Octopus Overlords

Moliere wrote: Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:52 pm

coopasonic wrote: Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:10 pm My 401k made more money than I did this year. I believe that is a first for me.

Thanks Trump!

I actually agree with that sentiment. I just 1) don't understand it. 2) wonder what will cause the end of the love affair.

companies, as a whole, aren't earning 30% more and tax cuts in the US combined with increased productivity isn't shifting for instance, the GDP, to a 30% increase to investors.

https://www.thebalance.com/us-economic-outlook-3305669

U.S. GDP growth will rise to 2.5 percent in 2018. It's the same as in 2017, but better than the 2.1 percent growth in 2016. The GDP growth rate will be 2.1 percent in 2019 and 2.0 percent in 2020. That's according to the most recent forecast released at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on December 13, 2017. This estimate takes into account Trump's policies.

Stock market appreciation isn't a direct reflection of GDP or earnings growth .

Sentiment, scarcity, alternative investments, monetary policy, etc are all factors.

Personally though I've been selling.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:23 pm Stock market appreciation isn't a direct reflection of GDP or earnings growth .

Sentiment, scarcity, alternative investments, monetary policy, etc are all factors.

Personally though I've been selling.

I get that but it seems like the piper would eventually come to call unless the stock market eventually becomes a pyramid scheme with not top.

I would be selling but my eye is on retirement, the long term and selling what I have purchased with long term intent is just another way to lose money to my ignorance. I don't play the buy sell buy sell game. I won't cry over market corrections, except for when it comes to putting more money in. I feel like 401k is being dumped into someone else's pocket in the short term, and I'm afraid to to grow my taxable retirement plan portfolio. I just don't understand 30% in growth faith... The sentiment...

Anyone else use Scottrade? Are there any trepidation about moving to TD Ameritrade? It seems *they* kept saying everything was going to stat the same but as migration draws closer one thing after another is supposed to be an easy transition. For instance I have set up a new ACH for deposits. I' not sure if that will be influenced by my credit freeze. I hope not. Lawbeef showed my FRIP in Scottrade which I love. It's going away. I'm wondering what other things are "stay the same" such a way that I hate.

<harumph>

I do use Scottrade and am looking forward to moving from Elite to Thinkorswim. We'll see how the transition goes...

My dad loves Elite and doesn't want to see it go away. I will have to forward your opinion to him. I don't use it, mainly because I'm not an active trader. I just buy and hold when I have enough "laying around" and to fill my Roth IRA.

My opinion isn't super-strong. It's just not the best-made app. I've heard lots of good things about Thinkorswim from folks far more active than I.

FWIW, I have accounts in both Scottrade and Ameritrade. Will be nice to get all my accounts in one place, admittedly.

Think or Swim is great but you can always use their regular app or the website.


As for DRIP, you just set your account to do DRIP and it's done. You may have to call them, don't remember.

Wow, so my AMZN shares just destroyed my CVS and ESRX (Express Scripts) shares. Nice.

Portfolio cannibalism as its worst.

Carpet_pissr wrote: Tue Jan 30, 2018 12:05 pm Wow, so my AMZN shares just destroyed my CVS and ESRX (Express Scripts) shares. Nice.

Portfolio cannibalism as its worst.

I checked in this morning and everything I own was pulling back toward sane levels, which is quite a pullback given how insane things have been. It's ug-lee.

Still moving towards cash but didn't sell anything today. Expecting at least a few more weeks of the Trump Golden Age until any significant "correction".

Closed ORCL, CLR, ABBV last week. A few others I'm forgetting.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:11 pm Still moving towards cash but didn't sell anything today. Expecting at least a few more weeks of the Trump Golden Age until any significant "correction".

Closed ORCL, CLR, ABBV last week. A few others I'm forgetting.

Agree. While we are predicting the stock market direction, I will go on record and say this whole first quarter will be bang up for (long) investors.

And looks like my CVS and Express Scripts are already coming back....just shows you how jittery the market is when a gorilla shifts just a bit. Rightfully so I might add. Down about 8 and 6% this morning, now both are down less than 4%. Not sure why today's announcement caused the turmoil, since
1. it was previously known that Amazon was entering healthcare in some way
2. This agency/JV whatever it is, is ONLY for US employees of these companies (granted, together they employee a shit tone of people). I guess maybe the concern is that this could grow beyond these three companies if the model is successful. Could be a massive disruption in the making. God knows we need that.

So when I started, I put $500 into a lithium speculation stock that has tanked. It's worth about $40 now and I keep it around one of several reminders not to be stupid. However, they keep reorganizing and I just discovered that every time they reorganize, Scottrade charges me a "($20) (Reorg Fee)". So now I'm on the verge of selling my first stock even though I'd rather keep the $40 reminder ($500 lesson) not play games with my savings. Makes me sad. It also means I think I need to deposit more money into my account as I have no idea happens if they play this game the money I have laying around doesn't cover it... Currently about $3 after this last reorg fee.

Anyhoo, it's annoying. As all things ignorance that cost me money are....

LordMortis wrote: Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:39 am So when I started, I put $500 into a lithium speculation stock that has tanked. It's worth about $40 now and I keep it around one of several reminders not to be stupid. However, they keep reorganizing and I just discovered that every time they reorganize, Scottrade charges me a "($20) (Reorg Fee)". So now I'm on the verge of selling my first stock even though I'd rather keep the $40 reminder ($500 lesson) not play games with my savings. Makes me sad. It also means I think I need to deposit more money into my account as I have no idea happens if they play this game the money I have laying around doesn't cover it... Currently about $3 after this last reorg fee.

Anyhoo, it's annoying. As all things ignorance that cost me money are....

It's currently worth $460 in capital loss write offs so...

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Jan 31, 2018 1:57 pm

LordMortis wrote: Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:39 am So when I started, I put $500 into a lithium speculation stock that has tanked. It's worth about $40 now and I keep it around one of several reminders not to be stupid. However, they keep reorganizing and I just discovered that every time they reorganize, Scottrade charges me a "($20) (Reorg Fee)". So now I'm on the verge of selling my first stock even though I'd rather keep the $40 reminder ($500 lesson) not play games with my savings. Makes me sad. It also means I think I need to deposit more money into my account as I have no idea happens if they play this game the money I have laying around doesn't cover it... Currently about $3 after this last reorg fee.

Anyhoo, it's annoying. As all things ignorance that cost me money are....

It's currently worth $460 in capital loss write offs so...

Yeah, but I'm not selling anything and had no plans to until I noticed these occasional $20 fees, so unless I can write it off against dividends, of which I have more than $460 a year.

So save it until you have gains. Unless it's reorganizing 5 more times this year or something.

Can't use it against dividends.

Looks like today is a good day to have been 100% invested in Amazon. Oi.

LordMortis wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:15 am Looks like today is a good day to have been 100% invested in Amazon. Oi.

It's starting to swallow my portfolio, and even though I know logically you should balance your portfolio, I think AMZN has PLENTY of room to run from here. Of course there will be corrections and speed bumps, but this is one of the very few stock holdings I have that I flagged "Don't open for 10 years at least".

Note that it's also happened where I have done this (F, for one), i.e. bought really low, saw it soar to crazy heights (doubling, or more), then back down to where I bought or below. And not talking about day trading kind of stuff...an arc made up of years, and with obviously reputable, huge companies. I guess you could say I am a Buy and Holder, with a huge asterisk behind that.

When I see the "% gain" behind Amazon on my portfolio tracker, I get a really strong urge to just lighten that up a little, cash out some gains, be a little defensive. But nay, I am holding steady, for good or ill. I may be gnashing my teeth in 5 or 10 years about that decision.

I own no AMZN directly. It was hard to think about putting down $1200 for one share. Now it's even harder to think about dropping nearly $1500 for one share. It doesn't help that I don't understand the long term faith in AMZN strength beyond everyone having that faith.

LordMortis wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:36 am I own no AMZN directly. It was hard to think about putting down $1200 for one share. Now it's even harder to think about dropping nearly $1500 for one share. It doesn't help that I don't understand the long term faith in AMZN strength beyond everyone having that faith.

For this quarter, yet again, a big part of it is AWS.

I capitulated when Amazon was around $970. That was what, November? 52% since then.

Maybe I have to breakdown and give AMZN several months of "left over" income and literally buy a couple of shares.

To justify it's current price they need to be earning $73 per share at a 20 PE.

Estimates have them at $24/share in 2020 which would be 5x 2017 earnings.

So, in FY 2022 they should be in the $70 EPS range assuming they can sustain the growth.

Someday their multiple will contract. With their current growth rates, I don't see it any time soon. I do worry about the upside though.

Wow, the markets are getting crushed today. Dow is down almost 640 pts (2.44%), the NASDAQ is down 137 (1.85%) and the S&P is down 51 (1.81%).

Amazon's given back a lot of its pre-market gains, too.

Scottrade says I'm down 1.95%. I'm beating the DOW!

pr0ner wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:10 pm Wow, the markets are getting crushed today. Dow is down almost 640 pts (2.44%), the NASDAQ is down 137 (1.85%) and the S&P is down 51 (1.81%).

Amazon's given back a lot of its pre-market gains, too.

~$30 of the ~$80 I saw last night on Amazon. Mostly a reflection of the market being down over 545 points now, I'd say.

Now that I am sitting on so much cash after a recent selling spree, I'm getting a wild hair to buy more Amazon here.

My "gut" investing thesis is that the entire market is getting slammed. Amazon was up big earlier today before the whole market started to really tank. Got I don't know how many upgrades and "buy"s from analysts this morning, one after the other (fueling that early morning spike).

Assuming that today's current 3% gain (as of 3:30p EST) is suppressed due to the overall market drop, what will happen tomorrow or next week? I'm thinking that is worth at least a few points on a rebound.

Carpet_pissr wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:31 pm Now that I am sitting on so much cash after a recent selling spree, I'm getting a wild hair to buy more Amazon here.

My "gut" investing thesis is that the entire market is getting slammed. Amazon was up big earlier today before the whole market started to really tank. Got I don't know how many upgrades and "buy"s from analysts this morning, one after the other (fueling that early morning spike).

Assuming that today's current 3% gain (as of 3:30p EST) is suppressed due to the overall market drop, what will happen tomorrow or next week? I'm thinking that is worth at least a few points on a rebound.

Apparently it's all AWS growth:

For 2017, Amazon reported net income of $3 billion, or $6.15 a share, on revenue of $177.9 billion, up 31 percent a year ago.

While the numbers from Amazon's e-commerce operations were impressive, the cash cow remains Amazon Web Services. Consider:

Amazon's North America e-commerce business delivered fourth quarter operating income of $1.69 billion on revenue of $37.3 billion.
International e-commerce sales were $18.04 billion with a operating loss of $919 million.
AWS had operating income of $1.35 billion for the fourth quarter with sales of $5.11 billion.
For the year, Amazon's international e-commerce operating losses eclipsed the company's North American operating profit. AWS had 2017 operating income of $4.33 billion on sales of $17.46 billion.

In other words, on an annual basis all of Amazon's operating income derives from AWS.

I haven't looked through to see if Alexa/Echo is contributing yet, but just as when AWS started, Amazon seems to be far ahead of the competition there.

The markets are getting crushed again today - Down is down 1.75%, S&P 1.5%, Nasdaq down 1%.

Your sig says it all.

At least the dollar is down, right? (actually it's creeping back up but not as fast the market is going down)

And January is officially wiped out (for me) for the moment.

pr0ner wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:36 pm The markets are getting crushed again today - Down is down 1.75%, S&P 1.5%, Nasdaq down 1%.

All about the Fed's plan to raise rates at least 3 times this year, coupled with the anticipated doubling of the deficit and requirement for more US borrowing this year in the face of lost tax revenue, AFAIK.

Federal Reserve officials, meeting for the last time under Chair Janet Yellen, left borrowing costs unchanged Wednesday while adding emphasis to their plan for more hikes, setting the stage for an increase in March under Jerome Powell. The Federal Open Market Committee's statement, which changed previous language to collectively acknowledge stronger growth and more confidence that inflation will rise to the 2 percent target, may spur speculation that the Fed will pick up the pace of interest-rate increases. Separately, the U.S. Treasury will increase the amount of long-term debt it sells to $66 billion this quarter, marking the first boost in borrowing since 2009 as it seeks to cover mounting budget deficits.

Japan Losing ‘Cold Currency War’

The U.S. is fighting — and winning — a “cold currency war” against Japan, Europe and others as it seeks to weaken the dollar, according to Pacific Investment Management Co. The greenback’s nearly 12 percent plunge since the start of 2017 is being fueled by fiscal and monetary policies as well as rhetoric intended to debase the U.S. currency, Pimco global economic adviser Joachim Fels wrote in a blog post. Central banks overseas have refrained from pushing back too hard amid fears over increased protectionism from the Trump administration. “Cold wars are not fought in open battle (for example, with currency intervention), but with words and covert actions,” Fels said. “These actions are sending an implicit but very clear signal to markets: A weaker dollar is the goal. Markets have understood the signal.”

This weaker dollar game is dangerous - I really hope it doesn't bite us all. We're a reserve currency because it is seen as stable.

Pyperkub wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:09 pm

pr0ner wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:36 pm The markets are getting crushed again today - Down is down 1.75%, S&P 1.5%, Nasdaq down 1%.

All about the Fed's plan to raise rates at least 3 times this year, coupled with the anticipated doubling of the deficit and requirement for more US borrowing this year in the face of lost tax revenue, AFAIK.

Federal Reserve officials, meeting for the last time under Chair Janet Yellen, left borrowing costs unchanged Wednesday while adding emphasis to their plan for more hikes, setting the stage for an increase in March under Jerome Powell. The Federal Open Market Committee's statement, which changed previous language to collectively acknowledge stronger growth and more confidence that inflation will rise to the 2 percent target, may spur speculation that the Fed will pick up the pace of interest-rate increases. Separately, the U.S. Treasury will increase the amount of long-term debt it sells to $66 billion this quarter, marking the first boost in borrowing since 2009 as it seeks to cover mounting budget deficits.

Edit: My bad that was R&P Away with me.
edit again: Holy crap the market is in a nosedive. Forget wiping out January. SPY is down nearly 2.5 on the day after having taken a beating last week. Not even AMZN is surviving today.

I have mixed feelings about this. Economic performance is still good out there so it isn't much cause for concern. Considering the frothy performance of the market the timing seems ripe for a correction. Stocks are (were?) very expensive and bond yields are improving. That sounds like a great time to shift portfolios to me.

On a personal note - I'm down like $30K but have a $10K 401K annual match coming in the next week or two. It'd be nice if it lands amidst a relative low.

The Dow was down 1500 points at one point this afternoon. Down 4.6% right now.

Last week LordMortis made a post about how wonderful his stocks were doing and how his retirement date was coming sooner than he expected. I took that as a sign that it was time to take profits, and moved a bunch of money out of stocks and into bonds. LM is my leading indicator for market timing. When he goes into full panic, it's time to buy.

Most of my indexes which is most of my money were between 4 and 5% in the red on the day at close. February is crazy, man. Crazy.

Kraken wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:05 pm Last week LordMortis made a post about how wonderful his stocks were doing and how his retirement date was coming sooner than he expected. I took that as a sign that it was time to take profits, and moved a bunch of money out of stocks and into bonds. LM is my leading indicator for market timing. When he goes into full panic, it's time to buy.

You are wise behind your ears.