Octopus Overlords

I had forgotten that spastic defense theohall had made for Bakhtosh.

He seemed to have almost jumped the gun when he did it.


btw, regarding this:

Chaosraven wrote:Unagi notes:
The only thing troubling me is, we have Bakhtosh, Scoop, Purge, Mipe, and Kreagor all protesting this 'weredog' call out. That's too many 'wolves'.

As Purge died human, Mipe died human, Kraegor is Good Special069, and Bakh claims weredog, obviously it's not an issue of "WOLVES" protesting. It's a matter of Player perspective.

That was what I meant when I said "the only thing troubling me is..."
In other words, it was clearly not just a Wolf's perspective to protest the 'weredog' outing, so that troubled me as I was dreamily hoping we could apply it as a bit of a lupine-test.

Scoop in antsy addict mode:
Thu Nov 20, 2008 2:47 pm
Unavoidable Meta Alert!
I will be on travel from this evening until sometime late on Sunday and will have very limited internet access during that time.
I am going to hate to come back and read pages of posts so please try to be a bit succinct.

Thu Nov 20, 2008 2:56 pm
Stess, lets here the other scan now. No need to wait as saying it now or after a hunter takes his shot won't make much of a difference.
Please post your other scan now. Thank you.

Hmmmm. Concerned he would need an alibi/faux role/ruse/argument?

Baktosh has taken the weredog slot therefore nothing is left.

Kraegor, did theohall claim a role?

Austin wrote:Based on Purge's reaction to call for a lynch over a shot, I almost would rather lynch Mr. Bubbles today. Just makes me think of direction to lynch a zerk. That said I am happy to lynch theohall, but any other thoughts on the Purge push to lynch?

Chaosraven wrote:Semaj, Purge, Unagi

lower on my list than most.

I'd like you to check redrun

Mr Bubbles - Wolf
Newcastle - high on my list
tru1cy/Austin - midrange
Scoop - just behind
((Bakh midrange, but without other Good Specials given special consideration ATM))
Semaj up a little
Unagi, redrun = lower

Kraegor/Chaosraven = Couple of Special Guys

Leaving us 6 (5 undeclared after Bubbles makes his denial)
1. Scoop20906 *
2. Mr Bubbles - sez Not Dog
4. theohall *
5. Newcastle *
15. Bakhtosh - claims Dog
17. Semaj *

Chaosraven wrote:Scoop in antsy addict mode:
Thu Nov 20, 2008 2:47 pm
Unavoidable Meta Alert!
I will be on travel from this evening until sometime late on Sunday and will have very limited internet access during that time.
I am going to hate to come back and read pages of posts so please try to be a bit succinct.

Thu Nov 20, 2008 2:56 pm
Stess, lets here the other scan now. No need to wait as saying it now or after a hunter takes his shot won't make much of a difference.
Please post your other scan now. Thank you.

Hmmmm. Concerned he would need an alibi/faux role/ruse/argument?

I was just super excited to see what his scan was. Stessier loves to build up the drama and I eat it up. I didn't want to spend the next day driving and thinking about it only to get back to a computer and find 10,000 posts to read and try and force myself not to skip ahead and miss something important.

This all good analysis, Chaos. Keep it coming. THANKS.

I'm looking at the players still involved and the time feels right. If I live to tomorrow morning I will announce my role.

In case you couldn't guess, I finally got done with my notes and the thread (up to the evening where stessier got eaten).

I played WAAAAAAAAY too much Descent this weekend (but I earned it, it was my four day weekend finally) and slept most of Sunday away (which is good, because if I had been witnessing the debacle that was my FF team this week I would likely have had a stroke).

Scoop20906 wrote:I'm looking at the players still involved and the time feels right. If I live to tomorrow morning I will announce my role.

So you're finally going to admit you're the eavesdropper?

nope, theohall happily claimed unpowered villager. then just as happily outed his contact with me despite my instructions to follow my lead on that point. I let it slide since it was possible he honestly misunderstood.

So what drawbacks do we have with remaining special(s) coming forward with 2 misses left?

and/or - what are the advantages to waiting until the morning to discuss that.

Unagi wrote:and/or - what are the advantages to waiting until the morning to discuss that.

Sort of depends who they kill tonight.
Depends if they have a Master Wolf.

etc

If nobody comes forward, wolves aren't gonna fake and either Lassr or Grund was one.
Or Bakh is a fake and both Lassr and Grund were.
etc

Plus it also depends what the remaining is/are

binky:

Busy Monday night. I <3 Chaos' lists.

Chaosraven wrote:In case you couldn't guess, I finally got done with my notes and the thread (up to the evening where stessier got eaten).

I played WAAAAAAAAY too much Descent this weekend (but I earned it, it was my four day weekend finally) and slept most of Sunday away (which is good, because if I had been witnessing the debacle that was my FF team this week I would likely have had a stroke).

Chaos, are you playing the campaign or just stand alone dungeons?

standalone.
don't have the expansions.

I played friday night as player in redruns overlord, ran 2 others (revhempus and another gaming buddy) thru 1st and 2nd dungeons saturday night as overlord (to get more practice as overlord and teach them to play)

Where is everyone today?

I'm here.
(I have the week off work)

I'm here, working on a paper. (Was in class last night, stealth checking in but not "typing" because I was in tablet mode) I just don't really want to talk much until morning. (Yes I expect to be around - no it's not due to me being a wolf)

Chaosraven wrote:

redrun wrote: Three dead so far from 14, so roughly 1/5th random chance of seer killed.
Would require apprentice wolf to have found sorcerer to know seer dead.

Actually a single Master would have known if either Lassr or Grund was.
And any wolves in his group would as well.

Chaosraven wrote:standalone.
don't have the expansions.

I played friday night as player in redruns overlord, ran 2 others (revhempus and another gaming buddy) thru 1st and 2nd dungeons saturday night as overlord (to get more practice as overlord and teach them to play)

Where is everyone today?

-- Buried at work, as I have been for the past week. Will have much more
free time in a couple of days. BTW, expansions are here.

How long will this night last?

So far, the only people Kraegor has visited are wolves and Chaos. Kraegor nor Chaos are cleared. We need independant verification of Kraegor's whore-ness at some point, prefferably by him visiting a couple of different people who can verify that he is powered.

What would happen if wolfs converted the night target of the whore?

I am betting the wolves would have converted already if they could. I mean I might be wrong on that, but why risk the wait?

I do agree that it would be nice if Kraegor could visit someone else. My first thought would be that he should just casually visit someone of his choosing without mentioning it in thread. But uh... I guess the wolves would know if Bubbles was not visited. Still even if Kraegor visited someone else and hit a wolf, they still cannot attack him. He would have to guess on an unknown who should be safe from attack at night. (Too risky to visit someone who is proven, not that we really have those right now) That person could confirm Kraegor and at least make the pool of probability larger. If he visited a wolf who denied the visit, Kraegor would instruct us to lynch that one. (Who I suppose could wind up being a sorc)

Bakhtosh wrote:So far, the only people Kraegor has visited are wolves and Chaos. Kraegor nor Chaos are cleared. We need independant verification of Kraegor's whore-ness at some point, prefferably by him visiting a couple of different people who can verify that he is powered.

And what exactly would make you trust these other two people?

Bakhtosh wrote:So far, the only people Kraegor has visited are wolves and Chaos. Kraegor nor Chaos are cleared. We need independant verification of Kraegor's whore-ness at some point, prefferably by him visiting a couple of different people who can verify that he is powered.

What would happen if wolfs converted the night target of the whore?

First, I will be totally shocked if we have a conversion this late in a game with 2 named wolves on the line... But - it could happen, I suppose...

Who exactly would we have Kraegor visit - and if that resulted in a Double Kill, yeeks.

Frankly - there is precious little solid rock to build a foundation on this game.

I've run through senarios where stessier is a Sorcerer that coordinated this whole thing with the wolves, but - stessier then failed to do one critical thing - which would have been to "bless" Kraegor or Chaos to victory. So - I am basically satisfied that stessier was indeed the Seer.

I've run through senarios where Kraegor and Chaos are evil, and both totally fooled the one person we could build any foundation around. I struggle with the fact that I don't see where he came away with the total confidence that Kraegor was the whore. Perhaps it's there and I didn't see it. Chaos - when was it that you shared that with him? You have a post where you said you already answered him, and I didn't follow.... could you help us with that right now?

For me, I generally make a choice at some point if I am going to put a little faith in certain players. I think that stessier did this with Chaos (and perhaps through that - with Kraegor). I am willing to buy into that same faith and put it in the same place.

What are the options? To totally mistrust them and waste our two misses proving that we have a much bigger mess ahead of us than this already messy game presented us with.

You honestly think your claim of weredog, at the time when you made that claim, is something less in the need to be "tested" Bakhtosh?

If Kraegor sleeps with someone other than Mr.Bubbles - how would we agree to who that person should be? Just anyone perhaps, I guess - and that would just add another to "the mix" as it were...

It's not a rotten evil suggestion really, but I don't really feel like "testing" the whore - rather just keep using her to our advantage.

If Kraegor isn't the whore - then Chaos is lying about it. We're in a world of hurt then, aren't we? And the 'weredog' is going to lead us?

That would make Chaos evil - I'm cool with pinning this all on stessier later, if that is the case.

Unagi wrote: Chaos - when was it that you shared that with him? You have a post where you said you already answered him, and I didn't follow.... could you help us with that right now?

I figured if stessier was a wolf, he knew who the whore was already.
If he was the Seer, he should know who it was so he didn't waste his scan.

I left him a code he would recognize.

Let's stop pussy footing around here. I clearly wanted to know about the code.

classified information, I'm guessing. We just need to accept you via stessier's trust?

I just want you to say as much, if that is the case.

There's no reason for any of you to trust me, including the Whore.

Let's see if I can keep this simple.
Bubbles = wolf; that leaves 2 unknowns.

If Chaos & Kraegor are our two other wolves that leaves zero unknowns.
If Kraegor can give us independant verification of his whoreish ways by visiting someone other than Chaos & Bubbles, then that means he must be the whore.

Chaos, did Kraegor, as the whore, visit you at night?

And yes, come morning, assuming I still live, I'll detail why Kraegor jumped up my list.

Kraegor hasn't visited me to date. Just thought I'd let you know.

I think of it as a matter of numbers.

Do I trust Bakh as Weredog?
What choice do I have?

Barring other Specials stepping forth and jacking the numbers high enough to bump Bakh and I out of our "Good Special Slots" I see very little alternative.

Do I believe mipe was Herbalist? Despite his bizarre playstyle, I have to concede the possibility based on the same basic info we all have.

There were 4 Wolves. One is dead, One is revealed by a Dead Seer.
There were 6 Good Specials. Mipe as Herbal, Stessier as Seer, and Kraegor as Whore fill three of those.
There were 3 Evil Roles. Theohall was One. Two remain to be discovered.

I have claimed one Special Slot from the first night.
Bakh revealed Weredog during the Stessier Inquisition.

That still leaves 1 Slot open, and nobody contesting anyone to grab onto it.

ChrisG and Purge maintained Villager.
Lassr and Grund are unknown.

There's exactly one other person I trust here, and that's the Whore. She has no proof to trust me beyond not handing her over to all of you before she revealed herself.

Bakhtosh wrote:Let's see if I can keep this simple.
Bubbles = wolf; that leaves 2 unknowns.

If Chaos & Kraegor are our two other wolves that leaves zero unknowns.
If Kraegor can give us independant verification of his whoreish ways by visiting someone other than Chaos & Bubbles, then that means he must be the whore.

Chaos, did Kraegor, as the whore, visit you at night?

And yes, come morning, assuming I still live, I'll detail why Kraegor jumped up my list.

I submit to you that assigning Wolf to Kraegor and myself leaves you a gaping hole for Good Specials.

Yes, the Whore visited me the night Grund died. I made a comment about her thighs that morning

Chaosraven wrote:
She has no proof to trust me beyond not handing her over to all of you before she revealed herself.

And really, that is pretty flimsy. Just saying is all. But yeah, shutting up.

Chaosraven wrote:
He has no proof to trust me beyond not handing her over to all of you before he revealed herself.

Yes, the Whore visited me the night Grund died. I made a comment about his thighs that morning

Corrected your passages for posterity.

Bakhtosh wrote:
And yes, come morning, assuming I still live, I'll detail why Kraegor jumped up my list.

another bluff. brilliant. you neutered your own fuckin powers. think real hard and you'll figure out what I mean. that is of course presuming you are the weredog.

Mr Bubbles wrote:Kraegor hasn't visited me to date. Just thought I'd let you know.

fine. no new batteries for you.

Kraegor wrote:

Bakhtosh wrote:
And yes, come morning, assuming I still live, I'll detail why Kraegor jumped up my list.

another bluff. brilliant. you neutered your own fuckin powers. think real hard and you'll figure out what I mean. that is of course presuming you are the weredog.

I hope it's giving the wolves indigestion AND indecision.

*reads*

Geezz! I was hoping the sun would be up by now!

tru1cy wrote:Sometimes we over think this stuff. With no information we should have lynched the obvious choice. Good work team

can't critisize when ya contribute zilch to analysis. stating the simplest and least strategically valuable course of action isn't difficult.