Scooby's Werewolf Village - Game Over

[Bakhtosh]

BTW, I faked it. Yep thats right.

[tru1cy]

Sometimes we over think this stuff. With no information we should have lynched the obvious choice. Good work team

[redrun]

Well, there is one disadvantage to keeping bubbles alive.

-- Yup. Now, before morning/character_death - is it safe to keep Mr. Bubbles around for another day?

10 folks alive in the morning. Three wolves. X number of evil humans (0<=X<=2).
Worse case is that it's already moot, best case is 3 wolves & 7 good humans.
Tomorrow lynch (not Bubbles) = 9 remaining
Tomorrow night kill = 8
Tomorrow+1 lynch = 7
Tomorrow+1 kill = 6 (Mr. Bubbles MUST be dead before here.)

I don't really want to discuss this before the wolves have made their kill - but I do want
to be sure that someone good and human is keeping an eye on this tomorrow - otherwise,
I expect that wolves will do a quick kill train on a non-wolf tomorrow to protect the whore,
then look for one vote on any human in two days.

[Chaosraven]

1. Scoop20906
2. Mr Bubbles - live Wolf
5. Newcastle
7. Chaosraven - claims Special06 (goodpower3)
8. Unagi
9. redrun
14. Kraegor - claims Whore (goodpower4)
15. Bakhtosh - claims Weredog (goodpower5)
16. Austin
17. Semaj
18. tru1cy
--------------------------------------------------
3. Purge - dead human (claimed Villager)
4. theohall - dead Wolf - Berserker (evilpower1)
6. Mipe - dead human (claim Herbalist) (goodpower2)
10. Lassr - dead human
11. stessier - dead Seer (goodpower1)
12. Chris Grenard - dead human (claimed Villager)
13. Grundbegriff - dead human

[Bakhtosh]

I still think it was worth a shot. Killing Bubbles would have left us in no better position. We have 2 misses left. I do think we probably need to off Bubbles tomorrow - just to keep the wolves from getting numbers on us during the votes.

[Chaosraven]

1. Scoop20906
2. Mr Bubbles - live Wolf
5. Newcastle
7. Chaosraven - claims Special06 (goodpower3)
8. Unagi
9. redrun
14. Kraegor - claims Whore (goodpower4)
15. Bakhtosh - claims Weredog (goodpower5)
16. Austin
17. Semaj
18. tru1cy
----------------------------

So 11 tonight. If Kraegor sleeps with Mr B, then Mr B, Kraegor and I will all see the morning.

1. Scoop20906
5. Newcastle
8. Unagi
9. redrun
15. Bakhtosh - claims Weredog (goodpower5)
16. Austin
17. Semaj
18. tru1cy

-----------------------------

2 More wolves in that mix, 1 Victim for the evening.

10 Thursday with 3 Wolves - Lynch = 9
If Bubbles alive, kill = 8 but K/CR/MrB alive
8 Friday with Kraegor, Chaosraven, 3 others, MrB and 2 Wolves - Running 40% chance at Wolf
If Bubbles alive, kill= 6 and game is lost even with Kraegor and Chaosraven living

We would have 2 misses available with the Kraegor schtups MrB plan.

------------------------------
10 Thursday with 3 Wolves - Lynch =9
Kill=8
8 Friday, lynch MrB. If Mr B is 'splodie, scratch Chaosraven. 6 heading into night
Kill Kraegor =5 for morning
Saturday = 2 wolves and 3 others, miss = game loss

-------------------------------
As you can see, if MrB goes BOOM we still only have 2 misses, and that last "miss" is really nothing more than ONE Villager getting triggerhappy with his vote and a pair of wolves taking it to the bank.
Based on this collection of players, I'd be willing to bet that's a quick loss as none of you will be able to restrain yourselves and TALK first.

[Chaosraven]

Now then, if MrB is NOT a 'splodie:

10 in the morning, -MrB leaves 9
9 - (Kraegor) = 8
Friday 8 - 1lynch = 7
Frinight -1 =6
Saturday 6 -1 lynch = 5
Saturday night 5 -1 =4
That's Game Loss if neither Friday nor Saturday was a Wolf.

Once again, 2 Misses allowed.

[Chaosraven]

We have 2 Misses however you run it
(worse if the Whore takes someone down with her, or if there are 3 Berserkers)

Removing MrB depends on whether he goes BOOM as to what it does to us.
Leaving him alive allows them an extra Wolfpile vote to end the LAST Miss that much quicker.

[Chaosraven]

I still think it was worth a shot. Killing Bubbles would have left us in no better position.

It was, it still is, and anyone who thinks otherwise is either not paying any attention or really sucks at math.

[Mr Bubbles]

I still think it was worth a shot. Killing Bubbles would have left us in no better position.

It was, it still is, and anyone who thinks otherwise is either not paying any attention or really sucks at math.

I concur. Listen to Chaos and Bakhtosh. They know what they are talking about.

[Chaosraven]

2. Mr Bubbles - Mr Bubbles
3. Purge - Mr Bubbles
4. Newcastle - Mr Bubbles
12. tru1cy - Mr Bubbles

Bubbles at 4, Purge at 4.

If Bubbles goes BOOM, perhaps tru1cy and Newcastle?

Looking into this...

[Chaosraven]

I still think it was worth a shot. Killing Bubbles would have left us in no better position.

It was, it still is, and anyone who thinks otherwise is either not paying any attention or really sucks at math.

I concur. Listen to Chaos and Bakhtosh. They know what they are talking about.

OTOH killing him would save some needlessly slaughtered pixels he's been using up

[Mr Bubbles]

I still think it was worth a shot. Killing Bubbles would have left us in no better position.

It was, it still is, and anyone who thinks otherwise is either not paying any attention or really sucks at math.

I concur. Listen to Chaos and Bakhtosh. They know what they are talking about.

OTOH killing him would save some needlessly slaughtered pixels he's been using up

[Chaosraven]

Hmmm... this *IS* interesting.
If Kraegor was in contact with theohall (Wolf), here comes MrB with a seemingly innocuous comment.
And someone got it right away.

Im curious to see just how sick Remus is going to get with this game. Remus you going to add an NC-17 rating to this game?

/a bullhorn sounds in the distance, Newcastle's voice comes across

would be fitting if Lassr got that bit
or Austin
or Stessier

"Now where did you say I need to be at? Wardrobe? This is going to be fun."

Im curious to see just how sick Remus is going to get with this game. Remus you going to add an NC-17 rating to this game?

I don't follow (I approve, but I don't follow).

Why/what leads you to this. Did I miss something yummy?

Meanwhile someone else either didn't or acted like they didn't.

[Chaosraven]

and hey. wait - I never said/say that you annoy me - you Always say that I annoy you.

While Scoop cowers under his bed he smirks to himself, "Its working!!".

You know, wolves cower in dark places. Already sending coded messages??

You know wolves like to point out behavior that could be wolfish by other wolves?

indeed.

[Mr Bubbles]

and hey. wait - I never said/say that you annoy me - you Always say that I annoy you.

While Scoop cowers under his bed he smirks to himself, "Its working!!".

You know, wolves cower in dark places. Already sending coded messages??

You know wolves like to point out behavior that could be wolfish by other wolves?

indeed.

This post smells distinctly wolfish.

[Austin]

To Newcastle's point, if they thought Lassr was a herbie, they had to splodie on him. Then if Mipe was a Herbie, chances were very good that nobody could protect stessier. The protector is probably the best choice for the wolves to take out via zerk.

And would you try and attack the Herbie on the first night, the night where I do believe most 'protecters' protect themselves?

And again - why did they then waste the Zerker on Mipe? (although, I suppose Lassr and Mipe could have both been Herbies)

My thought is the "scooby snack" was them thinking Lassr was perhaps a weredog.

Heh. Yeah, never mind I was confused for a minute. I once again agree with Unagi.

[Chaosraven]

Lassr - seemed to be giving off "Weredog" as his Clue. Bad Move for a Weredog early.

ruh ro raggy, ri rell rarerolves!

Semaj, I sprinkled Scooby Snacks around your hut, maybe it'll draw them away from mine.

So what was he?
Not a Wolfsbane, likely not an Herbalist (who should protect himself First Night), etc.

If he were a Weredog, giving off this vibe within the first couple nights would be a bad idea, as the Wolves are allowed 2 Prepared Attacks.

Meaning that claiming such would make him a likely target for attack early, don't you think?

Likely: unpowered Villager looking to "take the hit"

[Chaosraven]

Alternative: Lassr was the Weredog, setting up his "this is why I smell like a Wolf" in the event a Seer scanned him.

If this is the case, a Master Wolf among the Wolves would mean they have his Role, and would offer it up for one of their own to use.
This would be Bakhtosh, as we count up our Good Specials (if they know one to be dead)

[Bakhtosh]

Likely: unpowered Villager looking to "take the hit"

That's a great play for an unpowered civilian. Are there any down sides? Obviously it does throw off the powered count a bit.

[Chaosraven]

Logic Proposal:

There is no Rabid Wolf.

Lassr was Killed
Grund was killed

both powerful players, but not converted.

stessier pretty well PROVEN as Seer (assuming Mr B ends up being a Wolf), so why kill him?
adding a Wolf with that sort of Alibi would have been monstrously powerful midgame like this.

I presume Unagi's "if you live we will lynch you" posts were meant to show a level of Village Distrust to make Wolves leave the Next Lynch alone...

[Chaosraven]

Likely: unpowered Villager looking to "take the hit"

That's a great play for an unpowered civilian. Are there any down sides? Obviously it does throw off the powered count a bit.

Which is why I think it more likely a play for Lassr to make than a blunder as a Weredog.

Our "powered count" is likely to be semi-screwed in the event there is a Master Wolf, and cannot be trusted 100% in any event.

[Chaosraven]

Mathematician - Every night able to determine either the number of powered players remaining or the number of wolves remaining.

Can we work with this?

Once we start lynching wolves, he could tell us if they were powered or not giving us at least some insight. Of course we would have to lynch him to be sure...but on the bright side, there might be two of them!

-- I wonder what the current count of powered players for the mathematician is now?
It should be nine, assuming that the lovers don't show up as a power. Losing a
wolf who is powered reduces the number of potential evil humans.
Also worth remembering that as number of powered players go down, may indicate
that evil humans have died.
If number of wolves goes down, but number of powered players doesn't, means we have an evil human.

Assuming Lassr was unpowered this number should be correct.
If there's a mathematician he will know if Lassr was unpowered or not.

[Chaosraven]

Hmmm.

Actually, if we do have a Mathematician with results for Monday Morning, Tuesday Morning, Wednesday Morning those may indeed be of some use to us.

What are the current odds of Mathematician living to see Thursday Morning?

Perhaps it would be best for the Mathematician (if there is one) to give us the previous 3 counts during the evening (i.e. right now) as the wolves choosing to eat him tonight would simply prove him 100% (and still narrow down their hiding spots)

[Chaosraven]

Player's Votes:
1. Scoop20906
2. Mr Bubbles - mipe
3. Purge
4. theohall - mipe
5. Newcastle
6. Mipe - Unagi
7. Chaosraven - mipe
8. Unagi - mipe
9. redrun
10. stessier - Unagi Scoop
11. Chris Grenard - Lassr
12. Grundbegriff - mipe
13. Kraegor
14. Bakhtosh
15. Austin - mipe
16. Semaj
17. tru1cy - Austin

Vote Totals:
mipe - 6

Player's Votes:

2. Mr Bubbles - mipe
4. theohall - mipe
7. Chaosraven - mipe
8. Unagi - mipe
12. Grundbegriff - mipe
15. Austin - mipe

Vote Totals:
mipe - 6

Grund is dead human.
Mr Bubbles, theohall
Chaosraven, Unagi, Austin

[Chaosraven]

Remus: did you answer - were any roles linked? In other words, if you rolled a sorcerer, is there by default an apprentice wolf? Or is the existance of either power totally random?

I don't think he'll answer this one. That's part of the point of having random roles, us not knowing what's out there, and trying to figure it out. Any 3 evil roles are possible in any combination. Which leads to a comment on the following:

Does anyone else have a problem for a "special" to out themselves now? And pretty cavalierly claim a role? Wouldn't it be a great tactic for a wolf to do...especially if it's a BOOm type of wolf. talk about the confusion sown. And then also, maybe psyche out the real special.....who CR is faking...if he is indeed faking....but yeah i really dont like him doing that this early.

So what happens if all the evil powers are wolf powers only and there is no sorceror or witch? Faking a good/special role, might be an attempt at evening things out with the limitations that 3 evil wolf powers without support would provide.

Interesting.

Was theohall slipping that there are 3 powered wolves?
Once again I find Newcastle in the mix...

But the Bakh dialogue intrigues me.
If this game was designed to be "deceive Chaosraven" I would attribute it to "staged for Chaosravens benefit" yet it is the same thing that moved Purge and Unagi down my list.
Unagi is not proven, but Purge was human.

[Chaosraven]

Semaj, I sprinkled Scooby Snacks around your hut, maybe it'll draw them away from mine.

I found this around page 4-5ish; am wondering if this could potentially be the reason lassr was killed; perhaps the wolves thought lassr was hinting at a role here, and thought it best to take him out.

That very well might be, but I took it as a joke and doubt that post was pointing to a specific role.

Hmmm. Mr B directing *away* from Lassr with a Role.

Who knows what roles the wolves have, but with a couple zerkers or rabids and our cushion could be cut short so we need to make sure everyone is playing.

Mr Bubbles in favor of eliminating quiet players...
after Semaj makes a list (but then votes for Bubbles)
theohall votes for ChrisGrenard
stessier then asks a loaded question (as he claimed to have scanned theohall first night -

Silents (as far as I can tell from a quick glance):
Tru1cy (2 posts, to vote for austin, because it took him two votes to accuse porperly... pretty standard M.O.... )
Chris Gernard (posted once to vote for Lassr, really?)
Newcastle : One comment about commenting today/tomorrow/eventually
Scoop: Silent recently, as in for the day

 Accuse ChrisGrenard 
 

Why Chris and not any of the other 3?

The other three in question are tru1cy, Newcastle, and Scoop.
And yes, the slip about CG needing to be SHOT turns out very interesting later when theohall goes BOOM.

----------------------

I think the ones willing to lynch Kraegor day one (when only the 4 wolves know who she is) is worth examining.

Scoop
Unagi (almost?)

though Scoop did go pretty nuts about his campaign against Kraegor...

Bakhtosh

and then Semaj says:

You do understand if Kraegor is a special, making him out himself is a horrible move....

If he is/does, is your neck up next scoop?

Matter of fact his list on pg12 is kind of weird

It has ChrisGrenard, Austin, theohall, and Mr Bubbles as "leaning wolfie", but "9. tru1cy - Normal Tru1cy to me."
When he lists his 3:

If I had to name 3, my wolf-o-meter be damned....
Chris Gernard
Steisser
*Austin - Gets a star because there are 2 other people I'd consider his level of wolfishness... Theohall and Tru1cy mainly...

hmmm.

Be back later to continue from Pg13

[Bakhtosh]

If Kraegor lives, he needs to be checked before it's too late unless he can prove he's still powered by visiting multiple people. I'll say more if I live through the night, but to say why now would give too much away.

[Chaosraven]

If Kraegor lives, he needs to be checked before it's too late unless he can prove he's still powered by visiting multiple people. I'll say more if I live through the night, but to say why now would give too much away.

Someone has died each evening, therefore the Whore is still unconverted.

[Chaosraven]

Hmmm.

And how would we "check" Kraegor?

[Unagi]

I once again agree with Unagi.

annoying

[Chaosraven]

Continuing with the Vote for Kraegor day one:

Unagi

Semaj

Semaj withdraws his vote

Unagi withdraws his vote

Unagi puts his vote back on

Unagi withdraws it again

Kraegor notes:
mipe is pushed within tolerance levels of a wagon and then it falls apart.

2. Mr Bubbles - mipe
4. theohall - mipe
7. Chaosraven - mipe
8. Unagi - mipe
12. Grundbegriff - mipe
15. Austin - mipe

------------------
if there's a wolf I only think there's at most 2 in the pile. the others hung back and when the wagon wavered, they stayed out of it.

Grund was human
I am Special06

What do you think, Kraegor, Unagi and Austin non-wolf?

[Chaosraven]

Made Lists:
Semaj
tru1cy
redrun

--------------

Against ChrisGrenard(6): mipe, stessier, theohall, Semaj, Kraegor, Unagi
Against ChrisGrenard(7): mipe, stessier, theohall, Semaj, Kraegor, Unagi, Scoop20906
Austin joins, and Unagi withdraws
Bubbles puts his on.

side note: what is with all the Nice Guy disclaimers Unagi has thrown around?

ChrisG stalls at 7...

Against Kraegor(1): Bakhtosh
Against mipe(1): Grundbegriff
Against Austin(1): tru1cy
Against stessier(3): redrun, Unagi, purge
Against purge(1): Newcastle
No Votes Registered: Semaj, Chaosraven, ChrisGrenard

--------------------

tru1cy appears and votes ChrisG
Purge drops the Hammer.

Post-mortem (ChrisG revealed Human):

nice job everyone.


mipe, stessier, theohall, Kraegor, Scoop20906, Austin, Mr Bubbles, tru1cy, purge


Anyone have any advice for mipe? He may need some.

My thought is that he should protect Kraegor, not himself. (there is no risk, right?)

Interesting.
Unagi had put the 6th vote on, withdrew when Austin made it 7.
And then campaigned to lynch the Seer
Before that he was part of the Lynch the Whore crew.

So he got out, and then gives a golf clap to the rest.
hmmm.

[Chaosraven]

Morning after Grunds demise:

 Mipe 
 


I'm thinking between Mipe and Kraegor we MIGHT have a wolf

As further explanation, the Wolves know how many powers they have. If they have only 1 powered wolf, wouldn't it be worth a chance to kill mipe to bet there is a Witch out there trying to help them? Alternatively, if they have 3 powered wolves, then they know there is no witch or Sorcerer and will just go for guaranteed kills.

If they have 3 powered wolves, there are no "guaranteed" kills - especially with the Herbalist in the game - unless everyone does exactly what they are saying they will do - like that ever happens.

Interesting that a Powered Wolf made this comment.

 Mipe 
 


I'm thinking between Mipe and Kraegor we MIGHT have a wolf

Ooops my mistake I meant  Stessier 
 
and Kraegor. That's what I get for typing so fast

Which is where Austin had his Vote, immediately after having his vote on tru1cy.
(this may not mean much, as stessier had pretty well called down the village with his campaign on ChrisG)

What if all 3 evil powers are wolf powers? Then all 3 evil powers are already assigned.

Assigning Good and Evil Human players to 1-14 has to be stated that way even if there are no evil human powers to assign.

Yes, the wolves could know if there is no Witch or Sorceror if all 3 evil powers are wolves.

Read the whole thing - not just one part of it.

And again...

Okay so that tells us... well it tells us Grund was human. Big whoop.

actually... he could have been a doggie, and they could have 'prepared for it'...

Weredog - Good, wins with village. Scans as wolf. Will kill one wolf if attacked at night (but dies in the process). The wolves may twice per game submit that they are attacking as though the target is the weredog when determining their night kill. If they are correct he will not be able to kill one of them as they are prepared for him.

Clearly, it really makes no difference at this point... but - he may not have been human - and Austin KNOWS IT!

Fascinating. Grund (who dropped no such hints) could have been Weredog... yet Lassr (who dropped 2) ??

Or did you mention the same thing then, Unagi?

And then Semaj acts like he's me... bringing up all of Grunds posts to examine.

------------------

Against stessier(3): Austin, tru1cy, Newcastle

there's tru1cy and Newcastle

Unagi joins the vote
redrun joins the vote

And stessier reveals Seer at 5 of 8
Looking back, he knew 2 Wolves were NOT on the vote yet (theohall and bubbles)
Those two could make quick and easy 6 and 7 or final 2 if anyone else voted for him.

[Unagi]

If Kraegor lives, he needs to be checked before it's too late unless he can prove he's still powered by visiting multiple people. I'll say more if I live through the night, but to say why now would give too much away.

I will be interested in hearing where you plan to go with this one.

[Unagi]

side note: what is with all the Nice Guy disclaimers Unagi has thrown around?

Scoop accused me of attacking people's character (RL character, not in game) - so, that's just me being a dick.

[Chaosraven]

Not a Weredog:
Yes Unagi, you were FIRST to claim not a Weredog
Chaosraven
Austin
(newcastle withdraws vote, no comment on weredog)
tru1cy (Unagi prods)
Kraegor objects
mipe shows up
(redrun withdraws vote, no comment on weredog)
redrun returns - suggest laggards have fur

left as of pg24
1. Scoop20906
2. Mr Bubbles
3. Purge
4. theohall
5. Newcastle *
6. Mipe *
15. Bakhtosh
17. Semaj

(Unagi prods Bakhtosh)
(scoop checks in, no comment)
(scoop wonders if a Villager would fake weredog today)
(Bubbles checks in and hints stessier is a Wolf)
(Semaj checks in, no comment)
(theohall checks in, no comment)


haven't checked in:
3. Purge
15. Bakhtosh

haven't declared:
1. Scoop20906 *
2. Mr Bubbles *
3. Purge
4. theohall *
5. Newcastle *
6. Mipe *
15. Bakhtosh
17. Semaj *

Bubbles denies
(Bakh checks in, no comment, will talk 'later')

All players except Purge have checked in.
Purge dies human later.

Leaving us 6 (5 undeclared after Bubbles makes his denial)
1. Scoop20906 *
2. Mr Bubbles - sez Not Dog
4. theohall *
5. Newcastle *
15. Bakhtosh - claims Dog
17. Semaj *

theohall denies
Semaj denies
(Bubbles, theohall, Semaj within 1 hour)

(scoop still discussing weredog and faking and multiple etc)

Newcastle denies

Players:
1. Scoop20906
3. Purge
6. Mipe
15. Bakhtosh!

Worth noting that Bakhtosh and mipe have both had a chance to claim or not claim and opted to do it later.

Additionally worth noting that Scoop has been arguing and discussing for HOURS and has also had the chance...
Which Unagi immediately points out and Scoop confirms

And then theohall blinks...

Fascinating.

This game is a lot easier than I expected.

Sooooo, Mr. Bakhtosh...waiting for a special invitation? You have it.

Please give us your claim re: your status as Weredog.

Are you claiming Bakhtosh is a wolf??? I seriously suspect Stessier as faking the Seer claim with that lame argument of waiting for the last guy to push his "weredog" status.

Why wait for every single player to claim he's "not a weredog" ???? Why not out them sooner unless a) stessier is a drama queen and is the Seer, b) he's faking the Seer claim, or c) the "scanned' bad guy is Bakhtosh. What are the odds of "C" actually being true???? A) or B) 50-50 since it does seem like stessier likes drama.

 stessier 
 
Because I think he's faking the Seer claim.

Unagi notes:
The only thing troubling me is, we have Bakhtosh, Scoop, Purge, Mipe, and Kreagor all protesting this 'weredog' call out. That's too many 'wolves'.

As Purge died human, Mipe died human, Kraegor is Good Special069, and Bakh claims weredog, obviously it's not an issue of "WOLVES" protesting. It's a matter of Player perspective.

Bakh takes 4 minutes to get caught up and claims Weredog.
Hmmm.

------------------

Special 1 - Seer - stessier
Special 2 - Weredog - Bakhtosh
Special 3 - ??? - mipe
Special 4 - Whore - ???
Special 5 - ??? - ???
Special 6 - ??? - Chaosraven

This was stessiers post.

Filling in with:

Special 1 - Seer - stessier - Deceased
Special 2 - Weredog - Bakhtosh
Special 3 - herbalist - mipe - Deceased
Special 4 - Whore - Kraegor
Special 5 - ??? - ???
Special 6 - ??? - Chaosraven

If we have 2 Specials step forward, we know we have another Wolf between either Bakh or myself or the ones tepping forward.

[Chaosraven]

side note: what is with all the Nice Guy disclaimers Unagi has thrown around?

Scoop accused me of attacking people's character (RL character, not in game) - so, that's just me being a dick.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

OMG I <3 Unagi

[Unagi]

Interesting.
Unagi had put the 6th vote on, withdrew when Austin made it 7.
And then campaigned to lynch the Seer
Before that he was part of the Lynch the Whore crew.

So he got out, and then gives a golf clap to the rest.
hmmm.

I withdrew when ChrisG made his post about his lack of interest in the game. I was basically 95% sure he was truly a bored 'villager' and I didn't want to lynch a villager (as I said).

stessier's "clean hands" approach to Day 1 caught my eye and I thought I had a wolf.

Kraegor I kept spinning in my head back and forth between 'special' and 'wolf', and I was growing to worry it may have been 'special'.

Also, I really did think that Scoop might have been a Seer trying to get us to kill Kraegor without coming out and saying he had scanned him. When Scoop finally said something about the eventual outcome of a ChrisGrenard Lynch that could make him re-think Kraegor, that told me there was No Chance in Scoop=Seer, and that the whole thing may have been a big mess - and hence I didn't feel like going back and putting heat on Kraegor that day.

[Chaosraven]

Three dead so far from 14, so roughly 1/5th random chance of seer killed.
Would require apprentice wolf to have found sorcerer to know seer dead.

Actually a single Master would have known if either Lassr or Grund was.
And any wolves in his group would as well.

Is this staged ignorance, feigned misunderstanding, or is redrun not a Wolf?

Move him lower on my list for now.

And yes, Unagi, genuine confusion on the part of a Player regarding rules or roles generally serves its purpose to make one look less like a Bad Guy to me. Just as slips make one look MORE like one.
It's why I hate edits.