Octopus Overlords

The federal government’s annual budget deficit is set to widen significantly in the next few years, and is expected to top $1 trillion in 2020 despite healthy economic growth, according to new projections from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office released Monday.

Skinypupy wrote: Mon Apr 09, 2018 8:28 pm Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the part of fiscal responsibility

The federal government’s annual budget deficit is set to widen significantly in the next few years, and is expected to top $1 trillion in 2020 despite healthy economic growth, according to new projections from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office released Monday.

Enjoy that extra $1.50/paycheck everyone!

The good stuff comes on page 88 of the report, under the benign-sounding “Alternative Assumptions about Fiscal Policy” section. This is where CBO cuts the crap—the crap in this case being current-law projections. To reach all of the figures I listed above, CBO followed the letter of the law. That means it assumed that all of the individual cuts from last year’s tax bill set to expire after 2025 actually will expire, and that when this current two-year budget expires, it won’t be replaced with another budget deal, and discretionary spending will collapse.

Though we can’t know the exact specifications of what it would look like, a deal will likely be struck by 2026 that prevents most of the individual tax cuts from expiring. And once the current spending agreement that lifted spending caps expires, Congress isn’t going to let both defense and non-defense discretionary spending fall by tens of billions of dollars—especially as the current numbers, even after the recent agreement’s boost, are historically low as a share of GDP.

If Congress made permanent most of the individual tax code changes, it would deprive the government of another $650 billion in revenue over the 2018 to 2028 window—nearly all of that taking place in the final three years. If Congress eliminates or indefinitely delays certain health care taxes that it delayed earlier in the year, that would mean another $324 billion in lost revenue. On the spending side, if Congress simply grew its most recent allocations at the rate of inflation through 2028, it would add another $1.7 trillion in spending to CBO’s baseline. All told, and with debt service incorporated, CBO’s alternative assumptions—i.e., its best stab at political reality—would add another $2.6 trillion to its ten-year deficit baseline. (And that includes a generous assumption that emergency spending for disasters, like hurricanes, will revert to its recent historic average after the current, particularly disaster-filled fiscal year ends. Fortunately there are no theories out there suggesting that changing climate patterns could lead to costlier disasters.)

This will all spike during the next recession, too.

Conservative blogger Erik Erickson is reporting that during his trip to Washington, D.C., he met up with an as-of-yet-unnamed Republican congressman, one who has publicly been very supportive of Donald Trump, and during their clandestine walk through the aisles of a grocery store outside of D.C. (they didn’t want to be seen), this Republican congressman absolutely went off on Trump and his disastrous leadership.

"I say a lot of shit on TV defending him, even over this. But honestly, I wish the motherf*cker would just go away. We're going to lose the House, lose the Senate, and lose a bunch of states because of him. All his supporters will blame us for what we have or have not done, but he hasn't led.

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Apr 11, 2018 11:38 am Well, this is depressing if true

It's like Forrest Gump won the presidency, but an evil, really f*cking stupid Forrest Gump. He can't help himself. He's just a f**king idiot who thinks he's winning when people are b*tching about him. He really does see the world as ratings and attention. I hate Forrest Gump.

Sepiche wrote: Wed Apr 11, 2018 1:04 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Apr 11, 2018 11:38 am Well, this is depressing if true

You know having Mike as President would really piss off all the right people, too. They think they hate Trump. Mike is competent...

YellowKing wrote: Wed Apr 11, 2018 3:13 pm I'm not worried about Pence. Yeah, I don't agree with his policies, but they're right-wing evangelical policies that we've lived through before. Pence would follow the rule of law (because if he didn't, Jesus would punish him). He'd respect our institutions and their boundaries. He wouldn't go to war with the media and intelligence community. Long story short, I don't see Pence as an evil mastermind. I think he's just a Bible-thumper who would lean that way politically but otherwise would be pretty boring.

And we need boring.

Put it this way - Pence would know what he's doing, but how is that any different from any other Republican president before Trump? And with Trump's stank on him and hampered by Congress...yeah I'll take Pence all week long and twice on Sundays. (Because Sunday is the Lord's day!)

I'll probably lose too and won't have to put up with that sh*t." He won't lose. His district is very Republican.

What's the problem, though? Well, get ready…

"It's like Forrest Gump won the presidency, but an evil, really f*cking stupid Forrest Gump. He can't help himself. He's just a f**king idiot who thinks he's winning when people are b*tching about him. He really does see the world as ratings and attention. I hate Forrest Gump. I listen to your podcast and heard you hate it too. What an overrated piece of sh*t movie. Can you believe it beat the Shawshank Redemption?"

"I say a lot of shit on TV defending him, even over this. But honestly, I wish the motherf*cker would just go away. We're going to lose the House, lose the Senate, and lose a bunch of states because of him. All his supporters will blame us for what we have or have not done, but he hasn't led. He wakes up in the morning, sh*ts all over Twitter, sh*ts all over us, sh*ts all over his staff, then hits golf balls. F*ck him. Of course, I can't say that in public or I'd get run out of town."

Pyperkub wrote: Wed Apr 11, 2018 3:42 pm Republican Congressman speaking with Erick Erickson (RedState/Never Trumper "Conservative"):

Super Policy Experts who write editorials at the NY Post wrote:“Trump just took a giant step towards actual welfare reform”

It calls for a strengthened work requirement for able-bodied adults, building off the requirement established in the 1996 bipartisan welfare reform that requires able-bodied adults on food stamps to work, train or volunteer for at least 20 hours per week.

Despite evidence that work requirements work — cutting time spent on welfare in half, doubling incomes and moving adults into over 600 diverse industries — the Obama administration approved waivers for those requirements in most states, citing high unemployment and severe job shortages.

Isgrimnur wrote: Wed Apr 11, 2018 4:34 pm

It calls for a strengthened work requirement for able-bodied adults, building off the requirement established in the 1996 bipartisan welfare reform that requires able-bodied adults on food stamps to work, train or volunteer for at least 20 hours per week.

Despite evidence that work requirements work — cutting time spent on welfare in half, doubling incomes and moving adults into over 600 diverse industries — the Obama administration approved waivers for those requirements in most states, citing high unemployment and severe job shortages.

It's almost as if we were in a recession and jobs weren't just hanging from trees.

And I'm sure there won't be any politicization of the determination of "able-bodied".

Daehawk wrote: Wed Apr 11, 2018 4:57 pm

Holman wrote: Thu Apr 12, 2018 8:59 am The RNC has launched a propaganda site to undermine James Comey before the release of his memoir next week: LyinComey

malchior wrote: Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:08 am

Holman wrote: Thu Apr 12, 2018 8:59 am The RNC has launched a propaganda site to undermine James Comey before the release of his memoir next week: LyinComey

The GOP at its "finest".

gilraen wrote: Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:52 am

malchior wrote: Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:08 am

Holman wrote: Thu Apr 12, 2018 8:59 am The RNC has launched a propaganda site to undermine James Comey before the release of his memoir next week: LyinComey

The GOP at its "finest".

Comey's book sales will go through the roof (if they wouldn't already).

Apparently Trumpsters learned nothing from their "Fire and Fury" experience.

malchior wrote: Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:08 am

Holman wrote: Thu Apr 12, 2018 8:59 am The RNC has launched a propaganda site to undermine James Comey before the release of his memoir next week: LyinComey

The GOP at its "finest".

Alefroth wrote: Thu Apr 12, 2018 2:13 pm Risky move putting Democrats' criticism of Comey out there, as the base is programmed to think whatever the opposite is of a liberal's view.

gilraen wrote: Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:52 amComey's book sales will go through the roof (if they wouldn't already).

noxiousdog wrote: Thu Apr 12, 2018 3:14 pm Why the Trump Tax Cuts Are Awesome/Terrible (Part 1)

noxiousdog wrote: Thu Apr 12, 2018 3:14 pm Why the Trump Tax Cuts Are Awesome/Terrible (Part 1)

DUBNER: Between the tax act and the new budget, there’s a lot of spending going on. I’m curious: What happened to the old G.O.P. fiscal conservative reputation?

HASSETT: Well, I think that the president rightly prioritized a couple of major problems in his first year. And if you look at what’s happened to the Defense Department, that you could argue that it’s in a similar, difficult state and requires a lot of spending — if you look at the percentage of airplanes that can’t fly because they don’t have the parts, and so on. And so I think that in the first year it makes sense to prioritize, given that there’s only so much time on the legislative calendar to get things done. But I’ve written extensively over my career on the positive economic effects of fiscal consolidation, and that means that in the end, in the medium- and long-term, that deficits do matter a lot. And to the extent that growth disappoints, then pursuing some kind of long-run consolidation is something that will be inevitable. It’d just be a question of which administration will have to do it.

Defiant wrote: Thu Apr 12, 2018 3:18 pm

noxiousdog wrote: Thu Apr 12, 2018 3:14 pm Why the Trump Tax Cuts Are Awesome/Terrible (Part 1)

Is there a tl/dr version?

hepcat wrote:They learned how to spell collusion.