Political Randomness

[malchior]

Do democracies really fix their mistakes? The recent track record has not ... been super solid either.

In general and over time, yes - at least better than the alternative. Plus, part of our problem is that our democratic institutions have been breaking down, impairing our ability to fix mistakes.

Yeah I'm more talking about the very recent trend across a decent chunk of the advanced economies we are seeing. It definitely feels like a big shift is occurring and I can point at areas where dictatorships are outperforming us too. It's a weird time.

[El Guapo]

Do democracies really fix their mistakes? The recent track record has not ... been super solid either.

In general and over time, yes - at least better than the alternative. Plus, part of our problem is that our democratic institutions have been breaking down, impairing our ability to fix mistakes.

Yeah I'm more talking about the very recent trend across a decent chunk of the advanced economies we are seeing. It definitely feels like a big shift is occurring and I can point at areas where dictatorships are outperforming us too. It's a weird time.

I don't think there's any question that dictatorships can outperform democracies at times (particularly flawed democracies), but over time I don't think there's any real doubt that democracies are better at self-correcting.

[Carpet_pissr]

BTW I don't know if anyone else has noticed but Twitter has to my eyes dramatically altered it's algorithm. I'm seeing non-stop hard right (read strong fascist) voices that I don't follow. I followed a few for visibility and now they dominate my newsfeed. It is sorted by 'Top Tweets' but when I switch to latest Tweets it looks more normalized. They are pushing hard right content all of a sudden.

Latest Tweets is definitely the way to go (and use an adblocker).

I figured it out. It was definitely the 'Top Tweets'. The settings are local and I had done a clean install on my new rig. Still the behavior is almost useful. I can switch to right-wing propaganda mode by changing to 'Top Tweets'. What's head scratching to me is again the same followers, same behaviors since I'm logged in, but I'm being delivered stuff that has maybe 100 likes, low follower counts, but is essentially radical right-wing bullshit. How are those the "Top Tweets"?

Da, capitalist devil. We know how run the twitter so you see light.

[Pyperkub]

Do democracies really fix their mistakes? The recent track record has not ... been super solid either.

In general and over time, yes - at least better than the alternative. Plus, part of our problem is that our democratic institutions have been breaking down, impairing our ability to fix mistakes.

Yeah I'm more talking about the very recent trend across a decent chunk of the advanced economies we are seeing. It definitely feels like a big shift is occurring and I can point at areas where dictatorships are outperforming us too. It's a weird time.

I don't think there's any question that dictatorships can outperform democracies at times (particularly flawed democracies), but over time I don't think there's any real doubt that democracies are better at self-correcting.

Not even just "self-correcting", but in many other concrete ways. Think transfer of power. The end of a dictatorship (even if just death by natural causes), generally leads to massive uncertainty, if not outright armed conflict.

[Blackhawk]

Do we even qualify as a democracy anymore?

[Freyland]

I vote "no".

[Carpet_pissr]

I vote "no".

Rigged!!

[LordMortis]

Do we even qualify as a democracy anymore?

[Pyperkub]

I'm getting very leery of Ex-NatSec people 'consulting' for Dictatorships:

A former CIA officer who spied on Qatar’s rivals to help the tiny Arab country land this year’s World Cup is now under FBI scrutiny and newly obtained documents show he offered clandestine services that went beyond soccer to try to influence U.S. policy, an Associated Press investigation found.

The monthslong FBI probe focuses on whether Kevin Chalker’s work for Qatar broke laws related to foreign lobbying, surveillance and exporting sensitive technologies and tradecraft, said two people with knowledge of the investigation who requested anonymity because they weren’t authorized to discuss it.

Per the click through, this isn't the first time for Qatar:

The FBI has seized the electronic data of a retired four-star general who authorities say made false statements and withheld “incriminating” documents about his role in an illegal foreign lobbying campaign on behalf of the wealthy Persian Gulf nation of Qatar.

New federal court filings obtained Tuesday outlined a potential criminal case against former Marine Gen. John R. Allen, who led U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan before being tapped in 2017 to lead the influential Brookings Institution think tank.

It’s part of an expanding investigation that has ensnared Richard G. Olson, a former ambassador to the United Arab Emirates and Pakistan who pleaded guilty to federal charges last week, and Imaad Zuberi, a prolific political donor now serving a 12-year prison sentence on corruption charges. Several members of Congress have been interviewed as part of the investigation.

[pr0ner]

Nancy Pelosi's husband Paul was violently attacked in the Pelosis' home this morning by someone who was there looking for Nancy. Paul suffered blunt force injuries to his head and body, and the attacker had him tied up while waiting for Nancy when the police arrived.

[Jaymann]

JFC, these bastards are the absolute scum of the earth. Worse than the shittiest hack writer could envision.

[malchior]

Loving how they seamlessly switch over to crime be high in San Fran.

https://mobile.twitter.com/gtconway3d/s ... 5367460864

[Alefroth]

It's nearly Sunday. It was quieter in Brazil than I thought it would be.

https://www.npr.org/2022/10/28/11319620 ... onaro-lula

[Smoove_B]

Jesus. Fractured skull? This could have been so much worse; this was clearly intended to be so much worse.

https://twitter.com/MacFarlaneNews/stat ... 0611159040

Per Speaker Pelosi spokesman: “Paul Pelosi underwent successful surgery to repair a skull fracture and serious injuries to his right arm and hands."

[Carpet_pissr]

Loving how they seamlessly switch over to crime be high in San Fran.

https://mobile.twitter.com/gtconway3d/s ... 5367460864

Yes, this was TOTALLY a "random crime". Not even the most rabid Fox frothers are going to believe that.

[Blackhawk]

We've had a rash of "Where's Nancy" break-ins around here, too.

[Carpet_pissr]

I mean...

NANCY is ranked as the 29th most popular given name in the United States with an estimated population of 1,335,833.
This name is in the 99th percentile, this means that nearly 0% of all the first names are more popular.
There are 418.94 people named NANCY for every 100,000 Americans.
This name is most often used as a first name, 99% of the time.
Based on the analysis of 100 years worth of data from the Social Security Administration's (SSA) Baby Names database, the estimated population of people named NANCY is 776,881.

[Jaymann]

Apparently there has been a steep drop off in Karens.

[Isgrimnur]

Apparently there has been a steep drop off in Karens.

[Blackhawk]

Maybe it's a test. You're supposed to yell, "Found him!" and give him a big noogie.

[Isgrimnur]

There are five 10yo boys running around with the name Karen.

[Kraken]

Y'know how the right is whipping up fear of crime? Why do people buy into it? Here are some stats indicating that it might be a tad overblown. Granted, they're two years old. IDK much about other parts of the country, but I do know that in Mass. last year property crimes were down, violent crimes up slightly.

The Northeast is the region with the lowest crime rates. The property crime rate in the Northeast was 34% lower than in the rest of the country, and the violent crime rate was 26% lower than in other states.

Four of the bottom five states by property crime rate in 2020 were in the Northeast, as well as all five of the lowest states by violent crime rate. New Hampshire and New Jersey were in the bottom five states for both property and violent crime.

States in the South and West had the highest crime rates in 2020. Washington, DC, which is in the South, and New Mexico, which is in the West, were in the top five states for both property and violent crimes.

Now I understand why this issue plays so well in red states. I mean sure, boooo crime, please stop criming. But "Massachusetts had the lowest property crime rate, at 1,053 crimes per 100,000 residents," so it's a ginned-up issue here, insofar as it's an issue.

Anyway, some good graphs at the link.

[hepcat]

It's a rallying cry for the right. There is no evidence that crime goes down or up significantly under republican or democrat oversight. But it fires up their base who will believe any weird theory put before them if it supports their world view that the left is trying to destroy America.

In Chicago, we have the loathsome People Who Play by the Rules PAC, and they are just blasting out misleading ad after misleading ad. Usually these disgusting shitheels use racism as their tool.

[Kraken]

Well, it came as news to me that red states have a lot more crime than blue states. Stands to reason, with the guns and poverty and antisocial attitudes and rudimentary services. Crime in general just isn't something I think about much.

[The Meal]

Nancy Pelosi's husband Paul was violently attacked in the Pelosis' home this morning by someone who was there looking for Nancy. Paul suffered blunt force injuries to his head and body, and the attacker had him tied up while waiting for Nancy when the police arrived.

[Max Peck]

There are five 10yo boys running around with the name Karen.

And they're probably all from Armenian families.

[Isgrimnur]

There are five 10yo boys running around with the name Karen.

And they're probably all from Armenian families.

TIL

The female name stems from Scandinavia while the male has Iranian roots.
...
Karen has a different meaning in Armenia as it is linked to an ancient Iranian family. The House of Karen (or Karin, Caren) was one of seven powerful aristocratic families in Iran

[Jaymann]

There are five 10yo boys running around with the name Karen.

And they're probably all from Armenian families.

TIL

The female name stems from Scandinavia while the male has Iranian roots.
...
Karen has a different meaning in Armenia as it is linked to an ancient Iranian family. The House of Karen (or Karin, Caren) was one of seven powerful aristocratic families in Iran

Iran, where managers have the shortest life expectancy.

[Max Peck]

I stumbled onto that factoid a few days ago. I was reading about the 1999 Armenian parliament shooting and noticed that one of the victims and one of the shooters, both male, were named Karen.

[gilraen]

There are five 10yo boys running around with the name Karen.

And they're probably all from Armenian families.

That's what I was thinking too. Very common Armenian name. Pronounced with the emphasis on the second syllable, BTW.

[Holman]

It's nearly Sunday. It was quieter in Brazil than I thought it would be.

https://www.npr.org/2022/10/28/11319620 ... onaro-lula

But now the coup is underway.

https://twitter.com/BenjaminFogel/statu ... LMSdIz4nkw

Security forces are preventing people from voting in areas won by Lula (Bolsonaro's opponent) in the first election. They have already refused orders from other parts of the government to cease their activities.

[malchior]

Yeah it looks like an autocoup is happening. Apparently their Electroral Court told the police to stop detaining voters but while also saying it was only "delaying" them and no one was being prevented.

[Alefroth]

Lula just pulled ahead at 70% counted and will probably keep widening the lead. We will soon see how far Bolsonaro will go.

[Alefroth]

90% counted and Lula is up by 1%.

I wonder if Brazil has an automatic recount system.

[Holman]

90% counted and Lula is up by 1%.

I wonder if Brazil has an automatic recount system.

I wonder if Bolsonaro won't just declare martial law at midnight.

[Alefroth]

It certainly seems within the realm of possibility.

[malchior]

90% counted and Lula is up by 1%.

I wonder if Brazil has an automatic recount system.

I wonder if Bolsonaro won't just declare martial law at midnight.

You'd think he'd try something that looked legal first while setting the groundwork for that.

[Alefroth]

Maybe arrest the Electoral Court and charge them with corruption?

[malchior]

Maybe arrest the Electoral Court and charge them with corruption?

Yup - one possibility. It's close enough that he needs something to hang it on.

[Alefroth]

Lula wins!

JB's concession imminent.