Ukraine

[malchior]

Crazy stuff. It'd be really interesting to talk to those tankers and understand what they were told about this mission.

[malchior]

[El Guapo]

What's weird is the impression that I get from social media on this makes it seem like this is the Russian military vs. assorted Ukranian civilians. There are Ukrainian military units active, right? Seems like they're active around the airport at least. Maybe it's that they're engaging in irregular combat as much as possible rather than mass pitched battles. And I suppose Ukraine would want to encourage that frame as well to present a better "David vs. Goliath" image.

[malchior]

What's weird is the impression that I get from social media on this makes it seem like this is the Russian military vs. assorted Ukranian civilians. There are Ukrainian military units active, right? Seems like they're active around the airport at least. Maybe it's that they're engaging in irregular combat as much as possible rather than mass pitched battles. And I suppose Ukraine would want to encourage that frame as well to present a better "David vs. Goliath" image.

I don't think so. I'm seeing it differently. The Ukrainians seem to be saying they are all in. In the sense that they say things like our military knows our country more, we have tons of weapons to kill you, and we are motivated to defend our land...and even if you get past us everyone here is armed to the teeth and will gut you too.

[Daehawk]

I wouldn't want to be a Russian soldier going into Ukraine that's for sure. I feel the Ukraine are pro west and a democracy. Hell the normal Russian people are pretty much pro west. Its the Gov thats the hold out again.

[Isgrimnur]

What's weird is the impression that I get from social media on this makes it seem like this is the Russian military vs. assorted Ukranian civilians. There are Ukrainian military units active, right? Seems like they're active around the airport at least. Maybe it's that they're engaging in irregular combat as much as possible rather than mass pitched battles. And I suppose Ukraine would want to encourage that frame as well to present a better "David vs. Goliath" image.

They have a few.

[Kurth]

Regarding the “bylat” spitting guy videoing the destruction of all that Russian military equipment, I don’t understand how the Ukrainians are inflicting that amount of damage on these mechanized columns. That’s an awful lot of destruction they appear to be dealing.

Those vehicles are only lightly armored. They aren’t tanks or Bradley AFV - they are more like armored Humvees or MRAPS. They can take some small arms fire, but only have about a 1/4 inch of armor. They are not meant to be used as the Russians are using them - to spearhead strikes into a heavily defended urban environment.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/GAZ_Tigr

So, can I ask an obvious question? Why are the Russian's using them this way? Russia has armor. Why aren't they deploying that? Is it as simple as Putin thought an invasion of Ukraine would be Crimea 2.0, and the Ukrainians would just fold and accept a Russian takeover? Is Putin holding back his heavy weapons because he's trying to conquer Ukraine without entirely destroying infrastructure and decimating the people? That doesn't seem to be his usual MO.

None of this really makes sense to me.

[Jaymann]

It's like he's playing an RTS and wants to first soften up the enemy with a Zerg rush of clown cars.

[Alefroth]

What I'm reading makes the central bank sanctions + partial SWIFT shutdown as pretty devastating. As the article above says one concern with these types of sanctions is that that they have the potential to be *too* devastating - we don't want the Russian economy to collapse entirely. But what they did sounds pretty severe as is.

I will say I'm pretty shocked by the thoroughness and completeness of the pushback - everything from economic sanctions to air space removal to asset seizures to being kicked out of freaking eurovision. Plus Poland is refusing to play their world cup qualifier match against Russia. I kind of wonder the way things are trending whether Russia could be suspended from the world cup?

And compete as the Russian World Cup Committee?

[$iljanus]

Regarding the “bylat” spitting guy videoing the destruction of all that Russian military equipment, I don’t understand how the Ukrainians are inflicting that amount of damage on these mechanized columns. That’s an awful lot of destruction they appear to be dealing.

Those vehicles are only lightly armored. They aren’t tanks or Bradley AFV - they are more like armored Humvees or MRAPS. They can take some small arms fire, but only have about a 1/4 inch of armor. They are not meant to be used as the Russians are using them - to spearhead strikes into a heavily defended urban environment.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/GAZ_Tigr

So, can I ask an obvious question? Why are the Russian's using them this way? Russia has armor. Why aren't they deploying that? Is it as simple as Putin thought an invasion of Ukraine would be Crimea 2.0, and the Ukrainians would just fold and accept a Russian takeover? Is Putin holding back his heavy weapons because he's trying to conquer Ukraine without entirely destroying infrastructure and decimating the people? That doesn't seem to be his usual MO.

None of this really makes sense to me.

I don't know if it's some kind of "rope a dope" strategy to deplete the Ukrainian Army of anti armor and air missiles, terrible tactics an eventual escalation of force since Russia has the numbers or all of the above? NATO is very good at logistics however so I think we'll be very efficient in keeping the Ukanians supplied...

[Chraolic]

So, can I ask an obvious question? Why are the Russian's using them this way? Russia has armor. Why aren't they deploying that? Is it as simple as Putin thought an invasion of Ukraine would be Crimea 2.0, and the Ukrainians would just fold and accept a Russian takeover? Is Putin holding back his heavy weapons because he's trying to conquer Ukraine without entirely destroying infrastructure and decimating the people?

Presumably they expected most of the defences to be placed in urban environments, where tanks aren't as useful due to being vulnerable to explosives and incendiaries from above and having difficulties manouvering around on narrow streets. Needless to say, things didn't exactly turn out that way.

[malchior]

So, can I ask an obvious question? Why are the Russian's using them this way? Russia has armor. Why aren't they deploying that? Is it as simple as Putin thought an invasion of Ukraine would be Crimea 2.0, and the Ukrainians would just fold and accept a Russian takeover? Is Putin holding back his heavy weapons because he's trying to conquer Ukraine without entirely destroying infrastructure and decimating the people? That doesn't seem to be his usual MO.

None of this really makes sense to me.

A lot of folks are scratching their heads. The long thread I posted above talks to it to some degree but there is a sense of bewilderment. It really looks like they unrealistically traded extreme speed to get to Kyiv for operational safety. They also are doing nonsensical things. For days there has been rumors of an amphibious landing from the Black Sea. It happened a few hours ago but the Russians already had a port and a beach head and didn't need to waste time on the landing. A defense analyst likened it to...we planned a landing...we're going to do a landing even if it were easier/safer/faster to just pull into port. If we learn in a few years that the Russian generals botched this intentionally it'd be believable at this point.

In any case, the main strategy that they banked on was seizing airports and then bringing in troops to quickly surround Kyiv. Instead they got slaughtered there, their transport airplanes got shot down, their armor columns got shot up by drones, etc. But the Russians still have a lot of forces if they can manage to get them into the fight. Ukraine still has a very tough road ahead.

[Kurth]

I've also seen lots of reports that state the entire group of Chechen fighters sent into Ukraine were wiped out, along with their infamous general, Magomed Tushev. Anyone know if this has been confirmed? Also, do we know anything about the size and strength of this contingent of Chechens?

[El Guapo]

It's like he's playing an RTS and wants to first soften up the enemy with a Zerg rush of clown cars.

Well if there's one thing I've learned from RTS AIs is that you should send one unit at a time to attack the enemy base.

[malchior]

I've also seen lots of reports that state the entire group of Chechen fighters sent into Ukraine were wiped out, along with their infamous general, Magomed Tushev. Anyone know if this has been confirmed? Also, do we know anything about the size and strength of this contingent of Chechens?

Not 100% confirmed though it was referenced as a fact in that video I posted in P&R Videos. There was a lot of chatter about this yesterday. To the point that the Russians featured a social media clip with a 'phone call' with him which almost makes it seem like he was killed. About the only thing we know with high confidence was that a regiment sized element of Chechens was wiped out. Some accounts say they were the ones hit in the Bucha video upthread.

[Freyland]

56 tanks, per what I read elsewhere. Not independently confirmed.

[Daehawk]

What is truth is that people are dying for no reason and this didn't have to happen . Its all a useless waste of lives better spent holding your loved ones at night and laughing in the day.

[Holman]

What's weird is the impression that I get from social media on this makes it seem like this is the Russian military vs. assorted Ukranian civilians. There are Ukrainian military units active, right? Seems like they're active around the airport at least. Maybe it's that they're engaging in irregular combat as much as possible rather than mass pitched battles. And I suppose Ukraine would want to encourage that frame as well to present a better "David vs. Goliath" image.

The Ukrainian government has repeatedly warned journalists and citizens not to post any footage of Uk military activity. This is to deny the Russians any intelligence they might get (geolocation, unit IDs, etc) from posted media.

[LawBeefaroni]

So, can I ask an obvious question? Why are the Russian's using them this way? Russia has armor. Why aren't they deploying that? Is it as simple as Putin thought an invasion of Ukraine would be Crimea 2.0, and the Ukrainians would just fold and accept a Russian takeover? Is Putin holding back his heavy weapons because he's trying to conquer Ukraine without entirely destroying infrastructure and decimating the people?

Presumably they expected most of the defences to be placed in urban environments, where tanks aren't as useful due to being vulnerable to explosives and incendiaries from above and having difficulties manouvering around on narrow streets. Needless to say, things didn't exactly turn out that way.

I assume they were trying secure supply lines. Tanks use a ton of fuel and we've already seen many abandoned once they're out of gas. I think the light armor was trying to avoid that.

[xwraith]

On a lighter note.

[Daehawk]

Ya never know. Hey finders keepers.

[malchior]

[Zaxxon]

[malchior]

Another foreign policy wonk with a thread guessing about some of the bewildering things seen in this invasion.

[Scraper]

At this point I think it's safe to say that everyone overestimated Russia's military ability against a somewhat competent and highly motivated opposing force.

[Grifman]

Kiev’s Air Force is getting reinforcements from Poland and several former Warsaw Pact countries that fly former Soviet planes. Total is probably 2 to 3 dozen fighter jets. That’s a significant reinforcement:

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19956 ... n-ukraine/

My latest understanding is that these jets are in the air now.

[IceBear]

Maybe they are acting incompetent for future strategic plans against NATO

[malchior]

I needed a good laugh.

[LawBeefaroni]

At this point I think it's safe to say that everyone overestimated Russia's military ability against a somewhat competent and highly motivated opposing force.

It's seems like Putin sent in the JV team for what he thought was a quick and easy op. They used some special forces but mostly it's the compulsory conscripts. He may have been looking ahead to the next matchup.

[Holman]

In case you're wondering how the Kremlin thinks this is going...



That's going to send shockwaves through the military establishment. Sounds like a desperate attempt to name a scapegoat even before the failure is certain.

My fear is that he's out because he refused to consider nuclear weapons.

[malchior]

There has been on and off again rumors of his firing for days. He was present at the announcement of the nuclear alert level earlier today...so reporting is shaky on this. That is him to the left of Shoigu.

[em2nought]

Did Russia's military get "woke" or something?

[Daehawk]

[Grifman]

Did Russia's military get "woke" or something?

No, that’s the funny thing - they are the anti-woke army

[Grifman]

In case you're wondering how the Kremlin thinks this is going...



That's going to send shockwaves through the military establishment. Sounds like a desperate attempt to name a scapegoat even before the failure is certain.

My fear is that he's out because he refused to consider nuclear weapons.

This is not true, bad info.

[Max Peck]

Someone needs to tell Vindman to rein it in. He's burning his credibility by amplifying rumors like that.

[hitbyambulance]

i know the Russian people always, _always_ get the short end of the stick through history (to say the least), but i see things like this, and i keep feeling that not even Putin dying a slow, painful and extremely protracted death is good enough...

[malchior]

The news out of Kharkiv is not looking good. It seems that they might have now started to indiscriminately shell the city.

Japan joined in cutting off the Russian Central Bank so the Russians now have only access to the remnibi. In a feckless attempt to prop up the roubles they doubled the interest rate to 20% which effectively freezes the internal credit market. They have no access to forex at all and the Biden administration froze all central bank assets in place. The Russians are fucked.

[LordMortis]

i know the Russian people always, _always_ get the short end of the stick through history (to say the least), but i see things like this, and i keep feeling that not even Putin dying a slow, painful and extremely protracted death is good enough...

^^^
This

[LawBeefaroni]

Japan joined in cutting off the Russian Central Bank so the Russians now have only access to the remnibi. In a feckless attempt to prop up the roubles they doubled the interest rate to 20% which effectively freezes the internal credit market. They have no access to forex at all and the Biden administration froze all central bank assets in place. The Russians are fucked.

This is much closer to the total economic warfare that is needed. Not sure if I like the slow roll approach but at least they are getting there.