Octopus Overlords

The odds of getting blood cots from the AZ are about 1,000,000 to 1. Better odds than I had to leave the army alive.

dbt1949 wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 1:32 pm The odds of getting blood cots from the AZ are about 1,000,000 to 1. Better odds than I had to leave the army alive.

Yeah that's not the problem up here, I think overall they certainly have a brand image issue after consistently fucking up their trial -- but more so, the conditions were so different from the mRNA trials that the %s are out of whack to. I'm not entirely clear how well protected I'll be with the AZ vaccine, but it's greater than zero so there's that.

I believe the hesitation is people don't want to take a potentially substandard vaccine that may keep you out of the ICU, but still have you dealing with life long disabilities -- when an mRNA vaccine would do better and it could (COULD) potentially be right around the corner (4-5 months).

More safe now, or zero safe until you are extra safe in August - tough call for some people for sure.

Tomorrow is my first shot day. Its Phizer at Walgreens. I called my local family pharmacy I go to but they dont even know if they are getting it. I prefer them but I am not waiting forever. I called Walgreens and they scheduled me for tomorrow morning right away. Love it. My 2nd will be may 11th.

Rewards for shots... https://blog.cheapism.com/covid-vaccine ... s/#slide=6

I returned to Rockaway NJ to get the second dose for me & my kids today. Since my last visit, they've put up some tents so people won't have to wait outside in the sun & rain.

Funny thing is that today we showed up at 15:40 for our 16:00 appointment. We walked up to the sheriffs, who directed us to the nearly empty line. At the front they were saying "4 PM and earlier go in". I had mixed emotions. I was happy to be in-and-out quickly, but a little distressed about so few people being there. Some of the staff told me that they were pretty busy an hour or so earlier, though.

FishPants wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 9:09 am 40+ in Ontario are eligible for the AZ vaccine now; while I think it's a bit of a PoS it's still better than 0% coverage and will probably call and get it. The guidelines on this vaccine have been changing by the day, and I guess a bunch of it is about to expire. I'm not worried about the blood clotting thing, but I am wondering when they say "100% effective at preventing hospitalization" if that also means "100% effective at preventing long term lung and heart damage".

We know the mRNA vaccines prevent a lot of problems, not sure if the Bud Light of vaccines does as well.

Given my druthers, I'd prefer the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, but I'll take the AZ vaccine if it's offered to me first since some protection is better than no protection. I registered for vaccination through Loblaws/Shoppers on day one once pharmacies started administering the AZ vaccine, but all I've heard back aside from the initial confirmation that I'm registered has been an email thanking me for my patience. Given that the Pfizer vaccine will be the most common one administered as supply ramps up over the coming couple of months, I'd guess that being at the tail end of the priority queue probably increases the odds that I'll end up getting Pfizer rather than any of the other options.

At least that's what I tell myself while I while away the days here in the bunker...

Walgreens told me there was a lot of cancels after the J&J thing.

FishPants wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 5:04 pm when an mRNA vaccine would do better and it could (COULD) potentially be right around the corner (4-5 months).

With the extra 8 million doses that Pfizer has promised over the next 3 months, the feds are now projecting that all adults who want to be vaccinated will be able to get their first dose by the end of June. Previously they were saying that would be the case by September, so we're gaining a couple of months from what was projected prior to the new procurement deal. Assuming there are no new disruptions to the supply chains, the right-around-the-corner time frame is probably 2-3 months now rather than 4-5.

Max Peck wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 6:33 pm

FishPants wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 5:04 pm when an mRNA vaccine would do better and it could (COULD) potentially be right around the corner (4-5 months).

With the extra 8 million doses that Pfizer has promised over the next 3 months, the feds are now projecting that all adults who want to be vaccinated will be able to get their first dose by the end of June. Previously they were saying that would be the case by September, so we're gaining a couple of months from what was projected prior to the new procurement deal. Assuming there are no new disruptions to the supply chains, the right-around-the-corner time frame is probably 2-3 months now rather than 4-5.

Yeah unfortunately with the hard spike in cases, and our sleepy area has started getting clobbered with Covid (a few neighbours now have it) variants -- I'm taking the AZ vaccine. Maybe there will be an mRNA shot down the road for me, but I can't deal with the stress of Covid closing in anymore (and the fed/provincial issues amplifying it). Let's hope they keep getting doses and will have enough to shorten people's second shot from 4 months back down to 28/21 days where it's supposed to be.

FishPants wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 6:40 pm

Max Peck wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 6:33 pm

FishPants wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 5:04 pm when an mRNA vaccine would do better and it could (COULD) potentially be right around the corner (4-5 months).

With the extra 8 million doses that Pfizer has promised over the next 3 months, the feds are now projecting that all adults who want to be vaccinated will be able to get their first dose by the end of June. Previously they were saying that would be the case by September, so we're gaining a couple of months from what was projected prior to the new procurement deal. Assuming there are no new disruptions to the supply chains, the right-around-the-corner time frame is probably 2-3 months now rather than 4-5.

Yeah unfortunately with the hard spike in cases, and our sleepy area has started getting clobbered with Covid (a few neighbours now have it) variants -- I'm taking the AZ vaccine. Maybe there will be an mRNA shot down the road for me, but I can't deal with the stress of Covid closing in anymore (and the fed/provincial issues amplifying it). Let's hope they keep getting doses and will have enough to shorten people's second shot from 4 months back down to 28/21 days where it's supposed to be.

I feel for you. There's definitely a lot of inequity in the global roll-out. Take what you can get for now is what I'd likely do in your shoes.

Daehawk wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 5:46 pm Tomorrow is my first shot day. Its Phizer at Walgreens.

Is that the Walgreens house brand version of Pfizer?

FishPants wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 6:40 pm

Max Peck wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 6:33 pm

FishPants wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 5:04 pm when an mRNA vaccine would do better and it could (COULD) potentially be right around the corner (4-5 months).

With the extra 8 million doses that Pfizer has promised over the next 3 months, the feds are now projecting that all adults who want to be vaccinated will be able to get their first dose by the end of June. Previously they were saying that would be the case by September, so we're gaining a couple of months from what was projected prior to the new procurement deal. Assuming there are no new disruptions to the supply chains, the right-around-the-corner time frame is probably 2-3 months now rather than 4-5.

Yeah unfortunately with the hard spike in cases, and our sleepy area has started getting clobbered with Covid (a few neighbours now have it) variants -- I'm taking the AZ vaccine. Maybe there will be an mRNA shot down the road for me, but I can't deal with the stress of Covid closing in anymore (and the fed/provincial issues amplifying it). Let's hope they keep getting doses and will have enough to shorten people's second shot from 4 months back down to 28/21 days where it's supposed to be.

I'm with you Fish - booked in for 1:15pm today at our local Shoppers Drug Mart. Time to move on with our lives and get whatever protection is available at this point.

And in Arkansas 100s of people aren't showing up for the second dose.

Got my first shot on winning today. Treated myself to a haircut and some BBQ. I didn't feel a thing when I got the shot. She said I may feel a pinch or pressure...felt nothing at all. I even asked if that was it. She said I may feel it tonight. I had to stay in store for 15 min. I simply walked around and shopped.

They gave me a pamphlet for V-Safe. If I sign up they text me each day for a week to see if Im alive then after the 2nd shot for 5 weekly checks. Think Ill skip that.

The pharmacist lady seemed to think there was going to be more problems about the J&J vaccine and there were more women in there today with problems. She didn't specify what. Seemed to think it was a certain age range on people.

You do need to wait 2 weeks for your immune system to respond. Don’t spike the ball on the 2 (week) yard line!

not sure i mentioned this before, but i know someone (female, early 30s) who got the J&J and her injection site is still a large, swollen, red and painful lump, a week and a half later - doctor finally prescribed cortizone for it. everyone else in her family got it, and none of them had anything like this.

2nd dose of Pfizer done!

My 17 year old son just got his first Pfizer shot yesterday. Once he is done, the entire extended family will be vaccinated. I'm really happy - we might be able to see family this summer.

Lassr wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:03 pm 2nd dose of Pfizer done!

May the 4th be with you!

Good news - we found out this afternoon that there was a walk-up vaccination clinic for the day that was set up not that far from our house. My wife headed over, and was able to get her first dose of Pfizer (2nd dose scheduled for May 11th). So an unexpected and welcome development.

Roman wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:20 am

FishPants wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 6:40 pm

Max Peck wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 6:33 pm

FishPants wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 5:04 pm when an mRNA vaccine would do better and it could (COULD) potentially be right around the corner (4-5 months).

With the extra 8 million doses that Pfizer has promised over the next 3 months, the feds are now projecting that all adults who want to be vaccinated will be able to get their first dose by the end of June. Previously they were saying that would be the case by September, so we're gaining a couple of months from what was projected prior to the new procurement deal. Assuming there are no new disruptions to the supply chains, the right-around-the-corner time frame is probably 2-3 months now rather than 4-5.

Yeah unfortunately with the hard spike in cases, and our sleepy area has started getting clobbered with Covid (a few neighbours now have it) variants -- I'm taking the AZ vaccine. Maybe there will be an mRNA shot down the road for me, but I can't deal with the stress of Covid closing in anymore (and the fed/provincial issues amplifying it). Let's hope they keep getting doses and will have enough to shorten people's second shot from 4 months back down to 28/21 days where it's supposed to be.

I'm with you Fish - booked in for 1:15pm today at our local Shoppers Drug Mart. Time to move on with our lives and get whatever protection is available at this point.

Congrats Roman - I am pretty happy to have that, unfortunately my form from the ministry for a date on next shot is blank due to the feds and province having zero f'ing clue how to get out of this.

Won't lie, it sucks to watch the country clamor for vaccines while I'm reading in this same thread about people not even showing up for second doses stateside and a surplus of vaccines. Let alone India is basically burning right now (it surpassed Brazil again for record #s) - I expect that they will close the border to shipments out (where AZ is predominantly made) until that's under control.

El Guapo wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 10:44 pm Good news - we found out this afternoon that there was a walk-up vaccination clinic for the day that was set up not that far from our house. My wife headed over, and was able to get her first dose of Pfizer (2nd dose scheduled for May 11th). So an unexpected and welcome development.

Yea! I didn’t mind driving from Lexington to the Hynes Convention Center but having something a little closer would have been nice. At least they validated parking but it was a little weird walking through the shopping mall after not doing such a mundane thing like that for almost a year.

So are all the adults vaccinated in the El Guapo household?

Between the anti-vaxxers, the hesitancy, and the false press, being vaccinated feels different than it should.

It should feel like a victory, like a battle won, like we're almost there, the end of the war in sight. It doesn't. It feels like taking advantage of a break in the battle to refortify the defenses before they throw the next wave at us.

$iljanus wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 7:45 am

El Guapo wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 10:44 pm Good news - we found out this afternoon that there was a walk-up vaccination clinic for the day that was set up not that far from our house. My wife headed over, and was able to get her first dose of Pfizer (2nd dose scheduled for May 11th). So an unexpected and welcome development.

Yea! I didn’t mind driving from Lexington to the Hynes Convention Center but having something a little closer would have been nice. At least they validated parking but it was a little weird walking through the shopping mall after not doing such a mundane thing like that for almost a year.

So are all the adults vaccinated in the El Guapo household?

Yup! Only one dose so far, but I'm gettin gmy second dose on Saturday (and Mrs. Guapo on May 11th).

Blackhawk wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 8:55 am Between the anti-vaxxers, the hesitancy, and the false press, being vaccinated feels different than it should.

It should feel like a victory, like a battle won, like we're almost there, the end of the war in sight. It doesn't. It feels like taking advantage of a break in the battle to refortify the defenses before they throw the next wave at us.

Same here, only my kids are still not eligible for the vaccine. That dampens even the refortification analogy for me. Don't get me wrong--I'm ecstatic to be fully protected. But since circulating levels aren't likely to drastically fall anytime soon, the level of 'get back to normalcy' for our family is extremely muted until the kids can get the shot. I don't think they'll have it available for 7-year-olds soon enough for my taste.

Yeah, with kids around this only changes so much. It definitely gives an additional comfort that I greatly appreciate. I think it means that we can have our parents over for dinner and whatnot without masks. Otherwise, not a ton.

It does look like there's a decent chance of 12+ becoming eligible this summer, and my daughter will become 12+ this summer, so getting her vaccinated seems within sight. My soon to be 9 YO son...guessing maybe late fall or winter, if testing goes well.

El Guapo wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:20 am Yeah, with kids around this only changes so much. It definitely gives an additional comfort that I greatly appreciate. I think it means that we can have our parents over for dinner and whatnot without masks. Otherwise, not a ton.

It does look like there's a decent chance of 12+ becoming eligible this summer, and my daughter will become 12+ this summer, so getting her vaccinated seems within sight. My soon to be 9 YO son...guessing maybe late fall or winter, if testing goes well.

Yeah, the last I saw it sounded like we'll likely get 12-15 EUA request by the end of this month, and maybe approved by the end of May? Smoove probably remembers more accurately than I.

What I don't have any handle on is how soon after that we see another group down the age range, and how large that group will be. I recall hearing early on that the expectation was that as additional age groups were added, the wait time for each group would shrink since the test phases required aren't as long, or complex, or something something. That seems to have played out in that 12-15 seems to be coming in a shorter period from when 16+ hit, vs the time frame from early adult trials to initial EUA. But I don't know if it's actually true that future groups will come faster or not.

So Smoove, any feel for what we'll see next, and when? 10-11, 8-11?

It'd sure be great to have something below 12 before August, as the 12-15 group doesn't help elementary schools all that much (that's what, a portion of the 6th grade that will become eligible?)

Blackhawk wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 8:55 am Between the anti-vaxxers, the hesitancy, and the false press, being vaccinated feels different than it should.

It should feel like a victory, like a battle won, like we're almost there, the end of the war in sight. It doesn't. It feels like taking advantage of a break in the battle to refortify the defenses before they throw the next wave at us.

I was vaccinated for over 3 months before the wife got her first shot. The kids aren't vaccinated and won't be for some time. So essentially nothing changed for me when I was fully vaccinated.

I'd suggest that being vaccinated, on an individual level, doesn't mean shit. Nothing changes until everyone (or around 80% of everyone) is vaccinated.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:39 am I'd suggest that being vaccinated, on an individual level, doesn't mean shit. Nothing changes until everyone (or around 80% of everyone) is vaccinated.

Good luck waiting for that to happen.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:39 amI was vaccinated for over 3 months before the wife got her first shot. The kids aren't vaccinated and won't be for some time. So essentially nothing changed for me when I was fully vaccinated.

I'd suggest that being vaccinated, on an individual level, doesn't mean shit. Nothing changes until everyone (or around 80% of everyone) is vaccinated.

On a family level, I think it has to mean something. Else what are we doing here? Since...

pr0ner wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:42 am

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:39 am Nothing changes until everyone (or around 80% of everyone) is vaccinated.

Good luck waiting for that to happen.

...is an accurate take.

Once the whole household is vaccinated, if community vaccination levels stop rising at the quickest rate we can get shots into arms, at a certain point folks who are vaccinated have to move on.

El Guapo wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:20 am Yeah, with kids around this only changes so much. It definitely gives an additional comfort that I greatly appreciate. I think it means that we can have our parents over for dinner and whatnot without masks. Otherwise, not a ton.

It does look like there's a decent chance of 12+ becoming eligible this summer, and my daughter will become 12+ this summer, so getting her vaccinated seems within sight. My soon to be 9 YO son...guessing maybe late fall or winter, if testing goes well.

Any plans we make are still tempered by the fact that our daughter isn't vaccinated and because she's 14 it's a little more worrisome to us nowadays if she does get infected by Covid. In anticipation of an emergency use authorization for her age group I did register her on the MA vaccination website. She wasn't bounced due to the birthdate so hopefully they'll retain her info and have an appointment ready to go when the time comes. And I hope the state works closely with pediatrician offices to roll this out but I'll gladly take her into Boston if that's the available vaccination site.

Zaxxon wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:49 am

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:39 amI was vaccinated for over 3 months before the wife got her first shot. The kids aren't vaccinated and won't be for some time. So essentially nothing changed for me when I was fully vaccinated.

I'd suggest that being vaccinated, on an individual level, doesn't mean shit. Nothing changes until everyone (or around 80% of everyone) is vaccinated.

On a family level, I think it has to mean something. Else what are we doing here? Since...

pr0ner wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:42 am

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:39 am Nothing changes until everyone (or around 80% of everyone) is vaccinated.

Good luck waiting for that to happen.

...is an accurate take.

Once the whole household is vaccinated, if community vaccination levels stop rising at the quickest rate we can get shots into arms, at a certain point folks who are vaccinated have to move on.

I almost thought I was being too glib when I made that post. But after I thought about it some more, and after your response, I realized I wasn't being too glib. There's really needs be some moment where life goes on for people who are vaccinated. If we wait for "herd immunity" or some magical vaccination number in such a polarized society, it's never going to happen.

pr0ner wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 11:16 am I almost thought I was being too glib when I made that post. But after I thought about it some more, and after your response, I realized I wasn't being too glib. There's really needs be some moment where life goes on for people who are vaccinated. If we wait for "herd immunity" or some magical vaccination number in such a polarized society, it's never going to happen.

I'm conflicted. I won't wait forever, though I will be respectful. At the same time, if we only ever his 70% and the virus gets the opportunity to mutate and make my vaccine a token defense, even with boosters, then we're not really at the point of life going on.

3 (or four really because caution) more weeks until I start to relax a little but then I don't live with a circle of potential spreaders and i won't be relaxing around people in circles of potential spreaders.

4 More days until my super powers start brewing!

LordMortis wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 11:22 am

pr0ner wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 11:16 am I almost thought I was being too glib when I made that post. But after I thought about it some more, and after your response, I realized I wasn't being too glib. There's really needs be some moment where life goes on for people who are vaccinated. If we wait for "herd immunity" or some magical vaccination number in such a polarized society, it's never going to happen.

I'm conflicted. I won't wait forever, though I will be respectful. At the same time, if we only ever his 70% and the virus gets the opportunity to mutate and make my vaccine a token defense, even with boosters, then we're not really at the point of life going on.

I don't think it's too glib. I do think it's incredibly sad that this is a decision many will have to make, since it's yet another American self-own (not solely American, but certainly driven in large part by America). There's no reason it should be that way, but I will be incredibly surprised if we actually reach 80%+ coverage in the near future.

We surely need to continue holding tight until all age groups are eligible, and for as long as the nation's vaccination rate continues rising significantly. But if we truly do stall out, and at a level too low to reach herd immunity / prevent new mutations, I don't think it's glib to think about what the implications may be.

It's not reasonable to continue as hermits for additional years to protect folks who actively and continually decline that protection. So the question becomes what is reasonable?

Zaxxon wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 11:30 am (not solely American, but certainly driven in large part by America).

That is part of the equation in how long before we start doing something other than locking down. Even if/when get the US to 85% there's 6 billion non US people that also need to get there. As we all know the virus and its mutations don't care about your birth certificate or naturalization card or "American Exceptionalism".

Zaxxon wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 11:30 amI don't think it's too glib. I do think it's incredibly sad that this is a decision many will have to make, since it's yet another American self-own (not solely American, but certainly driven in large part by America). There's no reason it should be that way, but I will be incredibly surprised if we actually reach 80%+ coverage in the near future.

Polling says we're looking at 30-percent-ish hesitancy. Who knows what that'll actually mean but 80% seems like a dream.

We surely need to continue holding tight until all age groups are eligible, and for as long as the nation's vaccination rate continues rising significantly. But if we truly do stall out, and at a level too low to reach herd immunity / prevent new mutations, I don't think it's glib to think about what the implications may be.

It's not reasonable to continue as hermits for additional years to protect folks who actively and continually decline that protection. So the question becomes what is reasonable?

Yep. I've loosened up significantly since we got vaccinated. That doesn't mean we are having anyone but small groups of vaccinated people over. Well groups overstates it - it currently numbers at 1 MIL but at some point that circle is going to expand somewhat until we find the happy medium for us. On the Smoove_B scale I'm probably at an 8 but less than almost everyone I know (I kid). Still we're starting to get more pressure to loosen up which is aggravating but indicates to me in a high compliance area that the long-haul is going to be a slog.

pr0ner wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 11:16 am I almost thought I was being too glib when I made that post. But after I thought about it some more, and after your response, I realized I wasn't being too glib. There's really needs be some moment where life goes on for people who are vaccinated. If we wait for "herd immunity" or some magical vaccination number in such a polarized society, it's never going to happen.

It's been discussed to death (maybe on the other side of the fence), but to borrow a phrase from the LBJ administration - where you stand depends on where you sit.

My parents are both fully vaccinated and in their 70s. They can now hang out with other vaccinated adults (indoors), maskless and socialize. They can also make shopping trips (masked) with the knowledge that they're as protected as they can be. They're not going to out eat in restaurants, traveling or going to the movies, but they have so many more options than they did a year ago. They've lurched forward, even if only a little.

I'm now fully vaccinated; my wife isn't (that won't be until the middle of next month). My 15 year old daughter isn't (and I don't expect her to be before August). While I could likely start socializing with other vaccinated adults based on my status, I don't think it would be fair to my wife or my daughter, both of whom are really struggling from a lack of social interactions. Even when my wife is vaccinated and the two of us could *technically* go on a car ride vacation, the idea that I'd leave my 15 year old home while we go out and try to "return to normal" is alien to me.

If I was single or we didn't have any kids? Everything would likely be different for us. But I'm working with what I have, and so everything continues.

So yeah, for me, personally, nothing has changed. However, I also know that when I'm going to the store I'm lower risk and that I'm most likely not going to be a source of spread for others. That's been driving me over the last year through social distancing. It doesn't feel like I'm doing anything, however by minimizing social contacts I know (even if I can't prove) it made a (collective) difference.

I've said it elsewhere, the pandemic ending isn't going to be like a light switch. We're not all going to wake up on a random Tuesday and get a message that everything is super and we can just go right back to what we were all doing in February of 2020. Instead, it's going to be a much more gradual transition and my gut feeling is that even when things are declared as possible or available, they won't be the same.

This summer will be better for most, but by all accounts it also seems like it's still going to be a real problem for quite a few Americans.

The change for me with my wife and I being vaccinated is that we're more willing to do the non-emergency medical stuff (emergency was always done, of course). We both went to the eye doctor. I've got a physical scheduled this Friday. That's stuff that I would have continued putting off without being vaccinated.

My parents (70s, fully vaccinated) took a road trip to Iowa to visit with my mom's brother and his wife (70s (or maybe late 60s, but with health complications), fully vaccinated). They didn't go out to dinner or anything, but it was nice for them to be able to go out and visit.

We're still locked down in our house as much as possible, though, because my oldest is high risk. He turns 11 in a couple of weeks, so he's not in the next tier to get the vaccine. We tried to get into trials, but haven't heard anything at this point. This means we're still not visiting with fully vaccinated adults and we've opted to keep all the kids (including the lower risk almost 7-year olds) home from school.

So bottom line is that I'm seeing some changes and benefits to vaccination, but we're not letting down our guard yet.

And I think for far too many Americans, the concept of new variants arising from unvaccinated populations is too much for their brains. And for some it's just another scientific "theory" used to scare the masses.

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 11:46 amI've said it elsewhere, the pandemic ending isn't going to be like a light switch. We're not all going to wake up on a random Tuesday and get a message that everything is super and we can just go right back to what we were all doing in February of 2020. Instead, it's going to be a much more gradual transition and my gut feeling is that even when things are declared as possible or available, they won't be the same.

Definitely.

Doom-thinking coming, warning...

My fear is that we will hit a point where vaccination levels have stalled (especially since we will soon (relatively speaking) have to also start tracking booster/variant vaccination compliance), and mutations continue to occur, but circulating levels are way above 'normal' flu levels. I think what I was getting at above is what if it's not just a slow return to mostly-normal over the course of the next 9-12 months or so, but it becomes clear that any real containment is a pipe dream or at the least several years away?

What is that point at which reasonable people move on? Since I know that's ambiguous on both ends, for the purposes of this hypothetical, I'm using:

• 'reasonable people' to mean those who have actually followed CDC guidance, masked, socially-distanced, abstained from air travel / indoor restaurants / etc, gotten vaccinated as soon as eligible and plan to do the same with any recommended boosters, and
• 'move on' to mean evaluate risk solely on its impact to them and their family

That sounds (and is) harsh, but if we do hit a point where it's clear that we're not gonna get herd immunity, it's not reasonable to expect those who are protecting themselves to permanently adjust to a new normal where they do not see other people. Where is the line? It's clear there must be one, so what's a reasonable standard?

To be clear, I'm not advocating that this time is coming super soon--at the least it's months after all ages are eligible for the vaccine, and realistically it's further beyond that since the global roll-out is what really matters. The last five years have taught me that it's good to think about this stuff early, though, since I have little hope that we as a nation, much less we as a planet, will achieve herd immunity any time soon.

This summer will be better for most, but by all accounts it also seems like it's still going to be a real problem for quite a few Americans.

Only will be better for folks without kids, it seems. At least in terms of significantly altering pandemic-precaution behavior. I can't in good conscience go to a movie theater when my kids are at home unprotected.