Octopus Overlords

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 1:33 pm

malchior wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 1:29 pm The case for voting in person is that the polling place is walking distance from my house at a Catholic church's rec center. It's a big wide open space and I've never seen a line there in 10 years.

You're not able to vote in person in NJ any more? Have you stopped following all your hardcore GOP NJ resident friends? We're sliding in a dictatorship here in NJ - haven't you heard? Very limited in person voting. I would expect anyone trying to do so in person is going to be waiting.

Vorret wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:27 pm I'd guess it goes both ways... a Trump fan in a very democratic area might not want to draw attention to himself.

Ignore the polls and vote.

Alefroth wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:36 pm 538 has Biden's chances at 75% now, the best they've been in a couple of months.

Alefroth wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:36 pm 538 has Biden's chances at 75% now, the best they've been in a couple of months.

El Guapo wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:17 pm

Alefroth wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:36 pm 538 has Biden's chances at 75% now, the best they've been in a couple of months.

Two of the five "Trump wins" maps that just popped up involved Trump winning Oregon. Good luck with that.

Swaths of the small southern Oregon cities of Phoenix and Talent now lie in ash, satellite images show, as wildfires wage unprecedented destruction across the US West.

A massive burn scar cuts through parts of Talent and Phoenix, home to about 11,000 people combined. The wounded terrain, seen in images from Maxar Technologies, abuts Interstate 5.

El Guapo wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:17 pm I wonder whether the model will ever spit out a map where Trump wins MA.

El Guapo wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:17 pm

Alefroth wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:36 pm 538 has Biden's chances at 75% now, the best they've been in a couple of months.

Two of the five "Trump wins" maps that just popped up involved Trump winning Oregon. Good luck with that.

I wonder whether the model will ever spit out a map where Trump wins MA.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:25 pm
Dude, it's 2020.

Swaths of the small southern Oregon cities of Phoenix and Talent now lie in ash, satellite images show, as wildfires wage unprecedented destruction across the US West.

A massive burn scar cuts through parts of Talent and Phoenix, home to about 11,000 people combined. The wounded terrain, seen in images from Maxar Technologies, abuts Interstate 5.

El Guapo wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:17 pm

Alefroth wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:36 pm 538 has Biden's chances at 75% now, the best they've been in a couple of months.

Two of the five "Trump wins" maps that just popped up involved Trump winning Oregon. Good luck with that.

I wonder whether the model will ever spit out a map where Trump wins MA.

Kraken wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 9:43 pm Unless the GOP can prove in the next two months that Biden really is a senile pedophile cannibal, he'll enjoy a 20-point landslide in MA.

Vorret wrote:I'd guess it goes both ways... a Trump fan in a very democratic area might not want to draw attention to himself.

Ignore the polls and vote.

RunningMn9 wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 10:59 pm

Vorret wrote:I'd guess it goes both ways... a Trump fan in a very democratic area might not want to draw attention to himself.

Ignore the polls and vote.

What does that have to do with polling? They don’t make you answer the question in front of your friends.

The Wisconsin Supreme Court told election officials across the state on Thursday -- a week before the deadline to mail ballots -- that they can't mail out absentee ballots until the court decides whether to add the Green Party's presidential ticket to the ballot.

Defiant wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:18 pm But regardless of polling, you should go vote.

El Guapo wrote: Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:42 am https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 4390061058

Scraper wrote: Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:49 am My guess is that Trump can't stand the thought of losing any state that he won against Clinton. So he is ordering his staff to spend money on states like IA and GA even though those states are really meaningless when compared to PA or Mich. It's a very dumb strategy, but it's also one that a narcissist would insist on.

Defiant wrote: Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:55 am Could be an attempt to try to help down ballot races (GA, IA have close Senate races. FL, PA, WI don't have Senate races) - if Trump had the ability of thinking about anyone other than himself.

Defiant wrote: Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:55 am Could be an attempt to try to help down ballot races (GA, IA have close Senate races. FL, PA, WI don't have Senate races) - if Trump had the ability of thinking about anyone other than himself.

Scraper wrote: Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:49 am My guess is that Trump can't stand the thought of losing any state that he won against Clinton. So he is ordering his staff to spend money on states like IA and GA even though those states are really meaningless when compared to PA or Mich. It's a very dumb strategy, but it's also one that a narcissist would insist on.

Unagi wrote: Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:02 pm

Scraper wrote: Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:49 am My guess is that Trump can't stand the thought of losing any state that he won against Clinton. So he is ordering his staff to spend money on states like IA and GA even though those states are really meaningless when compared to PA or Mich. It's a very dumb strategy, but it's also one that a narcissist would insist on.

But that wouldn't explain why he isn't putting money into MI (or the others), unless I'm not following you here... He won all of those against Clinton

malchior wrote: Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:05 pm Trump is a fucking moron. He doesn't know what is happening with his campaign. He is watching Fox all night. I'd look at Stepien here. He isn't the most ethical person himself. Perhaps he is looking down the field and putting the spend in places that get *him* brownie points.

Unagi wrote: Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:17 pm LOL, well if Trump gets wind of everyone pointing out he's not spending money where he should be, and it may be because someone else is benefiting - I'd image we may see a change in campaign leadership in the weeks to come.

Democrats are amassing an enormous lead in early voting, alarming Republicans who worry they’ll need to orchestrate a huge Election Day turnout during a deadly coronavirus outbreak to answer the surge.

The Democratic dominance spreads across an array of battleground states, according to absentee ballot request data compiled by state election authorities and analyzed by Democratic and Republican data experts. In North Carolina and Pennsylvania, Democrats have a roughly 3-to-1 advantage over Republicans in absentee ballot requests. In Florida — a must-win for President Donald Trump — the Democratic lead stands at more than 700,000 ballot requests, while the party also leads in New Hampshire, Ohio and Iowa.

Even more concerning for Republicans, Democrats who didn't vote in 2016 are requesting 2020 ballots at higher rates than their GOP counterparts. The most striking example is Pennsylvania, where nearly 175,000 Democrats who sat out the last race have requested ballots, more than double the number of Republicans, according to an analysis of voter rolls by the Democratic firm TargetSmart.

While 61 percent of respondents believe Biden has more respect for the military, just 37 percent say Trump has more respect—a difference of 24 percentage points in the Democratic nominee's favor, according to new polling released Sunday by ABC News/The Washington Post/Ipsos

Danielle Pletka is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

In 2016, I never considered voting for Donald Trump. The Johnny-come-lately Republican and his nasty schoolyard jibes seemed to me the worst degradation of American politics. But in 2020, I may be forced to vote for the man.

Hear me out.

I don’t need a bumper sticker or a lawn sign to convey my distaste for Trump — his odious tweets, his chronic mendacity and general crudeness. Over the past four years, like an oil slick that besmirches all it touches, Trump himself has managed to obscure his administration’s more-substantive accomplishments, such as focusing the world’s attention on China’s threat to global security and brokering a new era of Middle East peace.

I fear Trump’s erratic, personality-driven decision-making. His contempt for NATO is alarming, as is his delusion that he can manage rogue leaders. I don’t doubt that his eagerness to withdraw U.S. troops from their stability missions in places such as Afghanistan and Iraq will encourage conflict and terrorism. And I fret that his bizarrely isolationist attitude toward international trade will hurt the U.S. economy and splinter the global trading juggernaut that over the past half-century has brought the world amazing prosperity, lifting hundreds of millions of people out of extreme poverty.

But I fear the leftward lurch of the Democratic Party even more.

What is there to be afraid of? I fear that former vice president Joe Biden would be a figurehead president, incapable of focus or leadership, who would run a teleprompter presidency with the words drafted by his party’s hard-left ideologues. I fear that a Congress with Democrats controlling both houses — almost certainly ensured by a Biden victory in November — would begin an assault on the institutions of government that preserve the nation’s small “d” democracy. That could include the abolition of the filibuster, creating an executive-legislative monolith of unlimited political power; an increase in the number of Supreme Court seats to ensure a liberal supermajority; passage of devastating economic measures such as the Green New Deal; nationalized health care; the dismantling of U.S. borders and the introduction of socialist-inspired measures that will wreck an economy still recovering from the pandemic shutdown.

Defiant wrote: Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:43 pm Yeah. IIRC, last time Democrats had big leads (not this big, though) in early voting in most of the swing states and we saw how that turned out.

And yeah, if there's a big pandemic surge (especially in important states) that makes people more reluctant to go to the polls on Election Day that could make a major difference.