Octopus Overlords

https://twitter.com/jonathanchait/statu ... zI58MtAAAA

FWIW I think this is a decent column on the Biden shift. Basically arguing that there are reasons why Biden was in relatively lockstep with progressives to this point that no longer hold in significant ways. Also argues that Zients appointment is more an effect of that rather than a cause.

That Chait piece is interesting because what I see is a bit of a microcosm of all that's wrong with the Democratic party. Their inability to craft strategy in our current political environment has been an utter disaster for our democracy. The through lines in this story are behind the calculations that have allowed a radical GOP to constantly undermine and pressure our democracy.

For example, it is clear the Democrats have a massive problem with strategy and communications with different parts of their coalition. That's natural because the coalition is so large and unwieldly. Yet people like Chait want to apply old, unadjusted political frameworks to evaluate the how and why of it. That leads to poor diagnosis IMO. It is like every serious person is overcommitted to analyzing American politics like it's still driven by outdated left/right narratives. It's a huge mistake.

But back to the piece for a moment before I make a broader point, Chait has slowly been turning into a cranky centrist scold. He wants to write about progressives but doesn't care to get inside what actually drives the relationship. He is just rolling his eyes at them as we see in the first paragraph where he calls them children. Much like the administration is doing.

One of the most historically unusual aspects of the Biden administration has been the harmonious relations between the president and progressive activists. Historically, progressives generally spend most of their time complaining about Democratic presidents, both because they are temperamentally prone to negativity and because they believe in the tactical value of holding presidents’ feet to the fire. President Biden has enjoyed unusually warm support from the left. But that may be coming to an end.

He keeps this up throughout practically sneering at them. His bias and lack of awareness that the bias even exists is a problem. And from there he assumes that Zients is chosen because of a necessary move to the center...blah blah. Meanwhile Biden becomes ever more unpopular. He is losing his base of support and enthusiasm and he is playing into Trump's hands. But that is the Democrat way. Utter incompetence.

Unfortunately I think ultimately the Democrats are predictably heading in the wrong direction. They might accidentally still win but they won't learn. What I believe we need is to drop all this centrist/progressive internecine bullshit and figure out a set of policies that appeals to actual Americans broadly that doesn't require Biden to look like he is feeding dollars to donors or performing for culture warriors. Something new and different. But Biden is old. He is surrounded by the usual suspects while the right keeps innovating towards authoritarianism.

It's frustrating to watch because it's pretty obvious that Biden wasn't the person for this time. Unfortunately he is all we had because Obama, himself, Clinton, et. al. and all the strategy "geniuses" at the top of the Democratic party built a machine that largely catered to a different spectrum of the wealthy elite than the GOP. They all left so many behind. And the right was able to explain that to them while also hiding they were just enriching different wealthy elites. Now we find ourselves with a Biden with a sub-40% approval facing an economic meltdown behind which we face real darkness. Again with the same people making the same mistakes. The situation is beyond grim.

I referenced this in the Santos thread but this Biden crime family bullshit feels like the big swing to finally get a Biden impeachment effort going before end of year. Let's seeeeeee!

Note - It's probably worth spending the minute watching this. It's all bullshit and nonsense through and through but this is their big Biden play at the moment. It's all basically repackaged allegations reflecting the Ukraine business and other Hunter Biden business affairs.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1656388394887397383

The problem for the Democrats at this moment (IMHO, of course) is that the Progressive movement, which hates every President for "not being progressive enough" and swears the Dems would do better if they just went even farther to the Left, continuously complains about their policies not being embraced by the Oval Office. On the other hand, the GOP mindlessly praises their Presidents no matter what policies they enact. The result is that Democratic presidents, being attacked by both sides, always look embattled, which makes Dems, who still trust media messaging, see them as "weak". On the other hand, heavy criticism of GOP presidents just convinces their base that they've got the right guy because he's pissing off the media, liberals, the deep state, etc. and they cling even tighter to their Leader and become more and more convinced that they have the right guy. Usually losing elections changes this since the right can't stand "losers" but since Trump made it look like the Dems cheated to beat him he has escaped that label.

Personally, as a former Liberal who saw Liberals, Progressives, etc. move from just to my right to so far left I can't even see them anymore in the last decade, I think we're all doomed and need to prepare for a more Conservative and Authoritarian US. Every attempt to try to bring the white working class (once the backbone of the party) back into the fold so that we could win sizable majorities and enact real policy change is met without outright hostility by progressive activists who would rather be the majority in a minority party than the other way around. And I see no sign of that changing anytime soon.

Apollo wrote: Wed May 10, 2023 5:50 pm
Personally, as a former Liberal who saw Liberals, Progressives, etc. move from just to my right to so far left I can't even see them anymore in the last decade, I think we're all doomed and need to prepare for a more Conservative and Authoritarian US. Every attempt to try to bring the white working class (once the backbone of the party) back into the fold so that we could win sizable majorities and enact real policy change is met without outright hostility by progressive activists who would rather be the majority in a minority party than the other way around. And I see no sign of that changing anytime soon.

In what way? Democrats are generally labelled center left by most political scientists, and the general consensus is that the Republicans have shifted far more to the right. The only area where things have changed is the left's acceptance of LGBTQ people, which I think is entirely laudable.

malchior wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 12:32 pm
It's frustrating to watch because it's pretty obvious that Biden wasn't the person for this time. Unfortunately he is all we had because Obama, himself, Clinton, et. al. and all the strategy "geniuses" at the top of the Democratic party built a machine that largely catered to a different spectrum of the wealthy elite than the GOP. They all left so many behind. And the right was able to explain that to them while also hiding they were just enriching different wealthy elites. Now we find ourselves with a Biden with a sub-40% approval facing an economic meltdown behind which we face real darkness. Again with the same people making the same mistakes. The situation is beyond grim.

More people need to vote for third party candidates. That will be what saves American democracy.

malchior wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 12:32 pm
It's frustrating to watch because it's pretty obvious that Biden wasn't the person for this time. Unfortunately he is all we had because Obama, himself, Clinton, et. al. and all the strategy "geniuses" at the top of the Democratic party built a machine that largely catered to a different spectrum of the wealthy elite than the GOP. They all left so many behind. And the right was able to explain that to them while also hiding they were just enriching different wealthy elites. Now we find ourselves with a Biden with a sub-40% approval facing an economic meltdown behind which we face real darkness. Again with the same people making the same mistakes. The situation is beyond grim.

More people need to vote for third party candidates. That will be what saves American democracy.

Voting third party will result in Republican control.

The Democrats are several parties in one, which is why they aren’t coordinated and criticize each other. If you don’t like a progressive, vote for the moderate Democrat in the primary. If enough people agreed with your choice, your candidate will win the primary and have a shot at winning the election.

The Democrats are several three small parties in one a trench coat.

Fixed it for you.

Zarathud wrote: Sun May 14, 2023 10:17 am Voting third party will result in Republican control.

The Democrats are several parties in one, which is why they aren’t coordinated and criticize each other. If you don’t like a progressive, vote for the moderate Democrat in the primary. If enough people agreed with your choice, your candidate will win the primary and have a shot at winning the election.

This is where I am. My vote is only as real as it can be during the primary. I am more or less at peace with this.

Zarathud wrote: Sun May 14, 2023 10:17 am Voting third party will result in Republican control.

The Democrats are several parties in one, which is why they aren’t coordinated and criticize each other. If you don’t like a progressive, vote for the moderate Democrat in the primary. If enough people agreed with your choice, your candidate will win the primary and have a shot at winning the election.

Yeah, third parties are just spoilers in a winner-take-all system. President Gore would've addressed global warming 20 years ago had Nader not cost him Florida, for one prominent example, and we would've avoided that Iraq disaster.

If the House had expanded to keep pace with population growth, we might have a de facto parliamentary system there. There would be around 700 representatives today, which opens up some room for third party seats. The US population was only 82 million when the House was frozen at 435.

Kraken wrote: Sun May 14, 2023 11:42 am

Zarathud wrote: Sun May 14, 2023 10:17 am Voting third party will result in Republican control.

The Democrats are several parties in one, which is why they aren’t coordinated and criticize each other. If you don’t like a progressive, vote for the moderate Democrat in the primary. If enough people agreed with your choice, your candidate will win the primary and have a shot at winning the election.

Yeah, third parties are just spoilers in a winner-take-all system. President Gore would've addressed global warming 20 years ago had Nader not cost him Florida, for one prominent example, and we would've avoided that Iraq disaster.

If the House had expanded to keep pace with population growth, we might have a de facto parliamentary system there. There would be around 700 representatives today, which opens up some room for third party seats. The US population was only 82 million when the House was frozen at 435.

The Simpsons has an answer to everything.

waitingtoconnect wrote:

malchior wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 12:32 pm
It's frustrating to watch because it's pretty obvious that Biden wasn't the person for this time. Unfortunately he is all we had because Obama, himself, Clinton, et. al. and all the strategy "geniuses" at the top of the Democratic party built a machine that largely catered to a different spectrum of the wealthy elite than the GOP. They all left so many behind. And the right was able to explain that to them while also hiding they were just enriching different wealthy elites. Now we find ourselves with a Biden with a sub-40% approval facing an economic meltdown behind which we face real darkness. Again with the same people making the same mistakes. The situation is beyond grim.

More people need to vote for third party candidates. That will be what saves American democracy.

Bannon is the one trying to push RFK Jr. And it's GOP/Coal money pushing Manchin.

In other words, it's the Republicans and their donors pushing them - it's not even democratic voters. So, no.



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OMG, he fell again. Obviously we should probably all agree that Trump is a better candidate.

Unagi wrote: Thu Jun 01, 2023 7:37 pm OMG, he fell again. Obviously we should probably all agree that Trump is a better candidate.

Trump's response was as close to empathy as I've seen him get.

Wonder how it would go over if Biden started using a walker.

Alefroth wrote: Thu Jun 01, 2023 8:04 pm

Unagi wrote: Thu Jun 01, 2023 7:37 pm OMG, he fell again. Obviously we should probably all agree that Trump is a better candidate.

Trump's response was as close to empathy as I've seen him get.

Totally, it was honestly the first moment I've ever seen him consider taking a truly empathetic reply.... of course - always framed in the "Am I not truly the best" way that he cannot escape.

Does Biden still take regular bike rides, or is that a PR screen?

Credit where credit is due:

“We’re thankful that the Biden administration played the long game on sick days and stuck with us for months after Congress imposed our updated national agreement,” Russo said. “Without making a big show of it, Joe Biden and members of his administration in the Transportation and Labor departments have been working continuously to get guaranteed paid sick days for all railroad workers.

“We know that many of our members weren’t happy with our original agreement,” Russo said, “but through it all, we had faith that our friends in the White House and Congress would keep up the pressure on our railroad employers to get us the sick day benefits we deserve. Until we negotiated these new individual agreements with these carriers, an IBEW member who called out sick was not compensated.”

While President Joe Biden was calling on Congress in November to pass legislation to implement the agreement, he stressed that he would continue to encourage the railroads to guarantee paid sick time for their employees.

“I share workers’ concern about the inability to take leave to recover from illness or care for a sick family member,” Biden said. “I have pressed legislation and proposals to advance the cause of paid leave in my two years in office and will continue to do so.”

That pressure, plus the IBEW’s ongoing efforts, is paying off at last. The IBEW and BNSF Railway reached an agreement April 20 to grant members four short-notice, paid sick days, with the ability to also convert up to three personal days to sick days. The union reached similar understandings with CSX and Union Pacific on March 22, and with Norfolk Southern on March 10. Unused sick time at the end of a year can be paid out or rolled into a worker’s 401(k) retirement account.

I was looking at the feud between Bobert and Magic the Gathering over competing impeachment articles against Biden. The high crimes and misdemeanors? Failure to follow immigration laws. I think it was Beau who brought up an interesting point: Repugnicans in vulnerable districts do not want to be forced to vote on this issue. If they vote NO they lose MAGA votes, if they vote YES they lose swing votes. It appears McCarthy understands this and is attempting to bury it in committee.

Jaymann wrote: Fri Jun 23, 2023 12:22 pm I was looking at the feud between Bobert and Magic the Gathering over competing impeachment articles against Biden. The high crimes and misdemeanors? Failure to follow immigration laws. I think it was Beau who brought up an interesting point: Repugnicans in vulnerable districts do not want to be forced to vote on this issue. If they vote NO they lose MAGA votes, if they vote YES they lose swing votes. It appears McCarthy understands this and is attempting to bury it in committee.

MTG was pissed because her impeachment bill could be safely consigned to committee, whereas Boebert's copy of it was introduced in a manner that compels a floor vote. MTG was playing McCarthy's ballgame and Boebert did not: hence, the "little bitch."

malchior wrote: Wed May 10, 2023 5:14 pm I referenced this in the Santos thread but this Biden crime family bullshit feels like the big swing to finally get a Biden impeachment effort going before end of year. Let's seeeeeee!

That didn't take long. I've long suspected a Biden impeachment was unavoidable due to the bottomless need for vengeance from Republicans but also the price McCarthy had to pay for power.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Monday told FOX News host Sean Hannity that the investigations into the Biden family business dealings are "rising to the level of an impeachment inquiry." McCarthy asked why Biden took money from countries with "real challenges" and not friendly countries like France or the U.K.

HOUSE SPEAKER KEVIN MCCARTHY: When President Biden was running for office, he told the American public that he has never talked about business. He said his family has never received a dollar from China, which we now prove is not true. We now have some of the most credible whistleblowers, these tenured IRS agents who have come forward, said that the Biden family has been treated differently, that what Weiss has told us has been different than what Garland and Weiss has told the public. And you're sitting here where now you have found millions of foreign money, just what the 1023 alleges they did to Biden's family, now we found that it has funneled through shell companies.

If you're sitting in our position today, we would know none of this if Republicans had not taken the majority. We only followed where the information has taken us. But this is rising to the level of impeachment inquiry which provides Congress the strongest power to get the rest of the knowledge and information needed. Because this president has also used something we have not seen since Richard Nixon. He used the weaponization of government to benefit his family and deny Congress the ability to have the oversight.

HANNITY: If we are talking about millions of dollars coming from the top geopolitical foes and that the Biden family has been corrupted and took in all of this money and he was complicit in that, wouldn't that mean that we have a criminal enterprise as president of the United States, that had to be on every level compromised by countries that are not particularly fond of us?

MCCARTHY: Well it's interesting that the Biden family runs they say a company but never had an office and shell companies to be able to pay through, but if they ran it for foreign countries, why didn't you get money from France, from Germany, from U.K.? Why does it have to be from China, Romania, countries that have real challenges and have problems? I believe we will follow this all the way to the end and this is going to rise from an impeachment inquiry, that way that the constitution tells us to do this and we have to get the answers to these questions.

There's about a zero chance we go into the election with him not being impeached. It's an all out war and only one side is using guns.

They want to impeach him three times so that they can say he got impeached more than trump.

It’s becoming like Brazil where they just impeach and send former presidents to jail for political reasons.

And so what do they say about the former President? The guy who swore he'd open his books and the protected them the entire time he was in office. And oh, McConnell?

So please, show us this millions in foreign money.

Because this president has also used something we have not seen since Richard Nixon. He used the weaponization of government to benefit his family and deny Congress the ability to have the oversight.

Wait? Serious? How do you look yourself in the mirror? How can you say that without busting out laughing?

Well it's interesting that the Biden family runs they say a company but never had an office and shell companies to be able to pay through, but if they ran it for foreign countries, why didn't you get money from France, from Germany, from U.K.? Why does it have to be from China, Romania, countries that have real challenges and have problems?

He's got to be joking. Right? Can't be serious. Where's the Mal or Castle mouth agape gif.

Biden can be impeached for many many things. Many of which you can just make up.

1. He has touched women and children inappropriately in full view of the universe.
2. He can’t control his dog at all. 10 people have been bitten.
3. He knowingly stole the 2020 election.
4. According to roger stone he has a portal to hell in the Oval Office.
5. He has weaponised the justice department against the glorious incorruptible Donald Trump
6. Afghanistan
7. Syria
8. Hunter Biden
9. His 4 year old grandchild
10. His stair climbing technique.
11. Not supporting Ukraine enough.
12. Not supporting Russia in its attempts to denazify Ukraine.
13. Immigration
14. Taxes
15. Obamacare
16. The Texas power grid
17. Too much gun violence
18. Not enough gun rights
19. The Florida school system
20. Trans people using public bathrooms
21. He is catholic.

Biden implements sweeping changes to how the military handles sexual assault cases

President Biden signed an executive order Friday implementing sweeping changes to the military justice system's handling of sexual assault cases. The reforms, which won bipartisan approval in Congress, remove serious criminal cases from victims' chain of command and instead place the cases under the authority of trained prosecutors.
...
The reform effort was led by Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., who has long pushed for changes in how the U.S. military handles sexual assault cases as well as other serious crimes, including domestic violence, child abuse and murder.

It had been up to commanding officers to decide whether to prosecute such cases. But military prosecutors will now make those decisions, rather than commanders.

I don't think they'll go as far as an impeachment vote. The House is too closely divided, and the lack of evidence will make the process ridiculous. GOP representatives in purple/swing districts won't risk going along with an obvious farce.

What the House leadership *will* do is declare an "impeachment inquiry," which will enable all kinds of Benghaziness to generate exaggerative TV footage without any committing to any definite legal effect.

Also if an impeachment vote goes 100% party line, it will put Senate Repugnicans in an awkward spot if they are forced to vote on BS charges. It has no chance of approval, but If they vote no they could face MAGA backlash. If they vote yes they will weaken their standing with independents. Unlike the House numbskulls, they have to run in statewide elections. Methinks Zombie McConnell will put the kibosh on it.

Holman wrote: Sun Jul 30, 2023 7:40 pm I don't think they'll go as far as an impeachment vote. The House is too closely divided, and the lack of evidence will make the process ridiculous. GOP representatives in purple/swing districts won't risk going along with an obvious farce.

What the House leadership *will* do is declare an "impeachment inquiry," which will enable all kinds of Benghaziness to generate exaggerative TV footage without any committing to any definite legal effect.

But undermining the constitution and our democratic system is so much fun… Moooom!!

He’s history’s greatest monster!

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1579647337982734336

Let us never forget the gentleness of his predecessor. The Trump.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... -list.html

I hope that audio makes drumpf's children despair.

Who'd have it on your bingo card that we'd find out Biden and Jake Sullivan apparently are running a war response and don't talk to the Secretary of Defense. How do we know? Biden or Sullivan apparently didn't know he's been hospitalized at Walter Reed all week. I'm seeing that Austin is falling on the sword and taking the blame for not communicating but it makes Biden and the administration look...dysfunctional and potentially incompetent. Keeping in mind SecDef is in the nuclear chain of command and we were executing combat operations.

Edit: I'm reading the story is that his deputy was ready to step in but she's on vacation! I'm assuming like many of us always in contact but there is a vital national security role involved here. Jeez. This is bad. Really bad. Austin is likely going to be fired and we're going to be hearing the Republicans screaming about this for weeks.

https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status ... 9539902951

I wonder how necessary he is if nobody missed him for five days. Perhaps he should be made redundant (as the Brits call layoffs).

You have to wonder who is actually running things if nobody told Biden his defence secretary was down. I'm sure the alt-right can say Hunter is.

The uselessness of this administration is a threat to democracy. Biden needs to stand down and let someone competent run. The only reason I won't vote Republican is because of Trump.

The US isn’t running the war. We’re coordinating with allies.

There was an update tonight that sounds like an attempt to explain but ultimately invites more scrutiny in the Austin hospitalization affair. Tonight we hear that the administration wasn't notified that Austin was in the hospital because his Chief of Staff...was also out sick. That COS has an aide. Austin has an entire support team. I don't know if this explanation was a slip up with the truth or just a miscalculation of a story. It probably didn't help at all.

waitingtoconnect wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 6:39 pm The only reason I won't vote Republican is because of Trump.

There are countless reasons daily across the country why I will not vote Republican. It's not like Trump is the only insane one.

Inflation fallen to pre-pandemic levels? That is not what CNBC tells me every weekday and not what my I Bonds are paying on. It does have many opiners telling me to expect 3-5 rate drops in 2024 which will be anticipatory of inflation nearing pre-pandemic levels and Powell giving an outlook that seems to support them.

First thing I could find but it only goes to November and I know they just had another report but I can't find it anywhere

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/14/heres-t ... chart.html

Why do I doubt unemployment accounts for job participation rates?

As much as I am surprised at how much I like Biden, he does get in his own way quite a bit with regard to framing the narrative. I don't know how much of that is him trying to stem a media hell bent on giving of doom and gloom under his presidency every day either because it sells clicks or because they want him to fail. I'm honestly not sure which. Historically, I'd say it's the former and the later is paranoia but I'm not so much in that camp nowadays.

How hard is it to be honest about the now, with a good prognosis about where we're headed and why? Inflation is a lagging indicator and it's doing well and trending in the right direction in no small part because of government intervention at the federal level led by current presidency and the trends are not causing sharp rises in unemployment. How hard is that?