Octopus Overlords

Posted: **Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:44 pm**

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Nov 01, 2017 10:15 am

AMD is killing me but I've had it since $2 so it's hard to get upset.

I got out of AMD a few months back. i rode it for about a year and made a nice chunk of change. Couple of things that triggered my thinking. 1. The debt load. I thought that was a huge drag on that stock. 2. I did comparisons to their competitors and I thought it would be very difficult for them to break into 20. I felt they would need a lot to go right for them. I know its not a detailed analysis. But I felt good about getting out and am off investing in other aspects.

Also does Bitcoin seem like a bubble to anyone else? I wonder what the heck is backign the valuation of it? I can't see it.

Posted: **Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:51 pm**

I mean, I'd take tulips or Etherium, if they allowed me to retire today as Bitcoin in March would have.

Posted: **Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:54 pm**

Maybe you should buy it now while you still can.

Posted: **Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:51 pm**

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:51 pm I mean, I'd take tulips or Etherium, if they allowed me to retire today as Bitcoin in March would have.

A friend's husband used to mine bitcoin. I'll have to ask if they still have any.

Edit: I asked. They have the equivalent of 22 full bitcoins in either actual bitcoin or bitcoin cash that resulted from his past mining activities. They're more or less of the opinion that they're going to just sit on them, either to the point where they can pay off their mortgage in a lump sum, or until they go sky high. They figure if the bitcoin value crashes, they didn't actually pay anything to get them, so they're not really out anything.

Posted: **Thu Nov 30, 2017 3:45 pm**

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:31 pm So, how come none of you told me to buy Bitcoins back in March?

Mostly because it is a market which is susceptible to a lot of different unpredictable and unknown market forces.

How much fraud is there?
How will china change policy to impact bitcoins?
How will the IRS move on bitcoins?
How do you know what the true value is?
etc.

All of the above have had dramatic impacts on the bitcoin markets in the past. IMHO, it may well become the new gold as financial hedge against inflation/financial crashes, etc. (if it hasn't already) but there is a ton of risk associated with it in my mind currently. I'm far more likely to look at one of the bitcoin index funds to limit that risk.

Posted: **Thu Nov 30, 2017 5:14 pm**

Pyperkub wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 3:45 pm
Zaxxon wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:31 pm So, how come none of you told me to buy Bitcoins back in March?
Mostly because it is a market which is susceptible to a lot of different unpredictable and unknown market forces.

How much fraud is there?
How will china change policy to impact bitcoins?
How will the IRS move on bitcoins?
How do you know what the true value is?
etc.

All of the above have had dramatic impacts on the bitcoin markets in the past. IMHO, it may well become the new gold as financial hedge against inflation/financial crashes, etc. (if it hasn't already) but there is a ton of risk associated with it in my mind currently. I'm far more likely to look at one of the bitcoin index funds to limit that risk.

I was pretty much joking. I wouldn't touch Bitcoin with any significant chunk of my net worth with a 10-foot pole. In retrospect, though, it's quite a story. For example, go back five years--In Dec 2012, a Bitcoin was $13. S&P 500 was $1,300. Today, a Bitcoin is $9,500. The S&P 500 is $2,600. So the S&P has doubled in five years--pretty good! Bitcoin is up 730x. Even a $5k speculative Bitcoin 'investment' at that time would be $3.6M today.

Posted: **Fri Dec 01, 2017 1:49 pm**

The trouble I see with the bitcoin market irrespective of other factors is the apparent lack of liquidity. Is it really a $80B market? Probably not when you are barely seeing even single BTC transactions. Many trades during a day are between 0.005 and 0.01. Those are $50 and $100 trades mostly. You occassionally see a bitcoin or so go by but going by the trade books on Gemini or Coinbase you won't see many big transactions by any measure that indicate a $80B-100B market valuation.

Posted: **Sat Dec 02, 2017 10:52 pm**

malchior wrote: Fri Dec 01, 2017 1:49 pm The trouble I see with the bitcoin market irrespective of other factors is the apparent lack of liquidity. Is it really a $80B market? Probably not when you are barely seeing even single BTC transactions. Many trades during a day are between 0.005 and 0.01. Those are $50 and $100 trades mostly. You occassionally see a bitcoin or so go by but going by the trade books on Gemini or Coinbase you won't see many big transactions by any measure that indicate a $80B-100B market valuation.

As someone very much on the outside of this Bitcoin thing I was wondering about this. Say I had 10,000 bitcoins, would it even be possible for me to turn that into a hundred million US Dollars at 10K per bitcoin? Or is there no demand?

Posted: **Sun Dec 03, 2017 8:54 am**

Cortilian wrote: Sat Dec 02, 2017 10:52 pm
malchior wrote: Fri Dec 01, 2017 1:49 pm The trouble I see with the bitcoin market irrespective of other factors is the apparent lack of liquidity. Is it really a $80B market? Probably not when you are barely seeing even single BTC transactions. Many trades during a day are between 0.005 and 0.01. Those are $50 and $100 trades mostly. You occassionally see a bitcoin or so go by but going by the trade books on Gemini or Coinbase you won't see many big transactions by any measure that indicate a $80B-100B market valuation.
As someone very much on the outside of this Bitcoin thing I was wondering about this. Say I had 10,000 bitcoins, would it even be possible for me to turn that into a hundred million US Dollars at 10K per bitcoin? Or is there no demand?

IMO you would not be able to in a timely fashion. I could see you doing it over several months potentially. Could you do it any particular day? No chance in hell. That is why I think this is a big bubble - you have a ton of buyers making tiny microtransactions. So of course they are bidding up the price. They are buying fractions of something that they hear is exploding like crazy. People aren't truly understanding what they are buying so I don't think you have any sort of reasonable price discovery happening.

Posted: **Sun Dec 03, 2017 12:20 pm**

Over $5 billion in Bitcoin was traded in the last 24 hours. The problem is you won't find an exchange that would trade that much for you in a week let alone a day. Coinbase limits withdraws to all but heavy traders to $15,000/week.

Posted: **Mon Dec 04, 2017 6:52 pm**

DOS=HIGH wrote: Sun Dec 03, 2017 12:20 pm Over $5 billion in Bitcoin was traded in the last 24 hours. The problem is you won't find an exchange that would trade that much for you in a week let alone a day. Coinbase limits withdraws to all but heavy traders to $15,000/week.

I'd bet a decent portion of that would be into/out of ethereum too. And the limits don't scream liquidity but that could also be a function of anti-money laundering. Either way I strongly suspect that sufficient liquidity is not there.

Posted: **Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:55 am**

So I made it to December and I finally have enough to tuck some more away. I'm likely to put my pennies in to VTI today, so batton down the hatches. We've had a great year because I've had no money. I'm about to ruin the economy...

Posted: **Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:59 am**

LordMortis, stock market cooler?

Posted: **Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:17 am**

Carpet_pissr wrote: Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:59 am LordMortis, stock market cooler?

My gains in my personal account have been over 20% on the year... Which is putting me at about ground zero since 2013/2014 when I firsts started tucking money away... Which is precisely why I'm limiting my investing to indexes for I don't know how long. Not a single one of my single securities has made money since time of purchase, whereas the indexes have mitigated my downs.

Posted: **Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:36 am**

I butt dial traded at the gym a few weeks ago. Sold half my RAD $1.50 calls at the bid (.10 spread). I didn't want to buy back at the ask. By the following Tuesday RAD was up like 35%. My remaining calls were up like 120%. Still consider that a loss and a learning experience. Never use a live trading app to listen to CNBC in your pocket at the gym. Fuck.

Posted: **Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:24 pm**

By the way, for any of you who are looking for a portfolio tracker home after Google Finance killed their crappy and bug-ridden mess that was in Google Finance, the new Yahoo Finance portfolio function is astounding. They have a one click button to import your Google portfolio as well, which is handy.

Note this is recently updated software, so if you looked at it even a couple months ago and were not impressed (like me), it's been overhauled completely. Also has a specific app.

I used the Medved Quotetracker for probably 15 years prior to the crappy Google Finance portfolio, and had not seen anything better than that, until Yahoo upped their game in a major way.

https://finance.yahoo.com/

Posted: **Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:28 am**

Carpet_pissr wrote: Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:59 am LordMortis, stock market cooler?

So far, not so much. Tax code hopes seem to be running amuck. Which sucks for me and the first of the year. Since joining this thread a couple of years ago, Every January 1st I have enough money put aside to add to my Roth IRA. Things seem a bit out of control right now but I don't like to speculate, so I'll faithfully put that my index money in place, where I have gone from 128 to 138 since September.

Posted: **Thu Jan 04, 2018 3:04 pm**

Apparently not. I got my 2018 contribution in and things are as crazy as they ever were. My finances are generally caught up to where they need to be so after hiatus in 2017 I should be ready to start tucking away some more money this year but I'm ascared. Everything seems to have been on steroids since December. I don't want to "time the market" but unless the implications of the tax reform go a lot further than I think they do, I can't see how these indexes can be sustained (and the indexes are where my money is being put because my understanding of individual securities seems to suck)

What are other peoples reactions?

Posted: **Thu Jan 04, 2018 3:26 pm**

LordMortis wrote: Thu Jan 04, 2018 3:04 pm Apparently not. I got my 2018 contribution in and things are as crazy as they ever were. My finances are generally caught up to where they need to be so after hiatus in 2017 I should be ready to start tucking away some more money this year but I'm ascared. Everything seems to have been on steroids since December. I don't want to "time the market" but unless the implications of the tax reform go a lot further than I think they do, I can't see how these indexes can be sustained (and the indexes are where my money is being put because my understanding of individual securities seems to suck)

What are other peoples reactions?

IMHO, I think the market will stay solidly warm for at least 2018, starting to deteriorate in late 2018/sometime in 2019 as the tax effects start to kick in. All of this is dependent upon 45 not getting us into a war, naturally.

Health care is a sector I'd stay away from until the tax changes and any further medicare/medicaid/ACA changes are known (unless you are a gambling sort, in which case there could be money to be made in what I expect to be a very volatile sector). I tend to be risk-averse.

Another sector I'd be concerned about are streaming services and internet startups. Net Neutrality repeal (if ever finalized and clears any legal hurdles) could make life extremely difficult there (as well as Netflix losing Disney content next year).

As always, take with a grain of salt, as I'm not a professional here, but those are my opinions.

Posted: **Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:42 pm**

I'm moving my dad mostly to cash (like 70% is the goal). He was having problems sleeping worrying about markets so we decided that any potential gains weren't worth the anxiety. Worst case, he misses out on gains. His horizon is short term so no biggie.

"Best" case, he's 70% cash during a crash.

Me, I'm staying in for now. Longer horizon, greater risk tolerance.

Posted: **Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:50 pm**

I'm staying in, too. I have no idea how long this particular bull market will last, but at 37, I can afford to be in it for the long term.

Posted: **Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:53 pm**

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:42 pm I'm moving my dad mostly to cash (like 70% is the goal). He was having problems sleeping worrying about markets so we decided that any potential gains weren't worth the anxiety. Worst case, he misses out on gains. His horizon is short term so no biggie.

"Best" case, he's 70% cash during a crash.

Me, I'm staying in for now. Longer horizon, greater risk tolerance.

/does the math

I'm about 10% cash... Which is pretty cool when I think about it. Everything I put in stays in. I'm just trying to figure out if I should continue to build a cash reserve to ride out whatever is happening now or if I should just ride it out by putting in even more money as it becomes available.

I don't know what my horizon is. I figure no matter what I'm done by 59.5 when I can dip in to my IRAs and 401k without penalty and right that until I'm 62.5 and add social security. The question is how much I can save in addition to that to retire early (And that question is largely determined by they mystery cost of health care, which will not be subsidized by any former employer when I retire.)

Posted: **Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:55 pm**

pr0ner wrote: Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:50 pm I'm staying in, too. I have no idea how long this particular bull market will last, but at 37, I can afford to be in it for the long term.

I'm about 10 years your senior.... and from the sound of it your past, you fiscal planning is about 10 years my senior.

Posted: **Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:07 pm**

LordMortis wrote: Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:55 pm
pr0ner wrote: Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:50 pm I'm staying in, too. I have no idea how long this particular bull market will last, but at 37, I can afford to be in it for the long term.
I'm about 10 years your senior.... and from the sound of it your past, you fiscal planning is about 10 years my senior.

My retirement investment account is currently at 2.5x my annual salary.

Posted: **Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:26 pm**

I'm a little more than 10% cash, which is about 9% higher than I normally am. Will probably sell some more here in the next month or two.

Considering selling DIS (up 23% currently), even though I suspect it will go a bit higher in the coming months. Also not sure at all what to do about my automakers. I have both GM (up 39%) and F (up a whopping 1.7%). Trying to see some kind of cyclical trend to automakers in particular. Cyclicals tend to outperform when the economy is humming along, as it is now.

Posted: **Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:35 pm**

I'm at 20% cash, but that's partially due to being a bit on the conservative side in terms of what I want to have liquid in case of emergencies.

I should probably find something else to invest in.

Posted: **Fri Jan 05, 2018 10:48 am**

My TSP account's year-end performance for 2017 was 21.33%.

I certainly wouldn't mind more years of that.

Posted: **Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:01 am**

pr0ner wrote: I certainly wouldn't mind more years of that.

Doubtful. It’s already been a very long bull run. We’re likely due for at least a correction if not a full on bear in the near(ish) term.

When that begins is anyone’s guess obviously.

Posted: **Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:07 am**

Carpet_pissr wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:01 am
pr0ner wrote: I certainly wouldn't mind more years of that.
Doubtful. It’s already been a very long bull run. We’re likely due for at least a correction if not a full on bear in the near(ish) term.

When that begins is anyone’s guess obviously.

Well, according to Trump, stocks would have lost 50% of their value from election day if Hillary Clinton had won, so we're all just living in Trump's fantasy world anyway. /s

And yes. I know it's doubtful. While I wouldn't mind more bull market, I know there's a correction coming. It's just a matter of when and how big (though Trump doing something genuinely stupid means it could be really big).

Posted: **Fri Jan 05, 2018 1:31 pm**

Carpet_pissr wrote: Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:26 pm I

Considering selling DIS (up 23% currently), even though I suspect it will go a bit higher in the coming months. Also not sure at all what to do about my automakers. I have both GM (up 39%) and F (up a whopping 1.7%). Trying to see some kind of cyclical trend to automakers in particular. Cyclicals tend to outperform when the economy is humming along, as it is now.

My lowest cost DIS share is around $40. My average is probably in the 70s though since I'm always buying. Reliable growth, reliable dividend. Our Disney vacation every year is buying more shares.

I have a lot of F, no GM. Holding F for similar reason as DIS, though less for growth and more for div. I also have some Jan F $12 calls at $0.55 that I'll sell around expiration if they stay ITM.

PS, Potash finally completed their merger and changed their symbol to NTR. POT will be available in a year so I expect much fighting among any marijuana stocks/funds on the big board.

Posted: **Fri Jan 05, 2018 1:58 pm**

I'm waiting for one of those marijuana stocks to add "Blockchain" to their title and reap the profits.

Posted: **Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:56 pm**

26,000

U.S. stocks traded sharply higher as investors chased a market breaking out on better-than-expected earnings and rising economic optimism under President Donald Trump.

The Dow Jones industrial average broke above 26,000 for the first time earlier in the session. At 12:47 p.m. ET, the Dow traded 122 points higher, slightly below the milestone level. The 30-stock index was boosted by gains in UnitedHealth and Merck.

It took the Dow just 12 calendar days, or seven trading days, to move from 25,000 to 26,000, making it the fastest 1,000 move on record for the index. It first traded above 25,000 on Jan. 4.
...
The S&P 500 gained 0.2 percent and briefly traded above 2,800 for the first time. Real estate and health care were the best-performing sectors in the index. The Nasdaq composite advanced 0.2 percent and also hit a record.
...
Earnings season is off to a strong start thus far. Of the S&P 500 companies that had reported as of Friday, 69 percent have surpassed earnings-per-share estimates while 85 percent have beaten expectations on the top line, according to FactSet.

Posted: **Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:58 pm**

pr0ner wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2018 1:58 pm I'm waiting for one of those marijuana stocks to add "Blockchain" to their title and reap the profits.

OO should add blockchain to the forum in order to attract more users.

Posted: **Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:04 am**

I guess F won't be giving that sweet sweet bonus dividend this spring. Oi. Like that, a chunk of my crazy rising portfolio is mashed. Again, reminding me of why I'm glad I've only been putting money in the indexes.

Posted: **Wed Jan 17, 2018 1:58 pm**

LordMortis wrote: Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:04 am I guess F won't be giving that sweet sweet bonus dividend this spring. Oi. Like that, a chunk of my crazy rising portfolio is mashed. Again, reminding me of why I'm glad I've only been putting money in the indexes.

They actually announced an additional supplemental dividend. The drop is on their 2018 forecast.

Posted: **Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:03 pm**

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Jan 17, 2018 1:58 pm
LordMortis wrote: Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:04 am I guess F won't be giving that sweet sweet bonus dividend this spring. Oi. Like that, a chunk of my crazy rising portfolio is mashed. Again, reminding me of why I'm glad I've only been putting money in the indexes.
They actually announced an additional supplemental dividend. The drop is on their 2018 forecast.

Woot?

Posted: **Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:10 pm**

My 401k made more money than I did this year. I believe that is a first for me.

Posted: **Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:13 pm**

coopasonic wrote: Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:10 pm My 401k made more money than I did this year. I believe that is a first for me.

That's pretty impressive.

Posted: **Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:31 pm**

Why do I get the feeling there are going to be a lot of people out a lot of money when this merry-go-round stops. $1.5 trillion in tax breaks over the next ten years does not begin to justify the increases I've seen in the last 12 months. In last week alone, my retirement has gone up over 5% which equates to about 3.5 months of my takehome salary and this above a 30% gain over the previous year.

Right now I feel afraid to put more money, either from my automatically deducted 401k or from my personal account designed to advance my retirement.

And it's not just US markets. I've diversified to world markets. VT total world market year over year $62.50 to $78.85. VYMI High Dividend fund is paying 3.22% and is up from $58 to $71.37 year over year. EuropPacific Growth Fund has gone from $46.21 to $59.04.

In-sanity. Day traders must be having a wet dream come true.

Posted: **Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:52 pm**

coopasonic wrote: Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:10 pm My 401k made more money than I did this year. I believe that is a first for me.

Thanks Trump!

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