Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

[El Guapo]

I know it's dumb to get excited by a singular poll, especially early in the race, but FWIW the latest CNN poll has Biden with a 55-41 lead (which of course prompted a "CNN fake news" tweet from our illustrious leader).

[hepcat]

It will be interesting to see who jumps ship if polling is this bad later this year. They won't jump to Biden, of course (in most cases). But I suspect many will come out with the old "I never really believed in Trump" statements if the wind looks like it's blowing in the wrong direction for him.

[Holman]

It will be interesting to see who jumps ship if polling is this bad later this year. They won't jump to Biden, of course (in most cases). But I suspect many will come out with the old "I never really believed in Trump" statements if the wind looks like it's blowing in the wrong direction for him.

Sitting Republicans are in a tight spot. Jettisoning Trump means losing the party base for no equivalent gain.

Romney's the only one in a position to do it, and only because Utah is Utah.

[LordMortis]

It will be interesting to see who jumps ship if polling is this bad later this year. They won't jump to Biden, of course (in most cases). But I suspect many will come out with the old "I never really believed in Trump" statements if the wind looks like it's blowing in the wrong direction for him.

Sitting Republicans are in a tight spot. Jettisoning Trump means losing the party base for no equivalent gain.

Romney's the only one in a position to do it, and only because Utah is Utah.

It might be because I have no ability to see republicans as a prodigal son. I don't see how they can return. The GOP has been increasingly scorched earth for nearly a decade. Who do you hope to re-claim turning swords to plowshares when the land can no longer be seeded?

[Holman]

It will be interesting to see who jumps ship if polling is this bad later this year. They won't jump to Biden, of course (in most cases). But I suspect many will come out with the old "I never really believed in Trump" statements if the wind looks like it's blowing in the wrong direction for him.

Sitting Republicans are in a tight spot. Jettisoning Trump means losing the party base for no equivalent gain.

Romney's the only one in a position to do it, and only because Utah is Utah.

It might be because I have no ability to see republicans as a prodigal son. I don't see how they can return. The GOP has been increasingly scorched earth for nearly a decade. Who do you hope to re-claim turning swords to plowshares when the land can no longer be seeded?

A few Republicans have hedged bets enough to claim some separation from Trump even as they've supported his agenda. (Hell, apart from his impeachment vote, Romney has been a solidly loyal GOP Trumpist in all but rhetoric.)

If the GOP has to remake itself by erasing Trump, Mark Rubio and Nikki Haley are probably well positioned to assert deniability and try for party leadership: they've never actually alienated Trump and the rest of the party, but they're not identified with Trumpism like a Lindsey Graham or a Ted Cruz.

I don't think there's time for someone like Jeb Bush to revive his career, and John Kasich has made himself too much of a party outsider.

Regardless, we all know that the party will double-down on fascism in defeat. The 2024 ticket will be Cotton/Gaetz.

[gameoverman]

I know it's dumb to get excited by a singular poll, especially early in the race, but FWIW the latest CNN poll has Biden with a 55-41 lead (which of course prompted a "CNN fake news" tweet from our illustrious leader).

I was thinking about how Trump doesn't respond well to bad news. What might result from a summer full of 'Biden is leading' polls? Is it possible he might sink his own ship by lashing out in more deranged ways? Wouldn't it be delicious if the country actually started to do better against the virus and the economy started to improve but it didn't matter during the election because Trump was too far gone into his rage mode and had alienated too many people?

[Kraken]

It will be interesting to see who jumps ship if polling is this bad later this year. They won't jump to Biden, of course (in most cases). But I suspect many will come out with the old "I never really believed in Trump" statements if the wind looks like it's blowing in the wrong direction for him.

Sitting Republicans are in a tight spot. Jettisoning Trump means losing the party base for no equivalent gain.

Romney's the only one in a position to do it, and only because Utah is Utah.

It might be because I have no ability to see republicans as a prodigal son. I don't see how they can return. The GOP has been increasingly scorched earth for nearly a decade. Who do you hope to re-claim turning swords to plowshares when the land can no longer be seeded?

A few Republicans have hedged bets enough to claim some separation from Trump even as they've supported his agenda. (Hell, apart from his impeachment vote, Romney has been a solidly loyal GOP Trumpist in all but rhetoric.)

If the GOP has to remake itself by erasing Trump, Mark Rubio and Nikki Haley are probably well positioned to assert deniability and try for party leadership: they've never actually alienated Trump and the rest of the party, but they're not identified with Trumpism like a Lindsey Graham or a Ted Cruz.

I don't think there's time for someone like Jeb Bush to revive his career, and John Kasich has made himself too much of a party outsider.

Regardless, we all know that the party will double-down on fascism in defeat. The 2024 ticket will be Cotton/Gaetz.

Republican politicians are terrified of their own voters. With 90% of them solidly behind trump, trying to stake out any other ground is political suicide. The GOP isn't going to come to its senses as long as its voters scream for red meat.

[El Guapo]

I know it's dumb to get excited by a singular poll, especially early in the race, but FWIW the latest CNN poll has Biden with a 55-41 lead (which of course prompted a "CNN fake news" tweet from our illustrious leader).

I was thinking about how Trump doesn't respond well to bad news. What might result from a summer full of 'Biden is leading' polls? Is it possible he might sink his own ship by lashing out in more deranged ways? Wouldn't it be delicious if the country actually started to do better against the virus and the economy started to improve but it didn't matter during the election because Trump was too far gone into his rage mode and had alienated too many people?

Yeah, I have been wondering about the possibility that Trump gets into a bad feedback loop that dooms him. We'll see.

Also on the upside, Biden's now leading by 10 points in polling from the past couple weeks. What's also significant is that he's breaking 50% in multiple polls. While Clinton led consistently in 2016 polling, she never cracked 50% (and didn't come super close) - her leads were more like 45-42, 46-41, etc., which left Trump an opening because he only needed to persuade undecided / third party voters. Trump to come back is probably going to need to persuade voters who are currently supporting Biden.

[Remus West]

I know it's dumb to get excited by a singular poll, especially early in the race, but FWIW the latest CNN poll has Biden with a 55-41 lead (which of course prompted a "CNN fake news" tweet from our illustrious leader).

I was thinking about how Trump doesn't respond well to bad news. What might result from a summer full of 'Biden is leading' polls? Is it possible he might sink his own ship by lashing out in more deranged ways? Wouldn't it be delicious if the country actually started to do better against the virus and the economy started to improve but it didn't matter during the election because Trump was too far gone into his rage mode and had alienated too many people?

Yeah, I have been wondering about the possibility that Trump gets into a bad feedback loop that dooms him. We'll see.

Also on the upside, Biden's now leading by 10 points in polling from the past couple weeks. What's also significant is that he's breaking 50% in multiple polls. While Clinton led consistently in 2016 polling, she never cracked 50% (and didn't come super close) - her leads were more like 45-42, 46-41, etc., which left Trump an opening because he only needed to persuade undecided / third party voters. Trump to come back is probably going to need to persuade voters who are currently supporting Biden.

Honestly I would rather see polls showing things a lot lot closer to keep the left motivated. Polls mean shit all if turn out is shit all. We need people to actually show up and vote. We (Americans) traditionally have a LOT more political bark than bite. We really need bite right now and any sense of comfort about tRump being certain to lose may keep some lazy ass voters home.

[Grifman]

Right now, Biden has more paths to victory:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/12/politics ... index.html

[hepcat]

Welp, another letter to CNN from the WH is on its way now.

[Kraken]

It's been my understanding that trump will win WI and PA due to heavy GOP control there. Doesn't matter how many people try to vote for Biden, those minority Republican governments will block or invalidate them. Or am I in tinfoil hat territory?

[El Guapo]

It's been my understanding that trump will win WI and PA due to heavy GOP control there. Doesn't matter how many people try to vote for Biden, those minority Republican governments will block or invalidate them. Or am I in tinfoil hat territory?

Wisconsin is more of a problem, because the GOP legislature has gerrymandered its way into a veto-proof majority. In PA they don't have that, I believe.

[hepcat]

Oof

[Holman]

It's been my understanding that trump will win WI and PA due to heavy GOP control there. Doesn't matter how many people try to vote for Biden, those minority Republican governments will block or invalidate them. Or am I in tinfoil hat territory?

All the votes have been counted, and the signs are that this year's PA primary election (with a huge amount a vote-by-mail) went off without any serious hitches.

While it's true that the GOP has the legislature, the whole Executive branch are Democrats, and the state Supreme Court is 5-2 Dem.

[Grifman]

These are the type of people that are going to cost Trump the election:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/13/politics ... index.html

[Ralph-Wiggum]

My brother’s FIL from Texas told him yesterday that he plans to vote for Biden. He has never voted for a Democrat before but just said he likes Biden. He also told my brother not to tell anyone; I think he’s afraid of his finding out.

[Defiant]

These are the type of people that are going to cost Trump the election:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/13/politics ... index.html

The person that's going to cost Trump the election is Trump.

[YellowKing]

He also told my brother not to tell anyone; I think he’s afraid of his finding out.

I have the feeling that a number of 2016 Trump voters are going to be secretly pulling the ballot for Biden. My prediction is that this election is not going to be close.

[Holman]

He also told my brother not to tell anyone; I think he’s afraid of his finding out.

I have the feeling that a number of 2016 Trump voters are going to be secretly pulling the ballot for Biden. My prediction is that this election is not going to be close.

I assume Sanders would not have produced this same expectation?

Trump is going to spend the next few months trying to present Joe Biden as the most radical Leftist since Eugene Debs. It's not going to work.

[Jeff V]

The big question is whether Trump will suppress more votes against him to offset those who jump off the MAGA bandwagon.

[YellowKing]

I assume Sanders would not have produced this same expectation?

That's my assumption. Sanders certainly didn't have the same broad demographic appeal. And if you're a Republican who's planning on voting against Trump, a relative moderate like Biden with a history of reaching across the aisle is a much easier pill to swallow than a combatant leftist like Sanders.

That's not to say Bernie couldn't have won. We may have reached the critical tipping point in which America has had enough of Trump's destruction, and are looking to rectify the mistakes of 2016 no matter who they have to vote for.

The big question is whether Trump will suppress more votes against him to offset those who jump off the MAGA bandwagon.

It's even more dire for him than that. He's lost a huge percentage of the female vote from 2016, and has lost support among both seniors and whites without college degrees.

[Default]

It's been my understanding that trump will win WI and PA due to heavy GOP control there. Doesn't matter how many people try to vote for Biden, those minority Republican governments will block or invalidate them. Or am I in tinfoil hat territory?

There are a LOT of Republicans with buyers regret on my route. I figure anger alone will drive Dems to the polls, and I suspect there will be a significant amount of GOP voters that will just turn on Netflix.

[Kraken]

Just idly thinking about foreign interference in our election: Who do you think is playing, and on which side? By playing, I just mean a state investing resources to affect the outcome, ranging anywhere from hacking states' systems to planting propaganda.

Russia and China are obviously benefiting from our decline, and know that another four years would knock us out. NK and Iran would both like him overthrown. I'm sure all of those actors are playing to some extent, even if it's only manipulating social media. Who else is dabbling for whom?

[Ralph-Wiggum]

Why do you assume NK would want Trump overthrown? He has done more to legitimize their leadership than any president I can remember.

[Kraken]

NK's saber-rattling has gotten louder again, and some experts speculate that they're working up to an October surprise.

'Course, it could just be a ruse to extract more concessions from him.

[hepcat]

Why do you assume NK would want Trump overthrown? He has done more to legitimize their leadership than any president I can remember.

True, but if they're seen as an enemy of Trump's at this point, they gain even more "world street cred" since Trump is hated by pretty much every world leader...and thought of as an idiot by the very few who even kind of like him/don't hate him.

NK used Trump for what they needed. They played him like a big, orange bass drum.

[Grifman]

The big question is whether Trump will suppress more votes against him to offset those who jump off the MAGA bandwagon.

How exactly at this point? He wasn't able to suppress turnout in the 2018 elections and the Republicans got crushed. About all he can do now is try to make people sour on Biden so that they won't show up at the polls. Somehow, I don't think that is going to work. People are buying what he is selling any longer - most of what he says either rolls of people's backs or turns them against him. I personally think the MAGA "magic" is gone.

[Grifman]

He also told my brother not to tell anyone; I think he’s afraid of his finding out.

I have the feeling that a number of 2016 Trump voters are going to be secretly pulling the ballot for Biden. My prediction is that this election is not going to be close.

I could be wrong but my gut tells me this is going to be a massive humiliating repudiation of Trump. I just don't think the old divide and conquer, appeal to the base is working any longer. Trump would like to use the earlier riots and violence as a "Law and Order" candidate. However, that doesn't seem to be working because the majority of American now believe that there are problems with the police, that racism is an issue, even despite the violence. Even conservatives are coming around. So he can't really use this when most American disagree with him and won't buy what he is selling. The only thing that can help him at this point is a recovery in the economy but with the virus still out there, and if it gains strength, then there could be further shutdowns by necessity.

[Holman]

We still have to wait and see what kind of Reichstag Fire he can come up with.

[Unagi]

He also told my brother not to tell anyone; I think he’s afraid of his finding out.

I have the feeling that a number of 2016 Trump voters are going to be secretly pulling the ballot for Biden. My prediction is that this election is not going to be close.

Your mom ?
(Honest inquiry)

[malchior]

We still have to wait and see what kind of Reichstag Fire he can come up with.

Yup the danger of this rises inversely to his polls.

[malchior]

The big question is whether Trump will suppress more votes against him to offset those who jump off the MAGA bandwagon.

How exactly at this point? He wasn't able to suppress turnout in the 2018 elections and the Republicans got crushed.

This is how they'll attempt it. I also agree that it'll likely fail. There are just too many energized people for it to succeed.

[YellowKing]

Your mom ?
(Honest inquiry)

I'd say it's at least a 50/50 shot.

The problem with my mom is that she's mostly apolitical. She votes only in Presidential elections because she feels she has to, and even then she typically makes her mind up around a single issue. She almost never watches the news (too depressing), so she's extremely ill-informed on policy issues.

There's a huge difference this year from 2016, however. In 2016 she was married to a guy that was a die-hard #MAGA Fox News Trumper, and she was living in that bubble 24/7. They've been separated for a couple of years now, so I'm hoping that influence has faded significantly. It's probably going to mean she just sits 2020 out than votes for Biden, but it's still one less Trump vote out there.

[Jeff V]

The big question is whether Trump will suppress more votes against him to offset those who jump off the MAGA bandwagon.

How exactly at this point? He wasn't able to suppress turnout in the 2018 elections and the Republicans got crushed. About all he can do now is try to make people sour on Biden so that they won't show up at the polls. Somehow, I don't think that is going to work. People are buying what he is selling any longer - most of what he says either rolls of people's backs or turns them against him. I personally think the MAGA "magic" is gone.

Have you been paying attention to his attacks on voting by mail? More so than any election in the past, there is a demand for this method of voting and he (and the rest of the elephants) are trying to squash it with their invalid cries of voter fraud. I'm expecting the Covid shit-show will be at it's worse around election time, and squashing safe methods of voting will deter a lot of people.

[Kraken]

The big question is whether Trump will suppress more votes against him to offset those who jump off the MAGA bandwagon.

How exactly at this point? He wasn't able to suppress turnout in the 2018 elections and the Republicans got crushed. About all he can do now is try to make people sour on Biden so that they won't show up at the polls. Somehow, I don't think that is going to work. People are buying what he is selling any longer - most of what he says either rolls of people's backs or turns them against him. I personally think the MAGA "magic" is gone.

Have you been paying attention to his attacks on voting by mail? More so than any election in the past, there is a demand for this method of voting and he (and the rest of the elephants) are trying to squash it with their invalid cries of voter fraud. I'm expecting the Covid shit-show will be at it's worse around election time, and squashing safe methods of voting will deter a lot of people.

This is what trump can do at the federal level. In case you missed it, he'd also like to shut down the USPS for a brief and convenient time. His scheduled Tulsa rally is going to give covid a kick in the pants...that's a feature, not a bug. Trump's base is verging on pro-pandemic...and trump has never cared about anybody except his base.

[Unagi]

The big question is whether Trump will suppress more votes against him to offset those who jump off the MAGA bandwagon.

How exactly at this point? He wasn't able to suppress turnout in the 2018 elections and the Republicans got crushed. About all he can do now is try to make people sour on Biden so that they won't show up at the polls. Somehow, I don't think that is going to work. People are buying what he is selling any longer - most of what he says either rolls of people's backs or turns them against him. I personally think the MAGA "magic" is gone.

Have you been paying attention to his attacks on voting by mail? More so than any election in the past, there is a demand for this method of voting and he (and the rest of the elephants) are trying to squash it with their invalid cries of voter fraud. I'm expecting the Covid shit-show will be at it's worse around election time, and squashing safe methods of voting will deter a lot of people.

Not if the last week has taught you anything

[Grifman]

The big question is whether Trump will suppress more votes against him to offset those who jump off the MAGA bandwagon.

How exactly at this point? He wasn't able to suppress turnout in the 2018 elections and the Republicans got crushed. About all he can do now is try to make people sour on Biden so that they won't show up at the polls. Somehow, I don't think that is going to work. People are buying what he is selling any longer - most of what he says either rolls of people's backs or turns them against him. I personally think the MAGA "magic" is gone.

Have you been paying attention to his attacks on voting by mail? More so than any election in the past, there is a demand for this method of voting and he (and the rest of the elephants) are trying to squash it with their invalid cries of voter fraud. I'm expecting the Covid shit-show will be at it's worse around election time, and squashing safe methods of voting will deter a lot of people.

No, of course, I post on here all the time and I am totally oblivious to his attacks on vote by mail. But seriously, that's all he can do. It hasn't stopped a single state from sending out applications for voting by mail. So far it's all talk.

[Grifman]

The big question is whether Trump will suppress more votes against him to offset those who jump off the MAGA bandwagon.

How exactly at this point? He wasn't able to suppress turnout in the 2018 elections and the Republicans got crushed. About all he can do now is try to make people sour on Biden so that they won't show up at the polls. Somehow, I don't think that is going to work. People are buying what he is selling any longer - most of what he says either rolls of people's backs or turns them against him. I personally think the MAGA "magic" is gone.

Have you been paying attention to his attacks on voting by mail? More so than any election in the past, there is a demand for this method of voting and he (and the rest of the elephants) are trying to squash it with their invalid cries of voter fraud. I'm expecting the Covid shit-show will be at it's worse around election time, and squashing safe methods of voting will deter a lot of people.

This is what trump can do at the federal level. In case you missed it, he'd also like to shut down the USPS for a brief and convenient time. His scheduled Tulsa rally is going to give covid a kick in the pants...that's a feature, not a bug. Trump's base is verging on pro-pandemic...and trump has never cared about anybody except his base.

He's not going to shut down the USPS for the election. There's a lot more stuff that goes through the mail that ballots and that would cause an uproar and even economic problems - a lot of people still pay bills by mail.

[Grifman]

BTW, Trump is +2 in Arkansas in the latest poll, a state he took by +27 in 2016. It's early but the signs are all there. They know Biden's a decent guy and they're tired of the s***show.