Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Smoove_B]

Basically two things being communicated now:

(1) Money is needed to avoid problems in the Fall/Winter of 2022/23 (true)

(2) We are urging states to adopt indoor masking polices at a local level based on the data we're publishing, but they can do whatever they want (true)

This isn't new information, but it is the first I've heard directly from the CDC director that they are urging locals to adopt indoor masking when the data is showing a surge. However, it sounded more (to me) like a continued abdication of the CDC's role in all this. Of course they can't force locals to wear masks (or adopt policies), but the muddling of the issue over the last year and the push for a vaccine-only strategy has undermined the message I heard this morning.

EDIT: Dr. Fauci is getting into the science of the virus' evolution. Namely, how each new variant starting with Omicron has had increased transmissibility. Added with waning immunity (vaccines less effective over time) and reduced mitigation (like indoor masking), we are continuing to fuel the pandemic.

[El Guapo]

For the first time in six weeks (is there something happening?), the White House will hold a Covid-19 briefing. Maybe they're going to tell us it's really, really over. But make sure you wash your hands.

It's happening right now and I'm trying to watch, but not sure if I can stay present.

Maybe they're going to bring Serbia's Eurovision entry on to give handwashing demonstrations.

[Smoove_B]

With the Q&A:

(1) The FDA has all the data for <5 and it's currently being reviewed; no ETA on when vaccinations would be offered. Numerous questions from the press on when (days, weeks, months) but no position/answer being provided other then "as soon as possible".

(2) Continued reiteration that without money from Congress, the U.S. will be in bad shape for Fall/Winter 2022/23, both in terms of prevention (being able to offer more vaccinations) and treatment (diminished access to treatments). Unless we start negotiating with producers now, other countries will pull these resources and our ability to respond will be diminished.

(3)They are looking into the 5 day rebound effect with Paxlovid to see if treatment protocol needs adjustment; People aren't dying with 5 day rebound, just re-experiencing symptoms, meaning they're still potentially infectious.

Heavy focus on what's looming on the horizon. Feels like a shark tank pitch - we need money. I am left with feeling that the virus is now clearly out-competing out research/science. There was talk about updating vaccines to try and address Omicron and Omicron-variants but there isn't research yet to demonstrate if that will be helpful in boosting / lengthening immunity. Acknowledgment that the new variants (Omicron and beyond) are problematic with ability to escape immunity, reducing effectiveness of vaccines to protect against illness.

[malchior]

So the approach from a public policy standpoint is 'let's see what happens'.

[Zaxxon]

So the approach from a public policy standpoint is 'let's see what happens'.

Continued 'fuck around and find out' methodology.

[coopasonic]

The CEO has announced we are going hybrid starting 9/6. There goes 30% of my gaming time!

[Smoove_B]

So the approach from a public policy standpoint is 'let's see what happens'.

Continued 'fuck around and find out' methodology.

I really wasn't picking up a tone of urgency for this briefing, which I guess on-brand at this point. During the final moments of the Q&A the CDC director continued the "wear a mask, test before gathering, etc..." message I've heard her say before, still pushing this on an individual level. Nothing about prior mandates on federal properties, transportation, etc... None of the press that were asking questions asked anything about how one-way masking dramatically reduces effectiveness, so that was a disappointment.

I know I'm in a very different spot than 99% of the people hearing/seeing all this, but I found the disconnect between the pitch for more money and the downplaying of what's happening right now odd. While it's true that hospitalizations are down, there was nothing about Long Covid or what it could like if people are on their 3+ infection headed into the Fall of 2022.

As we continue to churn out variant candidates, I guess we'll see what's next.

[LordMortis]

On my walk this morning, everyone I passed was masked but I was not. That was a first. I've never felt like the guy ignoring hygiene in any circumstance until today. I wonder what changed that made everyone mask up... Especially when on Sunday I was one of just a couple of masked people at the grocer and the other masked person I saw wore her mask below her nose. (I still don't get that, especially as we are like six months out or more since seemingly anyone has mandated masks but health care facilities)

While it's true that hospitalizations are down

Not here, they're not. We've lost the "Flattening the curve" for over a month

https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-coron ... s-and-maps

[malchior]

Right. They aren't making a good case for the funds. It isn't just a lack of urgency. It's beyond into a lack of *doing anything* productive or proactive. And a good reason for why that could be happening is our system is collapsing politically. They know this is too hot a potato. It's pretty much the only thing that justifies this approach to me.

[Zaxxon]

So the approach from a public policy standpoint is 'let's see what happens'.

Continued 'fuck around and find out' methodology.

I really wasn't picking up a tone of urgency for this briefing, which I guess on-brand at this point. During the final moments of the Q&A the CDC director continued the "wear a mask, test before gathering, etc..." message I've heard her say before, still pushing this on an individual level. Nothing about prior mandates on federal properties, transportation, etc... None of the press that were asking questions asked anything about how one-way masking dramatically reduces effectiveness, so that was a disappointment.

I have my first flight of the COVID era this week. I fully plan to mask up through the airports as well as be one of maybe 5-10% who are doing it (and maybe I'm too much of a sweet summer child with that estimate). I will admit that I'm not planning to mask during the work event, because I'm sure I'd be the only one and am not sure the meager benefit is worth it given that along with the minor social hit I'd take from colleagues. Neither the state in question nor my employer are pushing masking at all anymore. If only a mandate of some sort were an option.

It's also interesting to me that within my own family, I'm the least-conservative in terms of my own concern about the pandemic at this stage (I'm OK being around classmates of my kids sans masks, I let them have sleepovers, etc), and yet I'm certain I'm in the top 5% of conservativitudinality for the USA in general (my kids are still masking at school, we all masked up for my kiddo's concert last night, I'll travel-mask, etc). This trip has me more on edge than I expected it would.

Individual choice is a morass, to be sure.

While it's true that hospitalizations are down

Ed Yong would like to 'Well, actually...' you regarding the issues surrounding this focus (which I know you know, but I'm taking the opening to share the link anyway).

[Smoove_B]

I should have clarified down from prior peaks. They're definitely going up (my own state has ICU levels we haven't seen since March), but they're not at high enough levels where anyone cares (apparently). I'd still love to know what the new magic number is (hospitalizations; daily deaths) where it will be decided masks are necessary (but obviously too late).

I will admit that I'm not planning to mask during the work event, because I'm sure I'd be the only one and am not sure the meager benefit is worth it given that along with the minor social hit I'd take from colleagues.

I get it, though my feeds are full of people that went to conferences and large work-related functions that now have COVID. Anecdotally I have friends of the family and extended associates that are going to restaurants and no longer masking indoors and they're doing so without a problem. I've upgraded from the KN94 to an N95 for going into stores. At this rate I'm confident I'll be in the elastomer mask for Winter of 2023. I've turned down a few work related social functions over the last month because of masking and I have a work event coming up in July that I cannot avoid where I'm confident I'm going to be the only person wearing a mask and I'm guessing it's going to be awkward as hell because of it. I'm going to a birthday gathering on Sunday - but wearing a mask because there are people I don't know in attendance.

In summary, I have trust issues now and I don't see that ending.

[Max Peck]

I am left with feeling that the virus is now clearly out-competing out research/science.

I'm still hopeful that the research into nasal spray vaccines and mucosal immunity will bear fruit. From what I've read, it could have a significant impact on transmission as well as lessening severity of disease.

[ImLawBoy]

I will admit that I'm not planning to mask during the work event, because I'm sure I'd be the only one and am not sure the meager benefit is worth it given that along with the minor social hit I'd take from colleagues.

I get it, though my feeds are full of people that went to conferences and large work-related functions that now have COVID.

We're moving offices in the near future (as in to a different building, not just to different offices in the same building), and the floor today is having a "packing party" of sorts with everyone in the office and ordering and eating lunch together and having a jolly old time. I'm sitting at my home office right now avoiding their mini-super spreader event (do the mini and the super cancel each out and just make it a spreader event?) and I don't have to worry about any social hit for it. One of the many benefits of cancer! I recommend everyone try it!* I'm looking forward** to hearing about how many people test positive after this.

* On second thought, maybe don't actually try it.

** Not really looking forward to it.

[Zaxxon]

I get it, though my feeds are full of people that went to conferences and large work-related functions that now have COVID. Anecdotally I have friends of the family and extended associates that are going to restaurants and no longer masking indoors and they're doing so without a problem. I've upgraded from the KN94 to an N95 for going into stores. At this rate I'm confident I'll be in the elastomer mask for Winter of 2023. I've turned down a few work related social functions over the last month because of masking and I have a work event coming up in July that I cannot avoid where I'm confident I'm going to be the only person wearing a mask and I'm guessing it's going to be awkward as hell because of it.

My feeds show similar. Thankfully this event is my department only, and there are fewer than a dozen of us, all vaxxed. Not that that's zero risk by any stretch, but a multi-hundred person conference this is not. The travel is what has me most freaked, but I'll be showing off an N95 the whole way.

I'd love to have turned this one down, but I made it 2+ years turning them down, and it's finally caught up to me. Couldn't wriggle out of this one.

[Smoove_B]

I maintain - and continue to maintain - if I'm going to get COVID it's going to happen because I'm socializing with family or friends. I'm not going to put myself in a position to get COVID at work or when with work associates indoors. Asymptomatic spread is still believed to be the primary route so I can't even rely on eyeballing someone and getting the hell out if they are congested, coughing, leaking, etc... Instead I need to trust that people in my close circle are doing things to minimize their own risk and they're not secretly trying to kill me. My ability to trust work acquaintances or randos? Zero.

[Zaxxon]

An extremely defensible position.

[El Guapo]

Apparently my wife's sister tested positive today. Honestly that she and my in-laws hadn't yet tested positive is arguably the most shocking thing for me out of the pandemic, given the almost complete lack of caution on their part. And for the sister it's not for a lack of testing, as she has had to do regular testing for awhile now due to working for a university.

I'm sure that my kids and I will get it eventually (probably my kids first then me). Also entirely possible that we've already had asymptomatic cases without realizing it (that none of us tested positive when my wife got it may provide some support for that as well). We'll see.

[Jeff V]

I maintain - and continue to maintain - if I'm going to get COVID it's going to happen because I'm socializing with family or friends.

Son got it a couple of weeks ago. Wife got it a week later (since she works in healthcare, it's amazing she made it this far without ever getting it). So with two Covid-positive people in the house, my daughter and I still have managed to not get it.

Maybe because I rarely socialize with friends anymore.

[Defiant]

Not covid but monkeypox:

https://twitter.com/Amalgamquietude/sta ... 5409203200

[Smoove_B]

It's true. I mentioned it on the other side of the fence and I'm following along. Very unusual and certainly something to monitor. I'm sure we'll be fine.

In unrelated news, the new Community Spread maps have dropped (I'm sure you were waiting, just like me). I'm astounded at the continued blatant attempt to obfuscate what's happening.

NOTE: Last week it was 63% of counties in the United States recommended for universal masking. This week it's 73%. Or not. Carry on.

https://twitter.com/wsbgnl/status/1527416615121211393

New “community levels” are out

Under the pre-Feb 25th guidance universal masking would be recommended in 73% of counties. Under the new guidance universal masking is recommended in 9% of counties.

[Smoove_B]

And for my MA OOers:

https://twitter.com/jonlevyBU/status/15 ... 4865051649

According to DESE, in the past 2 weeks, ~ 3% of kids and 6% of staff in MA got COVID. And that’s an underestimate. Along with health risks, massive disruption to education and to lives of working parents. This is not how we prioritize in-person education.

WTF?

[Kraken]

Welp, against my better judgment I rolled the covid dice with a minus to save tonight, and went to the first indoor performance of any kind that I've seen in nearly 3 years. Wife got tickets for my birthday to a string quartet playing the songs of Queen at a synagogue in Brookline, which was as enjoyable as it sounds if you like both Queen and classical music. To reduce our risk, we ate at home instead of having dinner in the city, as we normally would. The show was a little over an hour, the audience was maybe 25% masked (I had thought masks were mandatory), and it was a giant space with people not packed too close, so I hope we dodged the covid bullet.

But y'know, we're 65 years old and I don't want to spend any more of my remaining years afraid to go out.

That said, we're in a major (underreported) surge right now, so the timing really sucked. If I do get sick, I had it coming because I knew better.

[Max Peck]

I don't want to spend any more of my remaining years afraid to go out.

Sounds like maybe you need a brain parasite.

[El Guapo]

And for my MA OOers:

https://twitter.com/jonlevyBU/status/15 ... 4865051649

According to DESE, in the past 2 weeks, ~ 3% of kids and 6% of staff in MA got COVID. And that’s an underestimate. Along with health risks, massive disruption to education and to lives of working parents. This is not how we prioritize in-person education.

WTF?

As far as I can tell, literally everyone in Massachusetts other than my immediate family has covid right now. At least my son can now get his first booster this weekend.

[Zaxxon]

I get it, though my feeds are full of people that went to conferences and large work-related functions that now have COVID. Anecdotally I have friends of the family and extended associates that are going to restaurants and no longer masking indoors and they're doing so without a problem. I've upgraded from the KN94 to an N95 for going into stores. At this rate I'm confident I'll be in the elastomer mask for Winter of 2023. I've turned down a few work related social functions over the last month because of masking and I have a work event coming up in July that I cannot avoid where I'm confident I'm going to be the only person wearing a mask and I'm guessing it's going to be awkward as hell because of it.

My feeds show similar. Thankfully this event is my department only, and there are fewer than a dozen of us, all vaxxed. Not that that's zero risk by any stretch, but a multi-hundred person conference this is not. The travel is what has me most freaked, but I'll be showing off an N95 the whole way.

I'd love to have turned this one down, but I made it 2+ years turning them down, and it's finally caught up to me. Couldn't wriggle out of this one.

Whelp, I'm back. Now the clock ticks to see whether I rolled a save or not. On the bright side, my 5-10% masked estimate for the airport was low--I think actual was more like 15%. On my flight home I had an empty seat next to me, and the person next to that seat also masked properly the whole way. The office where my team met was largely empty other than our group. Small wins?

At least my kids will be boosted by tomorrow (which is not directly relevant to this post, but good news nonetheless).

[Smoove_B]

We're up over 5k new cases a day (which is like late January 2022 numbers), but I guess wild, uncontrolled spread is fine as long as hospitals aren't overrun.

My general disdain for humans has reached critical levels.

[Zaxxon]

We're up over 5k new cases a day (which is like late January 2022 numbers), but I guess wild, uncontrolled spread is fine as long as hospitals aren't overrun.

My general disdain for humans has reached critical levels.

You have high hopes. At this point, I think additional mitigations would largely be shot down even if hospitals become overrun again.

[El Guapo]

My general disdain for humans has reached critical levels.

Maybe you should try to contact Wesley Crusher and ask if you can become a Traveler.

[gbasden]

My general disdain for humans has reached critical levels.

The past six years have crushed any possible faith I had in my fellow humans. I'm ready to find a compound in the wilderness at this point.

[El Guapo]

We're up over 5k new cases a day (which is like late January 2022 numbers), but I guess wild, uncontrolled spread is fine as long as hospitals aren't overrun.

My general disdain for humans has reached critical levels.

You have high hopes. At this point, I think additional mitigations would largely be shot down even if hospitals become overrun again.

I think it would happen if members of the political and economic elite start dying. The question is whether anything short of that will trigger action.

[coopasonic]

I think it would happen if members of the political and economic elite start dying.

You mean the ones with access to the very best medical care and treatment, likely even if hospitals are completely overwhelmed.

[Smoove_B]

Just as a follow up, big study published regarding excess mortality in MA:

https://twitter.com/bhrenton/status/1527675312145846278

New in @JAMA_current: We find that more all-cause deaths occurred in the first 8 weeks of the Omicron wave in Massachusetts than in the 23 weeks of the Delta wave. Even if Omicron has a lower infection fatality rate, higher rates of spread = more deaths.

But it's no big deal. Just keep spreading it.

[RunningMn9]

We're up over 5k new cases a day (which is like late January 2022 numbers), but I guess wild, uncontrolled spread is fine as long as hospitals aren't overrun.

My general disdain for humans has reached critical levels.

One observation on these posts. When you compare the numbers, and say things like “highest numbers since Xxx”, you keep comparing to time periods where everyone concluded that everything was ok.

So when you say “late Jan 2022 numbers”, people are going to think “great!!” because Jan 2022 wasn’t that bad (or at least it was on the downslope in Jan 2022).

If things are on an upslope now, would be better to compare to the previous upslope, so we can understand what’s potentially coming (the front of a wave, not the back side).

Just a presentation tip. Carry on.

[Smoove_B]

I think about that, but it's hard to know where this will peak. But yes, in terms of rising cases it would be helpful to suggest we're looking like mid December of 2021. I'm looking more at a total number at this point to gauge circulating virus. And knowing we're doing everything we can to under-test and under-report, I can only imagine what the levels actually are. Will the official number have us at a higher peak than January of of 2021? I would bet on it. Higher than January of 2022? I'm guessing no. But it has set us on a very different trajectory for summer. And taken a few notches out of the argument for seasonal transmission. It's looking more and more like the people suggesting we can just expect another wave every 3-4 months are right.

[El Guapo]

I think it would happen if members of the political and economic elite start dying.

You mean the ones with access to the very best medical care and treatment, likely even if hospitals are completely overwhelmed.

Yup, them.

[naednek]

Our school is seeing a uptick in cases. Ethan's class had 3 notifications sent out in a week, Lila had two. We've made them wear masks when they are in class. They didn't like it. I explained to EThan that at this point if he catches Covid he's going to miss 6th grade promotion next week, miss going to Red Robin, miss going to a friends house for a after promotion party etc. After some grumbling he succumbed.

Today was open house. It was supposed to be outdoors and afterwards a thing with the principal indoors. Well the principal session was canceled due to the spike.

Outdoor open house was still on, but today it was extremely windy, so they moved it back inside the class. So desks were shoved next to each other. half the kids wearing masks, half not. I wasn't very pleased as even with the tables with their work on display, there were still enough room to space out their desks. The teacher had Covid last week, you think she would understand.

Just gotta get passed this week and my kids will be hermits again. (well at least not out and about as much)

[Zaxxon]

It's looking more and more like the people suggesting we can just expect another wave every 3-4 months are right.

[Smoove_B]

It was rather sobering to read people commenting that the NE is already fuct but that the rest of the United States can likely start enacting things like NPIs (i.e. masks) to avoid what we're about to experience...again. I'm sure they're all watching right now and totally going to be proactive to limit things getting out of control, right?

The modelers I saw earlier today suggested that deaths aren't going to be as high as what was seen during Omicron wave but possibly higher than Delta (or really close +/-). But freedom? Freedom is still off the charts, so there's that.

And yes, I know it's not just about deaths (truly). So much more countless suffering. At least here in parts of the NE some places are seeing more cases in schools (teachers and staff) now than they did during Omicron. I wonder what could be different?

[LawBeefaroni]

One of the departments had a nurse appreciation lunch last Thursday ( a week late due to scheduling). It's a business unit but there are 3 RNs on staff. I had a call so I just stopped by to say a few words and grab a plate and left. I was off Friday.

Came in today and the director told me that she had 5 (of about 12) call in sick today. One of the analysts had a cough and hoarseness Friday and they think it went around. Fortunately no one has tested positive for COVID (yet).

The RNs were all masked except when actually putting food in their mouths. They are all bug-free.

If we could just tie masking to productivity gains somehow....

[Zarathud]

Head cold, cough and hoarseness hit my daughter then my wife this month. Now it’s my turn.