wear a high-quality mask indoors in public
Avoid crowded indoor spaces where fewer than 75 percent of people are masked and/or where proof of vaccination isn’t required
Flying on a plane and doing indoor dining is okay, though ultimately dependent on your personal risk tolerance
Consider crowded private gatherings, like house parties, a high-risk event
Be vigilant around higher-risk people
If you’re symptomatic, trust positive results on an antigen test, but test again in 24 hours if you get a negative antigen test

10–49.99 cases per 100,000: moderate transmission
You can be unmasked in public if you’re comfortable with it and aren’t experiencing symptoms or don’t have a known exposure
Unvaccinated companions (like, say, children under 5 who are not yet eligible for shots) should wear a high-quality mask in public indoor settings if possible
Flying and indoor dining is okay, though ultimately dependent on your personal risk tolerance
Be vigilant around higher-risk people
If you’re symptomatic, test again in 24 hours if you get a positive test or a negative test

Less than 10 cases per 100,000: low transmission
Unvaccinated companions (like, say, your children) should wear a high-quality mask in public indoor settings if possible, but you can be unmasked if you’re comfortable with it and aren’t experiencing symptoms or don’t have a known exposure
No restrictions on activities
If you’re symptomatic, trust negative results on an antigen test. If you get a positive antigen test, test again in 24 hours
If you live with a young child who can’t be vaccinated, Jetelina says it might make sense to behave as though your county transmission is one level worse than it actually is — e.g., when you’re in the moderate zone, take precautions as though it’s substantial, and when you’re in the high transmission zone, be extremely vigilant.

If all of the above feels overwhelming, one metric Faust suggests — 50 cases per 100,000 — is worth committing to memory. Faust recently did statistical modeling to determine when one-way KN95 or N95 masking would be enough to protect the severely immunocompromised — that is, when people who have zero protection from the vaccines would be fairly safe if they were the only people masked in a public setting. The number he landed on is 50 per 100,000, meaning you may want to mask in public and start making small changes to your behavior (more on that below) to protect others once your community reaches that threshold.

Faust designed his model with the most vulnerable people in mind, meaning the folks with some protection (that is, the vaccines gave them some antibody response, even if it wasn’t as strong as it would be in other people) or who are higher-risk for other reasons will also benefit from others’ precautions. Faust’s article, “When will one-way masking be safe enough for everyone?,” is really worth a read, especially if you’re curious about his methodology and the limitations of this model, but the tl;dr is this: Once your community reaches a weekly average of 50 cases or more per 100,000 people, it’s a good idea to start masking again in public if you want to protect yourself and others.

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Mar 30, 2022 10:34 am It is a good piece yes, and likely a more reasonable way to think of things. However, it still puts the action on the individual and relies too much on the belief that other people will follow suit when presented with the same information.

It can be frustratingly difficult to get straight answers. Much of the pandemic behavioral advice that does exist is still centered on assessing one’s personal risk, and the idea that once you’re vaccinated and boosted, you have nothing to worry about. “The communication around this has been abysmal,” Katelyn Jetelina, an assistant professor of epidemiology at the University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston and the author of the Your Local Epidemiologist newsletter, tells Vox. “There’s no top-down guidance at all.”

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While we absolutely need federal and state governments to do more to keep us safe (please, we’re literally begging you to upgrade schools’ ventilation systems, buy extra doses of antiviral pills and fund coronavirus aid, make it easier for people to access Paxlovid and Evusheld, and help vaccinate the world), we also can’t wait around for those structural changes to come through. We want and need to make smart personal choices, and also acknowledge that personal choices play a huge role in public health.

Smoove_B wrote: That said, I'm still firmly in the camp of "you don't want COVID" - even if you're vaccinated. I am with the crowd that believes we're part of the largest mass-disabling event in human history - that the chronic health impacts of COVID-19 are going to ripple out for decades, and collectively we're all diminished because of our inability to do even the most minor things (like wearing masks) to dramatically reduce spread.

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Mar 30, 2022 10:34 am I am with the crowd that believes we're part of the largest mass-disabling event in human history - that the chronic health impacts of COVID-19 are going to ripple out for decades, and collectively we're all diminished because of our inability to do even the most minor things (like wearing masks) to dramatically reduce spread.

hitbyambulance wrote: Wed Mar 30, 2022 2:20 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Mar 30, 2022 10:34 am I am with the crowd that believes we're part of the largest mass-disabling event in human history - that the chronic health impacts of COVID-19 are going to ripple out for decades, and collectively we're all diminished because of our inability to do even the most minor things (like wearing masks) to dramatically reduce spread.

i have mentioned this before. if nothing else, i believe we're in for a perma-shrinking of the labor pool over the next number of years due to people disabled by long Covid and unable to work anymore.

malchior wrote: Wed Mar 30, 2022 2:44 pmHow long until it is widely believed that long COVID is a fake illness?

malchior wrote: Wed Mar 30, 2022 2:44 pm One thing I fear for this is that we don't exactly treat "non-productive" people well. I have a friend whose sister has been living with chronic fatigue for a very long time. I knew her before whatever happened and I've seen what's happened over the last 20+ years and it's heartbreaking. She has long dealt with people who think her condition is fake. Or that she's lazy. Prior to whatever caused it (probably Lyme's) she was non-stop. The change we saw in her was so dramatic that we assumed it was drugs at the time.

Zaxxon wrote: Wed Mar 30, 2022 2:47 pm

malchior wrote: Wed Mar 30, 2022 2:44 pmHow long until it is widely believed that long COVID is a fake illness?

It's 'today' long if you define 'widely' the right way (within the right circles).

One third of counties are at substantial or high transmission according to the prior CDC covid metric

malchior wrote: Wed Mar 30, 2022 2:44 pm In any case, this will be a whole lot of that with a shit ton of COVID denial. How long until it is widely believed that long COVID is a fake illness? It feels like it is a matter of time.

New study shows white Americans who learn about Covid's racial disparities have:

1) reduced fear about Covid
2) reduced empathy for those vulnerable to Covid
3) reduced support for Covid protections

White supremacy directly increases Covid's harms.

Daehawk wrote: Fri Apr 01, 2022 1:21 pm I went maskless to Walmart today. Its been 2 years since being in a store maskless except for the couple times I forgot it. I just wanted to do it in between breakouts of new mutations...just once. Im so tired of masks. Ill probably catch COVID and die now.

UsulofDoom wrote: Fri Apr 01, 2022 1:47 pm I must be supper immune now.

Unagi wrote: Fri Apr 01, 2022 2:16 pm

UsulofDoom wrote: Fri Apr 01, 2022 1:47 pm I must be supper immune now.

You will need to rely on dinner from now on.

Spoiler:

sorry, just made me giggle, not trying to be an asshole.

During the pandemic, disorderly, rude, and unhinged conduct seems to have caught on as much as bread baking and Bridgerton. Bad behavior of all kinds —everything from rudeness and carelessness to physical violence—has increased, as the journalist Matt Yglesias pointed out in a Substack essay earlier this year. Americans are driving more recklessly, crashing their cars and killing pedestrians at higher rates. Early 2021 saw the highest number of “unruly passenger” incidents ever, according to the FAA. In February, a plane bound for Washington, D.C., had to make an emergency landing in Kansas City, Missouri, after a man tried to break into the cockpit.

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One likely explanation for the spike in bad behavior is the rage, frustration, and stress coursing through society right now. When Christine Porath, a business professor at Georgetown University, collected data on why people behave in rude or uncivil ways, “the No. 1 reason by far was feeling stressed or overwhelmed,” she told me.

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“When someone has that angry feeling, it’s because of a combination of some sort of provocation, their mood at the time of that provocation, and then how they interpret that provocation,” said Ryan Martin, a psychology professor at the University of Wisconsin at Green Bay who studies anger. Not only are people encountering more “provocations”—staffing shortages, mask mandates—but also their mood is worse when provoked. “Americans don’t really like each other very much right now,” he added.

Unagi wrote: Fri Apr 01, 2022 8:43 pm I think you mean an asshole.

lighten up.

UsulofDoom wrote: Fri Apr 01, 2022 9:31 pm

Unagi wrote: Fri Apr 01, 2022 8:43 pm I think you mean an asshole.

lighten up.

Thats what makes you AN asshole!

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Apr 01, 2022 9:05 pm Why People Are Acting So Weird?

Unagi wrote: Fri Apr 01, 2022 9:35 pm

UsulofDoom wrote: Fri Apr 01, 2022 9:31 pm

Unagi wrote: Fri Apr 01, 2022 8:43 pm I think you mean an asshole.

lighten up.

Thats what makes you AN asshole!

That's not remotely in line with how we should treat each other here.

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Apr 01, 2022 9:05 pm Why People Are Acting So Weird?

Something interesting is happening with #COVID19 in MA, where case incidence appears much higher right now in wealthier suburbs. My guess is one of two things is happening, neither of which bodes well. First, the data. We are seeing average daily rates > 20 per 100K in towns like Manchester, Sherborn, Wayland, Concord, and Wellesley. In contrast, it’s <= 5 in Chelsea, Lawrence, and Brockton. This isn’t a formal analysis and there are counterexamples, but you get the idea. Hypotheses 1: This is the #UrgencyOfNormal crowd. Wealthy suburbs with high vaccination and booster rates are dropping pandemic precautions at a faster rate. This is certainly happening anecdotally. Now in many respects this is logical from an individual perspective. Vaccines and boosters work well, and wealthier populations generally fare better with, well, everything. Except what happens In Wellesley doesn’t stay in Wellesley. Infectious diseases spread.

And if the people in places with high case incidence are less likely to be hospitalized because of vaccines and wealth, that means hospitalizations won’t move up as quickly. That’s a good thing, except if you use hospitalizations as your metric for statewide action.

Smoove_B wrote: Sat Apr 02, 2022 8:06 pm Interesting things unfolding in MA: