Octopus Overlords

malchior wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 12:55 pm I'm in a briefing on some of the Cyber aspects. Apparently the Russians have been stepping up attacks on UA infrastructure now.

Is “UA” United Airlines? You’re using an initialism that’s unfamiliar to me.

The Meal wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 1:19 pm

malchior wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 12:55 pm I'm in a briefing on some of the Cyber aspects. Apparently the Russians have been stepping up attacks on UA infrastructure now.

Is “UA” United Airlines? You’re using an initialism that’s unfamiliar to me.

Yeah - that is the IT guy in me. UA is short-hand for Ukraine - it's from their web domain. I expect we'll see it become ubiquitous over the coming days and weeks.

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 1:15 pm

hepcat wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 12:54 pm

Grifman wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 12:47 pm Now for the first time a majority of Finns support joining NATO:

https://yle.fi/news/3-12337202

In a sense it doesn’t matter. Both Sweden and Finland were recently invited to the NATO summit on the Ukraine invasion and both have been closely cooperating with NATO, even holding joint exercises in recent years. But still . . .

I just can't wrap my mind around Putin doing something that appears to be backfiring on him on such a monumental level. There has to be a different endgame here for him. That or I've vastly overestimated his intelligence.

He may have vastly overestimated the damage his puppet had done.

NATO (and non-NATO) nations came together relatively quickly despite our previous administration's attempts to break them up.

I also have to wonder what will be reaction from a guy who has spent his entire political career developing the image of an alpha male to end all alpha males facing a spanking on the international stage. Would it be enough to drive him over the edge?

hepcat wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 1:27 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 1:15 pm

hepcat wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 12:54 pm

Grifman wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 12:47 pm Now for the first time a majority of Finns support joining NATO:

https://yle.fi/news/3-12337202

In a sense it doesn’t matter. Both Sweden and Finland were recently invited to the NATO summit on the Ukraine invasion and both have been closely cooperating with NATO, even holding joint exercises in recent years. But still . . .

I just can't wrap my mind around Putin doing something that appears to be backfiring on him on such a monumental level. There has to be a different endgame here for him. That or I've vastly overestimated his intelligence.

He may have vastly overestimated the damage his puppet had done.

NATO (and non-NATO) nations came together relatively quickly despite our previous administration's attempts to break them up.

I also have to wonder what will be reaction from a guy who has spent his entire political career developing the image of an alpha male to end all alpha males facing a spanking on the international stage. Would it be enough to drive him over the edge?

That is my worry too. I just hope there are enough checks in place in the Kremlin that if he goes "Fuck it, if I can't win then no one can" that someone will stop him. That was one of our fears with Trump but we had more faith in the Pentagon stopping a nutcase than I do with the Kremlin given how Putin has removed those that opposed him

Re Hepcat’s comment: Yes.

Part of me is so happy to see Putin embarrassed, but there’s a voice in the back of my head also saying I should be careful what I wish for. I’m definitely in the “concerned” camp when it comes to thinking about what Putin’s next move will be, especially as we essentially nuke the Russian economy.

I completely agree it would be absurd to think Putin would use nukes of any type. But I also feel like we’re in the land of the absurd right now. Also, I don’t understand the idea that Putin is going to show restraint because he doesn’t want to damage Ukraine too much. He wants Ukraine as a buffer between him and NATO. Does it really matter if that buffer is a functioning country or an obliterated husk the size of Texas? Having a puppet government installed would certainly be his first choice, but if that’s no longer attainable . . .

hepcat wrote:I just can't wrap my mind around Putin doing something that appears to be backfiring on him on such a monumental level. There has to be a different endgame here for him. That or I've vastly overestimated his intelligence.

If you're in an ever-shrinking echo chamber, you're making decisions based on what your yes men want you to hear, not on reality. That's my theory as to what is happening. It may not be that Putin is bad at chess. It may be that he thinks he's playing a different game entirely.

malchior wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 1:22 pm

The Meal wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 1:19 pm

malchior wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 12:55 pm I'm in a briefing on some of the Cyber aspects. Apparently the Russians have been stepping up attacks on UA infrastructure now.

Is “UA” United Airlines? You’re using an initialism that’s unfamiliar to me.

Yeah - that is the IT guy in me. UA is short-hand for Ukraine - it's from their web domain. I expect we'll see it become ubiquitous over the coming days and weeks.

It's been ubiquitous enough lately for it to sink in. All over rally signs and hashtags.


Speaking of rallies, saw an F150 with an American flag and Ukrainian flag in the I90 convoy photos. Made my head hurt but I liked it.

IceBear wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 1:33 pm That was one of our fears with Trump but we had more faith in the Pentagon stopping a nutcase than I do with the Kremlin given how Putin has removed those that opposed him

Speaking of Trump, I have to agree that were he still president, America wouldn't be involved in this. Which is a pretty damning thing and NOT praise. He would've nixed the majority of the sanctions. And he would've seen everyone else doing so as a sign that he should double down on his resistance because...globalists?

hepcat wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 1:42 pm

IceBear wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 1:33 pm That was one of our fears with Trump but we had more faith in the Pentagon stopping a nutcase than I do with the Kremlin given how Putin has removed those that opposed him

Speaking of Trump, I have to agree that were he still president, America wouldn't be involved in this. Which is a pretty damning thing and NOT praise. He would've nixed the majority of the sanctions. And he would've seen everyone else doing so as a sign that he should double down on his resistance because...globalists?

He would have telegraphed non-involvement and UA would have had to go to the bargaining table to give up territory before the Superbowl.

hepcat wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 1:42 pm Speaking of Trump, I have to agree that were he still president, America wouldn't be involved in this. Which is a pretty damning thing and NOT praise. He would've nixed the majority of the sanctions. And he would've seen everyone else doing so as a sign that he should double down on his resistance because...globalists?

Socialist Europe getting involved in globalist empire building against the very smart Putin. They're sure to lose. Zelensky is so weak, he wouldn't even come clean about Hunter Biden and they just want our weapons without paying for them. Weak and not very smart. The US needs a better deal. This is a very bad deal. Vladimir Putin just wants to rebuild the USSR and the people love him for it. Very smart man.

hepcat wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 1:42 pm

IceBear wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 1:33 pm That was one of our fears with Trump but we had more faith in the Pentagon stopping a nutcase than I do with the Kremlin given how Putin has removed those that opposed him

Speaking of Trump, I have to agree that were he still president, America wouldn't be involved in this. Which is a pretty damning thing and NOT praise. He would've nixed the majority of the sanctions. And he would've seen everyone else doing so as a sign that he should double down on his resistance because...globalists?

Kasparov says this is decades in the making. We've appeased Putin every single time... why should this be any different? The west let him have the Crimea. They let him use chemical weapons in Syria.

And let's not kid ourselves. Had Germany decided natural gas was slightly more important, things probably wouldn't look so unified. What if more Republicans tried to pin this on Hunter Biden?

Things look bad for Putin, but it wouldn't have taken much to put it huge disarray.

All of that may be true, but it doesn't negate the veracity of my claim.

Although I do feel guilty for laughing at that.

Kurth wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 1:34 pmPart of me is so happy to see Putin embarrassed, but there’s a voice in the back of my head also saying I should be careful what I wish for. I’m definitely in the “concerned” camp when it comes to thinking about what Putin’s next move will be, especially as we essentially nuke the Russian economy.

This is where I'm at. Putin hasn't just been embarrassed--it's looking like this will be an historic ass-whooping for Russia' s economy. Further, even if (when?) Russia eventually has military success in Ukraine, Putin's (real | perceived) image as a strategic thinker / masculine macho man-meat man is gone. That Ukraine is doing as well as it is would be embarrassment enough--the destruction of Russia's economy and position on the world stage for decades to come rests on top of that.

I completely agree it would be absurd to think Putin would use nukes of any type. But I also feel like we’re in the land of the absurd right now.

Amen.

noxiousdog wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 2:05 pmKasparov says this is decades in the making. We've appeased Putin every single time... why should this be any different? The west let him have the Crimea. They let him use chemical weapons in Syria.

And let's not kid ourselves. Had Germany decided natural gas was slightly more important, things probably wouldn't look so unified. What if more Republicans tried to pin this on Hunter Biden?

Things look bad for Putin, but it wouldn't have taken much to put it huge disarray.

Also agreed, which cements Kurth's points above, IMO.

@hepcat - I think I quoted the wrong post. I agree with you.

@Daveman

noxiousdog wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 2:28 pm @hepcat - I think I quoted the wrong post. I agree with you.

Ah, got it.

On the 'is Putin a rational actor?' question:

Things aren’t necessarily great on the home from NT in drumming up support for the war:

The Russians screwed up and accidentally posted their justification and future intent for Ukraine. Interesting thread but I’ll sum it up as “The Empire Strikes Back”;

FIFA bans Russia from competition.

Zaxxon wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 2:23 pm

Kurth wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 1:34 pmPart of me is so happy to see Putin embarrassed, but there’s a voice in the back of my head also saying I should be careful what I wish for. I’m definitely in the “concerned” camp when it comes to thinking about what Putin’s next move will be, especially as we essentially nuke the Russian economy.

This is where I'm at. Putin hasn't just been embarrassed--it's looking like this will be an historic ass-whooping for Russia' s economy. Further, even if (when?) Russia eventually has military success in Ukraine, Putin's (real | perceived) image as a strategic thinker / masculine macho man-meat man is gone. That Ukraine is doing as well as it is would be embarrassment enough--the destruction of Russia's economy and position on the world stage for decades to come rests on top of that.

I completely agree it would be absurd to think Putin would use nukes of any type. But I also feel like we’re in the land of the absurd right now.

Amen.

noxiousdog wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 2:05 pmKasparov says this is decades in the making. We've appeased Putin every single time... why should this be any different? The west let him have the Crimea. They let him use chemical weapons in Syria.

And let's not kid ourselves. Had Germany decided natural gas was slightly more important, things probably wouldn't look so unified. What if more Republicans tried to pin this on Hunter Biden?

Things look bad for Putin, but it wouldn't have taken much to put it huge disarray.

Also agreed, which cements Kurth's points above, IMO.

One huge concern here is that Putin has zero ways to really back down. He's trapped in being committed to the Invasion now. There really is no face-saving way to significantly de-escalate, and that is going to be very dicey.

IMHO, the only way out for Russia is regime change, and that may actually be worse than where we are now.

I've been thinking along the same lines, Pyperkub. I see zero outcomes where this doesn't end in either regime change or some drastic escalation of the war.

I mean, even if Putin just said, "Whoops, my bad" and pulled all his troops and tried to reset everything back to the way it was, it's not like NATO's going to call no harm, no foul, reinstate all of Russia's finances, and pretend none of this ever happened.

Pyperkub wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:32 pm One huge concern here is that Putin has zero ways to really back down. He's trapped in being committed to the Invasion now. There really is no face-saving way to significantly de-escalate, and that is going to be very dicey.

IMHO, the only way out for Russia is regime change, and that may actually be worse than where we are now.

He certainly has options - one of them being complete and total withdrawal. Saying that he has zero ways is not the case at all.
Now will he take the options? That is another story all together.

Jaymann wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 2:59 pm FIFA bans Russia from competition.

They'd have been banned from the Olympics too had they pulled this shit a few weeks ago.

I thought it was funny yesterday on MTP when Chucky-boy asked if Putin might have a "Julius Caesar moment" in the future, where his favorite oligarchs pull out daggers and perforate the bastard. The talking head he was addressing was of the opinion he would not allow any but best asslickers anywhere near him right now.

Roman wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:42 pm

Pyperkub wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:32 pm One huge concern here is that Putin has zero ways to really back down. He's trapped in being committed to the Invasion now. There really is no face-saving way to significantly de-escalate, and that is going to be very dicey.

IMHO, the only way out for Russia is regime change, and that may actually be worse than where we are now.

He certainly has options - one of them being complete and total withdrawal. Saying that he has zero ways is not the case at all.
Now will he take the options? That is another story all together.

Complete and total withdrawal could easily imperil his regime. There are no shortage of dictators brought down by failed wars. So he'll definitely want something that he can tout as a win, even if it's a transparent fiction.

YellowKing wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:39 pm I've been thinking along the same lines, Pyperkub. I see zero outcomes where this doesn't end in either regime change or some drastic escalation of the war.

I mean, even if Putin just said, "Whoops, my bad" and pulled all his troops and tried to reset everything back to the way it was, it's not like NATO's going to call no harm, no foul, reinstate all of Russia's finances, and pretend none of this ever happened.

Wait. are you talking about regime change in Russia?

Jaymann wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 2:59 pm FIFA bans Russia from competition.

It's important to note the FIFA only did this after massive, crippling financial sanctions.

FIFA is still as corrupt as it ever was. If Russia still had money to include them in the grift, Russia would still be in the World Cup.

How "separate" are those separatist regions? Before this I had not followed Ukraine at all. Is it something where he could withdraw to those areas and Ukraine would be happy to have the regions out of the country? Or was the fighting there mostly the stuff of Russian fiction?

El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:50 pm Complete and total withdrawal could easily imperil his regime. There are no shortage of dictators brought down by failed wars. So he'll definitely want something that he can tout as a win, even if it's a transparent fiction.

I really think the only way this ends well is if someone takes out Putin. There is simply no scenario where he admits, "my bad...we're withdrawing."

Defiant wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:53 pm

Could they also agree to never join NATO? It's not like they were getting in anytime soon anyway, from what I've read.

No, Zelensky would have to resign, and he's a national hero right now so that'll never happen. How damaging would it be to their national pride were he to do so?

I hope (and think) that they will not have much to give him. They shouldn't tie their own hands (via a promise of no NATO or no EU), and they shouldn't give them any land, etc.
Of course, I have nothing to lose - but from what I see on all these videos, these people are not ready to roll over for Putin. This is exactly why I do worry that Putin (having no Save-game to load), will indeed maybe do something unthinkable.

I would imagine that Ukraine would be willing to agree to some sort of "neutral" status, and/or to not join NATO / the EU for some defined time. The former wouldn't mean much in practice, and on the latter I'm not sure that Ukraine is likely to be admitted to either in the near future, and at some point down the line Ukraine could just do it anyway once the situation was favorable enough for them.

Beyond that, the tougher questions would be Crimea and the separatist regions. Ukraine could recognize Russia's seizure of Crimea, which would be painful but if it got them real peace (which would be hard to judge) then....maybe they think about it? The separatist regions would I think be harder...maybe they'd be willing to recognize some vague 'autonomy' for the regions but hard to see Ukraine willing to let them go full stop.

I'm thinking Zelensky doesn't make it until Friday, if as reported, there are hundreds (?!) of assassin bounty-hunting for him right now?

Sounds like the plot of John Wick.

I suppose recognizing Russia's seizure of Crimea could perhaps be one thing I see giving Putin here, but that would probably be hard to stomach as well.