Octopus Overlords

Yeah, sorry - I didn't search too hard, just grabbed the first video I saw - I started to take a video in mine, but then figured there were probably better out there...

My daughters love Emissions Testing mode. Yep, just them.

infinitelurker wrote: Wed Dec 19, 2018 6:23 pm Yeah, sorry - I didn't search too hard, just grabbed the first video I saw - I started to take a video in mine, but then figured there were probably better out there...

No worries. I wasn't faulting you. I appreciate the info on the new features. They sound fun.

Also, Pole Position with the steering wheel is fun. They changed the car to a Tesla, the land to Mars, and put Tesla billboards in the game.

The amount of polish on the fart mode is kind of silly. They clearly loved that feature.

Well, ICEing Tesla superchargers appears to be a thing now.

Will be interesting to watch the cognitive dissonance in a few years when the biggest, baddest pickups are all electric.

pr0ner wrote: Thu Dec 27, 2018 8:40 pm Well, ICEing Tesla superchargers appears to be a thing now.

That article seems a bit biased. They call it a "prank". Um... that's not a prank. That full-on a$$holery. I hope more states pass laws. Calling the cops on someone doing that would be so satisfying. And I don't even own an electric car.

Edit: Or maybe Canadians have a different meaning for "prank"?

Keri and I, (both of whom do love power in our cars, in particular mustangs and challengers) were discusing recently how rumbling mufflers feel more antiquated than cool lately.
I'm not even referring to the obnoxious over the top ones. The rumble of GT just has a retro old aspect to it. The shift to efficiency and high tech isn't going to stop, those guys are the future's old man yelling at clouds.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

Back when I worked in automotive in Dearborn/Detroit there was similar treatment of foreign cars in factory parking lots. But that's a touch more understandable.

I'm not a Tesla fanboi by any stretch but I don't get why people would be threatened by the cars. Maybe their women aren't as impressed by those trucks anymore?

Larry Ellison knows how to make money, I guess, but he's not made very good choices for Oracle lately and he's a bit of an extortionist. They are getting well known for their predatory licensing practices which is one of the reasons Amazon is kicking them out.

I'm definitely conflicted about having him on the board. He's got a very, shall we charitably say customer unfriendly record at Oracle. He's also not exactly aligned with me politically. But he's a big name and should be a strength for Tesla.

And it's nice to see the 2nd new director be both strong in HR (something Tesla seems to be pretty weak at) and a woman (something Tesla needs more of in key positions).

Supercharger prices

As we reported last week, Tesla is moving away from its per state/region pricing structure to implement a per station pricing structure in order to get more comprehensive prices based on local electricity rates and demand charges.

But the change in the structure is also coming with an overall significant increase in price.

At the time, we estimated that the prices are about 33% higher across most markets.
...
Now Tesla told Electrek that it listened to customer feedback and decided to reduce the Supercharger price increase by 10% globally.

After the price increase last week, the average price in the US was $0.31 per kWh.

It is now down to $0.28 per kWh

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1091080660100440065

Amen. Every time I see yet another 'Manufacturer X is going to release their Tesla-killer' headline, a little piece of me dies. Nearly universally, these articles fail to address:

• That Manufacturer X is usually targeting some inconsequential volume
• That Manufacturer X is likely going to sell this vehicle at a loss, unlike Tesla, because Manufacturer X needs to subsidize their gas guzzlers and doesn't want to buy GHG/ZEV credits from Tesla. They'll therefore produce only and exactly what they must to fulfill that goal (see prior bullet point).
• That Manufacturer X is almost certainly not going to meet their timeline. (Ex: GM, Audi, VW, Audi, Porsche, Audi)
• That Manufacturer X's new EV is almost certainly largely going to cannibalize Manufacturer X's other, gasoline-powered vehicles.
• That Manufacturer X's new EV is either going to kind of suck or else it'll push Manufacturer X's customers to want more of this new vehicle, and fewer of their profitable ICE cars.
• That the more mainstream EVs become, that's 1) a positive for Tesla's business as they become more normalized, and 2) a positive for Tesla's stated goal of accelerating the advent of sustainable transport.

The Q4 results were really a game-changer. It was mostly expected (by me and others who have followed/supported the company for years), but now it's out there--Tesla is today sustainably (if not yet wildly) profitable, they can cover their capex to get their currently-announced products up and running solely off of their own cash flow (Model Y, Semi, Roadster 2020, Gigafactories Sparks & Shanghai). The energy side of the business is finally projected to grow significantly after a years-long initial dev stage (1 GWh of storage in 2018, projecting 2 GWh in 2019, and optimistically think 3 GWh is possible). In short, the 'Tesla is going bankwupt' meme is dead.

On top of that, their growth is finally reaching a point where it's significantly impacting other OEMs. In earlier years, their growth as a % was huge, but the absolute #s were so small that the behemoths didn't really care:

2013: +600% over 2012
2014: +41% over 2013
2015: +60% over 2014
2016: +51% over 2015
2017: +35% over 2016
2018: +138% (!) over 2017

This ridiculous 2018 growth happened while becoming profitable in the 2nd half of 2018 and while the Model 3 became the best-selling car in the US by revenue. They're projecting 360k-400k vehicles delivered in 2019. The low end of that would be another 47% growth. Assuming they miss by a bit (as Tesla usually does), and going with 340k, that's still 39% growth a year after 137% growth.

This newfound profitability is before they've truly scaled (eg to have factories on each continent, to have Tesla Energy be delivering in the volume they think they can), and before their Autopilot software is remotely close to fully fleshed-out (but while it's still far better than virtually all shipping competition).

Just doesn't happen in this industry. If I were a legacy OEM, I'd be getting pretty nervous at this point.

I'm willing to bet this Tesla driver was like "WTF?" as their car abruptly stopped - until the speeding car flew in front of them.

The $35k Model 3 is here. Though the $37k SR+ seems like the no-brainer base-ish option to me.

I have one friend at work that has been hemming and hawing about MR and LR and I am pretty sure this will tip him and quite possibly a few others. it's going to get harder to get a charger at work. It was already getting there. When I got my 3 there was only one other in my parking garage, now there are at least 10, plus all the bolts, volts, i3s, leafs and a freaking minivan using the chargers.

coopasonic wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:23 pm I have one friend at work that has been hemming and hawing about MR and LR and I am pretty sure this will tip him and quite possibly a few others. it's going to get harder to get a charger at work. It was already getting there. When I got my 3 there was only one other in my parking garage, now there are at least 10, plus all the bolts, volts, i3s, leafs and a freaking minivan using the chargers.

Just out of curiosity, do people move their vehicles when charging is complete?

Hrothgar wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:31 pm

coopasonic wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:23 pm I have one friend at work that has been hemming and hawing about MR and LR and I am pretty sure this will tip him and quite possibly a few others. it's going to get harder to get a charger at work. It was already getting there. When I got my 3 there was only one other in my parking garage, now there are at least 10, plus all the bolts, volts, i3s, leafs and a freaking minivan using the chargers.

Just out of curiosity, do people move their vehicles when charging is complete?

Honestly I don't really know how others are behaving. Before the Model 3 explosion I know the Volts were just taking advantage of the good parking spots, I don't know if their behavior has changed now that demand is outstripping supply.

I get in early enough that I can get a charger when I need it... and when I need it I generally need it for 6 hours+ as the chargers only give me 24 mi/hr. On the other hand I generally only need it once a week.

We have a slack channel for charger coordination but we haven't really done anything to build awareness of the channel among the EV community.

TSLA was halted after hours on news that they were moving sales to online only. Will be winding down stores and any remaining will be showrooms only, no sales. The savings will be used to keep model 3 prices at target. Market didn't appear to like when AH trading resumed. Meaningless until tomorrow's open though.

I'm sure it'll take a hit between the layoffs and unlikely Q1 profitablity (though prior guidance did have Q1 as iffy). But this has got to be seen as good news overall. The $35k SR and even moreso the $37k SR+ are great deals.

Who's going to buy a Bolt or Leaf with today's news and deal with a far inferior driving experience and lack of a built-out charging network? No one in their right mind. Will put pressure on the other premium manufacturers' pricing, as well.

Market doesn't like the margins on a $35K Model 3.

Layoffs are good (as far as the market is concerned).

The market doesn't know the margins, and the last layoffs were decidedly not greeted positively in Tesla's case.

The margins piece is particularly fun. Headlines have been constant in their bashing of Tesla for not delivering the promised $35k 3. Now they deliver it and we're sure to get a ton more headlines saying it's either a money-loser or an indication of poor demand. We'll see, I guess.

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:05 pm The market doesn't know the margins, and the last layoffs were decidedly not greeted positively in Tesla's case.

The market was told that the layoffs are required to achieve profitability with the $35K price. So that gives a clue to margins. Knowing and taking an educated guess are different, of course.

True.

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:40 pm I'm sure it'll take a hit between the layoffs and unlikely Q1 profitablity (though prior guidance did have Q1 as iffy). But this has got to be seen as good news overall. The $35k SR and even moreso the $37k SR+ are great deals.

Who's going to buy a Bolt or Leaf with today's news and deal with a far inferior driving experience and lack of a built-out charging network? No one in their right mind. Will put pressure on the other premium manufacturers' pricing, as well.

I don't know that it's the slam dunk you suggest. The closest Tesla showroom is 2 hours away. The closest Chevy dealership is 10 minutes. I've never ridden in a Tesla, so maybe it really is worth it, but knowing I can get service the same day if something goes wrong is a pretty big selling point. Also, with the Electrify America build out, the charging networks are getting close enough imo. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next 24 months.

You hit on the biggest win for the traditional OEMs, IMO--areas where Tesla doesn't have much of a presence. This is becoming less and less of an issue, but there are still large swaths of land where it's true. But the reverse is also true--in most metro areas, like mine, Tesla service will literally come to the owner's home or work..

As for the car itself, it really is a slam-dunk in terms of performance and charging, but I'm sure some folks prefer the less-minimalist look. But I'm not just referring to sportiness--things like OTA updates (my car's about to get 5% more power and 15 miles more range via OTA), feature updates, etc. No one's even competing in this area.

Unfortunately Electrify America is not close, not will it be for at least a period of multiple years. The ubiquitousness of the combined Supercharger + Destination charger network, the much larger stations-per-location average, and its integration into the car and your Tesla account is something else no one's even competing on. It's tempting to just look at a map of proposed locations for EA and call it catching up, but the actual user experience is not similar.

I don't mean to demean your purchase--the Bolt is a nice car, as was my Leaf. When there was a five-figure cost differential, they were absolutely worth a look for most people. But now that the costs are similar, it's a much tougher sell. Add in that Tesla is making an order of magnitude more 3s and heavily expanding service availability and quality and it's only going to get tougher.

stessier wrote: Fri Mar 01, 2019 4:27 am It will be interesting to see what happens over the next 24 months.

At least we all agree on this point.

Cost and availability were the things that drew me to the Bolt. If those are no longer significant factors i would never give it another look. Speaking of looks... uhhh... looks.

Zaxxon wrote: Fri Mar 01, 2019 8:47 am You hit on the biggest win for the traditional OEMs, IMO--areas where Tesla doesn't have much of a presence. This is becoming less and less of an issue, but there are still large swaths of land where it's true. But the reverse is also true--in most metro areas, like mine, Tesla service will literally come to the owner's home or work..

As for the car itself, it really is a slam-dunk in terms of performance and charging, but I'm sure some folks prefer the less-minimalist look. But I'm not just referring to sportiness--things like OTA updates (my car's about to get 5% more power and 15 miles more range via OTA), feature updates, etc. No one's even competing in this area.

I think you might put too much value in this. For us, enthusiasts, I agree it's a big deal. I certainly wish the Bolt did it. For the more mainstream buyer, I'm not so sure. On my Bolt message board, one of the guys got a chance to talk with one of the design engineers of the Bolt. One of the things they tried to do was make it so that someone who is used to a gas car could just get in and drive it - the design should feel comfortably familiar and the exterior shouldn't do anything special to draw attention to the fact that it's an electric car. He said they still don't know if they succeeded because the people they designed it for - the Average Joe, if you will - is still not the one buying it. It's only the early adopters/enthusiasts and its skewing their feedback. I found that amusing for some reason.

Unfortunately Electrify America is not close, not will it be for at least a period of multiple years. The ubiquitousness of the combined Supercharger + Destination charger network, the much larger stations-per-location average, and its integration into the car and your Tesla account is something else no one's even competing on. It's tempting to just look at a map of proposed locations for EA and call it catching up, but the actual user experience is not similar.

It's not just Electrify America, though - it's EvGo and Chargepoint and all the others. (EA is just nice in how they are spreading out so quickly.) Plugshare works fine for my trip planning needs. We might both be victims of our local bias - I don't need 12 charging points at a location because no one is every using them around me. And with the build out EA has now and projected through the end of the year, I'm good. I'll be able to get to Alabama, Indiana, and anywhere on the East Coast with no issues. It's also a mostly theoretical exercise too - in 6 months of ownership, I haven't driven outside my county.

I don't mean to demean your purchase--the Bolt is a nice car, as was my Leaf. When there was a five-figure cost differential, they were absolutely worth a look for most people. But now that the costs are similar, it's a much tougher sell. Add in that Tesla is making an order of magnitude more 3s and heavily expanding service availability and quality and it's only going to get tougher.

I didn't see it as demeaning - more of being happy with your team. I'm one of the one's that hates the Model 3 interior (at least what I can tell from videos). I love the exterior though. (Similarly, I'm not thrilled with the Bolt exterior but really like the interior.) When it was time to buy, my wife would have preferred the Tesla based strictly on the name (since we never got to drive one), so they have that going for them. I'm not sure the fact that they are making more will make any difference though - Chevy sells every Bolt they make - it's not like there is an inventory glut they can't get through.

Whatever happens, we just need more people driving these cars. I'm still trying to convince people to even try electric cars. I give rides in mine as often as possible. The latest complaint I got from my friend is that she would never get a car that wasn't a standard because driving without shifting is too boring. I'm still trying to get her to try driving mine anyway, but she's already set on a car for this purchase. The car she is replacing is 16 years old. That's a long time to knock a potential convert out of the pool.

stessier wrote: Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:31 amI think you might put too much value in this. For us, enthusiasts, I agree it's a big deal. I certainly wish the Bolt did it. For the more mainstream buyer, I'm not so sure. On my Bolt message board, one of the guys got a chance to talk with one of the design engineers of the Bolt. One of the things they tried to do was make it so that someone who is used to a gas car could just get in and drive it - the design should feel comfortably familiar and the exterior shouldn't do anything special to draw attention to the fact that it's an electric car. He said they still don't know if they succeeded because the people they designed it for - the Average Joe, if you will - is still not the one buying it. It's only the early adopters/enthusiasts and its skewing their feedback. I found that amusing for some reason.

Yes, there's definitely some bias to overcome before the average Joe is buying BEVs in Camry/Corolla numbers, but largely this is just an exposure problem. My wife's not an early adopter. My mother-in-law sure as hell isn't. But when I got my 3, and my father-in-law got his, it took about eight minutes for our wives to become totally comfortable with the 3. It's just not a big deal, once people are exposed to the reality of the situation--and now that we're over 200k 3s on the road and will more than double that in 2019, that exposure is (finally) coming.

It's not just Electrify America, though - it's EvGo and Chargepoint and all the others. (EA is just nice in how they are spreading out so quickly.) Plugshare works fine for my trip planning needs. We might both be victims of our local bias - I don't need 12 charging points at a location because no one is every using them around me. And with the build out EA has now and projected through the end of the year, I'm good. I'll be able to get to Alabama, Indiana, and anywhere on the East Coast with no issues. It's also a mostly theoretical exercise too - in 6 months of ownership, I haven't driven outside my county.

When I talk competition to the Supercharger network, I'm talking all competitors combined--they just don't measure up, nor will they anytime soon. And if you're mentioning Plugshare for trip-planning, you've already lost. For nerds like you and me, that works. The Jeff Vs of the world won't have it. And the only BEV that is remotely road-trippable by average Joes is a Tesla. That will not change when other EVs have one of several charging networks in their nav, and no destination charging. It won't change when a Wal-Mart off the interstate has a setup with 2 CCS and 1 CHADEMO, any of which could be down or in use when you arrive. It's the totality of the feature set on the Tesla that sets it apart--the nav includes the Super and destination chargers, takes your current charge level, driving characteristics, temp, elevation into account in determining when you need to stop and for how long, shows you how many stalls are available and routes you to a location that has openings, does not require a bunch of charge network cards and a handshake/PoS transaction to charge, etc. You admit you haven't actually road-tripped in the Bolt, and it shows. That's not an insult, just reality--I've done extensive trips in the Tesla, and have direct experience with EvGo and Chargepoint from my Leaf days. Calling them competition on the long-range trip front is just a display of your lack of experience actually using them.

That will change. It's highly unlikely to change this year (or next) to the point where the Tesla and non-Tesla experience are comparable.

I didn't see it as demeaning - more of being happy with your team.

Whew. And for the record, my team is the BEV team--I'd be thrilled if GM suddenly decided to make and sell hundreds of thousands of Bolts/year. Of course, they can't, as they don't control their battery supply and associated costs, and are almost certainly selling the Bolt at a significant loss for compliance purposes--see volume point below.

I'm one of the one's that hates the Model 3 interior (at least what I can tell from videos). I love the exterior though. (Similarly, I'm not thrilled with the Bolt exterior but really like the interior.) When it was time to buy, my wife would have preferred the Tesla based strictly on the name (since we never got to drive one), so they have that going for them. I'm not sure the fact that they are making more will make any difference though - Chevy sells every Bolt they make - it's not like there is an inventory glut they can't get through.

The volume advantage absolutely matters--in economies of scale, defect rate (not that the Chevy has a high one, but that higher volumes help Tesla get theirs down), word-of-mouth, ability of Tesla to keep expanding their charging network, etc.

Whatever happens, we just need more people driving these cars. I'm still trying to convince people to even try electric cars. I give rides in mine as often as possible. The latest complaint I got from my friend is that she would never get a car that wasn't a standard because driving without shifting is too boring. I'm still trying to get her to try driving mine anyway, but she's already set on a car for this purchase. The car she is replacing is 16 years old. That's a long time to knock a potential convert out of the pool.

Agreed. Someone buying an ICE vehicle new today, who can afford a BEV, is a travesty (for our collective future, not calling them assholes). Hopefully we're approaching the cusp where the majority know better. Not holding my breath, though.

As long as the infrastructure isn't fully built out for people who park their cars at home in parking garages or parking lots that don't have chargers, those people can't reasonably buy an EV, even if they could afford one.

Zaxxon wrote: Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:46 am

Agreed. Someone buying an ICE vehicle new today, who can afford a BEV, is a travesty (for our collective future, not calling them assholes). Hopefully we're approaching the cusp where the majority know better. Not holding my breath, though.

I'm probably going to buy out my HEV when the lease is up. I could go BEV but the fact that will have put less than 18K miles on the car over 3 years, at around 35mpg, makes me think that the impact of just keeping it is less than buying a new bundle of plastic and lithium. When it comes time to replace it, probably a BEV. Or Mad Max's car, depending on how things pan out.


My approach is first, drive less. Second, drive a better car.


Most people still think with their wallet today over the environment in the future though, and I can't blame them. When gas is under $3/gallon, heck even $4, they will continue to buy ICE cars and mostly SUVs/trucks.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:28 amMy approach is first, drive less. Second, drive a better car.

Definitely the right approach, and one I still struggle with (esp now that my car is so much more fun to drive than my prior one).

Most people still think with their wallet today over the environment in the future though, and I can't blame them. When gas is under $3/gallon, heck even $4, they will continue to buy ICE cars and mostly SUVs/trucks.

Well, we can definitely blame them.

Tesla is teasing me. I was playing around with the ordering options and saw that autopilot is now $3k at time of purchase so I was curious what it would be for me to add. I rejected the $5k price at time of purchase. I was kind of excited to see that it was only $4k to add autopilot to my car... then I looked at what that 4k got me. Summon, Autopark and Nav on Autopilot are all under FSD now, which would be $11k. $4k just gets me TACC with autosteer. That's less exciting. For a second there I thought I might actually get to have autopilot.

pr0ner wrote: Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:09 am As long as the infrastructure isn't fully built out for people who park their cars at home in parking garages or parking lots that don't have chargers, those people can't reasonably buy an EV, even if they could afford one.

There are still opportunities particularly with the longer ranges of cars like the 3. I charge at work, but if i didn't have that option, I could charge elsewhere once a week. I understand that extra mile is something only an enthusiast is likely to embrace so I understand the problem remains.

I can imagine apartment complexes putting in chargers as a differentiator... but I have a good imagination.

coopasonic wrote: Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:28 pm Tesla is teasing me. I was playing around with the ordering options and saw that autopilot is now $3k at time of purchase so I was curious what it would be for me to add. I rejected the $5k price at time of purchase. I was kind of excited to see that it was only $4k to add autopilot to my car... then I looked at what that 4k got me. Summon, Autopark and Nav on Autopilot are all under FSD now, which would be $11k. $4k just gets me TACC with autosteer. That's less exciting. For a second there I thought I might actually get to have autopilot.

Yeah, they rejiggered the offerings so it's now $3k AP / $5k FSD vs the old $5k EAP / $3k FSD. In doing so, they scooted Summon, Autopark, and Nav on Autopilot to FSD. So it's the same overall $8k, but a lower point of entry if you only really care about TACC and Autosteer. It was a little ridiculous that the only way to get TACC on a Tesla required a $5k payment, so I think this is overall a good move.

They also scooted the cost of upgrade to FSD for me down to the same $3k it would have cost when I bought the car. I'm actually slightly tempted now that the HW3 upgrade is imminent and some level of new features--advanced summon and stop/street light recognition--are finally coming soonish. Maybe. Actually. Kind of. I think.