Octopus Overlords

Rising coronavirus cases aren’t going to stop much of the country from continuing to move on from the pandemic, leaving many Americans to fend for themselves on the road to a new normal.

Even as cases nationwide have jumped 47 percent over the last two weeks, on Monday a federal judge lifted the mask requirement for air travel and it doesn’t sound as if the Biden administration is putting up a big fight to reinstate it. When people who were literally on a plane heard the news, their response reflected this chaotic new moment in the pandemic, a mixture of cheers and fresh fears.

But if you look at people’s attitudes broadly, Americans have been drifting toward normalcy. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation’s March poll, 27 percent of Americans say they have basically returned to doing what they normally did before the pandemic. Another 14 percent said that they never changed their behavior — meaning nearly half of the country is living as if Covid-19 had never happened. On the other end of the spectrum, 17 percent of Americans say they are still not doing most of the activities they did before the pandemic.

The largest group, 42 percent of the US, is somewhere in the middle. These Americans say they are doing some — but not all — of their pre-pandemic activities. If you combine this group with the people who have returned to normal, more than half of the country is now taking it less seriously, as the government and businesses continue to encourage a return to economic and social activity.

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But it’s hard to avoid exposure when the combined policy response from federal, state, and local authorities is no longer based on helping people do that. In general, the government is now focused almost entirely on limiting hospitalizations and deaths and otherwise allowing a return to pre-pandemic activities. Hospitalizations are currently plateauing nationally after a long decline. Deaths are still dropping from their peak during the winter omicron wave.

With so many vaccinated or previously infected with the virus, we would expect to see fewer severe cases. But the virus is still spreading. The difference now is, the government and businesses are tacitly and overtly acknowledging they can only do so much about that. Delta Air Lines, in its response to the court ruling lifting the mask mandate, initially referred to Covid-19 as an ordinary seasonal disease — before backtracking.

Instead of one cohesive Covid-19 response, people are left making millions of individual decisions that also ultimately limit other people’s ability to steer clear of the virus.

As President Joe Biden said on Tuesday, when asked whether Americans should continue to mask on planes despite the mandate being rescinded: “That’s up to them.”

The uncomfortable truth is there is only so much one person can do now. Wearing masks, avoiding crowded indoor spaces, and staying up to date on vaccinations are still the playbook for reducing your risks from Covid-19. But with so many people moving on, there is not a foolproof plan for avoiding infection.

“We’re in a position where you’d have to have really compelling reasons to try to avoid exposure, given society’s failure to make it easy to avoid exposure,” Justin Feldman, a social epidemiologist at Harvard University, told me.

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At previous points in the pandemic, it seemed clear what would need to happen next to start loosening our pandemic rules: cases needed to fall. New tools were arriving all the time to help that happen. First, we were waiting for the vaccines to be approved and then for people to get vaccinated. A few months later, we were waiting for news on booster shots, and the looming omicron wave promised to spread immunity throughout much of the population, albeit at a high cost.

But at this point, few if any new interventions are coming even as cases keep climbing. The toolbox has been stocked — vaccines, therapeutics, tests — and it’s now left to each person to decide how they’ll use the tools.

Society is making a difficult pivot, asking people who have lived through the most extreme social and economic disruption of their lives, all because of the novel coronavirus, to regard it now as part of the milieu. We are transitioning from a world of stay-at-home orders, business closures, and universal masking requirements to a choose-your-own-pandemic experience.

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With such a dizzying information environment, it’s no surprise the pandemic is messing with our heads. Experts were warning about decision fatigue a year ago, and research indicates the last two years have made a lot of people’s anxiety worse. One survey-based study in Europe found that people who had a higher interest in the pandemic were more likely to show signs of neuroticism. People with higher levels of anxiety were more likely to perceive a higher level of risk from Covid-19, according to another US-based study.

When something as simple as asking a coworker to go get a drink can feel fraught, people are bound to be stressed out. Every social interaction comes with a complex decision tree: Would that person be comfortable going out in public? I’m supposed to go see my parents this weekend — so if I go out tonight, can I get tested in time?

“It’s a lot of cognitive engagement. Having to engage in that calculus all the time is so wearing that I think it makes people just stay home,” Cagney told me.

Or they may go the other way and largely give up on taking precautions. After all, a lot of other people have.

Zaxxon wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 5:18 pm COVID isn't going anywhere anytime soon (which, by my estimation, means at minimum several years from now).

Kurth wrote: Tue Apr 19, 2022 10:24 am And I’m done with it, too. I’ve got a flight to San Fran this Thursday and then cross-country flights to Philly and D.C. later this month and early next. Unless the mask mandate is reinstated on Alaska, I won’t be wearing one.

Albert Camus wrote:All I maintain is that on this earth there are pestilences and there are victims, and it's up to us, so far as possible, not to join forces with the pestilences. That may sound simple to the point of childishness; I can't judge if it's simple, but I know it's true.

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 8:45 pm

Kurth wrote: Tue Apr 19, 2022 10:24 am And I’m done with it, too. I’ve got a flight to San Fran this Thursday and then cross-country flights to Philly and D.C. later this month and early next. Unless the mask mandate is reinstated on Alaska, I won’t be wearing one.

I've been thinking for two days about how to reply your post, namely because I wanted to respond in a constructive way.

In that spirit, I've decided I can only quote the works of philosopher (and author) Albert Camus from his 1947 book, The Plague.

Albert Camus wrote:All I maintain is that on this earth there are pestilences and there are victims, and it's up to us, so far as possible, not to join forces with the pestilences. That may sound simple to the point of childishness; I can't judge if it's simple, but I know it's true.

I can't claim it's an original quote or one that hasn't been bandied about during the last 2+ years. However, imho it still applies. Arguably more so than ever.

I marvel at these young people: drinking their coffee, they tell clear, plausible stories. If they are asked what they did yesterday, they aren't embarrassed: they bring you up to date in a few words. If I were in their place, I'd fall all over myself.
― Jean-Paul Sartre, Nausea

$iljanus wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 8:43 am For me I find it ridiculous that of all the restrictions that have been challenged, the least onerous of all of them gets challenged and struck down in court.

Also some of the experts being interviewed today pointed out that while airplanes have good air filtration systems, buses are pretty dismal.

malchior wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 8:51 am

$iljanus wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 8:43 am For me I find it ridiculous that of all the restrictions that have been challenged, the least onerous of all of them gets challenged and struck down in court.

True but it is one of the most politicized one (thanks Trump!). It is a symbol for oppression to a portion of the population. Because we are *that broken*.

YellowKing wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 9:16 am While I'm pro-mask, my flight a week ago was repeatedly delayed, and at one point diverted to another airport due to weather. All told I spent nearly 10 hours masked up, and it freaking SUCKED.

When I took logic in high school, my favorite logical fallacy (yes, I had one - don't judge) was "argument of the beard". I actually think it informs some of the current arguments about masks, airplanes/buses/trains, and other aspects of pandemic response. First off, I know I'm not a philosopher or logician. My understanding of "argument of the beard" comes from a high school logic class in the 1980s. So don't dunk on me if I don't grasp the subtleties or misuse the fallacy a bit. But my simple understanding is this - if you pluck one hair from a beard, obviously it is still a beard, right? Pluck one more, still a beard. But if you make that argument for every hair, eventually you will say that a clean-shaven person has a beard. As I understand it, the fallacy is that if you only define the extremes (beard vs. clean shaven), there will be no single moment when they meet on the hair-plucking continuum. A continuous variable of beardedness is treated categorically. So what does this have to do with the pandemic? As mask mandates drop, some of the arguments are about whether one-way masking works or doesn't work. If high-quality masks work, then aren't you protected if you wear one? Or will you get infected if others don't mask?

But this isn't about whether one-way masking works or not, just as it is not about beard vs. clean shaven. Yes, masks work, but they aren't perfect, and one-way masking works less well than collective masking. So those who mask are now at higher risk than they used to be. More broadly, if we cast everything in the extremes, we end up with false choices. Lockdown vs. let 'er rip. Mask forever vs. never mask. We lose the shades of gray and ability to recognize that incremental reductions or increases in risk matter. Extreme definitions also lead to definition creep. If you start with a lockdown and remove one protective element, is it still a lockdown? What about two protections removed? And so forth, until we are down to a few straggling hairs and still calling it a lush beard.

I know this is risk analysis 101, basic harm reduction principles, and so forth. We don't need the "argument of the beard" to understand the importance of continuous risk functions. But I think it is helpful in calling out black-and-white thinking and not misleading people. If you are riding a bus, plane, or train, your risk is now higher than it used to be, even if you wear a mask. We can argue about level of risk or its acceptability, but let's not pretend it is zero or unchanged.

And for the inevitable comments on this thread that "masks don't work", well, that's back to the black-and-white thinking. Masks reduce your inhaled dose and risk of infection, but don't eliminate them. We can argue about efficacy, but it's not 0% or 100%.

Anyway, hopefully we can train ourselves to wince when we see headlines like "One-way masking works" or "Masks don't work", because they push us into extreme positions and false choices.

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 10:19 amAlso, the Biden administration absolutely needs to appeal for the reasons mentioned above. It's not about the masks. It's about a court being able to cut the legs out of public health response during an infectious disease outbreak. If they don't appeal this, our ability to address future disease outbreaks will be diminished. I know thinking about that excites some people, but you can still refer to my comments above.

YellowKing wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 9:16 am While I'm pro-mask, my flight a week ago was repeatedly delayed, and at one point diverted to another airport due to weather. All told I spent nearly 10 hours masked up, and it freaking SUCKED.

Daehawk wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 11:55 am The pharmacy lady thought I was lucky Id never had Covid.

TL;DR: I'll wear a mask in public indoor settings, tyvm.

Here are 2 CDC COVID maps. The community level map on the L shows low levels (green) almost everywhere. The map on the R shows COVID transmission levels where very few places have low transmission (blue) & large swaths are high (orange & red). The green map is disinformation.

U.S. reporting more than 50,000 coronavirus cases a day on average, highest since March 3

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 10:03 pm I now know of someone that has had COVID-19 three times. Maybe the next exposure will be protective.

Kurth wrote: Tue Apr 26, 2022 12:54 am Questions:

(1) How's that person doing?
(2) To what extent have they been taking precautions to avoid getting COVID?
(3) For any of their cases, do they (or you) have any understanding of how they got it?
(4) How far apart were their cases?
(5) Have they changed their behavior at all as a result of getting COVID not once, not twice, but three times?

The researchers wrote that the increased risks “were evident regardless of age, race, sex, and other cardiovascular risk factors, including obesity, hypertension, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and hyperlipidemia; they were also evident in people without any cardiovascular disease before exposure to covid-19, providing evidence that these risks might manifest even in people at low risk of cardiovascular disease.”

Smoove_B wrote: Tue Apr 26, 2022 8:33 amRegarding whether or not to get it if you're in your 50s...it's complicated.

Max Peck wrote: Tue Apr 26, 2022 8:53 am

Smoove_B wrote: Tue Apr 26, 2022 8:33 amRegarding whether or not to get it if you're in your 50s...it's complicated.

Is it complicated because there's an actual downside (in terms of personal impact) to an additional booster dose, or is it because in the big picture those additional doses would have more impact elsewhere (i.e. a dose is better given to someone who isn't vaccinated than someone who is)?

Max Peck wrote: Tue Apr 26, 2022 8:53 am Is it complicated because there's an actual downside (in terms of personal impact) to an additional booster dose, or is it because in the big picture those additional doses would have more impact elsewhere (i.e. a dose is better given to someone who isn't vaccinated than someone who is)?

LordMortis wrote: Tue Apr 26, 2022 9:39 am I don't know if it's me, but I moved to CNBC when Nightly Business Reports went away. I started out very happy with them but in the last year it really feels (I don't have data so I can't tell if it's me or them) like their "how does the news affect business" approach to news has become increasingly editorialized to "how do we keep the business world happy in the political realm and the retail investor engaged in that business world happiness?" A year ago, they were the primary reason I wasn't cutting the cord. Now, I'm like "after I cut the cord, is getting a service for $2 a day worth it just to continue to get CNBC?"

I think my dis-satisfaction really coincided with their "we got shots", Gottleib says it's coming up roses (starting around July 2021), Let the spice flow approach that keeps on saying the pandemic is over in the US and then emphasizing the attack releasing so much cash into the system (under Biden, we never discuss spending prior to January 2021)