Octopus Overlords

msteelers wrote:I vote for Grundbegriff to get the stake. He's a good pick for the vampires, and that is really all we have to go on.

He's a dead pick for the vampires. Pure and simple. Unless the head vamp was okay with only having 2 vampires for the duration of the game.

setaside wrote:

msteelers wrote:I vote for Grundbegriff to get the stake. He's a good pick for the vampires, and that is really all we have to go on.

He's a dead pick for the vampires. Pure and simple. Unless the head vamp was okay with only having 2 vampires for the duration of the game.

Unless you know he's a dead pick for the vampires.

noxiousdog wrote:

setaside wrote:

msteelers wrote:I vote for Grundbegriff to get the stake. He's a good pick for the vampires, and that is really all we have to go on.

He's a dead pick for the vampires. Pure and simple. Unless the head vamp was okay with only having 2 vampires for the duration of the game.

Unless you know he's a dead pick for the vampires.

The only things I know are 1) the fact that my PM box was empty when this game started and 2) how my brain works. If I was the head vamp, I'd be all over the idea of recruiting Grund ... until i spent more than a few seconds thinking about it.

Grund's analytical nature makes him a VERY powerful ally for whichever team he works for. This also makes him a VERY powerful enemy. He's going to be a prime target for both sides.

In my opinion, it makes the most sense for the villagers to let him live through the first night. Have both seers have visions of him to verify whether he's a villager or not and then go from there.

If he is indeed a vampire after tonight, lynch him tomorrow. At most he survives 1 day as a vampire. The vampires cannot protect their own so it's at the very most a 1 day setback for the villagers. If he's a vampire, then by day 2, their numbers will have been decreased by 1, handing the villagers an increased chance of victory by the second day of lynchings.

setaside wrote:

Unless you know he's a dead pick for the vampires.

The only things I know are 1) the fact that my PM box was empty when this game started and 2) how my brain works. If I was the head vamp, I'd be all over the idea of recruiting Grund ... until i spent more than a few seconds thinking about it.

Grund's analytical nature makes him a VERY powerful ally for whichever team he works for. This also makes him a VERY powerful enemy. He's going to be a prime target for both sides.

In my opinion, it makes the most sense for the villagers to let him live through the first night. Have both seers have visions of him to verify whether he's a villager or not and then go from there.

If he is indeed a vampire after tonight, lynch him tomorrow. At most he survives 1 day as a vampire. The vampires cannot protect their own so it's at the very most a 1 day setback for the villagers. If he's a vampire, then by day 2, their numbers will have been decreased by 1, handing the villagers an increased chance of victory by the second day of lynchings.

I agree 100%, though I'd wait until the third day personally.

pr0ner wrote:

noxiousdog wrote:

pr0ner wrote:So what's that, 2 votes for Grund and 4 or 5 for Chaosraven?

I have 4 for chaosraven, 2 for grund, 1 for grenard, and 1 for varity.

Has varity even posted since the game began?

Yes, I have.

ChrisGrenard wrote:I generated a random number to get a vote, and I got the number 10. Thus, I'm voting for Varity.

(Note: For those of you curious, there are 16 people you can vote for, not including yourself. So just go over to google, type a huge random number out followed by %16= and you get a number from 0 to 15. For example, "15862194873847%16=" would give you 7. Don't forget, this is from 0 to 15, so add 1 and you have yourself a completely random vote)

16 people? Wrong game, Grenard, wrong game! And wrong person, I might add.

noxiousdog wrote:

setaside wrote:

Unless you know he's a dead pick for the vampires.

The only things I know are 1) the fact that my PM box was empty when this game started and 2) how my brain works. If I was the head vamp, I'd be all over the idea of recruiting Grund ... until i spent more than a few seconds thinking about it.

Grund's analytical nature makes him a VERY powerful ally for whichever team he works for. This also makes him a VERY powerful enemy. He's going to be a prime target for both sides.

In my opinion, it makes the most sense for the villagers to let him live through the first night. Have both seers have visions of him to verify whether he's a villager or not and then go from there.

If he is indeed a vampire after tonight, lynch him tomorrow. At most he survives 1 day as a vampire. The vampires cannot protect their own so it's at the very most a 1 day setback for the villagers. If he's a vampire, then by day 2, their numbers will have been decreased by 1, handing the villagers an increased chance of victory by the second day of lynchings.

I agree 100%, though I'd wait until the third day personally.

Definitely. As of right now.. two people who think they are fine. won't be before long.

When you dissect someones post, you try to glean some understanding out of it.

I understand why we started with the quiet ones, to force their hand into responding and proclaiming their innocence. We didn't finish voting this way, instead we have turned on each other (ok, more like you have turned on ME, but I'm still part of "us" until the pointy end).

But I once again ask why Mark has a vendetta against me as compared to the collection of those who exhibited better sense and possibly had better motives.

I don't question JD's inital choice, as I said, we were invoking the quiet ones. Just as we voted for Leigh to wake her up.

Setaside waffled prior to the killing blow (is this a vampire pulling back a vote that would make him appear innocent prior to losing a partner?).

Crux tried to throw the fatal vote.

I could go back to examine how quickly the Mark Mob formed (what time was the Kelric, Setaside, Msteelers, pr0ner, Mr Bubbles, chaosraven mob formed in relation to each other?) as I could also examine the evidence of the current mob forming with my name on it.

Yes, varity has posted at least once, tugging on his chin below nestled quotes.

I exhibit suspicious behavior because I am suspicious.

I refuse to exclude myself from the "possible" lists and "behavior analysis" posts because that in itself is suspicious. Objectively, regardless of whatever we claim to be or not be, the point of the game is the unknown factors.

Do the masons vote together? Do the vampires? Do the seers with anyone they may have contacted as an innocent? I think observing voting records and the assembling mobs is the best way to find patterns and make educated guesses.

Flying under the radar only calls attention to oneself. Posting too often and too sporadically accomplish the same thing. Claiming to be something you are not sets you up to be called out by the person who is indeed that position.

While Grund calls for a Mason to refute NoxiousDog, the mason in question has to consider whether he trusts Grund enough to do so. If no one steps forward do we assume they are afraid or that NoxiousDog is indeed a Mason?

More later assuming I still live.

Chaosraven wrote: While Grund calls for a Mason to refute NoxiousDog, the mason in question has to consider whether he trusts Grund enough to do so. If no one steps forward do we assume they are afraid or that NoxiousDog is indeed a Mason?

More later assuming I still live.

If I am not a Mason, it makes sense for one of the true Mason pair to come forth, especially now that I have publically identified my self. Yes, it puts their word against mine, but it would highlight two suspicious people, and I'd actually suggest you put both of us to death. I'd certainly sacrifice myself for the village.

But since no one comes forward, it would imply that I'm telling the truth.

Analyzing....

Grundbegriff wrote:Analyzing....

Equalizing Posterior Matrices...

ChrisGrenard wrote:

Grundbegriff wrote:Analyzing....

Equalizing Posterior Matrices...

Reticulating Splines.......

Just out of curiousity, has anyone NOT been contacted by the Fearless Vampire Hunter?

I have had 0 contact so far this game. But that's fine with me, I'm just riding this one out.

noxiousdog wrote:

Grundbegriff wrote: (Of course, maybe I am the FVH or a Freemason, but that would be too clever by half, don't you think?)

Or maybe you're a vampire. You may or may not know it.

Correct. I am not the Alpha Vampire. However, it is possible the Vampires will infect me tonight; no protection can prevent that. The only relevant question is whether choosing me at this point would be a good move or a fatally obvious move.

Chaosraven wrote:While Grund calls for a Mason to refute NoxiousDog, the mason in question has to consider whether he trusts Grund enough to do so.

If noxiousdog is not a mason, it is an enormous blunder for the masons to refrain from outing him whether they trust me or not.

If I'm a liar, a web of trust is developing around noxiousdog.
If I'm not a liar, a web of trust is developing around noxiousdog.
Therefore, a web of trust is developing around noxiousdog!

If he's not worthy of that trust, someone who knows this must intervene, even if it means sacrificing himself. If nobody steps up, odds are quite high that noxiousdog actually is a mason (or that the two real masons are deeply confused).

I haven't.


Looking back at the initial rush to lynch...

Chaosraven suspects Noxiousdog
JD asks for who is quiet
Setaside suspects Leigh (pointedly as a joke)
JD suspects Grenard and then retracts notice as Grenard shows
JD votes for Orinoco
Kelric suspects Grund
JD Votes for Mark at 7pm OO time

Then this is where I find a few interesting points.

pr0ner and msteelers vote for Leigh within 2 minutes of each other.

kelric votes leigh within ten
chaosraven votes leigh within half an hour
setaside votes leigh within another half hour

leigh arrives a few minutes after setaside votes.

shortly thereafter, msteelers changes to mark as does pr0ner (once again within 2 minutes)

mr bubbles votes for mark at 845,
chaosraven votes for mark at 852

setaside withdraws his mark vote at 925
crux votes for mark at 941


The coincidental timing of msteelers and pr0ner gives me suspicion.

Theories?

I vote to let Grund live tonight, let the seers do their thing and go from there. The question is who will be tonight's sacrifice? I believe we're on the clock now and at this point it's Chaosraven's head on the chopping block. He hasn't said anything yet that would lead me to believe he is a vampire, but someone has to go on the first night to get things rolling.

I have no problem giving my life based on general consensus.

I hope that the voting for my release will expose the monsters in some way fathomable to my fellow villagers.

pr0ner wrote:Grund is making a HUGE, HUGE play based on the assumption that he won't be a Beta Vamp after the first lynching.

This outrageous play makes me highly suspicious.

Consider my options:
If I do nothing, either the villagers will kill me (for fear that I'm a vampire) or the vampires will kill me (for being a dangerous villager). Either way, I die and those who kill me have nothing to lose.

In contrast, if I make the info-gathering move that I've made, my chance of staying alive increases. The villagers will be hesitant to kill me (preferring instead to recruit and protect me) and the vampires will be hesitant to kill me (preferring instead to recruit and protect me).

My play has therefore increased the odds that I'll be in the game (one way or another) rather than be killed at the outset. I get to play for a while. Wheeee!

After the first night, I'll either be infected or not. The villagers must make it a priority to determine whether I'm trustworthy. They have the tools to do this. If I am, they'll protect me; if I'm not, they'll kill me.

I believe the rules indicate that the Alpha Vamp had to choose his team before any of this went down. If, however, the Alpha Vamp has discretion throughout the first day (trig?), he should think through the implications of choosing me. There's an up side and there's a down side. Neither is a slam dunk, and Alpha (if allowed) will have to decide which side is more important.

Grundbegriff wrote: I believe the rules indicate that the Alpha Vamp had to choose his team before any of this went down. If, however, the Alpha Vamp has discretion throughout the first day (trig?), he should think through the implications of choosing me. There's an up side and there's a down side. Neither is a slam dunk, and Alpha (if allowed) will have to decide which side is more important.

The Alpha has to choose early such that he doesn't choose a seer, mason, or hunter.

setaside wrote:I'd suggest that BOTH seers have a vision of Grund tonight. He's claimed to be a plain villager. If both seers have a vision of Grund and he turns up as something other than a villager, then they will know for certain that he is (or was turned into) a vampire.

Slight correction:
I have claimed that I'm not a Vampire (which at this stage is the same as claiming I'm not the Alpha Vampire).
I have claimed that I'm not the Fearless Vampire Hunter.
I have spoken of the Freemasons in the third person, suggesting that I am not among their number. The Masons know whether I'm a Mason.
I have not said whether or not I'm a Seer.

This means that setaside is right: Any Seer who dreams of me tonight will either learn that I'm a simple villager or that there's "more than meets the eye". The former would prove that the Alpha Vampire didn't infect me. The latter would prove either that the Alpha did infect me or that I'm a Seer (or that I lied about not being the FVH, or that I'm an awfully tricky Mason).

Best case scenario for the villagers would be unambiguous confirmation that I'm a simple villager. That's 100% reliable (assuming those who know it can make themselves trusted. However, confirmation that I'm not a simple villager wouldn't automagically peg me as a Vampire. But I grant that it would make my status ambiguous at best, short of other grounds for trust or mistrust.

lynching Grund at this point in the game is very premature in my opinion.

It would be a pointless waste for either side to kill me in this round. As noxiousdog remarked, it'll take a good two rounds to figure out where I stand, after which point I'll either be a protected innocent or a dead vampire....

Edit: I have to go to a meeting. Afterward, I'll offer some advice about how to select a stakeworthy person for the first day. Y'all don't go and kill Chaosraven till I get back, mmkay?

Grundbegriff wrote: It would be a pointless waste for either side to kill me in this round. As noxiousdog remarked, it'll take a good two rounds to figure out where I stand, after which point I'll either be a protected innocent or a dead vampire....

I agree with everything but this. You're still a great target for the vamps to kill because you're very dangerous to them. Their three targets have to be FVH (if they know who it is, and I suspect everyone knows who it is... or at least who is pretending to be), me, and you.

I'm beginning to think we should bring the other Mason out into the open. Otherwise, when I die, there will be no one to back up his story. Does it make an appealing target? I suppose, but then there are 4 appealing targets, and at least they won't get lynched.

I shall await Grund's manipulati-... err, advice.... before voting.

noxiousdog wrote: I'm beginning to think we should bring the other Mason out into the open. Otherwise, when I die, there will be no one to back up his story. Does it make an appealing target? I suppose, but then there are 4 appealing targets, and at least they won't get lynched.

I, too, am of the opinion that the two masons should come forward and publicly declare their complete trust in each other. Right NOW, they are still in the unique position of being the only ones who can do so, unless the alpha vampire can find a villager of Myopis Punderheimers caliber and get him to swear allegiance.

If the freemasons were to do this, it would create a very strong nucleus to a web of trust. That should sharply decrease their risk of being lynched, but, of course, will increase the risk of becoming a vampires evening snack. This will, most likely, make vampire hunter shield them, giving him a much better chance to block off one or more vampire attacks completely. It will also make the seers life easier, as their chance of detecting innocents is increased and they have another party with which to share their findings.

Also, I think the freemasons are the most expendable of the villagers. The seers and innocents are needed to form webs of thrust and the vampire hunter is needed to deflect obvious attacks and could establish his own web of thrust if he succeeds in doing so. The freemasons can only gain trust if one of them vouches for the other, dies and turns out to be innocent.

I think the best way for them to serve the village is in the way I proposed.

Varity, the flaw is that the best possible outcome is for the vampire hunter to protect me and we keep mason 2 hidden.

What I am afraid of is that Grund has a pact with FVH to protect him.

There is some validity to that stance, as an innocent villager is required to transport info from the seer to the masons, and grund has already done a significant portion of that work in laying the foundation. He's pretty smrt and would be very valuable in defending the village.

So, what the FVH has to weigh is that is a hidden mason more important than grund's groundwork, intelligence, and possible vampireness.

Just want to interject, out of character, that this game is proving to be a VERY interesting game. I have to say that I LOVE that we've strayed away from the obligatory mindless lynching at the start of the game and have instead opted for a more sleuth-like approach. This game is rocking so far, even if it's moving at a snail's pace.

noxiousdog wrote:Varity, the flaw is that the best possible outcome is for the vampire hunter to protect me and we keep mason 2 hidden.

What I am afraid of is that Grund has a pact with FVH to protect him.

There is some validity to that stance, as an innocent villager is required to transport info from the seer to the masons, and grund has already done a significant portion of that work in laying the foundation. He's pretty smrt and would be very valuable in defending the village.

So, what the FVH has to weigh is that is a hidden mason more important than grund's groundwork, intelligence, and possible vampireness.

Wouldn't the FVH be on a guessing game anyway? With a vocal "innocent", 2 masons, and potentially vocal innocents contacted by the seers, who to protect?

Chaosraven wrote: Wouldn't the FVH be on a guessing game anyway? With a vocal "innocent", 2 masons, and potentially vocal innocents contacted by the seers, who to protect?

As of now there are only two choices. Me or Grund. Anyone else would be a crapshoot, assuming that FVH's identity is still hidden.

As I see it, and it's certainly open for discussion or I wouldn't have put it forth, the FVH should protect me, we can keep mason 2 hidden, and Grund probably dies.

If that's not the case, FVH should contact me say he's protecting grund, and we reveal mason 2, and I probably die.

Which isn't to say that the vamps know who FVH is and FVH dies.

And the seers shouldn't have contacted anyone. Anyone that came up innocent on day 1 has a shot at becoming a vamp.

I believe that has already been stated as wrong.

triggercut wrote: That said, seers are now flying a bit blinder--their first dream will have all three vamps alive, so ignore the part in my initial post about seers getting an "innocent" read if they dream a beta vamp; they'll get the "not an innocent" reading instead. Obviously we'll take down an npc Villager (that guy in the red shirt over there...) to start the game on day one, with the villagers choosing a victim for staking/lynching.

Unless I misread that.

Chaosraven wrote:

triggercut wrote: That said, seers are now flying a bit blinder--their first dream will have all three vamps alive, so ignore the part in my initial post about seers getting an "innocent" read if they dream a beta vamp; they'll get the "not an innocent" reading instead. Obviously we'll take down an npc Villager (that guy in the red shirt over there...) to start the game on day one, with the villagers choosing a victim for staking/lynching.

Unless I misread that.

Doh. that's twice I've done that.

So there were 8 innocent and 7 non-innocent, as the seers were themselves on the latter list, they get a vision based on 8 and 6.

The downside of course is that a mason, seer, or FVH come up as an unknown quantity just like a wolf.

Assuming both seers got a non-innocent on their vision, what can they do?

Answer: nothing as it doesn't remove the person from suspicion.

They need to identify innocents and contact them.

Assuming I live through the day, I invite the seer(s) to check me to verify my non-powered entity status. I do not call for the FVH to protect me, as there are people more vital to this game to protect.

And if the vampires eat me, that's one less person for you others to lynch erroneously, as well as serving a purpose by allowing my death to take the place of someone we need.

I do feel that lynching me will deprive you of the chance to get a bloodsucker, though.

setaside wrote:Just want to interject, out of character, that this game is proving to be a VERY interesting game. I have to say that I LOVE that we've strayed away from the obligatory mindless lynching at the start of the game and have instead opted for a more sleuth-like approach. This game is rocking so far, even if it's moving at a snail's pace.

Actually having Grund around can be useful.. Who'd of thought, but serious.. I do like how the game has taken a different turn. But then again I really have no clue where to put my vote. But definitely a good start.

noxiousdog wrote:

Grundbegriff wrote: It would be a pointless waste for either side to kill me in this round. As noxiousdog remarked, it'll take a good two rounds to figure out where I stand, after which point I'll either be a protected innocent or a dead vampire....

I agree with everything but this. You're still a great target for the vamps to kill because you're very dangerous to them.

Right. That's why I've said that it's essential for the FVH, whoever he/she is, to protect me tonight. Then, if the Alpha Vamp hasn't infected me, I'll still be alive and useful to the non-Vamps.

noxiousdog wrote:As I see it, and it's certainly open for discussion or I wouldn't have put it forth, the FVH should protect me, we can keep mason 2 hidden, and Grund probably dies.

The two candidates for protection are you and I. If the FVH protects you and the Alpha Vamp doesn't infect me, the Vampires will probably kill me.

If that's not the case, FVH should contact me say he's protecting grund, and we reveal mason 2, and I probably die.

There's a third scenario, and a better one:

The FVH protects me. The second Mason stays hidden. You reveal only to me who the second Mason is.

If you then die, are innocent, and I don't become a Vampire, I'll have a solid node of trust: the second Mason. At least one Seer will have a basis to trust me, and I'll have a basis to trust the FVH who saved me.

If you die and I do become a Vampire, I'll know who the second Mason is-- but that's no different from your proposed alternative of simply announcing to everyone (including the Vampire(s)) who the second Mason is!

Keeping the identity of the second mason non-public would be very wise, as I said before. Telling me privately (and telling one other trusted person privately, if you have one) would also be wise, for the reason stated. It's a no-loss/possibly-big-win scenario.

Quick note--it's 5:00 edt, and I'll be back to have a look-see around 8:30 or 9:00.

Your scenario is NOT no-loss, Grund.

Let Noxiousdog do what he wants to with the other Mason information. Trying to goad it out of him is extremely fishy.

pr0ner wrote:Your scenario is NOT no-loss, Grund.

Let Noxiousdog do what he wants to with the other Mason information. Trying to goad it out of him is extremely fishy.

I agree. It just seems like we're trying to figure out a puzzle without all the pieces.

pr0ner wrote:Your scenario is NOT no-loss, Grund.

Let Noxiousdog do what he wants to with the other Mason information. Trying to goad it out of him is extremely fishy.

Interesting that you find it fishy, given that his proposed alternative to my plan is simply to go public with the info.

I'm trying to persuade noxiousdog to be less informative, not more informative.

Anyone who thinks this through and then re-reads your comment will certainly find it odd that you're stretching so hard to cast doubt on me-- for the second time.

BTW: why are you so interested in "letting Noxiousdog" go public with the identity of the second Mason? Why do you think that's a good idea?