Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

[El Guapo]

I would be shocked if voter turnout (including youth voter turnout) wasn't higher in 2020 than in 2018 and 2016 (especially 2016). How *much* higher is I think impossible to estimate, though.

I think the estimate is indeed impossible because the uptick in turnout you'd expect is going to be tempered by pandemic, active suppression, and mail-in ballot rejection impacts just to name a few major headwinds.

I agree - so the question is where in between 2016 and 2020 do we wind up at.

[LawBeefaroni]

I would be shocked if voter turnout (including youth voter turnout) wasn't higher in 2020 than in 2018 and 2016 (especially 2016). How *much* higher is I think impossible to estimate, though.

I think the estimate is indeed impossible because the uptick in turnout you'd expect is going to be tempered by pandemic, active suppression, and mail-in ballot rejection impacts just to name a few major headwinds.

.

Also, 63% wasn't an estimate. It was the number who said they planned to vote.

[Defiant]

Dave Wasserman makes the case that a supreme court battle will hurt Trump's coalition

Although Trump downplayed the abortion issue in 2016 in favor of more populist economic messages on trade and immigration, voters with mostly pro-abortion rights attitudes made up more than a fifth of his support in plenty of battleground states: 25 percent in Iowa; 24 percent in Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania; 21 percent in Arizona; and 20 percent in Ohio and Wisconsin.

The millions of Obama-to-Trump voters who will decide the 2020 election in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and elsewhere tend to tune out attacks on Trump as a divisive or bad person. But they've long despised McConnell, "establishment" Republicans and the religious right — and a Supreme Court fight gives Democrats an opportunity to rip Trump's coalition open.

[Kraken]

But it is almost cult like at this point - why else do you have people refusing simple steps like wearing masks and keeping social distance, why do you have people risking their lives, why do you have people believing Trump more than medical experts. The leader is infallible and their word is the final word, he is the source of all knowledge (how many times has Trump said he knows subject X better than anyone) and cannot be challenged. Trumpism is a massive cult, plain and simple.

A Facebook friend's friend explained why he's a trumper last week; I found it interesting because I never encounter such people myself, having purged them from my life and my news feed long ago. He supports trump because trump defeated ISIS, brought NK under control, took on China, and made America respected in the world again (by which I guess he means feared); because his 401k is soaring; and because trump bypasses the fake media and tells it like it is. 200,000 dead Americans are a hoax, and face masks are some kind of plot by pedophiles to impose facism, or something like that. Liberals are sheep brainwashed by fake news.

That's just plain insanity. You can't argue with someone like that. No point in even trying.

[Carpet_pissr]

There’s a common denominator in all the Trump supporters’ reasons I’ve seen or heard: ‘He tells it like it is’.

i.e. he talks like me, not like the Elitist Prof Obama, and he’s a bit of a selfish twat, also like me.

What I can’t wrap my head around is they seem to latch on to his speech and speech patterns only, not the rest of the stuff, which should IMO overshadow the way he talks. Billionaire, NYC slick conman, 80’s Wall St vibe, etc.

Makes me wonder if a reverse Trump would be popular: amazing vocabulary, speaks in beautiful and meaningful prose, but lives in a van down by the river, cooking meth and on the dole.

[hepcat]

because his 401k is soaring;

Have him look again.

[malchior]

because his 401k is soaring;

Have him look again.

Also give him a hint this still is the one of dumbest performance metrics for a President. They might as well roll bones into a dish.

[hepcat]

True...true.

[Skinypupy]

A Facebook friend's friend explained why he's a trumper last week; I found it interesting because I never encounter such people myself, having purged them from my life and my news feed long ago. He supports trump because trump defeated ISIS, brought NK under control, took on China, and made America respected in the world again (by which I guess he means feared); because his 401k is soaring; and because trump bypasses the fake media and tells it like it is. 200,000 dead Americans are a hoax, and face masks are some kind of plot by pedophiles to impose facism, or something like that. Liberals are sheep brainwashed by fake news.

That's just plain insanity. You can't argue with someone like that. No point in even trying.

I see you've met nearly my entire neighborhood and extended family.

[Isgrimnur]

because his 401k is soaring;

Have him look again.

Also give him a hint this still is the one of dumbest performance metrics for a President. They might as well roll bones into a dish.

That depends. Whose bones?

[Paingod]

When asked what she would do if Trump went out on the street and shot someone as he famously said, aTeumper's response was, "It depends - who did he shoot?" They literally don't care.

When your platform and base are founded on the simple principle of "Hate" it's pretty hard to erode support as long as you don't start caring.

You know what would tank Trump?

If he did something nice.

[Kraken]

A Facebook friend's friend explained why he's a trumper last week; I found it interesting because I never encounter such people myself, having purged them from my life and my news feed long ago. He supports trump because trump defeated ISIS, brought NK under control, took on China, and made America respected in the world again (by which I guess he means feared); because his 401k is soaring; and because trump bypasses the fake media and tells it like it is. 200,000 dead Americans are a hoax, and face masks are some kind of plot by pedophiles to impose facism, or something like that. Liberals are sheep brainwashed by fake news.

That's just plain insanity. You can't argue with someone like that. No point in even trying.

I see you've met nearly my entire neighborhood and extended family.

I forgot one: Masks are no good against wildfire smoke, and viruses are smaller than smoke; ergo, masks are no good against coronavirus, which is simultaneously a hoax and just a mild flu.

[Alefroth]

Ok, not loving this.

Young Americans favor Joe Biden over President Trump, according to a new survey, but Trump's supporters appear more enthusiastic about that choice.

Sixty percent of likely voters under the age of 30 say they will vote for Biden, compared with 27% for Trump, according to a poll from the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics out Monday. But 56% of likely voters who support the president are "very enthusiastic" about voting for him, compared with 35% of likely voters who back the Democratic nominee when asked about their enthusiasm.

It's hard enough to get young voters to actually vote when they ARE enthusiastic. (eh, Bernie?) A 20 point gap sounds insurmountable, but a determined minority can absolutely punch above their weight at the polls.

That said, there is some good news.

Sixty-three percent of respondents said they will "definitely" be voting in November's election. At the same time four years ago, slightly less than half (47%) of young Americans polled said they would definitely vote.

I'm not sure lack of enthusiasm means they won't be voting, it just means they aren't sinking their boats over it.

[malchior]

A Facebook friend's friend explained why he's a trumper last week; I found it interesting because I never encounter such people myself, having purged them from my life and my news feed long ago. He supports trump because trump defeated ISIS, brought NK under control, took on China, and made America respected in the world again (by which I guess he means feared); because his 401k is soaring; and because trump bypasses the fake media and tells it like it is. 200,000 dead Americans are a hoax, and face masks are some kind of plot by pedophiles to impose facism, or something like that. Liberals are sheep brainwashed by fake news.

That's just plain insanity. You can't argue with someone like that. No point in even trying.

I see you've met nearly my entire neighborhood and extended family.

I forgot one: Masks are no good against wildfire smoke, and viruses are smaller than smoke; ergo, masks are no good against coronavirus, which is simultaneously a hoax and just a mild flu.

Mike Judge will be remembered as a great soothsayer in the mists of myth after the apocalypse.

[Unagi]

We need to keep in mind that the can of beans has been turned upside down, and what beans remain in the can are not going to just fall out.

Biden voters, on the other hand, aren’t beans.

[Holman]

There’s a common denominator in all the Trump supporters’ reasons I’ve seen or heard: ‘He tells it like it is’.

i.e. he talks like me, not like the Elitist Prof Obama, and he’s a bit of a selfish twat, also like me.

Don't forget the catalog of open hatreds. I think "He tells it like it is" means "He says what I think."

Tucker Carlson is popular with the same crowd despite never shaking his preppy affectations.

[Carpet_pissr]

Tucker Carlson is popular with the same crowd despite never shaking his preppy affectations.

Great example. Didn’t think about him. He’s got that seething rage monster thing going on though, and that crowd eats that shit up.

I think anyone can be popular on Fox as long as you preach the gospel of irrational fear and anger...angrily enough. All about the anger.

[Paingod]

We need to keep in mind that the can of beans has been turned upside down, and what beans remain in the can are not going to just fall out.

I think that's an apt analogy. My question is how many beans fell out, exactly.

November 4th will be an interesting report on the conscience of America.

[YellowKing]

I'm dancing a fine line here because I don't want to get into the "elite liberal in their ivory tower" business, but I think there's also a desperate need for the less educated in the country to rationalize the educated as the enemy.

There are a couple of factors at play there, I think. By believing in conspiracy theories, they can feel like they have some kind of "secret" knowledge that only those in the know have. Look at those liberal elites, thinking they know everything. But I've got it all figured out. And by making an enemy of science, the educated, etc. they have a convenient out to dismiss it.

It's basically high school on a national scale - the honor roll kids who actually have their act together are being dominated by the angry bullies and incels.

The sad thing is at the heart of it all, you have some REALLY, REALLY insecure people whose only recourse to make themselves feel better is to latch on to guns, anger, and fear. They don't feel empathy because they don't feel any has ever been shown towards them.

I don't really know what the answer is, other than that this two-party shit is a disaster. Nobody springs into existence belonging to one party or the other. That's taught, and we conform to one party or the other, changing our beliefs to match the party's belief system. And as we know, that's insanely dangerous. Because the party's belief systems are getting more and more extreme, and they're dragging otherwise reasonable people with them.

[Defiant]

Trump conned Miami’s Cuban-American supporters while chasing business opportunities in Cuba

He promises that he won’t do business until Cuba is free of the Castro brothers’ regime — and prohibits Americans from traveling to the island — but Trump and his team have been chasing business opportunities in Cuba for the past decade.

[Grifman]

So the Senate Republicans released their much vaunted report on Joe Biden and Ukraine and it's just DOA. Nothing new here, it just rehashed old Republican talking points and does not say that anything regarding Hunter Biden influenced any actions by Joe Biden. It's so much nothing that it may not even garner any headlines:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/23/politics ... index.html

[malchior]

So the Senate Republicans released their much vaunted report on Joe Biden and Ukraine and it's just DOA. Nothing new here, it just rehashed old Republican talking points and does not say that anything regarding Hunter Biden influenced any actions by Joe Biden. It's so much nothing that it may not even garner any headlines:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/23/politics ... index.html

That didn't stop a CBS News reporter from doing her duty to exaggerate it -- guess her Fox News roots are still strong

CBS News senior investigative correspondent Catherine Herridge on Wednesday amplified a politically motivated report by Senate Republicans aiming to dredge up allegations against Hunter Biden’s business involvement in Ukraine. And Herridge, a former Fox News correspondent, has even further embellished the report through a key omission of wording.

This story had become the center of President Donald Trump’s efforts to pressure that country into announcing an investigation against the Biden family in 2019 — and thus to damage his likely election opponent, former Vice President Joe Biden — which led to Trump’s impeachment.

One of the co-authors behind this new report, Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI), openly declared last month that it “would certainly help Donald Trump win reelection,” and this month added, “I just don’t think Joe Biden ever should have run for president.”

Politico notes that the report “repackages old claims” and “largely relies on previously known information.” The Washington Post says the report “failed to demonstrate that [Hunter Biden’s position] changed the administration’s policy toward Ukraine.” CNN is also treating the report’s allegations rather skeptically.

Herridge seems to be alone among current mainstream news personalities in giving this report any credence at all. But it gets even worse when she exaggerates its misleading findings:

https://twitter.com/CBS_Herridge/status ... gainst-joe

Herridge’s phrasing around this supposed interference in fact gives a further spin to the Johnson report, which only alleges on the second page of its executive summary that Hunter Biden’s involvement “did interfere in the efficient execution of policy with respect to Ukraine.” (Emphasis added.) It is 10 pages later that the report admits, “The extent to which Hunter Biden’s role on Burisma’s board affected U.S. policy toward Ukraine is not clear.” In other words: They’ve got nothing.

But by saying that Hunter Biden’s role had interfered simply “did interfere” with the “execution” of U.S. policy, Herridge gives the impression of a substantive effect on Obama-era policy in Ukraine, thus helping to further the Republicans’ baseless attacks on the Democratic presidential nominee.

[Grifman]

That didn't stop a CBS News reporter from doing her duty to exaggerate it -- guess her Fox News roots are still strong[/url]

It's a tweet that doesn't have much reach beyond the rather limited twitterverse. One tweet vs. many stories stating how this really is irrelevant. I'll take that any day.

[El Guapo]

That didn't stop a CBS News reporter from doing her duty to exaggerate it -- guess her Fox News roots are still strong[/url]

It's a tweet that doesn't have much reach beyond the rather limited twitterverse. One tweet vs. many stories stating how this really is irrelevant. I'll take that any day.

Looking at her tweet replies it looks like her audience is mainly Fox News types anyway. I do worry about her being on CBS evening news and generating some bad chyron, but I'm skeptical that this is going to make much of an impact either way.

[Grifman]

Almost 500 national security experts endorse Biden, including a number of generals who served under Trump:

https://www.npr.org/2020/09/24/91618421 ... -president

In any other world, this would be huge news and disqualifying for a candidate but we no longer live in that world.

[Carpet_pissr]

Almost 500 national security experts endorse Biden, including a number of generals who served under Trump:

Sooo, the Derp... I mean DEEP State is anti-Trump?

Shocked. :p

[malchior]

Some asshole conservative writing at WaPo

His argument in briefer form: If only the cherry picked places, where lots of people live, had better unemployment numbers like the less densely populated places then the economy would be better. BTW those places are doing poorly...maybe because Democrats run those places!

This is as illogical as it is mean-spirited. He wants to use examples like Florida fully opening up their economy as a best practice to 'manage COVID-19' while a hundred people a day are dying of it. And Trump should embrace this to turn the election around. The guy lives in a fantasy land where only the economy matters. Conservative intellectualism is *stone dead*.

The national economic picture looks bleak, with unemployment claims still at record highs and the unemployment rate still higher than 8 percent. State-level data, however, paints a much rosier picture for President Trump.

That data shows the national figures are largely driven by bad news from a handful of large states. The most recent data, from the August employment survey, shows that 34 states have an unemployment rate below the national 8.4 percent average. In some cases, the state rate is well below that still-high number. Five states have unemployment rates below 5 percent, a level that would have been considered full unemployment before the turbocharged labor market of recent years. In many parts of the country, people are getting back to work relatively quickly.

...

National unemployment is being driven higher by poor labor markets in a few large states. California, for example, still has an 11.4 percent unemployment rate, and New York stood at 12.5 percent. In all, 10 states — California, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island — had unemployment rates higher than 10 percent. Those states are home to 107 million Americans, roughly 32 percent of the nation’s population. If those economies looked more like the rest of the country’s, the national economic news would be much rosier.

...

The politically shrewd reader will note that nine of those states have Democratic governors. The one that doesn’t, Massachusetts, also had the nation’s largest drop in unemployment in August, from 16.2 percent to 11.3 percent. This gives Trump an obvious line of attack in the fall. He can easily argue that if you want to work, vote for him. If you want to stay at home, vote blue.

Democrats will surely cry foul, noting that some Republican-governed states are experiencing significant increases in covid-19 caseloads. But Trump can easily reply that this simply shows that caseload spikes can be managed without destroying the economy. Swing states Arizona and Florida, for example, managed caseload spikes this summer and still were able to reopen their states quickly. August unemployment dropped to 5.9 percent in Arizona and 7.4 percent in Florida. Expect Trump to cite these and other red state examples as proof that America can have safety and jobs with Republican governance.

[Smoove_B]

That's certainly interesting.

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/stat ... 9658317825

UNITED STATES: 866,000 people have already voted for the November election, compared to 9,500 at the same time in 2016.

[Defiant]

Former Republican Governor and Homeland Security Secretary endorses Biden.

https://twitter.com/RidgeGlobal/status/ ... 2197953542

[YellowKing]

That's certainly interesting.

That almost a million people have committed voter fraud already? I agree, very interesting! Looks like the Democrats are off to a great start stealing this election!

[Kraken]

I won't make up my mind until after the debates.

[Jaymann]

That's certainly interesting.

That almost a million people have committed voter fraud already? I agree, very interesting! Looks like the Democrats are off to a great start stealing this election!

George Orwell: Voting is Fraud

[LawBeefaroni]

That's certainly interesting.

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/stat ... 9658317825

UNITED STATES: 866,000 people have already voted for the November election, compared to 9,500 at the same time in 2016.

Not for nothing, but what happens of Biden (or Trump) don't make it to November? Do those votes get tossed?

[Smoove_B]

Not for nothing, but what happens of Biden (or Trump) don't make it to November? Do those votes get tossed?

Well, if ever there was a year where we'd need to find out, 2020 will be it.

[Defiant]

The electors of the Electoral College get to decide who to vote for. Presumably, they would vote for Kamala Harris or Mike Pence (depending on whether Biden or Trump won), and I would think they would vote for whomever Harris or Pence suggested for the VP slot (or else I would think the new VP would have to get confirmed by the Senate, either in the case that no VP candidate gets 270 votes, or the new President decides to nominate someone once in office.).

IIRC, there was one VP candidate that died during an election in the 19th century.

[Skinypupy]

Straight from the “every accusation is a confession” file, there isn’t an eye roll big enough for this one.

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTr ... 0922230784

I will be strongly demanding a Drug Test of Sleepy Joe Biden prior to, or after, the Debate on Tuesday night. Naturally, I will agree to take one also. His Debate performances have been record setting UNEVEN, to put it mildly. Only drugs could have caused this discrepancy???

What are the odds he bails when he doesn’t get his way?

[malchior]

The electors of the Electoral College get to decide who to vote for.

Ehhh. Not quite. In 32 states they'll be bound by the 'faithless elector' laws of their state. The SCOTUS just confirmed this. In others, they *might* have more freedom to act. In any case, the electors in most states are pretty much ceremonial now. They are party aligned and sign a pledge saying they'll give their EC vote to whoever won the popular vote in most states. Some states allow splits that align closer to popular vote in the state. I'm not too clear on what the New Hampshire's of the world do to split the vote but I assume the electors are allocated to the party; then they are expected to vote for the party's candidate. I'm sure in the case of the candidate's death each state has clear laws that say the national party decides on the replacement and that is who is voted for [/sarcasm]. Anyway, I don't want to think about it because it'd be a complete nightmare.

[Defiant]

The electors of the Electoral College get to decide who to vote for.

Ehhh. Not quite. In 32 states they'll be bound by the 'faithless elector' laws of their state. The SCOTUS just confirmed this. In others, they *might* have more freedom to act. In any case, the electors in most states are pretty much ceremonial now.

OK, in that case, they vote for the dead nominee for President and the living VP candidate for Vice President, and come inauguration day, the VP fills in for the dead Presidential candidate.

[Carpet_pissr]

"Only drugs could have caused this discrepancy???"

Mom?!?

[Octavious]

Talk about desperate. Biden should agree if he provides his tax returns.