Lynching Liaisons - The End

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 4:35 pm

That suggestion was before your revelation when it felt like he was lying even though he was undisputed. Or at least I was typing it before your revelation. I don't think that now. I never believe known evil should live unless you have a really good reason to let them live.

Lagom Lite · Post by **Lagom Lite** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 4:36 pm

LordMortis wrote:
Lagom Lite wrote:Maybe we should do what LordMortis suggests, and simply leave Remus hanging for a couple of days. No pun intended.
That suggestion was before you revelation when it felt like he was lying even though he was undisputed. Or at least I was typing it before your revelation. I don't think that now. He never believe known evil should live unless you have a really good reason to let them live.

Ok, now I know you're good.

So, do we shoot Remus or gamble that the wolves were clever to factor in the hunter shot in their sacrifice?

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 4:43 pm

Lagom Lite wrote:Ok, now I know you're good.

So, do we shoot Remus or gamble that the wolves were clever to factor in the hunter shot in their sacrifice?

My gut says shoot remus. Are we going to get a better opportunity to have a possible berzerker wolf get shot? We kill a for sure wolf. And our votes count toward figuring out what is going on.

I'm not smart enough to know if it's better to stay hidden and gamble saving you, tru1cy, theo, and redrun night after night and then take a shot from a smaller pool of people later. There's a great upside to staying hidden and I felt it was good enough I would stay hidden.

Now that I think about it, I'm not even so sure how wise it is for non knowns to debate this...

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 4:47 pm

Lagom Lite wrote:I feel strongly that pr0ner and LordMortis are good.

Glad you're to be trusted, because you have my same read on them.

Unagi wrote:Here is what I feel:
Grundbegriff - I've been thinking zerker on him, cause he seems to have done nothing in an attempt to stave off a lynching.
Lassr - His recent 'ezmating' caught my eye, as that's something he can't help but do when he is a wolf. Before that I had him at slightly 'suspect', so now that's up quite a bit. Additionally, he seemed to be testing the waters for an Unagi lynch the other day, and it sounded contrived.
Vorret - I've gone back and forth on Vorret. Not sure. He only finds Grund to be potentially wolfy, which if you are looking for wolves, shouldn't be the case.
RMC - Middle of the list... I've felt he was human from certain posts, then flipped into thinking he's a wolf.
Pr0ner - 1 of 2 people on this list that I'm kinda leaning human, but I may be WAY off.
Scoop20906 - Middle of the list. I feel like a zerker Scoop would have been more bold, less quiet. So, if he is a wolf, I don't think it's the zerker.
LordMortis - the other person on this list that I'm kinda leaning human... Also, not sure if I'm being a fool here - just my read.
El Guapo - Ever since his brief time in the spotlight the other day, he's looked a hell of a lot more guilty than I had him at first.

I could be convinced that Grund is the Zerker, and Remus was to be used to take the Hunter shot.

Lagom Lite · Post by **Lagom Lite** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 4:49 pm

Unagi wrote:
Lagom Lite wrote:I feel strongly that pr0ner and LordMortis are good.
Glad you're to be trusted, because you have my same read on them.

Unagi wrote:Here is what I feel:
Grundbegriff - I've been thinking zerker on him, cause he seems to have done nothing in an attempt to stave off a lynching.
Lassr - His recent 'ezmating' caught my eye, as that's something he can't help but do when he is a wolf. Before that I had him at slightly 'suspect', so now that's up quite a bit. Additionally, he seemed to be testing the waters for an Unagi lynch the other day, and it sounded contrived.
Vorret - I've gone back and forth on Vorret. Not sure. He only finds Grund to be potentially wolfy, which if you are looking for wolves, shouldn't be the case.
RMC - Middle of the list... I've felt he was human from certain posts, then flipped into thinking he's a wolf.
Pr0ner - 1 of 2 people on this list that I'm kinda leaning human, but I may be WAY off.
Scoop20906 - Middle of the list. I feel like a zerker Scoop would have been more bold, less quiet. So, if he is a wolf, I don't think it's the zerker.
LordMortis - the other person on this list that I'm kinda leaning human... Also, not sure if I'm being a fool here - just my read.
El Guapo - Ever since his brief time in the spotlight the other day, he's looked a hell of a lot more guilty than I had him at first.
I could be convinced that Grund is the Zerker, and Remus was to be used to take the Hunter shot.

My thought exactly. I seems that mind-melding session we tried last weekend really paid off!

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 4:52 pm

And don't go thinking I'm good. I don't want to be alive late game and have to make decisions. BB2112 shows where my decision making takes us.

Lagom Lite · Post by **Lagom Lite** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 4:54 pm

LordMortis wrote:And don't go thinking I'm good. I don't want to be alive late game and have to make decisions. BB2112 shows where my decision making takes us.

It's the other way around - if you're trusted, you're more likely to get night-killed. So me and Unagi claiming to trust you is actually a cunning plot to get you out of end-game!

Lagom Lite · Post by **Lagom Lite** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 4:56 pm

Also, don't feel bad about bb2112. Specials tend to smell like wolves, because they're trying to hide stuff as well. Smelling wolf off of the Seer is pretty normal.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 5:01 pm

Lagom Lite wrote:you're more likely to get night-killed.

That would work for me. I more see you four going first with the hunter mixed in there.

That's ends up with five night kills to take us from 15 to 5 with between zero and two wolves left. I find it improbable that Unagi or pr0ner will be dead before then unless one is a revealed hunter. I don't like being a living decision make in that end game. I'd rather someone else figure that out.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 5:06 pm

Please, this is going to suck for me way worse if I'm alive.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 5:17 pm

tru1cy wrote:Btw, seance bb2112

I agree, lets get this straightened out. I have no idea why Lagom would lie like that.
seance bb2112

Vorret wrote:We can't sceance, the medium is dead!

/shakes fist at sky. Damn you, wolves.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 5:38 pm

OK, that's kinda funny.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 5:51 pm

When a set-theorist breaks it down groupedly
It is clear that the wolves have played stupidly.
While I'm never too shy to take risks, I confess,
My gambits have always a chance of success.
That's why I'm no wolf. For whatever it's worth,
I'll tell you the truth: I'm a tiller of earth.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 6:05 pm

Unagi wrote:Please, this is going to suck for me way worse if I'm alive.

If that's because "OMG, this game might slow down again and take forever" then I feel for you. I don't see you going down in the next five days, but who knows? My knack for being totally wrong could see you dead in spite of me refusing to jump on a train for you.

I was on the Bakhtosh train and I distrusted Remus when he was bad in spite of his again undisputed claims. I feel good enough about that. I can go to the grave in peace and let the game go on without me having to check in.

Of course, I never would have scanned BB2112, wouldn't have put Remus on the chopping block for another day or two, was late to the Bakhtosh train, so there's ample reason to not trust me and put me to the test before the wire and I'm good with that. I hate the wire. I'm already trying to re-evaluate bb2112's relationship with purge and his relationship with RMC trying to figure out if he scanned them and cleared them but the pages get to be too much and I get lost even before remus' reveal which is the bb behavior that needs to be studied.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 6:05 pm

Re-reading....

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 6:08 pm

Shoot Remus. Lynch Grund.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 6:11 pm

Here's the weird thing. My gut distrusted trig who confirmed Remus which didn't sound right to me.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 7:11 pm

Well, holy shit.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 7:39 pm

People bb2112 may have insuated were good.

Unagi <per his praise and mentioning how he'd never want to be on the other side of him
RMC <his beginning of the game questions about about who RMC would vote for and kinda sorta following him

People bb2112 may have insuated were wovles

Purge. I think that's obvious (And then Remus' reveal seemed to save purge. Is that a double bluff? I don't know. Remus had to believe the odds were that he'd get caught that day.)
pr0ner. and his furry avatar though I just don't see it.
Remus or Trig...
LordMortis for leading the charge on him
Scoop whom he voted for but that might have been a move for self preservation
lls list of bad guys

I rather liked your list. It netted us a wolf and I am pretty sure there is at least one other on there, but hell if I know which. I find it funny how people are ready to abandon it after one day. Not funny haha, but funny as in sad.

http://octopusoverlords.com/forum/viewt ... &start=920" target="_blank

Is where things get interesting. That's when the mouth of the Cabal starts to challenge Remus and bb2112 starts to give purge the benefit of the doubt, the day after he insisted on voting for him which means my suspicion of purge just dropped big time.

RW wrote:Just that I'm giving a weird vibe.

Well, that should have been a sign.

Based on my own posting on that page, I should suspect Scoop more than I do and yet I can't see him being bad this many games in a row.

http://octopusoverlords.com/forum/viewt ... start=1000" target="_blank

page where remus "comes out"

....

Looking primarily at pages 32 through 36, I think I'm change my order to

Vorret
Lassr
Scoop20906
chaosraven
purge
Grund
Unagi
pr0ner
RMC ????
LordMortis

Scoop really should be on top but I just can't see him always being evil even if dice have no memory.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 7:41 pm

whoops. Make that...

Looking primarily at pages 32 through 36, I think I'm change my order to

Vorret
Lassr
Scoop20906
chaosraven
Grund
purge
pr0ner
Unagi
RMC ????
LordMortis

Scoop really should be on top but I just can't see him always being evil even if dice have no memory.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 7:49 pm

BTW, no matter what my threat/preference list is, I'm resigned to following the lead of the four knowns at this point and I will defer to their concensus, short of hopping on n-2.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 8:07 pm

BTW, does nobody in this villager make a decent BBQ sauce? For the love of Pete, I just wanted some good BBQ ribs.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 9:29 pm

Checked in (and could be a hunter) since LLs reveal

Mortis
Vorret
Purge
Unagi
Grund
Scoop
pr0ner

Waiting on

Lassr
chaosraven
RMC

To essentially either shoot or pass (for now) before I re-place a vote for Remus.

Among the things I will find funny, if chaosraven is the hunter was remus' "first scan" and shoots remus when he shows up.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 9:45 pm

Remus West wrote:BTW, does nobody in this villager make a decent BBQ sauce? For the love of Pete, I just wanted some good BBQ ribs.

You really want me lynched don't you?

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 9:49 pm

Also would be funny, if redrun actually contacted someone who claimed to be the seer, bb2112 was used as red herring, and remus outed himself.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 9:56 pm

I'd also like to point out I was on the "train" that killed Baktosh early as well as Remus (before him) AND I wasn't on ANY vote that killed any villager.
I don't know what more I can say to prove that I'm good and to stop wasting time on my poor self.

At least look at people that appear more wolfish and analyse their post and vote pattern. Heck, I've pretty much only voted for Grund AND I was one of the one who wanted to sceance BB and thought remus was suspicious.

Looking at my "pattern" we should Lynch Grund, I may be on a unagistreak.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 9:57 pm

I'd also like to take the time to trademark my unagistreak word.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 10:13 pm

Lagom Lite wrote:redrun told me that he contacted Qantaga previously, and Qantaga said he was a villager. Thus, we scanned bb2112.

And.

bb2112 was the Seer.

I'm home and getting caught up and find this bombshell!

That explains why Remus was killing them without letting them talk. Wow, ballsy move!

Hunter should shoot him...if he hasn't already.

<continues reading>

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 10:21 pm

Lagom Lite wrote:
LordMortis wrote:
Lagom Lite wrote:Maybe we should do what LordMortis suggests, and simply leave Remus hanging for a couple of days. No pun intended.
That suggestion was before you revelation when it felt like he was lying even though he was undisputed. Or at least I was typing it before your revelation. I don't think that now. He never believe known evil should live unless you have a really good reason to let them live.
Ok, now I know you're good.

So, do we shoot Remus or gamble that the wolves were clever to factor in the hunter shot in their sacrifice?

Yes, shoot Remus. He is a known wolf and since our seer is dead then we will be guessing on a hunter shot after Remus is dead. Why have the hunter shoot a possible villager when we have a legitimate target?

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 10:28 pm

Unagi wrote: Lassr - His recent 'ezmating' caught my eye, as that's something he can't help but do when he is a wolf. Before that I had him at slightly 'suspect', so now that's up quite a bit. Additionally, he seemed to be testing the waters for an Unagi lynch the other day, and it sounded contrived.

Excellent. I tend to believe you may not be a wolf after this. One time you were a wolf and I caught you when you ignored my ezmating. And yep my statements earlier were kind of contrived because I wasn't quite sure about you and I've been looking for some reactions.

I'm leaning more good now though.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 10:30 pm

Well... I did present that this was a possibility... But why BB did not speak up, I have no clue why he wouldn't have spoken up...

I need to do a reread to really find out where things are......

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 10:31 pm

LordMortis wrote:I should suspect Scoop more than I do and yet I can't see him being bad this many games in a row.

Heh, Remus was bad like 4 games in a row, had a break and now is bad again so it can happen.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 11:12 pm

Want to know something weird? I'm not sure Remus and I have ever been evil together in the same game. I simply can't remember it happening. Hmmmm.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 11:38 pm

Vorret wrote:
Unagi wrote:
Vorret wrote:read too fast , I think you're suggesting quantaga
I sure am. Either of them could have been sitting on the Seer (or Hunter) roles, but the wolves already know about Qantaga, and would love to hear about BB2112.

What's the logic to scan BB2112 over Qantaga?
Well I'm curious as to why Remus killed BB before he had a chance to talk.
Also his "scan" have not been verified by anyone, for all we know, you could be a wolf.

Sure it's some crazy conspiracy theory but... what if?

this raises my eyebrow. It's like you knew Remus was a fake and wanted this out there to make you look good. I gave little thought to Remus faking when no one challenged him. But then again it would have crossed my mind if I had been around when he cast yet another killing vote without letting the target speak so I'm not sure if it really means anything.

I'm just baffled as to why BB remained quite. I need to go back and look at when he spoke during the train on him? Did it pile up before he had a chance to even speak? If he was around when he was getting votes then he should have said something.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 11:45 pm

BB had 4 votes on him when he last spoke then these 6 voted before he was able to speak again.
pr0ner, Qantaga, redrun, El Guapo, Lagom Lite, Remus West

all on that list are identified except Pr0ner...with Remus being a wolf.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 11:48 pm

Scoop20906 wrote:Shoot Remus. Lynch Grund.

and if it is the ole switcharoo then shoot Grund and lynch Remus. I wouldn't put it past these two to have the non zerker come out knowing Grund will probably get lynched eventually then he could go boom.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Sat Jun 22, 2013 2:50 am

LordMortis wrote:
Lagom Lite wrote:redrun told me that he contacted Qantaga previously, and Qantaga said he was a villager. Thus, we scanned bb2112.

And.

bb2112 was the Seer.

And there we go. BB2112, why didn't you speak up!!!!!

Because Remus West lynched him at N-1, just like he lynched El Guapo.

There is a possibility El Guapo was the Hunter... assuming the Hunter has not shot Remus West already. (Still reading to catch up)

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Sat Jun 22, 2013 2:54 am

LordMortis wrote:
Vorret wrote:
LordMortis wrote:
Vorret wrote:
LordMortis wrote:
Vorret wrote:So what if he blows up? We have no *important* good villager left, if a Cabal goes we still have 2 others left.
The medium is dead as well so... who cares?

Does it waste the lynch if he decide to blow up? If not, I'd be happy to see Remus go boom so we can lynch Unagi or CR.
1) He could blow up the hunter.
2) The hunter can blow him up first and as far as I can tell the hunter must be alive.
True, but he doesn't know who the hunter is.
sure the field is small but it's still a crapshoot.
3) The numbers for lynch change until the hunter shoots.

/does math again. Hates this...

15 players = majority of 8
14 players = majority of 8

So boom favors the wolves until the hunter dies. If the hunter dies at night (or dies from a boom) then the boom always favors the wolves.
This is weighed against the potential to protect a target of value and the idea that the hunter can reveal at any time. I couldn't begin to know how to calculate that value and it's something the hunter has to calculate for himself.
I'm gonna be honest with you LM, you just lost me there
All else being equal, an even number of players favors the wolves an odd number favors the village.

Four players left with one wolf and you lynch wrong, the wolves win.

vs.

Three players left with one wolf and you lynch wrong, the wolves win.

It a huge difference.

Ummmm....what?? The wolves always win in your two scenarios. So what the heck are you saying about this odd even thing?

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Sat Jun 22, 2013 3:02 am

RMC wrote:Well... I did present that this was a possibility... But why BB did not speak up, I have no clue why he wouldn't have spoken up...

I need to do a reread to really find out where things are......

Because Remus West killed him before he could talk!!!!

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Sat Jun 22, 2013 3:07 am

Lassr wrote:BB had 4 votes on him when he last spoke then these 6 voted before he was able to speak again.
pr0ner, Qantaga, redrun, El Guapo, Lagom Lite, Remus West

all on that list are identified except Pr0ner...with Remus being a wolf.

Who is on the rest of that list? They are also wolf candidates. Leaving them off bugs me about your villager-ness.

Dear Hunter, please shoot Remus West already, so we can move on to finding the rest of the wolves. A guaranteed wolf kill is the very reason a Hunter should shoot.